Morning Brew Daily - Largest Oil Reserve Released in History & Porsche Has Lost its Luster

Episode Date: March 12, 2026

Episode 798: Neal and Ray discuss the release of 400 million barrels of oil reserves, the largest in history as the Strait of Hormuz is near closure. Then, Porsche CEO plans to cut more jobs as it struggles to gain traction in China. Then it’s Neal’s numbers on YouTube surpassing Disney, people are more scared of AI than ICE, and a little known soccer club upsetting European giants.  Learn more at taxact.com/business-returns Subscribe to Morning Brew Daily for more of the news you need to start your day. Share the show with a friend, and leave us a review on your favorite podcast app. Listen to Morning Brew Daily Here:⁠ ⁠⁠https://www.swap.fm/l/mbd-note⁠⁠⁠  Watch Morning Brew Daily Here:⁠ ⁠⁠https://www.youtube.com/@MorningBrewDailyShow⁠ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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And I'm Raymond Lou. Today, a historic release of oil reserves did little to calm the market. Then, Porsche's into the dumps. What can turn around its flailing business? It's Thursday, March 12th. Let's ride. Good morning. Yes, that's producer Ray, you're hearing,

who is stepping out of the control room into the studio to host with me today. For everyone looking for a new hobby this spring, I've got a proposal for you. Make butter while running. It's all the rage. And videos that have racked up, Millions of views online. Content creator Libby Cope and her boyfriend show how it's done.

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it boils down to science. You just need to agitate some cream, but is this something that you would do? I know you like to go on runs every now and then. Of course. It's multitasking. I love exercising. I love making food.

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I would be into. So I encourage people who are interested in this idea. Look it up. There are so many videos, and people are putting out simple recipes that you can make ice cream or butter or whatever you want while on your run. Oh, the cleanup must be a mess. Okay, and now a word from our sponsor, Tax Act. Taxes. Am I right?

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and file for you. Just add to taxact.com slash business dash returns to get started. That's taxac.com slash business dash returns. Facing the biggest oil disruption in history, the Western World is calling in the reinforcements. Yesterday, the International Energy Agency said it will release 400 million barrels from reserve stockpiles its biggest emergency distribution ever. The move is intended to soothe oil prices that have gone haywire over the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which is already causing economic pain all over the globe and spiking gas prices here in the U.S. What is the IEA? It is a group of 32 Western countries and their allies that was set up in the 1970s to confront this exact challenge, a massive energy disruption stemming from the Gulf.

They've tapped their oil stockpiles just a few times before. You can count them on one hand, but nothing compares to 400 million barrels a day. The previous record was 182 million barrels unleashed on the market after Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022. Tapping the oil rainy day fund is a signal that, with the war in Iran, ongoing, there is little belief that the Strait of Hormuz may not open to commercial shipping anytime soon. And the threats only appear to be multiple, applying. Iran has reportedly been laying down 10 mines in the straight, while six more oil tankers have come under fresh attack, some of them being consumed by flames. The release also did little to calm oil prices, which actually gained this morning to touch $100 a barrel yet again.

That is far from their peak near 120 on Monday, but very much elevated from the low 70s before the war. Ray, how much can the reserves actually help with this crisis? I mean, it's going to be a long, long arduous process. I mean, the, the reserve, I think one of the biggest concerns is that once you release the reserve, it's like, how do you fill those reserves up? And that's going to be a problem down the line. So a lot of analysts and economists saying like this is not a sustainable solution. But one thing that we do want to talk about is while the energy markets have focused on the oil supply risks, analysts say that there's also a threat to fertilizer supply chains through the Strait of Hormuz. So other commodities are definitely in risk here. Beyond energy, another risk receiving less attention is potential knock-on effective food prices, fertilizer, as I mentioned, and it could push agricultural costs even higher.

