Morning Brew Daily - Polymarket Fakes Creators Winning Bets & Fed Legend Alan Greenspan Dies at 100
Episode Date: June 23, 2026#873: A look back at the career of Alan Greenspan, former Fed chair, who passed away at age 100. Google invests $75M into A24 for a new AI partnership. A Wall Street Journal investigation found Polyma...rket faked videos of creators winning large bets on their platform. Toby’s Trends on Instagram testing horizontal longform videos on the app. SpaceX shares tumble after a $400B selloff and Alphabet shares fall after key AI researchers depart. To learn more visit https://www.servicenow.com Subscribe to Morning Brew Daily for more of the news you need to start your day. Share the show with a friend, and leave us a review on your favorite podcast app. Listen to Morning Brew Daily Here: https://www.swap.fm/l/mbd-note Watch Morning Brew Daily Here: https://www.youtube.com/@MorningBrewDailyShow This experience may not be representative of other Wealthfront clients, and there is no guarantee of future performance or success. Experiences will vary. Neal Fryman and Toby Howell, are clients of Wealthfront, receive cash compensation from Wealthfront Brokerage for paid testimonials in this podcast, creating a conflict of interest. More details available via the referral link. https://wealthfron.com/morningbrew New clients get 3.30% base APY from program banks + additional 0.75% boost for 3 months on your uninvested cash (max $150k balance). Terms and conditions apply. The Cash Account, which is not a deposit account, is offered by Wealthfront Brokerage LLC ("Wealthfront Brokerage"), Member FINRA/SIPC. Wealthfront Brokerage is not a bank. The Annual Percentage Yield ("APY") on cash deposits as of January 30, 2026, is representative, requires no minimum, and may change at any time. References to the APY for the Wealthfront Cash Account, including any APY increase, are to the APY paid by insured depository institutions that participate in our cash sweep program (the "Program Banks”). Wealthfront Brokerage sweeps cash balances to Program Banks, where they earn the variable APY. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
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Good morning for your daily show.
I'm Neil Fryman.
I'm Toby Howell.
Today, Polly Market's been exposed for a very sketchy, perhaps illegal, viral marketing scheme.
Then Instagram wants you to watch Reels on your TV.
It's Tuesday, June 23rd.
Let's ride.
Everyone's got that loud friend, the guy or gal whose voice seems to pierce through the air,
alerting everyone in a square mile of their presence.
But they've got nothing on Joseph McGrale bait up.
The Australian air conditioner cleaner and honorary town crier was crowned.
by Guinness World Records as the loudest person ever.
He shouted the word now at 122.4 decibels on par with the volume of a chainsaw, airplane
taking off, or an ambulance siren blaring close to you.
It's not necessarily a matter of practice because you can't for this kind of thing.
McGrail Beda said his cry of now destroyed his voice for the next several days.
This is the type of dude who somehow ends up as your upstairs neighbor in New York City.
His origin story is hilarious.
He became competitively loud, the AP wrote, when he was appointed the official, not honorary,
the official town crier of Canberra in 2017.
He makes announcements at community events, school events, car shows.
So he is, you know, gainfully employed as a town crier.
And he also now has a membership in the ancient and honorable guild of Australian town criers.
I'm glad that there is an honorable one and an ancient one because these people need a
a place to show off their talents.
I'm just curious how he settled on the word now.
Like, is that just the vowel structure?
You don't, like, I was thinking if you started with a P,
then maybe you're expending too much energy.
How?
On the, but you're expending too much energy on that particular syllable and that
constant.
So now, like, the N, you can burst off your tongue there and just go with a bit.
You stretch your vocal cords as big as they can go with now.
The previous record was, ironically, quiet,
which seems a lot more difficult to say, so I think he settled on the right word.
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Polymarket has been up to some very shady stuff. The prediction market has been paying
creators, mostly college age, to film themselves placing fake wagers on the platform in the hopes
of going viral. That's according to the Wall Street Journal, which published a wild investigation
into Polymarket's duplicitous scheme to become ubiquitous on the internet.
These reporters reviewed more than 1,100 videos made by 10 creators paid by Polymarket,
though there are more than 100 total.
