Morning Brew Daily - Home Sales Have Never Been Slower & No One Wants to be an Accountant

Episode Date: October 17, 2023

Episode 171: Neal and Toby discuss why home sales haven't been this low in a long time. Plus, LinkedIn is cutting more jobs in the latest wave of tech layoffs and why no one wants to be an accountant these days! Toby wants you to get ready with him and how robots might be making your next sweetgreen bowl. And finally which sports are coming to the Olympics. Listen to Our Future Podcast Here: https://link.chtbl.com/ourfuturepodcast Listen to Morning Brew Daily Here: https://link.chtbl.com/MBD Watch Morning Brew Daily Here: https://www.youtube.com/@MorningBrewDailyShow Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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Good morning, Brew Daily show. I'm Neil Fryman. I'm Toby Howell. On today's pod, the housing situation in the U.S. has not been this bleak since coming out of the 2008 global financial crisis. Then LinkedIn conducted another round of layoffs, which is always a little awkward if you then have to post about it on LinkedIn. It's Tuesday, October 17. Let's ride. Okay, I just want to apologize for our audio quality yesterday. I know it wasn't the best, and we sounded a bit like the voice on the subway announcing the next stop. It was a tech issue that has been resolved.

So hopefully my exceptionally resonant voice is coming across crystal clear right now. Toby, apparently it was at its worst when you were talking about Taylor Swift. Listen, it happens. I get excited, okay? But I also just want to give a shout out to our listeners. You guys are low-key audio experts. People were talking about bitrate and overdriven audio and turning down the gain. I certainly learned a lot yesterday from you guys.

So shout out to you all for being on top of your game and ensuring that we are always on top of ours. Before we jump into the show, today's episode is brought to you by Yahoo Finance. Neil, I use Yahoo for my fantasy football team, but yesterday as I went to type in Yahoo Fantasy Sports into my search bar, Yahoo Finance auto-filled there instead. If that's not a sign of how much I use it, then I don't know what is. Okay, but how is your fantasy football team doing? Not great, not great, which is why I'm sticking with Yahoo Finance going forward. If your fantasy football team is already doomed like Toby's, check out the

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Let's start today's show with the housing market, which has officially entered its ice age era. New estimates from Redfin predict that 4.1 million existing homes will be sold in the U.S. this year, which would be the fewest number since 2011, which, if you might recall, was when we were recovering from the housing crisis and the population of the country was much smaller. And if this turns out to be a high ball estimate and the number of home sales ends up lower than 4 million, it'd be the fewest since 1995. This is a deep freeze of historic proportions. And by now you know why no one is buying a home.

Mortgage rates have climbed to their highest levels in 23 years as the Fed has jacked up interest rates. Combine that with elevated prices and you get the least affordable home buying environment since 1985. A record low 16% of consumers surveyed by Fannie Mae said it was a good time to buy a home in September. An activity is not likely going to be picking up anytime soon since the fall and winter are typically the slowest seasons for home buying. No one wants to move during the school year and you probably have allocated your disposable income to buying gifts for the holidays. So the reality right now is even if you make a solid middle class income, even middle to

upper class, you're probably thinking to yourself, I just can't afford this right now. I'm sticking with what I've got. You have to be remarkably committed in order to buy a house and remarkably wealthy to buy a house right now. And it's kind of crazy to see houses are getting marked down right now. Almost 18% of homes listed in September had price reductions, which is something you just don't see. And it's the highest level since November of 2022.

But affordability is still a massive, massive problem because most of the homeowners who purchase during that kind of golden age when mortgage rates were low, are unwilling to move. So not only is the new supply of homes a little low, but the existing supply of people selling their homes is also extremely low. So right now, big affordability crunch, and we're seeing some price knockdowns as well. There's also, I want to talk about the economic ripple effects, because we know in 2008, the housing bubble pop caused a global recession. And while that hasn't happened now, because it has been kind of a slowdown. And rather than a, cratering. There are a lot of economic implications here. First of all, inflation. If you're not

