Morning Brew Daily - Online Retail Rakes in Nearly $10B & 3-Year Cruise Called Off Abruptly

Episode Date: November 27, 2023

Episode 200: Neal and Toby go through the winners and losers of the holiday weekend. Online retailers raked in almost $10 billion on Black Friday and United Airlines might be using customer data to create targeted ads. Plus, why US oil production is on fire and college football hasn't been this popular in a long time. Why advertisers are leaving 'X' in droves and the story behind the 3-year long cruise that was abruptly cancelled two weeks before departure. Finally, a look at the week ahead. Listen to Morning Brew Daily Here: https://link.chtbl.com/MBD Watch Morning Brew Daily Here: https://www.youtube.com/@MorningBrewDailyShow Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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Good morning brew daily show. I'm Neil Fryman. And I'm Toby Howell. On today's pod, looks like Americans aren't a bunch of procrastinators because you all spent a record amount on gifts on Black Friday. Then a three-year cruise around the world was canceled at the last minute, and it ain't because someone forgot the limbo bar. It's Monday, November 27th, and our 200th episode.

Let's ride. All right, Neil, everyone listening is coming back from a long Thanksgiving break, as are we. And I want to hear about yours. Give me one rose and one thorn from your time at home. Okay, one rose was I, when I was home, I had to go through a bunch of old papers that had been under my bed for years. And it was just such a nostalgia trip going through old high school newspaper clippings in my old college application essays.

And apparently I was very concerned with weaning the U.S. off of foreign oil. That was a main theme in some of my college application essays, which was bizarre. but I took a bunch of screenshots from all of our old newspaper clippings and sent it around to old friends, which was just a great little trip down memory lane. My thorn was losing hundreds of dollars in 30 minutes at the casino. Oh, no. It was such a pure and wholesome break until that last part. Also, we had very different college essays.

I can tell you that right now. My rose is I cooked the turkey this year, and I figured out three secrets. One, wet brine, definitely the way to go. it's so much flavor. Two, basing every 30 to 45 minutes gets that perfect crispy skin you're looking for. And then three, take it out before 165 internal. That just dries it way out if you stick to that. And then my thorn is, my flight back last night had an emergency landing in Baltimore.

And I didn't even notice it until my mom called me and said, hey, what happened? I've been tracking your flight. Why are you in Baltimore? I was so locked in preparing for the show. I didn't even realize it. So still a wonderful Thanksgiving break and very relaxing as well. Nice. All right, Neil, speaking of Thanksgiving break, let's hear about someone we at Morning Brew Daily are thankful for Brex.

To any new business owners or budding entrepreneurs out there, I hope your parents stop asking what it is you actually do this Thanksgiving. Instead, I hope they asked you, have you been listening to Morning Brew Daily? They talk about a sweet AI-powered spend platform, Brex, every day. Trust me, it's a much better question to hear. Second only two, can you pass the stuffing? Stuffing is my favorite, too. See, this is why we. we get along. If you're a business owner or a stuffing lover, head to brex.com to check it out today.

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with the good news first, so let's whip through our winners. I won the pre-show aerial dogfight, so I get to go first. And my first winner is Black. Friday. We heard from many retail analysts that Black Friday wasn't a thing anymore, that Americans were spreading out their gift buying across the holiday calendar and weren't loading up on the day after Thanksgiving in particular. Well, I'm here to tell you that Black Friday is still very much a thing. But instead of camping out in the Walmart parking lot at 2 a.m., people are just online shopping. Taking advantage of deep discounts, Americans spent $9.8 billion online on Black Friday. That's a new record and a meaty 7.5% jump from last year.

