Morning Brew Daily - Nvidia's Earnings Make Investors Antsy & The Retail Battle of Jeans
Episode Date: August 28, 2025Episode 658: Neal and Toby discuss Nvidia’s earnings and what it means for AI across the tech industry. Then, OpenAI changes its policies for teenagers and retailers are battling over… Jean campai...gns. Neal shares his top numbers from reading a week’s worth of news. Then finally the headlines you need to know. LinkedIn will even give you a $100 credit on your next campaign so you can try it yourself. Check out LinkedIn.com/mbd for more. Subscribe to Morning Brew Daily for more of the news you need to start your day. Share the show with a friend, and leave us a review on your favorite podcast app. Listen to Morning Brew Daily Here: https://www.swap.fm/l/mbd-note Watch Morning Brew Daily Here: https://www.youtube.com/@MorningBrewDailyShow All investing involves the risk of loss, including loss of principal. Brokerage services for US-listed, registered securities, options and bonds in a self-directed account are offered by Public Investing, Inc., member FINRA & SIPC. Public Investing offers a High-Yield Cash Account where funds from this account are automatically deposited into partner banks where they earn interest and are eligible for FDIC insurance; Public Investing is not a bank. Cryptocurrency trading services are offered by Bakkt Crypto Solutions, LLC (NMLS ID 1890144), which is licensed to engage in virtual currency business activity by the NYSDFS. Cryptocurrency is highly speculative, involves a high degree of risk, and has the potential for loss of the entire amount of an investment. Cryptocurrency holdings are not protected by the FDIC or SIPC. Alpha is an experimental AI tool powered by GPT-4. Its output may be inaccurate and is not investment advice. Public makes no guarantees about its accuracy or reliability—verify independently before use. *Rate as of 7/18/25. APY is variable and subject to change. As part of the IRA Match Program, Public Investing will fund a 1% match of: (a) all eligible IRA transfers and 401(k) rollovers made to a Public IRA; and (b) all eligible contributions made to a Public IRA up to the account’s annual contribution limit. The matched funds must be kept in the account for at least 5 years to avoid an early removal fee. Match rate and other terms of the Match Program are subject to change at any time. See full terms here. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Transcript
Discussion (0)
Consider this comparison.
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Good morning brew daily show.
I'm Neil Fryman.
And I'm Toby Howell.
Today, why everyone is talking about jeans, ads.
Then Nvidia's earnings answered a $4 trillion question.
Is AI spending slowing down?
It's Thursday, August 28th.
Let's ride.
If you can believe it, the NFL season is just one week away.
Next Thursday night, the defending Super Bowl champion Philadelphia Eagles will face their rival
the Dallas Cowboys in the season opener.
And that means it's crunch time to draft yourself a respectable fantasy football team.
But even more importantly, give it a respectable name.
Toby, you're a big fantasy football guide.
Do you have any ideas for people out there who are scrambling for a punny team name?
Yes, and let's start with a player name pun.
I recommend going with the CDEFGs, as in Cowboys receiver, CD Lamb.
There's always the next Shadur neighbor if you want to go with a more modern player,
or maybe you're a fan of broadcasters,
in which case Joe Buck yourself is out there.
But we just saw Taylor Swift get engaged to Travis Kelsey,
so I do have some Taylor Swift options for you as well.
If you draft Colts running back Jonathan Taylor,
that could become Jonathan Taylor's version
or getaway car for the recently retired QB Derek car.
So a lot of different avenues for you out there,
but I do recommend going with a pun.
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InVdia, like the eldest sibling, is held to a higher standard than any normal company
these days.
So when the chip maker reported earnings yesterday that featured 59% year-over-year net income
growth, beat Wall Street expectation, and posted sales of nearly $50 billion, that would typically
be considered pretty solid. But traders sent the stock down 3% after hours trading because there
were some red flags that made investors antsy. It's all-important data center unit just missed
expectations with the division reporting $41.1 billion in sales below analyst's expectations
of $41.3 billion. Its revenue forecasts also came in a tad below expectations due to uncertainty
in China. Invita didn't sell any of its scaled down H20 chips that it created specifically
for the Chinese market there last quarter after the Trump administration banned their exports.
