Morning Brew Daily - Political Ad Spend Hits $1B & Berkshire Hathaway Out on Apple?

Episode Date: November 4, 2024

Episode 444: Neal and Toby (fresh from his post-marathon glow) recap the biggest election news as we’re one day away from Election Day and each candidate is throwing the kitchen sink. Then, Warren Buffett sells another chunk of Apple shares which boosts Berkshire Hathaway’s cash up to new records. Next, TGI Friday’s files for bankruptcy. Meanwhile, the weekend’s winners are Nvidia and spray-on sneakers. Lastly, the biggest news you need to know for the week ahead.  Subscribe to Morning Brew Daily for more of the news you need to start your day. Share the show with a friend, and leave us a review on your favorite podcast app. Download the Yahoo! Finance App (on the Play and App store) for real-time alerts on news and insights tailored to your portfolio and stock watchlists. Get your Morning Brew Daily T-Shirt HERE: https://shop.morningbrew.com/products/morning-brew-radio-t-shirt?_pos=1&_sid=6b0bc409d&_ss=r&variant=45353879044316  Listen to Morning Brew Daily Here: https://link.chtbl.com/MBD Watch Morning Brew Daily Here: https://www.youtube.com/@MorningBrewDailyShow Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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Good morning brew daily show. I'm Neil Fryman. And I'm Toby Howell. Today, Warren Buffett sells even more Apple stock. Did someone leave him out of the group chat? Then TGI Fridays has a case of the Mondays, the potato skin purveyor officially filed for bankruptcy. It's Monday, November 4th.

Let's ride. Good morning and happy Monday. We've got a huge week in store, but our sense of time has been thrown out of whack. Daylight saving time ended early Sunday morning, giving most Americans an extra hour of sleep, more darkness in the evenings, and absolute chaos among the household appliances.

My phone says one time. The oven clock says another. You know, Toby, I'm one of those people where if I don't fix the oven clock within 24 hours of the time change, I just leave it until March. The problem is that it's not just your oven anymore. All of our appliances are smart these days.

So your fridge, your coffee maker, your microwave, your toilet might all be saying different things at this point. Still, no one is as confused as your pets right now. Dogs don't know about daylight savings. All they know is they're getting. and walked at a different time. Cats can't read a clock. So they're saying they're wondering why they're getting fed later. Kids as well have no idea what's going on. So every time you're

confused, just think about how the pets and the babies are feeling. Now a word from our new sponsor, but an old friend, Yahoo! Finance. Neil, our purple prince is back. Back and better than ever, too. It's still the best place on the internet to keep your finger on the pulse of the market, but with even more features for people who like to dig a little deeper. Right. If you're someone who relies on your friend from college to tip you off on new stocks to buy. Maybe try out Yahoo Finance instead. They have this premium feature called investment ideas that does the hard work for you, giving you price targets, outlooks, and ratings backed by detailed research reports. Way better than listening to Josh from your freshman year dorm.

If you want to finally lose Josh's number and become the friend who everyone goes to for advice, head to yahoofinance.com for more. Spring is the season everyone refreshes everything except their blinds. put it off because they think it's complicated. But at blinds.com, we've spent 30 years proving it's not. Right now, you can save big during the spring Cyber Monday sale. Whether you want to DIY it or have a pro to handle everything from measure to install, we've got you.

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And because those chambers hold America's purse strings, there are huge consequences for economic policy next year and beyond. The battle for Congress was underscored on Saturday when GOP House Speaker Mike Johnson said that his party would probably roll back the Chips in Science Act, the bipartisan 2022 law that set aside $53 billion to companies producing semiconductors. Johnson quickly walked those comments back and said the Chips Act is not on the agenda for repeal. Important context, he made the remark in a New York district that is receiving a new $100 billion micron chip plant because of the Chips Act. But the brief dust up highlights the stakes in this election for the next president's economic

policy agenda. Will Kamala Harris or Donald Trump face an oppositional Congress that blunts their ability to their plans or a friendly cooperative one. And in recent decades, it's always been a friendly one. No incoming president has taken office without their party's control of the House and Senate since George H.W. Bush in 1989. And that's allowed them to enact signature legislation early into their terms. For instance, former President Trump's tax cuts in 2017 and President Biden's Inflation Reduction Act in 2022. So tomorrow's election will determine whether there's a united force in power in D.C. or a divided government, and trillions of dollars are on the line.