They also hit them all, too. Foot traffic at U.S. retailers rose 2.1% from last year. The takeaways, I've got three. First, Americans have become savvy shoppers and are taking advantage of when discounts are at their most generous, which they were on Black Friday. Some stores were offering up to 35% off the retail price for popular gift items like electronics. It's also a good sign for the all-important holiday shopping season. The winter quarter wasn't expected to be a home.

run with Americans having all but depleted their pandemic savings, but we simply continue to just spend while creating an indentation in our couches. And finally, do not count out Black Friday, as some did. Americans have not met a made-up shopping holiday they didn't love. My winner, within your winner, particularly, is actually mobile buying. So 54% of buying on Black Friday was done on a mobile device. And that method is actually expected to. to overtake desktop spending, which is kind of wild for the first time ever this holiday season. And I think that shows that impulse buying may have been a big factor in Black Friday this year, because usually when you're buying on your phone, you're scrolling something, and then you

click into the website, and then all of a sudden you got a package coming your way. I actually did this on Black Friday. We were talking about a book that I really wanted, and I was like, I don't really want to buy the full hardcover book. I'm going to buy a Kindle instead and get it on Kindle. So I got a Kindle coming my way. So I'm one of the impulse buyers. Another winner within our winner, I think, is Buy Now, Pay Later, which are these methods

that allow you to pay installments. And Adobe said that orders via Buy Now Pay Later were up 72% from last year across the entire week. And that accounted for $79 million of Black Friday spend. So, buy now, pay later. People are still using it. There was this trough of disillusionment in the post-COVID economy when interest rates were soaring. But Klarno, one of the leaders in the space, recently posted its first profit in four a year.

So it seems like by now, pay later, despite all the misgivings, despite the regulatory crackdown, this method of payment is still becoming super popular and it showed its resilience this holiday shopping season. Yeah. And then looking ahead, Cyber Monday is going to be huge as well. People are forecasting $12 billion in sales. which is even bigger than the Black Friday sale itself. So we got some more spending ahead of us, that's for sure. Did you buy anything besides the book?

That was the first one. I should have done it on Cyber Monday, but I bought the Kindle on Black Friday, so that was all I got. I got a book as well and a rice cooker. You can never have too many rice. I guess one is enough, but rice cooker could purchase milk. I don't have one.

Yeah, there you go. Okay, I'm sure a lot of you also flew over the weekend, but what if instead of being served peanuts in pretzels, you are served personalized ads during your flight. United Airlines is considering using the treasure trove of passenger info it has on you to help brands serve you ads based on your flying habits. These ads might pop up in the in-flight entertainment system while you're browsing the web on their Wi-Fi or within the app you use to check in.

United Execs have said that they're going to be careful to not creep people out with how specific the targeted ads are, but with the amount of data airlines have on us, it might be hard. Even though they are planning to give customers the option to opt out of having their data use, this is still a little bit freaky. So maybe this is a winner for United, but a loser for us, the passengers. This is a trend of companies that don't traditionally sell ads using their treasure trove of customer data to start selling very specific hyper-targeted ads.

I'm thinking Uber. I'm thinking, Marriott. There are a bunch of other companies that have said, you know, we don't really sell ads, but that is a very highly profitable business, and we have so much data on customers. We should probably start to sell ads. I think Uber is probably the best corollary for United. It has beefed up its advertising presence recently, and its CEO said it expects it to become a $1 billion business by 2024. United is probably looking at what Uber did and said, look, we have similar passengers who are going to be in here longer than you are in an Uber ride.

So we might as well start selling ads. Yeah, it's great for United. Listen to this scenario. Disney could hypothetically buy ad space to recommend a movie to a passenger that United knows vacations near their company's theme parks, or maybe they've redeemed miles to purchase something within Disney's merchandise. So once you start digging into exactly what this might mean, you do start to realize, wow, airlines do know a fair amount about us. They know what we're spending. And we can't go anywhere. Right. Yeah, you're locked in the cabin as well. So it is definitely part of a growing trend. Marriott's thinking about maybe selling those

personalized ads on TVs within hotel room. So you start to open your mind to the data that they have, but also the points of interaction that these companies have with us. And it seems like a fruitful path forward for United. It is fruitful. They're going to have to be very careful about how they go about it because there could be a widespread backlash. People love complaining about whatever airlines do so much. So it's going to have to be a very tactful rollout. My next winner is U.S. oil production. At the top of the show, we busted narratives around Black Friday. to bust narratives around how much oil the U.S. makes because it might surprise you to learn that as of this month, the U.S. is now producing more crude than at any point in history.

