Morning Brew Daily - Iran War Sparks Market Mayhem & Will Live Nation Be Broken Up?

Episode Date: March 3, 2026

Episode 791: Neal and Toby give an update on the Iran war and its impact on the stock market, causing traders to move with caution. Then, ticket seller giant Live Nation goes on trial to face accusations of being a monopoly. And, with the purchase of Warner Bros. Discovery, Skydance plans to merge Paramount+ with HBO into one big app to challenge Netflix. Meanwhile, Sweetgreen used to be the darling of Wall Street. Now it’s wilting under sagging sales.  Learn more about Bland AI at bland.ai/mbd Join us for trivia! https://mbdtrivianight-march2026.splashthat.com/ Subscribe to Morning Brew Daily for more of the news you need to start your day. Share the show with a friend, and leave us a review on your favorite podcast app. Listen to Morning Brew Daily Here:⁠ ⁠⁠https://www.swap.fm/l/mbd-note⁠⁠⁠  Watch Morning Brew Daily Here:⁠ ⁠⁠https://www.youtube.com/@MorningBrewDailyShow⁠ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Many employees can't afford a hefty medical bill that pops up out of the blue, but it happens. And employees who are financially stressed are, understandably, more likely to be distracted at work, costing their employers greatly in lost productivity. Luckily, AFLAQ plans help with out-of-pocket expenses not covered by health insurance and can be offered at no direct cost to businesses. Learn more at aflac.com slash morningbredaily. That's aflack.com slash morning bradale. Good morning bradley show. I'm Neil Fryman.

And I'm Toby Howell. Today, war in the Middle East is escalating and energy supplies are under attack. Then Paramount Plus and HBO Max are combining to take on Netflix. It's Tuesday, March 3rd. Let's Ride. Good morning. Pixar might have rediscovered its fastball. Hoppers, which comes out in theaters this Friday, has debuted with a 97% Rotten Tomato score, making it the highest rated Pixar movie in a decade.

And with a plot that, according to, to Forbes follows a young student who uses her professor's newly developed technology to transfer her consciousness to a beaver. Perhaps it'll spark some of that Pixar magic that's been lost. The most recent Pixar movie, Elio, was a major flop last year, bringing in the lowest ever opening weekend gross for any of the studio's 29 films. Toby, when in doubt, lean on talking beavers. This is a surprising success to say the least because this movie is weird and niche, which goes against what Pixar's own CCO, Peter Doctor, said would be, their new approach after putting out Elio, which flopped so hard.

Doctor said the studio would focus on projects that had clear mass appeal inside out to made $1.7 billion. But then we get a Talking Beaver movie, so not sure about the mass appeal of that, but it sounds great. I'm intrigued. I think I'm going to go see it. We had Talking Toys, and why not, you know, ostensibly, the next thing that would lead to Talking Beaver's.

Sure, it has a 97% Rotten Tomato score, but will people go out and see it? that's the true measure of success. And now a word from our sponsor, Bland AI. Neil, do you remember what I asked you about yesterday? Toby, in the last 24 hours, we talked on the phone over text and over Messenger. You're going to have to be more specific. See, this is why I keep asking for an AI co-host. Bland AI would never forget the super important things I tell them

because they created a unified interactive voice response across SMS calls and chat. They help you move from clunky menu-based IV to natural human-like AI voice that can actually resolve issues end to end. They're able to drive serious ROI across industries, and their 127% net revenue retention rate means people keep buying more of Bland for their business. To learn more, head to bland.aI slash MBD. That's Bland.A.I.mbd. Stocks are tumbling this morning, and oil is spiking as the full-scale war in the Middle East rages for a fourth day. Since the U.S. and Israel attacked Iran on Saturday, the conflict has expanded to consume at least 11 countries in the region, with Iran retaliating against U.S. assets in places like the UAE, Bahrain,

