Morning Brew Daily - Can Bluesky Dethrone X? & ‘Wicked,’ ‘Gladiator II’ Captures Double-Header Magic

Episode Date: November 22, 2024

Episode 459: Neal and Toby preview the much-anticipated openings of ‘Wicked’ and ‘Gladiator II’, duly named ‘Glicked,’ and chat if it's able to capture the same magic as 2023’s ‘Barbenheimer.’ Then, there’s been a mass exodus of users from X since the election and Bluesky has been the main beneficiary. But…can it handle the influx of traffic? Also, it turns out the widely popular mobile game Pokémon Go has been collecting player data to train its AI model to navigate the real world. Meanwhile, MicroStrategy is the Stock of the Week, and Ford is the Dog of the Week. Lastly, China has built miles and miles of train tracks connecting its major cities, but it actually might not need that much. Oops.  Download the Yahoo! Finance App (on the Play and App store) for real-time alerts on news and insights tailored to your portfolio and stock watchlists. The 2025 Money with Katie Wealth Planner has dropped! It's the best-selling all-in-one tool to help budget, track, and grow your wealth in 2025 and beyond—all in one place. See why 20,000 #RichPeople love it: https://moneywithkatie.com/2025-wealth-planner Subscribe to Morning Brew Daily for more of the news you need to start your day. Share the show with a friend, and leave us a review on your favorite podcast app. Get your Morning Brew Book of Crosswords HERE: shop.morningbrew.com Listen to Morning Brew Daily Here: https://link.chtbl.com/MBD Watch Morning Brew Daily Here: https://www.youtube.com/@MorningBrewDailyShow 00:00 - Money With Katie Wealth Planner! 03:00 - Wicked and Gladiator II 08:20 - Bluesky vs ‘X’ 12:45 - Pokemon Go and AI 19:00 - Stock of the Week 22:30 - Dog of the Week 25:15 - China's High Speed Rail Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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And I'm Toby Howell. Today, ancient Rome and the land of Oz take center stage in a heavyweight battle at the box office. Then China has a problem that Americans can't even fathom too many miles of high-speed rail. It's Friday, November 22nd. Let's ride. Toby, there are fewer than 40 days remaining in 2024. Do you have your saving plans in order for next year? Yeah, that'd be a big fat no.

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Shop.com to get your wealth planner today or click the link in the description of today's show. Now a word from our sponsor, Yahoo Finance. Neil, you want to know the first sign that I'm growing up in taking my financial health a little more seriously. When I type Yahoo into the search bar, fantasy football isn't the first thing that comes up anymore. Now Yahoo Finance is the default search result. Well, that might be more of an indictment of your fantasy team than your newfound financial acumen. No, it's not that. I am eight and three and tied for first, thank you very much. But it's just become habit at this point to head over to Yahoo Finance each morning after we finish this.

show to start catching up on the day's business news. It really does become part of your routine very quickly because you don't need to go anywhere else to get a sense of what's going on. You can keep track of market moves in your portfolio, checking with top analysts, and see headlines relevant to you all in one place. And you can always head over to see how your fantasy football team is doing in case, you know, you want to pass a little time at work. We do not condone that, Toby, unless you have a bunch of Eagles players, then it's okay.

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Four two lines and a limit and welcome and auto pay. See Verizon.com for details. The two pieces of bread making up a delicious box office sandwich collide today when Wicked and Gladiator 2 make their widespread theatrical debuts. In the aftermath of the box office in cultural phenomenon that was Barbenheimer, the internet was quick to make a portmanteau out of this pairing of tent pole projects in the hopes of rekindling some of its predecessors' glory, dubbed Glicked or Wikiator, if you're a man of tin.

