Morning Brew Daily - Meta Offers $100M to Poach OpenAI Talent? & Nippon Closes $14B US Steel Deal

Episode Date: June 19, 2025

Episode 608: Neal and Toby recap the Fed meeting where Fed Chair Jerome Powell continues to hold rates steady. Then, Nippon closes its acquisition of US Steel with the US getting the rare ‘golden share’ of the deal. Also, Sam Altman is spilling the beans about Meta’s attempt to poach OpenAI’s talent with $100M offers. Meanwhile, Neal shares his favorite numbers: a new meme stock, the office supply, and the cost of being a sports fan nowadays.  00:00 - Tune in for our branding deep dive! 2:30 - Fed keeps it chill 6:30 - Nippon closes the steel deal 11:00 - Meta tries to poach OpenAI talent 15:30 - Meme stock madness 18:10 - Office glut cleanup 21:00 - It’s expensive to be a sports fan 24:40 - Sprint Finish! Gain the edge with Amazon Ads by going to advertising.amazon.com/startnow Subscribe to Morning Brew Daily for more of the news you need to start your day. Share the show with a friend, and leave us a review on your favorite podcast app. Listen to Morning Brew Daily Here: https://www.swap.fm/l/mbd-note  Watch Morning Brew Daily Here: https://www.youtube.com/@MorningBrewDailyShow Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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pwc.com slash U.S. slash brew AI. That's pwc.com slash us slash brew AI. Good morning, Brew Daily show. I'm Neil Fryman. And I'm Toby Howell. Today, you'll never believe how much Zuck is offering Open AI employees to change sides. Then the Fed held interest rates steady as she goes,

much to the president's chagrin. It's Thursday, June 19th. Let's ride. Good morning. Today is June 10th, the newest federal holiday that commemorates the end of slavery following the Civil War, specifically the day enslaved African Americans in Galveston, Texas, finally learned they were free two years after the Emancipation Proclamation.

The stock market is closed and maybe your offices too, so we hope you enjoyed the day off if you have one. Morning Brew told us not to work today. So we actually taped this yesterday afternoon right after the Fed meeting about 3 p.m. Eastern time, which we'll get to in just a second. And since we are off on Thursday, that means you get a special Friday episode as well, where we interviewed a marketing expert

who talked to us about some recent branding snafus like HBO Max changing its name a billion times and whatever the heck Apple was doing with liquid glass. So if you've ever seen a rebrand or a new logo from a company and thought, what in the world were they thinking? Tune into our show on Friday. But back to Thursday and back to a word

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The Fed is acting a lot like your deadbeat boyfriend when it comes to doing the dishes and not really doing much of anything at all. Jerome Powell and Co. left interest rates unchanged as the Fed continues to weigh the impact of President Trump's tariffs, much of the chagrin of President Trump, who has called Powell a numskull and a stupid person in recent days due to his reluctance to lower rates.

Trump's ire is supported by recent data drops. May's CPI report showed price increases are leveling off, with inflation now hovering around its lowest level since 2021, though it's still above the Fed's 2% target. The job market is also showing signs of weakness, with hiring in May slowing from the month prior and unemployment filings creeping up, though, again, still near historic lows.

Another data point that is shaking the Fed's wait-and-see approach is the retail spending data we got on Wednesday, which showed that people are reining in their spending. But most analysts agree it's simply too soon to lower rates because you still have to wait for tariffs to filter through the economy, given that most businesses were able to front-load purchases and dodge some import duties. Neil, the Fed said in a statement on Wednesday that uncertainty about the economic outlook had diminished but remains elevated, which is another way of saying, we ain't doing anything. First of all, how many metaphors do you have left for how to explain how the first of, how the Fed is not doing anything. I mean, you're scraping the bottom of the barrel now. You're still doing

well. Yeah, Powell, once again, is not doing anything. He's in that weight and see pattern. And that is because I listened to his press conference just now. He said that tariffs were not showing up yet in the recent inflation reports, which were much cooler, but they could show up going forward. There is an elevated degree of uncertainty. He said, someone's got to pay for the tariffs. And there are pretty, very high tariffs on imports right now, the highest level we've seen in a century. Someone is going to pay for those. He mentioned that companies had stockpiled goods before the tariffs went into effect. But ultimately, inflation will rise. They don't know how much it's going to rise or whether it'll be permanent or temporary. And that's why they're just standing,