And that's actually a quote from Wolf Research Chief Economist, Stephanie Roth, that was set on Tuesday. Yeah, so basically, the Strait of Hormuz is essentially closed around, is only escalating their attacks. The problem is that, yeah, it's not just oil that's being essentially trapped on one side. It's not able to go to the rest of the world. There are a ton of fertilizer inputs. One of them that people have pointing to is urea, roughly one third of the world's traded urea, which is the dominant form of nitrogen fertilizer. That passes through the straight-off Hormuz.

And so you're seeing spiking fertilizer prices. Urea prices are up 35 percent since the war began. But you just go down the line. Every commodity actually has a huge presence in the Gulf because what is there is cheap energy. So that's where a lot of industrial processes that make fertilizer, sulfur, aluminum, Urea have located because there's just abundant energy there with the oil and gas that we mentioned. Right now, that is all trapped. It couldn't come at a worse time, too, because farmers all over the globe, especially in lower

income countries, rely on this fertilizer to make their crops productive. And right now is the spring planting season, so they need that fertilizer. Right now, it is being trapped. Prices are spiking. And so agricultural experts are worried about the impact of food prices down the line. Yeah, you're seeing this cascading effect. I just want to run through some of the numbers. There's aluminum prices jumped to the highest level in almost four years on Monday.

Ethanol jumped about 10% from the start of the war through the end of trading on Monday. Roughly one third of the world's traded Uriah been normally passes through the Strait of Ormoos, which you said. And those prices have risen as much as 35% since the war began. So you're kind of seeing everyone was kind of focused on oil at first, right? Because that's like the most obvious commodity and the main concern because people like, you know, the gas prices. That's like your first thought. But we're seeing all these other extra commodities being affected as this war goes on, you know, a lot of people are concerned about that. Yeah.

And it does seem to be going on. And maybe the release of the Strategic Reserve was somehow a negative signal to that effect because what these countries are essentially saying by releasing the stockpiles is that, yeah, we don't see a resolution anytime soon. Matthew Zetland, who's an energy reporter on exit, I wonder if one reason why SPR releases, that is the, the, that is the reserve releases don't have a huge immediate price effects is because an SPR release is basically a confirmation that would have her issue is going to be serious and persistent. Gas prices in the United States have risen for the 11th consecutive day on Wednesday. Drivers are now paying 20% more at the pump. It was the national average was below $3 a gallon before the war.

Now it is up to $3.60. Meanwhile, the war has created, kind of divided the world into certain economic. winners and losers so far. It's only been a few weeks, but it's very clear that some nations are reeling from the war. Some are actually benefiting the one area of the world that really is feeling some serious negative impacts, and it could stem to an economic crisis, is Southeast Asia. Countries like India, Thailand, the Philippines and Vietnam have taken some serious steps to curb energy consumption because of spiking oil prices. Yeah, you have a country like Vietnam, where the government is basically asked companies

or call companies to encourage remote working. And this is one of those things where you have an external event. Maybe the start of, like, how it was over here with the pandemic, is maybe opening up this whole new way of working with remote working. And they're basically just trying to cut down the amount of car and transportation and reliance on the oil. Right. Those countries are huge energy importers.

And so their energy prices are spiking. It's not getting through. So that's a huge problem for them. There are some countries that are, that are, benefiting from them. One country that has been benefiting from this war is Russia. The United States actually issued a 30-day waiver for India to buy Russian oil that's already at sea. So Russia is earning money from oil that used to be sanctioned. The price of Russian crude is now trading above the global benchmark. So Vladimir Putin is sitting there in Moscow. Very happy that oil

prices are spiking and that the U.S. is sort of tamping down some sanctions in order to get more Russian oil sold to ease the supply crunch. Other countries that perhaps are benefiting are basically any countries that are major energy exporters, not in the blast radius of the Middle East countries like Canada, Norway, Latin America, Colombia, those countries are probably looking at what's going on and saying, yes, it's horrible, but at the same time, rising oil prices are good for our economy. All right. Well, let's move on. Family dinners at Volkswagen are kind of awkward right now. Europe's biggest automaker saw its operating profit fall 53% year-over-year year, thanks there's no small part to the performance of its problem child, Porsche. Porsche's profits

