Morning Brew Daily - Crypto Cheers For US ‘Crypto Reserve’ & RIP Skype

Episode Date: March 3, 2025

Episode 530: Neal’s back! Neal and Toby chat about Trump’s announcement of the first US strategic crypto reserve that caused crypto prices to spike. Then, a tense episode in the oval office has some wondering if that’s opened the possibility of companies returning to Russia. Plus, Skype is shutting down for good, says Microsoft. Meanwhile, the Oscars and a Chinese ice cream chain are the Weekend Winners. Finally, a preview of the week ahead. Subscribe to Morning Brew Daily for more of the news you need to start your day. Share the show with a friend, and leave us a review on your favorite podcast app. Listen to Morning Brew Daily Here: https://link.chtbl.com/MBD Watch Morning Brew Daily Here: https://www.youtube.com/@MorningBrewDailyShow There are risks involved with investing in ETFs, including possible loss of money. ETFs are subject to risks similar to those of stocks. Investments focus in a particular sector, such as technology, are subject to greater risks and are more greatly impacted by market volatility, than more diversified investments. The Nasdaq-100 Index® includes the 100 largest non-financial companies listed on the Nasdaq. An investment cannot be made directly into an index.  As of Feb. 7, 2025, the Invesco QQQ ETF held 8.68% in Apple Inc., 7.69% in Microsoft and 5.34% in Google. Holdings are subject to change and are not buy or sell recommendations.  Invesco Distributors, Inc. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Good morning, Brew Daily Show. I'm Neil Fryman. And I'm Toby Howell. Today, pour one out for the OG video calling brand because Microsoft is killing off Skype. Then Trump is establishing a U.S. Strategic Crypto Reserve, find out which tokens made the cut. It's Monday, March 3rd. Let's ride. Neil, back in the saddle. I've been spreading lots of salacious rumors explaining your absence over the past week. So if anyone asks how your time working as a backup dancer for Bruno Mars was, just roll with it. But in reality, glad you took a much deserved break that you spent on a week-long trip to Vietnam. Give us a quick rose and thorn from your time away.

Okay, first of all, shout out to you and for holding down the fort. You guys did a great job. So I have a couple of roses. Vietnam is an incredible country. I encourage everyone to go. First is the motorbike and scooter culture of Ho Chi Minh City. It is crazy. It is as advertised.

So when you call an Uber there, it's actually grab. It's not a car, for the most part. It's a scooter. So some person comes, and then you just hop on the back, and it's a little nerve-wracking as first. But then you realize that it is really the best way to get around the city. Then in another city, we did a cooking class. Shout-out van for your incredible teaching skills. We went to the market to get all these fresh ingredients, came back, and I learned how to cook.

So I will definitely be cooking up some shaking beef for you, Toby. And then finally, we did a quick stop over in Hong Kong on the way back. And arose there was definitely the peak. There's this mountain top where you look over to the city. And it was probably the most breathtaking view I have ever seen better than the Grand Canyon, better than anything else. It was, it was astonishing. And then I guess, okay, we'll talk about a thorn.

That was the 15-hour flight back from Hong Kong to New York City. It is a long flight, but I tried to mitigate that by just crushing movies. I watched three, Conclave, before. sunrise and apocalypse. Now, all three were excellent. Murder is a row right there. Well, it is great to have you back. Glad you got some R and R. And yes, I will take you up on that shaking beef offer. Now a word from our sponsor, Invesco QQQ. Question for you, Neil. If you could time travel to the future, what's the first thing you do? Easy. Bet on the Eagles to win the Super Bowl again.

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Trump announced a move that set the crypto world on fire, the establishment of a U.S. strategic crypto reserve. The announcement follows through on a campaign promise from Trump and furthers his pledge to position the U.S. as the crypto capital of the world. It also provides a shot of adrenaline for the crypto market that had been in a post-election. funk. Bitcoin had dipped below $80,000 to a three-month low, but jumped 10% on the back of the announcement. Ethereum, XRP, Solana, and Cardano also jumped double digits on the news that they

were to be included in the reserve, with Cardona soaring more than 60% alone. If those names sound familiar, they're all part of the eight biggest cryptocurrencies by market cap, whose post-announcement rallies help push the total market cap of the industry back over $3 trillion. Neal, after Trump took office, There was all this enthusiasm around crypto, but outside of the SEC dropping some investigations and the launch of some meme coins, there wasn't a whole lot of action. But now here is some action along with some controversy. Perhaps the timing was not a coincidence with Bitcoin falling 28% from its peak. What even is a strategic reserve?

