Morning Brew Daily - Middle East Tensions Scares Stock Market & Nike Loses Its ‘Cool’?

Episode Date: October 2, 2024

Episode 422: Neal and Toby discuss the rising tensions in the Middle East and how the stock market is reacting. Then, Nike sales have slumped last quarter signifying that it might not be the coolest sneaker on the streets anymore. Plus, California bans private colleges and universities from using special consideration or family connections for admissions, also known as legacy admissions. Next, CNN finally succumbs to the wave using a paywall, joining alongside other major news outlets that are fighting for new revenue streams. Meanwhile, Asheville, North Carolina was once a ‘climate haven’, as in, a city that could withstand the harshest effects of climate disasters. Unfortunately, Hurricane Helene has changed all that. Lastly, a Montana man is arrested and sentenced to federal prison for cloning a giant sheep and constructing an elaborate sheep scheme.  00:00 - What was your Bday weather? 3:10 - Middle East conflict shakes Stock Market 8:10 - California bans legacy admissions at private colleges 11:30 - Nike loses its cool? 17:15 - CNN puts up a paywall 21:50 - Climate havens are no more 25:50 - Sheep scandal Subscribe to Morning Brew Daily for more of the news you need to start your day. Share the show with a friend, and leave us a review on your favorite podcast app. To learn more about how Wise could work for your business, visit https://wise.com/business/  Get your Morning Brew Daily T-Shirt HERE: https://shop.morningbrew.com/products/morning-brew-radio-t-shirt?_pos=1&_sid=6b0bc409d&_ss=r&variant=45353879044316  Listen to Morning Brew Daily Here: https://link.chtbl.com/MBD Watch Morning Brew Daily Here: https://www.youtube.com/@MorningBrewDailyShow Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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pwc.com slash US slash brew AI. That's pwc.com slash us slash brewAI. Good morning brew daily show. I'm Neil Fryman. And I'm Toby Howe. Today, in a blow to Hollywood's Nepo Babies, California banned legacy admissions at private colleges. Then Nike reported earnings yesterday,

and oh boy, does its new CEO have a mountain to climb? It's Wednesday, October 2nd. Let's ride. So yesterday, some of our coworkers at the brew found something way better than astrology to determine your future or describe your personality. It's this website called B-Dayweather.com. It prompts you to enter your birth date and birthplace. Then it tells you what the weather was like on the day and place you were born.

And Neil, I think this explains so much about people. What was the weather like on your birthday? Okay, for me in Springfield, Massachusetts, on August 21st, 1991, it was 74 and rainy. but hopefully my little alien body brought a little sunshine into the area. Okay, here's an idea for a companion website, though. Knowing the weather on your actual birthday is cool, but what I really want to know is the weather on my 21st birthday because that day I definitely don't remember.

Oh, my good Lord. Let's cut that from the record if your parents were listening. What was your birthday weather? My birthday weather on February 4, 1997 in Braden, Florida. It was drizzling with a high of 81. In February. I know. That is really hot and really...

So what does that say about you? I don't know. I think I'm hot and steamy because drizzling in 81 in February. Then an R-rated intro. R-rated intro. But yes, go check out bidayweather.com. It's just a fun thing to, like, send to your friends. And I think it does explain people's personalities

even better than the stars or the sun or the moon or anything like that. Now a quick word from our sponsor, Wise Business, the app for doing things in other currencies. Neil, you know, my half-based. idea about launching sports brew. Oh boy, here we go again. You've been talking about this for five years now. Well, now I think I can pull it off. Think about it. What are the biggest sports in the world? Cricket and soccer? Exactly. And what do those two have in common? Bigger in international markets. Okay, I see where you're going with this. With Wise, we can totally make international