In these videos, 70% appeared to place a bet on a website that looked like Polymarket but
wasn't.
Remember, this is all for show.
And 10% of those videos included fake or outdated footage that suggested they won their bets.
In those clips, traders were portrayed as winning $900,000, but in reality,
they would have lost more than 166,000.
Not only were these creators filming themselves placing fake trades,
but they didn't disclose in their post that Polly Market was funding the whole thing.
Only when the journal reached out did the accounts add, quote,
polymarket partner to their bios.
When asked about the whole thing,
Polymarket said in a statement, it was, quote,
committed to maintaining accurate, fair, and transparent markets.
We are part of a rapidly growing industry and are constantly evaluating ways to improve
how we're engaging in earning the trust of our audience.
Instead would conduct an audit of all active.
promotional content. This is crazy, Neil, a crazy story. I'm just going to give an example of this
happening on an individual creator level. So there's this college creator, George Machiara.
He posted a video of himself winning $100,000 because Trump supposedly said the world
McDonald's during a speech. But here's the issue. Trump never actually said McDonald's that month
and actually the reaction footage that he was supposedly watching happened two months prior.
So it was a completely fabricated market that actually, if you had bet on that, you would have lost.
So that's when red flag started to come up.
People said, this is literally an alternate reality.
What is going on?
Wall Street Journal dove a little bit deeper and saw that this was not an accident.
It was actually a conscious choice and marketing tactic by Polymarket.
Yeah, I mean, this thing goes levels deep.
First of all, like I said, they made these not only were they simulated trades, but they made them on simulated sites.
they created these dupes of polymarket.com.
One of them was polymarket.com.
Well, actually, the L in the middle of the Polly was actually an uppercase eye.
So this goes down layers so they could make these fake trades.
And the other thing that is key to this entire scheme is paying a third-party vendor,
another marketing company, to make these videos go viral.
Because on their own, they necessarily wouldn't have gone viral.
but they're getting these lower wage people overseas to just clip these videos and then send them
nuclear across the internet so that people see them.
And it worked because these were huge videos.
By the way, this is modern marketing, whether you like it or hate it, because again,
we've spoken about this on the show before, but a streamer discusses a polymarket trade
live.
Creators then make videos of themselves doing it.
There's this underground network of clippers that boost it to the algorithm of virally.
Some people can do this legitimately.
Others like Polly Market were doing it illegitimately, but I do think that is a peak into
how these internet native companies are getting their product out there.
We have spoke about the fact that it seems like every viral moment suddenly has like a
polymarket or a Kalshi logo on the bottom of it.
This is just how the world operates right now.
Wall Street Journal peeled back some of the layers to show that it's not operating
legitimacy. The biggest one is that you have to disclose a paid partnership when you are
receiving money for promoting a product. But I do think it's an unfortunate window into where
the marketing world is heading. Yeah, I mean, for Polly Market, the founder, Shane Copeland,
has said that they want to be impossible to ignore online. Virality is everything. And you have
to look at this in the context of its rivalry with Kalshi. So these are probably the two biggest
prediction markets. Polymark is not actually available to U.S. users.
when this industry really got going a few years ago,
Polymarket had a huge lead over Kalshi,
but Kalsi is making up a ton of ground.
Last month, Kalshi had about double
polymarkets trading volume.
And so if virality is the currency for both of these companies
and they're fighting for market share,
then both of them are trying to go viral online.
Polymarket is cutting a few corners to do that.
It just seems a little short-sighted
because if you want to be viewed as a serious financial,
a part of the serious financial infrastructure,
but then simultaneously you are doing this on the background.
You are kind of shooting yourself in a foot a little bit.
Like, why would you, in your fight with Kalshi,
in your argument that it needs to have a bigger role in finance,
would you do something where it kind of undermines all of that progress
that you're trying to make?
So it feels like a short-sighted versus a long-term goal.
Those are a little mismatched right now.