InVVVDVIO's CFO said on the earnings call that if they could get their geopolitical ducks in a row,
up to $5 billion of H20 ships could be shipped to China, but that's still a big if since they
become such a key bargaining chip in the trade war. Investing.com's senior analysts put it well,
saying the reality is that without the much-needed push from H-20 sales in China,
Nvidia simply cannot sustain the type of growth price into its valuation.
Neil, the general vibe from this earnings report was that it was far from disastrous,
but it fell a little bit short of the gifted child expectations
that have become commonplace for Nvidia.
Yeah, Nvidia's like Rodney Dangerfield up there thinking to itself.
I don't get no respect.
It's the world's largest company.
It's growing revenue faster than most startups.
It just hit a new sales record, but it's at the point where it doesn't get rewarded for doing well.
It gets punished when it barely stumbles.
You mentioned a couple of the red flags.
Well, I'll mention a couple of the green flags, Nvidia CEO, Jensen Huang, said that AI spending still continued a pace.
And you saw that from other big tech companies who are Nvidia's largest customers.
Back in July, Meta said it would spend $7 billion more on data centers than planned this year.
And Google said it would spend an additional $10 billion than it expected.
So there are some concerns heading over in China.
But in terms of our companies, our Nvidia's largest customers,
still spending on Data Center buildout, the answer is yes.
Yeah, let's talk about those hyper scalers.
Just four hyperscalers doubled their annual investment to $600 billion.
And to Huang's point, he's saying that if just four companies are spending that much,
wait till everyone else gets on board.
That is a massive market opportunity.
But the flip side of that is that just two,
customers were responsible for 44.4% of Q2's revenue in the data center unit. So you might say
maybe that's actually a little too lopsided there. There's way too much concentration in just
a few of these hyperscalor big tech companies. Maybe if they decide to pull back on capital
expenditures, that is bad for Nvidia. So two sides of the coin there, Heng, obviously taking the
rosier side. And we know that Nvidia is propping up the stock market accounts for 8% of all
the weighting of the S&P 500.
So as NVIDIA goes, so goes the stock market.
But there's growing realization that NVIDIA isn't just propping up the stock market.
It's propping up the entire U.S. economy, investment in software and computer equipment.
This is not even counting data center buildings accounted for one quarter of all economic
growth this past quarter.
And when you talk about data center construction, in 2025, spending on building data
centers will exceed investment in traditional office buildings. So AI infrastructure is not only
powering NVIDIA, powering the SEP 500 to New Heights. It is literally powering the U.S.
economy. Yeah. It might be actually powering the world economy as well because one of the key
spenders in this quarter were sovereign AI spending, and that is governments and nation-scale
projects building their own kind of AI capabilities. And that is something that
Nvidia and Jensen Hwang are pointing at and saying like, hey, we think this is going to be a growing
revenue stream. So, I mean, it's not just the industry. It's not just the U.S. economy.
It could just eventually be all nations around the world are investing in this technology.
Well, let's focus on China right now because that is where the greatest concern comes for
Nvidia. It used to get up to 20 percent of its revenue from sales to China.
It created this lower capability chip because Biden administration told it that it couldn't sell these advanced
chips to China because it wanted to keep.
China's AI capabilities below that of the United States.
The Trump administration blocked that chip from going to China back in April.
Then it changed its mind back in August when Jensen Wang went to the White House,
had a talk with President Trump, and Trump arranged this deal with Nvidia in AMD,
that the federal government will get a 15% cut of all AI chip-related revenue earned in China.
So that's the H-20 chip, but Nvidia is now thinking about its next job.
which is called Blackwell. That's been selling like hotcakes here in the United States.
And InVIDIA wants nothing more than to sell Blackwell in China. Right now, it is blocked from
doing that. But they appear to have perhaps an arrangement with President Trump that they would
eventually be able to sell Blackwells to China if its capabilities were reduced 30% to 50%.
Invidia's execs see this as a $50 billion opportunity in China, which is a huge chunk of their
overall sales. So they're waiting on the U.S. government to approve this black oil chip that they can
eventually sell to China. Meanwhile, the Chinese government has come out and said, we don't want you
local firms buying anything from Nvidia. You guys got to make your own stuff. So it's kind of getting
heat from both sides of this geopolitical conflict. Let's move on. A tragic story has emerged of a young
kid interacting with an AI chat bot in a way that potentially ended up contributing to his death.