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daily instant prizes and secure a spot in the finale May 29. Don't pass go and own it all. Only at Yamava, celebrating its 40th anniversary. You win? Details at yamava.com must be 21-20. Please gamble responsibly. Monopoly is a trademark of Hasbro. Hasbro is not a sponsor of this promotion. Yesterday, the world's geopolitical temperature ratcheted up in intensity in a big way when Iran fired a barrage of missiles at Israel, escalating the risk of a wider war in the Middle East with global consequences. Iran sent about 180 ballistic missiles in what it said was a retaliatory action after Israel assassinated top leaders of Hezbollah, a militant group in Lebanon that is Iran's most powerful proxy in the region. With a large number of missiles intercepted before they hit their

targets and no reported casualties in Israel, the attack was mostly thwarted, but taken together with Israel launching an offensive into southern Lebanon this week and its vowed to respond to this Iranian strike, concerns are mounting about a wider conflict. And that concern was reflected in the markets. Oil spiked as much as 5% following the attack as investors began to worry over hits to the energy infrastructure in a region that makes up a third of global oil production. Other safe haven assets like gold and bonds rose. Stocks traded lower on the first day of the fourth quarter, while the VIX, Wall Street's fear. gauge popped as much as 24%. Toby, for much of the past year, investors have largely shrugged

off the simmering conflict between Israel and Iran proxies. That ended yesterday. Yeah, anytime you see a flare-up like this, you're going to see crude prices react. And gaining as much as 5% is one of its bigger move. They're still a little lower than their level a week ago because oil has been kind of on the down swing in recent months. but this did cause it to tick back up again because you're right. This is if we see the straight of hormones, which is this key choke point for crude tankers kind of faring oil to China and elsewhere,

if that region gets threatened, that is why oil begins to start trading higher because that would be a huge kind of hit to the oil market. And then the other thing, too, that we've just seen, is that commodity prices in general are typically like the main channel that you see these like, geopolitical tensions manifest in as well. We saw it when Russia invaded Ukraine. Prices of oil, natural gas ticked higher. Prices of wheat also ticked higher. So we are seeing the same thing happen

whenever a geopolitical conflict flares up. It's usually reflected in commodity prices like oil. Yeah, there will be a lot of focus on oil in the coming days. Depend on where this conflict goes. Israel has vowed to respond to this missile attack. And one of their main targets, it seems, it has been reported is Iran's many oil refineries and energy infrastructure. So that is one of the targets that they could go after. And then whenever supply is threatened like this, that's when you see prices spike. And also, yes, Iran controls the choke point by which Arab nations crude oil, which is one of the biggest producers, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, they go through this particular

channel. And before whenever a conflict has flared up in this region, then this choke point becomes much focus and they can, you know, stop tankers from going, getting to their delivery endpoints. So the next few days are critical depending on how Israel responds. But Moody's S&P, the credit rating agencies are expecting more of an escalation. S&P downgraded Israel for the second time their credit rating from A plus to A and joining Moody's, which did the same on Friday. And they cited escalating conflict with Hezbollah. There's also just a lot of conflicting floor. in the market right now. Remember, traders are still actually pricing in this big chance of the Federal Reserve

will lower interest rates by another 50 basis points come November. We are coming off a 50 basis point cut in September. So that's the good. But then also you have the port strike that just kicked off this week on the East Coast, which is going to halt half the flow of goods into the United States by ocean shipping. So lots of economic uncertainty for federal reserve policymakers to address. And then, of course, you have this conflict in the Middle East kind of teetering on a nice edge. So from a macro perspective, I guess what you're looking at is, one, how long is this port strike going to last? How much are, how much is that pain going to manifest? And then two is how big of a conflict that this will eventually balloon into depending on like this severity of Israel's response. Yeah, I mean,

Harold Daggett, who's the head of the International Longshoremen's Association, was everywhere in the news yesterday. He said, we're going to fight for it. And we're we're going to win, or this port will never open up again. I'm not playing games here. And that is quite a statement, especially when you consider that JPMorgan estimates that the economy is going to lose $5 billion a day for every single day. The port is these ports on the East Coast and Gulfport, Gulf Coast are closed. So we'll certainly be watching what happens with the port strike combined with Hurricane

