Morning Brew Daily - Market Tumbles After Jobs Report & Nasdaq Wants to Trade Around the Clock

Episode Date: December 17, 2025

Episode 737: Neal and Toby explain why the jobs report sent the market tumbling on Tuesday. Then, the latest on the race to be the next fed chair and why Nasdaq wants to trade around the clock. Next, Uber and Doordash are against a tipping law in New York and the headlines you need to know to start your day.  Subscribe to Morning Brew Daily for more of the news you need to start your day. Share the show with a friend, and leave us a review on your favorite podcast app. Visit public.com/morningbrew to learn more Paid endorsement. Brokerage services provided by Open to the Public Investing Inc, member FINRA & SIPC. Investing involves risk. Not investment advice. Generated Assets is an interactive analysis tool by Public Advisors. Output is for informational purposes only and is not an investment recommendation or advice. See disclosures at public.com/disclosures/ga. Past performance does not guarantee future results, and investment values may rise or fall. See terms of match program at https://public.com/disclosures/matchprogram. Matched funds must remain in your account for at least 5 years. Match rate and other terms are subject to change at any time. Watch Morning Brew Daily Here:⁠ ⁠⁠https://www.youtube.com/@MorningBrewDailyShow⁠ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Many employees can't afford a hefty medical bill that pops up out of the blue. But it happens. And employees who are financially stressed are, understandably, more likely to be distracted at work, costing their employers greatly in lost productivity. Luckily, AFLAQ plans help with out-of-pocket expenses not covered by health insurance and can be offered at no direct cost to businesses. Learn more at aflac.com slash morningbreedaly. That's aflack.com slash morning brewdaily.

Good morning, Brudeaily show. I'm Neil Fryman. And I'm Toby Howell. Today, who's going to be the next Fed chair? Probably a guy named Kevin. Then after a long delay, the jobs report is finally here. And it kind of stinks. It's Wednesday, December 17th.

Let's ride. Let's say you're watching a TV show and he'd want to avoid spoilers. Maybe you'll stay off the internet for a bit or avoid talking to friends who are ahead of you. But there's another place. you may want to stay away from, Google Earth. Fans of the hit Apple show Pluribus are confronting the fact that Google Earth's historical imagery reveals a major plot point in episode 7 if you zoom in on the fake neighborhood outside of Albuquerque that was used for the set.

I'm not going to tell you what it is, of course, but Toby, this has got me spooked. I'm still in the middle of Lord of the Rings, and I'm totally going to stop my Google Maps Street View Tour of Osgiliath. What people do with their free time astounds me. How does one even remotely begin to, one, find the set, and then two, know to go back through old historical satellite imagery to then stumble upon a spoiler. I wonder what other shows, though, you could spoil with some good old historical Google Earth data, Red Wedding, Game of Thrones. And you know what, I'm just kind of hold my tongue there because apparently I've spoiled shows on our show before, namely the ending of the summer I turned pretty. So I'd rather you direct your ire towards Google Earth than towards Toby Howell.

And now a word from our sponsor, Public. Now, remember when we said we'd start doing more adult things this year? Yeah, and I've been pretty good. I've been meal prepping, getting better sleep, and hitting the gym. Okay, brag. Well, I made progress with my investing portfolio by joining Public. Here's what's cool about Public. They have generated assets which allow you to turn any idea into an investable index with AI.

That feature is pretty cool. You can literally type in any prompt like renewable energy companies with high free cash flow or semiconductor suppliers growing 20% year over year and put the AI to work. It screens thousands of stocks, builds a one-of-a-kind index, and lets you back-test it against the S&P 500. I am going to be adulting so hard this year. Get started at public.com slash morning brew and earn an uncapped 1% bonus when you transfer your portfolio.

That's public.com slash morning brew paid for by public investing, full disclosures in podcast description. Like a study and play. Come together on a Windows 11 PC. And for a limited time, college students get the best of both worlds. Get the Unreal College deal, everything you need to study and play with select Windows 11 PCs.

Eligible students get a year of Microsoft 365 premium and a year of Xbox GamePass Ultimate with a custom color Xbox wireless controller. Learn more at Windows.com slash student offer. While supplies last, ends June 30th, terms at AKA.m.m.S. College PC. Hinge date with a punctuality problem. The November jobs report dropped in yesterday, looking messy and late.