Pat, even though Powell did stress that inflation was cooling, which was great. And the labor market, despite maybe showing some cracks, is still going strong. So overall, he said, we're in a healthy economy, and that justifies our sit-back and wait approach. Overall, though, a lot has changed since the Fed last met. I mean, there obviously is the tariff announcement in pauses, but also there's been this introduction of this huge tax and spending bill in Congress that is currently still making its way through the houses. And most recently, there's been this outbreak of fighting between Israel and Iran.

So there is a lot going on that the policymakers have to weigh. And so standing pat seems to make sense. But you kind of hit the nail on the head in a lot of ways, the situation. is relatively similar to what it was three months ago. Unemployment is still low. The jobs market is still pretty stable. Inflation is still cooling, but there still is that injection of uncertainty, which is why rates aren't going anywhere despite, you know, Trump's wishes.

The Fed did update their economic forecast and their inflation forecast, which we should mention. They raised their median estimate for inflation at the end of 2025 to 3% from 2.7%. So they forecast inflation will be a little bit higher. And then when it comes to economic growth, they lowered their forecast for economic growth for the rest of the year from 1.7% to 1.4%. You pull on different levers in order to lower inflation and boost growth. One leads to suggest that you should cut rates. The other suggests that you should raise rates, which again leads to this particular stuck in the mud situation that we have here.

But the takeaway from the Fed meeting, I think, is that the least. labor, that Jerome Powell sees the labor market as healthier than maybe most analysts are looking at right now. And he just doesn't any pushback on Trump criticism saying, hey, look, we're all in this for the same thing, is to keep the U.S. economy chugging along. And that's what me and all my central bank buddies are doing. And so he can criticize us all we want. And that is our goal. And we're just going to stick to that. After a year and a half in limbo, Nippon closed its $4.9 billion takeover of U.S. steel on Wednesday, forming the second biggest steelmaker in the world. And it was a journey that would make even Frodo tired.

Months ago, former President Biden blocked the deal, saying that a Japanese company shouldn't be able to control an American industrial icon that makes a product crucial to national security. Trump came into office and was also against the deal until he wasn't and gave it the green light. So what changed? As a precondition of the takeover, the U.S. government was handed a so-called golden share in the new company, an unusual arrangement that gives Trump a say in major decisions, such as employee salaries, board composition, plant closures, name changes, headquarters locations, and a lot more.

While other countries have employed golden shares before, like the UK and France, it hasn't been used in the United States. And some libertarian critics say this level of government control could set a worrying precedent for foreign companies investing in the United States. Whatever you think of a golden share, the deal is a big win for U.S. Steel, which was treading water and needed a buyer to stay afloat. As part of the deal, Nippon will invest in additional 11 billion billion. billion dollars and its U.S. operations by 2028, a much-needed cash infusion. Yeah, this perpetual golden share is the real story here because it's not just the Trump administration. It's all in administrations going forward who will now have a share over U.S. Steel. And U.S. Steel is a very, you know, hot-button company in American industry. One, because, you know, steel is a very

important industry, but, two, it's a swing state's located in Pennsylvania. So you can imagine that future administrations might want to play around with that golden share. By the way, how do you even grant a golden share? You get granted a class of preferred stock called Class G, G, as in gold. There's only one of them out there. It doesn't actually give you equity in the company. It's not about monetary gain. It's about control. And that is what the U.S. now has. And you mentioned Ford investors. They're looking at this saying, is this just a one-time thing? Is this just a U.S. deal thing? Or are we going to have to kind of play ball with the government every time we come in and try to take over a U.S. company.

