Morning Brew Daily - Federal Staffers Must Justify Jobs or Be Fired? & Ozempic Shortage is Over

Episode Date: February 24, 2025

Episode 525: Toby and Ann discuss Elon Musk’s email to all federal employees asking them to report their accomplishments otherwise face resignation and why some agencies are choosing to ignore the email. Then, Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway reports another record strong quarter and publishes his famed annual letter that takes aim at the White House. Also, Ozempic and Wegovy are back on the shelves as the FDA reports they are no longer in a shortage in the US. Meanwhile, Conservative CDU/CSU Party leader Friedrich Merz and New York Yankee facial hair are the weekend’s winners. Finally, a look toward the Week Ahead!  LinkedIn will even give you a $100 credit on your next campaign so you can try it yourself. Go to LinkedIn.com/MBD Terms and conditions apply. Only on LinkedIn ads. Subscribe to Morning Brew Daily for more of the news you need to start your day. Share the show with a friend, and leave us a review on your favorite podcast app. Check out https://linkedin.com/MBD for more! Listen to Morning Brew Daily Here: https://link.chtbl.com/MBD Watch Morning Brew Daily Here: https://www.youtube.com/@MorningBrewDailyShow Hear more from Ann on After Earnings: https://open.spotify.com/show/5I5q3LIg1ueDWoTM8AZsHQ?si=38da6cb59c874a5e Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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pwc.com slash U.S. slash brew AI. That's pwc.com slash us slash brew AI. Good morning brew daily show. I'm Toby Howell. And I'm Ann Barry. Today, federal employees are scrambling after an email

over the weekend, asked them to show their work. And the Oracle of Omaha, Warren Buffett, with Berkshire Hathaway's annual newsletter out letting us answer the question, what would Warren do? It's Monday, February 24th. Let's ride. Happy Monday,

everyone. Anne, welcome to the show. Neil is still enjoying his much-deserved break. So Anne will be helping steer the ship for the upcoming week. And since we're going to be hanging out for the next few days, do you mind giving our listeners a quick bio? Who is Anne Barry? And how did you end up in this chair across from me? Well, I'm breaking down the market news from Morning Brew at at a franchise called Brew Markets. You'll find us on Instagram, on X, on YouTube right now. And also we have a fabulous daily newsletter coming out at the end of day. Also hosting after earnings, are conversations with CEOs and CFOs at your favorite public companies. So keeping really busy.

Anne hosts a lot of shows. She's very talented. I highly recommend checking out both of the franchises that you're a part of. But thank you so much. You're a natural fill-in from Neil. You look great over there. So I'm excited for our week ahead. Now a word from our sponsor, LinkedIn ads.

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Exclusion supplies to homebopo.com slash price match for details. If you thought you had a case of the Sunday Scaries this weekend, federal workers almost certainly had it worse. 2.3 million government employees checking their email today will be staring down a message from the U.S. Office of Personnel Management, asking them to share five bullet points detailing what they accomplished in the last week. The effort was spearheaded by Elon Musk and came with a warning on X that any employee who fails to respond would be treated as having resigned, only adding to the uncertainty.

For Elon and Doge, the email is meant to spot, quote, outright fraud from people on the government payroll who aren't actually working. But multiple agencies and unions have put back, instructing their workers to hold off on hitting that reply button. New FBI director Cash Patel told employees not to answer, saying the Bureau would use its own procedures to review employee performance. NOAA and NSA employees were told the same. The State Department is also on the no-reply train. The email told employees to respond by 11.59 p.m. Eastern Time tonight.

So as that deadline draws near, it set up a high-stake standoff, putting Musk and Trump's attempts to aggressively downsize the federal government against agency heads who aren't sure how to proceed. And a lot of weight contained in one tiny email. So much going on. This is straight out of the Elon Playbook. He did this over at X. It was then called Twitter. He dropped shipped in. So this is now happening. He's done this at Tesla. He's done that at the rest of his companies. I don't think he knows any different. And it's really difficult because it's been a successful strategy elsewhere. The issue people have had is that the federal government, is not necessarily a tech company.

