Morning Brew Daily - ‘Big Short’ Investor Calls it Quits & Cannabis Products Up in Smoke?

Episode Date: November 14, 2025

Episode 714: Toby and Ann chat about Michael Burry, famed ‘Big Short’ investor, who has been public about the resemblance between the housing bubble of 2008 and the AI boom of today. Then, congress was able to reopen the government, but snuck in a provision that places tighter restrictions on hemp products that could upend the hemp industry. Plus, Cisco Systems, the once darling of the 2000s, is seeing a resurgence thanks to a wave of AI-related demand. Meanwhile, speculative tech stocks have tanked in the last month. And, Robinhood is bringing cash to your door and Uber is taking skiers to the slopes.  Learn more at usbank.com/splitcard  Listen to Ann's show, Brew Markets, every weekday afternoon: ⁠swap.fm/l/brewmarketsshow Get your MBD live show tickets here! https://www.tinyurl.com/MBD-HOLIDAY  Subscribe to Morning Brew Daily for more of the news you need to start your day. Share the show with a friend, and leave us a review on your favorite podcast app. Listen to Morning Brew Daily Here:⁠ ⁠⁠https://www.swap.fm/l/mbd-note⁠⁠⁠  Watch Morning Brew Daily Here:⁠ ⁠⁠https://www.youtube.com/@MorningBrewDailyShow⁠ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Many employees can't afford a hefty medical bill that pops up out of the blue, but it happens. And employees who are financially stressed are, understandably, more likely to be distracted at work, costing their employers greatly in lost productivity. Luckily, AFLAQ plans help with out-of-pocket expenses not covered by health insurance and can be offered at no direct cost to businesses. Learn more at aflac.com slash morning brewdaily. That's aflack.com slash morning brew daily. Good morning brew daily show. Howell? And I'm Ann Barry. Today, why is Michael Burry of Big Short Fame shutting down his fund?

And Pepsi going naked on its snacks. It's Friday, November 14th. Let's ride. Good morning and happy Friday. I have a willy specific story to start this morning show. A 19-year-old college kid named Oscar Delate just set the world record for the longest wheelie in human history. Now, Anne, a right of passage for every kid is trying to rip that front time. up and pop a wheelie, if only for a few seconds. But Oscar did it for six and a half hours, traveling 93 miles in the process. He went 752 unbroken laps around an indoor track

before finally collapsing and saying he was sore in one of very specific area. When Wall Street Journal columnist, Jason Gay tracked him down to ask why, he said, because it's fun. And of course that's why he did it. Wheelies are fun. I was literally going to ask what we thought the chafing situation was.

I'm glad you led with that. Toby. And also, let's just talk about how much of a record this is. It beat the last record by a whopping 43 miles. People are taking this really seriously. It was very serious thing. He said towards the end, he was, Jason Gay asked him, like, were you daydreaming or were like you thinking about something else? He's like, no, because I realized that it was getting intense. Like the record was coming up. And so he was locked in and focus. He could have watched both the Godfather one and the Godfather two back to back in that time. Instead, he wrote around a track for 752 miles. Time well spent. ask. Yeah, I must have gone wheelies high, just like runners high. Well, let now a word from our presenting sponsor, US Bank. With holiday shopping season just around the corner, folks are doing everything they can to stay on budget, including paying later when it makes sense. Introducing the US Bank Split World MasterCard, a new type of card that lets you pay later on every purchase. With the split card, all purchases are automatically divided into three payments in place into

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theater stage on April 30th, the powerful vocals of Demi Lovato on May 17th, and the signature Southern Country Rock of Eric Church on July 19th. Tickets on sale now at yamava Theater.com, only at Yamava Resort and Casino, celebrating its 40th anniversary. UN must be 21 to enter. Michael Burry made one big contrarian bet against the housing market in 2008 and was right. His latest contrarian bet, however, may have caused him to shudder his entire fund. Scion Capital, the $155 million investment fund, Burry used to make his infamous short, is no more after Burry terminated its registration status with the SEC. For months, Burry has gone after all the mega spenders in the AI buildout game, including Nvidia and Palantir, disclosing substantial short positions against both. And while he took to social media to clarify some narratives around his shorts, namely that they were only about a tenth of the size of the $920 million, some outlets.