Well, it's typically a stock of a critical resource that you can tap during emergency times, times of crisis when you need this, when you need access to this resource. Probably the best known example is the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve, which we set up after the Arab oil embargo in the mid-70s. That is oil, you know, it kind of runs our energy system at the moment. So that is, you know, an example of something that you would probably have a strategic reserve of. Canada has a strategic reserve of maple. Sierra China has one of pork, metals and grains.

So the big question is why do we need a one for Bitcoin, which I don't think anyone would consider a critical resource? It is more probably the fact that it was a campaign promise. This was floated over the campaign trail by Trump saying that maybe a strategic Bitcoin reserve would be something that he would establish once in office, which is why I said there's some controversy around this because it's not just Bitcoin in this strategic reserve. There are coins like XRP, there are coins like Cardano, Solana in it. And so that is leading to questions because those are not decentralized. centralized currencies at all. There's founding teams there. And there's a lot of crypto donors from those neck of the woods, essentially, that gave money to Trump's campaign. And now here he is

turning around in essentially pumping those bags of those crypto holders, which led to a lot of pushback saying, like, hey, these are the wealthy donors that helped propel you to a victory in the election. And now here you are, including some of the tokens that will increase their wealth here. There's a conflict of interest there. There's a conflict of ethics there as well. And even those criticisms were coming from people in the crypto community. Coinbase CEO, Brian Armstrong, tweeted after this news came out that he was still sifting to the details. And again, we don't know a ton of details. We're probably going to get more of those on Friday.

Trump administration is hosting this big crypto summit at the White House, the first ever. And Brian Armstrong said, I probably would have just done Bitcoin because it is the least volatile of these, of this. of these cryptocurrencies, the ones you mentioned, are quite volatile. They're smaller than Bitcoin. And the thought was that it would just be Bitcoin. So, yeah, certainly pushback from the crypto community saying this is, you know, another setback for us and our goal to legitimize this industry. It does feel like Trump's pro-C crypto agenda has pretty much come into focus now.

We have deregulation. We have the SEC dropping lawsuits. I mean, XRP, which, you know, is associated with Ripple, went from an S&A. lawsuit to now part of a strategic crypto reserve in the span of a few months. So that's been a big 180. And then also you have just this establishment of a national reserve. So it seems like the boxes that he wanted to check when it comes to crypto have now been checked. And meanwhile, yeah, crypto prices have skyrocketed in response to this. The total market cap of crypto gained $300 billion yesterday after this announcement. The weekend's news was dominated by the fallout

from Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky's astonishing and very public blowup with President Trump and Vice President J.D. Vance in the Oval Office on Friday. Shell-shocked European leaders gathered on Sunday to craft a plan to provide security for Ukraine against Russia as the U.S.'s support for Kiev appears to have reached a low point under the Trump administration. Declaring, we are at a crossroads in history, UK Prime Minister Kier Starmor said his country and France formed a coalition of the willing that would boost military spending and put boots on the ground to defend Ukraine in the event of a pause in fighting. Meanwhile, in the U.S., while Trump's team is lambasting Ukraine, they appear to be warming up to Russia as they work together on a ceasefire

deal that sidelines Europe. And this sudden thawing of an icy relationship raises an interesting question. Would American companies that pulled out of Russia when it invaded three years ago returned? Trump and his top lieutenants seemed to be hoping so. A week ago, Secretary of State Marco Rubio hyped up the, quote, pretty unique, potentially historic economic, partnerships between U.S. companies and Russia. Trump himself said, it's a great thing. If we settle this, it's great for Russia, too, because we could do deals there. Russian President Vladimir Putin also welcomed the idea saying he'd be open to cooperation with U.S. companies. Toby, this would be a stunning reversal. More than 1,000 multin

multinational corporations scampered out of Russia in 2022, and Western countries have placed heavy economic sanctions on business dealings in Russia. Would American CEOs consider going back? Not that many companies seem too eager to reenter the market for a variety of reasons. One, Russia's government obviously still has incredible influence over the economic outcomes that happen in the country. Two, inflation is still rearing pretty unchecked there in this war environment, wartime environment. Interest rates are also uncomfortably high.