buying a home, you're renting. And I think a couple of just days ago, we talked about the inflation report, and you mentioned how rents were half of all inflation last month. So that is, it is impacting inflation and maybe even forcing the Fed to hike interest rates even more. And then you could also impede economic growth by hurting the sectors that count on people buying homes, moving, construction, the home depots of the world. There are so many economic sectors that rely, and industries that rely on people buying homes, and if they're not doing that now, it could definitely ripple through the economy. Yeah, you'd never want the words deep freeze to be applied to any part of the economy, but also just digging deeper into the buying

versus renting kind of debate. Just using one city, let's go to California, San Jose metro area. The typical home costs $1.4 million, so if a buyer puts 10% down and faces a monthly more rate of around 7% that comes out to an 8,771 per month payment, which is more than $5,000 higher than the monthly rent. So again, if you're doing, if you're weighing the pros and cons of renting versus buying, obviously buying it helps build your net worth and it's a major asset. But then if it's $5,000 more expensive per month, then you can see why rents more people are renting and which is driving rental prices higher as well.

I saw this firsthand at the sweating I was at on Sunday. I had a lot of conversations with people. You know, mid-30s, mid-20s, 25 to 35 range, they were all renting and they're all looking to buy a house. You know, they're starting families, want to move to the suburbs. And I would say four out of five of those conversations involved, I have to stay where I'm at. I just need to continue renting in the city because I'm looking for houses for the last couple months. And it's just absurd. They're like, I make a decent living.

I work hard. And I just can't afford a house right now. So it's just very real for people who are looking for houses where they just can't do it right now. To quote Olivia Rodrigo, it's brutal out here. All right, let's move on to our next story. In a cruel twist, LinkedIn, a platform meant to help people get jobs is conducting a round of layoffs. Yesterday, it announced it is cutting 668 employees with the majority of those coming from the R&D department. As ironic as it is whenever LinkedIn makes job cuts, it's not the first announcement of the year.

It also laid off 716 people five months ago as it phased its app out of China, bringing the total number of job cuts to 1,384. Now, as you might expect, AI has something to do with this. These latest cuts are a chance to refocus on hiring more AI talent as LinkedIn leans into rolling out the new AI powered tools and announced earlier this month like a LinkedIn learning coach. Neil, I feel like this is also a perfect moment to zoom out and take stock of the broader tech sector, which has seen more than 242,000 people laid off so far in 2023. It's interesting to see that number be so large, especially as the overall unemployment rate has remained relatively low

and the job market has stayed hot. This does seem like more of a reorientation than a slimming down because LinkedIn is owned by Microsoft. Microsoft has invested $13 billion into OpenAI and it wants to infuse generative AI into all of its products. LinkedIn seems like a great place to start. I hate filling out my LinkedIn. profile. I think my LinkedIn is last was last updated in 2015. I don't even know if it has

morning brew on it. I probably should get that on it. But if it could write my profile, I would love that. And that's one of the AI tools. It's rolling out. Recruiters have used automation and AI for a couple years now. So I can see LinkedIn being very fertile ground for a lot of AI use cases to just make this process of recruiting and hiring go so much smoother and more efficient. Yeah. Let's just dig into a couple of the tools in their ideas. around AI. You have the AI-assisted candidate discovery for recruiters, as you mentioned. And then there's also AI-powered coaching for some of LinkedIn's premium subscribers. That one, I'm not too bullish on. And then there's the tool for generating profile and job descriptions. We've talked a lot

about dating profiles. Yeah, I do remind me of that. It does seem like we'll see a similar technology for LinkedIn. And then there's also AI-powered conversation starters, which I am so not bullish about because anyone who spent any time on LinkedIn has definitely seen those auto, they're already automated, inbound messaging from someone who can help. Oh, yeah, that's so spammy. It's so spammy. And now I feel like with AI, it's going to just 10x. So I hope they're putting some safeguards in place.

So all of this to say that, of course, LinkedIn is kind of reorienting and reallocating resources towards AI, but we'll see if these micro bets that they're making pay off. Meanwhile, LinkedIn's doing really well, right? Revenue has grown so much. It just surpassed $15 billion for the first time in the last fiscal year. Compare that to other social media companies. it's so much more. Twitter, we know, whatever, Twitter generated $4.4 billion in revenue in 2022.