it's reported, the deregistration comes as his bets against AI have taken some paper losses. What does a DREG entail? Burry might have shut things down completely and liquidated the fund. More likely, though, is he's trying to do away with public reporting because the quarterly 13F his fund has to file causes full-on media circuses with everyone pouring over his latest moves. Burry also posted to X on Wednesday saying, on to much better things, November 25th, so it looks like he'll be back soon. Either way, Sion is no more, Anne, but worth exploring is why

Burry is so bearish against the biggest AI names. What's he seeing that others maybe aren't? Yeah, so there's a couple of things that I found fascinating. And we talk about this a little bit in the brew market show. First of what, can we just talk about how iconic Michael Burry actually is? Okay, and this sounds ridiculous, but in the grand scheme of hedge fund world, $150 million,ish, as a fund size, is actually not that big, right? And yet everyone's looking to see what this one guy is doing. And he pulled a similar move, by the way, in 2008, when he predicted the housing crash and he just was dealing with investor pressure in all eyes and what he was doing.

So a couple of things. When it comes to Palantir, you know, I talked about this a bit in the past. Palantir is just incredibly, you can call it expensive or just a high valuation stock. It's a complete outlier compared to a lot of the others out there. If you look at one particular metric that nerds like me like to look at, it's the price to earnings ratio. it's up there in the 230s. So lots of people, he's not alone in saying maybe it's getting a little nosebleedy up there. I do think, too, his general thesis is that AI CAPEX is insanely large

and it's a recurring expense. It's not a one-off expense. Big Tech is spending $400 billion this year on AI infrastructure. These GPUs cost tens of thousands of dollars, but unlike something like a railroad or even like a fiber optic buildout, these chips only last three to five years. They depreciate very quickly. And he says that some of these big names are playing a little fast and loose with their depreciation schedules, which are artificially inflating their earnings. So he has this general thesis right now that CAPX is going to be this large and recurring expense. If one of the balls drop, if Open AI can't follow through on one of its spending commitments, if Oracle can't build out the data centers for Open AI. And these things are depreciating faster than maybe companies are

saying, that's where it all feels like a little bit of a house of cars to him. Now, having said that his bets against Palantir and his bets against NVIDIA have taken on somewhat water and there's the saying that the market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent. So maybe that is part of the reason why he's kind of taking his chips out of the public eye and maybe going to like a family office model where he can manage that money without the prying eyes of the public. Yeah, totally. It's interesting though. He's not the only voice that's made this argument that the chips don't last as long as perhaps some of these companies are assuming. Again, with big implications for whether they're going to have to come out of pocket and pay some more down the line.

And then just in general, short sellers are kind of taking their chips and going home. Indenberg Research shutdown earlier this year after running very large and controversial shorts against his, their most recent one was the Adani conglomerate, also famously shorted Nicola. That ended up being a good call. But right now, the environment is just hostile to bears in general right now. You have tech optimism is still overwhelming. retail sentiment just seems relentlessly bullish, and AI is probably the strongest macro narrative we've had in a decade.

So it's not a fun time to be a bear right now, which is maybe why Michael Burry, one of the most famous bears of all time is saying, I just don't need this public scrutiny anymore. Yeah, and actually, I think it was one hedge fund manager. I saw summed it up in one pithy sentence. He said, I'm in the market because I had to be in the market. I hate that I'm in the market.

Basically, there's just nowhere else he feels to go right now. Well, moving on, the deal to end the government shutdown yesterday has been drawing some attention, not only for what it funds, but what it quietly prohibits. Buried deep within the deal is a provision that will make many hemp-derived products illegal, closing a loophole of the 2018 farm bill that enabled the industry to thrive. Now, the $28 billion hemp industry is potentially under existential crisis. Essentially, the rule set a stricter limit on the amount of THC, which is the intoxicating chemical found in marijuana. that a hemp product can contain. For the last seven years, each product containing 0.3% of THC or less has been considered technically legal.

