Morning Brew Daily - CEOs Sound Off Against Tariffs & The NCAA Case Upending NIL

Episode Date: April 8, 2025

Episode 556: Neal and Toby dive into how a single post on X about a tariff pause set the markets ablaze while the White House denies the credibility of the post. Then, Jamie Dimon, Bill Ackman, and other Wall St. big heads are publicly expressing their concerns about the tariff-induced market wipeout. Plus, a pivotal NCAA settlement case out in California could fundamentally change how athletes are paid by their schools for NIL. Meanwhile, Toby looks at the trend of metal braces making a comeback.  Subscribe to Morning Brew Daily for more of the news you need to start your day. Share the show with a friend, and leave us a review on your favorite podcast app. Checkout TaxAct for more! Listen to Morning Brew Daily Here: https://link.chtbl.com/MBD Watch Morning Brew Daily Here: https://www.youtube.com/@MorningBrewDailyShow 00:00 - Nintendo President named… Bowser? 2:15 - One post = market madness 7:00 - CEOs have a warning 10:30 - NCAA game changing case 17:30 - Toby Trends: Braces 20:00 - Sprint Finish! Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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Good morning, Brew Daily. show. I'm Neil Fryman. And I'm Toby Howell. Today, Jamie Diamond leads a chorus of billionaires slamming tariffs. Ben, how a single tweet added, then erased trillions of dollars from the U.S. stock markets. It's Tuesday, April 8th. Let's ride. So the Nintendo of America president was making the media rounds yesterday discussing the impact of the trade war on the Switch 2, the company's much anticipated new console whose pre-sales have been delayed due to tariffs. And that's interesting, but what you really need to know is this guy's name is Doug Bowser. Yes, Bowser like Mario's arch nemesis.

The Nintendo executive and the video game villain have no connection, but it could be a sign of normative determinism, the theory that people tend to gravitate toward work that fits their names. Well, if you thought that was a crazy bit of Nintendo naming lore, try this one on for size. There was this civil rights attorney, John Joseph Kirby, who famously defended Nintendo in a major IP case that allowed Nintendo to keep using the name Donkey Kong. That win helped solidify the company's rise and also earned him the honor of being the namesake for their little pink character, also named Kirby.

And get this, I'm named Toby because my mom stubbed her toe on a bee and Neil is named Neil because, okay, I'll stop. Let's get to the ad. A word from our sponsor, Tax Act. If you run a small business and you're doing your own taxes right now, stop. Seriously, drop the form 1040. There is a better way. Tax Act has a team of credentialed U.S.-based tax experts whose whole job is to know the tax code inside and out so you don't have to.

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And let Tax Act experts be your tax sidekick so you can keep being the hero. Yamava Resort and Casino at San Manuel is California's number one entertainment destination for today's superstars. Catch the Jonas Brothers return to the Yamava theater stage on April 30th, the powerful vocals of Demi Levato on May 17th, and the signature Southern Country Rock of Eric Church on July 19th. Tickets on sale now at yamava Theater.com, only at Yamava Resort and Casino, celebrating its 40th anniversary. You in? Must be 21 to enter. So yesterday wasn't the Black Monday 2.0. Many predicted it to be with all three major U.S. indexes finishing the day right around even.

But how we got to that relatively benign closing figure was an absolute roller coaster. As expected, the market opened deep in the red as Trump showed no signs of backing down from his tariff plans. But then things went haywire right around 10 a.m. Suddenly, the S&P 500 switch from red to green, soaring over 7% in a matter of minutes. The culprit, a rumor started on X, that there would be a 90-day pause on all tariffs except for China. The tweet in question came from an anonymous account that goes by Walter Bloomberg,

no relation to the actual Bloomberg, who wrote that the director of the National Economic Council, Kevin Hassett, said Trump was considering a respite. That rumor spread like wildfire. was eventually picked up by CNBC, leading to the massive stock run-up. Then came the reality check. People started to realize that the rumor was exactly that, a rumor. And an hour later, the White House issued a statement outright denying the report, and the market quickly made a U-turn. Just to put the volatility into perspective, the entire stock market gained, then lost more money