And we'll see whether regulators like the CFDC begin
an investigation because this is also a gray area that could possibly be violating some marketing
laws. Moving on, former Fed chair, Alan Greenspan, the most influential central banker of modern
times, has died at 100. Often described as a maestro, Greenspan orchestrated the economy
through boom times of low inflation and low unemployment, celebrated widely for his policy,
instincts, and mastery of data. He was also just a larger-than-life figure, earning the type of
celebrity status and name recognition, you wouldn't normally associate with a central bank official.
Needless to say, if Morning Brew Daily had been around in the 90s, you'd hear Greenspan mentioned
as much as we say AI now. One of the reasons Greenspan was so prominent in public life was his
longevity. He served as Fed Chair for 18 and a half years, the second longest tenure ever. He was
first appointed by Reagan in 1987, then reappointed another four times by four different presidents
of both parties, including both Bushes and Clinton. To some
up just how popular Greenspan was. When John McCain was running for president in 2000,
he was asked whether he would keep Greenspan on as Fed Chair. He replied, quote, not only would I
reappoint him, but if he died, we'd prop him up and put sunglasses on him as they did in the
movie weekend at Bernice. But since Greenspan left the position in 2006, his star has dimmed
a little because of what happened two years later, the financial crisis, America's
worst economic downturn since the Great Depression. Critics say Greenspan's hands-off approach
contributed to the disaster by enabling Wall Street to take riskier bets that eventually blew up
the housing market and the rest of the economy with it. Either way, Toby, this guy leaves behind a
monumental legacy. BBC called him the architect of the modern American economy.
He created something that was called the Greenspan put as well, which became a very central
concept to modern finance. Basically, investors came to believe that the Fed would step in with
interest rate cuts or a liquidity injection whenever markets crashed. And market
did crash under Greenspan.
But the result is investors basically believe that the Fed would come in and socialize any losses
that would happen.
And some people said that that led to over exuberance and excessive risk taking.
Greenspan had this very central belief that markets would do well.
They would cleanse themselves.
They would operate well under less oversight.
But if you look back on his tenure, maybe he did get over in front of his skis
little bit. It did lead to the exact
fomenting of the conditions that led to the financial
crisis. But the Greenspan put is something that
without him, you know, who knows what the market would
look like now because it was just so central to that key
moment in time when he was managing the Fed.
Yeah, we saw that maybe after COVID when
Jerome Powell was leading the Fed at the time, kind of took out
the bazooka and did everything they could by injecting
liquidity and lowering interest rates to near zero to keep
the economy afloat. And that worked.
One of my favorite things about Greenspan is that he was also central to developing offbeat economic
indicators. We've talked about the lipstick index and these other ways of looking at the economy
because maybe unemployment or job growth or GDP isn't the best way of seeing what's actually
going on in the economy. So he developed a couple of these. One of the most famous ones is the
men's underwear index where if you're trying to see what's going on in the economy, whether
people are getting a little anxious. It's you look at men's underwear sales because if you're
a little stressed financially, just going to keep wearing the same pair, but if you're feeling good,
you might shell out for a new one. And the other one is the cardboard box indicator. He really
was clued in on the prices of liner board, which is the raw material for cardboard, to see
whether how the economy was doing, because maybe high demand for shipping boxes was an early
indication that manufacturing retail activity was going up. I thought it was fascinating that he had
a deep friendship with Anne Rand, which, by the way, I thought they existed in different moments.
in history, but no, they hung out a lot. They were part of each other's inner circles. In her
philosophies on markets absolutely influence how Greenspan saw the world. She believed that
free market was a moral social system that if you leave markets alone, trade aligns with human
nature and rational self-interest. That was Anne Rand's thought process. You can see it in Greenspan's
policies as well. He truly believed financial institutions would regulate themselves, which again
sounds naive at this point, but he thought that banks wouldn't want to destroy
shareholder value, they would want to protect their reputations. Markets would become the self-correcting
entities. But as a result, you know, that led to the, again, the conditions that had Bear Stearns
blow up and eventually the housing market blow up as well. So his legacy and his kind of central
thought on the market is absolutely something that was challenged later on in his life. But at the time,
again, I can't stress enough how he was viewed as this maestro who just guided the,
economy through multiple periods of massive boom times that we'd never seen before.
