Morning Brew Daily - Is Election Anxiety Slowing the Economy? & Gold Keeps On Shining

Episode Date: October 25, 2024

Episode 439: Neal and Toby dive into why election anxiety might be causing a reluctance for the American consumer and how it’s hurting businesses. Then, Keurig just bought a majority stake in Ghost energy drink for over $1B, which signals the growing category for caffeinated drinks. Next, Gold reaches another all-time high – will it ever slow down? Also, Philip Morris is the week’s Stock of the Week, while Polymarket is the Dog of the Week. Lastly, Tesla’s big day, Yum Brands pulls back on onions, a sprinter dies at 108, World Series’ tickets, and Tapestry blocked.  00:00 - American Airlines tackles ‘gate lice’ 3:15 - Too stressed to shop? 7:00 - Ghost energy drink cashes in 10:30 - Gold shines bright 16:30 - Stock of the Week: Philip Morris 19:05 - Dog of the Week: Polymarket 12:00 - Sprint to the finish! Subscribe to Morning Brew Daily for more of the news you need to start your day. Share the show with a friend, and leave us a review on your favorite podcast app. Find your fit at bonobos.com and use code BREW20 for 20% off.  Get your Morning Brew Daily T-Shirt HERE: https://shop.morningbrew.com/products/morning-brew-radio-t-shirt?_pos=1&_sid=6b0bc409d&_ss=r&variant=45353879044316  Listen to Morning Brew Daily Here: https://link.chtbl.com/MBD Watch Morning Brew Daily Here: https://www.youtube.com/@MorningBrewDailyShow Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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Good morning, Brew Daily Show. I'm Neil Fryman. And I'm Toby Howell. Today, want to build the next billion dollar brand, consider making an energy drink. Then the hot new asset class attracting the eyes of the world's government is also one of the most ancient.

It's Friday, October 25th. Let's ride. If you're heading to the airport to travel to any late fall weddings this year, I hope you don't run into any gate lice. No, your hair isn't in danger of influence. infestation, gate lights is a term for people who linger around boarding areas in an attempt to get on the plane before their group or zone is called, and airlines are beginning to crack

down. American Airlines is testing a new system to disincentivize any over-exuberant borders. If you try to scan your boarding pass before it's your turn, an alert will blare out, then everyone will point in laugh at you. No, you'll just be sent back to wait until your group is actually called. Neil, is this over the top or was it time gate lice were dealt with properly? I had no idea that this didn't happen already. I was someone who always follows the rules because I thought if I boarded in a different zone than I was.

And I'm usually zone 14 somewhere in that about. I thought, yeah, there would be a huge police presence and everyone would laugh and I'd be shamed in the corner. But I know I've been to the airport with you. You just wait out in the terminal until you want to be the last person on the plane. You are the opposite of gate lies. I want to be the last one. Usually I travel pretty light with just a backpack, so I'm not too concerned with overhead bin space.

But I hate waiting on a plane. Like, I'm going to be on the plane for hours. I'd rather be in the wide open expanse to the terminal. So I think it says a lot about people, their boarding habits. But now American Airlines said, we know exactly what you're doing and we're starting to crack down. Now a word from our sponsor, Banobos. Okay, I know I've been saying this every day since this sponsorship started.

But Neil, you are looking positively, Deben. there today. Well, it's not every day. I get to wear a suit into work, so I'm taking full advantage of it. I mean, I'm running out of adjectives, but for all you listening, Neil is rocking a perfectly tailored gray suit that has a nice shape and drape and gives off an understated, yet ever so stylish five. And you're not looking too shabby yourself, Toby. And I'm not feeling too shabby either. These suits are comfortable. It's got the stretch. It's got the breathability. I might do the New York City Marathon in this thing. See, that's the bonobos effect right there. It's clothes, get you looking your best, so you feel your best. Or, in Toby's case, you feel like

you can run a marathon in dress shoes. Don't set me with a good time. To find your fit, head to your nearest bonobo store, or go to bonobos.com and use code brew 20 for 20% off. Not loving your AT&T or T Mobile Bill. Yeah, we've been hearing that a lot. Good news. Bring your AT&T or T Mobile bill to Verizon and we'll give you a better deal. So get away from that unfortunate phone bill and get to Verizon. Run, ride, canoe. Whatever it takes, we'll be. here. Bring your AT&T or T mobile bill to a Verizon store today and we'll give you a better deal on the best network. A better deal.