in a matter of minutes based on a single unverified tweet than it was worth 40 years ago. Two and a half trillion dollars of movement, one tweet. Finally, just to be a single, to throw one more variable into the cauldron of volatility. Trump went on to threaten an extra 50% tariff on China if they didn't rescind their 34% tariff on U.S. goods. It all combined to add up to a whole lot of nothing. The S&P 500 closed down just 0.2% while the NASDAQ eked out a 0.1% gain. Neil, there were dumps, then pumps, then dumps again, enough to give your portfolio whiplash.

It was pretty wild. I mean, the S&P 500 was down. down 3.4% sorry, it was down 4.7% for the day, officially entering bare market territory. Then this tweet comes along and everyone was like, well, where is this information from? So there's a

wild goose chase on Twitter to find that, but it had really severe market implications. And then the SMP 500 went from down 4.7% to up 3.4% for the day before finding a sense of calm and futures look good this morning. They're all in the green. All three

indexes are up over 1%. Japan's Niki index was up 6% for the day. So it seems like markets are finding some measure of calm after two and a half days of truly insane volatility and a big sell-off. The Wall Street Journal kind of tracked down this tweet origins to an account named Hammer Capital on X. It is an anonymous account that with 692 followers

in a bio that reads memes and vibes. That was the first time this rumor started and then it got picked up by this much larger Walter Bloomberg account. and then just absolute chaos broke out. And I think a lot of people take the takeaway from this story is just how fast information moves in today's trading environment. Because it really just underscores how many investors are just feverous for any information that might calm this market. But then also how quickly Wall Street's high frequency trading algorithms react to news like that, which is why we saw this just incredible run-up.

It's one of the biggest intraday moves ever in the stock market. You have to go back to March of 2020 to find a move of similar magnitude. And it all comes from really these algorithms reacting to this one little shred of information. So I think it just shows the current trading environment we live in has the ability to make these massive moves based on just how quickly you can react to new information. And it also shows how thirsty investors are for Trump to roll back these tariffs. It perhaps is a preview of what could happen. Should he rescind the tariffs yesterday, we got even more conflicting news.

Investors really want to know, they're flying blind right now. They really want to know whether these tariffs are permanent or they're part of a negotiation. And Trump was asked this whether they are permanent or up for a negotiation because that would provide a lot of clarity for investors. And he replied, they can both be true. And this was also evidence yesterday by conflicting reports by two of his trade advice. or as economic officials, Secretary of Treasury's Scoppa sent said that following a very constructive phone discussion with the government of Japan. I'm starting to negotiate with Japan. 11 minutes later, Peter Navarro, the key architect of this trade plan for Trump, wrote a financial times op-ed where he said,

this is not a negotiation. For the U.S., this is a national emergency trade by trade deficits caused by a rig system. So you have one economic official saying, we're starting negotiations. the next 11 minutes later saying we are not negotiating, and that has left traders very confused, which could provide an overhang for the markets for days to come until we get a little more clarity. Meanwhile, the market turmoil since last Wednesday has lost Wall Street Titans a lot of money, and anyone who's watched their portfolio tank, you know that you start to get a little cranky. A number of the biggest names in finance have spoken out against Trump's tariffs in the last few days, warning of severe economic headwinds to come and even possibly a recession.

One of the more surprising critics is Jamie Diamond, the leader of the biggest bank in the country, J.P. Morgan, and the most tenured and influential of all Wall Street CEOs. In his annual letter to shareholders yesterday morning, Diamond said that there were some legitimate reasons for the tariffs. However, he added, in their current implementation, they will drive up inflation and slow down growth. And you better wrap this up soon because, quote, the quicker this issue is resolved, the better, because some of the negative effects increased cumulatively over time and would be hard to reverse. That is a reversal from Diamond's position as recently as January when he told people worried about tariffs to, quote, get over it. Diamonds, not the only one, not the only banking baron sounding the alarm.