You can't treat it in the same way. And also, just logistically, some federal workers are on leave right now, whether it's sick leave, parental leave, so they can't access their emails. I mean, some of them work in far-flung places that don't even have email access. So do they get automatically fired just because they can't actually load their email? Others like the CFPB, the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, their workforce has recently been placed on leave and have been instructed not to work. So do they have any accomplishments to report?

No. So there's just been all these edge cases where everyone's a little confused as to how you're supposed to approach this. If one, you can't look at your email or two, you're already on leave right now. So definitely some logistical issues, not to mention maybe some of the legal issues along with this email as well. The big body of folks I'm waiting to hear from, Toby, I'd love to know what you think about. This is actually the unions, right? If you think about this, this is a completely different shift in anything that the federal government has. ever seen before. And the unions who are, in theory, supposed to be representing, you know,

this body of workers. It'll be very interesting to see what they have to say, not just in terms the legal advice, not just in terms of what's going on, not in terms of what the, not just in terms of what the agencies are saying. But what the unions actually advise people to do, I think it's going to be really critical here. According to most federal employment lawyers, Elon Musk can't force federal employees to resign. And tempting to do so would amount to, you know, an involuntary termination. So workers who are affected by an involuntary termination could file a claim, a legal claim challenging that action. So that looks to be a pathway that they could obviously take. But then also, let's just take the viewpoint of what, you know, Elon and Doge and Trump are

trying to accomplish with this, is that from their viewpoint, this is a very easy test you should be able to pass. If you are actually working, you should be able to, in five minutes, you know, write down five bullet points of what you've been working on. He said on X that there was a low bar to meet it. It should take less than five minutes too, right? And that was the same energy that he's brought to a lot of his companies that he brought to Twitter. So, yes, you can see his supporters saying, yeah, this should be something that every private sector employee has probably faced in their tenure. Why shouldn't public sector employees be faced and held to the same standards? Let's talk about Berkshire Hathaway. So for our next story, Warren Buffett shared his annual letter

to Berkshire Hathaway investors on Saturday and shared that the holding company's earnings saw an incredible 71% surge in Q4 and that their cash stock pile grew to a record-breaking $334 billion. The reason? Well, it was the insurance part of their portfolio, mostly GEICO, that saw a large rebound. Insurance underwriting had a 302% jump from the year earlier to $3.4 billion. Berkshire also did warn that the Southern California wildfires will lead to an estimated pre-tax loss of about $1.3 billion. That's hitting 2025 numbers, though, not next year. Berkshire Hathaway Toby is known to hold on to large amounts of cash for flexibility and future investments. But that current number of $334 billion is raising some eyebrows.

In his letter, Warren Buffett said, despite what some commentators currently view as an extraordinary cash position at Berkshire, the great majority of your money remains in equities. Buffett went on to say, shareholders can rest assured that we will forever deploy a substantial majority of their money in equities. Buffett also touted Berkshire's record $26.8 billion tax payment and told the government to, quote, spend it wisely. The surgeon earnings reflects the strength of Berkshire's core business is rebounding, while the cash part certainly gives them that flexibility for a big move. Toby, there was a lot in that Oracle of Omaha's annual letter. I've got it printed out in front of me, actually, because there was so much to go through. Yeah, I mean, everybody loves reading, you know, the annual shareholder letter from Warren Buffett.

It is a tradition in finance circles, unlike any other. The cash pile is always something that grabs headlines because it just continues to grow bigger. Remember, his cash in treasury bills is sitting at $330 billion-plus dollars right now. But I do like that. He was like, chill out with all this cash pile talk. I know you guys love writing headlines about this. But, again, the vast majority of our company is tied up in equities. He still, you know, very much believes in equities as, you know, the path to growing.