Now, these products come in many forms, such as drinks, tinctures, vapes and edibles, all of which have exploded in sales and popularity in recent years. Industry advocates say these restrictions will hurt legitimate hemp growers who not only make THC-infused beverages and more, but also produce non-THC goods that primarily contains CBD, which is the non-psychoactive part of cannabis, and is widely marketed as beneficial for health. But lawmakers believe that the loophole in the 2018 Farm Bill

unleashed a wave of unregulated cannabis products that were sold online across state lines at gas stations and other places where marijuana is still actually outlawed. So Toby, the cannabis world has been flying high since 2018, but now it seems like the bill to reopen the government has actually been quite the buzzkill. Yeah, this was such a little sneaky thing that went into this government opening a bill

that a lot of people overlooked initially, but then hemp farmers were like, no, this completely undermines our entire business because that shift, I mean, it doesn't sound like much going from 0.3% THC by weight to 0.4 milligrams per container is a big deal because anyone who has, you know, had a gummy or something like a single hemp gummy can be in, you know, the 2.5 to 10 milligram range. So 0.4% is essentially nothing. And so it completely undermines that entire business model. And this is a pretty big market right here because Whitney Economics estimated that there are 300,000 jobs at risk. That's when you consider all the farmers, the extractors, the manufacturers, the logistics, the retail centers as well. So this is not a small industry by any means that was just totally wiped out by this one bill.

Do we know how this snuck in? I would look to try and see how did this get in there. And I haven't been able to do it yet, at least not in time for our conversation. I want to go trace the trail. It looks like it actually is tied back to Mitch McConnell. actually because he was a champion of this hemp bill back in that 2018 because it was going to be an economic catalyst for Kentucky. But then after, you know, the market may have been flooded by some of these slightly unregulated intoxifying hemp products. He went back and said, whoa, whoa, whoa,

that's not our initial intent. This was to use legal hemp to make things like rope, not necessarily these products. So maybe this is, as he's exiting the Senate, was his last, you know, favor or something saying, hey, I want to reframe how that initial farm bill was interpreted, and maybe that's how it got into this larger bill as a whole. There is one group, though, that is doing a bit of a victory lap here, and that's the big alcohol groups, which have been lobbying for a ban, and, you know, saying basically that this has had a real impact on the consumption of alcohol, the fact that lots of entrepreneurs and startups have been able to go after THC as sort of an alternative to alcohol, but also to have THC in some beverages. So that is one group that's feeling actually quite pleased about

its outcome. All right, let's head to our stock of the week, dog of the week, this segment where Ann and I pick one stock that is embracing its inner fall coziness and one stock that still thinks summer is the superior season. I want the pre-show game of hopscotch, so I'm up first, and my stock of the week is Cisco. The stock synonymous with the dot-com bubble inched oh so close to reaching its dot-com peak again. The closing record to beat was $80 a share, and while Cisco gave it its best shot, gaining nearly 5% on a red day overall for the market. It fell just short at $77.38 a share. As you might expect, it's a wave of AI-related demand that is powering it to similar heights. The company posted strong earnings yesterday, saying it booked $1.3 billion in AI-related revenue last

quarter as demand for its all-in-one server racks starts the heat up. But, Ann, there's a certain level of poetic symmetry here. Cisco rode the dot-com bubble to become the biggest company in the world at the time, How ironic would it be if it finally makes it back to the peak it once inhabited only for its assent to be powered by yet another potential bubble? Very Sisyphian to think about. Oh, Sisyphian. Good use of that sort of classical reference. By the way, isn't this the moment? But just speaking for me, this is where I start to have some sympathy for Michael Burry. Right. The idea that we're now doing a victory lap because a company is hitting the high at reach 25 years ago in another bubble is sort of a sign of an extraordinary time.

Well, Cisco, fascinating to see how it's really come out of its earning season. One of the things it did do, did you see this, it actually increased its outlook for the year. So this is one of these companies. There have been many that did really, really well in their earnings in a vacuum. But it's really sending signs to the market. Things are going to get even better that's getting rewarded. Now, this is, again, I said it was very symmetrical that if you look at its stock chart and you zoom out, you're like, oh, it is so close to the peak that it once inhabited.

