Morning Brew Daily - Apple Finally Joins AI Arms Race & Real Estate LOVES Restaurants

Episode Date: June 11, 2024

Episode 341: Neal and Toby recap Apple’s most important annual Worldwide Developer Conference where many expected AI to be the central theme..and it sure delivered. Then, another activist investor is on the offensive, but this time they've got their sights on Southwest Airlines. Next, French President Emmanuel Macron calls for a snap election that has the whole European stock market shook. Also, the restaurant industry is bouncing back furiously with millennials dining out more and making sure they get the perfect photo of their food for their Insta. Meanwhile, perhaps the biggest symbol of WeWork’s demise: a co-working competitor takes over its headquarters in New York. Lastly, Martha’s Vineyard has a cannabis problem due to a large body of water… Literally.  Download the Yahoo Finance App (on the Play and App store) for real-time alerts on news and insights tailored to your portfolio and stock watchlists. 00:00 - Songs of Summer 2:50 - Apple’s AI moment 7:45 - Southwest may be overhauled 11:50 - French snap elections shocks Europe 15:05 - Toby’s Trends: restaurants 17:30 - WeWork gets the WeWork treatment 20:45 - Martha’s Vineyard’s weed problem Get your Morning Brew Daily Mug HERE: https://shop.morningbrew.com/products/morning-brew-daily-mug?utm_medium=youtube&utm_source=mbd&utm_campaign=mug Listen to Morning Brew Daily Here: https://link.chtbl.com/MBD Watch Morning Brew Daily Here: https://www.youtube.com/@MorningBrewDailyShow Options are not suitable for all investors and carry significant risk. Option investors can rapidly lose the value of their investment in a short period of time and incur permanent loss by expiration date. Certain complex options strategies carry additional risk.  Investors must review the Options Disclosure Document (ODD): public.com/ODD. See Fee Schedule and Options Rebate & Referral T&Cs: public.com/disclosures. Brokerage services for US-listed securities and options offered through Public Investing, member FINRA & SIPC.  See terms of the Options Rebate Program. Rebate rates vary from $0.06-$0.18 and may depend on time of enrollment and number of referrals. Rates are subject to change at any time. All investing involves the risk of loss, including loss of principal. Brokerage services for US-listed, registered securities, options and bonds in a self-directed account are offered by Public Investing., member FINRA & SIPC. See public.com/#disclosures-main for more information. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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Good morning, Brew, Daily Show. I'm Neil Fryman. And I'm Toby Howell. Today, Apple showed up fashionably late to the AI party, but can it catch up to the level of everyone else? Then Southwest Airlines has been in a funk, but an activist investor thinks it knows how to turn the plane around. It's Tuesday, June 11th. Let's ride. Toby, first of all, welcome back.

Thank you. We're in mid-June. Temps are heating up. Backyard parties are popping up everywhere, which means it's once again time to have the annual debate. the what is the song of the summer for 2024? I will tell you what, it's not, and it's not espresso by Sabrina Carpenter. It just doesn't do it for me. I do like her new single, please, please, please.

It's a lot better. But I'm going to go with Good Luck, Babe, by Chapel Rhone. I've recently gone on the Chapel Rhone hype train, and it's just impeccable vibes. That's what I want out of a song of summer. I want it to be, it should evoke sunshine, it should evoke having good time outside. So mine is good luck, babe. is a great song. I'm still going with espresso because I really

like that song. A sleeper pick from me is also 360 by Charlie XX, offer new album Brat. And I've been listening to that album. And let me tell you, it should not be allowed to be listened to before 1 a.m. It is just serious club bangers non-stop.

One after another. I was listening to it while prepping for this show like at midday yesterday. I was like, I really should not be listening to this because I need to get to a dance floor right now. But if you want to dance, that album is for you. And then the third under the radar pick is just the entire Challenger's album, which I do prep to this show too.

So if I am very hyped in the morning, you know why. Now let's hear a word from our purple prints, our sponsor, Yahoo Finance. Neil, there was a major milestone in my browser the other day. You know how when you type a letter into the URL, it suggests websites? Well, when I type F, finance.yahu.com is the first thing that pops up, taking over the top spot from Fantasy Premier League. The Premier League has been over for a month now, so I would hope so. Yahoo Finance should remain unchallenged until at least what, September.