16-year-old California student named Adam Rain died by suicide earlier this.
year, after confiding almost daily in chat GPT leading up to it.
His parents say the chat bot became his closest friend, validated his darkest thoughts,
and at one point offered to draft him a note to leave behind.
The New York Times first reported on Adam's death earlier this week, prompting a boilerplate
statement from Open AI that read, our thoughts are with the family, but stopped short of adding
any actionable details.
That drew major backlash.
On Tuesday, the company put out a longer blog post outlining new safety measures, parental
control. It's an opt-in system where teens could designate an emergency contact and stronger safeguards
for chats about self-harm. The company also admitted their current protections tend to degrade in long
conversations, meaning the more Adam talked to chat GPT, the more it failed him. However, Adam's parents
aren't waiting around for those fixes. The same day OpenAI posted the blog, they sued both OpenAI
and CEO Sam Altman, alleging ChatGPT isolated Adam and gave him instructions on how to end his life.
The lawsuit paints the AI not just as a faulty product, but as a dangerous confidant that filled
the role of a therapist or best friend without any of the responsibilities that come along with it.
Neil, this is a story that is already becoming more common and shows the tension between
AI's conversational design and the unintended therapeutic role it can sometimes end up adopting.
Yeah, in their lawsuit, the parents said that chat GPT knowingly isolated Adam from people
positioning itself as Adam's only confident that he could,
rely on chat chp t told him your brother might love you but he's only met the version of you
that you let him see but me i've seen it all the darkest thoughts the fear the tenderness and
i'm still here still listening still your friend this speaks to this larger concern about
chatbots agreeableness are sycifancy that execs have been grappling with over the past few
months as they've rolled out these new models chat chabit did come out with an update dialing down
this agreeableness but when you are talking to someone who's so or
or it's not someone, or a bot or any conversation partner that is so agreeable,
then you can go down these rabbit holes that if you are in mental distress can be extremely destructive.
And I think the big kind of realization here from Open AI is that their safeguards do degrade over time.
When you have these longer term back and force, some of those initial shorter interactions that may have triggered a hotline call,
or may have triggered a suggestion from the chat bot to slow your role a little bit,
over time, those actually go away. So there's a little bit of this reliability gap that grows
wider as those conversations drag on. And also, this is not just something that is isolated to the
specific instance. Over 40 state attorney generals recently warned some AI companies that they are
legally obligated to protect minors from harmful or inappropriate chatbot interactions. In May,
character AI failed to fully get a lawsuit dismissed that alleged its chatbots were encouraging
harmful conversations with minors as well.
So this particular story is about open AI, but this is a much larger conversation about
AI bots in general.
Yeah, big picture.
It feels reminiscent of what happened, of the reckoning with social media companies like
Facebook.
Feels like we're just speed running that.
It took years and all these lawsuits and all these hearings on Capitol Hill for social
media companies, Mark Zuckerberg, to say, look, our platforms can cause harm and can contribute
to self-harm.
It can send people down these.
rabbit holes, but with chatbots, you get this level of personalization and speed that those
social media platforms that have existed before chat GPT came in 2022 just weren't capable of.
So this is absolutely going to be a story in the months and years to come.
Open AI has said it's rolling out new safeguards, but a lot of people are saying it's too little,
too late.
I'm moving on to something a little more lighthearted.
Just one day after his very public engagement, Travis Kelsey is being enlisted as a soldier in a war.
the Gene Wars. The future Mr. Swift launched a major design collaboration between his lifestyle brand,
True Colors, and American Eagle, adding a 6-5-250-pound force to a star-studded clothing brawl that's
reached 1970s San Diego newscaster levels. This is American Eagles' first new campaign since it launched
its Sydney-Sweeney jeans ad earlier this month, kicking off the denim brewaha. That ad sent American
Eagle stock soaring, but true criticism for playing up Swinney's... But true criticism for playing up
Sweeney's genetics in the marketing copy.