I know, Toby, as you know from Schoolhouse Rock, only Congress can make changes to the U.S. tax code, and there will be changes coming next year. Control of Congress is going to determine the fate of trillions of dollars of tax cuts, Trump's tax cuts that you mentioned from 2017. A big chunk of them are going to expire. Trump wants to extend them, and Kamala Harris wants to keep them for the middle class, raise taxes on the wealthy and corporations boost that corporate tax rate up from 21% to 28%. They can't do any of that without Congress. Congress is the only body that can change the tax code. There's a $2.3 trillion gap between their tax plans. So it really depends on which party controls Congress, whether there is that united force.

There's all Democrats or all Republicans from the White House on down to make these particular tax code changes. Also, for Kamala Harris, she has a lot of economic policy ideas that couldn't be done without Congress. I'm thinking those subsidies for first-time homebuyers, that $6,000 tax credit for parents with newborns. Those would not be able to happen. She'd have to compromise if there were a Republican senator of Congress. Interestingly enough, though, Trump's big signature economic proposal, which we've talked about a lot, is hired tariffs just across the board. Coincidentally, though, you don't need congressional approval to enact tariffs.

like that. So maybe Trump doesn't need Congress to be as favorable or as united as potentially Kamala Harris would going in because his big thing that he's just been sprouting from the rooftops is that he wants to enact these across the board tariffs, which do not need congressional approval. So where does the race stand? Looks like the math is pretty tough for Democrats in the Senate. They do currently control the Senate. But just the way the math works out with how many seats they're defending and the way the tide is turning, it looks like there is a probability that they will lose the Senate. Meanwhile, the House is a complete toss-up. It's going to depend on those New York districts where that are getting the micron chips and other other beneficiaries of the CHIPD Act as

well as some swing districts in California. So that will be absolutely something close to watch. Let's get to some other election-related headlines from the weekend. First up, CEOs seem to be sweating this election cycle more than any other. And it's showing up on conference calls this earnings season. The word election has come up on 100 earnings calls of S&P 500 companies between September 15th and October 31st, the most mentioning the word during that time frame back to 2004. There's just so much uncertainty in boardrooms across America. Yeah, and one thing the market does not like is uncertainty, unpredictability. So you're seeing all sorts of companies, maybe trying to rein in hiring a bit, maybe putting pause on some of those major infrastructure or industrial

projects because you just don't know what lies ahead. I mean, we literally said there's a $2.3 trillion gap between the tax plans of the two candidates. So that is why you're seeing, I would also love to see a counter of mentions of the word uncertainty or unpredictability or just general trepidation that these CEOs are feeling right now. And we're seeing it manifested in just the amount of times that they are saying the word election and referencing election on these earnings calls. Next, for all those election investors out there, which is something I haven't said before, the 2024 election. You might have noticed a change on prediction markets. Harris has narrowed Trump's lead significantly. For instance, last week on the platform, Kalshi, Trump boasted 64% odds of winning

the White House. As of last night, Kalshi showed 52% Trump and 48% Harris. That change was fueled in part by a shock poll in Iowa on Saturday night. A highly regarded pollster named Ann Seltzer showed Harris leading Trump in Iowa a potential outcome that no one, not even the campaigns, had thought possible. is certainly an outlier. Other polls show Trump with a big lead in the state, but it definitely has caused some investors to switch up their calculus. Right. You can point to any number of things, maybe the fallout after the Madison Square Garden rally and the Puerto Rico joke, this new Iowa poll for the reason why the prediction markets are converging. But maybe the most simple explanation is there was this huge delta

between what the prediction markets were showing and how close of an election the polls are kind of forecasting it to be. So of course, there is maybe some. potential money to be made by taking Harris at numbers that a lot of people thought were undervaluing her actual chances of winning the election. So could just be a Delta, could just be maybe these polymarket whales, maybe these Colchee whales are just trying to cash out on their positions now. But it is startling to look at just how quickly it was over a matter of hours and days that they completely converged and now are showing a tighter race than they have previously.