It's just so much better a business than Twitter. And TikTok generated $9.4 billion of revenue in 2022. So LinkedIn is this behemoth. It's one of the oldest social media platforms. It's been around since 2002. And you just kind of get a sense that its best days are still ahead of it. Once they work out some kinks, maybe do some, you know, make the interface a little more pleasing. and you don't want to be into it,

but it does seem like a lot of creators, and I know you're more in this space than I am, are kind of moving to LinkedIn because your reach is greater than it is on Twitter and other social media platforms. And especially for executives, they can really reach their audience and build their brands on LinkedIn

more so than any other platform. Yeah, there's a, there's a content gulf. A lot more people consume content than produce content on LinkedIn, so there's an asymmetric upside to devoting time and resources to creating. There's a little social media strategy for you. LinkedIn, fertile ground.

Toby is pretty bullish on posting on LinkedIn, but I don't see you posting on LinkedIn. I know. I got to say. Okay, moving on, a lot has been written about the decline of the humanities, how degrees like history and English and philosophy are on extinction watch. Well, there's another college major that's seen a major drop in students, too, and it might surprise some listeners. That degree is accounting.

The number of students that earned a bachelor's degree in accounting plunge 7.8% from the 2021 to the 2022 academic year, while the number of students receiving a master's degree in accounting fell 6.4%. Collectively, they represent the single largest annual drop in accounting degrees since 1995. And this is not what the industry needed since there is already a dire shortage of accountants. From 2019 to 2021, more than 300,000 accountants quit their jobs for other careers, citing low pay, long hours, repetitive work, and the threat of being replaced by a A.I. Toby, accounting was super popular coming out of the recession since firms like KPMG, Ernst & Young offered job security, solid income, and stability. Now it's facing a bit of a reckoning.

Yeah, I mean, when you look at the major complaints, pay has stagnated. The average starting salary for recent grads is $56,000. That number hasn't moved at all since 2008 when you adjust for inflation. So whenever there's low pay, of course you're going to have trouble attracting jobs, but also requires more education. You have to do that extra 50. year. Sometimes those costs are prohibitive as well. And then also outsourcing, not just AI, but outsourcing is becoming more common. So you have places like Malaysia, Argentina, China, India, Mexico, while Deloitte's U.S. business actually employs as many people outside the U.S. as it does overseas. So you're seeing kind of this disbursement of talent, and which is driving the average

starting salary down as well. So it's, I mean, I don't know if we're going to put on an extinction watch because we always need accounting, but it's a major problem. They do need to seem to, seem like these firms do need to boost pay. I didn't know accounting income was at that level. And it didn't, and it didn't grow. And so if you're a business-minded person, you're looking at all of the possible suite of opportunities in management or sales or any sort of those professional services. And you're looking at accounting and you see, you know, you're probably like, and I have to get 150 hours of college credit just to become a CPA. So you can see why a lot of students are maybe opting for other roles in more techy things,

and they're also looking at what's happening in AI, and you see that accountants complain about doing a lot of repetitive tasks, and that seems like something that AI could possibly do. This also reminded me a little bit. Remember when we talked about how no one's taking petroleum engineering jobs anymore, and that was because a lot of students are looking forward and saying, all right, the world is moving towards green energy. I don't know if there's a future in this field.

I wonder if they're feeling the same vibe of they're looking at accounting, They're seeing the outsourcing that's occurring. They're seeing how AI could potentially offload some of the work. And they're saying there's just not a great future for growth in this industry. So I wonder if we're going to eventually enter a world where it's all outsourced and it's all AI. And there's just very little actual accounting happening domestically. I don't know.

I mean, I don't know enough about the industry to say how much is automatable or not. But I feel like not all of it will be. And there will always be demand for accountants. They just have to get the branding a little bit better. So you see a lot of these colleges changing the course descriptions for accounting courses. Instead of starting with debits and credits, they're talking about blockchain and crypto and titling their courses, is your personal data safe to just talk about more of the applications of accounting rather than the nuts and bolts of it? And maybe that will get more students in their pipeline. And it does seem like next year, the number of students in accounting has picked up a little bit.

