Morning Brew Daily - Mug Shot Merch Takes Over the Internet & SpaceX Sued by the DOJ

Episode Date: August 25, 2023

Episode 133: Neal and Toby discuss how former President Donald Trump's mug shot took over the internet on Thursday evening and how Etsy sellers are making money off of the merch. They also explain why the DOJ is suing SpaceX over discriminatory hiring practices and what a weekend in Jackson Hole looks like for the Federal Reserve. Plus, Subway sells to a private equity firm and which companies are the stock and dog of the week. Finally, this weekend could be your chance to look for the Loch Ness Monster. Listen to Morning Brew Daily Here: https://link.chtbl.com/MBD Watch Morning Brew Daily Here: https://www.youtube.com/@MorningBrewDailyShow Listen to Money with Katie Here: https://chartable.com/podcasts/the-money-with-katie-show Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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Good morning brew daily show. I'm Neil Fryman. And I'm Toby Howell. On today's pod, Toby and I can't teach you how to fly fish, but we can get you prepared for Jerome Powell's big speech in Jackson Hole. And the government takes a swipe at Elon Musk over SpaceX's hiring practices. Then Donald Trump's mugshot finally dropped last night, and the memes and T-shirt sales were afloan. Plus, cancel all your weekend plans because the largest Lochness monster hunt in 50 years is going down in the Scottish Highlands tomorrow. It's Friday, August 25th.

Let's ride. two things. One, I could totally teach people how to fly fish. You went one. I've been twice. Okay. I'm an expert now. And then two, it's Friday. So let's do our Friday segment. Fast week, slow week. Which one was it for you? To me, this was a fast week because I've been looking forward to this weekend for a long time. My buddy is getting married in New Jersey and a lot of my college friends are flying in that I haven't seen in a while. And I just love seeing old friends because you don't miss a beat. Like after five or ten years, if you were good friends with them, long time ago and you just start talking again and it's like no time has ever passed and I love that

feeling. Someone needs to do a spreadsheet of how many weddings or bachelor parties. This podcast has gone to this year. It's been truly outrageous. My week was slow. I have nothing to look forward to this weekend. The track and field world championships are happening. Some good Premier League. So I'll have a good weekend regardless. Shilling is fine. Yeah, that's what I need. All right. Let's get into our top story of the day. Neil Donald Trump, star of Home Alone 2 and former president of the United States has had his mugshot taken and the internet went wild. As a reminder, Trump was booked at Atlanta's Fulton County Jail last night, where he turned himself in for allegedly conspiring with 18 others to reverse the 2020 election results in Georgia.

After he made bail, he left, but the picture got out as to the details of his booking, where he was listed at 6.3, 215 pounds. The internet, love that. Neil, there's so much to talk about when it comes to Trump's fourth arrest of the year in terms of the charges themselves and what it means for the broader presidential race. But I want to actually start with the business angle of this, and that is how much money Etsy sellers are going to make off this picture. For months, people have been raking in money from fake mugshot merch, but now that the real one is here, it's basically like their Super Bowl. Look, I don't know anyone who would actually buy one of these shirts, but they are going crazy. And the thing about this is this Trump mugshot will be used by both sides

to further their agenda because it is, it's really the power of a picture. And it's so incredible how one picture can be used to further your agenda or to solidify your position or to show your allegiance. So you have obviously like the Trump resistance people who are using it as a little vindication to say, this guy has committed so many crimes. I'm so glad we finally get to see his mugshot. And then on the other hand, you know, the Trump campaign has been using his indictments as a fundraising tool for months and pictures, fake pictures. of his mugshot. So now that they have the real one, you can be sure that they're going to use this as marketing collateral to raise a lot of money for his campaign. And we saw it literally

instantly last night. You had Donald Trump Jr. tweeted out a picture of the free Trump collection. And then Trump actually used last night to make his triumphant return to Twitter slash X. He tweeted out a link to his campaign page with a picture of the mugshot. So I don't know if I expected it to be used this quickly, but they clearly are capitalizing on it for political value and also to fundraise off the back of it. There was an interview with Etsy sellers saying, like, this is going to be the best-selling t-shirt for a long time. And they had already been talking to their manufacturers. They had already got designs ready. So as soon as that mugshot was released, which everybody was anticipating. And there's another, you know, angle here of misinformation