Moving on, A24, the studio behind basically every movie that isn't a sequel or a superhero saga
is taking an investment from Google.
Google is forking over $75 million for its first ever ownership stake in a movie studio
to develop AI tools alongside the minds that brought you Moonlight, Marty Supreme, Uncut Gems, and
backrooms.
At first glance, the two appear to be odd bedfellows.
The movie industry doesn't exactly love AI and its job-threatening potential.
So the A-24 stands for artificial, one pessimistic Redditor commented on the deal.
But A-24 in Google's Deep Mind AI unit framed the tie-up as more of a research partnership
designed to come up with new workflows and techniques for filmmaking, not replacing creatives.
The news comes at a time where Hollywood is on a bit of a hot streak.
Toy Story 5 just had the biggest domestic opening since a Minecraft movie, which means the
domestic box office is sneakily off to its best start since before the pandemic.
824 contributed to that total with the surprise smash horror hit backrooms which brought in
$300 million worldwide. Which is why Neil, I think we're seeing some trepidation about this
investment. A24 is the most successful independent film studio of the last decade. So to hear
their name in conjunction with AI tools was disappointing to some. Yeah, A24 seemed to want to get
The head of the potential criticism, Scott Belski, who's an A24 partner, said that the new tools that they might develop with Google DeepMind, quote,
won't look anything like the prompted generation type of AI that people feel uncomfortable with.
They're framing this as just a way to make movies cheaper and more efficient, very similar to the line that Ben Affleck was taking because he developed this AI company that they eventually sold to Netflix a few months ago.
And they're just saying, look, we have these tools available.
and there's a lot of busy work that goes into just actually making the movie.
We're not going to use it for the creative process at all.
But we might as well use these tools and bring it to Hollywood in a way that makes all of our lives
easier and we can make movies at a lower price.
It's interesting from A24 though, because they have this reputation as being this great
place for emerging filmmakers to make their debuts.
They resonate heavily with young audiences.
It's one of the only studio brands that audiences seek out because of the brand name
itself. And yet here they are kind of engaging with AI, which is clearly something that their
audiences tend to dislike. Kane Parsons, who directed backrooms, which is the studio's highest grossing
film by a long way, called AI genuinely harmful in a signifier of cultural and economic rot.
So even though they're trying to, you know, heads their bets and saying we're not going to
use it to replace creatives, it feels like a weird deal for them to strike for sure.
Yeah, let's do back to the box office, though, because you mentioned that, I do
want to emphasize just how much people are going to the movies this year. It's a truly great movie
year. AMC just reported that had its busiest weekend of 2026 after Toy Story 5. So that opened to
$160 million, the biggest opening weekend box office performance of the year. They also said
that was the sixth movie title in the past three months to open to more than 75 million. You had
backrooms, Mandelorian and Grogu, Devil Wears prodded to Michael Super Mario Galaxy movie.
and Project Hail Mary. So we're on pace potentially for $10 billion in box office revenue this year.
We haven't got there not even close since COVID. I mean, regularly before the pandemic,
we were seeing with all these superhero movies coming out, we were regularly getting over
$10 billion in box office revenue right now near the midway of the year. We're at 4.46.
So for the first time in a while, movie theater owners are saying, wow, you know, thank you, A24.
Thank you all these studios for giving us some good product. People, young people want to
actually go to the movies. It's crazy because that is multiple genres that are working.
Like Michael and Devereaux's Prattat II and the backrooms, those are all very, very different
audience is right there, which is why you're seeing this robust box office. Also, looking ahead,
the pipeline looks very strong. There is a big superhero movie coming. Spider-Man,
brand-new day, that will make a lot of money. The Odyssey as well, Supergirl, and then Moana
has another. I actually don't even know if it's an animated or not. I think it's a live action.
It's a live-action, Moana coming. So this is, this is.
going to be a very good year for movies and continue to be a very good year for movies.
All right, we're going to take a quick break and come back with Toby's trends right after this.
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So after a long day at work, you might find yourself plopping down on the couch,
making some popcorn, turning on the TV to watch Instagram content.