Employers added 64,000 jobs last month, but officials also revealed a revised October report that showed the U.S. economy lost 105,000 jobs a month prior. The biggest red flag, other than failing to hold the door open for you, is that the unemployment rate rose to 4.6%. That is up from 4.4% the month prior in the highest level since September 2021 when the country was still emerging from the pandemic. A steady rise in unemployment suggests the labor market is seeing a structural weakening, aka the exact kind of move that the Fed is hyper attuned to as it indicates a broader slowdown, not a one-off blip.

It remains a lumpy job market out there. Some sectors like health care and hospitality are still crushing it, while other areas like manufacturing remain anemic. The federal government, for instance, saw a decline of 162,000 jobs. over the last month as workers affected by Doge officially came off payrolls. One more vibe killing stat. Wage growth slowed to its lowest level since 2021, which only adds to the pessimism pie consumers have been eating lately.

Neil, do not go on a hinge date with the November jobs report. Certainly not. But I do want to present some beige flags or maybe even some green flags because I don't think this report was as bad as maybe you described. And to do that, I want to go where no one has gone. before, an extra decimal place. So you said the unemployment rate rose from 4.4% to 4.6%. That is technically true, but let's go an extra decimal place. It rose from 4.44% in September to 4.56% in November. And due to the vagaries of rounding, you get something that is maybe a little more

dramatic than what the 4.4 to 4.6% suggests. Then again, you also look at private. Payrolls. So we talked about the fact that Doge eliminated 162,000 government jobs, but let's look at private payrolls. They have risen by an average of $75,000 per month for the last three months. So that may be suggests stronger underlying job creation than the headline number of job losses may suggest. So there's some glass half full statistics that may be show that this is maybe more of a confusing or muddy job report than the headline number suggests. All right, fine. You had red green flags and base flags. I'm going right back to red flags, though, and that is young people are struggling in this job market. Employment prospects for young workers age 16 to 24 are grim in November.

Their unemployment rate rose to 10.6 percent, the highest since November 2021, or the highest since 2021. So you don't need an extra decimal point there to know that it's not great that people are the youngest people, the people entering the workforce in the beginning of their careers, are having struggles doing that. And then also we are just below stability in general. Right now, the U.S. economy is failing to put enough jobs into the job market to keep up with the supply of new workers. So we are seeing if you just average out the last three months of jobs growth, we're adding just 22,000 jobs. On a six-month basis, job growth is averaging just 16,000 jobs per month. That is not a replacement rate. That is not signs of a stable jobs market. That is

breaking even in terms of new people being added into the workforce, having jobs available for them. Yeah, I mean, when you do the sector breakdown here, there's really only one sector that is adding jobs. I mean, this is basically like Joe Burrow on the Bengals. They're the only company or the only sector that is actually doing anything to improve the prospects of the job market. And that is health care and social assistance. So healthcare and social assistance accounted for 116% of private sector job gains across October and November. And you're thinking, how can something add 116% of total jobs? So that's because everything else was losing jobs. And one sector I want to highlight there is manufacturing. Manufacturing

lost 5,000 jobs in November. Manufacturing payrolls haven't risen. They've been all negative since March, and they are now at their lowest level since March 2022. We have certainly not seen a manufacturing renaissance as a result of high tariffs on the rest of the world. I do think the Fed is holding their nerve when looking at this, though, because one thing that they've said is that there's significant data distortions over just the last a few months. The government shutdown made everything a little bit won't wanty right now. So maybe they won't put as much sway into these big revisions or these big upsides one way or the other because they're saying, listen, we know we're peering through, you know, muddy glasses right now.