Then fantasy football might retake the throne. I don't know. I can see the purple prints holding out, especially with all the crazy market news, from Roaring Kitty live streams to upheaval in the European markets, which we'll talk about later. I've been typing F into my search bar a lot recently. Yahoo Finance is the place to stay on top of everything, providing the tools and info you need to make financial decisions confidently.

Although, Toby, just bookmark it. yourself some typing. I'm not a bookmark guy. Okay. I like my methods. If you want some more Yahoo finance in your life, download the Yahoo Finance app app store for real-time alerts on news and insights, Taylor, to your portfolio. It's time to refresh your yard during spring backyard days at the Home Depot. Get low prices guaranteed on propane grills starting at $179, like the next grill three burner gas grill or get $50 off a select Weber Spirit grill and bring big flavor to your backyard. Then set the scene with Hampton Bay string lights that bring it all together. Shop spring backyard days for seven days at the Home Depot. Now through May 6th. Exclusion supplies to

home depot.com slash price match for details. Was Ricky Bobby wrong to say if you ain't first, your last? Apple sure hopes so because yesterday at its developer conference, it rolled out much typed AI features coming to your devices months and years after its competitors did. Introducing Apple intelligence, Apple's flavor of generative AI that it hopes will change the way you use your phone and computers. Specifically, it hopes to make accomplishing tasks a lot easier. At the heart of this push is an upgraded Siri, a voice assistant that will be more useful than just telling you the weather. You can speak and chat with Siri like a normal person, and it'll remember previous conversations.

It has new ability is to dive into your apps and grab information hidden in emails. It can scan the photos app to grab pictures of you smiling with a fish for your dating app profile. And when it can't accomplish what you wanted to, it'll send you to chat GPT

through a new Apple partnership with OpenAI. There were a lot more announcements we can chat about in a sec. But just stepping back, analysts called this the most important day for Apple since the release of the iPhone in 2007. phone sales have stagnated, innovation has been lacking, and everyone's been searching for the next big thing. Toby, is this it? Is this the next big thing?

Yeah, this was a very important developer conference for Apple because they did need to impress with their AI plans. And I think they did. And you mentioned the Ricky Bobby quote, but I reminded of a scene from Princess Diaries where the Queen of Genovia says, a queen is never late. Everyone else is simply early. That's how I think Apple has been approaching the AI race. This is how it rolls when it comes to most trends. They make sure they get it right. They make sure that they do it, put their Apple stamp on it.

And a lot of people have been saying AI's is potential disruptor to Apple's kind of hedgemany over the hardware market. But AI is definitely a compliment to Apple's business. And I think that's what we saw here. They're integrating it in in a way that feels very appellee. And I liked a lot of what they said. Right. It is very aptly.

I mean, Apple has a tendency to not adopt the same language as everyone else. in the market in order to differentiate itself and say, hey, we're doing things to Appleway, which is often a focus on security. When it rolled out the Vision Pro headset, again, not the first company to roll out a virtual reality headset. But they didn't call it virtual reality. They called it spatial computing. And in the same way, they're not calling this artificial intelligence.

They're calling it Apple intelligence, which somehow has the same first two letters. So it's kind of the same thing. But again, they're putting their spin on it. They put a big emphasis on security by saying a lot of the. AI computing is happening on device rather than on the cloud. And when it needs to go to the cloud for those very heavy computational things like chat GPT is doing, then it'll be on a secure server and Apple will not take any of your information. That led to Elon Musk saying maybe that he would ban Apple devices of any employees at his companies. Well, we don't know whether that's a

real threat or not. But definitely the security conversation is one Apple wants to own. Yeah. Let's dive into the upgraded Siri assistant because you're right. For so many years Siri has just basically been a place to check the weather, maybe set reminders, set alarms. And I do think like the holy grail for an AI assistant is one that you can interact with via voice that has enough

access to your personal data like your calendar, like your messages, like your email, to actually be helpful. And it does look like Siri is positioned to be that. I mean, the example that they cited in their presentation was maybe your mom is coming in on a flight. You can ask Siri like, hey,

What flight is my mom arriving at? Then you can ask Siri where your lunch reservation is. Stuff like that is actually a game changer because that would have taken multiple text messages, sorting through your inbox, seeing the email that your mom forwarded to you, maybe even a call to your mother. I mean, you should always call your mother. But Siri, if it has access to your unique ecosystem, then it can actually be helpful, which feels like it's been a long time coming, but it seems like Siri's about to get a massive upgrade.