Berkshire Hathaway. And the fact remains that the stock market is trading at record, at near record highs. Valuations are elevated compared to historical averages. So it's very hard to find a deal for a value investor like Warren Buffett. So everyone tends to, you know, getting a tizzy about this cash bottle, but Warren's like, hey, just chill out. We're looking for deals. You know how we operate here. We look for good deals. We're not just going to splash out this cash on something willy-nilly. Write your headlines, but you know what? We're still fine with, you know, the cash position that we're sitting in right now. And he actually said, look, we've got less cash than we've

got public equities. And don't forget, the other thing about Berkshire Hathaway is they own 100% of businesses, too. Those are basically privately held businesses. You can't go buy in the stock market. Some couple of things that really struck me here, Toby, did you see that line in the, in the shareholder letter saying 53% of our investments, our companies had earnings down? And actually, I went back and looked at exactly how they broke it out. But for their insurance investments and, frankly, their energy, they would have been down. It is remarkable. It speaks to the fact that, you know, they have a piece of 189 businesses. So that diversification, I mean, it kind of is emblematic of the U.S. economy at this point.

It's like a proxy for the U.S. economy. That diversification allows them to have the majority of their business or the over half their businesses actually report negative or earnings that fell and still on the year report a pretty solid year overall. We do need to talk about this tax bill too. In 2024, Berkshire paid 26. $2.8 billion. That's the most of any U.S. company in history. It actually amounts to 5% of the total American corporate income taxes paid in 2024. Warren Buffett said the company now has paid in aggregate more than $101 billion of income tax directly to the U.S. Treasury. And he's not mad about it. That was the kind of sentiment you got reflected in this letter is that he's like, spend it wisely, you know, spend it on maybe the less fortunate, but I'm not mad about paying this tax bill, which kind of goes against what a lot of other corporations would

probably tell if they had a $26 billion tax bill. So he was kind of trying to position themselves as saying, like, hey, not all of these mega, one trillion dollar corporations hate taxes. We actually like paying them as long as, you know, Uncle Sam uses the money appropriately. The other warning he gave to Uncle Sam is we need a stable currency. He's specifically called out, just make sure that there is a sort of steady, eddy temperament in government, and we need a stable currency to be able to succeed. and I thought that was so interesting, Toby, in the context of one of the biggest takeaways for me from this letter.

Warren Buffett went out of his way to say, we are investing in Japan. Yes. He loves Japanese trading houses. He thinks they're undervalue compared to kind of Western counterparts. He loves them because they kind of check all the boxes that Berkshire Hathaway wants to check. They're cash generating businesses. They have this very strong global presence. They have steady dividends.

They're very conservatively managed. And so that is just something that Berkshire loves. that's music to their ears. And they have been down a little bit in recent months, these Japanese training houses, which just backing up is sent a minute. These are these massive conglomerates that handle everything from global trade,

resource procurement, logistics, investments across multiple industries. They're very diversified. And he says that these Japanese positions are ones that they'll hold for decades. So, again, all of the positions that Berkshire usually takes are held over a long time frame. so these Japanese training house positions are no different.

After two years of insane demand for the active ingredient in injectable weight loss drugs, semi-glutide, the FDA has declared the shortage over. OZempeg Wagovi and other drugs in the blockbuster category have been in short supply around the world as their popularity has skyrocketed. When certain medicines face shortages, the FDA can make it possible for other companies to make their own off-brand copycat versions of brand name drugs. That proved to be a boon for digital health companies like Hems and Herds, who have been prescribing compounded semi-glutide in the midst of the shortage.

Patients flocked to the non-FDA-approved medications because of the cost difference. Hems and Hers sells their medicine for a few hundred dollars compared to brand drugs from Novo Nordus, which clock in at around $1,000 per month without insurance. But now that gravy train looks to be ending. The FDA said compounding drug makers have 60 to 90 days to close up shop, which sent Hymns and hers stock plunging 26% just before the weekend. A big shakeup in the GLP1 drug industry here, Anne. Huge shakeup.