Helene, the conflict in the Middle East. there's a lot of uncertainties swirling around markets, which only just a few days ago hit record highs. If you're thinking of applying to Stanford but don't have good grades, sorry to say that having your dad's name on the School of Public Health isn't going to help you get in. That's because California just banned legacy admissions. On Monday, Governor Gavin Newsom signed a bill that blocks private colleges and universities in the state from giving preferential treatment to an applicant whose family attended or donated to the school. With the move, California becomes the fifth state joining Illinois, Maryland, Colorado, and Virginia to ban some

form of legacy admissions. The policy is a direct response to the Supreme Court ruling last year that made it unconstitutional for a school to consider race in the admissions process. California lawmakers described the legacy admissions ban as a way to ensure diversity among the student body, given that most legacy students are wealthy and white. The California private schools that will be most impacted are USC and Stanford, according to the most recent data. from 2022. About 14% of students who were admitted to both schools had some legacy or donor connection. Toby, the tide has been turning against legacy applicants for a few years now, but California's ban is certainly the most significant because it has the highest number of college students of any

state in the country. Although I remain a little unconvinced because if you dig into what this actually says, private colleges will have to submit this report. They will have to disclose their compliance with the new law. But if you're found in violation, you will essentially not incur any penalties. You might feel public shame because these numbers are going to be public, but there's no financial penalty. So it remains to be seen how effective this will be because right now it appears a little bit toothless. But yeah, there is also debate, too, among some admission offices that legacy consideration and legacy admissions does net benefit the university. The idea is that those families are probably the most likely to donate money

to the colleges, which you can then funnel into financial aid or other projects like that. So that's kind of the argument for legacy emissions. And then, of course, the argument against it is that it predominantly benefits wealthy, white families, and maybe doesn't make an even playing field for people applying to college. So I guess there's two sides to this. But yes, we are seeing this growing wave of states and some private institutions themselves ending this practice of kind of giving preference to legacy emissions. Yeah, I think the backlash against it is that basically it's just not, it's not emblematic of the meritocracy that you'd think American higher ed would espouse. And in general, if you look at the public polling on this issue, most people are against in a 2022 poll by Pew Research Center, 75%, three quarters of American adults, so that university admissions should not be determined by whether someone's relative attended the school.

And in general, colleges, whether by force, by state government edict or not, have been rolling back their legacy admissions policies. In 2021, there were about, you know, one and two, 53 percent of selective four-year colleges considered legacy. But just in the past few years, you've seen Wesleyan in Connecticut, Carleton College in Minnesota. Johns Hopkins has been doing it for years rolling back those legacy admissions in order to comply with state laws or just saying this is not a part of who is. We want to be and we want to find other ways to, you know, assess applicants as they apply. Nike is a company in transition right now. It just made a big change at the top with old CEO John Donahoe being shown the exit by mid-October. It also faces a challenging road ahead to regain its foothold in an increasingly competitive retail and footwear landscape.

So there were a lot of eyes on its fiscal first quarter earnings report it dropped yesterday after the bell. And as expected, it was uglier than a pair of Air Jordan 2009's. Sales fell short of Wall Street expectations with first quarter revenue declining 10%. But more alarmingly, Nike withdrew its full year guidance after previously forecasting sales growth. It also postponed its investor day later in November pretty much because of how much of a bummer it would shape up to be. Neil, main takeaway from this earnings call is that all of the same problems, the lack of innovation, the overreliance on the same old shoe models and the burnt bridges with wholesale partners are still very much an issue and shows the mountain that new CEO, Elliot Hill, has to climb

when he takes the reins. Yeah, it is the sixth straight quarter. Nike has reported single-digit revenue growth or worse. So this is a company in stagnation or even going in reverse right now. I don't know if it's alarming that they pulled their investor day or they pulled their guidance. I think that's just a mechanism for them to say, okay, we're bringing in a new CEO. We're not going to give him any targets here. We're going to give him this grace period to come in, do his thing, meet people, set his own expectations.

So we're not going to put any pressure on him, whether from internally or from Wall Street, and tie him to any particular sales or profit expectations because we really want to just start scratch here. And luckily for them, this new guy is a company veteran. And by veteran, I mean, he started in 1980 as an intern. So he's worked his way up through Nike. and he's been part of the culture there and hopefully he can bring the culture back because Nike has certainly lost at school. It's lost a lot of sales. It profits plunged by on nearly 30% in the latest quarter.

So they have a turnaround that they need to accomplish, but it's not going to happen anytime soon. They're saying that, you know, for this thing to actually work and whatever this plan is, it's not going to come until 2026. Right. One of the issues is that Nike kind of oversold a lot of their coolest or most classic models. like the Air Jordan 1, the Air Force One, Nike Dunks. They became these huge multi-billion dollar footwear franchises, but in the process, they just kind of lost their cool factor. So now they're actually aggressively reducing the supply of those franchises to try to save them.