No surprises. That's Verizon. Best network based on route metrics, best overall mobile network from the U.S. second half 2025. All rights reserved. It must provide a recent consumer mobile bill. The name of the person reguming me the deal. Additional terms, conditions, and restrictions apply. Okay, tell me if this sounds familiar. I really want to buy it, but I think I'll just wait until after

the election. Yeah? Well, this attitude is pretty typical ahead of big presidential votes every four years and the week's leading up to election day, American consumers tend to pull back on purchases, especially on those big ticket items, until the political uncertainty is over. We are already seeing that play out this fall from real estate brokers to car dealerships. Businesses say they've seen potential buyers hesitate on signing the dotted line until they know who's going to be in the White House.

It makes sense. Presidential elections often lead to big changes in things like tax policy, so there's comfort in the wait and see approach. World pool is a perfect example. of this on the appliance maker's earnings call this week, the CEO said that the upcoming election has knocked its sales and he's desperate for the votes to be counted so that people would start buying washing machines again. Exacts blamed much of the sales lump on all the negativity from political ads that people get depressed about the future. Ruralpool's CFO said, you're either hearing about how bad off you are now or how bad off you're going to be. Neither one of those gets you really excited to redo your mud room. No. So if you look at

polling, it does show that consumers do pull back in the weeks leading up to the election. Ipsos found that half of consumers are planning to spend less and save more in the run-up to election day. Cox Automotive surveyed consumers in June, 60% said that the election would affect their next vehicle purchase, and 78% said it would influence other big ticket purchases. so those ones that you may finance or are really big life events, you do tend to hold off on those until the election. I'm wondering if anyone listening to this has kind of experienced that before. And it's not just consumers either.

It's businesses as well. You're seeing this manifest in a bunch of industries from construction to manufacturing. A lot of these producers, a lot of these builders are just pausing orders and pausing big projects right now until they get some clarity around how the White House is going to shake out, shake out almost a third of Americans tasked with financial decisions. So think about your CFOs. They've postponed, canceled, or stripped down near and long-term investment plans this year. The way I think about it in my mind is when I graduated college, I lived in Maine for a little bit. And I knew it wasn't going to be a long-term thing. So I didn't want to really invest in my room,

didn't want to decorate. So that manifested in me sleeping on a mattress on the ground for six months. I feel like that's what businesses are doing right now. They are pausing investment. they are sleeping on a mattress on the ground until they can figure out, am I going to, what is the long-term forecast here? So I think people even haven't built their bed frames at this point. One industry where you really see this play out is in housing and real estate. There was this very fascinating analysis of housing sales data in Los Angeles, Manhattan, in Miami in the last 20 years.

So in even years, sales dipped in the second half of the year. And in odd years, they rebounded. and even years are those presidential election years. In even years, election years, sales were down 5.5% in Los Angeles, 2.5% in Manhattan, and 2.6% in Miami. And then in odd years, sales were up 4.6% in L.A., 8.5% in Manhattan, and 10.2% in Miami. So you really see that stark rebound.

And that's why this is probably not going to be a long-term drag on the economy, because right after election day, you're going to see a pop back up as people start to spend. So if you're trying to see this in the actual economic data, you don't. Retail spending is still quite strong, according to government figures, and it's expected to be. So it's just a short-term blip that happens once every four years. If you talk to your local small business owner, they're probably saying, yeah, we see this happen every four years. We can't wait until November 5th is over and people start spending again. Hope you are ready for your K-cups to pack even more of a punch in the morning,

because Kyrig Dr. Pepper, the coffee maker and beverage conglomerate, just acquired the energy drink brand Ghost for more than $1 billion. Ghost is one of the many brightly colored cans, the sleep deprived might encounter when perusing the energy drink section at your local gas station. It separated itself from peers in a crowded segment by inking partnerships with candy brands like Sour Patch Kids and Oreos, attracting younger customers in the process. And it's that appeal that caught the eye of Kureg.

