Morning Brew Daily - PayPal is Crashing Out & Pepsi Slashes Snack Prices for Super Bowl

Episode Date: February 4, 2026

Episode 772: Neal and Toby dive into the grumblings of a deal gone cold between OpenAI and Nvidia. Next, PepsiCo is trying to coax back shoppers by slashing the prices of its popular snacks. Also, PayPal’s wilting profits behind its competitors has prompted for a CEO change. Meanwhile, Rome implements a fee to its famed Trevi Fountain to curb its overtourism. And, Walmart crosses $1 trillion dollars in market cap. Get your tickets for the Morning Brew Variety Show! https://tinyurl.com/MBvariety  Learn more about Sandals at sandals.com  Subscribe to Morning Brew Daily for more of the news you need to start your day. Share the show with a friend, and leave us a review on your favorite podcast app. Listen to Morning Brew Daily Here:⁠ ⁠⁠https://www.swap.fm/l/mbd-note⁠⁠⁠  Watch Morning Brew Daily Here:⁠ ⁠⁠https://www.youtube.com/@MorningBrewDailyShow⁠ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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pwc.com slash US slash brew AI. That's pwc.com slash us slash brewAI. Good morning, Brew Daily Show. I'm Neil Fryman. And I'm Toby Howell. Today, why your Super Bowl spread could be cheaper this year. Ben PayPal has very few pals on Wall Street these days. It's Wednesday, February 4th.

Let's ride. Good morning. Sorry if I'm a little low energy. Stayed up late watching the Westminster Kennel Club dog competition. And it did not disappoint. Penny, the door. Oberman Pinscher was crowd Best in Show, taking down Zeta the Afghan Hound, Cota the Chesapeake Bay Retriever, and Cookie the Maltese, among other finalists.

And talk about longevity. This dog show has been around 60% of the time America has existed. At 150 years, it's the second longest continuously held sporting event in the United States, only behind the Kentucky Derby, and it's much older if you count in dog ears. Toby, a worthy best in show. A worthy best in show, but man, I was pulling for the Chesapeake Bay retriever. Koda runner-up finish, which sounds fine, but also Dobermans have won five times. No Retriever has ever won. So I was hoping for a little bit of a Cinderella story. 150 years Westminster

Dog Show is crazy. Do you know why it's called The Westminster Dog Show? I don't. Something to do with paying homage to England? It's the Westminster Hotel, but the Westminster Hotel is long gone now. The name just stuck. So imagine, you know, you host your first dog competition at the Hyatt. And now it's just the Highland. Hyatt Dog Show forever. Westminster has great longevity in branding, if not great longevity as a business itself. And now a word from our sponsor, Sandals. Hey, Neil, can you do a Jamaican accent? I can't and won't. Why do you ask? Well, Jamaica's been at the top of my list for vacation destinations. I am pining for island time. Picture it. Powder white sand, turquoise waters. Just thinking about it,

has me feeling warmer already. Sounds like you should check out Sandals adult-only resorts. They let you explore the Caribbean's most beautiful islands like Jamaica and enjoy globally inspired dining across more than 10 restaurants per resort. There is no better place to experience the Caribbean than at resorts founded by a family from the Caribbean. For the latest offers, visit sandals.com. That's sandals.com. Study and play. Come together on a Windows 11 PC. And for a limited time, college students get the best of both worlds. Get the unreal college deal. Every everything you need to study and play with select Windows 11 PCs. Eligible students get a year of Microsoft 365 premium and a year of Xbox GamePass Ultimate with a custom color Xbox wireless controller. Learn more at Windows.com slash student offer. While supplies last, ends June 30th, terms at AKA.m.MS slash college PC. PayPal is crashing out. Once a Silicon Valley Titan who boasted Elon Musk, Peter Thiel, Reid Hoffman, and Moore as former employees, the company has been brought to its knees. PayPal just has had its second worst trading day ever after announcing a new CEO in underwhelming Q4 earnings,