spreading on the internet because in the hour before Trump, the actual mugshot was released, a fake one spread. Well, lots of fake ones. And because, Also, AI has been, of course, we have to talk about AI in this. There's been AI Trump mugshots photos circulating around the internet. So yesterday on Twitter, it was legitimately confusing for a little bit because, yeah, the one picture really got a lot of steam. But then I also saw other AI generated ones. So it was interesting to see just like so many parts of the discourse over the last six months that we've been talking about all combined into one story at the same time. The internet was on fire.

Do you think the Trump returning to Twitter will have any bearing on the, you know, X-verse threads debate, whether, you know, this might stop threads in his tracks because as the campaign heats up, people are going to want to know what Trump has to say for better or for worse. And if he starts posting on X, then, you know, why even be on threads if you're only going to see it, you know, a few minutes after the fact and not be up to date? Well, I think X is just a magnitude larger than threads already. and I think this is only going to cement its daily active user gap that it has over it. So yes, I actually do think it will play a role.

And then just to kind of put a bow on everything and talk about the actual, a lot of people were wondering why we got a mugshot now, even though this is his fourth arrest. And it's because Trump avoided a mugshot in New York, Miami, in D.C. Because mugshots are usually used as a means to identify detainees. And those jails were like, everyone knows what Trump looks like. But the Fulton County Sheriff said that he intended to treat Trump like anybody else. So if you're wondering why this was the first time we got a mugshot, that's part of the reason why. Yeah, and there's also going to be cameras allowed in the courtroom.

And there's just going to be a lot more coverage, a lot more visual and transparency around this particular case than the others. So expect a lot more images to come out. And as you're strolling down Myrtle Beach, you can be sure the vendors will have the mugshot there. Oh, my gosh, yes. Okay, moving on. SpaceX is in the U.S. government's doghouse. for not giving everyone a fair shake when applying to work at the company. The DOJ sued SpaceX over hiring discrimination yesterday, claiming that from 2018 to 2022,

Elon Musk's rocket company discouraged asylum seekers and refugees from applying and refused to consider them because of their citizenship status. Now, SpaceX and Elon Musk have not been quiet about hiring only Americans. Musk has said multiple times in the past in interviews and in tweets that SpaceX can't hire foreign nationals unless they have a green card because SpaceX works with advanced weapons technology and a law known as the international traffic in arms regulations prevents SpaceX from hiring people born elsewhere. The government doesn't want sophisticated American military technology falling into the hands of an adversary after all. But the DOJ says, uh, not true, Elon. The law you mentioned does

not apply to refugees or asylum seekers who can definitely work at your company. There's nothing on the books that's stopping you from hiring them. And the feds accused SpaceX of systematically taking actions to thwart them from applying. They cited one example from 2020 in which a SpaceX engineer posted a job announcement in a career fair chat that said, sadly must be a U.S. citizen to apply, which isn't true. What stood out to you here? What stood out to me is just the risk reward that these aerospace and these rocket companies face when hiring because a lot of their revenue comes from government contracts. And if you violate ITAR, which is that international traffic in arms regulations,

then you stand to lose those contracts. So I see why SpaceX was erring on the side of only hiring Americans because if you mess up, if you have an accidental I-TAR value violation, you could lose a big Department of Defense contract or a big NASA contract. So I see where he's coming from. But also, I really wonder, did they really not know that they were in violation and that this law didn't apply to refugees? Or were they being intentionally a abuse?

That's the big question. That's what this case is trying to understand is whether this was a systematic play to not hire refugees or asylum seekers, even if SpaceX knew full well that they could hire them. Right, because Musk has not been quiet about it. You said it. He's tweeted about it. He's been on multiple, there's multiple sound bites of him saying that, yes, like if anyone is confused why we only hire Americans, this is why we have to do it. So it leads me to believe that maybe he was uninformed or, yeah, I mean, I guess this is what the. It could be intentionally misleading.