the marketing departments of both movies are hopeful that audiences will come to embrace the tongue-in-cheek pairing like they did with Barbie and Oppenheimer. I am certain that this is going to be the biggest Thanksgiving the industry has ever seen. Jordan Homan, an executive at Phoenix Cedars told the AFP. Even if you look at just one half of the duo, it's clear this is going to be a big weekend. Wicked is already the biggest film in Phoenix Theater's 24-year history in terms of pre-sales pacing 63% ahead of Barbie, which ended up grossing $1.4 billion in total. It also helps that the two films complement each other rather than compete for the same audience like Barbie before Wicked Movie Goaters are likely to skew female while Gladiator

is after that Oppenheimer older male audience. Still, to take down Barb and Hickett is going to have to defy gravity. And I am so sorry for that. Barbie and Oppenheimer opened to $245 million combined in North America, while forecasts have the two movies that make up Glickid opening to $165 million. Yes, but I have faith that one plus one plus Elphabub plus some honor and gory can equal three. Much like Barbenheimer last summer, Hollywood does need some magic to happen once again. I mean, you did have a pretty profitable summer this past year with stuff like Deadpool versus Wolverine inside out too.

They performed very well, but 2024 is still a ways away from those pre-pandemic numbers. The first five months of the year were kind of just hampered by some. pretty thin release schedules. We were still recovering from the Hollywood strikes. Then also, there's still some hangover from the pandemic as well. The fall was full of duds as well. I mean, Joker 2 flopped so hard that no one ever spoke about it again. Fly me to the moon, which I didn't even know was a movie. It was starring Channing Tatum and Scarlett Johansson cost $100 million to make. It grossed $10 million. How much of that was their salaries? Yeah. I literally didn't see a single marketing material for this movie, and yet it's starring

these big people. Furiosa, Mad Max didn't do very well, which is very sad to me because I love that movie. So the movie industry, even though it's had some hits here and there, is still hoping for another Barbenheimer-esque moment. Yeah, we're still pacing 11% below last year's levels. And I'm very curious about Wicked specifically because musicals have really not performed well at the box office at all in the past few years. There have been a ton of flops. The same director who's doing Wicked, John Chu, did in the Heights, which is was a total flop, even though it was a solid movie. Dear Evan Hansen, Cats, the color purple.

It got to the point where musicals were not even advertising themselves as musicals. You had Wonka, which was a musical. People are probably thinking, I had no idea that was a musical. And Mean Girls, those came out last year to the point where the marketing was not focused on their musicals. Now, I don't think for Wicked is a different story because it is the best-selling Broadway show of all time, $1.4 billion in tickets. sales. Everyone knows it's a musical. They're leaning into that and hoping that they can tap into the fervent fandom that Wicked has among millennials and certain Gen Z since it came out on Broadway in 2003 as just an absolute cultural phenomenon to drive movie ticket sales.

I mean, I'm pretty bullish because I went to a Friendsgiving party last night. There were 20 people there that put on Wicked or Defying Gravity. I had never seen anything like it. It was like I was at the show. Everyone hit every single note. Like, honestly, everyone was just incredible singers, but it does show that great. it has on a certain audience, but it really needs this movie to do well because Universal has invested a lot of money into this. Not only does Wicked Part 1 have a $150 million budget. They also have already signed up for the second part of the story, which is an additional $150 million. So that's $300 million at a minimum right there plowed into two movies. So they do need this

to do well to recoup some of its investment. And then on the other side, Gladiator 2 was also just an extremely expensive movie. $250 million to produce, 100,000,000. million dollars to promote. So it is already $350 million in the hole. So both these studios, Paramount and Universal, need these movies to do well. And I think one sign that they might do well is that

the reviews have been generally positive. I don't think these are going to win any crazy awards, but the reviews are generally like, they will give you what you want. And, you know, Gladiator 2 has huge sandals to fill. You know, the original one best picture. But apparently it is

perfectly good. Here's the one a wild card that I do want to mention. So we have Glickett in movie theaters this week, but next week, Disney's Moana, too, joins it. So someone needs to figure out how to combine all three of those movies, but I think you said we're pacing behind it, 2023. Something tells me that we are going to leap ahead of it in this last few weeks of the year. We need to talk about the it social media platform of the fall blue sky. The ex-rival has been growing like a weed, but can it meet the moment and truly break through? One thing's for sure. A lot more people are saying, hey there, Mr. Blue, it's so great to be with you. The site CEO, Jay Graber,