a double whammy leading to a 20% stock wipeout. I'm hereby awarding the awkward first month of work award to Enrique Lores, who comes in as the new PayPal CEO after humming HP for years to take the reins on March 1st. Tough to look people in the eyes, though, when you're hiring led to the stock puking all over itself, he will be tasked with turning around a ship that has no rudder and is in the middle of a hurricane. The Gale Force wins PayPal is facing include a dodgy retail spending environment that is eating away at the transactions

that make up its core business. PayPal has also been lapped by more modern payment processors like BNPL giants in Stripe, while Big Boys Apple and Google Pay are always lurking. It's why the company sees anemic growth on the horizon, projecting full-year profits to eCup low single digits going forward. Neil, this was a company that hit $356 billion

market cap during the pandemic. Yesterday, it closed just south of $40 billion. Yuck. It's an astonishing collapse, and people are getting strangely emotional about it. But PayPal was the great incubator of modern Silicon Valley. The guys who started it, they even have a name, the PayPal Mafia, because they went on to found some of the most recognizable tech companies today. But the business PayPal right now in its current form is just an absolute disaster.

The one number to focus on, this is what Wall Street was focused on, is branded checkout. Now branded checkout, this is what you see PayPal on your computer screen when you're checking out from a particular merchant. You see Apple pay, Google Pay, PayPal. Well, it used to be just PayPal. PayPal, this branded checkout accounts for half of PayPal's profits. It's a very high margin business, but there's basically no growth. Last year, growth was 6%. This past quarter, growth was 1%. So essentially flattened branded checkout. That is what PayPal needs to have much higher to be a sustainable business and keep its stock afloat because it's absolutely crashing out. So the outgoing CEO, his name is Alex Chris, he was tasked at beefing up its

branded checkout business. He actually did call out like this is the new focus of PayPal right now. We definitely want to focus on this because it's an higher margin business for the company. So his heart was in the right place. The execution wasn't there. Also, the spending environment right now, the macro context isn't doing PayPal any favors right now because what do you need as a payment processor to make money? You need people spending their money. And if, you know, sort of retail market is cooling a little bit, if discretioning purchases are pulling back, that makes it hard for your business to grow as well. What is new CEO Enrique Lora is going to do when he comes in? He has some skeptics immediately already because he's coming from HP, which is mostly a hardware

company, you're stepping into a payments role? Do you know the payments world? He was also on the PayPal board for the last couple of years. Was there a conflict of interest in saying that, hey, I'm the new CEO now when you are tasked with, you know, leading a CEO search? So definitely some skeptics waiting in the wings. And he's stepping into a company that is not doing well right now. Maybe the only way it can go is up, though. It's not doing well right now and it hasn't done well for the past decade. And there's this very interesting post on X by David Marcus, who is, who was the CEO of PayPal before he left for META. And he absolutely just dragged past leadership for failing to meet the moment when it comes to seizing the opportunities that payments presented

here in the 2020s. He said the leadership style shifted from product led to financially led. Product conviction gave way to financial optimization. He said they were totally late to buy now, pay later, and got crushed by Affirm Klarna and Afterpay. They built products that were very conservative, optimized for loss minimization. And then they made acquisitions like honey. They bought honey that added volume but not leverage. So he did this really long post-mortem diving into all the product decisions that, or non-product decisions that PayPal has made since he left in 2014 that have basically created this business. And the valuation comparisons now are not favorable to PayPal at all. Because if you look at some of these names that you mentioned,

even if you just look at Stripe, which is a privately held company, $110 billion. evaluation. PayPal is sitting less than $40 billion, which is just crazy to think about for a company that basically pioneered the online payment states. How did it fall so much? How did it stumble so much so that this is the current state that it finds its business in? Execution, lack of execution. All right, with less than two weeks until Valentine's Day, the one steamy relationship between Nvidia and Open AI appears to be cracking with huge implications for the artificial intelligence rates, not to mention a 7 p.m. reservation at the French laundry. Here's what's going on.

