Morning Brew Daily - Roaring Kitty's $116M Stake Sends GameStop Soaring & Spotify is Hiking Prices... AGAIN

Episode Date: June 4, 2024

Episode 336: Neal and Toby chat about ‘Roaring Kitty’s ability to move the stock market with simple, often cryptic posts. Then, Spotify is raising its price for the 2nd time in a year and why it may be in a unique position to do so without any blowback. Also, a mortgage lender offers 0% down payment to homebuyers which may echo the issues that led to the 2008 financial crisis. Meanwhile, American Express is finding new excitement among youthful cardholders looking to maximize its renewed benefits programs. Next, Toby examines the trend of dad sneakers becoming a hit in the running and fashion industry. Lastly, consumers prefer using laptops to make big purchases and why that’s problematic for retailers.  Download the Yahoo Finance App (on the Play and App store) for real-time alerts on news and insights tailored to your portfolio and stock watchlists. 00:00 - Berkshire Hathaway glitch 2:45 - ‘Roaring Kitty’ has lots of power 7:30 - Spotify asks for more money again 11:00 - 0% down payment too good to be true? 15:15 - Asics dad sneakers are cool? 18:45 - Amex is popular among GenZ 22:15 - Laptop v. Mobile shopping Get your Morning Brew Daily Mug HERE: https://shop.morningbrew.com/products/morning-brew-daily-mug?utm_medium=youtube&utm_source=mbd&utm_campaign=mug Listen to Morning Brew Daily Here: https://link.chtbl.com/MBD Watch Morning Brew Daily Here: https://www.youtube.com/@MorningBrewDailyShow Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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pwc.c.com slash U.S. slash brew AI. That's pwc.com slash us slash brewAI. Good morning brew daily show. I'm Neil Fryman. And I'm Toby Howe. Today, the zero percent down mortgage is making a comeback. But is anyone else getting 2008 vibes? Then check your subscription bill because Spotify is hiking prices yet again.

It's Tuesday, June 4th. Let's ride. Yesterday was a weird day in the stock market, which we'll get into in just a minute. but outside another bout of GameStop Madness, there was also a major New York Stock Exchange glitch that made a bunch of stocks appear to drop 99% in a matter of seconds. The most notable company to get hit by the glitch were A-class shares of Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway.

For a good chunk in the morning, its stock chart looked like a sheer cliff face. The glitch stemmed from a software update by a company the exchange uses to provide real-time stock quotes, and they halted trading activity and eventually got it fixed. But for a minute there, It looked like you could get the deal of the century. It was a weird day, Neil.

Yeah, the Berkshire Athaway stock was down from $620,700, which is a good reminder of just how expensive this stock is because he does not split his stock. And it plunged 99.97% to $185. So I was looking to buy the dip, but it wouldn't let me. Yeah, there are actually a lot of people posting satirical screenshots of them trying to get market order fulfilled when it was at a fraction of its price. One person said that they did actually get one fulfilled and they accidentally bought $631,000 worth of the shares on margin. So that person had a very bad day.

But yeah, eventually got everything settled. But the stock charts were funny because it really did populate as a 99% drop. So weird day, especially on stock Twitter as well. Now let's hear a word from our purple prints, Yahoo Finance. Yahoo Finance offers a suite of tools to help investors like you navigate the financial land. at their own pace. What that means is you can dive deep into GameStop's earnings report, check out their PE ratio, and dive into their financial statements all in one platform.

Or you can just look at a chart and see Green Line go up. The point is, the choice is 100% yours. It's like a run club. Go up and sprint with the sickos up front or take a load off and jog with some friends in the back of the pack. You choose your own pace. And whatever your investment sophistication is or whatever your financial objectives are, Yahoo Finance is there for you.

No running required either. You're scaring the people, Toby. If you're a finance pro or you're newer to the game, download the Yahoo Finance app on the Play or App Store for real-time alerts on news and insights tailored to your portfolio and stock watch lists. It's time to refresh your yard during spring backyard days at the Home Depot.