fell to a whopping 98% as the brand slumps in popularity after a failed push into EVs. The automaker, even though it's part of Volkswagen, trades under its own ticker on the European stock market. Its value has halved since 2022 and was recently dropped from Europe's largest. index. It's a far, far, far drop. Nothing has gone right recently. It's losing ground in China. Its margins are disappearing, and last year it took a $3.1 billion hit on its push into electric cars. Tariffs haven't helped either. Porsche imports every single car it sells in the U.S., meaning it ate roughly $800 million in extra costs. New CEO and former McLaren boss, Michael Leiter, is stealing a page from big tech's playbooks to kick off its turnaround.

plan. He wants to streamline Porsche's management structure to get rid of bloated hierarchies and speed-up decision-making. Good old gas-powered cars are going to be a focus, too. Lighters thinks EVs are kind of too competitive that internal combustion engines, quote, continue to offer potential for the brand. Neil, Porsche is an iconic brand, but that doesn't mean it's immune to competition or the luxuries market distaste for EVs. Can it pull a UE and come back from the brink? Well, if you went into a lab and said, let's invent a... a car company that would be negatively impacted from everything that's going on in the world right now, you'd probably come up with something that looks like Porsche because Porsche has a huge dependency

on China, but in China right now, there is a cutthroat price war. And that is not good for Porsche. Deliveries in China fell 26 percent. People just last year, people are not buying people in China are not buying Porsches anymore. Meanwhile, it was one of the brands that dove full on into EVs. Well, it actually got ahead of consumers there. Meanwhile, it only makes, it, it only makes cars in Germany and it has to import, export those cars into the United States, which is its largest market because rich people here love to buy Porsches. Well, there's been a 15% tariff on car imports from Europe to the United States. So just it's at the vortex of pretty much every sort of geopolitical or business story that's happening right now and everything

is negatively impacting it. Maybe this guy has a turnaround plan, but it could be a big hole to dig out from. Yeah, I want to talk a little bit about the product strategy pivot that actually, it's actually going even more premium. On EVs, the battery electric vehicle market is characterized by intense price competition, which we will not follow for the economic and brand relations, and that's a quote. What's being added instead is models positioned above existing two doors sports cars and the Cayenne SUV. I think a lot of people are kind of wondering, well, at this point, maybe they ought to step back from the premium, but it seems like their strategy they want to go even more premium on that. Is that a smart move? Yeah, I think they are looking at possibly two

paths ahead. Right now, Porsche is maybe in the middle of BMW and Mercedes. Their German peers are below them in terms of pricing, and then you have Ferrari above them. And they're saying they want to be more like Ferrari than BMW and Mercedes because the new CEO wants to prioritize profits over volume. He wants to make fewer cars, but wants to price them at a higher level. But they are moving in that particular direction. They're looking at Ferrari, who's actually making so much money right now, not selling that many cars at all. There's Ferrari users like to personalize their vehicles, and that drives up the sticker price so much. So right now, Porsche is sitting in the messy middle. It hasn't been working for them, and they're trying to move up market. All right,

let's take a quick break, and when we come back, it's Neal's Numbers. Waking up at 4 a.m. is a unique daily experience. Hair and makeup cannot say the same. It's really all about understanding how something impacts your body and pivoting accordingly. And that's something Woop's wearable tech can help with. Woop gives you insight into your sleep, your recovery, the strain you're taking on, and how your daily behavior may influence your overall health. It helps you see patterns that can support better decisions. And by understanding your body, you can adopt behaviors that help you feel and perform at your best every day.