And I've got to tell you, everyone I speak to at the moment, Toby, seems to be using a GLP1, from every age group, from every demographic. And I think I've almost not really realized the ubiquity of this. So the fact that the affordable version, the accessible version, is actually going to go away, I think it's got enormous repercussions, not just for the people using it, but also let's take a little bit of a look at what's been going on with other businesses impacted, like the snack industry. You know, everyone was talking about how the snack industry is going to be changed by JLP once.

I don't know how that's going to change. Yeah, no, it has been an absolute phenomenon. We've talked about it a lot on this show over the year, but I also just want to dig into this practice of compounding drugs. So typically compounding drugs is a very normalized and very commonplace practice to, you know, make these custom versions of brand names drugs. usually they're personalized for patients, which means if someone is allergic to a specific ingredient in a drug, a pharmacist can tweak the formula a little bit without getting hit with IP claims from the drug maker. But compounding is also allowed when you are facing shortages like has been happening with semi-glutide, that key ingredient. And so these digital pharmacies like hymns and herj jump in and say, like, hey, guys, like we can make the same drug for a much cheaper price, which has sent their share price skyrocketed. Ironically, on our Friday show, we named Hems and Hards our stock of the week because of its, you know, great performance over the last week.

Literally after this episode published, this news came out and Hems and Hurt's stock absolutely tanked. So sorry for, you know, the Morning Brew Daily curse right there. But I do think it just shows how important it is to have access to this fast-growing market. Like you said, that has just taken over, you know, so many of your friends and so many people, you know, are on this class of drugs right now. I think it's a bit of a cautionary tale, too. By the way, Hymns and hers are out. I think their earnings are out today. So we're really going to find out what their plan B is.

And sort of on that point, the big learning for me is there are actually a lot of companies and industry subsectors that have hitched their wagon to GLP ones. And the question I ask is, have they taken the lesson from Berkshire Hathaway and diversified? What else they got going on? So I just think this one is really going to shake up this sector. Up next, it's our winners of the weekend. We're the Hartford, with decades of experience. experience ensuring millions of unique small businesses.

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Welcome to Winners of the Weekend, the segment where Toby and I share two stories highlighting people or companies that had almost as good of a weekend as Neil hopefully is while on vacation. But before we do that, there's a winner of the day. And that is Toby. Hey, Toby. It's your birthday. Happy, happy birthday. I knew something like this was coming. The control room put you up to this, but thank you.

And, you know, 28 years young, it feels like right now. But thank you for the birthday wishes. What are you going to do to celebrate? Oh, you know, probably play a little golf, go out to dinner with my girlfriend, the usual. Keep it low key. All right, we're going to bring in cake for you every week. It's going to be the week of Toby's birthday. For our first winner, though, let's talk now about the winner of Germany's election.

That's Friedrich Merz, the center-right conservative. candidate, his alliance won that was expected, and they did clock in with about 29% of the vote. In second place was the far right alternative for Germany with about 20%. Now, this election is going to have a large impact potentially on Germany's economy, which has been struggling for the last few years. Soaring energy prices have impacted manufacturing since Russia invaded the Ukraine back in 2022. And that coupled with the rising cost of living, increasing migration and green energy regulations have caused public and businesses to pause leading to the call for reforms in the

policies that Friedrich Mertz and his party have run on. Now, one of the first items the new government will address is the country's debt break, which is a rule enacted in 2009. That actually limits government borrowing by controlling the budget deficit to cap it at 0.35% of the country's gross GDP, massively below other places like the US, for example. Now, the winner Friedrich Mertz prefers to retain the debt break and wants to instead reduce. social benefits and downsize government employment, also supporting tax cuts and social spending. So, Toby, Germany's economy is certainly in a precarious situation right now. As reading over the weekend, it's technically been in recession for the last two years.