So you're right. I don't think this is extinction watch, but it is an interesting trend to see how many people have left the profession and the pipeline has been drying up. I know, Neil, we could talk about accounting for the rest of the show it sounds like. But before we jump into the next half of the show, we're going to take a quick break. Study and play. Come together on a Windows 11 PC. And for a limited time, college students get the best of both worlds. Get the Unreal College deal, everything you need, to study and play with select Windows 11 PCs. Eligible students get a year of Microsoft 365 premium and a year of Xbox GamePass Ultimate with a custom color Xbox wireless controller. Learn more at Windows.com slash student offer.

While supplies last ends June 30th, terms at AKA.m.m.S. College PC. It's Tuesday, which means it's time for Toby's trends where I, a young Gen Zer, full of Riz, educate you a suave millennial about a recent trend I've had my eye. on and today's trend is one that I'm sure many of our listeners have encountered over the years, and that is get ready with me. Get Ready With Me or hashtag GRWM videos have become an absolute mainstay of internet culture dating all the way back to the mid-2000s. It features someone, usually an influencer, showcasing some part of their daily routine, often centered around getting dress or putting on makeup. It gives a look into what products and practices an influencer is using, but it also gives that person a backdrop to share stories from their lives and really

lean into the authenticity wave that is sweeping social media right now. Now, again, this is not a new trend by any stretch, but it's evolved a little bit over time, from primarily being a way to peek into celebrity skin and makeup habits, to being a place for a new generation of influencers to relate to their audiences in a much more authentic way. It's been interesting to track it as the internet has grown and into the TikTok era as well. Neil, tell me, have you seen these Get Ready With Me videos? I have. They're not ones I typically linger on, I have to say.

But it's been interesting watching the trend. Has there been any change? You said it's evolved over the time from its Instagram days in the early days to what it is now. But even in the past few years, have you seen it evolved from 2021, TikTok to 2023? Well, absolutely. But I do just want to go back to kind of the beginning of the trend a little bit. Part of the reason we're talking about it right now is because Emily Weiss, who is the founder of Glacier, who probably invented the genre. She used to have this section of the

into the gloss blog that was called the Top Shelf, which popularized, and I can't believe I'm going to say it's, the hashtag Shelfy, which is where celebrities kind of opened up their makeup cabinets and explained the routines for the first time. But now that was all the way back when Instagram right around when Instagram was founded, like the 2010 era. But now you look in the Alex Earle area of the Get Ready With Me Trend, and she basically turned it into almost like an open venting session, a therapy session where she is getting ready and is like looking fabulous, but also sharing these really personal and intimate details from her life. And it's just been interesting to see how it used to be something that for the normal person to look into

celebrities. And now it's normal people kind of behaving like celebrities and just talking about the mundanities of their life. And it's just hit a nerve with people in the authentic TikTok era. And the beauty brands are probably salivating because this does seem like there's a lot of synergy and it's probably been propelled by a lot of brand deals and the fact that, you know, a lot of makeup companies are saying, get ready with my products. Yeah, absolutely. And it's glossier's kind of struggling a little bit because they kind of popularized that way. But now there's so much compositions from, you know, the Kylie Jenner's of the world, these, these influencer tied makeup brands. So you're totally right on that.

Makeup brands are an integral part of this as well. Toby, you're so articulate about get ready with me and makeup. I want to make one. Let's do one. Mine is not very exciting. Get right. What is your get ready with me? It's make my bed, wash my face with just water, get in the Uber and go to work.

So that's about it. No confessionals? No confessionals. Okay, moving on, we've heard for years about the promise of robots making your fast food, flipping burgers, making salads, frying up French fries. But recently, at some chains, there's been serious momentum, and I don't think I'm wrong in saying that by early next year, at least some of our listeners will have their order, at least in part prepared by a machine.

