Morning Brew Daily - DOGE Pitches $2T Budget Cuts & Everyone is Drinking Guinness

Episode Date: December 6, 2024

Episode 469: Neal and Toby discuss Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy’s visit to Congress, otherwise known as DOGE, the Department of Government Efficiency, as they pitch their ideas to cut excess government spending. Then, Guinness is the hottest beer on the market right now and loyal fans are concerned it may cause a shortage during the holiday season for the beloved stout. Also, the famed Notre Dame Cathedral will officially reopen this weekend after the mysterious devastating fire in 2019. Meanwhile, Robinhood is the Stock of the Week, and the Hawk Tuah Girl is the Dog of the Week. Lastly, the biggest headlines to lead you into the weekend.  Download the Yahoo! Finance App (on the Play and App store) for real-time alerts on news and insights tailored to your portfolio and stock watchlists. Subscribe to Morning Brew Daily for more of the news you need to start your day. Share the show with a friend, and leave us a review on your favorite podcast app. Listen to Morning Brew Daily Here: https://link.chtbl.com/MBD Watch Morning Brew Daily Here: https://www.youtube.com/@MorningBrewDailyShow 00:00 - Mispronounced Words 03:10 - DOGE in DC  09:10 - Guiness Shortage  12:40 - Notre Dame Reopens 18:00 - Stock of the Week 21:10 - Dog of the Week 24:40 - Headlines Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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Good morning, Brewed Daily Show. I'm Neil Fryman. And I'm Toby Howell. Today, Doge comes to Washington as Elon Musk and Vivek Ramoswamy kick off their cost-cutting project. Ben Wyg Guinness is suddenly the hottest drink in America this holiday season. It's Friday, December 6th, let's ride. One thing that we always appreciate about you is that whenever Toby and I mispronounce a word, you are quick to correct us. And this kind of reinforcement learning is working.

I haven't said Navidia in over a year, just invidia, but everyone struggles to say some words, especially if they're new. And the language learning platform Babel just released its list of the most mispronounced words of 2024 in the U.S. and the UK. Toby, I know you've been practicing all week for this performance. So please impress our listeners by pronouncing the words that trip people up the most and explain what they are. Here is the top 10 first is Kamala, as in Kamala Harris. Then there's Keogan, as in Barry Keogan, as in the freaky guy from Saltburn, as in Sabrina Carpenter's now ex-boyfriend. Then there's Koi Ker-Hunche, which is a Dutch breed of dog that Shohay Otani owns.

So people are looking that up. Buttigieg, as in Pete Buttigieg, Cheyenne, the fast fashion company. Then spec, you lost 3B, a new exoplanet that was discovered this year. There's Frisier, which was the Olympics mascot, semi-glute tied, as in Ozempic, as in Nova Nordus. Zendaya and Chapel Rhone. I think I went 10 for 10 there. Well, you did practice, but you did when the spotlight

shone on you, you executed well. So that was the U.S. list. In the UK, the top word that people mispronounced was espresso, Sabrina Carpenter's song, and I guess the most common mispronunciation there was espresso. It's actually a very nice snapshot of the year

in news, news, politics, science. If you go down the list, it does show what people were talking about. So I like this. Talking about wrongly. Yeah, talking about wrongly. Let's revisit this in 2025. Now a word from our sponsor, Yahoo Finance. Neil, was it a fast week or a slow week for you this week? Slow week for sure. Coming back from a break is always tough.

Agreed, a slow week for me too. But fast week when it comes to the market once again. That is something I found. The market waits for no man. There are constantly new stories to be read and data to parse through. It's a runaway train that you can lose track of pretty quickly. Yahoo Finance can help tame the beast, though. it makes each fast week in the market feel a little slower, a little more manageable. Real-time market data, research reports, stock screeners, news updates you can trust. Yahoo Finance speeds you up so you can stay ahead of the curve.