Qatar, and Saudi Arabia. Wall Street might finally be taking this war seriously as a threat to global energy production and transit. S&P futures are off 1.8% as of 6 a.m. Eastern, while the NASDAQ has tumbled over 2.3%. If the sell-off holds, it would mark a departure from yesterday when traders bought the dip on the hope that the war would be short-lived and not spill over to the global economy. At least, according to U.S. officials, it won't be particularly short-lived, Speaking yesterday, President Trump said that early projections had Operation Epic Fury lasting four to five weeks, though that timeline could change. Also, facing criticism that this war has no rationale or endgame, Trump tried to clarify his messaging by laying out four objectives, destroy Iran's missile capabilities, take out their Navy, ensure they can never make a nuclear weapon and prevent Iran from funding terrorism outside its borders. Those goals will take time to achieve, if they're doable at all. And despite the chill atmosphere on Wall Street yesterday, threats to global energy supplies are increasing. Yesterday, Qatar said it was shutting down the world's largest export facility of liquefied natural gas, taking out 20% of total supply and sending European gas prices nearly

40% higher. And as for the all-important Strait of Hormuz, through which one in five oil barrels passes through, an Iranian commander said the country would set fire to any ship that tries to transverse it. Toby Wall Street was eager to buy the dip yesterday. It's unclear whether they're going to be so sanguine today as the war ramps up. Yeah, you're right, because geopolitical flare-ups historically have been seen as short-term buying opportunities, and that's what it looked like we had yesterday. Everybody who was kind of, the market opened red, but then people piled into equities and turned it back into the green. And then we kind of reconvened this morning and looked at futures, and we go, okay, that is not the story anymore. Like, they are now pricing

in a much longer conflict, a much more ill-defined end period to this conflict, especially I want to talk about the liquefied natural gas industry, because, yeah, a 50% jump in prices for Europe is a big deal. That's the biggest jump since 2022. The Strait of Hormuz is especially damaging for European energy prices because Goldman Sachs estimates that they could more than double U.S. LNG exporters, which stands for liquefied national gas, actually stand to benefit. They go a different route. That's actually unaffected by the Strait of Hormuz. So financially, this is very good for U.S. LNG producers, very bad for Europe in general, which is I think we saw a bit of a repricing of this conflict in the broader market.

Yeah. I mean, we are actively heading toward the worst case scenario, which the worst case scenario for global energy markets and the global economy in a conflict in the Middle East is two-pronged. One is the straight of Hormuz gets closed, which it seems to be effectively closed right now. Number two is Iran launching attacks against production facilities in the Gulf. And we saw Qatar's largest, Qatar is the second largest liquid, liquefied natural gas, supporter, its biggest facility out of commission. There's another oil production facility in Saudi Arabia that was taken out of commission as well. So you're starting to see Iranian

attacks against those production facilities, starting to take those offline and constrain global supply. Now, as we talked about yesterday, the United States has plenty of supply in oil and also in natural gas. So it seems to be somewhat shielded. But for other places that buy a lot of Gulf energy, like China, like Asia and like Europe, then this is sending off some morning bells. And you mentioned that a lot of infrastructure is being targeted now. Another type of battleground for infrastructure targeting is data centers. Amazon Web Services reported that multiple of their data centers were knocked offline by drone attacks, maybe not direct drone attacks. Maybe they were damaged by debris. But that being said, they are being treated

like critical infrastructure in the way that a oil refinery would be or a water desalination the plant would be. The joke is that, you know, Amazon itself is almost a nation state given the size and importance to so many businesses and a country. So that is something to keep an eye on is, do these attacks start targeting tech companies as well because of the infrastructure capabilities that they provide? The question everyone's watching is what happens with oil. Brent crude is up to $80 a barrel of 13 percent in the past five days. The benchmark that traders are looking at where it might spill over to the U.S. US and broader economy is $100 a barrel. That's when you might start to see people feeling the pinch

from rising gas prices and starting to come back on consumer spending and create this deflationary spiral in the United States. So we're not close to $100 yet, but we are creeping up $80, up 13% in the past five days. And finally, one thing to keep an eye on when it comes to how this war is going to progress is the asymmetry of cost between air defense and air attacking. And right now, current burn rates, it heavily is favoring the Iranian regime. It's not heavily favoring the defense systems because just the dollar cost difference is so large. Yeah, they say it's like shooting down an e-bike with a Ferrari for every $1 Iran spent on drones. These low cost of head drones. The UAE spent roughly $20 to $28 shooting them down. That's according to Kelly Greco,

