Morning Brew Daily - Industries React to Trump Tariffs & Drake-Kendrick Beef Goes to Court
Episode Date: November 27, 2024Episode 462: Neal and Toby examine what Trump’s broad tariffs on China, Mexico, and Canada could mean for everyday goods for millions of Americans. Then, the Biden administration is proposing to exp...and medicare and medicaid to foot the bill for popular weight-loss drugs like Ozempic, Wegovy, and more. Plus, Drake is accusing his record label, Universal Music Group, for boosting airplay of Kendrick Lamar’s diss track. Meanwhile, Neal shares his favorite numbers on airline junk fees, AI tools in the workplace, and NYC hotel rates. Lastly, big headlines to round out your day. Download the Yahoo! Finance App (on the Play and App store) for real-time alerts on news and insights tailored to your portfolio and stock watchlists. Subscribe to Morning Brew Daily for more of the news you need to start your day. Share the show with a friend, and leave us a review on your favorite podcast app. Listen to Morning Brew Daily Here: https://link.chtbl.com/MBD Watch Morning Brew Daily Here: https://www.youtube.com/@MorningBrewDailyShow Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
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Good morning brew daily show.
I'm Neil Fryman.
And I'm Toby Howell.
Today, Drake takes his wrap beef with Kendrick Lamar into the courtroom.
Then another trade war is brewing after Trump threatened tariffs against Mexico, Canada, and China.
It's Wednesday, November 27.
Let's ride.
Well, you all made it.
It is the Wednesday before Thanksgiving.
Soak it in because this is the Friday-us-feeling Wednesday you'll get all year.
Hope you're taking some time off this week to spend with family.
and you finally get to try out that maple glazed turkey recipe you saw on TikTok.
Toby and I are going to be off, but we did jump in the studio earlier this week to record a special Thanksgiving episode for you.
So definitely tune in tomorrow morning.
We covered everything from turkey trots to how much it would cost for MBD to get a balloon in the Macy's Thanksgiving Day parade.
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Donald Trump took aim at three of America's biggest trading partners this week,
posting on true social his plans to impose 25% tariffs on all goods from Mexico and Canada
as a retaliation for the flow of drugs and migrants into the U.S.
He's also eyeing a 10% tariff on goods from China,
on top of an existing 15% import duty that has been in place since 2018.
Those three nations Trump mentioned traded with the U.S. more than the kid who showed up
with fruit by the foot at the middle school lunch tables.
The three North American countries alone exchanged about $1.8 trillion worth of goods.
Meanwhile, annual U.S. trade with China is about $600 billion,
but which goods in companies are set to be the most affected
should these tariffs come down the pipeline?
Well, the first big industry that is sweating is certainly energy.
Canada is the top supplier of crude oil to the U.S.
and accounted for 60% of U.S. crude imports last year.
Automobiles are another huge one. GM, Stalantis, and Ford are among Mexico's biggest exporters to the U.S.
to the U.S. more than 255,000 cars were shipped into the U.S. from Mexico just in October alone this year.
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Canada also ships a lot of vehicles and car parts our way.
And then on the Chinese front, we get so many things from our geopolitical rival,
from electronics to furniture.
It's hard to choose just one category that would be affected.
But Trump's approach likely doesn't bode well for those Chinese-linked
marketplaces like She and Temu, which will see their import costs go up. Toby, dealer's choice on
where to start here because there are so many industries that are going to be affected.
I mean, let's start by just continuing down the list, Neil. Fruits and veggies are also going to be
hugely affected as well. A ton of produce that you see in American supermarkets does come in from Mexico.
Mexico is the number one exporter of raspberries, tomatoes, strawberries, and obviously avocados into
the United States. Then if you head north, the meat and dairy industry is also going to
to be affected. Canada sends tons, actually millions of cows for dairy and beef our way,
as well as a bunch of hogs across their southern border. So it really doesn't matter which
industry you want to look at. Since trade is so big between the North American countries as well
as China, pretty much everything is going to be affected by these tariffs. It is. I mean,
this, you know, there was an interview with a leader in the auto industry in Canada. And he said
something like this. He's like, we are beyond partners. We are almost in.
as family. More than $1.5 trillion in goods is exchanged every single year between the United
States, Canada, and Mexico. And that is in part because of a free trade agreement that Trump
himself signed in his first term, Usmica, or the U.S.-Mexico-Canada agreement. And now the U.S.