If you want your slow weeks to feel faster and your fast weeks to feel slower, head to Yahoo!finance.com today. Ryan Reynolds here from MintMobile. I don't know if you knew this, but anyone can get the same premium wireless for $15 a month plan that I've been enjoying. It's not just for celebrities, so do like I did. have one of your assistance assistants assistants switch you to mint mobile today. I'm told it's super easy to do at mintmobile.com slash switch. Up front payment of $45 for three month plan equivalent to $15

per month required. Intro rate first three months only, then full price plan options available. Taxes and fees extra. Seeful terms at mintmobile.com. Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy traveled to Washington, D.C. yesterday to soft launch their Department of Government Efficiency, or Doge. The two entrepreneurs met with lawmakers behind closed doors. to kick off their much-hyped initiative to overhaul the federal government's bureaucracy slash regulations and trim wasteful spending. The exact mandate of Doge is still murky,

particularly because it won't be an official government agency, just an advisory body staffed by unpaid volunteers. Plus, there's plenty of skepticism that it will be able to achieve its leader's goals. Elon Musk has pledged to slash $2 trillion from the federal budget, but the math gets tricky slash impossible once you realize that the number represents about 30% of all federal spending and two-thirds of the budget funds programs like Social Security and Medicare that are effectively mandatory. So finding $2 trillion to cut seems to be some magical thinking.

Still, there is a ton of energy behind Doge in Washington since pretty much everyone can agree that the federal government could use some pruning. And I mean everyone. Some Democrats and progressives have shown an eagerness to engage with Musk and Ramoswami, including Bernie Sanders, who says, said this week that Musk is right about proposed cuts to military spending. Neil, can Doge make a dent? Well, let's take a look at one of their most hyped initiatives, according to them, which is to gut the federal workforce, and maybe that's illustrative of how this is going to work. So the federal government employs 2.3 million people. That accounts for 1.4% of the entire U.S. workforce. In 2022, taxpayers spent $271 billion on payroll for these federal employees.

How much of the overall budget does that account for? 4%. So say they were to fire half of the federal workforce, and, you know, 60% of everyone in the federal workforce works for three things, the Department of Defense, the Department of Veterans Affairs, and the Department of Homeland Security. So you would absolutely gut those particular agencies. services giving or people giving services to people like veterans. And you would reduce the deficit.

If you cut half of the federal workforce, you would reduce the federal deficit by less than 10%. So this is just some of the math that they're working against when you say you want to cut something like $2 trillion. And that's the math aspect of it. Just do a thought experiment real quick. Say we fired a bunch of DMV workers. People are still going to need their driver's license.

They still need to register their vehicles. And yet now you're going to go into. a DMV that has less workers there, they're handling two, three, four, five people. Does that actually make the government more efficient? And then the other aspect of government waste that they want to go after Doge does is fraudulent payments, which, again, is understandable. You don't want money going towards fraud. You don't want it being misappropriated.

And yet, if you think about the way you push back against fraud is usually to add in more layers of maybe bureaucracy, more paperwork, more hubes to jump through. to ensure that the money is going to places you want it to go. And again, that doesn't really achieve your goal of efficiency as well. So they almost have an impossible task in front of them. It's a catch-22 whenever you go after trying to cut places, unless you make cuts in precisely the right ways. It might lead to inefficiencies.

Yeah, there's a great anecdote about what you were talking about, where trying to cup bureaucracy leads to even more paperwork. So there was a government conference in 2010 that was held in Las Vegas. It featured a clown and a mind reader. and that caused an absolute scandal. Why is the government spending our taxpayer funds on clowns and mind readers to entertain government employees? But that led to an insane amount of paperwork and documentation and even more inefficiency. Now that every single time there's a government conference or any government employee travels everywhere,

they have to fill out an insane amount of paperwork. So that just created even more, you know, red tape essentially. That said, you did mention that, you know, I mean, a lot of Republicans are on board with this. And even some Democrats, Bernie Sanders, Ro Kana in California, they are aligned with Musk and Ramoswami on at least a few of the issues. One of the ones where I think there is common ground between Democrats and Doge is military spending, which is a major, major line item in the federal budget. Bernie Sanders said, I would love to talk with Musk about, you know, these bloated government contracts for military contractors. Rokana said the same thing. he was like, you know, Elon Musk sees this from the inside because he at SpaceX is a big government

contractor for the Pentagon budget. So maybe that is an area where that we do spend a ton of money that where they could find common ground. I do think that the main takeaway here is one, the task is gargantuan. It will be difficult. But on the other hand, lawmakers are willing to play ball. Senator Susan Collins, who actually leads the Appropriations Committee, did have a hour-long one-on-one meeting with Elon Musk. He didn't make a presentation. They were just chatting through ideas, but clearly there is some momentum here.