Get low prices guaranteed on propane grills starting at $179, like the next grill three-burner gas grill. Or get $50 off a select Weber Spirit grill and bring big flavor to your backyard. Then set the scene with Hampton Bay string lights that bring it all together. Shop spring backyard days for seven days at the Home Depot. Now through May 6th. Exclusion supplies to home depot.com slash price match for details. Roaring Kitty has picked a time to reveal just how much money he has and that time is Meow. The investing folk hero Keith Gill, better known as Roaring Kitty, sent meme stocks like GameStop

and AMC skyrocketing again yesterday. with just a few posts on social media. Remember, just three weeks ago, Roaring Kitty returned to Twitter with posts about GameStop, but it's one of his messages on Reddit he posted this Sunday night that's got everyone purring.

This post is an unverified screenshot of his stock portfolio. And it shows that Keith Gill, who was at the center of meme stock mania in 2021, has an absurd amount of money. Gill has built a position in GameStop worth about $260 million. That includes $5 million shares,

as well as 120,000 call options with a strike price of $20. GameStop stock spiked yesterday to the point where Gill at one point was up more than $300 million in his GameStop position. From the portfolio screenshot, Bloomberg calculated his net worth at as much as $485 million. Toby, this man has a superpower. He takes a position in GameStop. He posts on social media. The shares go up.

He makes hundreds of millions. We've never seen anything like this in the history of the stock market, but is this guy flying too close to the sun? Yeah, the big question is, is what he's doing legal? And it is such a gray area because you look at what his actions are. He's amassing a very large position in a publicly traded stock. He posts screenshots with zero commentary on that position, by the way. It's literally just a screenshot of his position. He posts these cryptic means and photos like the univor reverse card that you mentioned on social media.

It doesn't seem like there should be any issues with. that flow. But on the other hand, he is clearly manipulating the market in some way. He knows he has an audience. He owns the stock. Every time he posts something, the stock seems to go up. He amasses these positions before he posts something. So it is a very interesting case from a legal perspective because everything he's doing can fall into a gray area. And it really depends on which camp and how optimistic or pessimistic you want to be when you see the actions that he's taking. And some brokerages are getting cold feet. They're getting nervous about what he's doing e-trade, which is owed by Morgan Stanley, which is where Keith Gill trades on,

is reportedly considering kicking him off the platform over potentially illegal behavior. The Wall Street Journal reported yesterday. That's because they found that he bought all of these call options three weeks ago before he posted, and the stock went up, and they said, we really don't know if this is kosher. So they are considering booting him. But on the other hand, they're getting pushback internally because there is concerned that if they kick Keith Gill off the platform, then they are going to be in a lot of hot water with his legions of followers who are very powerful and can basically drive this business into the ground. If they say,

you kicked Roaring Kitty off, we don't want to be on your platform anymore. Everyone, you know, boycott E-Trade. That is a very real concern that they're considering right now. I think E-Trade would not be wise to do that. Because, yeah, unless you can prove that he is doing something illegal, you're right. You incur the wrath of this GameStop Army. What I want to know is Where did he get the money to amass this position? Bloomberg estimates he paid around $174 million for the position. That is a lot of money. Even if you go back to the absolute peak of the GameStop days back in 2020, 2020, 2021,

it is hard to amass $174,000 or $174 million. I've tried. It's not possible. We're all trying out there. So some people are asking, Matt Levine was like, did someone finance this trade? like where did this money come from? Maybe he used the run-up that he made happen three weeks ago and started amassing options, trades before that run-up,

use that to finance this next round of plays. But there's a lot going on behind the scenes here because this is serious money we're talking about. Yeah, if GameStop shares continue to rise, it's not out of the possibility that Roaring Kitty will soon be a GameStop billionaire. Meanwhile, this company itself is still, doing badly. It's going to report earnings next week. It's expected to

say that sales dropped 25% year over year. So, this is just a still a struggling company that's riding high on vibes alone. It truly is just vibes. Only Ryan Cohen was supposed to come in and turn the company around, but that did not happen. And right now

it is truly just kept afloat by the power of friendship and the power of memes. But Roaring Kitty is now potentially its fourth largest shareholder. So you could potentially launch an activist bid and change this company around if he has any ideas for how to get a brick and mortar video game retailer going again. As Smashmouth one said, the price hikes keep coming and they don't stop coming. When the song Bird of Our Generation wrote that lyric, I think they were talking about