So that injects a lot of uncertainty. Right now, the word we're getting out of the White House is this is just a one-time thing. But it injects that layer of, oh, no, I don't know if I want to do business with the United States anymore if their government's going to get involved like this. And the U.S. government has criticized other countries that took a golden chair in their own national champions. In the past, countries like Brazil, which owns a stake in the planemaker, Embra Air, which is their national champion. China has an indirect stake in a bite.

dance, which is TikTok's parent company. The UK has done this. It has a golden share in the defense company, BAA Systems. And the United States has said, guys, what are we doing here? Like, we're trying to invest in. Your government is coming in, taking control of the company and making all these decisions that we think are better left to corporate decision makers. And now Howard Lutnik, the Commerce Secretary, has really been the architect behind this golden share. And he's sort of staked a path for himself in this administration by thinking a little outside the box and looking to other countries what they're doing and saying, hey, why don't we do this here in the United States? So he implemented this golden share idea. He has also introduced the concept of a sovereign wealth fund,

which for the United States, which I guess is being worked through. That has been typically the domain of other countries. So Lutnik has certainly shaken things up. I guess the positive spin on the golden share idea is that it could facilitate more foreign investment in the U.S. if it is a sector like something of national interest. One is maybe critical minerals. So if you want to shore up, your critical supply chains, it might make sense to have the government involved. And that make you feel better as an investor because they're like, oh, they will want this to succeed because it aligns with their national interest. So potentially that is where you could see people advocating for this. But most people say that America does not typically operate like this. Corporate decision

makers should have more interest over these deals and not the U.S. government. I mean, can't leave this story without mentioning one casualty of the takeover, which is that U.S. Steel shares stop trading on the New York Stock Exchange as of Wednesday. And why is that a big deal? Because U.S. Steel has probably one of the best tickers on the entire stock exchange. It is just the letter X. No one dealt Elon Musk. He's going to find out a way to get that and trade his companies public under that ticker.

All right. Moving on. Mark Zuckerberg has been calling up open AI employees and offering them signing bonuses of up to $100 million if they switch teams. and they're saying no. That's according to OpenAI CEO Sam Altman, who on his brother's podcast this week dropped Jaws by revealing that Meadow was trying to poach his employees

with nine figure offers and even bigger annual compensation packages. However, Altman said so far none of our best people have decided to take them up on that, which simply doesn't check out because what person ever would turn down $100 million? Altman spilling the tea seemed to confirm recent reports that are frustrated Zuck

was taking it upon himself to assemble a new AI super intelligence team meant to help meta catch up to rivals in the high stakes AI arms race. This spring, Meta has lost high profile talent and delayed launches of new models, spurring Zuck to launch a personal recruitment effort to get the ship back on track. To all this, Altman said, game respects game. He told his brother, I've heard that meta thinks of us as their biggest competitor. Their current AI efforts have not worked out as well as they have hoped. And I respect being aggressive and continuing to try new things.

I think Altman's word choice here was very specific because he said that none of his best people had taken up Zuckerberg on his offer. So I think we're seeing pretty high-level people management here because by saying none of your best people are leaving, he's implying that anyone who does go is in fact not one of his best people. And the people who do go are almost like mercenaries motivated by money. So there's like this meta game going on as meta is trying to recruit their people. It is fascinating, though. I wonder if the truth is somewhere in the middle that maybe not everyone has said no or maybe people aren't getting these nine-figure packages

because it does seem hard to comprehend someone saying no to a $100 million signing bonus with additional pay package on top of that after you signed. Yeah, I mean, we've only seen this in the world of baseball or Elon Musk pay packages. It's kind of insane. Altman did have some choice words for meta though. Maybe what I mentioned a part of the podcast that he was being a little nice to meta, but he also knocked them. He said that he disagreed with this concept of a ton of upfront guaranteed comp.

And he also criticized meta. He said, I don't think they're a company that's great at innovation. He accused them of copying OpenAI and said, you know, I think Zuckerberg and Meta, which has been a criticism that's been lobbed at them for years as not being a particularly innovative company, but just being really good copycats. We've seen that time and time again as they've just kind of copied every single update that snap has rolled out or TikTok. So he said this is sort of a loser strategy here. Open AI, we're in the driver's seat.