Here's another election stat that might explain why you can't watch TV anymore. there has been nearly $1 billion spent on political ads in the last week alone, according to ad impact. To put that in perspective, it took just seven days to spend one-tenth of the $10 billion in total that's been spent on ads since the start of 2023. That is mind-boggling. I was thinking, how could you possibly spend a billion dollars in seven days? But then you start thinking a little bit, I mean, Kamala Harris rented out a day on the sphere to advertise her campaign, put a picture of her up on there, cost $450,000 a day to advertise there. But also, just think about all the channels and all the different places you can spend money to advertise at this point.

YouTube, Facebook, Snapchat has become a really big channel as well. Back in the day, there were like four major TV networks in the U.S. So you quite simply could not spend this much. Now it is much easier to spend a billion dollars. Finally, on Election Day, you're not only going to get democracy. You're also going to get some free stuff. Some brands are running promotions to help you vote and satisfy your sweet tooth. Krispy Cream, for instance,

is giving out one free glazed donut per person, and you don't even need to show proof that you voted. The ride share apps are also getting in on the election game. Both Uber and Lyft are offering 50% off rides for people heading to their voting stations, plus another $10 off if you go through their official voting platform. Meanwhile, check in with your company if you're getting PTO for voting tomorrow. According to the SHRM employee benefits survey, half of employers say they've offered paid time off to vote.

What is funny about these freebies that these companies are giving away, is that it's technically illegal under federal election law to provide incentives to vote. The law has seemingly kind of overlooked these companies for a long time. One of the ways that you can get around it is what Krispy Kreme is doing. They're saying you don't even actually need to show proof of voting. They'll just take you at your word because as federal law states, you cannot incentivize people to go out to the polls and vote. So it's this weird legal gray area where probably you're not going to get in trouble for giving away a free donut,

but technically by letter to law, it is not legal to incentivize people to go out and vote. All right, let's move on. Warren Buffett's primary physician covered your ears because he is not following your advice that an Apple a day keeps a doctor away. Berkshire Hathaway's third quarter earnings reports revealed that Buffett used this past quarter to once again trim his biggest positions, most notably in Apple. He dumped about a quarter of his stake in the world's biggest company, making it four quarters in a row that Berkshire was a seller of Apple.

But what happens when you sell a stock, you get some cash, and boy, does Berkshire Hathaway have a lot of it. Like Smog from Lord of the Rings, Buffett and Co. are now sitting on a mind-boggling $325 billion in dry powder. That is up from $277 billion last quarter. Now, when you see the OG value investor, being a net seller this many quarters in a row, it has to make you a little nervous that he'd rather sit in cash than go deal hunting at current

market valuations. It is a little perplexing. Berkshire sold $36.1 billion worth of stocks last quarter and they bought just $1.5 billion. So that's the eighth straight quarter. They've been a net seller of stock. And if you're an investor, you look to Berkshire Hathaway as your North Star. So it is a bit curious and especially what Buffett said about Apple in May at Berkshire Hathaway annual shareholder meeting. He said Apple was an even better business. than Coca-Cola and American Express, which he's often praised. Those are some of his long-term holding. So what's going on?

Maybe a part of it is just him being a smart investor and taking some chips off of the table. Like if we're gamblers, we're just keeping going because we're just amateurs. And he's and, you know, if Apple hits a certain price and he says, all right, well, I'm, you know, that is where I am comfortable with this being. I'm taking, I'm selling now. and there's also some thing to be said about the tax regime that we had talked about. Buffett expects that capital gains taxes will be raised in the coming years, which tax you on your investment earnings when you sell them.

So he's selling them now. He's mentioned this to try to get ahead of those tax changes. And then again, treasury yields are also quite high still. And so he takes all this Apple stock that he sold all this cash, plows them into T-bills. He's now the largest owner of T-bills anywhere. He has more than the Fed. and he's making a nice return on them, so he thinks it's maybe a safer bet than the equities market. Let's also dive into Berkshire's operating earnings because they did report just their third quarter earnings.