But when you reduce the supply, of course, sales are going to go down as well. So it is kind of something where they're chopping off their arm to save the whole body here because you do need to reduce the amount of shoes out there in circulation, which, again, isn't just never going to be good for sales. People are just clamoring, too, from the Nike of old. They want them to return to their innovative roots. I mean, go back to 2017, that was the last time that they set the shoe world on fire when they rolled out the Nike Vaporfly, which was this revolutionary running shoe.

But in the year's since, they haven't really done anything that's pushed the envelope as much. So just I could go on and on about Nike kind of seeding market share, seeding innovation to its competitors, burning the, bridges with its wholesale partners. It's just not the same Nike that it was a decade ago. We'll see if Elliott Hill kind of has what it takes and has a turnaround magic to make this company... Great again. Yeah, make it make Nike what it used to be. Up next, CNN wants you to start paying to read their news. Crispy chicken sandwich from 7-Eleven, people always call me loud. And I'm like, yeah, I know. I'm crispy. Did you expect me to whisper? If you want quiet,

go eat some soup and reflect. Like, I know I'm a handful. I'm bull. I'm juicy. Throw some pickles and barbecue sauce on me and baby I'm a whole meal. And with seven rewards, I'm just $4. Quiet. No. Krispy, saucy and $4? Very. Only at 7-Eleven. Valley through 62326 participating stores only while supplies lastly out for full terms. Spring is the season everyone refreshes everything except their blinds. People put it off because they think it's complicated. But at blinds.com, we've spent 30 years proving it's not. Right now, you can save big during the spring Cyber Monday sale. Whether you want to deal, whether you want to deal. DIY it or have a pro to handle everything from measure to install, we've got you. Free samples, real design experts, and zero pressure. Just help when you need it. Shop up to 50% off sitewide. Huge savings on special buys, plus a free professional measure now during the Spring Cyber Monday sale. Rules and restrictions apply. CNN.com is by far the most visited news website in the U.S., and it might be getting more

expensive for you to browse. Starting yesterday if you head to CNN to get your fix of news, which why would you when Morning Brew exists? You might be asked to pay $3.99 a month to access their content. CNN plans to use data glean from the types of stories you read and the time you spend on the site to determine if you are eligible target to get hit with the paywall request. So if you're a more casual newsy, you likely won't see the prompt anytime soon. If you do decide to jump over the paywall, you get some extra content like documentaries, exclusive election content, and fewer ads.

And this is a trend we've been seeing across the industry. Reuters also announced a paywall yesterday, while the New York Times and other outlets have been paid to read for a while now. CNN is down to sacrifice a few million of its monthly audience in exchange for more reliable revenue that comes with subscriptions. Neil, CNN has a ton of online readers lapping its closest competitor, the New York Times, by 80 million monthly unique visitors. So does this monetization pivot make sense? We'll see. I mean, the guy who's trying to do it certainly has the resume. It's Mark Thompson.

He took over as CNN chairman and CEO last year. Now, where he came from was the New York Times. He was there as the CEO for eight years. And what he did is essentially the envy of the news industry because he turned the New York Times into that digital subscription site where you do have to pay. And now it's the envy of the entire news world because they have 10 million paying subscribers. Their revenue is through the. the roof. They are a very solid business at a time when the news business is really bad in general.

So if there's any guide to be able to launch a subscription product on a news website, it's Mark Thompson. The question is whether people will want to pay for CNN when they have been getting CNN news, whether on their TV or on the website for free for decades. Whenever you think of CNN, you just think of, okay, well, it's like the most mass market thing ever. I can just get my news for free. I know you pay a little bit, you know, it's a part of a cable bundle, but so you are paying for it a little bit. But it has just been flooded the airwaves. So this will be a big question of whether CNN's journalism or reporting or its differentiating features will compel people to fork over. It is not a lot.

$3.99 a month. That is much less than its competitors are charging. Right. I think that is the biggest question mark is what does differentiate CNN? Because New York Times, you can say that it is one of those bastions of American journalism. and also has got really nice games and a cooking division as well. So there's a lot of things that differentiate it in particular that makes you want to pay for it. CNN, you're right, is much more mass market news.