Right, exactly. All signs point to probably a settlement out of court for this. Also, Tesla has a, I mean, Elon Musk says 25 to 30% of Tesla's engineering staff is born outside the country. So he was making a distinguish, you know, he was distinguishing between SpaceX, which works on rockets and works with the military and Tesla, which makes cars. And he says, like, we hire a lot of foreign people over there. By the way, a lot of people think that these ITAR regulations are anachronistic at this point

and that it leaves a lot of talented foreigners on the sidelines. And so a lot of people are calling for reforms to this. So maybe this does lead to a little bit more lenient rules around it. Because, yeah, you're excluding a large part of the rest of the world, basically, when you put these intense kind of restrictions on who military can work with. Okay. So we'll see what happens there. Let's move on to our next story.

There is a big event happening out west where a bunch of people are getting together, spending some time outdoors, reflecting on shared principles of free expression, and talking about different ways to formulate our economy. No, I am not talking about Burning Man. I see Toby nodding his head in. I knew where we were going. In knowing agreement. It is the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium. Way more exciting. No, this is a huge deal. While the metaphor is definitely overused, the Jackson Hole meeting is the Super Bowl for central bankers. More than a hundred of them come from all over the world to discuss the most pressing problems with the global economy. and through their speeches set the tone for the year to come.

The main event, the Rihanna show of this Super Bowl, is Fed-chair Jerome Powell's speech later this morning. Investors will be glued to what he has to say about inflation. And if you don't believe me that people pay attention. Powell's Jackson Hole speech rocked markets last year. The Dow plunged a thousand points after Powell warned the Fed would jack up interest rates and American households would feel pain because back then inflation was raging. This year, with the economic landscape looking pretty good,

inflation's on the way down and interest rates at 22-year highs. Powell is expected to keep things a bit more chill in his speech today. It's probably just going to take out a five wood, try to hit it down the middle of the fairway with a more nuanced approach, arguing that the Fed's rate hikes are working, but the job to stamp out inflation isn't done. Yeah, I think some of the things that people are expecting is he's not going to necessarily explicitly say if the Fed will raise interest rates next month because we're actually not really hanging on his every word, like in previous Fed meetings, but it will kind of talk to how long it will keep rates high and just, yeah, the general vibe.

General vibe going forward. And I also do think, though, that the 70s have definitely scarred the Fed because they've done victory laps before where inflation was really high. They did these rate hikes. They got it under control and only for it to immediately spike again. They had to reverse what they were saying. So I definitely think you'll see a lot of kind of like hand-wavy. stuff and allusions to stuff, but no explicit guidance of going forward because they've been

burned in the past. They've been burned in the past. Let's do a quick check on inflation right now. So interest rates have risen to a 22 year high. They are so high. Inflation is coming down. It's at 3.2% now compared to a peak of 9.1% last summer when Powell had that very forceful addressing. We got to do something about this. We're going to throw everything at this. But it's still 3.2% is not 2%. And so the talk in economic circles is this last mile, right? They talk about it in delivery. Like the last mile is always the hardest. And so, you know, you have a few people like Larry Summers warning, the former Treasury Secretary who warned of inflation in the beginning before anyone was talking about it, saying the Fed's got to keep its gas on foot on the gas to make sure that

inflation actually comes down to 2% because like you said, it could flare up again. For sure. Okay, Neil, before we jump into our next story, we're going to take a quick break. It's time to refresh your yard during spring backyard days at the Home Depot. Get low prices guaranteed on propane grills starting at $179, like the next grill 3-burner gas grill. Or get $50 off a select Weber Spirit grill and bring big flavor to your backyard. Then set the scene with Hampton Bay string lights that bring it all together. Shop spring backyard days for seven days at the Home Depot. Now through May 6th.