Let's late for everything to clear up a little bit before we make any prognostications or react too strongly. Let's give the final word to RSM economist Joe Bruce Suelas, who wrote a report on the jobs report that was released yesterday, and he said, if you are not confused, you are not paying attention. Moving on, the race for the next Fed chair has been shaken up over the last few days, with Kevin overtaking Kevin as the most likely new central bank boss. Yes, both the final contenders to replace Jerome Powell in May are named Kevin. President Trump has signaled that within a few weeks,

he's probably going to choose between appointing Kevin Hassett, currently a top economic advisor at the White House, and Kevin Warsh, a former Bush economic advisor and ex-fed governor. I think you have Kevin and Kevin Trump said on Friday. I think the two Kevins are great. However, there's growing belief that one Kevin might be a more likely pick than the other, and it's not the Kevin most thought. Hassett, the White House economist, was long viewed as the frontrunner because of his

close relationship with Trump and his advocacy for lower interest rates, which is what Trump has pleaded for. Since September, Hassett has been the odds-on favor in prediction markets with Kevin Warsh in second. But this week, the flippening happened. On Tuesday, Kevin Warsh surged ahead of Hassett as the favorite for the next Fed chair. That came from a one-two punch. Number one, Trump indicated in an interview that Warsh was now at the top of his list.

And number two, a CNBC report on Monday revealed that people close to Trump were warning him against choosing Hassett over concerns of a bond market revolt. Then again, I just checked Kalshi this morning. And now Hassett is back in the lead. So it really does feel like a toss-up at this point. More importantly, Toby, is a lot. America ready for a Fed chair named Kevin? I think Kevin's are in a bit of a lose-lose scenario no matter who wins. Either you one kind of bend the knee to the executive branch and deliver the low interest

rates that Trump wants, which increases concerns of the Federal Reserve lacking independence, which is what a lot of people are highlighting. Or you don't bend the knee in our subject to a very rocky tenure with Trump after he presumably might turn on you if you don't do exactly what he says. So maybe you don't even want the job if your name is Kevin. You're already behind an apeal when your name is Kevin. I'm just kidding. But also, maybe it won't even be one of the Kevin's at all. You mentioned another kind of change in the prediction market odds this morning. Later this afternoon, Trump is meeting with Chris Waller, which is a Fed governor he appointed in 2020. Waller is viewed as someone who would defend the

institution's independent. So the fact that they're having a meeting later, that has got people saying, actually, maybe it's not the Kevin's. We want Waller in here. So maybe he's the dark horse in the Kevin versus Kevin race. Yeah, a few finance titans have sounded off on who they would want as the Federal Reserve chair. J.P. Morgan, CEO Jamie Diamond, who is really the kingmaker in this space, implied that he would prefer Warsh, which is the more mainstream view outside of Waller, as opposed to Hasse it, in a meeting. So he is, he wants to back Warsh and he doesn't like the HACET pick because HACET is so close to Trump

and would maybe lower interest rates when the market doesn't exactly benefit from that. And then Ken Griffin, who's the CEO of Citadel, didn't say anything one way or another indicating who he would prefer, but he did make it clear that the most important move the president and the incoming Fed chairman can make is to create distance between the White House and the Fed. And maybe that's, you know, a backhanded knock against Kevin Hassett, who again works in the White House. And while he has gone in interviews this past weekend and before that saying he would protect the Fed's independence is seen as pretty buddy, buddy with Trump. Yeah, Hassett has been on damage control saying like, no, he would have no way, which is what you're supposed to say if you're a candidate for Fed share. But the two Kevin's and a Chris, it sounds like a messed up sitcom that is coming down at the pipeline here.

With only the global economy. Exactly. Moving on, bust out a Red Bull in the soundtrack from Challengers. NASDAQ wants you to pull an all-nighter. The second largest U.S. Exchange asked the SEC for permission to beef up its trading hours by adding an additional session from 9 p.m. to 4 a.m., bringing the total amount of time you can make ill-fated bets on Beyond Meat to 23 hours. The pros of such an approach include letting your cousin in Brussels day trade during his waking

hours as it would invite market participants outside the U.S. to play ball. U.S. stocks dominate global portfolios, so investors in Asia to Europe who currently react after the fact to big events like earnings or Fed decisions could capitalize on information more quickly. Now, the downsides are what you'd expect. Near continuous trading can lead to some wild swings, especially during times like 3 a.m. when volume and liquidity are low. Still, this is the way the trading world is moving.