But its market cap is actually a lot lower because its share cap. has shrunk in the past, you know, quarter century. So at its peak, it was worth more than half a trillion dollars. And again, half a trillion meant a lot more back then than it does these days. Today, it's worth only about $300 billion. And I did have to look. What does Cisco actually do? It doesn't make any of the GPUs, you know, that are powering or training any of these models.

But what it just did actually is roll out this single plug-in rack that does a bunch of AI stuff that a store or a hospital or factory might need locally on site. And it's kind of like a plug-in-play thing. So it combines your chips that you're getting from Nvidia. It combines storage. It combines your networking hardware and also security software monitoring tool. So it's kind of this plug-in-play solution if you don't want a mess of wires, if you don't want to assemble it yourself locally on site. So it's an infrastructure play, not necessarily one of a chip play or one of the sexier names like in video like that. So interesting, though, that this company that everyone has heard about and everyone holds up as, you know,

peak mania is now returning to very similar heights. There was a little hidden gem in there too because I sort of just poked around to see what else was going on. And there's this one line in there which is called industrial internet of things, which grew at 25%. And Cisco was asked to explain, what do you mean by this? And they said two things were powering that. One, they said it was physical AI, which we've heard Nvidia talk about, right? So manifesting in places like manufacturing. The other thing that they said actually was this was a sign of actually reshoring of manufacturing, which is sort of interesting. This is one of the tech companies actually now saying here's a real example of how tariffs are perhaps

having a positive impact on our business. All right, we're going to take a quick break and come back with our dog of the week. It's time to refresh your yard during spring backyard days at the Home Depot. Get low prices guaranteed on propane grills starting at $179, like the next grill three-burner gas grill. Or get $50 off a select Weber Spirit grill and bring big flavor to your backyard. Then set the scene with Hampton Bay string lights

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Well, for the dog of the week, or rather dogs of the week, are more speculative tech stocks tied to the AI boom, quantum computer and energy sector, all of which have tanked over the past month. It really is a pack of dogs, actually, this one. Companies like Oclo, D-Wave, Quantum, Corwe, Raghetti, computing, bloom energy and more have lost roughly one third of their value as investors are pausing to reassess just how far their future has already been priced in. Now, what started as a narrative-driven boom based on high expectations of AI chip demand, quantum breakthroughs and new energy infrastructure is now getting a bit of a reality check. Let's take the case of Corweave, which had high hopes of building and renting out cloud computing facilities. But the slide began

after it reported a third-party data centre was actually falling behind schedule. The pull back reflects some shaking enthusiasm about the AI trade or at least sort of derivatives like these as mixed results and small pieces of negative news are knocking already volatile stocks off course. Toby, the future is starting to look pretty uncertain for these kinds of companies. Yeah, these names are ones that retail traders know very well. The Wall Street Betts crowd knows very well because Aklo, Deveway, Corweave, Cipher, Tempice, these are companies that had insane runups over the past couple of years. and a lot of them are close to zero revenue, pre-revenue, but with, you know, multi-billion dollar

valuations. And what I think happened is earning season brought a lot of these companies back to reality, because when you look around and you saw that 82% of the S&P 500s beat on earnings per share, 77 beat on revenue, and yet here you are holding, you know, the bags of these companies that are not making any revenue and don't even forecast revenue within the next decade. You start to scratch your head and say, maybe there's a little more value out here than these speculative name. So I think what happens is you saw comparison happening to, you know, actually revenue trading stocks and saying maybe these are not the right companies to have my portfolio. Yeah, it's sort of amazing. And then also there's sort of different parts of this here.

You've got sort of the AI pieces, but there's also the quantum computing pieces. And it's really interesting because you've got companies out there like IBM, for example, which I used to think of as as kind of the stodgy computing business, starting to get rewarded and treated like a much more glamorous quantum stock. So to your point, folks looking around in earning season, at companies with, let's face it, no earnings, and actually saying, let's go and see folks who are showing us the money. And they kind of got a little bit bait and switched maybe by some rumors around the government plowing money into or policy support into quantum names. There was rumors throwing that the Treasury Department would take stakes in these pure quantum plays. Those

rumors eventually got contradicted and then started to disappear a little bit. So that was another kind of narrative-driven thing that was pumping these stocks up that kind of disappeared out from underneath them. So it was, these things are narrative driven in general because there are no underlying fundamental. So when certain things start to shift in that, that's when you start to see these names lose a third of their value. I mean, there's stock chart looks crazy because it does go very, very high.

