Morning Brew Daily - Chinese AI Model Closes Gap on US & African Teams Surprise at the World Cup

Episode Date: June 29, 2026

#877: Chinese AI models are beginning to catch up to Anthropic and OpenAI, threatening America’s top spot in the AI game. NASA races to save a telescope that is falling back down to Earth. Nine out of 10 African teams have advanced in the World Cup. The fall of Spirit Airlines has caused a travel boom for the bus industry. Finally, what you need to know in the week ahead.  Learn more at https://www.schwab.com/oninvesting Grab tickets to our Performance Revue show! https://www.morningbrew.com/events/brew-performance-revue-2026?utm_campaign=performance_revue_2026&utm_source=mbd Subscribe to Morning Brew Daily for more of the news you need to start your day. Share the show with a friend, and leave us a review on your favorite podcast app. Listen to Morning Brew Daily Here:⁠ ⁠⁠https://www.swap.fm/l/mbd-note⁠⁠⁠  Watch Morning Brew Daily Here:⁠ ⁠⁠https://www.youtube.com/@MorningBrewDailyShow⁠ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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Wayfair, every style, every home. Good morning, Brew Daily Show. I'm Neil Fryman. And I'm Toby Howell. Today, Chinese AI models are quickly narrowing the gap with the U.S. Then why African nations are dominating at the World Cup. It's Monday, June 29th. Let's ride.

So I was browsing through Twitter this weekend when I saw one post that stopped my scroll. Noah Khan, the singer-songwriter, wrote this, and I apologize for eating breakfast right now. If you have to poop at a show, please dear God, just go to the bathroom, LMAO. I've pooped my pants as much as the next 29-year-old, but you got to understand there's a venue worker out there with a 1,000-yard stare after dealing with that. He did not add any context, but apparently, this did in fact happen at Noah's show in Philadelphia on Friday night. Hey, that's a real fan right there. I mean, what are we doing here, Neil? First of all, it's far too early for this conversation. And needless to say, don't do this. But the craziest part of this is the line from Noah saying,

I poop my pants as much as the next 29 year old. How many times is that Noah? What is the proper amount for a 29 year old to have pooped their pants? We've probably already spent too much time on this. So I'm going to focus on keeping my bowels under control for the rest of this show. Hopefully you're doing the same at home. And now a word from our sponsor, On Investing, an original podcast from Charles Schwab. Each week host Liz Ann Saunders Schwab's chief investment strategist and Colin Martin headed a fixed income research and strategy for the Schwab Center for Financial Research, bring you fresh insights into what's happening in the markets and why and what the implications might be for your portfolio. Join Colin and Liz Ann as they explore questions like

How do you evaluate corporate bonds that look interesting and what sectors are on the move right now? You can download the latest episode and subscribe at Schwab.com slash on investing or wherever you get your podcasts. The Wired Newsroom is known for award-winning reporting on how technology shapes our world. On Wired's uncanny Valley, we take that curiosity even further. Each week, journalists from Wired break down the biggest stories in tech while speaking directly with the people building, challenging, and reshaping the future. Is the AI boom sustainable? How do you protect your privacy in an age of constant surveillance? Uncanny Valley tackles the questions driving today's tech debates and lighting up your group chats.

Listen to new episodes every Thursday, wherever you get your podcasts. 18 months ago, Chinese company DeepSeek dropped a cheap AI model that went toe to toe with America's best, causing a market meltdown. They might have just done it again. Another Chinese AI firm ZAI released a system that matches the performance of Anthropics, top model mythos in certain cybersecurity situations, while the market likely won't crash this time, it's a sign that China's tech industry has narrowed the gap with the U.S. in the high-stakes AI arms race. So let's talk about this Chinese model. It's called GLM 5.2, and according to security researchers, it is as effective at identifying security bugs as Anthropics or Open AIs top-of-the-line systems,

but falls short when it comes to other tasks. Another key distinction is that it's open source, like many other Chinese models, which means it's much cheaper to use than American tech. The New York Times reports that GLM 5.2 costs about one-eighth as much as Anthropics Clod, Opus 4.8. That means if you're a business leader trying to rein in runaway spending on AI, you're going to take a closer look. China's hitting the gas on AI comes as the U.S. government is pulling the emergency break on its own AI champions. Last week, the Trump administration limited the rollout of OpenAI's new model, angering CEO Sam Altman, and has stymied the release of anthropic cyber-focused models, mythos, and fable. Toby, all of a sudden, this arms race is neck and neck with huge geopolitical implications.