Whether they can pull it off, that remains to be seen. And it's not the first time there's been a government efficiency agency that, you know, trying to clean this up, Reagan did in 1982. So this has, you know, every decade they try to do something list. We'll see whether they can get anything done. For this next story, we're going to do a little role-playing exercise. If you are at a holiday happy hour and a young person walks up, to you and hands you a Guinness do you a politely declined b take a small sip or C tactically

chug it so that the line marking the barrier between the dark stout and the creamy foam on top lands between the G and the harp logo on the outside of the glass good job everyone the correct answer is C splitting the G as it's called has found its way into online culture propelling Guinness out of old Irish pubs filled with old Irish men and into the glasses and gullets of younger Americans. One Boston pub owner told the New York Times that they had to purchase 63% more Guinness this year to keep up with skyrocketing demand. Some reasons why the drink might be having a moment outside the popularity of splitting the G. Guinness is best enjoyed straight from the tap, so a return to more social drinking after the pandemic could be providing a boost. Also from Paul

Mescal on the big screen to Sally Rooney on bookshelves, Irish culture in general is just in right now. Neil, these tailwinds Guinness is experiencing means that the biggest issue it's facing ahead of the holiday season is, will there be enough of it? That's true. This week, Diageo, which is the big beverage conglomerate, that owns Guinness,

actually limited pubs in the UK from sourcing Guinness each week leading up to Christmas because they just haven't made enough to fulfill booming demand. In the year to end, in the year to June, worldwide sales of Guinness were up 15%.

Meanwhile, you know, the overall beer industry is in decline. It was sales were basically flat between July and October for the global industry, but volume of Guinness consumed from Kex was up more than a fifth. So even as the overall industry stagnates, Guinness is, you know, skyrocketing. I do think it is fascinating all the different aspects that have thrusted Guinness into a, you know, kind of being the leader really in a semi-dying category. Another one is, is that Guinness has been working very hard to shed it. reputation as a heavy beer. I mean, anyone who's seen a pint of Guinness, it looks like a meal

in a glass. It is so heavy. The foam on top themes seem so thick, but really, they've been on this marketing campaign to show that we're actually not that heavy of a beer. It's 4.2% alcohol by volume. That's about the same strength as a bud light. There's only 125 calories per a 12-ounce glass. That's the same as Modelo especially Al. So despite what looks would show, it's not as heavy as people think. And as the beer industry kind of shifts away from these heavier craft beers, people are saying, wait a second, Guinness, despite what it looks like, is a much lighter beverage. Okay, what the people actually want to know is, have you split the G? How hard is it to walk us through this process? Well, there's a little bit of controversy, actually,

as to what the target is when you're splitting the G. I, the way I've done it is between the bottom of the G and the harp logo, but some people try to split the actual middle of the G itself. So Depending on which pub you're in, depending on if you're in Ireland or America, there is a little bit of controversy. But there is this rise in so-called ginn influencers. That's a real turn that's been social flying around on social media where this tradition, whatever you want to call it, started way back like 2015 era, 2017 era in Ireland, in the UK. And it has slowly made its way across the pond. You had never heard of it before this show. I don't know what that says.

We got to take you to a pub, Neal. Yeah, Hartleys. And another part of the Guinness boom is that there is some sort of craftsmanship involved in, you know, pouring it from the keg. There's a right way to do it that takes minutes to do. And there's an Instagram account that ranks all of the bars based on how they pour Guinness. And the best one is Hartleys in Brooklyn. So if you're looking for the best pint of Guinness, that is your best bet. We should go there this weekend. On April 15, 2019, the world watched in Horace, Paris's Notre Dame Cathedral was engulfed in flames. The 12th century Gothic masterpiece, a French national monument, suffered major damage to its upper walls and vaults, while its roof and iconic spire were destroyed. But out of the ashes, a phoenix rises. This weekend, Notre Dame is reopening to the public once more. And what experts are calling one of the history's most remarkable restorations, the church has been rebuilt in a colossal effort involving more than 1,000 artisans and 250 companies from all over the world.