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That's vanguard.com slash audio. All investing is subject to risk Vanguard Marketing Corporation distributor. Welcome to Neal's numbers, the segment where I share three stats in the week's news that will have your friends going, wait, when did you get so smart? For my first number, YouTube is big,

so big in fact that it is now the biggest media company in the world. Last year, the Google-owned video platform, surpass Disney's media business in revenue 62 billion versus 61 billion to take the title. Netflix is a distant third, bringing in $45 billion in annual sales, and legacy media companies aren't even a part of the discussion. YouTube brings in more ad revenue than NBC Paramount Discovery and Disney combined. But lately, YouTube's growth has been fueled by another source, subscriptions.

YouTube has gotten people hooked on services like YouTube TV, YouTube premium, YouTube music, and NFL Sunday ticket, which now account for a major chunk of sales. YouTube TV specifically is on track to soon become the largest pay TV provider in the country with Charter and Comcast in its crosshairs. If YouTube were valued as a standalone business and not a unit of Google, it would be worth between $500 and $560 billion, according to Moffat-Nathanson. The only other media company that's remotely close in value is Netflix worth just over $400 billion. Disney, by comparison, has a market cap of $180 billion. Ray, it's YouTube's world. We're just living in it. I know. I mean, a lot of things.

people spend a lot of time on YouTube. I mean, we often read that. Do you? I do, actually. Sometimes you think about it. And I also have a YouTube subscription because, you know, once you get used to watching something without ads, it's hard to go back. But I do want to mention that how the studio stack up in total revenue, because YouTube's ad dominance doesn't necessarily tell the whole story when you zoom out because Disney's total media revenue, including subscriptions, reaches $60.9 billion. And obviously the analysis excludes Disney's theme Parks business and cruise business is obviously its own giant, but combined, it's, you know, in terms of ad revenue, though, YouTube doesn't, is alone on that.

What's interesting is the Maff and Nathan's an analysis that found that YouTube was the biggest media business in the world, basically said that every other player in the media world is retracting. This is a very tough industry that's facing tons of headwinds. And they said, really the only of everything we cover, the only. asset that will be a major beneficiary of both the structural tailwinds and headwinds facing tech and media companies is YouTube. And perhaps you could also include Netflix in that conversation, but there's only two media companies that have their foot on the gas pedal that are actually making aggressive moves to

grow. Well, Comcast, NBC, Paramount, they're all making more defensive moves to, you know, to keep their position that they've had for, you know, nearly a century. But YouTube is an absolute Goliath and it's only growing. YouTube also said that they paid out $100 billion to create. creators, music companies, and media partners over the course of its existence, which also just highlights its heft. I mean, I'm surprised about the YouTube music portion of it, because I do, I think

most people wouldn't think of streaming audio, I think of Spotify or even Apple Music, but YouTube music, I think is an unknown, like, entity here that's underrated. A lot of people listen to YouTube music. We also know that it's the biggest podcast platform. Yeah, yeah. And podcasts may be a minnow compared to music and video, but it just goes to show that you is kind of dominating across domains. Okay, for my next number, AI is less popular than ICE.

In a new NBC news poll of registered voters, just 26% of respondents said they have a positive feeling about AI compared with 46% who hold negative views. That is a lower rating than immigration and customs enforcement, which has been the subject of widespread protests this winter. In fact, the only topics with a lower net positive rating than AI in the survey were the Democratic Party and Iran. Take this poll with a grain of salt. The sample size was just 1,000 voters. Still, it highlights the immense PR challenge before tech companies who have to persuade a highly skeptical public that what they're building will benefit people's lives. Because for many Americans, right now, AI only seems to bring problems. It's going to take their jobs. It's going to raise electricity bills. It's filling up the internet with slop. So which political party do voters see as addressing AI better? Well, it is up for grabs. 20% of respondents said Republicans have a better handle on AI. Well, 90% said Democrats.