who's a senior fellow at the Stimson Center. Bloomberg reported yesterday that Qatar and the UAE are urging the U.S. to ramp this down because they are rapidly running out of interceptors to shoot down these drones and missiles coming from Iran. Now, UAE and Qatar both denied that report and said, we have plenty of interceptors. This is not a supply issue. We are not running out. But there have been multiple reports that, yes, indeed, these interceptors are dwindling in supply and could run out at current rates by the end of the week. So you're seeing this race against time between the U.S. and Israel trying to destroy the missile launchers within Iran before the interceptors run out in the UAE, Qatar, and around the Gulf. Okay, moving on, call it the Swifties

revenge. Yesterday, a landmark antitrust trial began pitting Live Nation against the government, which calls the concert giant an illegal monopoly and wants to break it up. The Department of Justice, along with dozens of states, sued Live Nation in 2024 on the heels of the Taylor Swift eras toward debacle in which fans who tried to buy tickets were met with website meltdowns and absurdly high prices of more than $1,000. For critics of Live Nation, it was a crystal clear example of how its dominance over the live entertainment industry has stifled competition and harms consumers. The U.S. government, if it gets its way, wants to split up Live Nation and Ticketmaster,

which merged in 2010 and brought together the largest concert promoter with the largest ticketing service. The DOJ argues that Live Nation leverages its market power to bully venues into signing exclusive agreements with Ticketmaster, and if they don't agree, they steer major artists from holding shows at those venues. In response, Live Nation says that the government does not have any evidence at pressures venues into signing Ticketmaster deals. And furthermore, it faces far more competition than the DOJ describes. So, Toby, I don't think it's a stretch to say that Live Nation has already lost in the court of public opinion, but whether it loses in an antitrust court is another matter entirely.

Right. Let's dive into the DOJ's claim here a little bit deeper and get into the numbers. The DOJ says that Live Nation controls 65% of the concert promotion market, 87% of the concert ticketing market. That goes along with operating 265 venues. They manage 400 artists. So the DOJ is calling that mutually reinforcing monopolies. Live Nation's defense is, hey, you're actually excluding sporting event ticketing, which encompasses a lot of venues as well.

So our true market share is closer to 40%. If we go back in the history of this merger, the DOJ did allow it back in 2010 by saying, hey, you can't tie your services together. You can't retaliate against venues, switching, ticketing providers. You've now done both those things, which is why we're coming out through you. And one specific example that's going to come up, at least in the first days of this trial, the government is going to present this example as a way of Ticketmaster and Live Nation colluding concerns the Barclays Center contract.

So the Barclays Center is down in Brooklyn. That's where the Brooklyn Nets play. And in 2021, Barclays switched from Ticketmaster to Seekek as their exclusive ticketing service. And then, according to the government, and Seekek, what happened was that Live Nation, which owns Ticketmaster, it steered concerts away from the Barclay Center because they switched away from Ticketmaster and said, oh, you want Addison Ray? No, you can't have it because you switch from Ticketmaster to Seekkeek. I just made that up, but that is an artist that I enjoy. Addison Ray top of mine. So, yeah, I will steer these major artists away from the Barclay Center because you don't have Ticketmaster anymore.

And so that is one example, one instance of how this antitrust, how this illegal monopoly came to the fore. And so this Barclay Center example will be atop of mind, at least in the first few days. And you mentioned the fact that they've already lost in the Court of Public Opinion. Ticketmaster and Live Nation are not popular amongst fans because of the Tatters Swift meltdown, because of all these reasons that they feel like they're driving up the price of tickets, but also the venue, the independent venue business world is very much against this big conglomerate. Stephen Parker, who represents the National Independent Venue Association, said 64% of independent venues reported being unprofitable in at 2024. The idea is that they're not competing at all with Ticketmaster.