The New York Stock Exchange received initial approval for 22-hour weekday trading earlier this year, while Robin Hood and other brokers both already offered 24-hour trading, albeit executed on less regulated exchanges. Neil, nothing like waking up with night terrors at 3.30 in the morning to see you've lost a quarter of your net worth on a quantum computing stock. From what I understand, this is being very much cheered by traders in Europe in Asia, where they want more accessibility to the U.S. stock. market, which is the biggest in the world. Foreign holdings of U.S. stocks reached a record $17 trillion

last year. The U.S. stock market represents almost two-thirds of the market value of all listed companies globally. When we're talking about the NASDAQ, which wants to go 23 hours, it's home to Nvidia, Apple, and Amazon. So if you're in Hong Kong or a trader and you have to wake up in the middle of the night to actually trade the most valuable companies in the world, that can be very annoying. So they say, wow, this is a game changer for us to be more in line with the trading hours of the United States where these are all the stocks I want to buy. And I think one factor that we have to mention that's driving a lot of this is cryptocurrency. Now, Bitcoin has come along over the past decade or so, and you can trade it 24-7. When the markets go quiet after

Friday at 4 p.m., Bitcoin is still going crazy and people are making money or losing money on Bitcoin, Ethereum, a bunch of other cryptocurrencies. And that ushered in a new paradigm of 24-7 trading. We're all in the internet anyway, the pandemic has also blurred the lines between working hours and non-working hours. This is just our new reality. So that's what proponents say, why we should move to more 24-7 trading. And then some detractors pointed out, there's a role for pauses in markets. You need pauses to allow people to digest information to kind of reduce some of the volatility, maybe in some of your positions. Companies need to be able to rely on downtime, to release earnings, to conduct these meetings to not have every single thing that they do move the markets. There are a reason why we have

these positive markets, at least that's why some people are proponents of just the normal system that we have right now. And there's been some very strong language coming out of Wall Street. A Wells Fargo trading desk put out a response saying, this is literally the worst thing in the world because it just makes, that is a direct quote from Wells Fargo. They argue that nonstop trading pushes markets further towards gambling behavior. It encourages more speculative trading, especially at those wee hours in the morning where big swings can happen because, you know, bid ass spreads are wider. There's just less institutional money flowing through things. And I think that is the big question, mark, is this just going to be all retailers trading at crazy hours or are institutions going to

provide maybe that stabilizing liquidity force in the markets that make them a little bit more efficient? These are all questions that are still up in the air. I think they're also just annoyed about having to create the infrastructure. And you're not just annoyed, but also it's going to cost a lot of money to run something 24 or 23 hours a day. Like, think about if you're a store owner and you're open from 7 a.m. to 7 p.m. You shut off the lights. You go home and you can go back to your family. But then the parent company says, okay, actually, you guys have to stay open 24-7. That means hiring people overnight.

That means keeping the lights on overnight. that means more inventory management overnight. That means building the infrastructure to go from, you know, 7 a.m. to 7 p.m. to an all-day operation. That's exactly what's happening over at Wall Street. They need this whole infrastructure behind it, which is going to cost tens of billions of dollars. But I don't know, it looks like the momentum is shifting toward this 24-7 trading. It's maybe a matter of when, not if. All right.

We're going to take a quick break and come back with a story about tipping right after this. Yamava Resort and Casino at San Manuel is California's number one entertainment destination for today's superstars. Catch the Jonas Brothers return to the Yamava Theater stage on April 30th, the powerful vocals of Demi Lovato on May 17th, and the signature Southern Country Rock of Eric Church on July 19th. Tickets on sale now at Yamavat Theater.com, only at Yamava Resort and Casino, celebrating its 40th anniversary. You in? Must be 21 to enter.

Kayak gets my flight, hotel, and rental car right, so I can tune out travel advice that's just plain wrong. Bro, Skycoin, way better than points. Never fly during a Scorpio full moon. Just tell the manager you'll sue. Instant room upgrade. Stop taking bad travel advice. Start comparing hundreds of sites with kayak and get your trip right. Kayak, got that right.