They're pushing 21% right now to try to cool off and not send the country into hyperinflation. And there is some issues with just the rule of law. It only exists kind of in theory in Russia. So all of those are not that welcoming to a multinational corporation to set up shop and do business there. Really outside of the energy sector, there's not a ton of companies that are saying, yippee, Kaye, I want to get back into Russia here. So even though that we're hearing this dialogue floated, I don't know if we're going to see a flood of those thousands of multinational corporations reentering this market. Most of those companies that left were doing, you know, about 1% of their global revenue in Russia before the war.

I think the biggest one that I can think of is McDonald's, which had 9% of its global revenue in Ukraine and Russia. McDonald's severed. So did so many, you know, American brands that pulled out. So they weren't doing a ton of business in Russia beforehand. Now that the economy, you know, is soaring inflation and interest rates are at, 21%. It does not appear like, yeah, they're going to be rushing back. There could be opportunities for the energy industry, as you mentioned, to go. And they were the biggest multinational players

in Russia even before the war started. And there are reports out from the Financial Times that a Putin ally and an ex-Russian spy was courting American investors to restart or to start up the Nord Stream 2 pipeline, which delivered natural gas from Russia to Germany. So I'll have to watch what happens on the energy front. But I think even energy companies are pretty scarred. I mean, go back to 2022, ExxonMobil took a $4.6 billion charge against earnings in that year for discontinuing the work that it was doing in Russia. So even big oil companies are going, ah, there's just a lot of scar tissue there as well. And then even if we go back to before this war broke out, Russia was not that big of a trade partner for the United States in general. They have about the same amount of

trade with the U.S. that we do with Belgium. So it's not this massive, massive market, even though it is a large market in the global scheme of things. With the U.S., there wasn't that much deal being done. In 2021, there was $36 billion of trade, which again, it resembles the trade that we do with Belgium. So who knows, even if there is this rhetoric coming from this administration that we do want to open up business in Russia again, I don't know if the juice is worth the squeeze when it comes to Russia. Just before the weekend, Microsoft announced that it is planning to sunset its video conferencing app Skype by May, telling its users to switch to teams instead. And I tell you what, Neil,

I haven't seen someone blow a head start this badly since the Warriors choked a 3-1 lead. Founded it all the way back in 2003, Skype was Zoom before there was Zoom, offering high-quality, long-distance voice and video calls. It made its way onto Oprah as her app of choice for video interviews and racked up millions of users before finding its way into Microsoft's loving corporate and base for $8.5 billion, the biggest acquisition ever at the time. Unfortunately, it turned out to be more internet explorer than YouTube in terms of success. Its overall glitchiness left it vulnerable to challengers like FaceTime and WhatsApp,

and eventually Microsoft began phasing it out. Neil, in a world now dominated by Teams, Google Meet, Zoom, FaceTime, WhatsApp, Skype was the OG, but one that never quite hit its stride like many thought it was. Yeah, the writing was on the wall here. Microsoft CEO Satya Nadell, who wasn't the one who bought Skype. That was Steve Ballmer. He hadn't mentioned Skype on an earnings call since 2017. This was a long sunset period, like those long winter sunsets. And, you know, Microsoft, you mentioned teams. This is what this is all about. Microsoft is putting all of its eggs into teams, which is the workplace messaging software that saw a big bump during COVID, and it's leaning, you know, it's basically just bundling everything

into that, which is what Microsoft does. So if you are not a fan of teams, then get on board because everything that Microsoft does is getting thrown into teams at this point. I do just want to give Skype its props, though, because in our current world, we don't even realize the fact that it is pretty magical that you can talk to someone across the world with really high-quality voice and video calls. But at the time, it was this huge unlock for startups, because it was, It was usually only Fortune 500 companies that could afford the setups that could have good quality video with someone across the world. But now here was this very cheap option.

And it was supposed to supercharge productivity, which it did to an extent. eBay actually originally bought it. It wanted to use it to help, you know, buyers and sellers connect. They thought it would lubricate, you know, this online economy. And it didn't quite work. That was also considered a pretty big write down for the business. And then Microsoft swept in because they saw like a similar vision. for it, and it just didn't quite hit its stride. So even though, I will say, even as recently as

2017, it was still being used, Trump used it, two field questions from journalists at the White House. So as recently as 2017, it was still being used in high profile scenarios. But now you're right. It's just been eaten alive by Microsoft Teams. It's been eaten alive by WhatsApp, eaten alive by Facebook or FaceTime. So it had a big peak, but, you know, pour one out for Skype. Up next, it is time. for our winners of the weekend. We're the Hartford, with decades of experience