They're actually barely surviving. So when it comes to looking at the competitive landscape, one player is clearly eating a lot of the pie here while the rest are just surviving off crumbs. We'll be a very interesting witness list too because basically everybody in the live event industry is going to testify NBA executives, Dallas Cowboys, executive arena operators, and one Kid Rock who's been in the news a lot more than I would have expected Kid Rock to be in in 2026. He is very anti-ticketmaster live nation tie up and he's going to be test. alongside all those other executives. Moving on, after Paramount beat out Netflix for Warner Brothers Discovery, it's trying to figure out what to do with its new $110 billion prize. While the deal is expected to close in the third quarter and still needs to be approved

by regulators, David Ellison is sketching out his vision for the combined entity. Yesterday, he introduced its new streaming service, Paramount Bio Plus Max. No, just kidding, that's not what it's called, but Paramount Plus and HBO Max will merge into a single platform with Ellison assuring shareholders that the HBO brand will remain intact. The combined platform will have over 200 million subscribers and will power a company that expects revenue of $69 billion. Crucially, Ellison says there are no plans to reduce the actual output, which has been a key fear from the industry. And in fact, he publicly committed to releasing 15 films per studio per year, though there's no word on how many of them will be Minecraft

movie sequels. Ellison was also already trying to straddle the line between assuring investors that Paramount made the correct move without appearing overconfident in raising the hackles of regulators. For instance, he is selling the Paramount B.O. Plus Mac service as a pro competition because it challenges Netflix in the streaming world. Neil Paramount is trying to say all the right things, but there's still a waste to go before this thing gets the sign off from regulators. What an odyssey this has been for HBO in the streaming world. days back to 2010 when Time Warner, its parent company, launched HBO Go.

Four years later, HBO Now came along. AT&T then bought Time Warner in 2018, launched HBO Max in 2020. Three years later, Warner Media merged with Discovery after being divested from AT&T, and the new CEO, David Zaslav, said, okay, I don't like HBO Max anymore. Let's just make it Max. That drew a huge backlash as well. And then last year, they reversed it back to HBO Max. So this has been an absolute journey for HBO.

I think a lot of fans of HBO and those who want it to stay independent and perhaps keep its name will be maybe heartened by David Ellison saying we want, we know how important the HBO brand is. We are going to protect it. And whatever this larger streaming service is called, it'll be a very prominent subbrand within it and won't be diluted by whatever else Paramount is bringing to the table. I think it's very funny how David Ellison is on this call with investors yesterday and saying, yeah, this is going to compete with Netflix.

It's going to be this big 200 million plus subscriber base that we can go toe to toe to with Netflix. But also, you have regulators listening to that and going, oh, if you're so big, then why should we allow you to combine at all? So I think he is trying to play both sides of the fiddle here. I don't even know if that's a saying at all. But strout of the line between appearing confident and not saying that this is actually going to reach a scale that would attract the interest of regulators.

I do also just want to talk about how expensive this deal is just in the history of leverage of buyouts. Netflix, when they were trying to, you know, kind of solely this deal said that this is the largest proposed leverage buyout in history. 7x is the amount of debt to the ratio between the debt to the revenue that the proposed merger would create, which is a lot of debt. And some people have been drawing comparisons to the fact that last time that private equity or any of these leverage buyouts happened,

thinking back to something like KKR buying out Toys R Us in 2005, that had a similar leverage debt ratio. That ended up in bankruptcy losing 33,000 workers. If you look at the combined entity, Warner Bros. Discovery has 35,000 employees. Paramount has about 18,000. Usually, when you take on this much debt, it does lead to layoffs, which is something that David Ellison is trying to stay away from, but others in the industry are saying, like, this is the most likely scenario here is that people are going to lose their jobs. Yeah, but did Toys R Us have Minecraft? Probably. They actually

had something along those lines. Yeah, regulators, this is not across the finish line yet. Looks like it'll get a pretty easy pass in Washington, but state attorneys general, especially in California, can challenge the deal on antitrust grounds. They can sue to stop the merger, and that could potentially happen. I know we've been focusing on streaming,

but I think regulators are going to pay more attention in the monopoly space to the combination of the two movie studios, Paramount and Warner Brothers, because right now there are only five major movie studios. That would be combining two of them to just make four. And there are grounds for antitrust action on this front because back in 2022, the Justice Department successfully blocked Penguin Random House from buying Simon and Schuster on the same grounds that you would argue this combination would lead to, which is that there's fewer buyers now for creatives.