The big question here is, will these AI upgrades lead to people upgrading their phone and buying new phones because people have been holding on to their iPhones longer than ever. In Q1, Apple posted a 10% drop in year-over-year iPhone sales. So it needs people to start buying new iPhones, and a lot of these AI capabilities are only coming to the iPhone 15 or later they're going to introduce the iPhone 16 later this year or the most advanced computers that they rolled out. So people aren't buying new iPhones. Will they buy new iPhones upgrade from the 13 or the 14 to the 15 or the 16?

because they have an advance here. I think that is the main question, and that will lead to the next wave of growth for Apple, because right now sales are falling or stagnating. Its stock price has lagged behind its peers like Microsoft and Google. So that's the big question here. Will you buy a new iPhone to get a better Siri? I think the answer might be yes. Southwest has long been known as a budget-friendly airline where you pick your own seats and bags fly free, but Elliott Investment Management thinks that Southwest's management is flying the plane in the wrong direction. The activist investor has built up a nearly $2 billion stake that it is wielding to

criticize the company's outdated strategies and poor execution. And Elliott does have a point. After 47 years of consecutive profits, things have gone more south than West since the pandemic. Southwest, long known as customer-friendly, suffered a major reputation hit after a combination of bad weather and overwhelmed technology systems led to a big outage in 2022. And its stock has suffered as well down by more than half in the past three years. It's currently trading lower right now than where it traded in March of 2020. Elliot wrote a letter outlining its plan to turn things around, which involves freshening up the board with new blood and modernizing company that exhibits a, quote,

stubborn unwillingness to evolve. Neil, the stock had its biggest single day gain since November 2020, so people are clearly excited about this injection of new blood. This is exactly about fresh blood because the two guys that have run Southwest, have been at the company since the 1980s. Bob Jordan, who's the current CEO, and then Gary Kelly, who was the CEO for many years before that, they have adopted a very rigid approach to running this airline,

and maybe that's worked in the past. I mean, they have the same plane, a Boeing 737. They do not have different boarding classes. They haven't given an opportunity to sell more to customers. I mean, that's Retail 101. When you go buy a pizza, they ask, do you want a soda with that, right? But Southwest does not do that. Meanwhile, the rest of the airline industry has started to do that. You have all these different seating options. You can pay more for, I mean, you have to pay more to check a bag.

You have to pay more to get an upgraded seat. Southwest has been so stubborn, rigid in its business model. And maybe that's worked, you know, previously. But, you know, Elliot is one of many investors to say, look, you got to innovate with the times. And you're not squeezing as much money from consumers as you could possibly be. Yeah, Southwest does have a Boeing issue. Let's dive. in onto that point. For years now, Southwest has been able to keep maintenance costs very low because they fly the exact same type of plan, the Boeing 737, which is notorious right now because obviously Boeing's had a lot of issues with those deliveries. And in March, Southwest said it was going to have to reevaluate its entire financial outlook because it's getting less Jets, Boeing jets than expected. Its shares fell 15% on that news. And until Boeing can work out its supply chain, Southwest's growth prospects are going to be severely consent. constrained because unless it opens it up to newer and different models of planes, then it's going to be constrained by Boeing, which is never what you want as a company to be at the mercy completely of Boeing. Yeah, let's talk about just activist investing in general because there definitely

was a surge in that this year. We had Nelson Peltz with his big proxy battle against Disney that he lost. He tried to get board seats. Elliot does this at, and it's so weird to say Elliot, but it's actually an investment firm. It's not an actual person. Elliot does this at many companies. took a state in Texas stake in Texas instruments and maybe it wants it to roll out TI 95 or something. I don't know exactly what that is, what's going on over there. But they tried to push for changes at companies. It can eventually lead to a bitter board battle where they take their pitch directly

to shareholders. Elliott typically does not do that. They bully companies into submission kind of right away where companies do take changes, like maybe changing up the chairman and the CEO. doesn't look like Southwest may do that, but that's Elliott's game plan, is to take a big stake. And they are one of the largest shareholders in Southwest right now, a $2 billion stake. This is a $16 billion company.