So we're going to have to see how these new policies will impact their standing as a country and on the global stage. But when you saw this news here, what was your first reaction? I mean, the big winners here were the political fringes in Germany. I mean, the far-right AFD party doubled its vote share from the last election. in 2021, received about 20% of the vote. But also, you know, Merge is the big winner as well. Let's talk about who he is. He's actually a corporate lawyer that is a multi-millionaire, far richer than most of the other, you know, chancellors that Germans are used to.

He's held pretty big positions at numerous corporate, on numerous corporate boards. Most notably, he is actually the chairman of their, or has been the chairman of the German arm of Black Rock, you know, the big U.S. investment firm. So he was seen as the more economically literate candidate, which is what Germany wants right now. They have been teetering on the edge of a third recession in as many years. Germans are extremely pessimistic about the economy right now. In a recent survey, only a quarter of people judged the economic situation to be good. So the vibes are incredibly dower and bad in Germany right now.

And MERS has said the business model of this country is gone. You know, the manufacturing powerhouse that it used to be is being threatened by China, being threatened by these low-cost, you know, auto-makers too. So there is a lot on his plate, and he wants to attack it by, you know, reduction of taxes, the reduction of bureaucracy and, you know, cutting down on the welfare spending as well. It's a very similar policy to what we're hearing in other places. And when I was looking at these results coming, one thing that really struck me is, I wonder if there is another winner here.

And is that other winner, Elon Musk? Do you remember this election he was going all in on AFD, which, which, which, came in at number two. Is this just another example of where the omnipresent Elon can really move mountains? Yeah, I mean, if you look through his Twitter feed, he is, or X feed, he has absolutely been pushing the AFD party as well. So absolutely, you could consider this a winner. Although Mercer's government has said that they don't see themselves working with the AFD going forward. They are going to try to build a coalition without the AFD party there. So still some questions to hammer out. They're still trying to, you know, form a government here that can attack some of these

big economic issues that Germany has been facing. My winner of the weekend is facial hair, not because I suddenly gained the ability to actually grow a beard in my 28th year, but because the New York Yankees are finally reversing a nearly 50-year-old policy allowing and allowing its players to grow some facial furniture. Now the Yankees have long had the most famous grooming reel in professional sports. The team requires players to be clean-shaven and only allows mustaches. beards, no long hair past the collar. The tradition dates back to 1973 when its owner George Steinbender implemented the rule

as part of his vision for a disciplined corporate-style team identity. But George's son, Hal, who now runs the team, made the shocking announcement to end the tradition, calling it outdated and one that has serious consequences for the organization. What are some of those serious consequences? Beyond nicking your Adams apple while shaving, the dogmatic rule could potentially hurt the clubs chances of retaining or signing players. Some players really like their beards and, and things like that can factor into the calculus that goes along with deciding where to play. I feel like this is a reaction to the NFL where everyone seems to have a bit right now.

It's just in right now. Yeah, like, beards are trendy right now. I mean, actually George Steinbrenner said, or Hal Steinbrenner said, look at J.D. Vance right now. Like, he's the vice president in the United States. He has a beard. So you are absolutely right. Like, beers are the in fashion right now. I know, and Taylor Swift, right? Taylor Swift's boy, but it's all about the big. I mean, I thought you could say Taylor Swift has a reader. It was like, ah, I wasn't going to say that.

That is news to me. This announcement, you could read two ways. Like, one, probably it was an outdated rule that did deserve to, you know, be updated because it is a little draconian and, like, you shouldn't be able to control what people are, you know, growing on their faces. But the other side of the rule is that it did have, you know, real impact on the team's fortunes and the team's ability to sign free agents because, you know, what the saying is, like, look good, feel good, play good.

If some players think that they look their best with a beard, that means they're feeling the best and that means if you're feeling good and you're playing better, that could lead to, you know, more success and millions of dollars of revenue. So depending on how serious you want to take the rule, like potentially this does shift the calculus and get them over, potentially get the Yankees over the hump. Or you can just say, it was a dumb rule to begin with. Why are we even talking about it in the first place? It's all about the mojo, whatever gets people there.

