Morning Brew Daily - Regulating AI Hiring & Auto Sales Make A Comeback

Episode Date: July 6, 2023

Episode 97: Neal and Toby discuss the latest legal troubles for AI and whether ChatGPT's first decline in growth is a telling sign. Plus, the US auto industry is alive & well with soaring sales from major automakers, which could be a turning point for the economy. Then, a look at why retirees are investing into the stock market as if they're millennials, why Gen-Z is taking over golf, and what 3 straight record-breaking hot days could mean for the Winter. Lastly, Subway will start cutting deli meats in front of you and Japan Airline wants you to ditch the baggage and dress you up for your big trip. Listen to Morning Brew Daily Here: https://link.chtbl.com/MBD Watch Morning Brew Daily Here: https://www.youtube.com/@MorningBrewDailyShow Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Consider this comparison. PWC data found the percentage of CEOs who report revenue gains or cost reductions from AI is almost equal to the percentage who say they're still stuck. What separates these two groups? PWC points to a clarity issue. Even for CEOs, it's hard to tell what's AI hype, what's reality, and where this tech can make a tangible difference. Learn where AI can actually make an impact and what successful adoption looks like at

pwc.c.com slash U.S. slash brew AI. That's pwc.com slash us slash brew AI. Good morning brew daily show. I am Neil Freyman. And I'm Toby Howell. On today's pod, AI hiring processes come under scrutiny in New York City. And if you're traveling to Japan in the next year, why you might only need to pack underwear and a toothbrush. Then we'll tell you all about how the auto industry has made a surprise comeback after being down 3-1 to the pandemic,

before bringing you some big news from the footlong world. where Subway sandwich artists finally have a new toy to play with. It's Thursday, July 6th. Let's ride. All right, happy Threads Day, Toby. Meta launched its conversation app Threads last night in the biggest threat yet to Elon Musk's Twitter. Zuck said it got more than 10 million signups in its first seven hours.

Toby, you've been playing around with threads. What are your first impression? I'm in my threads era. My first impression is it feels kind of like Twitter. in the suburbs almost where it's a lot more wholesome. Everyone's kind of excited. They're seeing their friends there. There's a lot of celebrities that are kind of posting on it.

And my biggest, like, takeaway or what I'm looking for is, is it going to shift more towards the Twitter voice, which is a little bit more unhinged, a little bit meaner, honestly? Or is it going to stay in kind of like this wholesome era where people are just excited to mix it up with their friends again? So is it going to be like a Twitter voice or an Instagram voice? That's what I'm looking for. I will note when our videos get posted.

posted to Instagram. Instagram is by far the meanest platform in terms of comments. So I don't know how wholesome Instagram actually is. That is true. When I say wholesome, I mean just a little more memey and just big meme accounts kind of dominated. But you're right. We still love you Instagram audience, by the way.

We just put that. Yeah. You hold us accountable. We love it. All right. Let's start with big news in the HR and AI worlds. A New York City law went into effect yesterday that requires, firms using software to make hiring and promotion decisions to get their algorithms audited and

post them publicly online. It's a first of its kind law in the country. Using AI to sift the resumes has skyrocketed in popularity in the past decade. Nearly one in four organizations use AI to support hiring processes according to a 2020 survey. And that share grows to 42% when you're talking large businesses with 5,000 or more employees. So not sure if anyone was aware, but if you apply for a job at a big corporation, your application initially probably will not be seen by a human. Instead, it's going to be scanned by software, looking for keywords on your cover letter, and then it maybe passes you through to the next round. But AI recruitment comes with the same problem as human recruitment. I'm talking about bias, specifically gender and

racial bias. This New York City law, which could be copied by other cities and states, aims to hold companies more accountable for bias in their AI hiring algorithms by making them air their dirty laundry for all to see. Yeah, I feel like this is in direct response to how easy it became to apply to jobs online in the first of all, because you can machine gun fire out your resume to, with like one click on LinkedIn, you can apply to 500 places. So then there was this rise of AI screening in order to just sift through that massive amount of applicants. But this law doesn't, might not have the teeth that the lawmakers are expecting it to have because the language in it says that this technology will come into play when a, the algorithm is making a substantial, is substantially assisting or replacing a human decision. And that word substantially is something where companies are seeing a loophole. Because as long as the AI isn't deciding to hire someone, then they don't have to get it on.