But then it's kind of precipitously comes down the last month or so. Not yet seeing it though in the private companies, Toby, we've got to remember there's some of the biggest players in the AI trade like Open AI, not actually public yet. We haven't yet seen any reduction in some of the values of those. names takes a little bit of time to catch up. Let's sprint to the finish with some final headlines. Throw away your napkins and because where PepsiCo is going, we won't need them. The snack Vugian is introducing a new line of Cheetos in Doritos without the flavored dust that makes them so finger-licking good. It's part of a new line of naked products, versions of its popular

products that strip out artificial dyes in an effort to appear healthier. So if you see Simply Naked spelled NKD on a bag of Cheetos, you're in for a slightly paler color away and a way less dusty experience. Now, the big question here is how do they taste? And Pepsi execs are confident, you'll be impressed. They tested the naked line with expert tasters who ate them under special lights that prevented them from seeing the color of the chips. And the reviews were, it's going to be the same crunch and the same flavor. And naked Doritos and Cheetos sounds like a good time to me. I think it's really exciting, but it's so interesting, isn't it? idea that having the visual and the color of the chip can change. It's like smelling an onion

and eating an apple a little bit. It's that sort of sensory overload. That is a great point because your nose and your eyes do influence what your taste buds are tasting. So maybe under that specific red light experiment, they tasted fine. But if I reached into a bag of Cheetos and I don't get any of the Cheetos on me, am I going to want to eat them? And it is very funny. Rachel Fernandino head of PepsiCo Foods US said it wasn't based on consumer data or trends. No insight would ever suggest removing color from Doritos or Cheetos because these are fan favorites. So basically she said, no one asked for this. No one wanted this, but they're testing it out anyway. So it's a very funny thing that they're trying. They're trying to appear healthier,

even though consumers haven't said, we want Cheetos to appear healthier. No, exactly. And personally, like, I love Doritos. Like, if they don't glow in the dark for me when I go and eat them, I'm not sure if I'm interested in the entertainment value anymore. Well, look, our next headline is for those who are tired of going to the ATM and wish they could have the ATM brought to them. Well, now that's possible with Robin Hood. The brokerage is partnering with food delivery app GoPuff to allow customers to withdraw cash from their Robin Hood bank accounts and deliver it to their door for a $699 fee or $2.99 if they have more than $100,000

in assets in their Robin Hood accounts. Now, this is something that was teased back in March by CEO Vlad Tenev when he said the company wanted to offer luxurious perks for its members, such as helicopter rides, a chance to buy tickets to the Met Gala, and now cold, hard cash brought in a sealed paper bag. For now, it's only available in New York, but there are plans to launch the service in San Francisco, Philadelphia, Washington, D.C., and other major cities in the coming months.

Toby, are we going to see someone bring you a stack of Benjamin's anytime soon? I'm not ordering cash anytime soon. I think that what Robin Hood is doing is trying to kill banks and kill credit cards. They're trying to kill all legacy institutions at the same time. They basically said, what's the only reason people go to banks anymore at all? Like most of services can be carried out electronically. The one thing keeping people going to physical occasions was withdrawing cash. You have to go to an ATM or you have to go to a bank and say,

so by saying, hey, we're going to have it literally basically door dash to your door. You don't need to go to these institutions at all anymore. So in its war against legacy finance, I think they were going after their last thing, people to physical locations, which is cash delivery. It just feels not that trustworthy. Like you don't want stacks of cash going around on a delivery bike, but they said there will be security. You're going to have a verification code that you have to give to the delivery driver.