Even more remarkable, the restoration took just over five years since the fire and came in under budget. The restoration project had raised over $900 million, but spent an estimated $737 million on the rebuild. Toby, even as the church was still burning that April, French president Emmanuel Macron vowed to reopen it in five years. It took a Herculane effort, but they pretty much did it. They pretty much did it because there was so much support from really French's elite class to get the, thing back up because it is just a symbol of national pride. In the days and even the hours after the fire, you saw these almost like one-upmanship coming in from a lot of these billionaires where the richest families in France, like I'm talking about the caring family. They said that

they would, from luxury, good fame, would give $113 million. Then LVMH's CEO, Bernard Arnaud, pledged $226 million. The L'Oreal Foundation gave $226 million. So it really became this big game of like we want to get this back on board, but it was also almost like this public display of like who can support it the most. And then yeah, McCrone played a big role as well. He said five years we're going to open it. He put this very hard deadline with the sheer amount of the work they had to do. But they came in under. It's wild that it came in under budget when you take consider just how much went into restoring this building. Yeah, I mean, let's talk about some of those restoration processes because this thing was built,

originally in the 1100s. And what they did to repair some of this was just go back to the way those craftmen did it back then 800 years ago because they were like, man, this is really good. This stood this withstood the test of time for the most part. So they did things like take the organ down to the south, the south of France and just repair it with the same materials that it was originally built with like sheepskin and animal glue. One of the most impressive rebuilds of this entire thing was the

roof, which is this incredible lattice work of wood. They went into the surrounding countryside just like they did when they've been building the original Notre Dame and took down 2,000 oak trees, brought them back and put, made the roof again. So just incredible craftsmanship work. I would love to

I can't wait for this documentary to come out to see how they built this. But, you know, it also reminds me of the fact that cathedral, something that's like 900 years old is constantly getting destroyed, rebuilt, destroyed, rebuilt again. So, you know, a cathedral is not necessarily just a finished piece from when it's originally started. It's like a work of constant motion. And I can't help but contrast Notre Dame reopening with the vote of no confidence that's the French government just went through where Parliament is still trying

to figure out how to run the country. And then Macron is definitely going to use this reopening as a chance to kind of bolster his political standing because he's on unstable footing right now. So that is another undertone to this great victory for France, but still they have some things going on behind the scenes that they have to figure out. Up next, it's Stock of the Week, Dog of the Week time. Welcome to Stock of the Week, Dog of the Week, where we pick one stock from the week's news

that knows there are still 25 days left in the year and is making use of each and every one of them. And one stock, who is already looking ahead to 2025 whilst forgetting the gift that is the present. Neil, I won the pre-show grammar competition. You did good, but I did well. So I'm up first, and my stock of the week is Robin Hood. The brokerage firm has quietly been staging a nice comeback over the past week's months and year

to climb back over its IPO price. It's now up 217% year-to-date. It's worth about $35 billion and just hosted its first Investor Day event this past Wednesday. CEO Vlad Teneff laid out a future where Robin Hood has its hands in everything from stock in crypto trading to maybe sports betting. One interesting tidbit from the investor day was that Robin Hood sees desktops as a pillar of growth over the next few years

as the Wall Street Journal put it. According to the company, about 50% of overall retail trading takes place away from mobile devices but only makes up about 10% of Robin Hood's volume. It's an interesting strategy. Robin Hood first caught on for offering zero fee trading, attracting a more casual crowd of investors

to its app. But now, Neil, it's looking to go deeper with more serious, more sophisticated traders. Yeah, it doesn't want the people, like you or me that, you know, just buy random stocks on our phone. I want people who have the three monitors set up are very serious traders. They also bought a company called Trade PMR, which caters to a registered investment advisors for $300 million. That's a planned acquisition. So that and so those registered investment advisors, you know, trade stocks and own and have custody of clients' money.

So they bring a huge portfolio of business with them. So all of these initiatives right here speak to Robin and going after a more, you know, a more intentional investor rather than the amateur one that, you know, maybe it propelled them to fame a few years ago. Yeah, just look at the inroads they've made with people who do have more sophisticated financial needs. According to their investor day, 45% of recent users earn six figures or more. People who are at least 44 years old now make up a quarter of recent users. And about 60% of recent users are married or living with a partner. So it's not those kids in the basement. It's not the people who maybe propelled the meme stock mania of COVID of 2020.