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See Verizon.com for details. Neil, this next story hits near and dear to my heart as a long-term subway apologists and fan, but my beloved subway chain, the chain that brought us the $5 foot long, the chain that brought us that sweet, sweet smell of fresh-baked bread,

has sold after more than five decades of private family ownership. The price of the deal wasn't immediately disclosed, but the Wall Street Journal estimated it to be in the $9.6 billion range. Subway has been the subject of sales rumors for years now, as the sandwich giant has struggled to adapt to increase competition in changing consumer taste in the last decade. Recently, it's revamped its menu, ditched the $5 footlong, and installed deli cutters in its stores to offer fresh slice meat. Game changer.

But, Neil, the most interesting part of this deal to me is the PE firm that bought at Rourke Capital. Rourke has an unreal lineup of restaurant brands already under its control. we're talking Duncan, Baskin Robbins, Sonic, Arby's, Buffalo Wild Wings, Jimmy Johns, Annie Annes, Carville ice cream, Cinebun, Moes, Schlotzklee's, and more. I have to stop there because I am running out of breath. But this is kind of the goat of restaurant-focused PE firms. Do we think this is a good match? Sure. I mean, it seems like they have expertise.

The one thing that Subway seems to not be good at is it's franchise base, right? So it's franchisee base. They do not have a lot of wealthy franchisees that can revamp stores, have the resources to make things look good. That's kind of what you want in your franchise e-base. And Rourke does seem to have the expertise that could do that. So right now, Subway has way too much real estate. I mean, we were talking earlier this week and talking about retail vacancies and how

in 2008, there was way too much retail space that we knew what to do with in the United States and slowly that's been filling in. Well, Subway has the same problem because what? They have 20,000 locations in the U.S., which is 7,000 more than McDonald's. I was driving in rural America, right? You're just driving down in these small towns. You go to like a little intersection. And when you get there, you don't see McDonald's.

You don't see Burger King. You see a subway. Like it's a subway and a dollar general. That's every small town. And I love it. So it's really incredible to me how much real estate subway has in the U.S. But analysts say that it's way too much. And they need to kind of pare that down, make their stores like a little more, I guess, appetizing.

And get, you know, get ink deep. deals with well more capitalized franchisees so they can actually execute this mission of revitalizing their stores. Yeah. And I mean, it has been reducing its store footprint in recent years. It closed 571 units last year, more than 1,600 restaurants in 2020. So we definitely have been going back from the peak. It peaked actually in 2012 was its big year. That was when revenue hit $18 billion. Last year, revenue was only $9.8 billion. So you see, it's, been in a steady decline for a decade. Turns out that $5 footlong meal, by the way, might have been net negative because of the perception and also the pressure it put on franchisees

profit margins. Also, you have the Jared from Subway PR debacle. So it has not been a, it's not been good to my King Subway over the last decade. What I found interesting is they, you know, the industry divides fast food into various categories. So there are burgers, pizza, chicken, and sandwich chains. And sandwich chains are fourth relative to those other ones, thanks to largely due to Subway slowing sales. So I didn't know that. I know.

Yeah, because Subway is the sandwich industry, no matter, I mean, Jimmy John's... Jersey Mikes is coming for it. Jersey Mikes is growing much faster, but it's still... Subway did nearly four times the U.S. sales of Jersey Mikes last year, so it's still the giant in the room. So the industry goes as Subway goes.

So hopefully Rour can kind of turn around. All right, before we move on, we all know the meme of the Taco Bell Pee, the combination Taco Bell Pizza Hut. So now that, you know, Subway is going to be in the same brand family as Duncan and Culvers and Jimmy Johns and all of that, you're designing a store. What two brands are you putting together in the same location? Okay, I want to pair Culvers with something because Culver's is so underrated. I went to school in the Midwest for a little bit. I've spent time in Michigan, so I literally love Culver's. So maybe that cheese curds.

With some ice cream. No, but they serve ice cream already. So I don't want to double up on them. So it might be weird, but maybe like a pizza place. So you have like the cheese curds, the pizza vibes. I don't know. Whatever it is, it's going to be extremely bad for your health and your cholesterol. But I love Culvers.