And if you see that, oh, man, I have to pay for CNN. Now you could go to NBC News. You go to CBS News. You go to Fox News. You go to NMS NBC. There's a lot of kind of competitors within its same sort of competitive set that still offer its news for free. So that's a gamble that it's making. One thing that could make this a success, though, is the fact that it is part of the Warner Bros.

Discovery conglomerate that David Zlasov leads. And David Zatslav loves bundling products. We just saw it with Max where he put all of its properties under one streaming service. If you tossed in a CNN subscription potentially with your Macs subscription, that might be a way to make your subscriptions in general more sticky. because in the meantime when you're waiting for your new show to drop on max, maybe you say, oh, I get access to this nice journalism. So maybe there's some sort of synergy that can happen between those properties. So we want to get into the strategy room here.

Right. I know. Well, it is interesting because what is the choice? What is the rationale behind making this decision? I do think bundling is part of that. The big picture here is that CNN is just losing a lot of money on its cable TV business, which has been its profit center for so long. long. So it's looking at CNN.com as a way to potentially monetize and offset those losses.

But it is haunted by the attempts of years past. Remember, it spent $300 million trying to build a direct-to-consumer streaming service CNN Plus. That was pulled just days after launch after that new management came in and it changed ownership. So they spent $300 million on trying to do this in the past. This is a much lower-lift way at monetizing other parts of this company because the cable business is sinking. Let's turn now to the aftermath of Hurricane Helene. Yesterday, search crews continued looking for survivors in knee-deep mud in the mountain towns of Western Carolina,

while the death toll crossed 150 people, making Helene one of the deadliest storms in U.S. history. There's been a great deal of disbelief that a hurricane from the ocean could cause so much devastation to the inland hills of North Carolina, far from the coast, and a full 500 miles from where Helene made landfall. Many pointed out that Asheville, the biggest city in the region at the epicenter of the flooding,

had frequently been marketed by media outlets and real estate agents as the quintessential climate haven, a place where you could be shielded from the growing impacts of climate change. For that reason and others, Asheville had been booming in the past few decades. The city's population of 53,000 in 1980 had ballooned to nearly 100,000 by 2020, with more Americans relocating to enjoy Asheville's arson. art's epic beer scene and temperate climate. But after this weekend, as galleries and breweries flooded in Asheville, it became clear that the idea of this mythical place that can fully escape extreme weather, a climate haven, is not really a thing at all, perhaps a marketing

tactic by the real estate industry to juice interest in certain locations. Toby, I think this was a big wake-up call for people thinking about where they're going to move next. Right. If you had asked people literally a week ago, they probably would have said Asheville, North Carolina, is at the top of the list to avoid the worst of storms, avoid the worst of climate change. But Haleen showed that was just definitely a miscalculation. People were worried that it would become too overcrowded due to this climate change migration due to it appearing on all these lists, naming it as the top 12 U.S. City to escape climate change issues. But now we're seeing that that's just not the case. It illuminates just the new reality that a lot of these just the world that we live in in general,

There is unlikely to be any place that is truly completely safe from these huge climate events like that, even high elevation, even inland areas, even places far away from the oceans. They're still vulnerable to these heavy rains in flooding. Yeah, I mean, remember what happened in Vermont last year. Vermont also was on these list of places where, you know, you can escape climate change. But clearly, this is a false sense of security because last year there was huge flooding across parts of Vermont that led to $2.2 billion in damage. And then there's this other places that have been called climate havens include Duluth, Minnesota, which also had a lot of flooding in 2012. So there's been a campaign by maybe the real estate community to say these are places where you can go escape climate change. They are inland.

They are elevated. But often when you look through the details, they are also maybe not as prone as California wildfires or hurricanes in Florida. But they also are prone to major disasters as well. I mean, Asheville has a history of flooding. There was a huge flood in 1916. So when you actually look through the history, you're like, okay, Asheville is maybe not this epicenter of temperate, beautiful climate it was marketed to be. And then you mentioned Florida.

Florida is also seeing a reaction to Helene as well because the real estate market in Tampa and St. Petersburg, the Bay Area, has been one of the hottest in the countries for the last few years. But also, there has been numerous storms, numerous flooding, and just extremely high insurance costs now to deal with. So we are seeing the pendulum swing back a little bit. The Wall Street Journal did this piece saying that people are just fed up with just dealing with this because it is just absolutely wrecks your life when these storms come through. So the market is softening a little bit.