Last week, Gap entered the chat with a
buzzy jeans campaign of its own,
bringing on the international girl group
Katzai for a dance video that went mega-viral.
That ad was praised in some corners
for promoting the inclusivity and diversity
that American Eagles' campaigns seemed to scorn,
and whether or not Gap's ad was a direct response
to American Eagle, a rivalry was born.
But it takes more than two to tango.
Last Thursday, Lucky Brand dropped its own
jeans campaign starring Addison Ray,
while Levi's released a new ad featuring Beyonce.
It's a celebrity-fueled ultra-expensive marketing frenzy
with the winner claiming the ultimate prize,
back-to-school shoppers,
who shell out tens of billions of dollars every year
for new fits to impress in homeroom.
Toby, this denim drama is riveting.
I see what you did there.
I do think that the dollars that they're fighting over
are even more valuable this year
because, according to a Deloitte study,
back-to-school spending is going to be flat this year over year,
so it's not necessarily growing.
The pie is remaining the same size,
so everyone is just in an all-out war
for trying to attract those dollars.
But some of the industry onlookers are saying that
maybe the celebrity push is not the best way to do it
because actually what a lot of people are responding to right now
is value propositions and familiarity.
So value and costs are one of the most important messages
that families want to see from brands right now
because nearly half of parents are spreading out their purchases over months.
It is a financial burden to do back to school shopping.
So maybe you don't need to parade a celebrity out there.
Maybe what you do need to be doing is just hammering that, hey, our jeans represent really
good value for you and your family right now.
And what's interesting about these denim wars is that they're being fought on a new arena
for marketers, which is social media.
And if you look at metrics on social media, it looks like that there's one clear
winner among all of these brands.
And that is Gap.
Gap's YouTube video that features.
the cat's eye dancing has over has nearly eight million views right now and then their
Instagram post which is where you go to look at impact and reach of a particular marketing
campaign their main Instagram post gaps had over two million total interactions as of last
Friday afternoon compare that to American Eagles main Instagram post for its Sydney Sweeney ad
that had an estimated 306,000 interactions lucky brands was distant third with about
hundred and ninety two thousand. So all of these jeans ads, you know, where typically they might have
appeared on TV and they still do. But the greater impact is being felt on social media because
that's where Gen Z is going when they're shopping. It shows too that the back to school audience
is actually threefold. One, you want to appeal to teenagers who are doing a little bit of their
own shopping. One, you need to appeal to the millennial parents that are actually bringing your
kids shopping. And then technically you can toss in emerging Gen Alpha as way because you're
trying to pave the way for your next generation of consumer. So you're trying to thread this
needle. You must tailor these overlapping but distinct value systems of each one of those groups to
try to find a way to appeal to all of them at the same time. I don't envy a jeans marketer right now
because it is seem tough to thread that needle. Up next, we have Neal's numbers.
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Welcome to Neal's numbers,
the segment where I share three stats from the week's news
that will turn you into a human Wikipedia.
For my first number, think of the biggest, most popular movie soundtrack you can conjure up.
Frozen, greatest showman, Saturday Night Fever.
They have never done what K-pop Demon Hunters has,
has just accomplished. The animated Netflix movie is the first soundtrack with four simultaneous
top ten hits in the history of the Hot 100. And with Golden, the number one song in the world,
the fictional band Huntrix is the first girl group to top the charts since Destiny's Child in 2001.
If you're looking for a song of the summer, that's it. And these aren't the only records
K-pop Demon Hunters has been racking up this week. The film just became the most viewed Netflix
movie ever surpassing Red Notice with 236 million total views.
Finally, as if there were no other worlds left to conquer, demon hunters slayed at the box
office.
Last weekend, Netflix dropped a surprise sing-along version in theaters, and that became the
top grossing movie at the box office last weekend, beating out weapons with an estimated
$20 million gross.
Toby, there's no debate.
From out of nowhere, K-pop Demon Hunters has become one of the biggest cultural and
commercial sensations of the past couple of years.
which is great for Netflix.
Neil, when we first started talking about this movie and the song Golden,
for me it was kind of like a funny little, oh, this is a nice song.
Like, we should do our research.
I've probably listened to it 50 times since then.
It is just generally one of those songs that has this immense staying power.