Remember back in the fall when Nvidia said it would invest up to $100 billion into OpenAI, a historic partnership dubbed the largest computing project in history. Yeah, that deal seems to be like everything else these days on ice. A few days ago, the Wall Street Journal reported that Nvidia's massive pledge had stalled out after some people inside the company raised concerns about OpenAI's business discipline. Then, Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang essentially confirmed that the deal had to, closed, telling reporters the $100 billion was, quote, never a commitment and they'll invest one step at a time. But this beef goes both ways. As Nvidia gets cold feet about Open AI, Open AI is reportedly

frustrated with Nvidia. According to Reuters, OpenAI is not satisfied with Nvidia's latest AI chips, and it's been poking around for alternatives since late last year, as more of the AI industry moves from training models to actually answering your chat chip PT queries, and Vidia's hardware isn't catching up. Sam Allman's CEO of OpenAI tried to lower the temperature posting. We love working with Nvidia and they make the best AI chips in the world. We hope to be a gigantic customer for a very long time. I don't get where all this insanity is coming from. Toby, this is as close as the tech world gets to Bravo. So combined with that Sam Altman post that was trying to smooth things over, we also got a report from Bloomberg yesterday that said Nvidia is nearing a deal to invest

$20 billion in Open AI as part of its latest funding round. So There's definitely a concerted effort at this point to say things are better than maybe these reports seemed, although where there's smoke, there's fire. And one thing I want to point out is that you mentioned that Reuters was the one who reported that opening eyes unsatisfied with NVIDIA's latest chip. Eight internal sources told Reuters, which is a lot of internal sources. So there is definitely something going on. Maybe it's a slight tiff. Maybe it's something bigger. But if you see smoke, there is some drama.

I think that's what Sam Altman was remarking upon when he said, I don't know where this insanity is coming from. Well, at least eight people inside your company is saying that they're ticked off in video. Maybe that's just a way of getting back in the press at what Jensen Huang has been saying. But, you know, it's very, it's very steamy here and not in the romantic way. Every $100 billion counts for Open AI. I know I'm saying that as a joke, but it's true because Open AI is on the hook for $1.4 trillion in computing commitments, which is more than 100 times the revenue it was on pace to generate

last year. Invidia is saying, whoa, we're going to spend $100 billion with you last year and then now saying, actually, I'm not so sure. That has huge ramifications for pretty much every company across the AI spectrum because Open AI has $1.4 trillion in IOUs to a lot of different companies. So they're watching to see Open AI's fundings make sure they have enough money to get paid. And one thing that I think explains some of Invin's. video's trepidation is the fact that they do not want to appear overly reliant on open AI because

they just saw that kind of horror show play out when it comes to Microsoft. Microsoft has been, you know, building out a lot of infrastructure. They essentially have a lot of exposure to open AI as well. And they just had the second worst day in stock trading history, basically, in terms of market cap loss, because it is a contributing factor, their open AI. exposure. So there's almost like an opening eye valuation tax now. And so perhaps that explains why you're seeing a little bit of this. It feels like a relationship where you're like, I need some space from you. Like I would just like to say I'm my own person here. I don't need you. And hence the reason why we're seeing this back and forth in the media. And the big picture is open AI used to be

a kingmaker when you did a deal with them. Your stock would pop 30%. Now it's an albatross. As you scoop up snacks for your Super Bowl party, you could be in for a supermarket surprise. Prices for some of your favorite finger foods are coming down. PepsiCo, the maker of Tostitos, Doritos, Lays, and Cheetos, said it's cutting the price of its snacks by 15% with a rollout coming ahead of the Super Bowl of snacking the actual Super Bowl. It's a response to everyone's frustration with the surging cost of groceries. The U.S. head of food at Pepsi, Rachel Ferdinando,

said she's, quote, spent the last year listening closely to consumers, and they've told us they're feeling the strain. Que the price cut, which could lower the cost of a classic Lays potato chip bag, to 429 from 499. Quick note, Pepsi is a food manufacturer, so it doesn't have the final say on prices. That's up to the retailer. However, Pepsi said that its top retailers are very on board and are so excited about this move that they're going to increase shelf space for Pepsi products by double digits.