Exactly. On and off the field. It's all about the mojo. Now let's see what the week ahead has to offer other than hopefully some warmer weather here in New York. After a weekend where investors took a step back to lick their wounds, following the market's worst day of 2025 on Friday, we have Nvidia's Q4 earnings on deck this Wednesday. The world's second most valuable company lost $600 billion in value after Deepseek's inexpensive AI model debuted last month.

But CEO Jensen Huang. sounds unfazed by it. The chipmaker is expected to show a 72% rise and revenue year over year and offer guidance for the supply and demand of its ships that could swing the market in either direction. This is going to be a big one. Have you got your Nvidia watch party attendance lined up?

That's what I was thinking. I feel like we missed peak Nvidia earnings. It was like a few months ago the watch parties were in, but now we're not seeing like triple digit growth anymore. Still, I do think that whatever guidance it gives about how it sees, you know, demand for ships going forward. That does influence the market. We saw when DeepSeek went out, it led to a huge market wipeout.

So I think that we still, it still has the power to, you know, shake the market, even if we're not, you know, lining up at bars to do a watch party these days. Well, before Deep Seek, do you remember everyone was talking about Nvidia sort of going all in on quantum computing? I'm really curious to see this go around. Do they double down on that narrative and say, look, don't worry about what's going on with the regular chips? Let's see what's going on quantum because everyone bought that.

So we'll see how that changes. The Fed's favored measure of inflation, the PCE price index, is out on Friday. Consumers are currently walking on eggshells when it comes to inflation. Americans' expectations for inflations over the next five years is the highest it's been since 1995 due to the looming threat of tariffs against key trade partners. That lack of confidence coupled with a hot inflation report may present a dangerous concoction for investors and consumers. alike. I thought the treading on eggshells thing was a reference to avian flu in the egg shortage. Was that intentional? That was intentional. Everything we do here is in attention. I caught it. Are you impressed? Are you impressed? I'm impressed and I hope the listeners caught it as well.

Finally, what feels like the longest and most problematic Academy Award season will come to a conclusion on Sunday night. ABC is giving everyone an early start time of 7 p.m. Eastern for a second year in a row so no one has to lose sleep over Conclave, absolutely sweeping the field. Conan O'Brien is charged with manning the ship for three hours in his role as a first-time host for Hollywood's biggest night and any early Oscars predictions. Oh, you know, I think it's an open field. I don't. But I think Conan's going to do great. Jimmy Kimmel's not hosting this year, which I was sad to see. He's done a good job usually in the He's done a good job. I'm excited for Conan as well. We were talking about Conclave beforehand.

That I think was both of our favorite best fiction. That's the only one I saw. So I think that is by default my favorite. But did you see any of the other ones or just Conclave? I didn't see any the other nominees, but it's one of these things where I'm really curious to how the streamers do, right? They have absolutely swept the board. The other one I'm watching is A24, which seems to have won like every award for every movie it's done over the last couple of years. So sort of looking at those too. There you have it. That is all the time we have for today. And thanks again for jumping on and excited for a great week of shows ahead. Let's roll these credits. Emily Milliron is our executive producer. Raymond Liu is our producer. Olivia Graham is our

associate producer. Yuchanan Oogu is our technical director. Scoops Dardaris is on audio. Hair and makeup forgot the password to their work email, so it's been so long since they've logged in. Devin Emery is our chief content officer and our show is a production of Morning Brew. Great show today, Toby, and we'll see each other tomorrow. All pay off your home, travel for life, drive a Ferrari. In celebration of the world premiere of the Monopoly Big Board Buckslot Machine by Aristocrat Gaming, Yamava Resort and Casino at San Manuel is giving one person a $1.6 million. dream package, the biggest prize in Yamava's history. Club Serrano members can earn daily instant prizes and secure a spot in the finale

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