Uber and DoorDash are throwing a Christmas time Hail Mary to try and block a new tipping law coming to New York City next year. The food delivery companies sued the Big Apple over a measure that will change the way tipping looks on their apps. The law coming into effect in January forces them to prompt customers to tip their delivery person up front instead of after the transaction. And the default tip will be a minimum of 10%. The companies say this infringes on their First Amendment rights to free speech by requiring them to relay a government mandated message to their customers. They argue that people are suffering from so much tipping fatigue that they'll stop ordering food delivery due to pre-checkout sticker shock.

New York City Council shot back, hey, what goes around comes around. The city enacted the law as a counterattack to Uber and DoorDash moving their tip prompt post-checkout in 2023, seen by critics as a move to suppress worker pay and make them more dependent on the apps for work. But stick with me here. There's one more layer to this. The move by Uber and DoorDash to move tips to the post-checkout screen was itself a response to New York City introducing a minimum wage for.

for delivery workers in 2023, which raised costs for the companies. So the full timeline is New York mandates a minimum wage for delivery workers. Delivery apps move their tipping prompts to after the order was completed. New York makes them move it back and Uber and DoorDash sue to stop that from happening. Toby, it is one battle after another between the city and the apps, but it highlights the stakes in what's become a massive food delivery industry. Yeah, let's go back to 2023 when this minimum pay rate for app-based delivery workers was established in New York City.

That prompted the companies to move tipping after checkout because they were saying, hey, we're paying these workers more. We don't want people to open up their apps and see their delivery fees plus a tip and just go, it's not even worth it anymore. So it was in their best interest to move it later in the process. And as a result of that, tips did collapse. So there is massive. Just think about the consumer behavior here.

Are you going to tip more if you are presented with it, immediately or are you going to tip go back after your meal and open your app again and tip people. Obviously it's going to lead to less tips. And a lot of workers have come on and say like, hey, yes, my earnings have gone up because of this minimum pay, but my tipping absolutely collapsed from out from underneath me. So whatever way the, you know, this lawsuit turns out, it does absolutely change how people are getting compensated for, you know, delivering your, your meals because it does affect the tipping rate. Yeah, delivery workers absolutely got paid more because of the minimum wage. Today, delivery workers, they're guaranteed a little over $21 per hour

spent actively delivering. And DoorDice says they make closer to $30. But you're right, tipping has gone down precipitously and as a share of their earnings. Customers tipped, tipped 64% less and tips while they accounted for 50% of a workers delivery workers income before this minimum wage law. Now they account for just 13% of their earnings per hour in the second quarter of 2025. So little UX tweaks and minimum wage things can make a really big difference as evidenced by the law in 2023 and all of the wrangling that's come after it. And the city council's position here is that it's just about transparency. Customers deserve that clarity at checkout. Workers deserve the fair chance to receive a tip for their work. And this is not necessarily a new thing.

It would just be returning back to how it always was, which is tips before checkout. I have noticed, too. Unfortunately, I order some food on delivery apps from time to time. And I think they are A, B, testing a little bit, because sometimes I get prompted before. Sometimes I don't get prompted. So there's certainly some experiments going on with any of these companies right now saying how does it affect it? Is it actually true that it's going to lead to sticker shock at checkout? Or could we actually put tips back where they originally were? Toby, you are not the only one who orders food delivery. New Yorkers spent more than $265 million on restaurant deliveries in the first half of 2025. That is up from $183 million during the same period of 2022. So when you're

looking for pandemic trends that have stuck around, it's not Peloton, it's food delivery. I was at least like $50 of that, the bad total right there, Dale. On one order. All right, let's print to the finish with some final headlines. Jared Kushner is out. Yesterday, Affinity Partners, the PE firm tied to Jared Kushner, officially exited Paramount's bid for Warner Brothers Discovery. This comes just days before Warner Brothers is expected to reject Paramount's latest $30 per share,

all cash offer. One of the board's biggest concerns was whether Paramount's complex funding structure could hold itself together. There was money coming in from Saudi, Katarie, and Abu Dhabi's investment funds. Oracle stock was being pledged as collateral. Banks were involved. It was all held together by tape and Hutzpah. Affinity exiting validates those concerns and has totally flipped this bidding more on its head.