receives 83% of Mexico's imports and 75% of Canada's exports last year. So the bulk of what they
make and ship abroad comes into the United States. Everything you buy, mostly everything you buy,
either has in part or in full some part that was made in Canada or Mexico. So putting a tariff
of 25% on every single good that is shipped into the U.S. from those countries will have
massive, massive ramifications for businesses and consumers. I think one industry that we do have to
drill in on a little bit more is the auto making industry as well, because it is just a huge part of
Mexico at this point, a lot of factories that we mentioned before are set up there.
And if you look at the stock market yesterday, GM, Chrysler, Ford, all plunged on the news
that Trump was thinking about levying these tariffs because a lot of the auto parts are made
in Mexico and become more expensive with these tariffs. Tesla's stock weirdly rose yesterday,
which is, I don't know, Tesla is a little bit divorced from the wider auto market sometimes,
despite the fact that Tesla does have plans to build a gigafactory.
down there in Mexico.
And then even if you go across to European indexes, they fell to because they are another
potential prime tariff target.
Trump has said in the past that he wants to kind of normalize trade relations between
Europe and the United States, particularly when it comes to European automakers.
So this is one industry that is going to be heavily affected by Trump's plan to lever these
tariffs.
Let's just talk about what happens when tariffs come down the pipeline.
Basically, it's a tax on the companies that import these.
these goods. So what they can do is either eat the 25% and harm their margins, or they can
raise prices and pass those costs along to the consumer. And that's what Goldman Sachs expects.
The bank issued a report yesterday saying that all of these tariffs, if they were implemented,
would raise inflation by 1%. So that's what perhaps you can expect. The question here is whether
the tariffs are actually going to come to pass.
Historically, Trump has used tariffs as a negotiating tool to extract concessions from
countries.
Here, he wants a crackdown on the border and fentanyl coming into the United States.
So we'll see how leaders from other countries respond to that.
This may just kickstart a negotiation.
We saw Justin Trudeau, the Prime Minister of Canada, immediately stop what he was doing yesterday,
get on the phone with Trump and said they had a construct.
conversation. Mexico's president was a little less accommodating Claudia
Scheinbaum. She wrote a letter to Trump suggesting that she would retaliate with tariffs
of their own on the United States goods, which would harm American companies that would
export abroad. So it set off a massive scramble by the countries that were targeted,
by the countries that were targeted yesterday to sort of start negotiations. So these will not
come to pass. And at least investors broadly do not think that these tariffs will actually
happened because if you look at the broader stock market, it did go up yesterday.
All three major indexes, automakers did go down, but overall stocks did pretty well.
The Biden administration announced an initiative yesterday that would massively expand access
to weight loss drugs.
The government proposed that Medicare and Medicaid cover obesity drugs like Wigovie from
Novo Nordisk and Zepbound from Eli Lilly, which would extend access to the super popular
but expensive medications for more than 7 million patients.
As a refresher, Medicare is the federal health insurance program for people age 65 and older, while Medicaid covers poor and disabled Americans.
Under existing rules, Medicare doesn't cover drugs that are explicitly for weight loss since it was considered a cosmetic treatment.
But Biden's health officials are getting around those rules by claiming that the growing scientific consensus is that obesity is a chronic health condition.
Whether this proposal becomes actual policy remains an open question.
It would need to be approved by the incoming Trump administration, and the nominee to lead
Health and Human Services, RFK Jr., is no fan of obesity drugs.
Plus, covering the medication would be pricey and is estimated to cost the government $36 billion
over the next decade.
Toby, if it clears those hurdles, this plan would be a game changer.
It would be a game changer, but let's drill into those two hurdles because they are rather large.
This would run Medicare about $25 billion Medicaid, about $11 billion over $3.
10 years. The government officials do say that they don't expect it to increase out-of-pocket
premiums, but that is definitely at odds with the incoming administration's general plan to
cut federal spending. So that is one big issue. And then the second issue you mentioned is R.FK Jr.,
he is not a fan of these drugs at all. He instead wants to prioritize access to healthy nutrition
rather than doing it through big pharma, which he has been a pretty, yeah, pretty anti-big pharma so far.