A new era for Subway. Let's head to our Friday segment, Stock of the Week, dog of the week. We'll discuss one stock that's been tasting as sweet as honey and another that puckers you up like a jolly rancher. Before we start, per tradition, I have to kick it to Toby for a spiel on why you shouldn't listen to us. We are not financial dividers, so we are just humble podcasters. So please do not take any of this as financial advice. That's my favorite part of Friday shows. All right.

Let's go to our stock of the week. It's a biotech company Moderna, which rose more than 6% in the past four days. And when a company that makes a vaccine gets named a stock of the week can only tell you one thing. COVID is back. A bunch of people I know have gotten it recently and nationwide COVID hospitalization. are up two-thirds since June to about 10,000 people, though that is still far less than last summer's 40,000. With the upticking cases, investors are betting on increased demand for booster shots from these vaccine makers in the fall, propelling shares of Moderna and its peers like Novavax

higher. But if you want a booster that's been reformulated to tackle newer variants, you'll have to wait a few weeks. Updated shots have been moved to an annual cycle and push this fall to coincide with flu shot season. Public health experts are hoping you'll just get both jabs in one visit to Walgreens. Yeah, Moderna's up this week, but if you look up in the, if you zoom out a little bit, modern is down around 40% this year. Pfizer's also down 28%. Because a lot of WHO officials are just saying, we are, this is a quote from the Dutch

phyrologist who advises the WHO, we are in a very different phase of the pandemic. Then, yeah, we're in a very different phase of the pandemic. Basically, like the vaccines have done their work and they've, Sorry, I think it's the W-HO. The Who? You can call it The Who? Really? I think so.

All right, we're going to hear in the YouTube comments. I'm pretty sure it's the WHO. Okay. See, I like the WHO better. I like The WHO better. Education. Oh my God. The World Health Organization.

Fine, Neil. Neil was giggling at me that whole time. Okay, the Who is a great band. We know that, yeah. But again, let's zoom back into this story. Worldwide testing is also way down. So the WHO said, oh my gosh, WHO said COVID testing has declined 90% worldwide from its peak. Same in the U.S.

So it's definitely, it's tough to get a sense of where the pandemic is right now or where COVID levels are at right now, simply because testing is down so much. To me, when you look at pharma stocks, it's so interesting because you can tell which ones have the anti-obesity drugs and which ones are just reliant on COVID vaccines because Pfizer, yes, is down 30% today and they don't have like a compelling anti-obesity drug. Meanwhile, Eli Lilly has Manjaro. It's up 50%. We've talked about Novo Nordisk, which makes Ozempic and Wagovi, and that's up 35%.

So Pfizer has been getting crushed in sales because demand for vaccines has gone down. I don't think with each new booster that gets put out, there is lower demand and lower pickup. So Pfizer needs to get its act together. And Moderna, I don't know what it's going to do. It needs to get more drugs in the pipeline because this is not going to be a sustainable thing going forward. Yeah, it can't be a one-trick, bony. Okay, let's move on to our dog of the week, Neil, which is Dollar Tree. It had a rough one in the market yesterday as the value retailer struggles to combat the same problem other retailers are

facing theft or shrink, as it's called, in the industry. Its stock fell over 12% yesterday after Dollar Tree CFO Jeff Davis said that shrink was eating into its margins. So the company is taking some anti-thetheth measures, like moving certain items behind checkout counters and removing some offerings all together. But the most extreme measure is putting some items behind lock and key, something all too familiar to anyone who shopped at Walgreens or CVS recently. Neil, just to zoom out, this is an industry-wide problem that retailers are trying to figure out how to solve. Earlier this week, Dick's sporting goods cited theft as a main reason why profits plunged, even as sales grew, and others like Target, Walmart, and Home Depot have also called out pressures

from shrink. Tough time. Yeah, it seems like dollar stores in general are to to violence and theft. Dollar General employees have been so angry. They staged like a protest outside the company's headquarters because 49 people have been killed at Dollar General stores since 2014. So these places are just not, you know, not particularly safe. And you've been seeing an increase in theft and it seems like dollar stores in general get hit particularly hard from this. Right. And this is the problem, though, is that locked cases, even though they help reduce theft, are really bad for business. They can cause sales to drop 15 to 25%. That comes from the CEO of an anti-theft company. So it really is, it's kind of, you have to choose one or the other. You're in a