Toby, if snacks are getting a little cheaper, I think I may go nine layers on the dip this year. I'm coming over to your house to try that. I think what you're seeing here is something that I'm going to actually steal from Bloomberg's Joe Wisenhall. he said in reaction to this news, I think price over volume is officially dead. After 14 straight quarters of declining sales volume, Pepsi is cutting prices in order to grow. What he's getting at is that the lever that Pepsi has been using to grow as a business is just raising prices.

Not more people have been buying snacks. People have been cutting back on snacks, but their business has turned along all right because they realized that they did have some wiggle room in how high they could raise these prices. That's over now. Like that era is over. We've heard it from customers. People are tired of feeling ripped off by shrinkflation where prices were rising, but the packaging was getting smaller. So completely new era, they eat everything they could out of those price rises. And now they're giving people a little bit more bang for their buck. There is astonishing price hikes from Pepsi. They raised prices by double digit percentages in 2022 and 2023. Then they raised prices 4% in each of the last two years overall. retail prices for salty snacks were about nearly 40% higher in June 2024 than they were in 2020. So if you're looking for where inflation has really hit hardest the most, it's in that salty snack aisle that Pepsi has, that makes accounts for a lot of Pepsi's food business. And then on the other front, Pepsi's facing a lot of pressure from GLP1 drugs, make America healthy again, movement.

If you're looking for any poster child for a company that's had to pivot its products to account for. for new trends. It's absolutely Pepsi. It's introducing healthier versions of Cheetos and Doritos with no food dyes. It's got this Gatorade coming out made with less sugar, no artificial colors or flavors. It's changing its packaging to highlight simpler ingredients. So it's, this is a big shit. Pepsi is a huge company, and it's really had to turn, do a complete 180 from its very unhealthy snack foods to really highlight how it's making things healthier with fiber and protein and all that. And one other thing to note is that the reason they're able to lower these prices is the fact that they're actually just simplifying their business a lot. They want to reduce their product range by 20% in this year.

So basically just saying we're not going to sell as many things going forward. And then also they just have a variety of reductions that are going forward. Headcount reduction. They're closing a three plants. They're consolidating manufacturing lines. And basically saying like, hey, this is all the reason we're able to offer these price decreases is because we're saving costs elsewhere. we're in the business. If you had to pick one Doritos flavor to go.

To go? Yeah. Well, it's been mind of the product portfolio. I know. Well, you can't get rid of just like nacho cheese and cool ranch. So I think it's like the sweet chili one or something. Maybe sweet and tangy barbecue.

There's a sweet chili one. We're killing it. Keep the stalwarts, get rid of the peripherals. All right, we're going to take a quick break and come back with a story about the Trevi Fountain. Head to the coast and Abercrombie's latest summer drop. It's short season. and their new C-Fade shorts add the perfect wash look to your fit.

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That's why Ali's science back support is made with a blend of melatonin and L-D-Nine for both kiddos and grown-ups. So when your mind won't switch off, you've got something that can help. Erasing thoughts and restless nights won't stand a chance. Find Ollie's sleep solutions for the whole family at ali.com. That's OLLLY.com. If you're traveling to Rome with the hopes of throwing a coin in the Trevi fountain, make sure you come with some extra change in your back pocket. As of this week, foreign visitors must pay two euros to approach the iconic landmark to make their toss.

If you've ever been packed in the small piazza during summer, you understand why officials made this decision, which exempts local residents. Over tourism is a massive issue, with 2025 bringing 10 million people to gaze upon the fountain's Baroque beauty. On peak days, visitors touch 70,000 or more, according to Rome's assessor of tourism, Alessandro Onorato. So the idea is to kill two birds with one coin. The city estimates it can collect between $7 to $23 million annually in ticket sales, while also limiting crowds. Tourists are mostly amenable to the fee, too. Two euros is fine to pay to see something like this up close, one told CNN.

Onerato agrees, if the Trevi Fountain were in New York City, they would charge $100 to enter. Neil, this story is about the Trevi Fountain, but dealing with tourists who bring economic impact, but also annoying crowds, is something sites all across Europe are dealing with. What do you think of Rome's solution? Well, I think if you ask an economist and say, how do I change someone's behavior, they would say, we'll put a tax on it, which is essentially what this is.