it is what like legal experts are saying. So who knows how it the the spirit of the law is such that they want these algorithms to be less biased into not factor that into their decision making. But the leather of the law people are saying, well, that word substantially is going to give a lot of companies an out on this. Yeah. But maybe if it is, you know, if they do show something, it's not going to prevent it. It's like an indirect mechanism, right? It's saying you have to post your algorithm publicly online. And by doing so, you know, you're, you're going to feel shame or embarrassment if you have to if you have to show how you use hiring decisions and it is showing that you are degrading, you know, black people and women from from hiring because

of your AI systems. Yeah. It was interesting, too, that this law was first passed in 2021. So it was kind of predated the whole AI craze that we're in. So this has been a problem. Oh, this is a thing that's been going on for a long time. For a long time. This isn't like chat GPT doing stuff.

This is actual, not that Chad JPT is not actual AI, but this is, you know, previous era AI sifting through resumes. And it was interesting to look at, it's not just sifting through resumes and cover letters for certain keywords. You know, they, you can have an interview with a chat bot. And they're going to analyze your, they use machine learning to look at your, like, facial cues and the way you talk. And the AI is analyzing that. So you can see how that would have a lot of bias because humans are. training these AI systems. AI was seen as this way to be super objective in the hiring process, right?

Because I'm a hiring manager and I'm looking at you and you're like kind of good looking or something. And I'm like, oh, and then I say, what do you do in your free time? And you're like, oh, I love watching sports. And then I'm like, oh, this guy is a great candidate. I'm going to hire him. Like, we can be best buds. And then AI might not have that bias.

And that's the idea. But in effect, I'm coding the AI to look for certain traits. And historically, men, European, white people have been the top candidates, or they've certainly, like, dominated industries like tech. And so they might, you know, filter out, you know, women and minorities. Yeah. And we mentioned chat GPT in this conversation. We do just want to hit on, do a little check-in with chat chv-t since we haven't talked about it in a while. And it turns out that road ride traffic for chat chbti-t actually dropped in June.

So it was 9.7% lower than in May. and it's the first time traffic has fallen to chat CBT since its launch. So I don't know if it's panic time, like hit the panic button on AI, but it was interesting because a lot of people thought this was on a trajectory to just become the most visited site in the world. And now it's leveled off a little bit. We're seeing people spend a little less time on there as well. Some of the hypotheses were interesting why this went down.

Number one was summer break because a lot of experts are saying, The number one use case for large language models like chatGBT is do my homework. Right, right. So when kids are out of school, there's no homework to be done. And so they're just not using chatGBT as much. That is so interesting. That's definitely true. And honestly, OpenAI might not be that mad about it because it costs so much to Sam Altman, OpenAI, CEO,

says it's an eye-watering amount to run Chatchabit on a daily basis. And so experts have estimated it cost $700,000 a day just to keep it up and running. So maybe they're not panicking because, one, you mentioned some of the external factors. And then two, they're saving a little bit of money because there's just less pressure put on the website. All right, Neil, let's move on. We've declared this the summer of lots of things, the summer of Barbie, the summer of lost submersibles, the summer of blonde Toby. but what if it's really the summer of a different thing, the summer of cars? Okay.

Yes, that's right. Good old-fashioned automobiles are having themselves an unexpectedly fabulous first half of the year. New vehicle sales in the U.S. are estimated to have risen about 13% in the first half of the year, which totally caught off guard, a lot of industry forecasters, giving the rising interest rate environment, plus the inflationary pressure a lot of people are facing. So the star of the legacy auto show so far has been GM, who represents the biggest market share of the U.S. auto industry. And yesterday reported an 19% increase in sales in the second quarter. Plus, yesterday we talked about Tesla, whose deliveries jumped a whopping 83% from a year ago in the second quarter.