Yeah, cheaper is definitely the big selling point here. Because costing roughly an eighth as much, like, that is a massive amount of money that you're saving right there. One quote from a VC put it well, he said, do you need to drive a Ferrari everywhere? Probably not. The Ferrari being something like Claude Opus or Claude Mythos, whatever, top model that you are using. The fact that it is open source, companies can modify it, they can run it themselves, they don't have to pay API fees. Those are all massive selling points here, especially because it does feel like there's more restrictions on U.S. Anthropic models than there are Chinese models.

One startup founder literally said that, he said right now, there are more restrictions on models from Anthropic, which is just a crazy thing to say. So you factor in the availability of these Chinese models, the fact that they're open source, and the fact that they're cheaper, of course, are going to start making inroads on the big boys here in the U.S. Is there a possibility that your company is going to have you use a Chinese AI model? I mean, it's not crazy out of the question because a number of the big cloud computing providers like Microsoft are now considering whether to include Chinese models on their platforms. And Microsoft has also already started offering access to a bunch of these systems, Deepseek,

ZAI Minimax, and a bunch of other Chinese startup. So this is a huge question. about, I mean, we've talked on the show in recent weeks about how companies are trying to rein in their spending on AI because they had this token maxing phase and then they looked at their budget and said, well, actually, we can't afford all this because Anthropic is very expensive. Open AI is very expensive. Well, China is developing these super cheap AI models. I'm not sure about whether we can do this geopolitically, but it's something that, you know, your CTO might start thinking about. How are they doing this? That's the big question. How is China

making these top tier models at a fraction of the cost. One thing that maybe U.S. companies would say is that they are doing something called distillation where you basically ask a frontier model a lot of questions about how it works and then you use those answers to copy the technology. So Anthropic recently accused Ali Baba of doing this, creating 24,000 fraudulent accounts to try to distill their top models. But it goes a little bit deeper than just copying. China's open source strategy is a big portion of it. Chinese companies have been subsidized by government development and they've embraced this open source philosophy where they are trying to kind of race to the bottom, release very powerful models at extremely low prices. It's almost like what's happened in

manufacturing over the last couple of decades where they are trying, it's a race to the bottom. But if the bet is that you put out these open source models, this next technological revolution is going to be built on Chinese technology. That's the bet that they're trying to. to make right now. We'll see if over time the Chinese government can continue to subsidize these models. But obviously you'd be shaken in your boots right now if your model is so much more expensive than an equally powerful one coming out of China. So the U.S. government is looking at this and at the same time slowing the role of OpenAI and Anthropic. This happened on Friday. So Open AI announced three new models but said that the U.S. government asked it not to release it publicly

and only to quote, a small group of trusted partner, Sam Altman, the CEO, was not happy with this, as well as a bunch of other critics and how the government is really putting its thumb on the scale of these releases of the models. He said, I just don't like the idea of the government picking the customers confident we will get to a better place. Adam Kovice, who's the CEO of this tech lobbying group, wrote American AI innovation running into Trump's patronage and tribute admin is no when this comes after two weeks ago when the federal law. government also told Anthropic to not let any foreign nationals use Fable and Mythos, its top cybersecurity related models. So you're seeing the U.S. government take a much more aggressive

interventionist role in the rollout of American models. Meanwhile, China is catching up. Let's move on. The Swift Observatory is a telescope that has been up in space since 2004, but its middle age is catching up to it and it's falling out of orbit. Swift is only designed to last two years anyway, so 20 years beyond its mission timeline, it's all right to just let it fall and burn up, no big deal. But tomorrow, NASA is spending $30 million to save it in a never-before attempted mission. The idea is simple. Launch another spacecraft, have it chased down Swift, and boost it higher. But the execution is anything but. NASA contracted a startup called Catalyst Space just nine months ago to build and launch a rescue spacecraft called Link