rock and a hard place because at the one hand, you have theft eating into margins on the other side. You're going to cause your consumers to buy less in your store. So it really is just a tough predicament that these retailers find themselves in. The reason for the uptick is that it seems like, it seems like this is the theory is that there's these organized gangs that go in and, like, swipe a lot of stuff off the shelf, and then it's, and then it's very easy to sell the stuff online. So they're saying that the ability to sell it online is, is really the key here. But there's a lot of skepticism towards this because you can't verify the amount of shrink. It's only on the retailers to report it. So a third-party analyst can't say, you can't really

evaluate it. And then Walgreens, which complained a lot about theft, said earlier this year, maybe we cried too much last year and said it wasn't as big of a problem. So there is like a fair amount of skepticism towards. It's kind of like the, you can always say on the earnings call, well, theft's eating into our profit margins, but you're right. It's a little bit opaque. Okay, let's end the show with a very fun one today, Neil. This weekend, hundreds of Lochness monster enthusiasts will travel to the famous lock nestled in the Scottish Highlands for the biggest monster hunt in over 50 years. They are going all out. We're talking using hydrophones to the tech sounds underwater, drones equipped with infrared imaging, and of course, a low-grade camera

that can only take weirdly grainy picks of the alleged monster. But whether they find Nessie or not, I'm just happy that people are coming together to keep this legend alive. I have to know, though, where do you fall on the Lochness monster debate, Neil? I don't really care whether it's true, but I'm just going to use the opportunity to post up on a, you know, on a nice little raft and with a bunch of beers and just like gates out over the water. And if I see something, I see something. If I don't, I don't, but either way, it's a good time to hang out at this lake in the late summer. So I'm all for this. I don't like how they call it a hunt. That scares me. Right. Because Nessie should be protected if she's found. People do love Nessie and they love

the legend. It's also low-key, a very big business for the Scottish economy. A 2018 study found that it generates around $54 million per year for the Scottish economy. It's not nothing. I mean, it's not huge. So, yeah, 100 people are jumping out there tomorrow. which I think that number is going to be underreported. I hope more than 100 show up. And then thousands more are tuning in online to help. To me, though, I'm all in on Nessie. Lock Ness is 755 feet deep.

It's a big lake. It contains more water than all the lakes and whales, all the lakes in England and Wales combined. So there's a lot of water in there. And then also, there was a 2020 drone video that came out that showed a large figure. So listen, listen, I'm not saying anything, but there's been a little bit of evidence

recently that's come out. So I hope they find something. Can you imagine if we got that in the new cycle? What would it be? I don't know. Maybe I'm so bored. Like I just, there's no chance. I believe in science. I don't know. In 2019, they did a, scientists did a sweep of it and they tested DNA samples. The lock nest search has got way more annoying and like technical over the past few years rather than just kind of everyone taking out their binoculars and doing what I want to do. It's good. But they analyzed DNA and water samples and they found literally nothing except a bunch of eels. They's found nothing yet. That's all I'll say.

I'm flying to Scotland. Let's do this thing, Nessie Hunters. Toby, you are feeling lucky. Okay, that is our show for today. Have a great weekend, everyone. As always, you can direct your fan mail or your hate mail to Morningbrewdaily at Morningbrew.com. You can let us know if it's the Who or the WHO.

Obviously, that is a raging debate here. Let's roll the credits. Emily Millarine is our editor and producer. Uber Batista. Welcome. And Raymond Lou, our associate producers. Yuchinawa Ogu is our technical director. Billy Minino is on audio.

We are organizing the biggest search for hair and makeup in 50 years. So come to New York City next weekend if you want to help. Devin Emery is our chief content officer and our show is a production of Morning Brew. Great show today, Neil. I wish you all well. All pay off your home, travel for life, drive a Ferrari. In celebration of the world premiere of the Monopoly Big Board Bucks slot machine by aristocrat gaming, Yamava Resort and Casino at San Manuel is giving one person a $1.6 million dream package.

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