These are some pretty eye-popping numbers, and it seems like it's coming down to automakers finally figuring out their production and supply chain issues. Yeah, because during the pandemic, they couldn't get their chip. and people wanted to buy cars because they were flush with cash and, you know, their cars were getting old. But cars, but automakers could just not make enough cars to deliver to people. And there were not as many models out there. So you would go to the dealer and they'd be like, yeah, this is literally all we got. We can't make anything more. So they're finally being able to make enough cars of a wide variety to meet the demand.

And we're seeing it. It's pretty, it's pretty cool. Yeah, there's been auto industry experts are saying there's just been this huge flood of pent up demand. or people can finally buy the car that they wanted with the cash that they might have saved up. Earlier this year, the average age of a passenger vehicle on the road hit a record age.

A record high of 12.5 years. So everyone's like, I got a real clunker here. There's a lot of mature lemons out there. Yeah. Like, I mean, my parents, my dad's car has almost 200,000 miles and my mom's has also a lot of miles. Like these are old, they're not old cars, but they are seasoned.

They're veterans. and they're starting to look for a new car. And what's interesting is we just went car shopping over the weekend. And my mom was looking for a hybrid SUV, which is literally the intersection of the two growth trends, which is everyone's buying trucks and SUVs. And there's been a huge increase in demand for EVs. Yeah.

Yeah, on that note, well, first of all, just running through some of the automakers numbers, Honda sales are up 25% huge. Hyundai sales. Hyundai, Hyundai? God, I say that. I was waiting with entire story for you to try to say Hyundai sales are up 14% in the second quarter. And then even Rivian, who is the electric truck worker, who can't seem to deliver any vehicles, is figuring things out.

It reported a 59% increase from the previous quarter. That still only comes out to 12,640 vehicles. So it's not a, no, it's not huge numbers. But you're totally right that EVs are continuing to power, like the rise of the auto industry. Yeah. They accounted for 7.2% of all new vehicle sales, and they're already at over 500,000 vehicle sales for the year. And just to put that in perspective, last year, consumers bought only 800, just over 800,000

vehicles in the year. So we're already trending upwards. They're definitely the main growth driver. I think the fact that Tesla, a lot of these automakers, have started to use Tesla's standard charging infrastructure. That was one of the biggest barriers to entry for an EV is. like, where am I going to charge this thing? Tesla is the only one that has actually built out meaningful charging infrastructure.

And now that pretty much every big automaker and a bunch of the other EVs are saying, we're going to adapt our cars to be able to plug into Tesla's charging infrastructure. That's been a big relief to consumers who are who that is the main hang up for buying an EV. Yeah. And then finally, I know we always say we are not financial advisors on this show. But if you're looking for maybe a deal, two outliers of the. this trend of auto industry doing really well, were the Jeep Jeep makers Stalantis and Toyota, who both posted a 1% drop in U.S. sales for the first half of the year. So if you're looking for

a deal, they'll probably be looking to move some excess inventory because inventories have caught up, but if they're not selling, then they're going to start, you'll see those Toyotathon events and the big deal is coming. So not financial advisors, but maybe look at jeeps and Toyotas. All right, Neil, before we jump into the next story, we're going to take a quick break. It's time to refresh your yard during spring backyard days at the Home Depot. Get low prices guaranteed on propane grills starting at $179, like the next grill 3-burner gas grill, or get $50 off a select Weber Spirit grill and bring big flavor to your backyard. Then set the scene with Hampton Bay string lights that bring it all together.

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Okay, Toby, we are back with our Thursday segment, which I can't believe it's Thursday. I am so discombobulated this week. But Neil's numbers grounds me. And I know it's Thursday when I have to pick three different numbers or stats or facts or facts from the week's news that I've read, and I want to share with you and share with our entire audience. So, to start, older Americans are aping into stocks like their bored degenerate sports gamblers in the summer of 2020. Check out these stats compiled by the Wall Street Journal.