Two euros. I don't know if it's going to dissuade a lot of people from waiting at the, to get in line at the Trevi fountain. But it is something, and it's something that a lot of different, very popular sites across Europe are doing. Last year, Venice instituted a day-tripper tax to people coming into That overwhelmed city, the Louvre put a 40% price hike for most non-European visitors. So all of these sites that are drowning in tourists are raising prices for outsiders.

And we'll see the, I mean, it's still the very early days and we'll see whether that actually changes tourist behavior. But the world is drowning in tourists right now, in particular Europe. Tourist or international arrivals last year hit 1.52 billion, which was 4% higher than the pre-pandemic peak of 2019. more than half of those arrivals are in Europe. There's a crazy stat. 43% of Germans have been to Italy at least three times.

So people are going to the hotspots and it's Europe and they're trying to figure out what to do with it. This is a very tough problem to crack. And the two euro number is not a lot of money. Like we were all saying in the office, that doesn't seem like that much. And it's not compared to something like the United States, for instance, who starting this year, non-U.S. Residence 16 and older must pay $100. surcharge in order to enter 11 of the most popular national park. So this is happening within our own borders at a much higher price point.

The one thing that I thought was funny, too, because I did say one of the tourists who talked to CNN said, oh, absolutely we'd pay this price. This seems completely normal. He actually threw his coin from outside the barriers after that, after he gave that quote, which is something that the Trevi Fountain is going to have to deal with is some people already have been raining coins down from Steph Curry range because they don't want to actually pay for the the two euro entry fees. So they're saying that we're going to have some police around the border. I think it would have been very funny too is if you had to throw your

entry fee into the fountain itself because, you know, that's what people do. And I did look up the stats. 1.5 million euros per year are tossed into the Trevee Fountain every single year. So that... Which is later donated to charity. which is donated to charity, but it would be funny if the entry fees mingled in there as well. I got a little deep on how they're going to solve this problem of overtourism because it's just so hard to me. I don't understand how you can stop people from coming to the world's greatest sites, right? Like everyone wants to go and more people have money to go and airline fares are down and international tourism is way up. The biggest word in this industry right now is dispersion.

So it's trying to get tourists, it's getting tourists in, but also dispersing them from those hot spots and getting. them out of cities. So what's interesting one place is doing this? Faroe Islands, tourism is 3% of GDP. It has a lot of tourism. The board worked with locals. They're programming favorite local spots into rental car navigation systems. So you rent a car in the Faroe Islands and you already see these local spots that are outside of the city that they're just trying to disperse people. So I thought that was an interesting strategy to get to stop, you know, to stop what's happening at the Louvre or the or the Trevi fountain before it gets out of hand. All right, let's spread to the finish with some final headlines. Up first, their prices are low, but their market cap is high.

Walmart officially joined the $1 trillion market cap club yesterday. Depending on how you classify Amazon, Wally World is the first pure retailer to reach a 13-figure valuation, joining a techie group that includes Nvidia, Amazon, Meta, Microsoft, and more. Ironically, it's been investor enthusiasm with Walmart's online business and tech-mindedness that has added the extra comma to its market cap. One Morgan Stanley analyst who's been covering Walmart since 2001 said the change over the past decade has been as profound a shift at a retail company that we have ever seen. Neil, it has been a remarkable shift. Go back 10 years and it looked like Walmart was going to get left behind by Amazon and the rise of e-commerce. But it's grown. It's online business. It's riding the AI wave and still

offers everyday low prices to cast-strap consumers all the ingredients you need for a trillion-dollar sandwich. This is pretty impressive for your third day on the job. John Ferner just started as CEO on Sunday and then on Tuesday you hit a $1 trillion market cap. So good on you, John Ferner. Yeah, amazing transformation by Walmart. It's basically become Amazon right now. Walmart can deliver orders on the same day to 95% of U.S. households. You mentioned also that it has low prices, but that's also drawn in a lot of wealthier and higher income shoppers.