So I do think that those are pretty decent-sized hurdles.
One thing going in its favor, though, is the fact that this is going to be very popular with a lot of seniors, a lot of people who are covered by Medicare and Medicaid.
So maybe Trump just looks at that and says, hey, a lot of people do want this.
So maybe we can actually push this through despite the increased cost that it's going to run the government.
Yeah, and generally public opinion is in favor of this.
A recent survey by the Kaiser Family Foundation, which is a health policy group, found that over 60,
percent of Americans support Medicare coverage for these drugs. And the guy who's going to be
leading Medicare and Medicaid, who will serve under RFK Jr., Dr. Oz, is a big fan of these drugs.
He said, we need all the tools in the toolkit in order to combat obesity, which affected 40%
of all Americans last year. But I just want to drill down on the scope of this, how many more
people it's going to cover because a 2020 study by Brown researchers found that two,
these two programs covered 40% of Americans with obesity and 46% with related health problems.
So a lot of people are suffering under these conditions, but these drugs are so expensive.
I mean, they can top $1,200 a month for semaglutides like Zepbound and Wigobi.
So it's just been out of, it's hard to pay out of pocket if you don't have, if you don't
have insurance. So if Medicare and Medicaid were to cover this, it would expand access very,
very much. And the pharma companies are totally behind this. Eli Lilly and Nova Nordisk,
which make these are fully in support, they want more coverage to get their drugs and more people's
drug habits. And honestly, they're going to be fine no matter what. Yes, increased coverage
means it will inevitably lead to wider adoption. But also, even if they don't get this coverage,
like they are charging very high premiums for these drugs and a lot of people do use them. So they're
kind of winning no matter what here. It's just a matter of how much they might win.
Well, Drake is still big mad about losing his rap battle to Kendrick Lamar. So he's taking
the second round of their beef to the courtroom. Drake made a court filing this week, alleging that
Universal Music Group conspired to artificially inflate Kendrick Lamar's summer banger not like
us on music streaming services using bots and other tactics. Now, the ironic part about this allegation
is that UMG is the parent of both Kendrick and Drake's record labels.
Given their affiliations, people have dubbed this spat rap's civil war.
On top of the inflated streaming suit, Drake's legal team also filed another action against UMG,
alleging defamation for releasing Not Like Us, knowing it was falsely accusing him of being a sex offender,
according to the suit.
The suit says that UMG's plan was to turn Not Like Us into this viral mega hit and drive consumer
hysteria and of course massive revenues. So now you have two suits rekindling this mega beef
with the UMG at the center of all. Neil Drake brought a lawyer to a rat battle. He did.
And there's no question that not like us was a massive hit. I mean, that is understood by
everyone across this legal battle. It had, it currently has more than 900 million streams on
Spotify. It was nominated for five Grammys, including Record of the Year and Song of
the year. The question that Drake is raising in, there is not a lot of evidence so far that he's put
forward, is whether Universal conspired with people to create bots and inflate these streaming
numbers. He also is alleging that Universal charged Spotify, a 30% lower licensing rate for
Not Like Us, in order to get that, in order to get that song in front of more people.
There wasn't a lot of evidence that was named in this petition. And we should say, this
was a petition. It is maybe the precursor to a lawsuit. It is something you file with the court
in order to gather evidence and prepare yourself for a lawsuit. So that hasn't happened completely
yet, but it does cite an unnamed whistleblower who said he was paid by Lamar's label to use
bots to help not like us get 30 million streams on Spotify in his first days of release.
Some other specifics of the suit is that UMG had this financial agreement with Apple to have
Siri, when users said play certified lover boy, which was the name of Drake's album,
it would play Not Like Us instead because there is a lyric within Not Like Us that does say
Certified Leverboy.
So Drake was probably, I want to imagine he was sitting at home and he goes, Siri, play
Certified Leverboy and it plays not like us.
He goes, calls his lawyer up and goes, we need to sue UMG right now because they are playing
Kendrick's song instead of my album.
But you are right.
A lot of it is a little bit,
no smoking gun has emerged as of yet,
but you might expect that if Drake did feel the need to file this initial suit,
then he has something that he's sitting on.
Because if not, it's just a pretty bad look in the court of public opinion.
Because, again, I said he's bringing a lawyer to a rap battle.