But interesting that we're now doing contactless cash delivery. Doesn't this feel like we've gone into the realm of the ridiculous now? I really want to take this seriously. But to pay $6.99 to have cash delivered from something unlike the other stuff that gets delivered, to you, cash is actually being dispensed by a machine for the most part. The holes in the wall. I don't think we're getting cash anytime soon. I'll stick with my burritos coming to me. For our next headline, Uber wants to help you shred the gnar. What's the worst part of skiing, everyone? You might say the cold or that one time you french fried when you should have pizzaed,

but really, it's the trip to the slopes, loading gear into your car, putting chains on your tires in the cold. Uber's latest option wants to help you skip all of that. Uber's ski will allow users to book a Excel or double XL ride to and from nearly 40 mountains across the US, Canada, Switzerland and France. Through a partnership with Vail Resorts, you can even buy an epic pass, which gets you access to more than 90 resorts directly on the app. And Uber Ski, when I first saw the headline, I thought it meant it was like a special snow trolley, Bellets you skipped lift lines, but I guess big cars that fit your gear and get you to the mountain works too. Yeah, Uber's getting really, really bougie. There's been a couple of these sort of

ideas and partnerships. They've got a partnership with Blade launching next year, so they're getting helicopter rides on the docket. And I also remember reading over the summer that Uber's partnering in Kenya to get folks to go on safari. So they're really trying to get into the sort of higher end experiences play. I think you're 100% right. Every stat we've seen so far about the economy is that it is a case-shaped economy right now where higher income people are spending more money, lower income people are feeling in the pinch. And so all of these brands are catering their services, maybe even to our last conversation about Robin Hood to the higher income end of the spectrum. And this Uber ski just screams higher income because, you know, obviously skiing is a

boogie activity. Yeah, that's such a great point. But I think, look, skiers everywhere are probably celebrating this one, getting more access. Those logistics are pretty difficult. Well, for our final headline, Toby, there's a new study out of USC that you may find interesting and very relatable because it's on the world of podcasting. This isn't just a study on what podcast people are listening. listening to because the obvious answer is Morning Brew Daily and Brew Markets, of course. It actually examines the gender of hosts across the most popular podcasts in the US. I definitely feel like the story was planted because I was filling in today. Well, led by Dr. Stacey L. Smith and the Annenberg Inclusion Initiative,

women appeared as hosts of just 33% of the top 592 US podcast on Spotify last year. Well, this represents a low point relative to other media formats with the share of female participation across top films, TV and music, all higher than podcasting last year. When you look into business and tech podcasts, only 8% have one or more female hosts. In sports and fitness, women have a 19% share compared to men, taking an 81% share of popular sporting podcasts. Only one genre saw a higher share of female hosts than male hosts, trying not to read too much into this. It's true crime. Now, it should be noted that within the current top 10 podcasts on Spotify, 6 do actually feature

at least one female host. So Toby, this is such an unfair question, but what's your biggest takeaway from this study? Well, it is. At the very top, it looks relatively balanced because, yes, six out of ten have a female co-hosts. 50% of pods eligible for the Golden Globes first ever, you know, best podcast category, which we did not get nominated for.

Yet. Yet. Also include a woman behind the mic. But this plays very much into the joke that, you know, what do you call a group of guys talking? It's a podcast. This was ever since, like, you know, the beginning of putting mics in front of people. It has been kind of a dude-centric or have a dude-centric vibe to it.

So it does, you know, mirror other entertainment mediums, too. We're sometimes at the very top you see parody, but then as you go down, it starts to become a little bit imbalanced. So I hate to see that business and tech only have 8% of female hosts. So Brew Markets. I mean, we're going to do a plug a little bit later. Thank you. Absolutely. This was kind of slid in here as.

a Trojan horse to say you should absolutely listen to Anne's pod as well. All right, that is all the time we have today. If you have thoughts on the show or want to start a podcast with Ann, shoot us a message on Instagram at MB Daily Show. Toss us a follow there as well. Speaking of podcasts, not hosted by dudes, you should check out Anne's show over at Brew Markets. It drops every afternoon after the market closes and goes deeper on stock-related stories than we ever do here at Burning Brew Daily. It's awesome. hands awesome, grab a coffee and start your day with MBD and then head on over to brew markets for some afternoon tea. Thanks Toby. Now let's roll these credits. Emily Miliron is our executive producer. Raymond Lou is our producer. Olivia Graham and Olivia Lake are our associate producers.

Hair and makeup is starting a podcast of their own. Devin Emery is our president and our show's production of Morning Brew. Have a great weekend and we'll be welcoming Neil back on Monday.