Spotify because Spotify is hiking rates for its streaming service in the U.S. for a second time within the year. Your premium individual plan is going up by $1 to $11.99 a month, while a family plan is jumping three bucks to 1999 a month. But here's the thing. Spotify is like the anti-fed. The market loves it when it hikes its rates. Spotify finished a day up 5.7% and the stock is now up 67% for the year. Anytime you raise prices, the thought immediately goes to competition and Spotify does have boatloads. Its family plan is now 18% more expensive than Apple and Amazon's, while its individual plan is 9% more than Apple's and 20% more than Amazon's. But clearly, it is feeling itself and it thinks its subscribers are sticky enough to withstand yet another

price increase. Their subscribers are incredibly sticky. Spotify listeners are the least likely to cancel of any major video or audio streaming service in the entire United States. Fewer than 1.5% of Spotify users canceled in the month of April. They've built up these playlist. They've built up these profiles. I have all my starred songs. I have all my running songs.

I've built up this ecosystem within Spotify. that I don't want to leave. And you would think that Apple music, Amazon music, YouTube music, Spotify, they all offer the same thing. They all offer, I can listen to any music, I can listen to any song that I want at any point. But under the surface, there is a lot of sticking power to what Spotify has built. And that's been very impressive. And that's why they can raise prices like this.

It's incredibly impressive because they do seem to be operating from a disadvantaged position because they're competing on an uneven playing field, to put it frankly, because you look at these streaming or these. tech giants like Apple, like Amazon, music is a very tiny portion of their overall business, so they can use music streaming as a loss leader to just get people into their ecosystem. They can price it much more competitively than Spotify can, which is an audio-only company. That's their entire product. But there's also magic in the fact that they are an audio-only company.

People like the fact that Spotify is built around this one particular experience, and it's not part of a larger ecosystem of a big tech company. So it is interesting. It seems to defy reality in a way, but once you dig into the surface, you do see why Spotify is just so sticky. Netflix is similar where it is the only pure play streaming service among those major video players. It's competing against Amazon. It's completing against Max, who is owned by Warner Brothers Discovery, who has movie studios and TV channels and a lot of other stuff going on. So maybe this is a lesson in that stick to your lane, do it really, really well, and you will not get any cancellation.

You not get as much cancellation as the broader market because Netflix in the video space is the lowest cancellation rates of any streaming service as well. Yeah, I like this. This is a Bay Ruth moment. You like this, though. I like it from Spotify because it's essentially calling its shot saying we feel so good about our product. We feel so good about the value prop that we're providing consumers that we do think that you'll stick around even as we're bumping up prices. Yeah, I don't like it from a consumer perspective. But I like it from Spotify business perspective.

It does fly in the face of what we're seeing in the broader market, though, because a bunch of other companies across various sectors, including grocery that we've talked about, but not just grocery. They're offering discounts. It's hot summer, it's hot discount summer, as we said, but Spotify is continuing to raise prices. We've seen this from every streaming company, every subscription company over the past year or two is they're jacking up prices. So we'll see whether, we'll see whether customers balk at this, but investors do like the move. You know the phrase, Desperate Times call for Desperate Measures? It's happening in the U.S. housing market. With home sales frozen over due to high prices and even higher interest rates,

some mortgage companies are launching creative and controversial strategies to entice buyers off of the sidelines. And one of those is a down payment of $0. Yes, this is a thing. United Wholesale Mortgage, which is run by the billionaire owner of the Phoenix Sun's Matt Ishbia, unveiled a new program that lets qualified homebuyers purchase a house without an upfront down payment. Here's how it works.