Almost half of Vanguard 401K investors over age 55 who actively manage their money have more than 70% of their portfolio in stocks. Back in 2011, it was just 38%. And then over at Fidelity, about 40% of investors age 65 to 69 had at least. least two-thirds of their portfolios in stocks. And the pattern holds even as you go up the age bracket, 20% of Vanguard investors, 85 or older, have almost all of their money in stocks compared to 16% in 2012. It's a bold strategy con. The conventional wisdom is as you get closer to retirement, you park your money in bonds or cash where you may not earn as big of a yield,

but your money is at least safe from the inevitable market crashes. But stocks have outperformed bonds for the past couple decades, then the Fed show, and it's going to step in during crises to prevent the market from totally bottoming out. So boomers are just saying, Yolo. It makes sense because, yeah, as you mentioned, the stock market is historically since, like, records were being kept, returned 7.2 percent. But in the last kind of since boomers have been alive, it's returned right around 10 percent. So, I mean, if you can get a bigger return, and yeah, as you said, like, the Fed plays a huge role in that, like, the backstop, the backstopping it, it yeah like bonds are just not sexy anywhere let's let's get into the stock i think the big thing is

inflation right so if you are thinking about putting your money in you know a t-bill or treasury right you're like well i'm going to return three or four percent and then i look at you know i listen to this podcast and i hear us talking about the fact that inflation is four or five percent you know i'm like well i'm not going to make any money anyway i'm losing money actually so might as well just kind of go into stocks but it is kind of risky i don't think i would employ this strategy as I'm getting up. Like, I would just getting up there in age. I would be a little safer because you just don't know what's going to happen to the stock market.

Obviously, it goes up into the right over the course of history and over the long term. But if I'm just trying to yank my money as soon as I get out of work. So you're like maybe the next generation is going to return back to the bonds. This is scary. I am, I don't know, maybe. Again, I'm not a financial advisor. But like, looking at these numbers kind of spooks me a little bit. I hope they're okay.

All right, moving on to our second one. We've talked a lot on the show about the surging popularity of women's college basketball and women's soccer. But today, women's golf could get its own coming out moment with a start of the U.S. Open, which is being held for the first time at California's iconic Pebble Beach course. The sport is loaded with young talent, and I guess this is my number here. Women in their 20s hold 19 out of the top 20 spots in the world rankings. So this is just like a lot of up-and-comers, youth movement. The name to know, though, and you're going to hear this name a lot in the coming years. Make sure you write this down.

Rose Zang. She's a 20-year-old phenom out of Southern California who recently turned pro and could be the Victor Wenban Yamma of Women's Golf, just a little shorter. And she went to Stanford, just like Tiger Woods. So a bright spotlight will be on women's golf this weekend. The U.S. open purse of $11 million is the biggest ever in the sport. and NBC is devoting primetime coverage to it on both Saturday and Sunday. So there's a pretty big investment going on here.

Rose is electric and we're not financial advisors. We're also not gambling advisors. But if you had to put money on someone, I think she's great value because she's plus 1100, right? She just wins. She won over half of her college tournament. She won her first ever start on the LPGA. So like Rose is the truth.

She is the Tiger Woods. And she set the course record for women at Penn. Heble Beach with the 63. It feels like great value. I'm hammering. Are you hammering rose? Yeah. But it's interesting because women's golf has not kind of taken off like a bunch of

other women's sports that we've talked about, like soccer, softball, what else? Basket. Women's College basketball was huge in March madness. And they're saying that, you know, women's golf is this massive opportunity with so many young stars, a lot of Americans coming through. Yeah. And they're just like not doing a good job of promoting their stuff. stars and capitalizing on it. I mean, the women's PGA championship a couple weeks ago had fewer

viewers this year than last year, even though it had like a star studded field. So this is, I hope they can capitalize on this moment. Yeah, I think this is a coming out party moment for sure, just because Pebble Beach also. Bebble Beach is iconic. So I'm going to be on in prime time. So we will be watching for sure. And you might lose a lot of money if you listen to Toby. That's for sure. All right. Our final number, Toby, it felt like I sweated out half my entire body weight on July. 4th, and it turns out I was not alone. Tuesday was the hottest day around the globe recorded by humans since at least 1979, and some scientists say it was probably the hottest day in 125,000 years. The global average temperature reached 62.92 degrees Fahrenheit. Why so hot?