said more than one million people were joining Blue Sky every single day following the election, presumably a large chunk of whom decided to leave X and owner Elon Musk behind. As of earlier this week, Blue Sky had top 20 million users, while daily users searched about, while daily traffic searched about 500% in the U.S. What even is Blue Sky? So I played around with it the other day, and let me tell you, it looks a lot like Twitter. In fact, you may not even notice any difference until you start scrolling, that is. Blue Sky says its differentiator is its personalization opportunities

that let you curate your own social media experience. It has essentially three main feeds, one that shows you the accounts you follow, one that shows what your friends follow, and a third Discover feed that resembles more of the algorithmically curated experiences from other platforms. But there are even more ways to customize from there.

Toby, 20 million users is a lot more than Blue Sky had just a few weeks ago, but well, well short of the hundreds of millions that X, Metas, threads, TikTok, and other giants have. What does Blue Sky need to do to keep up the momentum? It really just has to keep showing how it's differentiated from these platforms because Blue Sky does have a few wedges that it's using to chip away at some of these incumbent platforms. One, people are pretty disillusioned with X right now, especially in the post-election period because so much of the feed has shifted to politics. So they are down to consider alternatives

where they might be served some other fare. Also, there's the decentralized, this open source angle. Some people really want to have more control or self-host their data and content, be a little bit more in charge of their data. And then three, it's just a little milder over there. I mean, a little bit more Mickey Mouse Funhouse compared to X's, I mean, call it like X's Little Shop of Horrors

or something like that. So all of these factors are combining to, maybe one thing really pulls you over, maybe another thing, but you see this kind of widespread appeal that is having to chip away at X's dominance. Okay, so how is it going to make money? What is this business actually like? Well, one thing to know about Blue Sky is that it just has 20 employees. So, they are working around the clock right now to handle all of these new users and make sure their site doesn't glitch, which it has a little bit. But so not a lot of overhead, but the problem is they don't really have a long-term business plan.

I mean, if the CEO went in front of Shark Tank and the sharks were like, okay, let's hear your business plan. How many sales do you have? How do you plan to make money? They would not have a good answer for that. They don't do ads. They're not selling their data to train AI, and that has been, you know, a big advertising point for them. They say they're going to roll out a subscription premium plan for certain users, but they don't

really have a long-term game plan to make money. It's kind of like, we'll figure it out as we go. along, which certain social media platforms have. But yeah, they don't really have a strong revenue plan at the moment. Because part of the reason is the origin story of Blue Sky was that Jack Dorsey, the founder of Twitter, kind of spun out Blue Sky because Jack Dorsey is a pretty big crypto guy, is a pretty big proponent of open source technology. So he wanted to build an open source alternative to Twitter. And so he did it. It was really funded by Twitter originally. Once Elon took over, they did sever ties and raise some venture.

capital money. But yeah, there are definitely some question marks around that. Also, just some growing pains that you have to go through. Content moderation decisions are always just a difficult thing. Blue Sky has a little bit of a decentralized approach to it where kind of the groups of people managing the servers make content moderation decisions. But at one point, when all those people were flying over, they were getting 42,000 content moderation requests a day. Just, again, there's only 20 people on the team total. So it has these growing pains. We'll see if you can go from 20 million to 100 million and potentially beyond. But if I'm long-term betting, I think X is probably still going to have its entrenched following. And then I think you can't

count out threads either because, you know, meta does this for years now. Like, they're so good at growing, monetizing, and engaging big swaths of users. So I think threads is still probably like the leader in the clubhouse to challenge X. I want you all to think back to the summer of 2016. Closer by the chain smokers was the number one song on the charts. And post you. Pokemon Go was an absolute phenomenon. The game blended the real world with AR overlays, letting you hunt for your favorite pocket monsters in cities and countries across the globe.

But while you were tracking down Chargerd, you were also unwittingly doing something else, training an AI model. Pokemon Go's developer Neontic recently announced it was cooking up what it calls a large geospatial model, which is basically an AI that can map geographical locations around the world that haven't been physically captured in person. For instance, Neontik says that if you're standing in front of a church,

it can only see the front. Its model can figure out what the rest of the building might look like based on thousands of other data points the AI has gathered. The reason why its model has so many data points to work with is that Pokemon Go players have been dutifully walking around with their phones out, capturing roughly 1 million scan locations each week. So, Neil, the vision for something like this is to support pretty much any project that needs to be able to position itself in the physical world.