As of this morning, Netflix is firmly back in the lead to get a deal done, according to prediction markets, with Kalsi showing a 70% chance that they will successfully take over Warner Brothers compared to days of Paramount being the odds on favorite. Wow. So looks like what's going to happen today is Warner Brothers is going to reject Paramount's $30 per share bid, which will, you know, send Paramount back to the drawing board and saying, should we come back with a higher offer? The problem is they are worth $15 billion. Netflix, who they're going up against, is worth over $400 billion. The question mark here is the big boy Larry Ellison. He's the father of David Ellison, who controls Paramount. Larry Ellison is one of the

richest people in the world. However, there are questions reportedly among Warner Brothers Board about whether he is good for all of the money. The Ellison family is backstopping, all $41 billion in equity commitments, and they're just not sure whether he is truly committed, I mean, or he, a lot of his wealth, he's one of the richest persons in the world. A lot of his wealth is tied up in Oracle stock. Oracle stock has dropped about 45% from their September high. He's still extremely rich and can afford. this, but I think there is a huge Larry Ellison question mark, and now the ball is in Paramount's court to see whether they'll come back with a better offer. Facing intense pressure to cut costs,

Volkswagen is doing something it hasn't done in its 88-year history, closing a plant in Germany. The final car rolled off the assembly line at VW's factory in Dresden yesterday, a red ID3 GTX, when it was signed by workers and will go on display for visitor tours. CEO of Volkswagen brand Thomas Schaefer said, we did not take this decision. to end a vehicle production at the transparent factory, as the Dresden plant is known, after more than 20 years lightly. From an economic perspective, however, it was absolutely necessary. Volkswagen has been punch-bugged on the nose by weakening sales in Europe and in its biggest market, China, while U.S. tariffs contributed to a $1.5 billion loss last quarter, shutting down plants, which was

floated earlier this year, is a very sensitive political issue inside Germany, given that VW is one of the largest employers in the country. And this Dresden plan, in particular, is very visible because it opened in 2001. It's been cranking out cars for over two decades, but it's also nicknamed the Transparent Factory because it's got this really cool glass wall design. So it is a production site, but it's also kind of this showcase experience for Volkswagen.

So I think that's why a lot of people, obviously it's crazy that they're closing down a plant. This is not something this company ever does. But the fact that it's the Dresden plant, it's just so visible and so recognizable that makes it feel even more symbolic. Finally, sometimes a CERSEN, silly internet story can do a little good. Remember that viral picture of the drunk

passed out raccoon after rating a Virginia liquor store Thanksgiving weekend? It's translated into big bucks for the local animal shelter that helped him nurse his hangover. Merch commemorating the viral raccoon has raised over a quarter of a million dollars for the Hanover County Animal Protection Shelter, which teamed up with an apparel maker to release a line of merch featuring trashed panda, including cups, stickers, and sweatshirts. They sold around 19,000 items so far. And if you're wondering, whatever happened to that raccoon, officials said it was uninjured besides some hangover symptoms and regret over poor life choices. Local businesses have also been cashing in a little bit.

The downtown Ashland Association lost a raccoon-themed scavenger hunt to try to boost up foot traffic. This is what you're supposed to do when you have a very wholesome meme go viral. Cash in on it, raise some money for a good cause, you know, get some people involved in the community. The pictures are genuinely hilarious. I do encourage you, if you haven't already come across it, look up the trashed panda, look up the drunk raccoon because it's weirdly relatable because he got thrown in a kennel after that they convert it into a drunk tank. So a lot of people are like, people have been there, you know, regretting your choices the night before.

They also can't figure out how to keep this raccoon out of the building. He's a repeat offender. He's broken into other buildings around this town. Raccoons just have the ability to kind of, they look like bandits. because of their facial hair, but also because their ability should just get into places. So raccoons, you just can't keep them out of the liquor cabinet sometimes. Okay, that is all the time we have. Thanks so much for starting your morning with us and have a wonderful Wednesday.

If you want to get in touch, you can set a note to Morning Brew Daily at Morningbrew.com or DMS on Instagram at MB Daily Show. Let's roll the credits. Emily Milliron is our executive producer. Raymond Loo is our producer. Our associate producers are Olivia Graham and Olivia Lake. Here on makeup is a worse spoiler than Toby. Devin Emery is our president and our show is a production of Morning Brew.

Great show that I, Neil. Let's run it back tomorrow.