that will use its ion engines and three robotic arms to rendezvous with Swift and slowly drag it higher. Again, this is an old satellite. Why go through all the trouble? Well, Swift is really good at its job of spotting and quickly documenting gamma ray bursts the biggest explosions in the universe. Emphasis on the quickly, Swift can turn and observe a big explosion in minutes, whereas the Hubble Space Telescope, for example, takes two days to repoint. Neil Swift is sort of like messy in this World Cup. NASA thinks it's got a few more good years left, so it's going all out to save it. Yeah, they're calling it the ultimate battle against time and gravity. So nine months ago, NASA goes to Catalyst, which is an unproven Arizona-based startup and says, I have two tasks for you.

This needs to happen by this summer, and B, don't make things worse. And here's why it's so urgent. Right now, Swift is on an altitude of 224. miles above the Earth's surface. Once it hits 185 miles, which is expected to by about October, it will fall and burn up in the atmosphere. So what Swift is going to do is send this little robot. It's about the size of a small fridge up to Swift. It's called Link. They're going to send it up to Swift and hopefully grab onto it and then push it back up to about 373 miles in low Earth orbit. So that is the goal. You have two tasks. Get it done by June or July. And also,

don't make things worse. But I'm not sure they could get any worse. The worst possible case scenario here is that it just burns up in the atmosphere and we lose Swift forever. I mean, yeah, the best possible scenario is NASA does prove that servicing a satellite could become a way to extend expensive missions. I mean, Swift costs $250 million back in 2004 to put up into orbit. The fact that we could, you know, get a couple more years of service out of it is a good thing.

And you're right. Yeah, though the worst case scenario is what was going to happen anyways. Swift is up there. It's a lame duck. It doesn't have any propulsion system itself. And kind of the reason why it is falling out of space is that solar storms have expanded Earth's upper atmosphere because when a solar storm hits the atmosphere, it heats up, which means it expands. And that has caused more atmospheric drag. So that's why Swift is losing altitude a little bit quicker than expected. Also, we just got to give the flowers to this satellite because it's done a lot of great stuff. Not only the fact that it is very mobiling, can turn and see these explosions very quickly. It also has confirmed many of the universe's heaviest elements, gold, platinum. They are created during those violent cosmic events that it is observing. So I guess we know where gold comes from. And then two, it discovered the boat, which is the brightest of all time gamma ray burst in 2022. That's the most energetic explosion ever observed. So this is my goat because it observed the boat. It's a very cool satellite,

but the one problem is that it wasn't intended to be serviced in space. There's no docking ports. There's no grappling fixtures. There's no handles for this robot to latch onto. And that's what makes it so hard. A bunch of other satellites like James Webb Telescope, they launched that with the understanding that they had probably have to do some work on it. But back in 2004, when they launched Swift, they were like,

well, just let it go, and then it'll burn up. But now they're like, actually want to fix it. But we didn't actually include a way to fix it. But the big deal for this is Catalyst, which is the startup thinks this could be a huge industry where if Elon's setting data centers to space and we're building other big infrastructure pieces in space, well, they could be the maintenance guys. They could be the waste management. They could be the folks that do all of the repairs and the maintenance.

And probably the nearest situation that they'll have to deal with is Hubble in 20228, which they're expecting to have to fix or service or push up back to orbit in a couple of years. They're definitely putting Hubble in all their decks because everyone, loves Hubble. Like, it's just the most loved space satellite. The fact that we even know its name, everyone knows his name, shows that. So I would imagine that they have an eyes towards 2028 because that is something that is beloved and that is something that a lot of people are going to want saved as well. Let's move on. It's winners of the weekend time, the segment where Neil and I picked two stories that had a better weekend than someone who did all their laundry and

meal pre-prepped. I won the pre-show game of the radio game, so I'm up first. And my winner of the weekend is African teams at the World Cup because they have performed extremely well so far. Four years ago, Morocco changed the conversation around African soccer. They became the first African nation to reach a World Cup semi-final, going toe to toe with traditional powers along the way. Come this World Cup, it looks like Morocco wasn't a one-off. Africa brought a record 10 representatives to the expanded 48 team tournament, and nine of them advanced to the knockout rounds. Those nine that advanced gave us some vintage performances, along the way. Cape Verde held a mighty Spain to a draw. Ghana took points off of England,