Its CEO Tim Koffer said on an earnings call yesterday that Ghost appeals to GenZenials, which is quite literally the first time I have ever heard that phrase. Despite its CEO's odd perception of the use, Gyrig landed themselves a hot commodity. Ghost net sales have quadrupled over the past three years, as it has ridden in an absolute boom and energy drink popularity. I think it's Gen Zennials. No, I'm joking.

Gen Zennials. But I was wondering how that was pronounced. It is an all-out land grab right now for these large consumer giants, like Coca-Cola, Pepsi, Kierig, Dr. Pepper, to get their tentacles, plant their flag in growing energy drinks, because this is one of the biggest growth sectors in this entire sector. Coca-Cola is Monster's biggest shareholder. Pepsi invested $550 million for an 8.5% stake in Celsius.

Curie, Dr. Pepper, this was not its first energy drink investment either. It owns a 30% stake in Nutrable, which makes C4 energy. So whenever, this is a classic playbook, whenever you see a. growing sub-industry, like energy drinks or anything that's become the hot, new food, or beverage trend, all of these giants just go in and make investments so they can be on the ball. What I do find interesting, though, is that energy drinks are obviously exploding in popularity, but typically it's been more recently cleaner and healthier energy drinks.

I mean, Celsius is the one that comes to mind. But Ghost is kind of in the opposite direction of that. Remember, technically, they have no added sugar, like low calories, but the way the drinks are branded. It literally has our Sour Patch Kids branded all over it. So they're not trying to ride the health wave as much, but clearly they have found a market like their sales are doing great.

But you can go to any grocery store aisle right now and find plenty of, you know, sparkling energy drinks with infused lions made and adaptogenic mushrooms. Ghost is certainly not that trend, but there is that trend that is out there as well. So if you're Red Bull or a monster or a Celsius, are you

looking over your shoulder? These giants are definitely losing market share. I mean, Red Bull's market share in the U.S. fell below 36% last year for more than 39% two years earlier. Monsters slid from 42% to 35% over the same period. So you have a lot of upstarts coming at these, you know, I don't want to say legacy energy drink companies that have dominated the market for decades. But if I'm coffee too, that is what I'm really looking over my shoulder. If I'm the Starbucks CEO, I'm saying, wait a second, there are so many energy or caffeine products out there at this point that maybe coffee is going to start phasing out

and these healthier or not so healthy energy drink brands are stepping in. So that's another one that I think is looking over their shoulder. Gold, it is so back, Neil. Over the past year, its price is up 38% to over $2,700 per Troy ounce, touching an all-time high as recently as a Wednesday of this week. And humanity's favorite medal is everywhere you look these days. You can find gold bars while wandering the giant aisles of Costco. Korean convenience store chains are selling fingernail-sized pieces like hotcakes. And central banks around the world are snapping up gold as the increasingly uncertain world pushes countries towards the safety of the world's original reserve currency.

This turn towards goal, especially from the higher echelons of the finance world, is not something you see too often. Warren Buffett famously hates the asset class because it produces no income and is favored by those who fear other assets and believe that fear will spread, according to him. But everyone from Costco shoppers to central banks are trusting the ancient asset to maintain its value as geopolitical instability and uncertainty increases. Gold has got its shine back, Neil. It does. And what's fascinating is that the rise in gold has been decoupled from its traditional marker, traditional things that have influenced this price, like interest rates, inflation, and the dollar.

where gold has typically risen in price when interest rates have come down and yields are low, but yields are still high. And we've just had one or two Fed rate cuts. So interest rates are still high. Gold is still soaring. It also usually goes higher when the dollar is weaker and there's just a gloomy economic outlook for the United States. But that also isn't true. So you've seen it been break up with its traditional influencers, usually with there's a geopolitical,

drama going on. It spikes, but then it comes back down. But if you look at the gold price jar, you should check this out. It's pretty linear from the past two to three years. So people are wondering, like, what is going on? It seems like this is a more sustained trend than anything you've seen in the past. I think a big pivotal moment was Russia's invasion of Ukraine and then the subsequent crackdown on Russian assets because it demonstrated to a lot of these central banks across the world that typically they kept their reserves in stuff like American treasuries or supposedly safe Western currencies. But when they started passing down sanctions on Russia, it showed that those were not safe