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Welcome to our winners of the weekend segment where Neil and I picked two stories that had a better weekend than Neil drinking in the sights and sounds of Ho Chi Minh City. Neil, I won the pre-show contest of who did the most shows last week, so I am up first. My winner of the weekend is Anora because the Academy Awards were last night, but they may as well have been renamed the Anora Awards. The movie took home the night's top prize for Best Picture, while also snagging best original screen pay, best film editing and directing, making director Sean Baker the first to win four Oscars in one night for the same film, including Best Picture. And on top of all that, 25-year-old Mikey Madison also won Best Actress for her role in the film. Though it may not have felt like it, other movies were honored last night. Adrian Brody won Best Actor for his role in The Brutelist. Kieran Culkin won Best Supporting Actor, meaning he is suddenly halfway to an Egot.

Zoe Sal Donna won Best Supporting Actress for her role in Amelia Perez, which had a muted night outside of winning Best Original Song as well. And Box Office hits Wicked and Dune 2 snuck in to win two awards each. Neil Conan was pretty funny. The movies were good this year, and we'll have to see about the viewership numbers, but it seemed like overall a pretty solid night for the Oscars. Well, congrats to Enora. The big problem is that no one saw it.

It actually set the record for the worst domestic box office performance for a Best Picture Award outside of the pandemic. It brought in $15.6 million in ticket sales here in North America. And that is not a lot at all. There is a glaring absence of big blockbusters in the best picture category. the only two that brought in, you know, sizable ticket sales were Wicked and Dune 2. And then the other big blockbuster of the year, which was Inside Out 2 brought in $1.7 billion. It was beat by a much, much, much smaller movie flow for Best Animated Picture.

So that was, that is the big, you know, cloud hanging over the Oscars that will anyone watch because no one watched the movies that they were being honored. I know. How about this, stat, courtesy of the Big Picture Podcast from 1997 to 2004, every best picture winner gross at least $100 million at the domestic box office. In the 20 years since then, only five movies have made that much. So you are right. The best picture category has slowly shrunk over time. That being said, though, Anora was made on a $6 million budget. That is the third lowest ever adjusting for inflation. The only ones lower are Marty, which was this

film back in 1955 and Moonlight in 2016. So it's not a financial failure. It just was a small budget movie that had a small, you know, domestic footprint. That being said, though, I do think there was some excitement around this. I mean, Wicked and Dune 2 were two large films there. They didn't win as many awards as, you know, I wanted them to. I think Dune 2 should have been up for a lot more nominations. Timothy Shalame was way better than in that than a complete unknown. So that's just my own personal horse there as well. And Conclave, which is the movie you saw. We both agreed should have won a little bit more. But I think overall it was a pretty solid night. people liked Conan, he kept the show moving, was funny.

So I think this will be seen as a relative success for the Oscars. My winner of the week is Mishwe, and if you're wondering what the heck a Mishue is, A, you don't live in China, and B, it's recently become the biggest food and beverage chain in the world. Mishue Ice Cream and Tea has expanded to 45,000 locations across Asia and Australia by the end of last year, toppling McDonald's in Starbucks as the fast food chain with the most stores in the world. And today, it aimed to supercharge that growth by going public in Hong Kong at a valuation of about $10 billion, the biggest in a series of bubble tea companies that have IPOed in recent

years. So what do you get when you order from Mishue? Really sugary drinks and ice cream on the cheap. Like, really cheap. Its signature products like lemon water and a fresh ice cream cone start at about 25 cents delivering value at a time when Chinese consumers and college students in particular, are tightening their wallets and looking for discounts. And it also helps that Mishui's got a lovable mascot, Snow King, which the Wall Street Journal describes as a love child of Frosty the Snowman and Michelin Man. Similar to McDonald's grimace, Snow King has become a favorite subject of memes on social media, allowing the company to embed itself in Chinese pop culture. Toby, the only thing that could derail this company is broken ice cream machine.