Well, climate change for one, the start of summer for two, and then tack on El Niño's warming patterns, and it's a triple whammy for scorching temps. By the way, Monday was the hottest day on record before Tuesday broke it. And by the time we get out of the studio this morning, they could announce that yesterday was the hottest of all. Yeah, we're looking at a chart right now in front of us where it's showing global temperatures year by year. And this little like uptick is definitely noticeable. And you can see it. It's not good. Like it's not good. No, it's really not good. Because I was thinking over this past weekend, I was dripping sweat while being outside. And I was thinking, you know, I'm in Massachusetts, right? Like, it's not even that hot. It's 80 degrees. What

if I'm in Texas where this heat dome has been baking it for, uh, for two, three weeks now. You can't go outside. And AC is humming like crazy. Our grid is strained. Yeah. It's kind of a little freaky. I know. And I'm a summer guy.

I'm from Florida. But even this is, it's a little too hot for me. And in China, there was a massive heat wave. Beijing has seen temps of over 95 for nine straight days. Yeah. It's like a global phenomenon. The Antarctic is warming. It's, I'm not like a climate dumer, but it's something about that, the heat like

makes you, your brain go places. Yeah. All right, Neil, thank you for those numbers. As always, it is a pleasure. But let's move on. You know, I'm a subway guy, right? The sandwich place, not the transportation system. Well, subway has been going through some rough times recently. So the peak subway years were back in like the mid-2010s. 2013 is when the sales at U.S. locations hit 12.3 billion at a peak. But fast forward to 2021 and sales are down almost four. billion dollars from that peak. So Subway has started to reinvent themselves. They overhauled their menu, started hickory smoking their bacon, and double down on just more quality ingredients.

But as of yesterday, it made its biggest change yet. Franchisees are going to start freshly slicing their deli meats in store instead of having them arrive pre-cut. And so Neil, as a proud and unwavering Subway supporter, I for one am extremely excited about this. But would it make you go to subway more? I think that's the question. It's more just getting in line with kind of the industry standard because Jimmy John's, Jersey Mike's, even Firehouse, is slicing

their deli meat. And it just... See, I had no idea. And it doesn't matter to me. You're not as much of a sandwich connoisseur. What do you mean? I am the biggest sandwich connoisseur. I'm just saying, I don't know that Jimmy Johns and Jersey Mike slice their meat in house. Like, it is not a deciding factor for me when just, when

figuring out what sandwich place I'm going to go through. It's a huge deciding factor for me, because when you go to Jersey mics, it is like paper thin, it layers nicely, it feels like you're actually eating a deli sandwich versus Subway. It's kind of like thicker. It's wetter. It's not arriving and feeling in that fresh way, which is so weird because Subway's whole thing is eat fresh. They wanted fresh ingredients, and yet they're bringing this like old gray looking like turkey meat. It does not. Yeah, their turkey meat does not look good, but it's a big investment. Right. These things are so expensive. Each slicer costs 6,000.

dollars and subway spent more than 80 million dollars to provide these deli meat slicers so this is not a small financial uh thing by any means and six thousand dollars for a meat slicer yeah that's a lot i did a little um focus group yesterday i was asking people i saw saying i was like subway's going to introduce you know freshly cut meat in their uh in their stores like will that change your perception of subway will it make you go more and they were like the number one thing was like will it be slower oh interesting Because people think of Subway as convenience, fast. Right. And so I didn't hear like, oh, I could use less mealy turkey.

Yeah, that's true. I think their plan is to slice it throughout the day. So it's not like you order a sandwich and then it slice. Yeah. So people hate Subway too. Like, I've asked people about this too. And they're just like absolutely not. Like I haven't even thought about Subway.

I have good memories. Yeah. And it's also looking for a buyer. Oh, yeah, yeah, yeah. It's being sold. They're looking for a price of $10 billion, which would be the largest, you know, leverage buyout of a food restaurant company in a long time. I mean, the last one, last biggest one was in 2010 when Burger King sold for less than four,

or the parent of Burger King sold for less than $4 billion. And then Duncan was bought by the Arby's owner, Inspire Brands, a few years ago, for $8.8 billion. So, Subway is looking for a really high price. Maybe it's kind of boosting its price here with the little slices. It's the biggest restaurant, U.S. restaurant chain in the country. Right. There's so many subways. If you're driving in a rural area and you go to a town, there won't be a McDonald's

or a Burger King there. You will see a Dollar General and you will see a subway. They are everywhere. I think there's 37,000 stores globally. I love it. People don't know that. Maybe I should have used that from one of my numbers. So we got to it.