Bill Ackman, a Trump supporter, warrant of economic nuclear winter over tariffs, and the influential but typically private investor, Stanley Drunken Miller, issued a rare statement on X saying that he doesn't sort of. support tariffs over 10%. Toby, the billionaire dam has broken. It absolutely has, and it's not just Wall Street-specific billionaires as well. Elon Musk has also been sounding off against this tariff situation. He's kind of publicly sniped at the key tariff architect. You mentioned Peter Navarro saying that his PhD from Harvard is a bad thing and not a good thing, and then Navarro kind of struck back and said, he's just protecting his own interest. He's a businessman.

Of course, he doesn't like this. So you are seeing some of these cracks form in kind of this coalition around Trump with Elon Musk, with Bill Ackman, you know, sending a lot of tweets about how he wants a little 90-day timeout on this tariff situation. So you are seeing the who's who of Wall Street basically influencers. I know it's a ridiculous thing to call Jamie Diamond, but that's what they are, kind of sounding off in letting their feelings be known about these tariffs. And another one of those influencers was someone we talked about last week, BlackRock CEO Larry Fink. He got up at the Economic Club of New York and said he didn't talk about the tariffs specifically, but he said most CEOs I talked to would say we are probably in a recession right now.

This comes after his annual letter last week where he said we are in one of the more uncertain economic environments that he's ever seen. So he's joining the chorus along with Bill Ackman. And another name to know that spoke out was Ken Land Gown. He's the co-founder of Home Depot, long-time Republican donor. He said, I don't understand the guy. Gosh darn formula. He didn't say gosh darn. He said something else similar. I believe he's been poorly advised by his advisors about this trade situation and the formula they're applying. So Ken Landgone, Larry Fink, Bill Ackman, Jamie Diamond, have all kind of said recently in the past few days

that we need to get this thing wrapped up because it's causing a ton of uncertainty and could lead to a recession. And then even on Washington as well, Ted Cruz has raised fears about the next election cycle. And then some Republicans have started pushing towards signing legislation that would allow Congress to remove tariffs with a majority vote. So you are seeing some pushback on the Hill as well. And then finally, we are going to hear from Wall Street once more again this week because J.P. Morgan, BlackRock, and Wells Fargo are all due to announce earnings on Friday. What if I told you that Florida beating Houston last night in the men's national championship game

was not the most important thing to happen in college sports yesterday? Perhaps the more significant development happened in a courtroom in California where a judge heard the final hearing and a settlement that will rip up the NCAA's amateurism model as we know it and allow schools to directly pay players for the first time. Experts say it's the biggest structural change in the entire history of collegiate athletics and arguably one of the most significant legal milestones in sports history, not just college. The settlement stems from several massive multi-billion dollar lawsuits filed against the NCAA over player compensation, which the organization has worked for over a year to resolve. The judge still needs to approve it and she declined to yesterday, telling lawyers

to make some small tweaks and get back to her in a week. But when she does, as expected, the landscape of college sports will never be the same. Among the sweeping changes, schools would be able to start sharing revenue with student athletes. Team sizes would be governed by roster limits instead of scholarships. And name, image and likeness deals, NIL, would be overseen by a third-party clearinghouse that ensures they are fair value. Toby, there's two major parts the settlement, one looking back and one looking forward. Yeah, let's look at the backward looking one first. It offers a remedy for college athletes who played before 2021, which is when the NCAA allowed players to cash in on their name, image, and a likeness.