I think what's interesting is a little bit of the demographic breakdown here. Those with the most negative views of AI, just to read it off here, voters aged 18 to 34, net favorability of minus 44. Now, who do you think of when you think about that demographic? It's those white-collar workers who tend to be, we've done a lot of stories where their jobs are the most at threat with AI. I think that's kind of like the young entry-level workforce. There's been a lot of reports saying AI is.

going to wipe out their jobs first. I think another thing that's interesting about this study or this poll is those with most positive views of AI men over 50 and upper class voters plus two net favorability. Why do you think that is? Well, if you're about to be retired or you're feeling very comfortable in your station and you're more experienced in your career and you're further along in your career, then perhaps you're not worried as much about AI taking your more managerial or C-suite level role. So perhaps that's what we're seeing with the age breakdown and analysis of this survey does seem to suggest that negative views towards AI are very much correlated or are very much influenced by perceptions of the job market and AI's threats to employment.

One of the funny things is my mom texted me, she's like, have you heard of this chat, GPT? Like recently? No, like, yeah, like within this year. And my immediate response was, oh, no. Okay, for my final number, let's head to the Arctic Circle where an obscure Norwegian soccer club is on a Cinderella run for the ages. Yesterday, Bodo Glimp defeated Portuguese Giants Sporting Lisbon 3-0 in the first knockout game of the Champions League, the highest echelon of European soccer.

To get this far in the tournament, they've already taken out soccer royalty, Inter Milan, Athletico, Madrid, and Manchester City one by one, shocking the world. It's all extremely unlikely, and that's where the numbers come in. A remote arcting fishing port, Boto Glimp plays in a stadium with just 8,200 seats, minuscule compared to the teams it's been beating. In fact, the entire town's population of 53,000 could nearly fit inside the stadium where sporting plays in Lisbon, Portugal. And then there are the challenging logistics of training for soccer north of the Arctic Circle. During the shortest days of the winter, the town gets less than an hour of sunlight so the team's members take supplements to offset the lack of sun.

The pitch, too, is artificial, which is generally frowned upon in top-level soccer, but Botto is given a pass because who could possibly maintain a grass field at 67 degrees north. The team's miracle run has also resulted in a financial windfall that's trickled down to the city's restaurants and hotels. Just during its time in the Champions League, but oh has earned $46 million about half of the club's entire revenue for 2025. Plus, as one local told the AP, everyone is simply happier. Neil, Norway continues to punch above its weight. I mean, we just came, we just finished the Winter Olympics where Nor was completely dominating. But this soccer club, it's a true underdog

story. And we all love an underdog story. We're reminded of the fact that in Norwegian sports, they don't keep score until the age of 13. To me, they just do it for the love of the game. They do, and I'm sure a lot of countries and soccer clubs are looking at what Boto Glimb is doing and saying, how can we replicate this? Because it's very much unheralded players, and just to underscore what they've been doing, they've been defeating the best soccer teams in Manchester City. These payrolls are insane. They're bringing in players from all over the world, the very best players. And then this one small club in north of the Arctic Circle has been defeating them. They're on an absolute miracle run. So this is the first leg of the knockout stage.

They're going to Portugal, but they do have for the second leg, but they do have a three-nil lead. So that's a pretty good lead. And I'm just hoping that they continue this run and more people catch on. Yeah, I want to talk a little bit about the cultural shift that they had in 2019. They actually brought in a key figure, Bjorn Mansberg, a former fighter pilot turned mental health coach and they appointed him as the club's team psychologist. He adopted lessons from his time in Norway's Air Force and his emphasis was basically shifting the team performance and not the results. So even the word winning was banned and rigorously policed and he brought in yoga, mindfulness, breathing techniques. So all of these different techniques versus like your classic

sports processes and practices. What he basically did, he changed the mentality of the team. Let's sprint to the finish with some final headlines. Howard Schultz, the former CEO of Starbucks, is looking forward to having his toes in the water and butt in the sand as he joins the list of billionaires ditching his home state for Sunny Florida. After four decades living in Coffee's spiritual home Seattle, he wrote on LinkedIn that he's entering the retirement phase of his life after buying a penthouse for $44 million. It's another get for South Beach who has attracted fellow billionaires like Ken Griffin, Peter Thiel, and Mark Zuckerberg to its sunny shores with low taxes and warm weather. Just yesterday, Washington passed a new tax on household incomes over