Prices have been flat over the last year, and there's been a 10% decrease in demand, according to a real estate and data analytics firm. So about half of the homes listed for sale in Tampa have experienced price reductions as of September. So these are all signs that maybe one of the hottest real estate markets in the country is soft. due to the effects of these huge storms and just how much it's driving insurance costs up as well. Have you ever been watching the Jurassic Park movies and thought to yourself, dang, I wish this was about sheep instead of dinosaurs? Then boy, do I have the story for you. An 81-year-old rancher from Montana was recently sentenced to six months in federal prison for using body parts from protected animals to create his own giant sheep hybrid that he would then sell to

shooting preserved for a pretty penny. Yes, good old Arthur Shubarth from Vaughn Montana illegally took tissue from a central Asian Marco Polo Argolly sheep and combined it with genetic material from a bighorn sheep to create his own monstrous sheep species perfect for big game hunting. Turns out that is really illegal. He bled guilty in March to two felony wildlife crimes that has been ordered to pay over $20,000 in fines. Neal, all I got to say is thank goodness Arthur was a rancher because if anyone was going to figure out how to create velococopters out here, it would be him. God forbid a man has a hobby, Toby. I mean, who among us hasn't gone to Kyrgyzstan to collect some tissue from one of the biggest sheep species in the world to take back to our ranch

and impregnate lambs on our ranch and then sell those to big game hunting preserves across the United States? Well, the chief of enforcement for the Department of Montana described the case as, in a word complex. And they say the crime, the major crime here is importing illegal wildlife across state lines. And they say that this can threaten the integrity of the wildlife species in Montana. So that is a big no-no. So this story is wild, though.

So he went over, or he got a sample from this Kyrgyzstanian sheep called the Marco Polo sheep, and he cloned it, actually. And the new single male clone is named the Montana Mountain King, MMK for short, And MMK was then used to inseminate use, aka female sheep. If you've done crosswords, you absolutely know that answer. And then he sold it to these hunting preserves, known out of these captive hunting operations.

Apparently, each offspring would fetch in the $10,000 range. The total value of animals involved was between $250,000 to $550,000, according to prosecutors. So this was definitely a money-making operation. And I encourage you to look up pictures of, first of all, the Marco Polo sheep because it is truly huge. 300 pounds that can have horns that span more than 5 feet. So this thing is a monster.

And the Montana Mountain King also is monstrous in itself as well as his offspring. Yeah, I mean, so how do they learn about this? Well, one of the sheep didn't just go to the feds. They found that this scheme, they forged veterinary inspection certificates to move these sheep across state lines. So just a wild story. and I think we should probably end the show there. Thanks so much for starting your day with us

and have a wonderful Wednesday, Shanat Tovah, to everyone celebrating the Jewish New Year, which starts tonight. For any feedback, questions, or comments on the show, send an email to Morningbrewdaily at morningbrew.com, and we'll never stop you from sharing Morningbrewdaily with your friends, family, and coworkers. In fact, we'd love it if you do.

For some help on who you should send a link to today, here's Toby. I want you to share today's podcast with your parents. Yep, just use this episode to strike up a little conversation in the family group chat. They'd probably love to hear from you. Maybe I'll tell my parents that I'm on a podcast. Let's roll the credits. Emily Milliron is our executive producer.

Raymond Lue is our producer. Olivia Graham is our associate producer. Drew Magner is our technical director. Billy Minino is on audio. Hair and makeup is worried about their legacy. Devin Emery is our chief content officer and our show is a production of Morning Brew. Great show today, Neil. Let's run it back tomorrow. Hey, Mama.

Thanks for making all my favorite recipes. Hi Ma, Ma. Thanks for your unfiltered advice. Hi, Mom. Thanks for always being by the phone. Hey, Mom. Happy Mother's Day. When you ship UPS Air at the UPS Store, your items arrive on time or your money back. Guaranteed at no extra cost. exclusively at the UPS store UPS store U.S. retail locations. Visit the UPS store.com slash air shipping for full details. Terms and conditions apply. Send your Mother's Day gifts at the UPS store and we'll get your gratitude there on time.