The push is being led by the fast casual chain Sweet Green, which deployed an automated assembly line in Naperville, Illinois, in May. These bots can prepare up to 100 salads in 15 minutes, less than half the time than humans require, and with greater accuracy, too. No more opening up your kale season, wondering where your roasted chicken is. In an interview with the Wall Street Journal, Sweet Green CEO, Jonathan Neiman, said while other companies have tiptoed around investing in robots for food prep, his push is not a gimmick. He said, I'm willing to blow the whole thing up. So at some point, he expects all sweet green locations to have salad-making robots. There are numerous pressures driving this automation push. One is the historically tight margins restaurants have dealt with,

so they're always looking for ways to reduce costs. Another factor is the rise of online ordering. If you go into any fast casual chain, you realize they are essentially operating two restaurants in one. They have to serve the people who come in physically and fulfill orders that come in digitally, and their current operations aren't built for that, and they hope robots can fill in the gaps. Yeah, I don't know if I'm blown away by this kind of sweet green push that we're doing

because it's going to be so expensive to outfit all these restaurants with these new robotic systems. And I don't think that's the reason you go to sweet green is for the absolutely optimized experience where they're getting you through the line as quickly as possible. I feel like you go to sweet green because they've got superior ingredients. And part of the reason why it feels superior is like they're chopping the lettuce, or actually I think that's chopped, but they're manually putting the ingredients together and it feels like this luxury experience.

So I wonder if it's going to backfire in such a way when you just see the robot spitting out chicken. It just doesn't feel the same. Okay, but here's the thing. You said people going to sweet green. But a lot of people aren't going to sweet green. They're ordering online. You could care less how that salad gets to you.

Or how it's made, whether it's through a tube or somebody is chopping the salad themselves. I don't think anyone cares if they're ordering online. They just want to see that bar where it says order to, delivery, they just want to make sure that moves as fast as possible. Yeah, okay, fine.

Well, then the other thing I'm going to hang my hat on, it's going to be very expensive and hard to scale, so maybe that's what I'll say. And also, I will say, I wonder how the technology is actually going to fare because one of the big roadblocks to having this technology worked is there's so many soft ingredients involved in salads. The one that they specifically called out was goat cheese. Because goat cheese, you want crumbled on your salad. So how the heck do you make it come out of a tube?

it's going to be in this big blobby ball. How do you crumble it? So I'm intrigued. I don't need goat cheese crumbled already. Give me the block and I'll crumble it myself. I think that's a fake issue. Chipotle is the other fast casual chain that's really leaning into this.

They have an automated avocado slicer, which is called the autocato. And they also have a robot that's making tortilla chips, and they're also moving forward with a more automated assembly line. The whole idea is to fulfill orders as fast as possible. We saw Starbucks launch one of their biggest reinvention. ever earlier this fall, which because they're leaving, if they serve five more customers a day, they'll make $900 million more in revenue. So all they want to do is just get more people

through the line. What's interesting to me is the labor concerns in all of this because fast food workers are typically not paid so well and they're pushing for higher wages and better working conditions. And they don't have any say over what technology is implemented in the restaurants. And I just think back to the Hollywood strike, the Hollywood Writers' Strike and the actor's strike that is going on. Because they're organized, they're able to push for how technology like AI is implemented in their industry. And the writers were successful at putting safeguards around AI. Fast food workers that are not organized don't have any say in how this happens. So they're just watching from afar kind of helpless as Sweet Green and other chains put in these robots.

And these companies are saying that, you know, we're going to have robots. and workers work together to make salads. Eventually, it doesn't seem like that's going to be the case because I don't think robots are going to be as expensive as people. Yeah, maybe in the short term, worker pay will go up because there's less workers that have to be there on a day. But, I mean, I guess it's a little bit of speculation at this point, but it is so interesting to see how, I mean, I wouldn't call it AI,

but automation is affecting industries from, yeah, Hollywood all the way down to fast food. All right, Neil, for our final story of the day, I want to talk about the new Olympic sports. coming our way in 2028. Yesterday, the International Olympic Committee said hello or welcome back to baseball, softball, lacrosse, squash cricket, and yes, flag football for the 2028 games in Los Angeles. Now, the first one I want to focus on here is the return of cricket, who had a very short-lived debut over 100 years ago, but is officially coming back much to the delight of the Olympic Committee.