Homebuyers take out two mortgages. The first one is for 97% of the home's value. That's the standard one. And then the second is a loan for 3% of the home's value or up to $15,000. That's essentially a stand-in for the down payment. And it does not accrue interest, but you will need to pay it back at some point. The program is currently open to first-time homebuyers or those making less than 80% of the local areas median income and United Wholesale Mortgage said demand is off the chart.

Toby, this sounds amazing in theory, but it is being met with a lot of skepticism. Many people are seeing shades of 2008 here. Let's take the sunny side first, because that's usually what I do. These loans can be good for some people, because if you look at a lot of homebuyers, the biggest obstacle to buying a home is usually the down payment. So the chance to get a 0% interest loan on $6,000, $10,000, $15,000 can free people up to enter the housing market for the first time. They also are, there's lending standards in place here. You have to pass a series of checks.

You got to have the appropriate debt-to-income ratio. Lenders must consider the consumer's ability to repay the home. So they're not just extending this to like those ninja loans from 2008, which is no income, no job. these crazy, crazy loans. So they're trying to paint a picture that this is not 2008 again. But now I'll let you paint the other side. And so how maybe these loans are found upon it. Your blonde hair does really represent the sunny side you take of things.

But there is a downside to this. And this is because without an upfront down payment, you are not building any equity in the home. So should you fall into financial disaster immediately? You know, something happens to you. Things happen that are bad. you have to sell the house and you have not built any equity in it. And then eventually you still owe that $15,000.

You owe more than the house is worth. And then all of a sudden, you're underwater. You owe money. So that's how this thing could go wrong as well. It also relies on home appreciation. It also relies on house values going up. And of course, that has happened for the past decade or so. And it's going up all too much for anybody's liking right now.

But that's not a guarantee. That's not a case. There is a possibility. there is a world out there, as we saw in 2006 or 2008, that home prices crash or fall. And in that scenario, this is also a bad decision. A final thing that makes this a little more tenuous than it might appear is that some people are doing something that they call marrying the house and dating the rate. Mortgage rates are at 7% right now.

They're very high. And a lot of people do foresee them dropping in the future so they can say, all right, I'll get this house now and hopefully the rates will go down in the future and I'll refinance then. but when you refinance these 0% loans, the entire loan comes due. So you have to pay that chunk of change back that you took out for 0% earlier. So if you're marrying the house, dating the rate, you might be hit with like this extra bill, this extra fee that you weren't really taking into consideration. So a lot of things here, a lot of pieces of the puzzle. These aren't right for everyone, but they are right for some.

I think it's just a sign of how frozen over the housing market is and mortgage companies and anybody in this industry, is just throwing everything at the wall and getting creative to try to kickstart momentum with rates at 7%. Up next, it's Tuesday, which means it's time for Toby's trends. Hey, honey, it's mom. Did you know if we switch to Verizon, we can get four phones for $0,000 plus four lines for $25 a line? Call me back.

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and slightly ugly all-in-one package, a package that I want to talk about on today's edition of Toby's trends, where I slunk into the caves of the internet to emerge with the trend you should keep an eye on. And today's trend is about the surprise resurgence of the A6th. shoe brand. A6 is a 75-year-old Japanese running shoe company that is perhaps best known for its

innovation of adding silicon cushioning gel to its shoes back in the 80s. It may be 75 years old, but its stock price has quadrupled in the past two years as it's ridden a wave of popularity in both running and fashion circles. First, it has capitalized on the pandemic running boom quite well. All your friends who joined run clubs recently have to buy their shoes somewhere, but has also seen success on the backs of its dad sneakers. which are shoes built more for practicality than performance or aesthetics. Some of its more classic silhouettes like the Jelkeano have become fashion symbols in certain circles as the quote-on-quote ugly shoe wave continues to rip.