And so there's about a $3 billion, $2.75 billion pot that is set to be distributed to those players. And that is really based on which sports you played in that which schools. the majority of that money is going to go towards the Power 5 conferences and money-making sports like football and basketball. So if you are a swimmer or maybe if you are a soccer player, you're not going to get a large sum, but you will have a little bit of money waiting there for you. But it really is the future where the big transformation is kind of aligning here. Because going forward, allowing schools who share revenue with student athletes is just a complete rewritten and a complete upending of the old end.

amateurism laws that governed NCAA sports. So this is definitely one of those things that completely rewrites the rulebook around how college sports are going to be approached. Yeah, so schools will have a, for now, a $20.5 million salary cap to spend on players. And it applies to those big four power conferences plus the PAC 12 and other schools can opt in. And the question is, will this increase or decrease parity? And as always, with NCAA changes, it appears like, though, this. This is a rich get richer situation.

Alabama, Ohio State, all these companies make a ton or all these schools. They are basically companies. They make so much money in their athletic departments because of these powerhouse football programs and secondaryly basketball. So they will have more money to Marshall to pay players. And also while NIL is not going away, it's moving to a third party clearinghouse situation managed by Deloitte. They will probably have more resources at their disposal to broker NIL deals. so players will be able to get some of that revenue sharing and NIL deals. So it does seem like the power conferences will put even more distance with the rest of the pack.

One knock-on effect of this too is that it's a totally new way of running an athletics program. And it's a lot more pro-based. And so what you will be seeing is more of these GM figures come in to say, hey, how do we manage a roster? How much is a player worth? What salary should we devote towards them? So you're going to see colleges and universities hiring, sometimes former athletes, like Steph has been named the GM of Davidson's basketball.

basketball program. So you are going to see people coming in to run these like professional sports franchises because that's basically what they are. And then finally, one thing that we have to mention is that with these new roster sizes incoming, a lot of players who maybe were under scholarship will now no longer be receiving the aid that they thought they would. So that's been a big pushback from a lot of current and former athletes is saying, hey, you are up ending these kids' lives here. They're probably going to have to transfer. But transferring is a very traumatic situation. You don't bring your friends with you, even though you might play a sport there. So you are seeing some pushback specifically around this roster limitation from athletes, which is maybe one of the

big sticking points that will hang this settlement up. Up next, let's talk about Toby's trends. It's time to refresh your yard during spring backyard days at the Home Depot. Get low prices guaranteed on propane grills starting at $179 like the next grill three burner gas grill or get $50 off a select Weber Spirit Grill and bring big flavor to your backyard. Then set the scene with Hampton Bay string lights that bring it all together. Shop spring backyard days for seven days at the Home Depot. Now through May 6th. Exclusion supplies to home depot.com slash price match for details. Introducing the new best skin ever ultra slim precision concealer from Sephora collection.

It's full coverage with a matte finish and perfect for any look. Whether you're building it up for a full glam moment or target. getting correction for a more natural vibe. At only $12, it's great for affordable touchups on the go. Get this new must-have concealer at Sephora or at Sephora.com today. What if I told you that the hottest new fashion trend wasn't wide-legged jeans or biker shorts, but something much more attached to you, something you probably dealt with in middle school, something on your teeth.

Yep, brace yourself for another Toby's trends, because today we're talking about braces is making a comeback. Suddenly, jaw hardware is the hottest new status symbol amongst the youths and adults alike. Orthodontists have reported a rise in interest in the once uncool OG metal braces as wares are embracing their imperfections and flashing metallic smiles with pride. Part of it is tied to popular culture, old and new. There was Marcia Brady in the Brady Bunch, and of course America Ferreira in Ugly Betty. But contemporary stars like rapper Lil Uzi Verde are also proudly flaunting their orthodonic infrastructure, leading to an uptick of young people wanting to do the same. Part of the appeal, though, is undeniably tied to price tag.