They did fall from $10.7 billion a year earlier to $10.1 billion. Remember, this is kind of a nice cross-section of the American economy because Berkshire is so big. It owns things from insurance, the energy companies. So its actual businesses, which include AMX, Skyco, insurance companies, did decline 6%. but a lot of it was kind of chocked up to higher liabilities because if you're in the insurance business, what do we just go through a really active hurricane season? So Hurricane Helene kind of impacted its earnings bottom line a little bit. So just an interesting time to be at Berkshire Hathaway, though, because just you're sitting

on so much cash. Clearly, he doesn't see any good deals out there to deploy it. Warren Buffett is famous for just saying, I'm not going to chase a good deal of a bad company. I'm going to look for good companies. but I don't even know what he could buy these days. Well, I was looking at it. He has, what, $325 billion?

He could buy pretty much anything from Netflix on down. All right. Let's get Netflix folded into Berkshire's portfolio. This is feeling like the Mondays of Mondays right now for TGI Fridays after the chain filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy this weekend. It is a story we have been telling it for months now. Casual dining chains have been fueling the heat this year as customers have increasingly opted for quicker

and more cost-effective alternatives like, Polte or Shake Shack. The chain has also found it really hard to bounce back financially from the COVID-19 pandemic. The bankruptcy actually only affects 39 restaurants controlled by TGI Friday's parent company, not the rest of its 56 independent franchises. So if you're in need of Friday's signature whiskey glazeburger, you will still have options. Neil TGI Friday's first rose to prominence back in 1965 is one of the first singles bars in the U.S. But now the only relationships it has to worry about are the one between itself and its creditors as it tries to regain a foothold in a restaurant market that is increasingly apathetic to its offerings.

Really is. I mean, first, let's roll the tape on TGA Fridays because TGI Fridays, I was not familiar with your game. You popularized a lot of the things that we take granted in the casual restaurant industry. They say they take credit for popularizing the Long Island Ice Tea, which is a huge hit at these kind of places. They say it's bartenders. trained Tom Cruise to make drinks in the 1988

film cocktail. They say they popularized the concept of Happy Hour, and they also influenced office space because there's a famous restaurant in office space called Chachkes where everyone, Jennifer Anderson's character, whereas Flair and TGI Fridays, did popularize that concept as well. So it is a remarkable institution that has permeated our culture and our restaurant culture in ways that I didn't know about before looking at TGA Fridays when they've filed.

for bankruptcy, ironically enough. Unfortunately, their story is not unique when you look at the broader restaurant industry landscape right now. I mean, Bucca DeBapo is closing down 80 locations. It filed for Chapter 11, bankruptcy in August, Red Lobster, as we know, filed for bankruptcy in May and exited in September. So it's just part of this class of restaurants that people are just increasingly shunning right now.

It's both too expensive to compete with kind of maybe the Chipotle's of the world. Like, maybe the food isn't as good as like the shake shacks of the world. So it is just caught in this very. messy middle, except for one company we talked about last week, which was Chili's, who has just nailed it. They threaded the needle very well. They kind of created a dish, an appetizer dish that went viral on social media. So you are struggling right now, but as Chili's shows, you are maybe one dish away, one social media trend away from regaining your foothold in the industry. So maybe T.J.I. Fridays finds its fastball. Maybe people develop a taste

with their potato skins again, and we start singing the praises of this one. iconic institution. Up next, you know what time it is, winners of the weekend time. Own it all. Pay off your home, travel for life, drive a Ferrari. In celebration of the world premiere of the Monopoly, Big Board Buckslot Machine by Aristocrat Gaming, Yamava Resort and Casino at San Manuel is giving one person a $1.6 million dream package. The biggest prize in Yamava's history. Club Serrano members can earn daily instant prizes and secure a spot in the finale May 29th. Don't pass go and own it all. Only at Yamava, celebrating its 40th anniversary. You win, Details at yamava.com must be 21-20.

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Let's head to our winners of the weekend, the segment where Toby and I picked two things that really took advantage of that extra hour of sleep. I won the pre-show Bopit competition, so I get to go first. And my winners are Nvidia and Sherwin-Williams. These are two companies you don't often hear group together, but both of them were selected to enter the exclusive club of 30 stocks in the Dow Jones Industrial Average. Of course, two-in means two-out, so Intel and Dow Inc, you're getting the boot. The move is not expected to send shockwaves across these stocks