13.2 million barrels per day, topping the pre-COVID peak of 13.1 million, according to figures from the Energy Information Administration. Critics have accused President Biden of strangling the oil industry with red tape, but his administration has actually overseen a surge in production. Just consider this. When Obama entered the White House, the U.S. only produced around 5 million barrels per day. And as recently as a decade ago, we were just producing around 7. So we've nearly doubled output in 10 years. To zoom out, the U.S. is by far the largest oil producer in the world, accounting for 21% of global production compared to Saudi Arabia's 13%. And in recent years, we've become a net exporter of petroleum. So next time someone says the oil industry is dead or dying, you can politely correct them with these stats. Two last stats actually did blow my mind. Largest oil producer by a long ways. It's not even close between us and Saudi Arabia. I never would have known that until I dug through these stats.

Have you watched True Detective Season 1? I guess I have. If so, you've seen all the oil refinery. That is true. That's not what's said out to me about True Detective Season 1, but now that you mention it. Also, a Bloomberg reporter, Stephen Dennis, tweeted over the weekend that he estimates

four years of oil production under Biden will exceed eight years of production under George W. So that's just another contextualizing stat that can put this in perspective. But this is consistent with kind of the mega mergers we've seen in this space from big oil companies. Remember, Chevron agreed to buy Hess in October to access those rich Guyana oil fields. And then Exxon Bot Pioneer for access to the West Texas, Permian Basin of oil fields. So once you zoom out and you see where the power is concentrating and why oil companies are being so, so aggressive for new oil fields, you start to see just why. because it's just so rich still and the U.S. is producing so much oil.

I guess my high school self would have been proud. Yeah, exactly. You were way ahead of the curve on this, Neil. Okay, Neil, I would argue that no one had a better Thanksgiving than the University of Michigan College football team. This is the team that lost their head coached to a three-game suspension for getting wrapped up in this play call stealing scandal that saw a grad assistant, sometimes in disguise, stealing signs from opposing teams.

It's both bizarre and wildly entertaining and was a big, storyline as Michigan played their rivals Ohio State this weekend. And Michigan won, showing that this new era of cut-throat college football, has entered a hyper-capitalistic end state where winning and the money that comes along with it are the only thing that matters.

The incredible slate of college football on display this weekend shows why it's a sport that viewers just can't quit. College football viewing is up 10% this year through Week 11, according to Fox, and 20% from 2013, staving off the viewership decline that has affected every aspect.

of live TV that doesn't involve the gridiron. Neil, I'm not even really a college football fan, and I couldn't escape the gravity of the games this weekend. No, there was also Alabama beating Auburn on a crazy play. I have such fond memories of watching. That's called the Iron Bowl, the Saturday night of Thanksgiving. Always just an epic game. And yeah, for all the talk of NFL beasting in terms of ratings and the popularity of pro

football, college football is right up there. I also want to mention this is also probably the end of the pack. 12 as we know it, which is the West Coast Conference that has been basically gutted by the conference realignment. There's only going to be two teams left next year. So I don't know how that's going to work. But it's just going to be, I think, Washington State and Oregon State in the conference after all the other teams have absconded to other conferences in this huge realignment

that's been happening that has the Big Ten and the SEC kind of over just these mega conferences over everything else. So it was kind of the end of an era for the Pac-12, which had been known as the Conference of Champions, but it's been, I don't think it's going to exist next year. Yeah, I called it the hyper-capitalistic end state of college football. I do think we're just seeing this concentration of power in the major conferences. And it shows Michigan winning yesterday shows that even if you're cheating, even if you're stealing call signs, at the end of the day, if you win, no one ends up caring, everyone ends up blotting you anyway.

So I don't know if it's a good thing, but this is the state of college football that we're in, and people cannot tear their eyes away. All right, before any Buckeye or Auburn fans get too mad at us, we're going to take a quick break. Own it all. Pay off your home, travel for life, drive a Ferrari. In celebration of the world premiere of the Monopoly Big Board Buckslot machine by Aristocrat Gaming,