This is an incredible company. I mean, it's reviving hopes that Hong Kong can have a solid IPO market again. There was a ton of demand for this IPO. And I do think that it is just a company that a lot of people should begin to know about it. I haven't heard of Mishui before this, but 45,000 shops across the world is massive. Generally, what they do is one that compete on price. They're about half as expensive as most of its peers for similar product. But also, they're just a supply chain juggernaut. Since 2007, they've been establishing these raw material factories across you know, China. They've built out these robust production factories. They also grow their own fruit. All of this in the hopes of just creating a supply chain that can get product to anywhere in

China within 12 hours. When you have 45,000 stores, you do need that supply chain mastery. So that is essentially its business models. They sell straws to their own franchisees. They send equipment to their own franchisees. And that is where they're getting most of their money from. So expansion is the name of the game for them. and expand, they have. And their first day was off to a great start. They jumped 40% in their first day of trading in Hong Kong. And these two brothers who run this company and the one guy who started are now filthy rich.

They are absolutely bubble tea billionaires. They are worth a combined $8.1 billion after this IPO. That's more than former Starbucks CEO, Howard Schultz. Okay, on Wednesdays, we wear pink. And on Mondays, we preview the week ahead. and let's dive right in because the upcoming week could be seismic for the global economy. President Trump's tariffs on China, Canada, and Mexico, which had been delayed for a month, are scheduled to go into effect tomorrow, March 4th.

Canada and Mexico have been feverishly trying to make Trump happy to avoid crippling 25% tariffs, and it may be working because yesterday Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnik implied those rates could be lower, calling it a fluid situation. Depending on the extent of the tariffs, supply chain chaos, is expected for many American companies, especially for carmakers. Ford CEO Jim Farley said that tariffs on Mexico and Canada would, quote, blow a hole in the U.S. auto industry. Yeah, Scott Bassett also said the Treasury Department is looking into potentially appointing an

affordability SAR to address some of these inflationary pressures. So there is always the fear that these tariffs will jack up prices for consumers. So they're trying to, the Trump administration is trying to say, hey, we are looking into creating an affordability council to make sure that these tariffs don't hit everyday Americans that hard. But again, there's always the asterix here. Let's see if these tariffs actually go into effect or if they're just another device to gain concessions from trade partners like Canada and Mexico. And even without tariffs, it'll be a key week for gauging the health of the U.S. economy. The February jobs report drops on Friday, the first since Doge has taken a

chainsaw to the federal workforce. And retailers like Target and Costco will report earnings at a time when consumer confidence is fading. We had this all-you-can-eat buffet of economic data last week, existing home sales, jobless claims, GDP data, consumer confidence. It all painted a rather uncertain picture. Now let's throw in a jobs report and some bellwethers of consumer spending like Target and Costco. It should be a fun week. Tomorrow evening, President Trump will deliver his first speech to a joint session of Congress. This would typically be known as the State of the Union address, but it's not officially

designated as that for a president's first speech to Congress. Little civic lesson for you. In the address, Trump is expected to celebrate the... shakeup he's given Washington in his first 40 days in office and lay out his plans for the year ahead. But if his last state of the union is any indication, it could get a little rowdy. Yeah, there will be some pageantry. There will be some made-for-TV moments. If you recall last state of the union, like you mentioned in 2018, there was Trump kind of avoiding Nancy Pelosi's handshake and then Pelosi theatrically ripping up Trump's remarks behind them. So you are right.

There will be some drama if there's any indication based off of his previous state of union. That was in 2020. The timeline is hazy. Oh, true. Two very different festivals are taking place this week. First is South by Southwest. The film, media, tech, and music festival in Austin, Texas that your friend with the job title of creative director is probably going to. And tomorrow is Mardi Gras, the last day before the start of Lent. So New Orleans is going to be a madhouse.

Who is the person who is going to both? I want to be that person, actually, just a little South by Southwest and then a lot of Mardi Gras. Let's wrap it up there. Thanks so much for starting your morning. with us and have an awesome start to the week. For any questions, comments, or feedback, send an email to Morning Brew Daily at Morningbrew.com. And if you're enjoying the show,

share it with a friend, family member, or coworker. Toby, who should everyone listening share it with today? I want you to share the podcast with a friend you haven't seen in a while, maybe a week when they are in Vietnam, or if they're just someone you haven't seen in general, send the pod as a chance to reconnect. Let's roll the credits. Emily Milliron is our executive producer.

Raymond Lou is our producer, Olivia, Graham is our associate producer. Euchennawa Ogu is our technical director. Garrett Peck is on audio. Hair and makeup missed out on an Oscar last night. You'll get him next time. Devin Emery is our chief content officer and our shows of production of Morning Brew.

Great show day, Neil. Let's run it back tomorrow.