Egypt, Ivory Coast, Algeria, and DR Congo all broke through to the round of 32, and Morocco once again looked every bit of contender after tying Brazil in the group stage. In years past, it was always that one-off surprise team that made a run, but Africa has invested in facilities, has better academies, great youth development, and has done well recruiting diaspora players. Neil, South Africa became the first of those nine teams to be eliminated yesterday at the hands of Canada. But it doesn't seem so far-fetched anymore to an imagine an African nation winning the World Cup in the future. My favorite story is probably Congo, the DRC. So Congo have not played in a World Cup since 1974, which was their first and only time. And they weren't even known

as Congo then. They were a country called Zaire. And they lost their three matches by a combined score of 14 to zero. But now they're back. They tied Portugal in that first game and they beat Uzbekistan. So now they're going on. This is a huge country, 116 million people, the 15 most populous country in the entire world. So if you could marshal these people who live there and the people who moved abroad to play for your team, that's a ton of talent possibly. So I'm really excited by them. And they also have probably the best fan at the entire World Cup. I don't know if you've seen him, but his name is Michael Cucca Mbola Dinga. And he stands in the stands while the game is going on for the entire 90 minutes

and he remains perfectly still and his right arm is raised standing like just completely like a statue and that is a tribute to Congo's first prime minister after they gained independence from Belgium who was assassinated just a few months into office named Lumumba. So his nickname is Lumumba Vaya or Lumumba

lives. He was denied a visa to attend the last match so we'll see somebody took his place actually of doing the statue thing but we'll see if he gets to go to their match against England on Wednesday. I mean, you hit the nail on the head that talent has never necessarily been the biggest issue. Africa has players. They've always had fantastic players. The issue has been just investment in, you know, facilities, in infrastructure, in training parks,

because a lot of African players end up leaving for Europe early on because the development opportunities over there are better than the ones at home. It's actually very similar to what happens in America right now. but now you've been seeing investment by a lot of different countries. Morocco is definitely the blueprint. They have one of the world's top training facilities that they've recently built. Ivory Coast has recently built 24 different fields in the lead up to this World Cup. So when you see people invest in the infrastructure portion, then the talent can show their stuff, basically, on a world stage. So I think that this is not the last world here of Africans becoming much more.

of a dominant force on the global soccer stage. It's just remarkable. Nine out of 10 to qualify for the knockout stages. The previous record was two, and that's the highest share of any continent. The other region of the world, I want to shout out as maybe a sub-winner of the weekend, is Yugoslavia.

So Marco Yukic on Twitter pointed this out that despite making up just 0.2% of the global population, players with ethnic heritage of the former Yugoslavia represent 7.5% of players at the World Cup round of 32, and that includes Kristen Pulisich of the United States, whose father is from Croatia. The former Yugoslavia. Former Yugoslavia.

It doesn't exist. Now there's a bunch of Balkan countries around there, but they are overly represented just like African teams at the World Cup. All right, we're going to take a quick break and come back with Neal's winner of the weekend right after this. It's freezing in here. What gives? I'm trying to preserve my freshness, Neil.

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I swear I heard you say, chow. It's this linen shirt from Quince. It's turning me into a guy who summers in Europe. I got the same shirt. The linen is so light and breathable. I started picturing myself on a yacht in the Mediterranean. That's Quince for you. They're European linen shirts and pants keep you.