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A new New York Times report has put a number on what the advertiser Exodus is costing X this year, and that number is $75 million. Big blue-chip advertisers like Disney, Apple, and IBM have been pulling their spend off the platform after Elon Musk interacted with and endorsed an anti-Semitic tour. tweet earlier this month. Internal documents viewed by the New York Times show that nearly 200 ad

units that were supposed to run on Twitter have been halted or at risk of being halted. But X is fired back saying the documents the Times saw were outdated and the real impact is less than that and the actual figure would be closer to $11 million. Whatever the exact figure, advertiser hesitancy is coming at a really bad time for X considering the holidays are traditionally a time where brands splurge on platforms to throughout their deals. Neil, is it panic time for Elon? I don't, it may be, but he's not going to admit it. That's for sure. One thing we didn't mention last week when we talked about this that I do want to mention around the advertiser Exodus is that some of it had to do, or a great deal had to do with this report that came

from Media Matters, which is a media watchdog group that found that a bunch of these tech advertisers like IBM were running their ads next to neo-Nazi content. That has sparked a huge legal battle between X and Media Matters. X has sued for defamation. against this organization. So that lawsuit dropped last week and that litigation is ongoing. But as of now, 50 of the top advertisers that were on X in October 2020 when Elon Musk took over have gone. So I think this is a big deal considering that X typically or X when Twitter, when it was Twitter, relied on advertising for upwards of 90% of its revenue. Linda Yaccarino is the CEO who was brought on. She had a great.

relationships with advertisers. She was trying to bring them back. It's been a slow trickle. It's ebbed and flowed with various reports and various Elon Musk shenanigans. So we'll see how it plays out. I think they're just at this lower stasis level. Like the equilibrium of the amount of advertisers that they have is just lower than before. Then again, they have lower expenses because they only have 2,000 staff as opposed to more than 8,000 originally. So we might just be looking at a Twitter or an X that is just significantly smaller than it once was. Yeah, I know that advertising revenue is definitely down under Elon, but the last time Twitter was a public company had brought in around $1.6 billion in revenue in the final quarter of 2021.

So if you look at that $11 million or $75 million number, whatever you want to call it, maybe it's not as big of impact as you see as a whole if you put it into context. But that being said, the relationship side of things, the things that Linda Yakerina was supposed to bring her relationship with these big advertisers, that is not good if you start kind of fraying those because there's a lot of different places that these big companies can spend their ad dollars. You got Instagram, you got Facebook, all these other places. So if Netflix decides, hey, we're not going to spend our $3 million that we usually do on X, that becomes a problem long term.

So even though the specific number itself might not be that big, I do think it's a problem for the future going forward. The fundamental problem with advertising on X is that it's not a good ad product for advertisers. So they don't have a huge problem pulling their money and putting it somewhere else. because I don't know if you've been on X or Twitter recently. Like, you do not see ads that are relevant. It is not something that you are prone to click on compared to an Instagram ad, which may be much more relevant to you than something you see on X or Twitter. So I think they have to resolve that problem to create more stickiness in its advertisers.

Before we move on to the next story, I also want to mention that Musk is trying to make amends with the Jewish community. He is meeting with Israeli President Isaac Herzog today on. Monday. So to try to show that he's not, I mean, he said he's not anti-semitic. He denies all of those accusations, but he's trying to take a big step in that regard today. Our next loser is stock market bears because y'all really should have gone into hibernation by now. November has been pretty epic for the stock market, even historic. The S&P 500 is up 8.7% for the month, which would be one of the best November's on record. The index has gained more than 8% in November, fewer than 10 times since 1928.

And investors think this rally has legs. The QQQQ Exchange traded fund, which tracks the TechFocus NASDAQ index, recorded its largest weekly inflow in history the week of November 13th. Toby, the S&P is up nearly 19% so far in 2023, and all signs point to a so-called Santa Claus rally to close out the year. But we've been burned before. We have been burned before. I mean, you mentioned that it was historically in context, one of the best November.