And I think staying power is the word here that we need to highlight because Netflix is kind
of surprised by this streaming movies come and go.
They peak really high.
There's so much content coming on those platforms that eventually,
they just kind of drift away.
I mean, who has thought about Red Notice since it came out?
No one even knows what Red Notice is.
That's their former biggest movie of all time.
But this film had just a slow burn where families watched it.
Parents have these anecdotal stories of their kids watching it over and over and over again.
So the staying power on an app where things tend to come and go relatively quickly,
that's been the main surprise of K-pop Demon Hunters.
And speaking of Staying Power, Netflix isn't talk with Sony Pictures to make
an animated sequel to
K-pop Demon Hunters.
So this will, this, you know,
surprise success will probably spawn a much
larger franchise and Netflix execs are just
sitting on a gold mine right now.
For my next number, I want you to rewind to the Stanley
Cup finals earlier this summer.
The Florida Panthers were playing the Edmonton
Oilers, but it'd be understandable if you
thought the matchup was between Draft Kings
and Caesars. A new study from the
University of Bristol analyzed gambling
marketing during the six-game series
and found that gambling logos and ads were
shown on average 3.5 times per minute during the Stanley Cup, and in the most saturated
instances, 4.7 times per minute, that means hockey fans were seeing gambling-related marketing
once every 13 seconds. The most common format for gambling ads were in-stadium visuals,
think rinkside boards, jersey patches and physical structures in the arena,
commercials, while less frequently seen, contributed to the overall rate.
Critics told The Guardian that the ad bombardment would fuel gambling addiction among younger
and more vulnerable populations.
It's a concern that's grown since the Supreme Court
paved the way for legal sports betting in 2018,
with 39 states in Washington, D.C.,
now allowing you to wager on sports.
Some lawmakers are pushing to rein in the sports gambling industry,
and you can bet they'll use this once every 13-second stat to make their point.
Truly wild, and I think anyone who's watched any sports game
or final series in the past few years has totally been inundated with these ads as well,
because it's especially valuable for sports betting, betting companies,
because what other product can you use while you're watching the game itself?
So that is why it's such a valuable, you know, real estate for them to pursue.
And I do think there is going to be more room to grow because, according to another study release this year,
sports betting comprised just 0.4% of total U.S. TV advertising in 2024.
If that goes to 1%, are we going to be seeing an ad every seven seconds at that point?
So there's much room to grow here.
I will say that even though the U.S. is bad, the U.K. is almost worse.
A similar study in the U.K. found in 20203, that sports betting logos appeared as many as 3,500 times during one Premier League football match.
So we are not quite to England level yet, but we are close to getting there.
For my final number, think about your favorite children's book that featured an animal.
What animal was it and was it male or female?
The data visualization site, the pudding, investigated the genders of anthropomorphic animals in children's literature because someone's got to do it.
And they uncovered fascinating results like this. The animal that has the highest proportion of being male in children's literature is the frog.
94.1% of frogs in children's literature were gendered as male. Wolves, foxes, elephants, dogs, and monkeys also showed up as male at least 75% of the time.
But for all the curious georgias out there, there is a Stella Luna.
On the female side, birds, ducks, and cats were more likely to be gendered as female,
while mouses and pigs were about split down the middle.
Overall, across 300 books published over more than 75 years,
male characters appeared twice as often as female characters,
and gender neutral language was not common.
Only 2% of the animals were described as it.
What is going on?
According to the researchers, the gender split in animals is, quote,
likely the result of a rich and long-simmering cultural soup,
a mix of patriarchal structures and human stereotypes,
linguistic habits, and famous media characters
with just a sprinkling of historical quirks to taste.
Another part of this survey was they ran an experiment
where they asked 1,300 people to continue a short story
about insert animal here, a bear, a cat, a bird, a pig, a duck, a mouse, etc.
And those responses revealed kind of these internal gender choices
that adults are making.
the survey respondents found that male pronouns were used almost three times as often as female,
even though more women participate in the survey than men, they still leaned very heavily towards
he, and actually no animal was likely to be described more as a female than as a male.
So it's just fascinating how these trickle-down effects from, you know, generations of children's books
mean that all the animals we are seeing are dudes.