Up next, we got Neal's Numbers. Welcome to Neal's Numbers, the segment where I share three stats from the week's news that will give you plenty of material for that awkward first five minutes of your Zoom meeting. For my first number, shares of a Hong Kong-based biotech startup have shot up 46,000 percent this year like a meme stock on steroids. a bewildering rally made even crazier by the fact that it has zero revenue. Regen Cell Bioscience says it uses traditional herb-centric Chinese medicine techniques to treat neurological disorders like ADHD and autism, yet its treatments are still in the R&D stage, and according to a filing release last year, it's not particularly commercial ready. The company wrote, we have not generated revenue from any TCM formula candidates

or applied for any regulatory approvals, nor have distribution capabilities or, experience or any granted patents or pending patent applications and may never be profitable. That doesn't stop investors from sending its stock skyward from a market cap of $53 million a year ago to over $30 billion now. That makes it worth more than Lulu Lemon, eBay, and Kraft Heinz. Regin-sell stock surge is reminiscent of another Hong Kong-based fintech company, AMTD Digital, that got the meme stock treatment during summer 2022 when it climbed 126% to give it a bigger market value than Coke and Bank of America. But Toby, this is on a completely other level, 46,000 percent, and no one can really explain it. Yeah, part of the reason why is that there's not a lot of shares

outstanding to be traded. Of its 500 million outstanding shares, only 30 million are available to be traded. So that's about 6%. If you look at big public companies like an Apple, 98% are available to trade. Tesla, 87% are available to trade. Regen cell, 6%. So any move just massive. massively ripples through the entire stock as a whole. And then also there's probably some sort of short squeeze going on here. Remember when GameStop was going upward, that's because a lot of big hedge funds had taken short positions against them. That might be happening here because short interest has a percentage of float is almost 100% in this company. So when it starts going up, a lot of people have to buy back shares to cover their positions, which just sends it up even

further. So short squeeze, low float, there's all these things going on. But yeah, not a lot to actually understand why it started going nuts in the first place. There was one thing that they did earlier this week, which is a 38 to one stock split, which doesn't really raise the, it's not, doesn't change the market value at all. It decreases the individual share price. That was like the only piece of news that happened to this company in the past few years. There hasn't been a breakthrough in their treatments or any, anything like that. So it is just a bewildering thing in, you know, that we've just become accustomed to in the stock market since COVID. started. For my second number, the office market is healing. For the first time in at least 25 years,

more office space is being removed from the United States than added, according to CBRE Group, meaning that office conversions and demolitions will exceed new construction. Across the largest 58 U.S. market, CBRE found 23.3.3 million square feet of space will be demolished or transformed to other uses by the end of this year compared to 12.7 million square feet of new construction. It is a positive sign for an office real estate market that's been hammered by remote work and plummeting property values for empty buildings. Supply being removed from the market should boost rental prices and give a lifeline to landlords that had been panicking over office vacancy rates that shot up to a record high and still remain elevated at 19%. Meanwhile, the office to apartment shift is trudging along just okay since 2016. About 33,000 apartments and condos have been created out of preexisting office space and another 40,000.

3,500 units are in the pipeline. That rate is picking up, too, thanks to government incentives for conversions, loosening of local zoning laws that enable more construction, and plunging prices for zombie office buildings. Toby, this is great news if you own an office building. Yeah, this was really a perfect storm of the last decade for creating an office space glut because obviously federal tax breaks lured developers in to say, like, hey, come build a lot of office space.

There was low interest rate, so barring was very cheap. cheap. Those low interest rates also created maybe an inflated demand for unprofitable startups to move into those buildings. So there was just a lot of free money spinning around where developers were saying, come in, come in, where you have all this office space. And then you toss in the rise of a remote work and everyone left the offices. So it really was just all these offices were created now are sitting empty. So the appeal of converting those into apartments is very high right now. And analysts are a little bit shocked at how quickly it's happening. They thought that this glut would be staying on the market for years, maybe even decades, but it does look like the pace is accelerating because it just makes

so much economic sense to make these conversions. And they have been, they are very expensive to do, and not every office can be converted into an apartment. I mean, I don't want to live here where we are in this office. But it really is thanks to those policy interventions that local governments and city governments have stepped in and said, here, we're throwing money at you in order to do this because we're not making any money and property taxes if of companies. if a building is completely empty and its value is decreasing. So everyone kind of has an incentive to make these conversions happening. And it really is happening at a faster pace than anyone expected.