It is just normal people with normal and increasingly more sophisticated financial needs. So you can see kind of that Robin Hood saying, we're in the next phase of reiteration. We want to go bigger here. What do you make of their push potentially into sports betting? I mean, it's not sports betting as like you traditionally think about. It is they're trying to create these like these markets. Essentially prediction markets. prediction markets, which they rolled out ahead of the presidential election.

So that was, I think, a test run for them. So they're thinking, like, hey, this is clearly something where people are interested in. Why would we not skate where the puck is going? So I do think that there's nothing planned on the books right now, but they're definitely looking down that path. Yeah, I think bottom line for Robin Hood is it's in growth mode once again. My dog of the week is the Hawk to a meme coin. This launched Wednesday night to quite a bit of hype, but plummeted in value on Thursday, causing many people to lose money on that thing.

For everyone asking, Neil, are you serious right now? Yes, I am, and here's what happened. Haley Welch, the girl who went viral for an interview in the summer and has stayed in the internet limelight, launched a meme coin to, in her words, unite her community. Right after launch, the coin shot up to a market cap of $490 million before plunging more than 91% in the span of a few hours yesterday, down to a value of less than $30 million.

Welch and her team were immediately accused of execution a rug pull, a scam in which insiders hype up a crypto before selling it at a profit, disappearing and leaving regular investors holding the bag with nothing. Welch defended herself yesterday, denying any insider sales or activity. Either way, the reason we're even sharing this story is that it showcases the boom in meme coins since the election last month. Bitcoin may have just hit 100K, but the smaller meme coins have been snagging even more momentum and attention to the point where the Haktua girl is now at the center of a

crypto controversy. Toby, is this the top? I don't know. I mean, Haley Welsh is absolutely speed running the internet at this point. She got the viral video. She launched the podcast. Of course, the next thing to do is launch a meme coin, but it does speak to kind of the current iteration of the crypto market that we're in right now. I mean, you go back, we had the NFT craze. Now we're in the meme coin craze. Dogecoin, which is the original meme coin, if that's why you want to call it, named after the Shiba Eno meme that a lot of people know. It's outperformed Bitcoin over. It's outperformed Bitcoin over the last month. I mean, we were just talking about the Department of Government efficiency is literally called a dose. So clearly, memes are driving culture right now. And just to be

clear for everyone listening, the point of these coins is that they don't have a point. There is no business model. There is no cash flow. There's no underlying asset that you're buying. You are truly just buying into the fact that there's a shared understanding of an inside joke on the internet. So whether you think that has real value or not, clearly it does, based off of the market evaluations of these meme coins. But these highly volatile tokens, they're not something that your finance 101 professor ever talked about, but they're clearly hot right now. And let's run through some of these meme coins. And maybe Toby, you can explain to us, millennials, what these are. But there's one that's called Moodang, which is that pygmy hippo that was born in Thailand

and has become a meme. That's probably the easiest one for people to wrap their heads around. Moodang is just a meme. Like you saw her go viral on social media. Now there's a coin that is tied to her value. It is worth a lot of money, but that is probably the easiest one to kind of wrap your head around. And then there's peanut, which is named after the orphan squirrel who was euthanized by New York authorities and became a right-wing talking point ahead of the election. And then another one is called Chill Guy, which is the meme of just the Arthur-looking dog. Yeah, chill guy, hands in pockets, going viral on TikTok, going viral on X.

It has reached a market cap of $466 million. dollars. Peanut has hit $1.2 billion. There is a lot of money pouring into these things. Unfortunately, in the end, in the long enough timeline, they all go to zero. Not necessarily. Well, I guess Dogecoin is worth $60 billion. It's worth more than Target right now. So it depends on the enduring character of the mean.