members ever, just to even provide more detail around that. The S&P has gained more than 8% in one month, fewer than 10 times ever since 1928. So we truly are in rarefied air here. I feel like it went under the radar, too. I know I've talked about this on this show, but we're talking about one of 10 times in history that it's gained over 8%. But to me, it just, there's still some sort of malaise kind of affecting American psyche. So it is one of these things where the stock market seems a little disconnected to how a lot of people are feeling, but dang, is it doing well? This is all about inflation and the Fed's interest rates, because inflation has dropped to close to 2%, which is the Fed's target. The Fed has essentially signaled that its historic interest

rate hikes that have brought interest rates to 22-year highs is all but over. It's done. It's squash. It's not going to happen anymore. And investors are sort of reacting to that trend. And now the question is, when are they going to cut interest rates? Meanwhile, the VIX, which is known as the Wall Street's fear gauge, has fallen 41% over the last four weeks, which is one of the biggest declines on record, too. So this is a bullish environment in the stock market right now. Yeah, the stock market may have had a dream November, but Disney's latest animated film, Wish, had a nightmare opening weekend. Usually family-oriented movies dominate the Thanksgiving weekend, but Disney's latest interest got MET reviews from critics and a MET reception for movie. goers. It wasn't that long ago that Disney had an absolute stranglehold on this particular weekend. Back in

2019, Frozen 2 brought in $125 million domestically over the five-day week of Thanksgiving. Wish didn't even crack $20 million for the three-day weekend. Even Napoleon, the two-plus hour epic about the French emperor, came in ahead of it at the box office, continuing this theme of long adult geared films like Oppenheimer coming back into style. Neil, this is, Disney's 100th year anniversary and Wish was meant to be this self-referential homage to some of the magic it's created along the way. But instead, it's laid bare all of Disney's recent stumbles instead. The mouse is in a bit of a funk. Yes, it is. I mean, one thing I wouldn't count out Wish just yet, because I want to look at the example of Enkanto, which came out, you just pointed

at me because you know that was a good point. Yeah, so Enkanto came out, kind of bombed at the box office, but it's had a really long. Elemental. Elemental. Yeah. That was part of it. partially why I pointed as well. Elemental, not in Canto, but basically that movie bombed at the box office, but it had this really long tail on Disney Plus where a lot of families watched it afterwards. So we could see a bit of a renaissance for Wish on Disney Plus, but yes, it had a terrible showing. Disney used to dominate the Thanksgiving box office. I looked at the box office earnings across the entire year to see how we're doing.

We're up 22% so far this year compared to last year. So a little bit of an uptick, and I'm sure that was helped by Barbie and Super Smash Bros. and all the Bob, Barbenheimer hype, but it seems like the box office is still not fully recovered to pre-COVID levels. Right. It's not fully recovered, but Disney can't point at it saying, oh, we're not at pre-COVID levels because the box office is up in general. So this does clearly seem to be a Disney-specific problem.

But Bob Agar said that they're going to start focusing more on quality over quantity. We'll see if it plays out. I don't know. It does feel like some of the magic has been sat from these Disney movies, and I've saw a lot of these reviews where the, The songs itself seem AI generated. Like, the villain was, people kept saying, this is the first Disney villain that uses hair product.

We want the real Disney villains back. So it's definitely a bit of a funk, but hopefully they kind of pull themselves out of it. Oof, I'm going to get flayed for messing up Elemental and Encanto. Okay, our final loser is everyone who bought tickets for a three-year cruise, because it has been canceled. If you hadn't heard about this cruise, it grabbed headlines for offering a three-year voyage that would cover 130,000 miles, 375 ports and 135 countries, with tickets ranging from $30,000 a year all the way up to $109,000.

But after delaying the start two times, the operator Life at Sea Cruises told passengers that their trip of a lifetime was off because they had failed to secure the ship they wanted. The transaction for the ship the company had set its sights on took longer than anticipated to go through and ultimately another cruise line swooped in to buy it. So now customers are out tens of thousands of dollars. Some are stranded in Istanbul where the cruise was originally set to depart. And others don't have a home to return to because they sold it thinking they were going to live on a boat for three years. What a debacle? I feel so bad for the people who sold their house because imagine thinking you have the next three years all figured out. You're going to be on this cruise.