Braces can range from $3,000 to $10,000 and are often not covered by insurance. So rocking 10 racks on your face is just the latest way to flex. Plus, accessories like colorful rubber bands and jewels turn braces into tooth bling and offer wears another outlet to express their individuality. Neil, as a former brace face myself, I'm happy to see this. this narrative shifting, but it is a bit baffling at the same time. Well, I was going to say, I wish they were cool when I had them in eighth grade. And when I think about a braces comeback, that usually refers to something you respond to

someone when they make fun of you for having braces, which, you know, I think happened to a lot of us back in the day. It's a little, it's a little baffling, but, you know, as you mentioned, you can see it as a way to personally express yourself. Recently, I did do Invisaline and, you know, in this article. about braces. They quoted a bunch of people saying Envisaline was boring. And I'm like, yeah, that's kind of the point.

You want to keep this thing a little discreet because it's very visible. But the tides have turned, the youth have spoken, and I guess braces are cool again. Braces are cool, but you are right, that part of it is that Invisaline is not only boring, but people don't like having to remember

to wear their trays, and you have to wear them for 22 hours a day. You have to take them out when you eat. So part of it is just the logistics of it all. They'd rather just have these braces. But part of it is, that a lot of people are just saying that they're embracing this. They are literally working on self-improvement. So, like, why would I hide this thing? Like, I'm trying to invest in my imperions here.

So now you're seeing kids who used to, you know, beg to take them off, begging to leave them on because it's become a part of their personality and something like that. And these orthodontists are posting in Facebook groups, national Facebook groups, and going, is anyone else seeing this? And they're all like, yes, for some reason, these kids do not want to take them off. So I think it's a good thing overall, though, because braces were traumatic for a lot of kids. Like, you didn't want to even smile. It made us all do those smises where you don't open your teeth. But now if people are embracing them,

I think that's overall probably a good thing. Now let's sprint to the finish with some final headlines. Shopify has drawn a line in the sand when it comes to AI usage at the company, stating that not only is it encouraged, but AI use is now a fundamental expectation for all employees. Shopify CEO, Toby Lukie, emphasized the critical role AI will play in a memo he posted on X yesterday.

He told staff to treat AI as a tool for innovation and efficiency and push to integrate it into tasks like product development, performance reviews, and even hiring decisions. Lutki highlighted that teams must demonstrate why AI cannot fulfill the needs before requesting additional resources or headcount. He also warned against stagnation, arguing that embracing AI is and will be essential for staying competitive as a business. You know, outside of Klarna's AI-obsessed CEO, this might be the most of the most of the most of the most explicit endorsement of AI we've seen from a major company.

And Shopify, Toby, has always been, the Toby with an eye, not you, has always been kind of pushing the technological bounds of workplace productivity. In early 2023, kind of rocked the HR world. He sent this memo directing employees to stop holding an absurd amount of meetings. The company literally went into people's calendars, deleted 12,000 events, freeing up 95,000 hours. And now he goes with this very, you know, buzzy, uh, or, interesting boundary pushing AI memo as well, saying you can't get more people on your team

if AI can do that. And you have to prove that AI can't do that. And you just wonder how big the overall headcounts of tech companies is going to be now. We saw huge hiring during the pandemic. Then there were major layoffs. And now it's kind of stagnated. Shopify had a total headcount of 8100 at the end of December from 8300 a year earlier. And you wonder with this new directive, Whether that will ever grow again, Klarna, as you mentioned, is another AI-forward fintech company that wants to decrease its headcount from 4,000 to 2,000. You just wonder what this means for the overall picture for tech jobs. Another company thought, hey, what if we did Game of Thrones, but make it real? Colossal biosciences announced yesterday that they had created three dire wolves, which haven't existed on Earth in more than 12,000 years.