Cricket is massive, especially in India, so adding it to the games will no doubt increase the value of India's Olympic broadcasting rights. Some are saying by as much as $100 million. And following similar logic, the NFL backed the addition of flag football, which should give the games a big sponsorship boost, as well as raise the profile of American football on the global stage. Neil, I love the idea of expanding into new markets and testing out new sports. Which one of these are you most excited for?

I was most interested in reading about squash. I played squash a few times. It's really hard. It's an amazing workout. It's super fun racket sport. But I was surprised at its international appeal. It's played in more than 150 countries. And world champions have come from all over from Egypt, Malaysia, Pakistan, and Australia.

I did not know that Egypt actually dominates the top right now. I didn't know that they were nasty at Squash, but it's super cool. So I don't know if Squash is an amazing spectator sport. It looks pretty grueling because the ball doesn't bounce and everyone's just kind of reaching over for the ball each time. but you can smack it. And I think it's cool. I think it's a cool racquet sport. And I think it just speaks to the growth of racquet sports in general,

whether it's whatever it's called pickleball and Padill. And I hope I pronounce that, okay. Padale. Padale. So I don't know. I think racquet sports are having a moment, so it's cool to see squash in there. Yeah.

And the NFL angle is huge as well. The NFL has been investing a ton of resources into flag football because to then they see it as their entryway into the global market. It's not very easy to spin up an entire football. seen in other countries, but flag football is something that you can play at recess. It's played in Mexico. It's part of Japan's recess curriculum. So it is, they think, their global version of their sport.

So, and NFL, most lucrative sports league on earth. So, of course, the Olympic Committee wants some of that sponsorship dollars. This is all strategic, we should say. This is all to increase the Olympics reach and viewership. It's not because they feel bad that cricket hasn't been out for 100 years or they think flag football will be an exceptionally amazing. sport to watch, even though apparently Gronk is very interested in playing flag football

and there's speculation that a lot of former NFL stars would play on the U.S. team, which sounds sick. I don't know who they'd play against. I would play against everyone. Canada. Yeah, there's people who play flag football everywhere. But Neil, this is a fun question and feel free to weigh in on this two listeners. Winter or

Summer Olympics, you have four years to train with unlimited resources. You never get injured. Which Olympic sports team do you think you can make? I mean, bobside seems like the one, Like those types of winter sports where you're just kind of hurtling down, not to say that they don't require skill. But those are the ones that seem like if you don't have any prior experience, you could learn those the fastest. I've heard of people joining particular teams where they're not, you know, no one grows up with bobsled.

So there does have to be a quick ramp up period. See, but I feel like bobsled you need to be just incredibly explosive in a bunch of former. Okay, it's a bunch of former track athletes doing it. Not to say you're not explosive, but I don't know if you're on the. level of a Lolo Jones. Like shooting or? Yeah, maybe one of those. But even that, like that takes such a high skill curve.

I don't know. What about being on like, you know, I think there's sailing competitions, right? There we go. Now we're talking. So I'm just, you know, on the sailboat, you know, being, you know, the right weight to balance the boat. I think in four years you could probably learn sailing. So, all right, call them up IOC.

Wow, we're going to have so many sailing listeners in the comments being like, you have no idea how hard it is and that's probably true. That is a wrap on our show. Have a wonderful Tuesday, everyone. I'm going to the gym to work on my explosiveness. As always, don't hesitate to email us at Morning Brew Daily at MorningBrew.com. Let's roll the credits.

Emily Milliron is our editor and producer. Samantha Vela's and Raymond Lue are associate producers. Euchenawa Ogu is our technical director. Billy Minino is on audio. Hair and makeup wants you to get ready with them. Devin Emery is our chief content officer and our show is a production of Morning Brew. Great show today, Neil.

Let's run it back tomorrow. Aw. Pay off your home. travel for life drive a Ferrari. In celebration of the world premiere of the Monopoly Big Board Buckslot Machine by Aristocrat Gaming, Yamava Resort and Casino at San Manuel is giving one person a $1.6 million

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