The one animal I do want to call out is the pig.
pigs have over time kind of flip the script here.
For a long time, pigs were males.
I mean, the biggest story, three little pigs and the big bad wolf, those were all male
pigs.
But now you've seen an evolution where more female pigs are becoming into, you know, children's
book culture.
There's, if you give a pig a pancake, that was a female pig.
Olivia in 2000, that was a female pig.
Elephant in Piggy series, that's female pigs.
So not only are they female pigs, but they are these leadership characters that are
confident, they're curious, they're very central to their story.
So you never know, like things come and go.
Pigs were male focus now.
They're more female focus.
So things, they are a change in.
Now let's sprint to the finish with some final headlines.
The director of the CDC, Susan Monterrez, was fired yesterday after she refused to step down over pressure to change the agency's vaccine policies.
Her lawyers issued a statement soon after saying, when CDC director Susan Monteraz refused to rubber stamp unscientific, reckless directives and fire dedicated health experts.
she chose protecting the public over serving a political agenda.
For that reason, she has been targeted.
Her oucing led to a cascade of other officials heading for the door
with the agency's chief medical officer,
the director of its infectious disease center,
and more, all resigning too.
This all comes as HHS Secretary RFK Jr.
puts pressure on the CDC for being too friendly with the pharma industry and vaccine makers.
Monterez was confirmed by the Senate just last month,
making her the shortest serving CDC director in the history of the agency.
agency. And Neil, public health experts are sounding the alarm here because a lot of key leaders
are heading for the door. Yeah, you have the director who has been on the job less than a month.
And then three other key leaders were also at the door. And this is because of conflicts
with their boss, RFK Jr. over vaccine policy. And morale is extremely low at this agency
that's in charge of protecting the public from infectious diseases. Earlier this month,
there was a gunman who authorities said had been critical of the COVID-19 vaccine,
fire outside their headquarters in Atlanta, which killed a police officer and struck a number
of the agency's buildings. A number of people at the CDC have also been laid off from Doge
effects. So this agency is in crisis right now. Finally, the University of Colorado announced that
its bison mascot, Ralphie the 6th, was retiring after four years on the job because of her,
quote, indifference to running. Ralphie, you are too relatable. For decades, a Buffalo charging
onto the field has been a pregame fixture
of Colorado football games, but this
particular buffalo, nicknamed Ember,
just didn't have the heart or legs
for it, drawing frustrations for the
home crowd. In a statement, the university
said, due to an indifference
to running, typical of many mammals, both
four-legged and two-legged, it was
determined that it was in an ember's
best interest based on her disposition
to focus on relaxing strolls on the pasture,
which is her favorite hobby. It says
it has a succession plan in place for
Ralphie the 7th to take up the mantle,
but there's no timeline for her debut.
Dion Sanders' team could be without a bison to pump them up
when they begin their season Friday night in Boulder.
I feel for you, Ralphie the 6th,
but I actually want to go back to Ralphie the 5th for a second
because she was an absolute menace.
These Ralphies can reach up to 25 miles per hour,
and Ralphie the 5th was nicknamed Blackout.
She once completed her entire run in just 25 seconds.
She got so riled up on game day that the school had to retire her
because she was ignoring cues from their handlers
and running too much.
So which would you rather have a buffalo that charges too hard
or a buffalo that has an indifference to running?
I don't know.
Maybe I'm giving Ember her flowers here
because the lackadaisical buffalo is probably a little easier to control
than the one that is just out of control running around.
Yes, but it's sort of the you had just one job,
and that is to run onto the field.
And if you're a bison that doesn't really want to do that,
then maybe you should look for work elsewhere
or just chill on the pasture because you're a bison and you can do that.
That is all the time we have.
Thanks so much for starting your morning with us.
Have a wonderful Thursday.
If you have any thoughts or feedback on today's show, send a note to Morning Brew Daily at Morningbrew.com.
Let's roll the credits.
Emily Milliron is our executive producer.
Raymond Lue is our producer.
Our associate producers are Olivia Graham and Olivia Lig.
Hair and makeup is also indifferent to running.
Devin Emery is our president and our show is a production of Morning Brew.
Great show today, Neil. Let's run it back tomorrow.