That's been driving a lot of growth for Walmart. shares are up 12% this year compared to the S&B 500, which is essentially flat. China is making car door handles actually have handles again. On Monday, Beijing announced a ban on concealed handles for electric vehicles, becoming the first country to take the step following a series of deadly incidents. Introduced by the Tesla Model S in 2012, hidden door handles have been widely adopted by other automakers, including in China, where 60 of the 100 best-selling EVs and hybrids have them. But fatal accidents in recent years in which passengers weren't able to manually release the doors during power failures, has put the design in the

crosshairs of regulators around the world. Now China is telling automakers they need to have hand-operable space around their handles due to take effect next January. I think what we're seeing too is China becoming the global auto safety rule setter as well because it used to be that, you know, America would do something that others would follow it. It's why we sell so many of these handleless door handles actually become a thing at all because Tesla pioneered it. Everyone copy them. But now, China is the biggest EV market in the world. So they are going to be able to dictate how cars are being designed globally. If they say, uh-uh, we are done with these, admittedly, pretty annoying and definitely unsafe door handle model, then I think we'll start

seeing that filter down to other car models as well in other countries. Finally, don't let anyone tell you bullying companies on social media doesn't get results and might have helped rescue a Spanish figure skaters minions routine. Last Friday, star figure skater, Thomas Laurent Guarino Sabate, shared the news that Universal did not clear him to use a Minions music mix for his upcoming routine at the Winter Olympics, citing copyright issues. Garino Sabate had been using the Minion's soundtrack for his routines during the season, for which he donned a yellow t-shirt and blue overalls to really look the part. Once people online got wind of this, they raised quite a stink, demanding that Guarino Sabate be allowed to skate to Minions. Then yesterday came some good news. The skater posted that because of everyone who reposted and shared his story,

Universal reconsidered and granted the music rights for the special occasion of the Olympics. While he said there were still some kinks to work out, it looks like this Minion's routine is a go. I mean, it would have been crazy if they couldn't figure out because Universal Pictures, which owns the copyright, shares the parent company with NBC, which airs the freaking Olympics. So of course I was hoping some back channeling could happen that would make this minions allowed to be, you know, skated to. but I have to push back on this guy a little bit. You train your whole life.

You're in the top 0.001% of your craft. And you go out there in overalls in a yellow shirt and dance two of minions. You're gimmicking yourself a little bit. Do you agree with this or not? I do not agree with the take. God forbid he just wants to put on a show. But you're at the Olympics.

This is the culmination of your entire life's work and you're maybe going to distract from that by... He's not a metal contender. He's not a metal contender. You can say it's a chicken or the egg kind of thing, but he will not. He doesn't have an advanced enough program with a high level of difficulty enough to meddle while we have the quad god who's going to rip quads. Like, we can't, he's not going to compete. So why not just put on a show and put a smile on people's faces?

I don't understand what your problem is. I'm going to watch Blades of. What a aider. After this and you don't check out Chas Michael Michaels. Okay, talk about a fun thing that is the sound. It's a show. It's a show. I'm back on his side. Thank you.

And just a few more. Olympic notes. The games actually begin today. The opening ceremony is not until Friday. So there are competitions in curling, alpine skiing, and luch today. If you want to throw that on your second monitor on peacock. Finally, Lindsay Vaughn, this is crazy. So she is skiing star, downhill skiing star for the United States. She tore her ACL in a crash four days ago. But yesterday, she said she is confident she can compete in the Olympics, which I'm not a physiologist. I'm not a doctor. I have no idea how that works. No, I'm not going to lie. If I tore my ACL, I wouldn't even do the podcast, let alone try to do downhill skiing. So Lindsay Vaugh,

you are better than I. That is all the time we have. Thanks so much for starting your morning with us and have a wonderful Wednesday. If you want to get in touch, send an email to Morning Brew Daily at Morningbrew.com or DM us on Instagram at MB Daily Show. Let's roll the credits. Emily Milliron is our executive producer. Raymond Lou is our producer. Our associate producers are Olivia Graham and Olivia Lake. makeup is best in no show. Devin Emery is our president and our show is a production of Morning Brew.

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