We're going to have a great time. And suddenly it's pulled out from underneath you. I just think it's very hard to not only convince people to do a three-year cruise, but also get a. investor backing for it. There's only one currently operational cruise. It's called the world where condos sell for up to $15 million, but it's hard to kind of build these floating communities, even though I'm all in on the idea. Would you do it? Would you put down the 100 plus K to live there for three years? I think I'd want maybe a meet and greet with the people beforehand, because if I'm living, because basically you're getting a bunch of roommates for three years and you're

signing on to that. I don't necessarily, I'm paying a lot of money for this. So I want to to see it through. I don't want to just get off of them at not having a good time. But I just want to meet the people to see if they're like-minded and if we'll have a good time. But either way, you know, familiarity breeds, I don't know what the phrase is. But you become friends with the people you're around with no matter what. So I think that would happen. I would certainly not do this. But the prospect of visiting, you know, what is, 135 countries in one fell swoop is pretty exciting. But cruises always take you to the super touristy parts. And I don't know if I'm into that. That is true. Although it's a walkable city. So if you're a family,

of Aquacable cities join the giant three-year cruise. Okay, let's hit our preview of the week ahead. The biggest event on the calendar is COP28 in Dubai, the year's most important meeting on climate change. This annual two-week summit is the first since the 2015 Paris Agreement, during which nearly 200 countries will take stock of how they're meeting their emissions targets set forth in Paris, or not meeting, really. The UN released a report in September showing that most countries are falling short of their targets. I mean, this was the warmest summer we've had globally. If that doesn't give these

countries kind of the kick in the butt they need to get back on track for the emissions, I don't know what will. And then also contrast this meeting to the oil news we talked about. So it's hard to see how we're getting closer to mean those missions goals when we have record high oil production. We are making progress, though. There's also a bit of controversy because this is taking place in Dubai, which is known for its oil production and the UAE's representative to the UN COP, allegation is the CEO of the oil company there. So they're saying this is a bit of a conflict of interest.

Next, Beyonce is coming to theaters. Renaissance, a film by Beyonce will premiere worldwide on Friday, and it follows the music icon across her 56 shows from the Renaissance tour that wrapped up in October. The big question, can Beyonce toppled Taylor Swift? Since it was released earlier this fall, Taylor Swift's Ares Tour concert film has earned nearly $250 million at the box office. this duel at football stadiums over the summer

has now turned into a duel at movie theaters. Are you more likely to see the Renaissance movies since you didn't see the concert? Yeah, I was thinking about that, probably. Because I've kind of balked at seeing the heiastewer because we saw it in person, and I was like, I don't know if I need to relive the three hours inside a movie theater,

so maybe I'm more open to Renaissance as well. That thought actually crossed my mind. Finally, finally, the cyber trucks are on their way. Tesla will hold a cyber truck delivery event on Thursday at its factory in Austin to celebrate the first deliveries of its futuristic-looking electric trucks. It shouldn't be a particularly lengthy event because the company said that only 10 trucks will be shipped that day.

This has been a long time coming. Elon Musk first announced the cyber truck in 2019 and recently complained that making it was a huge challenge saying we dug our own grave with cyber truck. I keep going back and forth on the cyber truck, but I'm back in. Let's just make cars look different again. And it might be a manufacturing nightmare, all those sharp angles. But hey, at least it's not another minivan. So I'm backing on cyber truck.

I'm sure I'll flip-flop again in another month. On the highways driving back yesterday, I was just thinking, wow, minivans. They're so archaic. Like, I just saw some minivans. And I was like, this is popular. They're very useful. But I don't think they... You say that now.

You say that now. But wait until you got kids going to the soccer practice in the back. All right. That is our show for this Monday. Hope we were able to ease you back into the work routine. But Blinken, before you know, it's going to be Chris. break. If you want to reach us, absolutely send an email with thoughts, questions, concerns to Morning Brew Daily at Morningbrew.com. Let's roll the credits. Emily Miliron is our editor and producer.

Samantha Vela's and Raymond Lue are associate producers. Yuchinawa Ogu is our technical director. Billy Minino is on audio. Hair and makeup is stranded in Istanbul after their cruise was canceled. Devin Emery is our chief content officer and our show is a production of Morning Brew. Great show today, Neil. Let's run it back tomorrow. Relax and let Ralph's Delivery handle your grocery shopping this week. We start with only the freshest items, then review your list and carefully choose each one. Then we pack it all up and deliver it in as little as 30 minutes, so you can feel confident it's what you ordered. Fresh groceries, your way, with Ralph's delivery and pickup.

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