Back then in 2022, the DOJ said that. Well, if Penguin Random House combines with Simon and Schuster, then if I'm an author, I have fewer potential buyers, and that leads to my lower compensation. You could say the same thing for directors and writers here if two of the five movie studios do combine. So it looks like this is not across the finish line. I know they want to sign the deal by Q3, and we'll see whatever happens with this new streaming service, whatever it's going to be called. All right, we're going to take a quick break and come back with Toby's trends right after this. It's time to refresh your yard during spring backyard days at the home. Home Depot. Get low prices guaranteed on propane grills starting at $179, like the next grill

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seen its stock tumbled 75% over the past year. It tried and failed to launch French fries and it's gone from being the future of lunch to a poster child of the fall of a very millennial point of time. A long spiral I want to get introspective about on today's edition of Toby's trends.

Last week, Sweet Green reported earnings that set the stock into the bitter red, reporting a same store sales drop of 7.9% last year. Financially, Sweet Green operates on a knife's edge with a complex supply chain full of organic ingredients. But beyond the bottom line, Sweet Green's demise also reflects a decline of a very specific breed of millennial optimism. The Atlantic wrote an article titled How Sweet Green became Millennial Cringe, where author Ellen Cushing notes that the chain was achily of its era, an era where Asper

and health and productivity became symbolized by a $15 bowl of salad. Cushing calls it the perfect fuel for grinning strivers of the 2010s, where eating your desk lunch at a WeWork accompanied by the soundtrack of Hamilton was the norm. Yet, culture changes. Hamilton is cringe. WeWork is bankrupt and Sweet Green's moment seems to have passed. Neil, younger generations rarely look kindly upon their immediate predecessors, but the relentless march of time has been especially unkind to millennials that love sweet green, maybe even more so than the stock market has. The edible embodiment of the 2010s has gone stale. I feel personally attacked as a gritting striver who ate many harvest bowls in a we work in 2018.

But it does seem like that era is ancient history. The bigger question is, did sweet green change or did we change? The answer is probably both. Yes, millennial cringe is on its way up. At the same time, Sweet Green has, by all accounts, dipped in quality. And its CEO even predicted this back in a podcast in 2023. Jonathan Neiman said most food companies, as they get bigger, they typically get worse. Scale kills the product.

And at the same time, people are complaining that Sweet Green has dipped in quality. Its prices have surged back in 2014. A kale Caesar with chicken was, this is crazy. I can't even believe this. $8.85. This week in certain locations, it is nearly $15.14.75. That's $2 higher than $3.000. broader inflation. So at the same time, Sweet Green has a dipping quality. It's at a huge price

spike. People don't feel like they're getting value. And at the same time, maybe there's something to this whole grinning striver, millennial cringe being on the way out and people just aren't necessarily drawn to this product anymore. Yeah, they are throwing everything at the wall to try to recapture some of that magic. They dropped seed oils, which was kind of part of the Maha movement wellness trend that's been coming to the restaurant space right now. They added protein plates because it, when in doubt, just put protein in everything. That seems to be the strategy right now. They've also talked a big game about robot kitchens in automating the process of building your $15 sad desk lunch. None of that necessarily worked. They just launched

wraps the other week. So they really are trying everything right now. But the fact that it's no longer 2010, the fact that some people just don't really like salads, no one ever really like salads that much was probably reduced the size of their total addressable. are going to come after you for that. Well, I'm just saying that if you want to be a broad appeal chain, salads are harder to sell than maybe cheeseburgers are. They were really big in pioneering online ordering. They were early to that.

That's why you saw so many people munching down on salads at their Wiiworks. And they really were just a millennial aspiration brand. So yes, have wheat chains, has sweet green chains? Everything has changed and Sweet Green is worse off for it. Now let's sprint to the finish with some final headlines. Apple unveiled its cheapest iPhone in years yesterday to kick off the wave of product releases it has coming this week. Now, a cheap iPhone is sort of an oxymoron. The 17E will still run you at least $599, but Apple thinks it will be popular, especially in emerging markets like India, where price point matters more than camera quality or screen size. If a cheaper iPhone doesn't tickle your fancy, Apple also unveiled a faster version of its iPad Air.