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I pop a watermelon poutes for a little extra jolt in the morning. New customers can get 15% off with code MBD at Take Ultra. That's take ultra.com, code MBD. My winner is the good old bus, which is enjoying a mini-renaissance following the implosion of Spirit Airlines. The Ultra Budget Spirit was known as the Greyhound of the Sky, so it shouldn't be a surprise that people are flocking to the Greyhounds of the Ground in the aftermath of Spirit's liquidation. According to the Wall Street Journal, within the first week of Spirit's demise, Flix North America,

the parent company of Greyhound and Flix Bus, reported a 30% surge in passengers over the prior year across its routes that overlap with spirit schedule, while search interest rose 20%. Traveling between cities by bus has been ticking up since COVID gutted the bus industry, forcing half of inner city operators and charters to shut down. In 2025, passengers rode 43.9 billion miles on motor coaches, which is up roughly 9% from a year earlier. It's more than twice the level from 2020, but still about 37% lower than 2015 levels. buses still have a long way to go to become an attractive option for travelers who can afford trains or planes. Stations are often outdated. The coaches themselves are uncomfortable, and customer service feels like it's managed by Stan Shunpike.

But they do offer value. They get you from point A to point B on the cheap. And at a time when inflation is pinching bank accounts, gas prices are elevated and affordable airline alternatives are evaporating. People are taking a second look at the bus. High gas prices actually help buses not hurt them. While the airline industry is suffering under these extremely high jet fuel prices, buses are like, actually our prices haven't really budged whatsoever. So the very things that drove Spirit under are also the very same forces that allowed buses to succeed. The thing that is holding buses back is still just the general image around it.

I mean, if you look at the Yelp rating and the TripAdvisor rating of Greyhound currently, 1.3 stars on Yelp, 1.3 stars on TripAdvisor. So clearly there's some issues with customer service, with broken bathrooms on the delays. Bus is breaking down, dirty stations. So that's probably the next wave of change that needs to happen in the bus industry for it to truly, you know, take the mantle of the budget airline industry, which has had its fair share of struggles. And Greyhound is making some investments through their German owner flicks. So they are trying to cut the average age of their vehicles in half, they ordered 185 new buses last year. They've 80 more on order. They also are trying this new design trend. So this is the hot new thing in

coach design. If you're curious, it's called two and one. And so it's if you're, it's two seats on one side of the bus and then one seat on the other. And that's trying to alleviate maybe some of the anxiety or uncomfortable, comfortability with if you're a single or solo traveler, you don't have to sit next to someone. So someone like myself who might travel just to go down to Philly or Massachusetts on a bus, having that ability to have like one seat and then the window and then there's nobody there. I mean, that makes it a little more attractive. And the other thing they need to do is upgrade the stations. Now, if you tell someone in New York City about Port Authority, they'll probably roll your eyes and say that's the worst station, like even worse than Penn Station. But it looks like

a bunch of cities are upgrading their Greyhound Bus Terminal. Chicago just voted actually last week to buy and renovate the former Greyhound Bus Terminal for $19 million. Atlanta, Boston, Detroit, Los Angeles some other cities that are renovating their bus stations. I feel like you'd be the type of guy who would want to sit next to a stranger on a bus ride. Would you not? You want to do your own thing over there? I don't talk to people on planes or buses. I just like to read or just plug in my headphones. I don't know, like especially if you start a conversation early in the trip. Then you're done. You don't know. I feel you can start a conversation with 10 minutes left because there isn't out. But it gets a little too awkward for me if it's like a four hour bus ride and you start talking. You're like, okay, what do we do now?

Here's the bus ride that you would not want to sit next to somebody else on. Greyhound offers a Boston to Seattle trip. That takes 104 hours. 104 hours. That's when you wish Spirit Airlines still existed because no matter how cheap that might be, I don't think that is cruel and unusual punishment. That's a great fantasy football punishment, by the way. Send a loser of your league on 104-hour cross-country Greyhound's bus trip.

But here's the thing. They went on price. So from Nashville to Atlanta, round trip on a bus. It's just four hours. It costs $75 to just go to Nashville to Atlanta and back. And I looked on Southwest Airlines website this morning for that same flight. And the cheapest I could find, this is like if you leave at Tuesday at the worst time and come back on Wednesday at the worst time, I mean, it's about double that round trip.