That is not something that gives you a ton of street grid
when you are trying to battle someone.
So maybe he's got something, maybe he doesn't,
but it's clear that he's still not over, not like us.
Up next, I know.
it's Wednesday, but we have a special early edition of Neal's numbers.
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Welcome to Neal's numbers, the segment where I share three stats from the week's news
that will make you the most interesting person at your Thanksgiving meal tomorrow.
My first number is how much your last minute splurge for a couple of inches of extra legroom is making airlines.
It's a lot.
A Senate investigative panel found that U.S. Airlines' American Delta United Spirit and Frontier made $12.4 billion alone
from customers choosing seats on planes from 2018 to 2023.
According to the report, United charged as much as $319 for an extra legroom seat,
spear it as much as $299, and Delta up to 264.
The subcommittee chair, Senator Richard Blumenthal,
was highly critical of those algorithmic seating fees,
saying these confusing dynamic pricing tactics, burdened travelers, and boost airline revenue.
The airline industry didn't appreciate getting smacked,
around like a pinata by lawmakers.
Spirit Airlines shop back.
We are transparent about our products and pricing.
Our airport policies ensure guests are treated fairly and equally.
The lobbying group Airlines for America argued the increased choice has democratized air travel
to the point where 90% of Americans have flown on a plane.
Senators and airlines will have the opportunity to duke it out on December 4th
when execs from the companies called out in the report will testify at a hearing on Capitol Hill.
I want to drill into some other parts of this report, though, because this report said that some airlines have these bounty programs that they pay gate agents to cash incentives to identify customers who are trying to avoid fees for carry-on bags.
We've all been there before, where you probably didn't pay for a carry-on bag, but you're trying to sneak it by, and then a gate agent calls you out.
Frontier had a big one where they're charging, they're giving gate personnel up to $10 for each bag of passenger is forced to check at their gate because they want to reap these extra.
bag fees. I have been there before, too. I've had a horrible experience where I got
Nab for trying to carry on a tuxedo and they consider that an extra bag. And I was like,
I'm just going to hang it up. And so I'm still a little bitter about this. But seeing just
how much money these airlines are making off of all these extra fees that they just get you
for is definitely something that I think a lot of people can relate to. For my second number,
a new survey revealed how many highly motivated Gen Z knowledge workers use generative AI tools like
chat, GPT, Dolly, or other products, think you have a guess? The answer is basically all of them.
Or if you want to get specific about it, 93%. That finding came from a Google survey of more than
1,000 full-time knowledge workers who are either in leadership positions or aspire to be in one.
And while virtually all Gen Z workers use generative AI, millennials are not that far behind,
with 79% of respondents age 28 to 39, saying they use at least two AI tools a week.
So what do they use it for?
Revising emails and documents, taking notes during meetings, and generating ideas when you have
writers block and need that light bulb moment, Google said.
Toby, there's reason to be a little skeptical of this data since it's coming from Google,
which has invested tens of billions of dollars into making generative AI a thing that people
use and spend money on.
Still, it does mesh with my experience of talking to friends.
about whether they use AI at work.
And the answer is almost always yes.
Yes, I do think that is good.
Consider the source here because there was another survey earlier this year,
commissioned by Slack, that talked to a more broad group of people,
17,000 workers across multiple different countries and continents.
And they actually found that overall AI adoption was stalling out.
Nearly half of workers says they weren't even comfortable admitting they used the technology.
But then you contrast it with this survey from Google,
where 93% of Gen Z said that they were using these tools.
And it could just be a generational divide that we're looking at here.
It does seem like younger people are much more transparent about the tools they are using.
I think that has tracked a little bit.
Some of the older people I talk to, it's like a secret that they want to keep hidden away
that they're using this thing, whereas young people are like, yeah, I either use it or I don't
use it.
So maybe it's generational.
Maybe it's something that is just specific to this group of people that Google specifically
surveyed.
Which are like leaders and aspiring leaders.
So pretty highly motivated people, quote unquote, overachievers.
But it's clear that they're using AI and they think AI will help them get ahead.
Right.
52% of that group did say of Gen Z said that they frequently discuss their AI tools with colleagues.
So again, that is what I'm saying, that they are more transparent about their AI usage.