Okay. Our final story, I have a question. Would you rent airline? Would you rent clothes from an airline if it meant you had to pack basically nothing for your flight? Japan Airlines wants to find out. The carrier began a 14-month test yesterday that will allow passengers to rent clothes that will be delivered to their Airbnb or hotel when they arrive. For a price starting at about $28, you can choose from a range of clothing options

that for men like me and Toby could mean a winter basic set with a puffy coat, two sweaters, two pairs of pants and a sweatshirt, but you could get more formal clothing if you were traveling for business. The idea behind this is environmental sustainability. The more weight that an airplane holds, the more carbon emissions it produces. The plane just needs to do more work when it's heavier. Japan Airlines says that foregoing about 22 pounds of luggage on a flight from New York to Tokyo could reduce carbon emissions by 16 and a half pounds, which is the same as not using a hair dryer for 78 days. So if people decide not to bring anything, luggage on the plane because they're renting clothes from Japan Airlines. This could lead to

meaningful emission savings. But that's a big if. I think it comes down to two things on if consumers will actually adopt this. One, reliability. You need to show up and have your clothes be there. Like the one time they're not there and you're literally left naked out to dry. That's going to really change consumer perception. And then two, the fashionability aspect, I think is a big thing too. You don't want to wear clothes that are not in your style. You don't want to wear clothes that are ugly. So it does feel like a very meaningful opportunity for a Japanese retailer or someone to like partner with Japan Airlines to serve some fits, basically. It was a little surprising that they didn't launch with a retail partner. I think that would put some people at ease.

But you said that people say they don't like dressing not with their fashion, but I think a lot of people don't have a fashion sense. And they want people to dress them. So why not Japan Airlines? What if it comes along? I'm like, sure, what the heck? Like, they run a multi-billion dollar company. They maybe know what they're doing. Like, they could probably put some clothes on my bed and I'd wear them. I could totally see this being one of the, like, a business case study of best business pivots ever where suddenly people just love, like, the fashion delivery service and they just become like the stitch fix of Japan or something like that. The problem is the sizing, right? Like, we were talking in the control room before this and I was also, you know, this was my main worry is you get to Tokyo for a two weeks day. You have sweaters. You're swimming in the sweaters because a small is a little different than the small you wear.

You put on the pants and you can't zip them up. And then you're like, well, I am totally screwed because I literally have a toothbrush, deodorant, and that is it. Yeah. I don't know. I love packing light. So this is definitely for someone like me. This is real light. It would be nice not to have to fight over overhead bin space.

But talking about the actual environmental sustainability aspect is interesting because airlines are trying to cut back. they account for 3.5% of all carbon emissions. So it's a pretty substantial amount. And then a lot of countries are kind of cracking down. Remember, France is outlawing domestic flights where you could take a train for two hours and get there. So you can't even take a plane. It dovetails very nicely with your warming stat from earlier.

I know. So Japan Airlines, they're doing something about it. But apparently rental clothes is not necessarily like the greenest thing because I'm wearing it, I'm giving it back to you, you're putting in the wash, you're using all of these materials, using a lot of carbon emissions just to, you know, get it ready for the next person.

So many angles to think about. No, it's a super interesting story. That is our show, though. We'll have to leave it right there. Thanks so much for listening and watching. If you want to reach out to us, our email address is Morningbrewdaily at morningbrew.com. Also, head over to the YouTube channel

and let us know, A, if Subway Slicing its meat in store would make you go more. And whether you do this Japan Airlines thing, we can do a little focus group. Huge shout out to our crew who puts the show together. Bryce Beloff is the editor and producer. Samantha Bellas and Raymond Liu are the associate producers. Yuchinawa Ogu is our technical director.

Billy Benino is on audio. Hair and makeup melted into a puddle of foundation. Devin Emery is our chief content officer and our show is a production of Morning Brew. Great show today, Neil. Let's run it back tomorrow. Aw. Pay off your home.

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