That is the photo sharing app's vision, a vision I want to talk about on today's edition of Toby's
trends. Pull out your phone right now and give Instagram a scroll. Chances are you'll come
across a horizontal video amidst the more common vertical videos. That's exactly Instagram's
intention and it's why yesterday announced it's testing out horizontal content on its
pre-existing Instagram for TV app. Instagram VP Tessa Lyons has called TV the next frontier for the
platform, and it's actively encouraging creators to make content that looks a lot like normal TV.
That means nudging people towards longer-form videos, episodic content, and serialized storytelling.
By testing horizontal video format specifically designed for larger screens, it runs directly
against the vertical video trend that has dominated social media since the rise of TikTok.
But Neil, Instagram on TV feels definitely a little weird.
Scrolling IG feels like a distinctly small screen activity, but when you realize that Instagram
is competing for the same eyeballs, Netflix, and YouTube and HBOR, the vision becomes a little more clear.
Last year, the writer Derek Thompson wrote an essay called, quote,
Everything is Television.
And that seemed to be very prescient.
He said it a couple data points here.
More than 80% of the time spent on Facebook, more than 90% of the time spent on Instagram
is spent watching videos and not actually doing social media.
Most of that time is actually spent watching videos from creators that you have never met
and you don't even know. Meanwhile, podcasts are also moving in the, quote, television direction.
Consumption of video podcasts is growing 20 times faster than audio-only ones. If you want to know
the biggest podcast platform on the planet, it's not Spotify or Apple. It's actually YouTube.
So it's very interesting to see these social media companies move to their maybe logical endpoint,
which is USA channel. Everyone is moving into everyone else's territory. That's another way of framing it,
because YouTube already dominates T-viewing.
It just passed Netflix and in U.S. television viewership, which is crazy.
Netflix just added a vertical video clips feed where you can watch short-form video content.
And they're also making a big push into video podcast.
TikTok has its own microdrama business where it's creating its original content.
Instagram obviously is moving into TVs as well.
So the distinction between the social media company and just traditional media company
has completely blurred a long time ago because everyone, as I said, is fighting over those same
eyeballs. So you've got to be everywhere, everywhere all at once, little 824.
Everything everywhere all at once.
You got it. But what do you think? Like you're the Toby's Trends Whisper. Like, do you think eventually,
maybe not now, but in a year or two, it won't be crazy to go sit on your couch and then
fire up the Instagram app and see what's going on? I think right now, part of the reason why
horizontal video is so in is because one, it interrupts your pattern scrolling on social media
because if you're seeing a lot of vertical videos, when you come across a horizontal one,
you just pause for a little bit and say, oh, this is something different. Also, horizontal feels
more premium right now. It feels more associated with things like TV or movies. We are
currently in this age of cinematic social where people are putting much more time into their
videos that are longer. They have like these narrative arcs. Like you come back. You come back.
to these accounts week after week to watch the same thing. So right now it is definitely the trend
de jour on social media. Will that ever actually translate into plopping down your couch? Maybe.
I don't know. It's pretty easy to watch on my phone right now. But clearly people like unwinding
with, you know, content on their TV. I never thought that podcast would be a popular thing on TV,
but now they are. So all that's to say, I definitely think it is something that is happening
on your phones. It remains to be seen if it will translate to your TVs. Let's sprint to the finish
with some final headlines. Remember when SpaceX was a bigger company than Amazon and Microsoft?
Well, it's not anymore. Shares plunged 16% yesterday for their worst trading days since going
public after following another 8% combined over the previous two trading sessions. The three-day
sell-off has erased more than $600 billion in market value after the company's Blockbuster IPO 11
days ago. Remember, SpaceX price shares at 135, opened at 150, then roared to 225, briefly becoming the
world's fourth most valuable public company. Now the stock is back near 155, barely hanging above its
opening price. Why the drawdown? Investors seem rattled by SpaceX's first ever bond offering,
where it's looking to raise $20 billion to fund its AI ambitions, which raises questions about
future debt costs. There's also growing concern that upcoming lockup expirations could unleash a
of insider selling and pump up the stock's tradable share count, which is still small right now.