For my final number, if you're thinking about traveling to New York City to see the Rockefeller Center Christmas Tree,
let me know if you want to crash on my couch because hotel prices are getting.
absurd. The average price of a hotel room in New York in September was $417. The city's highest monthly
rate ever, according to real estate company co-star. In fact, the only place with more expensive
hotels that month was Maui. We've come a long way since peak COVID when an empty time
square looks straight out of I am legend. Tourism has bounced back to pre-pandemic levels and hotels
have increased their prices due to strong demand. A night at a mid-scale hotel in Manhattan has risen
more than 50% since fall 2020, according to Co-Star.
But that hasn't dissuaded people from booking rooms.
In September, when the average was $417 to stay the night,
91% of rooms were occupied right about where they were before COVID.
Toby, I bet a lot of people who are coming into New York this holiday season
are going to take one look at hotel prices and then immediately open up their phones
to call their friends and ask to stay with them.
Yeah, you definitely got to have a couch to crash on if you want to come,
but people are still coming to the city.
one organization that promotes tourism in New York City said that they had not seen any indications
that rising room prices were actually dissuading people from coming to visit. They estimated that
about 65 million people will visit the city year down a little bit from 66 million people
that have visited in 2019, but still a very healthy number. You look at occupancy rates to across the city,
91% of rooms were occupied in September. So I don't know who these people are coming,
but they clearly have some deep pockets because clearly these ultra-high
places, the highest they've ever been, is not dissuading travelers from actually coming to
visit the city. I think eventually they're going to get expensive where people are just going to
say, I can't do this. Or they're going to go to stay in Jersey City, a Hoboken, Fort Lee, and
come into the city or Long Island or parts of the outer boroughs. You're probably going to see
that a little bit more near train stations to come in. But it's kind of insane that getting a hotel
in Manhattan, which luckily I haven't had to do in a while, is so ridiculous, especially
if you have a family. I mean, there's, you know, there's one person versus four people,
which hikes up the cost the most. And then plus, you probably have to pay extra to get your
seats together from the airline. So all the Neal's numbers are numbering right now.
Let's sprint to the finish with some final headlines. Walmart became the latest and
biggest U.S. corporation to dial back policies related to diversity, equity, and inclusion,
or DEI following conservative pressure. Facing a consumer boycott led by anti-DI activist Robbie
Starbucks, the world's largest retailer, confirmed a number of reversals, including barring
third-party merchants on its website, from selling some LGBTQ-themed products marketed to children,
and stopping the use of the terms DEI and Latinx and official communications.
The company said some of those changes were already in the works, but it's clear that external
pressure accelerated those moves. Toby, significant that Walmart is walking back DEI?
Yeah, I mean, Starbucks, as well as some decisions handed by the Supreme Court this year,
blocking affirmative action in higher education have pushed a lot of American corporations,
companies like John Deere, Harley Davidson, Lowe's, Fords, among others, to move away from,
quote, wokeness, as Robbie Starbuck puts it. So Walmart is the latest and the biggest company
to do so. So yeah, I do think it is pretty significant. Intel needs a serious side of guac to go
along with all the chips it will be making because the government just granted them $7.8 billion
to build out its manufacturing operation via the Chips Act.
Because its Intel and Intel has been on the struggle bus recently, the government actually
cut its funding to under $8 billion from the original $8.5 billion it had earmarked it for.
But still, it's the biggest recipient of money under the Chips Act.
One thing that might have also led to the funding drop is a $3 billion contract that Intel
has been offered to produce chips for the U.S. military.
But, Neil, I kind of feel like Intel just fails upwards these days.
It does, but, you know, there are last best hope for making trips here in the United States
because they do have the know-how.
They do have a lot of capital now to spend on building factories.
And this has been a huge initiative of the Biden administration.
And just like they're doing with Wagovi and Zepbound to get those covered by Medicare,
this is the Biden administration in its last few months, making sure that some of their
biggest initiatives are going to be spent before the Trump administration comes.
and a lot of these big programs are a big question mark about whether they will be
whether they will be extended.
So that's exactly what the administration is doing here, just getting it, you know, that
gift where it's like, take them, take my money and go.
The Netflix CEO, that's exactly what's happening here.
A new chat bot from a British phone company is here to help you combat those phone
scammers blowing up your phone.