So think future augmented reality products or robots, maybe even weapons systems. And that's part of the reason why we're talking about this story. It is hard to imagine anyone running around looking for Squirtle in 2016 really knew what their data would eventually be used for. For sure. I mean, they have an incredible data set in that they say distinguishes it from the other physical data that you can, the mapping data that comes out. I mean, Google, we've all seen Google's cars run around for Google Maps, but they're restricted to roads. Meanwhile, Pokemon Go players are going more comprehensively out of roads and into forests. I don't even know where people are looking for Charzar.

But it is kind of interesting to see AI models go from text base to the physical world. We know that ChatGBT and other text-based models have been trained on YouTube, videos, books, articles, the internet, and this one is trained on the physical world. I think we'll see how the response to this is because people have been playing Pokemon Go for eight years, not necessarily knowing that they've signed their data away to train an AI model that they have no idea what is going to be used for. Right. And it was a little split because users, some users were aware that this was the direction Pokemon Go was heading. But on the one hand, you're right. No one really reads data collection in terms of service. So of course, like the average player probably doesn't

know this, but on the other hand, you snoop through some of these Reddit communities and you see that people are saying, like, yes, we have known that this is part of Neontics business model. So maybe it's not as big a deal as you might expect here. I do just want to dig into Pokemon Go's business a little bit because I remember when it peaked in 2016. Like, it was a cultural phenomenon. People were running around. I remember I was in Milwaukee at the time.

Someone was like, there's a blast noise down by the beach and like the mass of humanity you saw going down there. It truly was a moment in time. but you just step back. It brought in $560 million in revenue last year. So even though it is faded from that cultural relevance, still an absolute behemoth. It's making half a billion dollars in revenue to this day.

Overall, one app analytics company estimates that it's gross, nearly $8 billion in lifetime revenue. So still just an absolute behemoth. And if you believe what Niantic is doing with its AI data, that just monetizing Pokemon Go users is, you know, for playing the game, it's not going to be their main line of, business. They're going to do something crazy with this AI. They possibly could sell it. So that just

might be a secondary revenue stream for them. So this company just under the radar is kind of insane. Up next, it is Stock of the Week. Dog of the Week time. It's time to refresh your yard during spring backyard days at the Home Depot. Get low prices guaranteed on propane grills starting at $179, like the next grill three burner gas grill. Or get $50 off a select Weber Spirit grill and bring big flavor to your backyard. Then set the scene with Hampton Bay string lights that bring it all together. Shop spring backyard days for seven days

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Hilton, for the stay. Welcome to Stock of the Week, Dog of the Week, the Friday segment where Toby and I pick one stock that will have its vengeance and another that was not entertained. I won the pre-shown naval battle at the Coliseum, so I get to go first. And my stock of the week is MicroStra. A company you might not have heard of, but could soon become a household name.

And that's because Micro Strategy is inextricably linked to the fortunes of Bitcoin. The stock shot up 17% this week in tandem with Bitcoin surge to join the list of the top 100 publicly traded U.S. companies by market cap. It's even worth more than the American corporate giants like Nike and Dell. So why are Micro Strategy and Bitcoin tighter than Shrek and Donkey? It wasn't always this way. Micro Strategy was a ho-hum software company until 2020, when its co-founder Michael Saylor made what was then a seemingly bizarre decision. He spent $250 million of the company's money

buying Bitcoin. The entire business world was like, bro, what are you doing? But he stood by it saying that he went down a crypto rabbit hole, like all of us during the pandemic, and regretted not buying Bitcoin sooner. Fast forward four years, and Micro Strategy has transformed into what calls a Bitcoin Treasury Company. It now owns 331,200 Bitcoin worth over $30 billion at today's prices, making it the largest corporate holder of the cryptocurrency. Toby, this was a crazy bet by Sailor, but it seems to have paid off. The stock has gained nearly 500% this year. Micro Strategy is just such a weird company. In the days before Bitcoin ETFs became widely available, micro strategy was seen as almost this proxy for trading.