by any means. So it's prompted this renewed interest in gold. According to the economists, 11% of reserves of central banks around the world consisted of gold last year. That is up from just 6% in 2008. It's a little bit down from the height of 40% back in the 1970s. when gold was the de facto reserve currency. So I do think that moment there caused a lot of countries

to realize that maybe our U.S. treasuries are not as safe and sound as we thought, especially since we saw what just happened with Russia and after they had invaded Ukraine. And then it's not just, you know, happening in, you know, central governments around the world. It feels like gold is having also a cultural moment among retail investors or just in fashion

and generally mentioned that Costco is selling $200 million dollars worth of gold every single month. And that is going to just regular folks who are buying gold watches in the luxury watch market. They're selling more yellow gold than they ever have. Zuck is wearing gold chain. So it's been a part of the moment that we're in right now for whatever reason. Up next, take a sip of coffee and sit tight because we have Stock of the Week, Dogla Week,

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When you want savings, not surprises. It matters where you stay. Hilton for the stay. It is Friday, which means it's time for Stock of the Week, Dog of the Week, the segment where Toby and I pick one stock that's having a beautiful day and another that still hasn't found what it's looking for. My stock of the week is Philip Morris International, whose shares pot more than 10% this week to reach a record high. Philip Morris has historically been known for its cigarette brands like Marlboro, but now its business is buzzing thanks to a newer product, Zinn. Zin's oral nicotine pouches have been growing in popularity for more than a year,

But last quarter, they truly reached the upper deck. Shipments of Zincans in the U.S. grew more than 41% in Q3 from the same period a year before, driving the bulk of Philip Morris's overall sales. The wildest part, we probably haven't even reached peak Zinn. The brand's growth has been constrained by supply shortages that are only now being smoothed over, and there's plenty of room to run overseas. Total nicotine pouch volume outside of the U.S. soared nearly 70% last quarter with Zin becoming available in 30.

different markets. Toby, for the last 10 years, Philip Morris was seen as this corporate dinosaur making a product, cigarettes that had been consigned to the ashtray of history. Now, thanks to Zinn, it's blowing past all-time highs. Yeah, I mean, I urge you all to pull up the stock chart because literally from- I'm not going to say urge you all to get the Gake of Zint. To start Zinn. No, I urge you all to pull up the stock chart because you're right. From 2013 to 2023, nothing really happened because who wanted to invest in a maker of cigarettes? Because that is not a growth market. It paid a nice dividend, so it did see a little bit of volume, but you're right, it was kind of relegated to the periphery. What I do find interesting, too, is that Philip Morris was actually broken into two

separate companies back in 2008. Philip Morris kept its name, and they also kept the international cigarettes business, which turned out to be a good call because that actually is still growing. But then Altria was the other spinoff from this. They kept the U.S. cigarette unit, and they have really struggled so far. They are way below their all-time high in 2017. And we've seen the the two companies just completely diverge because Altria kind of went down the Jewel route. Oh, yeah. But Philip Morris went down the Zinn route, and right now Zinn has been the winner by a large margin. Altria took a 35% stake in Jewel and lost pretty much all of it.

And that is honestly being considered one of the worst corporate investments in history. Now, Philip Morris is doing well because they've done this very graceful pivot to this IQOS heated tobacco device and Zinn, which I think has really come out of nowhere. They're spending $600 million on a Zinn factory in Colorado. And again, just like gold, Zins become a part of the culture on Monday night. Football Baker Mayfield, the quarterback of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers was seen on the sidelines popping a Zinn. I don't know the exact term for it. But like in the third quarter of the game, and everyone was talking about it.