iPads have been hot lately selling a well through the holidays, and now you have a faster, skinnier version that you'll still probably end up leaving in the seatback pocket of an airplane. Neil, this was day one of Apple's big product push, and it's off to a decent start. Yeah, the most exciting thing for me is this new soft pink color for the iPhone. It comes in black, white, and then something called soft pink, and I think it looks nice. I think a lot, the reaction to this was generally positive, because there's a lot of cool stuff packed into this iPhone E,

17E that doesn't cost a whole lot, at least relative to other iPhones. You can get Apple intelligence and pretty high quality tech that's stuffed in there. The other thing is the iPod. Yeah, I did not know this, but the iPad lineup was a very strong seller in the holidays. It generated $8.6 billion in the December quarter up 6.3% from a year earlier, and half of iPad buyers were new to the product. So they're getting new people into the iPad ecosystem. Now, I have to say iPad people freak me out. Like, it's so crazy when I walk into somebody's house, they're on their couch, and they're just like going to town on their iPad because that is a complex thing for me. I can't wrap my mind around it. I can barely get through my phone, but there are some people

who are absolutely devoted iPad people. I am getting the iPad itch lately. I don't know why. I think it was because I was flying home this weekend, and this guy was reading a magazine on his iPad, and it was beautiful, and it was tactile. He was turning the pages, and I don't need an iPad, but I kind of want. one now. So maybe I am becoming, you know, the Apple fanboy that many have accused me of again, but the iPad is calling me right now. All right. The year is 2026 and Michael Jordan can't stop three-peating. The basketball legend who won back-to-back-to-back titles on two different occasions with the Bulls has done it again this time in an entirely different sport, NASCAR. After a victory on Sunday, Tyler Reddick, who drives for Jordan's team 23XI Racing,

won the first three races of this season, Daytona, Atlanta, and Austin, becoming the first driver in NASCAR history to accomplish the feat. Of the bar, Jordan set, Reddick said, yeah, he reminded me earlier this week that he does things in threes. Meanwhile, Jordan Heep prays on the team and his co-owner, Danny Hemelin, saying, look, I just put up the money. He knows his place, which is why I was kind of digging through NASCAR's subreddit, and people are saying that Jordan is succeeding in NASCAR while maybe failing at his other executive position. that he's had in the NBA with the Charlotte Bobcats, which became the Charlotte Hornets. And people were positing that in most cases, goats in their own sports don't turn into good execs in their own sport

because in their mind, the only way that they can be perfect or to hold people to the standards as if they are on the court themselves, it's why people are pointing to Tom Brady or Payton Manning coming into broadcasting instead of going into coaching because they just have this insane sense of perfection that doesn't necessarily translate well into managing a team, which is why when you come to NASCAR, Michael Jordan knows his place.

Like, he was never a NASCAR driver, so he does put up the money. He brings in the sponsorship dollars. He does the things that you need an owner to do without maybe meddling in the day-to-day operations of the team. That is kind of why people are saying he's off to a very hot start. Also, he's just got dang good drivers. It's been a great few days for people named Michael Jordan in general because the actor Michael B. Jordan was a surprise winner at the Actor Awards on Sunday night. He brought home best actor for his role in sinners, which is a huge surprise and certainly shakes up the Oscar race coming up in a few weeks because Timothy Chalomey was kind of the odds on favorite by far to win best actor for Marty Supreme. But now after this one, Michael B. Jordan

is making a strong case of his own. Okay, that is all the time we have. Thanks for starting your morning with us and have a wonderful Tuesday. It's that time of the month again. Trivia. We are hosting our next MBD Trivia night in New York one week from today. next Tuesday, March 10th, and we'd love to see you there. Head to the link in the show description to sign up and come meet us in the flesh. If you'd like to reach us, send an email to Morning Brew Daily at MorningBrew.com or DM us on Instagram at Envy Daily Show. Let's roll the credits.

And, hey, yo, some people got some promotions. Emily Milliron is our supervising producer. Raymond Liu is our senior producer. Our producer is Olivia Graham and our associate producer is Olivia Lake. Hair and makeup has the same title. Devin Emery is our president and our shows a production of Morning Brew. Great. So Daniel, let's run it back tomorrow. Yamava Resort and Casino at San Manuel is California's number one entertainment destination for today's superstars.

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