Bitcoin. If you wanted to go down the avenue of traditional finance, maybe you didn't want to mess with your own wallet, you could just buy Micro Strategy because it more or less tracked the price of Bitcoin. Ahab's kind of divorced from that at this point because Bitcoin ETS are widely available now, but you look at the price of MicroStathe's up 500% this year. It is outpacing Bitcoin. So they have this virtuous cycle where it sells all this common stock to buy more Bitcoin. As the stock market value continues to rise, even more stock. be converted to buy even more Bitcoin. So as long as everyone's kind of down with this virtuous cycle, it is a virtuous cycle. And it does push the company's stock price up. It does kind of

drive the price of Bitcoin at this point as well. So what happens, though, when the price of Bitcoin goes down? That's the big question mark. So that's maybe when you see the stock chart return from its peak. But Bitcoin is still going up at this point. So it's just speculation. Some think micro strategy is getting a little ahead of its skis in terms of its stock price. Citron Research, which is a short seller, disclosed a short position in Micro Strategy yesterday, which is why that 70% weekly gain wasn't even more. I think it dropped 16% yesterday after that short seller was like, we're still bullish on Bitcoin, but we think micro strategies 500% gain this year compared to Bitcoin's 130% gain is a little much. But Micro Strategy has

just surged in just the past few weeks because they've disclosed even more Bitcoin purchases and announce their plans to buy even more, just selling more stock, selling more debt. They have a goal over the next three years of raising $42 billion in capital to buy more Bitcoin. So they're becoming very much a Bitcoin investment firm where they're not just using their own money to buy it. They're raising money from institutional investors to buy Bitcoin because they think they have a really good formula because as long as Bitcoin goes up, so does their stock price. I don't know if they do any sort of software anymore. I think they do have a small software business. at this point, but yeah, mostly Bitcoin. My dog of the week is Ford. The automaker announced

this week it is cutting 4,000 jobs from its European business, mostly coming from its operations in Germany and the UK. It's not hard to guess why it's pulling back. Every carmaker outside of China and Tesla have been struggling to sell electric vehicles. Consumer demand has remained tepid and governments across the globe are slashing EV subsidies, forcing automakers to make some tough strategic decisions. Do you continue to plow money? into money losing EV plants and cars or scale back at the risk of getting passed by by others. For Ford, the riding was on the wall. It recently paused production of its F-150 Lightning Truck, a car that once had a waitlist of over 200,000

because of lower than expected demand. So, Neal's Ford's stock is essentially flat over the last week, but it's also flat over the past year as investors are left in this holding pattern as it tries to figure out this shift in strategy. Companies, automakers around the world have spent three. $300 billion on EV and battery production since 2016. GM itself has spent $35 billion. They thought this was going to be a massive industry pivot,

and they spent the money that would lead them there. Unfortunately, the consumers have just not responded in kind for various reasons, and that has made every single car EV that these companies sell unprofitable besides Tesla. So they're just not making money on them. It's been a couple years now, and they can't justify the investments that they've made. So it's not just Ford slashing jobs. Pretty much, we've seen job cuts announcements from pretty much every automaker in the past few weeks. Stalantis, General Motors, and Nissan.

We also know that Volkswagen is pledging to close down plants in Germany for the first time in its 87-year history, which has caused a sort of a political crisis there. And EVs just aren't selling, and the ones that are selling are Chinese. Yeah, it is really a two-pronged thing where demand is not there, but then also this competition is just so massive with these cheap cars that are really amazing cars, too, if you look at the consumer reaction to them coming out of China. Ford is blaming policy decisions at this point because their chief financial officer, John Lawler, recently wrote a letter to the German government saying, what we lack in Europe and Germany is an unmistakable, clear policy agenda to advance e-mobility. So they're still saying they're criticizing these decisions in Europe to roll back some of these EV subsidies. But you might just say like, hey, if you can't make this business model work without these subsidies, maybe you need to figure out a better business model.