Neal, A6 might be a little bit slept on when it comes to the broader running shoe market. Just like we talked about with Spotify, I think A6 is a great example of find your lane and just absolutely dominating it. Their lane is running and they are the kings, around a quarter of all of everyone who who ran the Paris Marathon were wearing A6. They've just dominated this category. And you said they have an interesting connection to Nike as well. Yeah.

For any of you who have read Shoe Dog, which is the origin story of Nike written by Phil Knight, the book talks about how Nike started. And it began by importing these shoes called Onusuka, which would go on to become A6. They actually, A6 still says Onisiku Tiger shoes to this day. They kind of look like the Nike Cortez, if you know that classic silhouette.

So it has a very deep connection. Without A6 and without Onisuku, there wouldn't be Nike either. So it is very much steeped in running tradition and running history. All right. Well, I'll pick two areas where I think A6 can expand based on my research here. One of them is trail running. So trail running is one of the fastest growing performance segments of any in the shoe category. And A6 is rolling out a ton of stuff, putting a ton of investment into trail running.

And for anyone does know, trail running. is running on a trail. I don't know how else spells to describe it. But that's also experiencing a huge surge in interest. And the other is tennis, which I didn't know AISICs was huge. But they're the number one brand for tennis in North America. Novak Djokovic sports A6. And, you know, I think they could really expand their market into tennis,

which is also growing in popularity. I don't know about pickleball. Yeah, pickleball, they need to be a little cooler to get into pickleball. But I do think that what they've done well, if we go to the fashion front, too, They've done the collab playbook, which New Balance has kind of pioneered here in the sense of we take these older silhouettes. The gelcana has been around for literally 40 years at this point, but they're collabing with younger designers. You put a fresh coat of paint on them. And I have seen them around.

They are not pretty to the eye if you are just looking at it from a purely like aesthetic standpoint, but that is the wave that we are in. You see the popular shoes like Crocs has a resurgence. you see, hokas are very popular right now. These big chunky shoes with very distinct silhouettes are what people like right now. And A6 is definitely keying into that market as well. All right, Toby, you've been doing Toby's trends for a year now, and you're very good at it. But it's only fair if sometimes I get to highlight a trend our audience would enjoy. So welcome to the first ever edition of Neal's narratives.

Yeah, we really scrape the bottom of Thesaurus.com for that one. And the narrative I want to share with you today is more of a sound, a loud thump echoing across a restaurant as you throw down your platinum card to collect points. Young people with money are flocking to American Express cards as the latest status symbol. Amex cards have always been associated with the wealthy jet-setting type, but young people are fueling its business now. More than three quarters of its new accounts for consumer gold or platinum cards last year were Gen Z or millennials, the company said.

and the use have sent Amex shares soaring. They're up over 25% this year, and since 2020, they've beaten the SMP's annualized return by nearly four percentage points. Toby, this is kind of wild, considering the platinum card costs $700 a year, and the gold card costs $250 a year. Gen Z is not dipping a toe in with those free introductory cards. They're going straight to the premium plastic. Does their love affair with Amex surprise you?

They want that clang. I think you nailed it. I do think part of the reason why we are seeing them go for these higher fee cards immediately is that Gen Z just entered the workforce at a more favorable time. If we go, TransUnion did this study that found that 84% of Gen Z consumers in a study had at least one credit card at the end of 2023 when their age between 22 and 24. That is significantly higher than millennials at the same age, which only 61% had a credit card a decade ago.

If you go back a decade ago, clearly we were in. in a more economically unstable time. So I do think people are just feeling a little bit better about their finances, which is why we're seeing such a much higher credit card ownership rate. I also do think that young people are a lot more fee immune these days and that they're a lot more savvy when it comes to subscriptions. We live in a subscription world. I mean, we talked about Spotify, we talked about Netflix.