because so few investment funds track the Dow Jones compared to the S&P 500, but it is surely symbolic, especially in the swap of Intel for Nvidia. Intel used to be the king of the chipmakers, dominating the market for semiconductors used in personal computers. The introduction of generative AI has shaken up the pecking order. Nvidia's advanced chips used to train AI systems are flying off the shelf while Intel was caught flat-footed. Nvidia's stock has climbed 170% this year to become the second most valuable company in the U.S. Intel is down almost 40% this year and is now worth just 3% of Nvidia. Toby, the Dow says it re-shovels its index so that its 30 companies provide the most

relevant picture of the U.S. economy. Do you think it did that with these moves? Yeah, it definitely did it. I mean, the Dow still stinks, but it is trying to stink a little bit less. Firstly, they added Amazon earlier this year, now Nvidia's in. So they are trying to catch up to a more tech-forward look at the current economy. That being said, I do just want to. wanted to shout out Sherwin Williams a little bit, because you talked a lot about

Nvidia in that intro, but Sherwin Williams is a $90 billion paint company. So I was looking into kind of how they revolutionized the paint game over the years. First, they were the first to introduce a resealable paint can, which sounds like common sense, but at the time it was not. First, ready mixed paint as well. And then also they introduced the paint can shaker, which could mix up to five gallons of paint at a time. So customers could finally start purchasing more instead of just those small paint cans. So they are not just slinging paint. They have been a leader. They've been an innovator in the paint sector as well. It's got 5,000 stores. So much bigger company than you might have expected, not quite as big as Envidia, but I did just want to get him a shout out to

Sherman Williams. And he threw some shade on the Dow. So we should just explain why you don't think the Dow is a good index, which I would say is very largely accepted by the broader investing community. and that's because it is weighted by share price, not market cap. So whatever company has the bigger share price for whatever reason, maybe you don't cut your, you know, don't do a stock split, then you have a higher weighting in the Dow than a much bigger company that just has a smaller share price. So case in point in this is that Sherwin Williams will now have the sixth largest weighting in the Dow Jones while InVIDIA will have the 22nd largest weight.

And Nvidia is a much bigger company than Sherwin Williams. I just wanted to explain why the Dow is second tier compared to the S&P 500 as providing a picture of stocks. What a ridiculous index. I know it's iconic, but there's just no logic to that. My winner of the weekend is actually the second place finisher in the pro-women's division of the New York City Marathon, Helen O'Berry. Despite getting edged in the final mile of the race, O'Beri turned heads for her footwear. She is a sponsored athlete of On Running who outfitted her with a new. spray-on model called the Cloud Boom Strike LS. On utilizes a robot to literally spray a high-tech material directly onto the midsoles of the shoe, relying on what the New York Times described as a single

semi-translucent synthetic mono filament to create the shoe's upper. The result is this back-to-the-future looking boot-like running shoe that has incredibly light, environmentally friendly, and fast. It is weird looking, but O'Berry has now won Boston in a prototype, competed in them in the Olympics, and gotten second at New York. So, Neil, all I am saying is that I would have run a better time yesterday if I had been rocking some cloud broom strikes. Perhaps it's very interesting hearing what execs at On are saying about their overall strategy and these shoes in particular.

You know, right now they're competing against Nike and Adidas. They are an upstart and they're growing like a weed, but they're still competing against these legacy sneaker makers. and they say we have to innovate because Nike has the Air Jordans, Adidas has the samba that they can always fall back on and sell a lot and just keep reissuing them. On is a fairly new company. They don't have those traditional styles. So they say we need to innovate and they're doing something that is truly innovative in the sneaker industry,

which could lead to massive disruption if it were to be commercially successful. And that is the huge question mark whether this will be commercially adopted. but they have no choice but to innovate and release new styles and new methods that might catch on in order to chase the big guns. And it's not often that new shoe tech really comes around. I mean, Air Maxes from Nike was one of them at the time where they injected pressurized air into the back of your midsole. And then the carbon fiber plate in racing shoes, that was another big quantum leap forward. On is trying to really reduce the amount of inputs that go into making a running shoe. They say there's 75% less impact on the environment.