So it's kind of like Keith Hernandez smoking a cigarette in the duckout in the 1980s. My dog of the week is Polymarket. The crypto-powered prediction market has been a key narrative driver in this year's presidential election. Frequently cited as a more up-to-date look at the sentiment of voters who were putting actual money on the line, there has been a significant amount of scrutiny recently around the platform over the presence of a big spender potentially skewing its probabilities. Right now, Polly Market is showing Donald Trump with a 63 to 36% advantage over Kamala Harris, and that significant gap larger than most national polls or other prediction market show,

has been traced back to four accounts controlled by one person who's not even American. The Polymarket Whale is a French person with extensive trading experience in financial services background, the company said. In total, the whale has collectively spent over $28 million betting on Trump to win the 2024 presidential election. Now, Polymarket insists that the trader wasn't trying to juice the odds in Trump's favor, but they did ask them to chill with making new accounts. Still, a tough look for a platform that supposedly offers a more accurate snapshot of election results to have a single foreign player with such an outsized financial impact. Right. Well, I mean, they're probably relieved that it's a foreign player because this is not allowed in the United States.

So that's what sparked this investigation. They saw these four accounts doing some weird trading. And they're like, well, let's investigate because we hope this is not happening from a U.S. account because that is not allowed. Polymarket is not allowed for U.S. users. So they're probably like, okay, I'm glad it's a French dude. but the fact that he's spending tens of millions of dollars on this election is sure to raise concerns that this market is being manipulated. Prediction markets had been seen as a pretty fascinating and reliable snapshot of where public sentiment stands as opposed to polls.

So the fact that, you know, they found this huge whale manipulating four different accounts and doing interesting trades is certainly going to prompt some introspection, maybe more scrutiny on prediction markets, polymarket specifically. And it has been a bit of a blow to. maybe people who do favor Trump. Elon Musk has been parading Polly Market around as more accurate than the polls because that's his line of thinking that there's actual money on the line. Therefore, they are more accurate than the polls. Polymarket, to its credit, does say that prediction markets are not opinion polls. They only track the odds of a candidate's victory, as implied by the people

putting money on the platform. They aren't equivalent to polls. So they do try to quell maybe people are trying to equivocate the two. But still, I do think Polly Market did become a really big barometer in this election. And if you have a whale spending $28 million, you start to, in the back of your mind, think, okay, maybe it isn't quite as accurate. Or maybe it is accurate. Like, you don't know. It is just implied by the bets on the platform.

But yeah, so they've been going through a little bit of this negative PR cycle. But I don't think predatory markets are going anywhere anytime soon because they have had their moment this election. All right, Toby, let's sprint to the finish with some final news stories to close out the show, you can go first. All right, thank you. Tesla just had its best single day in the market in over a decade. Shares closed up over 20% yesterday for their biggest jump since 2013. The extra $150 billion in market value comes from renewed optimism that Elon actually does care about its core business of selling electric cars. To go along with solid cyber truck sales numbers, Elon forecasted

a 20 to 30% jump in sales next year with a promise to launch that all-important affordable in the first half of 2025. It was a huge day for Tesla. It was a crazy good day for Tesla. It was a crazy good day for Elon Musk, who owns a lot of Tesla. He added $33.5 billion to his net worth. And as Bloomberg congressional reporter Stephen Dennis pointed out, his wealth increased more yesterday than all the political spending on the election

by both parties combined. And he also said it was likely Elon Musk's one day haul would exceed all the spending and all the presidential campaigns. in history. So that just shows you how much money he has and this $1 million giveaway, which apparently has been paused for now, is just absolute chump change for him. Tuesday's report that the onions on McDonald's quarter pounders led to an E. coli outbreak is causing shockwaves across the fast food industry. Yesterday, Yum Brands, the parent company of Taco Bell, Pizza Hut, and KFC, said it was

pulling onions from some of its restaurants, and Burger King announced it was removing onions from 5% of its U.S. restaurants after a view of its supply chain, Both companies said the moves were a proactive measure, and they had not received any indicators of illness from health authorities. Yeah, right now, health authorities, just an update on that E. coli outbreak. Health authorities say that there's been one death in 49 confirmed cases across 10 states at this point. It does look like most of the fast food brands looked at their supply chain. Burger King said this was definitely a precautionary measure. 5% is not a lot of its supply chain.