Deal, whatever the reason SpaceX has returned to Earth.
Yeah, and it's not the only big tech stock getting bruised up.
Google parent alphabet tumbled 5% yesterday for its worst day on the stock market in more than a year.
Wall Street is getting spooked after two leading AI researchers left for rivals.
Noam Shazir, the co-lead of Gemini, is joining Open AI and John Jumper,
a Nobel Prize winner and VP of DeepMind, absconded for Anthropos.
topic, investors are worried that Google is losing the war for top AI talent, especially after
it raised $141 billion in debt and equity to fuel investments.
One other reason why Google may have had a little bit of a rough go of it is not their
A24 investment.
Over the weekend, Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella told the Wall Street Journal that the AI market
is becoming increasingly commoditized.
His argument is that AI models are becoming interchangeable.
You can use Claude, you can use Open AI, you can use Gemini.
They're all basically the same.
So that makes it harder for anyone to build a lasting moat.
This has obviously been something a lot of industry watchers have warned about for a while now.
To hear it come out of Satya Nadella's mouth, that made, it just bruised the entire AI industry as a whole.
Couple that with the fact that Alphabet has raised $141 billion in debt in equity since last October to fund its AI buildout.
And that's part of the reason why we saw its stockfall yesterday.
And finally, Lino Messi made World Cup history, scoring the most goals of any player in the 12th.
ornament ever. Messi added two more goals in Argentina's win over Austria, bringing his total to
18 across six World Cups. But he probably can't help but look in the rearview mirror because
another superstar is fast approaching. Francis Killing Mbapé also scored two goals yesterday,
bringing his World Cup total to 16, just two off of Messi's record. And Norway's Erling Hollande,
a Viking who decided to play soccer, has already notched four in his first World Cup. In fact,
these three goal scoring machines are putting on a dazzling display every time they step on the
pitch. Yesterday was the second straight group of games where Messi Mbapé and Halan scored at least
two goals. Rinaldo must feel left out. When we were putting the show together yesterday, we're like,
we should probably do something on the World Cup. What do you think will happen? And we were like,
well, Messi's probably going to break the all-time scoring record. And he did so to put his longevity
into perspective. Messy's first World Cup goal came in 2006 when he scored against Serbia and
Montenegro. Serbia and Montenegro is no longer a country. They, they,
They are two different sovereign nations now.
That's how long he's been at it.
I do think, I mean, you mentioned the rear-view mirror.
Mbapé is hard to ignore.
He has 16 goals in 16 games.
It took Messey 28 games to score 18 goals.
So he is coming, and then Holland is also coming.
Yeah, I mean, the race for the, it's becoming a tournament within the tournament.
The race for the golden boot, which is who can score the most goals in any given World Cup.
And right now we have Messi with five because he scored a Hattrick in his first game.
And then two last again yesterday.
And then we have Mbapé with four because he went two and two and Halan with four as well.
So I mean, people are locked in on the World Cup, but also we are very locked in on the golden boot.
And finally, I have to note, if you want to see Messi play again in the knockout stages,
it's potentially that he could line up against Cristiano Ronaldo and Portugal.
There's a quarterfinal game in Kansas City and prices are going haywire.
The get in price right now for a potential Messi Ronaldo, Portugal versus Argentine,
Tina, both of them in their last World Cups is just over $4,000.
But we do need to see that happen.
I'll probably be watching on TV.
That is all the time we have.
Thanks for starting your morning with us.
Have a wonderful Tuesday.
To share your thoughts on the episode or anything else,
send an email to Morningbrewdaily at morningbrew.com
or DM us on Instagram at MB Daily Show.
Let's roll the credits.
Emily Milliron is our supervising producer.
Raymond Lute is our senior producer.
Our producer is Olivia Graham,
and our associate producer is Olivia Lake.
Technical direction by Nina Miller,
Hair and makeup is chasing the golden boot.
Devin Emery is our president
and our shows of production of Born and Brew.
Great, show today, Neil.
Let's run it back tomorrow.
The Wired Newsroom is known for award-winning reporting
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