So that's a lot of voting shares right there, and they're going to push for changes that they want to see. And Elliott has done well with their activism. Companies that they've built stakes in that have replaced their CEOs recently are Crown Castle, which is a big wireless tower owner, NRG, energy, and then Goodyear Tire. So those are three companies that have kind of bowed to Elliott's will. so we'll see if Southwest is going to be the fourth. We're just about halfway through the biggest election year in history,

but Sunday night's results from the EU Parliament elections may have sent the biggest message of all. Far right and populist parties scored major gains in the block, while French President Emmanuel Macron's party got trounced so badly by the far right that he stunningly dissolved parliament and called for snap elections. Investors did not take this news in stride. European stocks and bonds fell across the board, while the euro tumbled to its lowest level against the U.S. dollar in a month,

French banks got pummeled the most of any sector because more populous leaders have been known to target them with regulations like windfall taxes. Zooming out, the results of the European elections show the continent's voters moving to the right, voicing their displeasure with inflation, slower economic growth and immigration. Among the many consequences of the shift is to potentially put some of the EU's most ambitious climate plans, such as the European Green Deal that targets net zero emissions by 2050 on ice. Toby, all of Europe is trying to make sense of what happened this weekend, but it's really France, the world's seventh largest economy that's at the epicenter of this

earthquake. Yeah, this uncertainty is just rattling a bunch of markets. The fear is that if Macron is forced into this weak position and it forces them to govern a hostile government, it would just make everything more difficult. It's very hard to pursue a policy agenda when you have a hostile parliament, hard to get the government's finances back on track to. which is something else that kind of roiled the markets. Let's talk about why bank stocks in particular, though, worse, hit so hard. Essentially, populist parties often portray banks as almost part of the elite establishment

that they are railing against. They're seen as these powerful institutions that they're prioritizing profits over the interests of ordinary citizens. So it has long been a rallying cry in, honestly, a industry that populist movements target. And so that's why bank stocks were sliding the most. even as the overall market slid as well. Yeah, and we've been charting this populist rise in Europe for a long time. I don't know, remember, was it last year earlier this year? We talked about the farmers' protests, and they were protesting,

more integration into the EU and these climate policies that required farmers to take a more green stance on their particular processes or the way they're doing things, and that was just too fast for a lot of them. So they blockaded a ton of roads and put a lot of pressure on not just the French government, but governments across Europe. So we're looking forward to this election in France. I don't know if we're looking forward to because Macron's probably scared, but it is a gambit to say whether he can hold on to power here

or there will be a parliament that puts him in opposition and blocks a lot of the things that he wants to do. You know, it's not the only election that's coming up. The UK has a big election coming up for the first time in five years in on July 4th of all times. And Rishi Sunak, the conservatives, they've been in power since 2010. and they could also see their power slide out from under them to the Labor Party. That would be a shift to the left for the UK. But there are a lot of elections coming up. Investors don't like uncertainty.

And then the biggest one of all, of course, is in November in the United States. Up next, all of a sudden, restaurants are the hottest corner of the real estate market. Hey, honey, it's mom. Did you know if we switch to Verizon, we can get four phones for $0, plus four lines for $25 a line? Call me back. Me again. That's just $100 a month.