$1 million that opponents warned would lead to an exodus of wealthy residents. Neil, Schultz's plans were likely in place before the tax was levied, but the timing is significant. Wow, what a surprise that a rich person is retiring to Florida. Still, yes, the timing is quite interesting yesterday, lawmakers in Washington State, they passed the first ever income tax in Washington state history. This does not happen in Washington. It's a 9.9% annual tax on personal earnings over $1 million that's projected to impact about 20,000 households. Likely Howard Schultz was one of them. And then he kind of sub-tweeted the law in his LinkedIn post. He said, while not calling out directly, he said, it is our hope that Washington will remain a place for business and entrepreneurship to

thrive, creating essential opportunity for those in Seattle and the surrounding areas. Seems to me like he's certainly referencing this wealth tax. And that's been a concern by certain more conservative lawmakers who warned that this wealth tax is going to lead to an exodus. But what's interesting is that people are still moving to Washington State. It is actually one of the top states for gaining total residents last year. It ranked six among all U.S. states. So people are still, I don't know why they're going there.

I mean, it is beautiful. It's quite rainy. It is a pretty city. But people are moving to Washington, perhaps. Some billionaires like Howard Schultz are going to be moving out. Okay, and finally, here is a question. Does a restaurant have a legal duty to warn you if their salsa is spicy? It's not theoretical.

That was the conundrum facing a U.S. district judge in Manhattan after a German tourist sued a Times Square tacharia when he developed, quote, severe physical symptoms after taking one bite of a taco with green salsa. During a 2024 trip to New York, the tourist Ficolmans said he ordered a taco from Los Tacos number ones and added green salsa. After taking one bite, he recalled to Gothamist, quote, I felt I was too hot, my mind, my head, and said he suffered gastrointestinal distress and mouth sores that lasted for days. The judge was not sympathetic.

US District Judge Dale Ho found, quote, there is no duty to warn a consumer of the spice associated risks that come with consuming salsa. He added that the chain salsa fell with. in the norm of similar products. And that quote, in fact, when it comes to salsa, the spice is often the point. Yeah. What I love about this story is that the reporter himself went to Los Tacos and recreated the steps himself.

And his ultimate verdict was, yeah, it's not that spicy. Like, he asked people around him, he was like, is this spicy? And they're like, no, it's not that spicy. And it's like one of those things where, you know, the point, like you said, of salsa is to add some spice, some flavor for it. I mean, we all love putting it in our tacos. Neil, this guy would not laugh on hot ones one second. He would not.

Listen, we'll never know what was actually going on in his mouth when he took a bite of that salsa. We just don't know. But what we do know is that he is a pretty litigious guy and he filed several lawsuits when he was here. During that one trip in the United States, he was just filing lawsuits left and right. He also sued a New Jersey Walmart for discrimination because he wasn't able to access the store's Wi-Fi because the login required a domestic phone number. that lawsuit was dismissed by a federal court last month. This is the same court that ruled on the tacos that is currently ruling on SBF and Diddy,

and then the judge also has to take some time. What a range. What a range to take some time to talk about the spiciness of tacos. I think he was correct in saying the point of salsa is to add a little spice. All right, that is all the time we have. Thanks so much for starting your morning with us. Have a wonderful Thursday. If you like to reach us, send an email to Morningbrewdaily at Morningbrew.com or DM us on

Instagram at MB Daily Show. Let's roll the credits. Emily Milliron is our supervising producer. Raymond Lou is our senior producer and all-star co-host. Our producer is Olivia Graham and our associate producer is Olivia Lake. Hair and makeup is on a butter making run. Devin Emery is our president and our show is a production of Morning Brew. Great show today, Neil. We'll see you all tomorrow.