My final number is $4,800, which is how much it costs to be a Red Sox fan in 2025, including tickets, TV access, and merchandise, a 262% increase from 20 years ago. In a New York Times op-ed that sparked a lot of discussion, sports journalist June Lee calculated the number to highlight how following your sports team has become so expensive that it's out of reach for the regular American. Lee writes that for most of his life, sports is one of the American cultural institutions that was accessible to everyone, which was a huge public good because it fostered community and belonging. Now he says, fandom isn't being nurtured, it's being mined, casting blame on everyone from the leagues to owners and lawmakers for allowing

sports to be turned into a wealth extraction tool for financiers and paywalled for folks. folks like Fireman Ed. He takes particular issue with streaming services saying their land grab for content has resulted in a fragmented viewing landscape that makes it impossible to watch your team without shelling out ridiculous sums of money. Lee found that if you subscribe to every service that carries live sports, and it's a growing list that encompasses Apple TV Plus Max, Amazon Prime, YouTube TV, NBA League Pass, lots more. It would send you back over $2,600 a year. Toby, does he have a point? Absolutely, he has a point. Even the most ardent of sports fans, on the TV and can't even find where their teams are playing because one game has been sold off

to one network. It's no longer being aired on your local network because of blackout deals. So there really has just been in this absolute, you know, slicing and dicing of the sports landscape. And, you know, the point of this op-ed was saying that also fractures community because it used to be something that everyone could come together and watch on TV or go see and it was affordable. But now it's this pay-to-play game and it's just fracturing the very culture of sports in America. Private equity probably is playing a role in that as well because maybe they don't have a great long-term profit outlook. They want to extract profits from their investment, maybe not nurture the community as much. So it just really is an inconvenient time to be a sports fan, which we've

all experienced when you just want to watch, you know, the Yankees play the Red Sox and you can't find it unless you pay $20 a month for an app. And you mentioned private equity. The author does point his ire at private equity, which increasingly leagues are allowing the firms to buy stakes in their sports teams for a long time for decades this was when you owned a sports team you were just kind of a local business owner was really rich and you wanted to buy the team for your legacy or there's kind of this trophy purchase now it's you know these these leagues and these teams are so lucrative that they're getting you know high finance to buy in private

back private equity backed entities currently own stakes in 74 major North American sports teams value it at a combined $230 billion. So he says that that is one of the reasons why we're seeing just prices go up at a much higher rate than inflation. And it's not just streaming or TV. He also says that going to a game, just buying tickets to attend a game is growing much, much faster than inflation from 1999 to 2020. The average price of a seat across all sports rose roughly twice as fast as overall consumer prices. And then between May 2023 and May 2025, those ticket prices increased 20%, which is one the biggest jumps of any category in the inflation basket?

I thought one solution to this is a great idea, and he said Congress should take inspiration from Britain's quote, crown jewel rule, which designates certain events as nationally significant and therefore have to air on TV for free. And so maybe you just slap that label on the World Series Super Bowl, NBA Finals, Stanley Cup, and make them free for everyone to watch because, I mean, we just saw it with the last Super Bowl, Fox also aired on their streaming service, and that brought in a record audience. So people want to watch these games. Just make it easier for them, make it cheaper.

Now let's sprint to the finish with some final headlines. Up first, next time your taxi driver lays on his horn in New York City, it might not be all that effective on the car in front of you, because Waymo is working to bring its driverless taxis to the Big Apple. The cars are coming back to the city next month for the first time since it mapped part of New York back in 2021. But actually, I lied about that horn thing because humans, not robots, are going to be behind the wheel to start.