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Oh, you want to hear about why restaurants are suddenly a real estate darling? Sure, you want fries with that too? Oh, broccoli, I see you leaving room for dessert. But yes, today's edition of Toby's Trans where I comb the internet for. trend you should have your eye on is all about the restaurant industries glow up. According to a Wall Street Journal article, food services accounted for more than 19% of all retail leases last year. That's the biggest piece of the retail pie ever recorded for a single category since statistics were kept starting in 2007. Why are there so many restaurants everywhere? Well,

the demand is there. The average American household spent over half their food budget on food away from home last year, up 10 percentage points since 2003, and total restaurant sales are on track to top $1.1 trillion this year, up 5.3% from last year's highs. Neil, the big story here, though, is how landlords feel about restaurants. They used to kind of hate them because restaurants can fail and their buildouts are often pricey, but now they love them. It's a steady bet, and I think people are just realizing in this post-COVID world, dining out, eating at a restaurant is just fun as hell. It's so fun. You don't have to make, you don't have to make, you don't have to make food, you don't have to clean up anything, and people bring food to you, get to sit with

your friends, you got to drink, you get to have a great time in a lovely atmosphere. I think people are just realizing that going to a restaurant is so freaking fun. Another point of this that wasn't mentioned, and I think is very key, is that grocery inflation. People are going to the grocery store saying, wow, I could make this elaborate meal at home, not even an elaborate meal, just mac and cheese, Annie's mac and cheese, but look at the price. It's so expensive. I could just go out for maybe a dollar or two dollars more than make food at home. And I think that is also driving a lot of this restaurant spending that we're seeing. Two other data points, too, foodie culture is at an all-time high.

TikTok is just supercharged. Everything, essentially, like a new hot restaurant hits TikTok and becomes even hotter. But another interesting data point, too, is that millennials are marrying later and having kids later. And single households are less likely to grocery shop than family. So that has led to an increase in restaurant spending in recent years, according to analysts. So that's a very interesting second-order effect. is that people are remaining single for longer, and you're right, it is more fun. I'm sure parents listen to your restaurants are so freaking fun spiel there and said,

well, not when you have screaming children around. So the fact that millennials are starting families later has led to a mini restaurant boom as well. WeWork's former New York City headquarters has been taken over by someone else, and you'll never guess what it is. Another co-working company. Industrius signed a 10-year agreement to manage office space at Tower 49 in mid-tenth. Manhattan, scooping it up from WeWork, which just emerged from bankruptcy, and is shedding many of those expensive long-term leases that bled it dry. The symbolism smacks you straight in the

face. WeWorks collapse doesn't necessarily reflect the health of the broader co-working sector. Industrious, for example, tripled revenues in the last four years, and sales are growing at a 40% annual rate. It said it looked at more than 70 takeovers of former WeWork sites, but this one on 49th Street was the perfect building, perfect location. to build a mega site for experimentation. But I can't help but wonder whether they wanted this space just a little more as a physical emblem of their victory over Adam Newman.

Yeah, we've been talking about this trend on the show for a while now. This feels like it should be the golden years for we work. Landlords definitely want flexible options in their building and helps them compete with other office buildings. Workers certainly want some flexible off space because going full-time work from home from your apartment just ain't it. there's demand on both sides, and clearly, Industrius has picked up on that. It is extremely ironic, and yes, you said it slapped you in the face because WeWork should have been capitalizing on this

moment right now because demand is so high, but instead it's its competitors that are capitalizing instead. Well, Industrius has a completely different business model than WeWork, and they've been triding WeWork for their business model for a long time saying this is not sustainable. WeWork took out these long-term leases from landlords and then offered them to tenants on very short-term leases, that were very dynamic and you didn't know demand was very fluctuating. We were in a WeWRour, Morning Brew was in a WeWork one day in 2017, then we weren't in a WeWork a few months later. So the gap between these long-term leases, very, very expensive and the short-term tenants

that you're offering them to as a sub-lease is just didn't, obviously, did not work out for We-Work. Industrious instead partners with landlords as a sort of real estate operations manager and manages the space for them. and then they do a profit or a rev share, and that de-risks or shares the risks of these long-term spaces a lot compared to WeWorks. So, Industrius has been hammering this for the past decade,

saying this is the way to do it. It's much less risky than the We-Works model, and then they're proving themselves out by literally taking over WeWorks headquarters. Another company I want to call out in the co-working space is called Work Simple, and they are targeting older office buildings in secondary or tertiary markets.