Maybe these more flashy. I would say the vast majority go to zero, but the ones that endure and become part of the culture, like Dogecoin, I do seem to have some legs. I think that is. But investor beware, absolutely. beware. Now let's sprint to the finish of the week with some headlines you should know. Up first, the net appears to be closing around the shooter who gunned down United Healthcare CEO Brian Thompson in New York City earlier this week. Police released images of a suspected

gunman taken from a surveillance camera at an Upper West Side hostel on 103rd Street. Authorities obtained a search warrant for the building and are working to identify him. Other loose ends investigators have tracked down. They believe the suspect may have caught a ride from Atlanta to New York last month on a bus. They also found a water bottle and a protein bar wrapper in a nearby trash can that authorities say the gunman purchased from Starbucks just before the shooting. Despite all the leads though, Neil, he still remains at large. Yeah, it really stood out to me was the reaction on social media. Tens of thousands of people expressed support for the killing and even praise the killing. I know it maybe was a minority, but it certainly was on many of our feeds. I mean, I think

one good example of this is on the official Facebook post about his death from United Health Group, the parent company of the company that he was the CEO of most, the vast majority of people reacted with the laughter emoji. There were 40,000 reactions on that particular post. 35,000 use the ha ha emoji and just 2200 use the sad emoji. So, I mean, take that what you want. But there's a lot of hatred towards the health insurance industry. Evocative and soft, warming and rich. to a desire for comfort. That is not a script

for a sensual phone line operator. Those are just some of the ways that Pantone is describing its color of the year for 2025. The color curator named Moka Moose, a mellow brown infused with a sensorial and comforting warmth,

as the color it thinks will define the next 12 months. Neil, this past year's color was a warm and fruity peach fuzz. So a shift to a newgitty brown that evokes everything from luxury knitwear to swamp water it's quite the 180.

It's the first time in the 25-year history of Pantone's color of the year that they've chosen a shade of brown. And I guess my question is, how much can Pantone put its imprint on culture going forward? Will something, will, like, color organically appear and drive, you know, general aesthetics? Or how much influence does Pantone actually have because it feels like they want to have influence? And one way they actually do is because when they announce the color of the year, they launch a thousand different collaborations. with brands. So they do start selling stuff in this particular color where they wouldn't before.

But it is kind of interesting, especially if we're coming after a summer and a year, where, you know, Brat Green really drove a lot of online culture. How much of, you know, what color stands out is organic and how much is a function of what the, you know, the color elite

say? It is a good question. It's both predictive because they are predicting the color of the year and prescriptive because they are almost speaking it into existence. But I don't know. If you go back through the history, I think we're coming off of peach fuzz and Viva Magenta to have a brown. Maybe it is just time to settle down a little bit

and have a little bit more of a mellow color of the year. Calling all aspiring Dolly Parton's, your role of a lifetime has arrived. The Dolly Parton musical is coming to Broadway in 2026, and yesterday the Queen of Country Music herself put out a casting call to play her at different stages of her life. Anyone, whether you're a musical theater pro or a mainstay on the karaoke circuit, is encouraged to try out by filling out an application and posting a one-minute video of themselves

singing their favorite dolly song on social media. Toby, this could be the most applied to job in history. Yeah, I don't think I have a shot for this one, Neil. Obviously, the first thing your mind goes through, though, is who would be a good dolly? Some names that come to mind, at least vocally speaking, Miley Cyrus, her version of Jolene might be even better than dolly's. Sabrina Carpenter could be good as well, but also this is the way that they're going about this opens up the world to a lot of undiscovered talent. So I do think they're also looking for performers of all ages of Dolly's life. So I think we're going to see some like really cool videos emerge some, I don't know, maybe your grandmother all the way down to like your young

daughter might be nailing their Dolly impression. So I don't know. I wish I had a chance at this, but I don't think I got the pipes for it, Neil. That is a wrap on our shows for the week. Thanks so much for starting your morning with us. Have a wonderful Friday and an even better weekend. For any questions, comments, or feedback, send an email to Morningbrewdaily at Morningbrew.com. And if you learn something today, share that fact and the podcast with a friend or coworker who would find it interesting. Y'all are key to helping us grow this thing to be bigger than Rogan. For even more specific sharing idea, Toby's got you covered. I mean, on the Dolly Parton kick, I want you to share the podcast with someone you think has a shot at playing Dolly, young, old, blonde, not blonde.

if you think they have what it takes, send them this episode. Let's roll the credits. Emily Milliron is our executive producer. Raymond Lute is our producer. Olivia Graham is our associate producer. Lonnie Fiscus is our technical director. Billy Minino is on audio. Hair and makeup is going to start dressing us in mocha moose, and that's okay. Devin Emery is our chief content officer and our show is a production of Morning Brew. Great. Show today, Neil. I wish you all well.

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