New York state law doesn't allow for driverless vehicles yet. A fact that Waymo is lobbying to change, also working to secure a permit for its vehicles to drive autonomously with a driver in the seat. Neil Waymo has already expanded into Los Angeles, Phoenix, Atlanta, Austin, and other parts of the Bay Area. But if it can make it in the hustle and bustle of New York City, it can make it anywhere.

You said it. I mean, this is the holy grail for Waymo. It is the biggest city in the country and would just continue this breathtaking expansion. that this company has been on over the past couple years. I mean, two years ago, Waymo is doing 10,000 rides a week, which is pretty minimal. Now, across all of those cities, you mentioned, Phoenix, Atlanta, Austin, Los Angeles, the Bay Area. It's doing 250,000 autonomous trips each week.

It's coming to Miami and Washington, D.C., it's scoping out Boston. It's scoping out New York. So it's getting up to the northeast away from the sunny environs. And that presents new challenges, not just the drivers and the people here, but the weather as well in the street grid here is, is, Certainly more complicated and execs have owned up to that and said, yeah, like, have you tried driving downtown? It is very confusing. And maybe robots will be better at it than people because it is hard for a human as well. I just don't think they're prepared for the things that will be yelled at their little Waymo ears. I know Waymo don't have ears, but the obsanities that New York is going to lob at them, you don't want to hear those.

Finally, while New York debates Chicago over who has the best pizza and Philly feuds with Boston over which is the better sports down, only one city can call itself the most livable in the world, and it is far from the United States. Copenhagen tops the world's most livable city list for 2025, dethroning Vienna, Austria after a three-year run at the top. The annual list, published by the Economist Intelligence Unit, rates 173 global cities using five categories. Healthcare, culture, and environment, education, infrastructure, and stability. Copenhagen slid into the top spot, receiving perfect scores in education, infrastructure, and stability.

for a grand total of 98 out of 100. Routing out the rest of the top five are Vienna, Zurich, Melbourne, and Geneva. No American city cracks the top 10, and you have to scroll all the way down to 23rd to find the first U.S. entry, Honolulu, Hawaii. Neil, if you were wondering about New York, we ranked 69th overall, which nice.

Very nice. That is probably higher than I was expecting, given the affordability crisis here. I hear great things about Copenhagen. It does seem like an extremely livable place. We'll maybe have to get there soon. A few other tidbits from this report I want to point out. Canada has fallen.

Calgary used to be fifth place last year. It dropped out of the top 10 this year to 18th due to a lower health care score. They said going to get an appointment in Canada at a medical clinic is like pretty much impossible. You have to wait in a long line. And you saw other drops from cities like Vancouver, which dropped from 7 to 10, and Toronto, which went from 12th to 16th. A bunch of cities across the UK as well were dropping pretty heavily.

London went from 45th to 54th, Manchester from 43rd to 52nd and Edinburgh from 59th to 64th. I wasn't Edinburgh last year. It is a beautiful city. I think we should make it a little higher than 64th. But yes, a really interesting list here and maybe gives you some ideas of cities to visit. The ones on the top five are all in Switzerland and they seem extremely expensive. Yeah, part of the reason why they rank so high is that the economists know that smaller cities tend to rank higher on the list. I mean, it makes sense. You can just control more when there's less people in the city.

The only big city that ranked even close to the top 10 was Tokyo, which is actually the world's largest city. That came out at 13th. So I guess it shows that you can be this fantastically livable city, but it kind of has to happen over in Japan where they think they got things, you know, figured out. That is all the time we have. Thanks so much for starting your morning with us and have a wonderful Thursday and Juneteenth. you have thoughts on today's episode, send an email with questions, comments, or feedback to Morning Brew Daily at Morningbrew.com. And just remember, on Friday, we're doing a special interview episode. Let's roll the credits. Emily Milliron is our executive producer. Raymond Lute is our producer. Our associate producers are Olivia Graham and Olivia Lake. Yuchinawa Ogu is taking a celebrity shot as technical director. Hair and makeup would go splitsies on an MLB TV account with anyone.

Devin Emery is our president and our show is a production of Morning Brew. Great. So did I, Neil, let's Run it back tomorrow.