So instead of buying WeWorks flagship location in New York City, they go snap up the kind of zombie office buildings in smaller markets like San Antonio or Omaha because a lot of people in the kind of the suburbs do also want to get out of the house. Again, full-time work from home while it's great for flexibility, people do want to still work in an office space. So I think that there's a lot, a lot of people look at co-working as kind of this monolithic industry, but there are tons of smaller players with each their own unique wedge into the market. And Work Simple is another name. I think you should keep an eye on.

Martha's Vineyard is running out of marijuana. No, a group of college kids with a case of the Monchees didn't suddenly descend upon the Massachusetts Island and buy up all its stock. The problem comes from the fact that it's a Massachusetts island. Despite marijuana being legal in mass for seven years now, the state's Cannabis Control Commission supports a position that transporting cannabis across the ocean by plane or boat might run the risk of violating federal laws. So even though there are routes to Martha's Vineyard that stay fully within the state, the state's waters, the two dispensaries on the island are slowly running out of supplies. If nothing else changes, Martha's Vineyard will look like the Garden of Eden come September,

completely weedless. Neil, there was a small growing operation on the island, but the economics and regulatory environment were tough and it made plans to shut down. So right now, it's looking dire for citizens on the island, especially the 230-plus registered medical users. Yeah, I never thought about transporting marijuana before or the fact that Martha's venue would have to have a homegrown industry to supply pot for its residents there, especially the ones that are on a medical prescription.

But this is just another factor of the fact that it's illegal federally. It's legal in some states. Then when you get out into the open water, it's a huge question mark. People on Martha's Vineyard saying figure it out, Massachusetts, figure it out, because a lot of other states that have islands have figured it out. I'm thinking of Hawaii and California. expressly allows the transport of cannabis from the mainland to Catalina Island. And then in Alaska, a very interesting case where a lot of places are inaccessible by roads.

They allow it by transport by plane because the airports are owned by the state. So you have cannabis owners going into areas where they're picking up their supply and then literally putting in their carry-on, putting it on the plane, and then taking it back to their dispensary that they cannot drive to. So it's very interesting to see this patchwork of state laws that have, created these carve-outs for inaccessible places, island places in the absence of federal regulation. There was a sole commercial owner on Martha's Vineyard. It was this company called Fine Fettle, and they thought that they had solved it.

They were basically had a monopoly over the market. They were talking to AP and said, quite frankly, we thought this was a good thing that it was so difficult to transport marijuana across federal waterways because it literally was a moat for them. The island is surrounded by water. But eventually it just became, just since marijuana prices have come down a little bit, a little bit. The testing environment has just become so pricey that it just didn't make sense to grow on the island anymore. So with that shutting down, there's two dispensaries on the island. One has essentially completely run out of stock. The other says we have until September.

So it's a little bit of a dire situation. Some officials were saying, should we declare a health emergency? because people do rely on it for medical needs. So it's very interesting, and we'll see there's a big vote that comes up Thursday, and we'll provide more clarity around if they can figure this out. So if you're heading to Martha's Vineyard this summer, and I really want to, you should probably bring your own stuff. Okay, that's all the time we have for today.

Thanks so much for listening and have a wonderful Tuesday. You've got any feedback on the show. Send an email to Morning Brew Daily at Morningbrew.com. Let's roll the credits. Emily Milliron is our executive producer. Raymond Liu is our producer. Olivia Graham is our associate producer. Eugenio Ogu is our technical director. Billy Minino is on audio, hair and makeup is making an emergency pot run to Martha's Vineyard.

Devin Emery is our chief content officer and our show is a production of Morning Brew. Great show today, Neil. Let's run it back tomorrow. Aw. Pay off your home. Travel for life. Drive a Ferrari. In celebration of the world premiere of the Monopoly Big Board Buckslot machine by Aristocrat Gaming, Yamava Resort and Casino at San Manuel is giving one person a $1.6 million $10 dream package, the biggest prize in Yamava's history. Club Serrano members can earn daily instant prizes and secure a spot in the finale May 29th. Don't pass go and own it all.

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