So this is not a story that we've talked about for the first time. It's not going to be a story that we've talked about for the last time either. These headwinds are still blowing. It still is very tough to make EV work in this current consumer environment. To close out the week, I'll ask you all a question. Is there such a thing as too much high-speed rail? At least in China, the answer might be yes. After building a crazy extensive high-speed rail network and plans to go even bigger,

China's trains have become a giant money pit, the Wall Street Journal reports. The American mind can't comprehend this. Too much high-speed rail? All we've got is the Acela in the northeast, a couple hundred miles of quasi-high-speed rail that seems to break down every week. China is a totally different story. In the last 12 years, they've constructed nearly 30,000 miles. of high-speed rail, enough to circle the globe one time over.

It's one of the largest public works in human history, and it's also been extremely expensive. In the last five years alone, China has spent more than $500 billion on train tracks and stations, while its railway operator, China State Railway Group, is nearing $1 trillion of debt in liabilities per the journal. As the country's economy slows, its population declines, and people's living standards stagnate. More are wondering, is this the best use of our money? The problem is that this has been China's playbook for really decades now, is the way you maintain economic growth and GDP growth in the country

is through this massive infrastructure spending. But where you run into problems, if you're spending that money on things that you don't really need anymore, I mean, reading this Wall Street Journal article, you see these stories of new high-speed rail stations being constructed in places with populations that, one, or rural, don't need it. Two, they're shrinking. you go to these stations. They're beautiful. They're brand new. They're pristine. There's like four people in them.

So it's gotten to the point where they're doubling down on train lines too. They already have a line connecting one city to one city, one province to one province. and they're building a new one that shaves off two hours or something like that. So it is right now maybe building for the sake of building, which is causing all other sorts of problems because every dollar you allocate towards building high-speed rail is a dollar. You don't allocate towards something else. So that is why people are taking a step back and saying, all right, maybe too much high-speed rail here.

Yeah, there's one pretty stark example of this. There's one rural county in inland China. That's about 700,000 people. So think about the county around Rochester, New York, okay? that's about the same size. Well, it's got 12 high-speed rail stations in a 40-mile radius, and the population there is declining. So yes, you're right. China, the government there has pursued these trophy projects to, as a way of to express their power and show the world that they have a lot of capacity and investment to build. But the just general economy there is stagnating people. There's not enough jobs. The property market has crashed. And the people are like, we want maybe a little more stimulus to spur consumer demand rather than these more, you know, high-level trophy projects that the government is pursuing. But yes, I think it was quite shocking to see a place where there maybe is too much high-speed rail

from our perspective. Okay, let's wrap it up there. It's basically the weekend. You made it. Thanks so much for starting your mornings with us and have a wonderful Friday. Hope you get into something fun this weekend. For any questions, comments, or feedback, send an email to morning. Morning Brew Daily at MorningBrew.com.

And if you're enjoying the podcast, don't forget to share it with someone or someone's in your life. For specific ideas, our muse, Toby, is here. Our muse. I want you to share this podcast with someone you want to go to Wicked with and someone you want to go to Gladiator 2 with. Now, that might be the same person. And if so, congrats on having a friend with such great range.

But if it's two people, even better, my suggestion is put them both in a group chat and let them figure out and fight over who is getting the invite to what movie. gladiator style. Okay, let's roll the credits. Emily Milliron is our executive producer. Raymond Loo is our producer. Olivia Graham is our associate producer. Lonnie Fiscus is our technical director. Billy Minino is on audio. Hair and makeup is sound asleep after going to the midnight premiere of Gladiator 2 at Lincoln Square, which apparently Paul Mest call attended.

Devin Emery is our chief content officer and our show is a production of Morning Brew. Great show, Daniel. I wish you all well. Yamava Resort and Casino at San Manuel is California's number one entertainment destination for today's superstars. Catch the Jonas Brothers return to the Yamava Theater stage on April 30th, the powerful vocals of Demi Lovato on May 17th, and the signature Southern Country Rock of Eric Church on July 19th. Tickets on sale now at Yamavat Theater.com, only at Yamava Resort and Casino, celebrating its 40th anniversary.

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