The reason being is that typical running shoes have 150 to 200 components that go into making it. The cloud broom strike has only seven because the entire upper is made out of one single material. I mean, I'm designing a pickleball shoe right now, and that 150 to 200 number is not an exaggeration. There are so many little pieces that go in. If we could have just painted the upper on, it would have made our lives a lot easier. Okay, but I feel like we're bearing the lead here. You ran the New York City Marathon yesterday, not in these particular shoes. shoes in other shoes, but how was the experience? It was incredible. I just want to give a

shout out to you all, the listeners. You guys showed out in force. First, I got to give a shout out to Hunter from Australia who gave me a little pat on the back as he was running by me and said, hey, can I get a shout out on the pod? So there you go. Then also just lots and lots of let's rides out there that always gets the blood pumping. Although someone did yell Neil's numbers at me. I was like, that's right. I was like, what the heck? How is Neil getting the shout out right now? I also saw some beautiful Morning Brew Daily sign. So there was one really good one that was like stock of the week was Toby and it was like nice color. So if you made a sign like please email us, please send it to us.

But truly just wanted to give a shout out to everyone who showed out. New York you showed out. And Morning Brew Daily listeners, you showed out as well. It's Monday. So let's close out the show with some major events you need to know about for the week ahead. Gonna focus on not election news since there are in fact other things happening in the world. is the fourth time the charm for Boeing to end its strike. After rejecting the previous three offers,

33,000 on strike machinists will vote today on the company's latest offer to end a seven-week walkout that has frozen its manufacturing operations. The contract in front of employees includes a 38% pay raise, a $12,000 bonus for hourly workers, and bigger contributions to retirement plans over four years. Undoubtedly, the most important vote this week. Can't think of anything that surpasses this casting of ballots,

But no, this really is important. I mean, costliest American strike this century, $11.5 billion. Boeing is desperate. Need to see what the Iowa pose insults, sir, is saying about it. Speaking of things that have a large economic impact, the Fed is meeting and is expected to cut rates on Thursday, which would be the second time this year its lowered borrowing cost to preserve the job market. Remember, the rate cut in September was a meaty cut of 50 basis points.

This one looks likely to be that traditional 25 basis point cut. And with that in the bag, investors will be more focused on what Jerome Powell has in store for the rest of the year. Man, I miss the days when this was the biggest news of the week. We were counting down the days till Jerome Powell's rate cut announcement. Now it's regulated to a week ahead blur. But yes, all signs point towards another, albeit smaller cut. And just for a rule of thumb, if the job market continues to be strong, that means fewer rate cuts or less rate cuts. And then if the job market is showing signs of collapsing, that means more aggressive rate cuts.

Unfortunately, the job report we had on Friday was extremely confusing because of the two hurricanes and the Boeing strike through things out of the whack. So we don't really know what's going on with the jobs picture. It still looks like the Fed is going to cut by a quarter of a point. In sports, the road to March madness starts today with the start of the men's and women's college basketball season. Everyone will be looking up at 7 foot 9 Olivier Rue, a freshman at Florida and the world's tallest teenager. The guy can dunk a ball easier than I can breathe, but I can also sit in economy. So who's the real winner here? And if you're not in the holiday spirit already, Mariah Carey has declared its time.

Over the weekend, the singer posted a holiday hype video with a clip from her song, All I Want for Christmas is You, which is celebrating its 30th birthday this fall. I mean, I love that she leans into it. Most people would be too proud to lean into it, but she just every year comes out. It is great. I'm ready for holiday season this year. far too hot. If you made as much money as she did on this song,

you would also lean into it. That is all the time we have. Thanks so much for spending your morning with us. We do appreciate it and have a wonderful start to the week. For any questions, comments, or feedback, send an email to Morning Brew Daily at Morningbrew.com. And as Mariah Cairo said, it's time

to start thinking of holiday gifts. And what better gift is there than sharing Morning Brew Daily with your friends and family? It's more creative than socks. Toby, who should our listeners gift Morning Brew Daily? with today. I want you to share the pod with someone who you think should run the New York City Marathon next year. I know you have the itch after seeing

everyone that lay it out there, but you need a training buddy. So send this pod to that future training partner. Let's roll the credits. Emily Milliron is our executive producer. Raymond Liu is our producer. Olivia Graham is our associate producer. Yuchinawa Ogu is our technical director. Billy Minino is on audio. Hair makeup is ready for that crispy cream tomorrow. Devin Emory is our chief content officer and our shows of production of Morning Brew. Great show today, Neil. Let's run it back tomorrow. Hey, honey, it's mom. Did you know if we switched to Verizon we can get four phones for $0,

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