But you are seeing everyone kind of take stock and make sure that this doesn't kind of infiltrate their supply chains as well. An $8.5 billion luxury merger is on the ropes after the FTC sued to block it. A federal judge nicks the potential merger between Tapestry, the owner of Coach, and Capri, the parent company of Michael Coors. After regulators had concerns that it would make the handbag market less accessible, Tapestry stock jumped 10% after the news, which showed investors weren't so enthused about the idea of folding the struggling Michael Coors brand into the fold. Meanwhile, Capri's fell off the cliff to the tune of a 50% drop.

This was an interesting trial because it was basically a referendum on whether handbags were worthy of antitrust scrutiny. And the judge in this case did assert that handbags, sure, were a very important good that people purchase on a daily basis. And it's important to look at this market and see if it's being too concentrated. The judge wrote downplaying the importance of handbags as not essential. discretionary items that consumers can simply choose not to buy if the price is too high, ignores that handbags are important to many women, not only to express themselves through fashion, but to aid in their daily lives. It's also another big win for FTC chair, Lena Khan, who kind of surprised a lot of people by going after a handbag merger. Baseball fans are about

to feast. The World Series arrives tonight when the New York Yankees face the Los Angeles Dodgers in a mouth-watering matchup. Though they haven't met, in the World Series in 43 years, this is still the 12th time these iconic franchises will square off for the MLB title, the most frequent World Series matchup in history. And with their star power and major media markets in tow, it's a dream scenario for Major League Baseball. At an average of nearly $2,000 for Game 3 at Yankee Stadium, ticket prices are on track to be the most expensive for a World Series ever. It's like heiress tour prices out there right now. I don't know who I'm rooting for this. It's kind of like Darth Vader and the

Empire from Star Wars against Baron Harkening and the House Harkening from Dune. There is only power, only money, no real underdogs in this. Therefore, I guess I'm rooting for Otani because he's got the best hair in the series. Outside of the Autobahn, usually you have to slow down when you hit triple digits. But that's not the way Julia Hawkins, a centenarian sprinter, chose to live her life. Hawkins passed away at the age of 108 this week. But she inspired many by taking up running after she turned. 100 years old. She specialized in the 50 meter dash clocking a 19 second performance at Louisiana

Senior Olympic Games to win gold in her age group, although she was the only competitor. She currently holds world records for the women's 100 meter dash in both the over 100 category and the over 105 division as well. Just an all-around amazing human being, Julia Hawkins. Yeah, it's pretty incredible. I mean, a lot of the world record she did set, frankly, was because no one else could possibly do it, which is an achievement in herself at 105 years of age in 2021. She came the first female track and field athlete in the 105 plus age bracket to clock a time in the 100 meter dash, to even move, to even get across the finish line. She did it in more than a minute and an interview afterwards. She was like, I'm like happy on finish, but I wanted to crack the minute, but still

incredibly impressive and shows that you're never too old. Also, she went to LSU, which has a history of producing amazing track and field athletes, Shikari Richardson, Mando Duplantis. So before there was any of them, there was Julia Hawkins. Let's wrap it up there. Thanks so much for starting your morning with us and have a wonderful Friday and an even better weekend.

For any questions, comments, or feedback on the show, send an email to Morningbrewdaily at morningbrew.com. And please share Morningbrewdaily with your friends, family, and coworkers. If you're thinking, but I have so many, how could I possibly choose which people to share it with? Toby can help you narrow it down. I want you to share the show today with someone who doesn't live in the U.S.

Yes, Morning Brew Daily is U.S. focus, but we see you international listeners out there. So if you have a friend who is living abroad, send them this episode and tell them that you miss them. Okay, let's roll the credits. Emily Milliron is our executive producer. Raymond Liu is our producer. Olivia Graham is our associate producer. Yuchinawa Ogu is our technical director. Billy Minino is on audio. Hair and makeup thinks we should wear suits every day. I don't know.

Devin Emery is our chief content officer and our shows of production of Morning Brough. Great show today, Neil. I wish you all well. Yamava Resort and Casino at San Manuel is California's number one entertainment destination for today's superstars. Catch the Jonas Brothers return to the Yamava Theater stage on April 30th. The powerful vocals of Demi Lovato on May 17th and the signature Southern Country Rock of Eric Church on July 19th. Tickets on sale now at Yamavatheater.com. Only at Yamava Resort and Casino, celebrating its 40th anniversary. U.N. must be 21 to enter.