Dubbed Daisy, the so-called AI Grandma, works much like your own sweet grandmother you haven't
caught up with in a while.
The bots maker, O2, says that Daisy's mission is to, quote,
talk with fraudsters and waste as much of their time as possible
with human-like rambling to keep them away from real people.
Daisy was actually trained on hours of recorded conversations
with one of her creator's real-life grandma, so you know it's accurate.
And according to early results, Daisy has kept bad actors on the phone
for up to 40 minutes at a time.
Daisy doesn't intercept any calls,
but she does have multiple phone numbers out there
that O2 has worked to get into circulation as big.
for the scammers. And Neil, I just love this story. I love this. We talk about a lot of uses of
AI as a way of, you know, scaling up things that humans could do, but take a lot of time.
And I think this is the perfect example because there are scambaters out there where they get
on the phone with scammers. I don't know why they do it exactly, but they just love to keep
them on the phone. You know, the official advice is just hang up. But they're human scambaters out
there. And they worked with O2 to create this AI.
Granny that just rambles on forever about her grandkids and her inability to use tech and her pets and her cats and her birds.
So this is just a hilarious story.
I don't think it's going to impact the massive amount of phone scams that are happening because those are, you know,
the average American gets eight phone calls scams a month and globally they've stolen over $1 trillion from people.
So this is the scale of this is too much for as much for AI Granny.
I know AI Grant is doing a lot of work, but the scale is absurd.
Finally, before we sign off for the holiday, here's your weather forecast for the extended weekend.
The busiest stretch of the year for travel in the United States.
It's going to be mostly okay, but definitely a few trouble spots.
Today, a storm is forecast to dump heavy snow on mountainous areas of the west.
While tomorrow, rain is going to drench Snoopy at the Macy's Thanksgiving Day parade in New York City.
Then the cold comes, and Arctic blast is going to freeze the Midwest and eastern U.S. into the weekend with the coldest,
of the year so far. And finally, here is a PSA from the TSA. If you're flying home with Thanksgiving
leftovers, turkey and stuffing are okay to carry on a plane, but cranberry sauce and gravy
are, I guess, considered liquids and are limited to 3.4 ounces. That is actually great to
know, but I don't know who is going to be taking Thanksgiving leftovers on the plane. I was traveling
last Thanksgiving flying home, and I'm not kidding, the vouchers to get people to skip this
flight and go to another one. Reach over $2,000.
So maybe if you run into some travel issues, your loved ones might understand if you come bearing $2,000 in flight vouchers as a gift.
Let's wrap it up there.
Thank you so much for listening.
Have a wonderful Thanksgiving and safe travels.
Don't forget to tune in tomorrow and Friday for some special episodes.
But more importantly, we hope you are able to get in some quality time with family and friends.
For any questions, comments, or feedback, send an email to Morning Brew Daily at morningbrew.com.
And speaking of being thankful, we'd be thankful.
thankful if you shared the podcast with someone you know.
Maybe there's that awkward extended silence during your meal that you can fill with a, hey,
have you heard about this podcast?
Toby, any other ideas?
Yeah, I'm going to keep it simple today.
Just share the podcast with someone you are grateful for.
This is what Thanksgiving is all about.
So give the gift of MBD and send a nice note letting them know why you are happy to have that person in your life.
Let's roll the credits.
Emily Milliron is our executive producer.
Raymond Liu is our producer.
Olivia Graham is our associate producer.
Yuchinawa Ogu is our technical director.
Billy Minino is on audio.
Hair and makeup has begun to brine the turkey, dry brine, of course.
Devin Emery is our chief content officer and our show is a production of Morning Brew.
Great. Show today, Neil. Let's run it back tomorrow.
Own it all. Pay off your home, travel for life, drive a Ferrari.
In celebration of the world premiere of the Monopoly Big Board Buckslot
machine by Aristocrat Gaming, Yamava Resort and Casino at San Manuel is giving one person
a $1.6 million dream package. The biggest prize in Yamava's history.
Club Serrano members can earn daily instant prizes
and secure a spot in the finale May 29th.
Don't pass go and own it all only at Yamava,
celebrating its 40th anniversary.
You win?
Details at yamava.com must be 21-20.
Please gamble responsibly.
Monopoly is a trademark of Hasbro.
Hasbro is not a sponsor of this promotion.