If Colossal sounds familiar, that's because it's the $10 billion company trying to resurrect the woolly mammoth and de-extinct a bunch of other lost species like the Dodo and the Tasmanian tiger. But it surprised the world yesterday with the introduction of the dire wolves, two brothers named Romulus and Remus and their sister named, of course, Kaleisi. How did they do it? A team took gray wolf cells, edited the genes to focus on specific dire wolf traits, like heavy muscles, inserted those cells into domestic dogs, then finally, implanted those into different dogs that served as surrogates. voila, you get a dire wolf. Toby, are you impressed? I am impressed, mainly because these dire wolfs are going to be really big, bigger than

normal gray wolves when they're fully growing 140 pounds. But also these animals were bred by, you know, studying DNA from original diowulfs, which date back to a 13,000-year-old tooth, a 72,000-year-old school. So they had to pick and choose these genes and insert them into genes from a gray wolf. And yeah, their next stop is de-extinction. But I'm also impressed with this other announcement that was kind of overshadowed by bringing dire wolves back. And that was that they had cloned for Red Wolfs,

which are currently a critically endangered population in the U.S. And the aim is to bring more genetic diversity to the population of captive Red Wolfs. So they're trying to breed and help save this species. So even amongst these buzzy, you know, bring back Game of Thrones extinct era wolves, they also are working towards, you know, supporting and trying to save species that are currently alive today.

So that's kind of the colossal playbook that we've been seeing. Make headlines with this big announcement, but also work to save current species on Earth today. I have to make an admission. I didn't know Dyerwolves were real. That is a fair admission. Right? Yeah.

I thought they were straight up Game of Thrones characters. Well, I mean, are they real still? Because technically these are crossbed with gray wolves, but that is a fair admission. I probably was on the same page, but I would never admit it live on this podcast. All right, let's move on. Some people will do anything for clicks, even if it means risking death or potentially causing a micro-apocalypse.

In March, a YouTuber who goes by the name of Neo-Oorientalist, illegally visited North Sentinel Island in the Indian Ocean, home to the ultra-isolated Sentinelese tribe, leaving behind a coconut, a can of cola, and a whole lot of risk. The Sentinelese have violently resisted all contact for decades to protect themselves from outsiders, and more importantly, their diseases. Even the simple flu could be catastrophic to this community because they have no immunity. Neo-Oorientalists has since been arrested by Indian authorities and may face jail time, which is still a better outcome than a previous visitor to the island. In 2018, a missionary from the U.S. illegally visited and was ultimately killed by the tribe after making contact. And Neil, I have to ask, was it worth it for the views?

Certainly not. And this is not the only instance recently of U.S. influencers. ticking off countries where they visited by, you know, just doing things that are pissing off the government. I mean, one U.S. influencer, this was back in March, took a baby wombat from their mom. And this was this, this is an Australia. It sparked a huge amount of backlash. They were reviewing her visa. And she was like, all right, I'm out of here.

The Australian prime minister. So there's a lot that people would do for clicks. Many of those are not acceptable to the people where you're doing that. All right, that is our show. Thanks so much for starting your morning with us and have a wonderful Tuesday. For any questions, comments, or feedback, send an email to Morning Brew Daily at Morningbrew.com. Let's roll the credits. And just a heads up, we've got a few changes in store.

Don't be shaken. Emily Milliron is our executive producer. Raymond Liu is our producer. Our associate producers are Olivia Graham and Olivia Lake. Yuchinawa Ogu is Technical Director Emeritus. I know he's leaving the show to work here on a day. schedule at the brew. We'll never forget you, Euchenna. Garrett Peck is on audio. Hair and makeup is skeptical of the new braces trend. Devin Emery is our president. Congrats on the promotion. And our show

is a production of Morning Brew. Great. So we'll get Neil. Let's run it back tomorrow. Ryan Reynolds here for Mint Mobile. I don't know if you knew this, but anyone can get the same premium wireless for $15 a month plan that I've been enjoying. It's not just for celebrities. So do like I did and have one of your assistance assistants assistants switch you to mint mobile today. I'm told it's super easy to do at mintmobile.com slash switch. Up front payment of $45 for three-month plan equivalent to $15 per month required. Intro rate first three months only, then full price plan options available. Taxes and fees extra.

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