So buses are going to lean into their value proposition if they can make it a little more comfortable and gloss up their actual vehicles and their stations. I think they are in a prime position to win in this inflationary atmosphere. It's Monday, so here's what you need to know to stay ahead in the week ahead. On Wall Street, the two big moments to watch are the end of Q2 on Wednesday, the start of the second half of the year, and the jobs report arriving on Thursday. Stocks have had a solid year so far up more than 7%. There's been a ton of volatility in tech shares lately, and the NASDAQ has lost ground for five sessions in a row. And then there's the jobs report, which is expected to show the U.S.

gained a healthy 135,000 jobs last month. That's obviously great news for people and the economy, but would also raise the chances that the next Fed move is a rate hike. Yeah, when it comes to the market, the S&P 500 also lost for the fifth session in a row to end last week. That's the longest losing streak since last August. And according to the Wall Street Journal, the two streaks of the NASDAQ falling five days in row and the S&P 500 falling five days in a row in the same calendar week. That hasn't happened since April 2024. So it's been a lot of up and not a lot of down at the same time.

As for the jobs report, nine of 19 Fed officials projected at least one rate increased by the years end. That is up from zero back in March. So again, that strong jobs report could be the very thing that tips the fed's hand and forces them to actually hike rates rather than cut them. The classic good news equals bad news. In D.C., it's the final week of the Supreme Court term, and major decisions will be handed down regarding President Trump's executive power. The nine justices will release rulings on topics like birthright citizens. transgender athletes, and most importantly for the economic world, whether Trump has the power to fire FTC members and Fed Governor Lisa Cook, decisions are expected by Friday.

So I was reading Axios and they were kind of given the lowdown on where they think the justices are leaning. And so far, the court has seemed a little skeptical of Trump's ability to fire Cook, specifically because of how it might undermine Fed independence. That's the big question. But according to Axios, the court seemed more open to Trump firing FDC members, which historically for the last 90 years of so have operated as an independent agency have been protected so we will see come Friday

but that's generally where the tea leaves are pointing right now. In sports the World Cup's round of 32 has begun so things are getting real. If you lose you go home. After a strong group stage the U.S. will play Bosnia and Herzegovina on Wednesday night at 8 p.m. Eastern. Start figuring

out your watch plans now. Plus Wimbledon begins today and the big story is Serena Williams' return to competitive tennis. The 44-year-old legend has entered the singles draw and she'll also play alongside her sister Venus in the doubles event. So my fun fact for the round of 32 games that kicked off last Nate, this comes courtesy of Max Radwan on X. Yesterday's match between Canada and South Africa was just the third knockout match in the history of the Men's World Cup to be contested by teams outside of Europe and South America and the first ever to not feature teams from those regions or the U.S.

So it kind of goes back to our previous story, honestly, about how much bigger this World Cup is and how much smaller teams and countries are actually doing it much better. So that was cool. And then as for Serena, Messi's done all right. I can't talk about Messi this World Cup. Why not Serena?

She can go on a run too. Absolutely. And finally, the United States of America will celebrate its 250th birthday on Saturday, July 4th with fireworks, hot dogs, parades, lots of beer. And while it's going to be a short week over here, it will also be a scorching one.

A heat dome is going to park itself over the eastern half of the country and cause widespread temps in the 90s and 100s later in the week. Most essential part of your 4th of July cookout shade and sunscreen. Shade and sunscreen. That's all you need. You don't even need beer. You just need shade and sunscreen. I'm also thinking about these world, obviously also think about

the World Cup, but they're going to be playing under this heat dome from Wednesday through Friday. I mean, the temperatures look absolutely atrocious, 90s, 100s. And, you know, he'd be making fun of the the hydration breaks for the group stage, but it seems like they will absolutely be needed for both the players and the fans because it's going to be so hot. So everyone start making some preparations to stay cool. That is all the time we have. Thanks for starting your morning with us.

Have a wonderful start to this holiday week. To share your thoughts on the episode or anything else, send an email to Morning Brew Daily at morningbrew.com or DM us on Instagram at Ambidaly Show. Let's roll the credits. Emily Milliron is our supervising producer. Raymond Lute is our senior producer. Our producer is Olivia Graham, and our associate producer is Olivia Lake. Technical direction by Nina Miller. I always throw hair and makeup onto the bus. Devin Emery is our president and our show is a production of Morning Brew. Great show today, Neil. Let's run it back tomorrow.