Tons of people have these annual fees. And it's very easy to do the math on Amex, like if I spend X amount, I will recoup my fees. And I think people are just a lot more savvy when it comes to credit card fees these days. So those are two things that I think support this trend of younger people loving Amex. And Amex has been doing a good job

of expanding their rewards offerings to give you money back for when you buy these really expensive cards. It used to be associated with just travel and you can still get into the Centurion Lounge and other places in various airports. But they've expanded those offerings to include things like, I mean, the gold card gives you 4% on groceries.

So I was definitely looking. into that during COVID when the only thing I was doing was going to the grocery store and buying stuff from there, they offer cashback on things like Uber rides, credits for hotels, things like streaming credits, and they also give you these exclusive offerings like dinner reservations. They bought Rezzi in 2019. And then I just got an email being like, Amex card holders can buy U.S. Open tickets a week ahead of time. Settle flex right there. No, I'm just saying this is like a, they're offering these.

these premium offerings that go beyond travel that makes you feel like you're in a pretty exclusive club. And I think that appeals to young people as well, especially when we talk about restaurant reservations, they're impossible to get. So if Amex can help you in that regard, then I can see why it's attractive. For our last story of the day, let's talk about this article, the Wall Street Journal just published titled Retailers Hate That You Buy Big Things on Your Laptop. Why are retailers be heaved? Well, shopping on your phone has been hailed as the future of e-commerce for years now. your favorite clothing stores, airlines, hotels, they've all poured millions of dollars into optimizing their websites on mobile to catch our attention and boost their sales. And yes, this past holiday season,

it worked. Sixty-one percent of revenue generated on Christmas Day came from mobile, according to data from Adobe. But data hides the fact that consumers don't really like shopping on our phones that much. There's something nice about busting out the big screen, aka your laptop for some purchases. maybe you have some money-saving browser extensions installed, or you want to flip between tabs while booking a trip. Whatever the reasons, you're not alone when you bust out the big screen to be more deliberate about some purchases. Neil, what do you think about retailers' preference for mobile,

but consumers' preference for laptop? Well, it's very interesting because I did not think about this, but I think we all do this, where you're looking at something expensive on your phone, and you're like, okay, wait, I'll actually just wait until I get home, have my big screen in front of me, can be a little more purposeful about the purchase. I guess we just all do that subconsciously,

but I never thought about it. So this article is very interesting in kind of highlighting that consumer psychology that I had never thought about, but I absolutely do. But it seems like companies are doing a better job at getting you to buy more expensive things on your phone or at least feel more comfortable.

On it, United Airlines, the app saw a 23% increase in people shopping for flights there on its mobile app in 2020. And then on Airbnb, 54% of total nightsbook last quarter, we're done on the app, which is up from 49% a year ago. So people are paying hundreds of dollars for things that require a lot of checks to make sure that you have the right date. You have the right information on their phone rather than their desktop. And so maybe we're moving in a direction where you are comfortable buying super pricey things on your phone. But I can imagine, I don't think I've ever bought a flight or anything of any expense.

on my phone. It feels wrong. There are just some things like you can dive into the data, you can dive into these big app redesigns, but you're right. I'm never going to buy a flight on the United app. I'm so sorry, United. It does feel like a big screen activity. You just want to make sure everything's right and you want to flip through those tabs. So yeah, there is definitely psychology around the big screen versus small screen. But companies do want to understand consumer behavior here because people browse on their phones way more often than they do on the desktop, but they don't fulfill their orders on phones. They move to their desktop.

And if companies can ratchet up the rates of getting people buying on their phones, then they'll be making a lot more money. But yeah, I don't think I'll ever be there. Except when you go on Venmo, you Venmo a lot of, you know, Venmo hundreds of dollars to put people in places. That's different. That's a small screen activity. There's big screen activities and small screen activities,

and you've got to determine which one is which. Let's wrap it up there. Thanks so much for listening. Have a wonderful Tuesday for any thoughts, questions, concerns. feedback on the show, send us an email at MorningBrewdaily at MorningBrew.com. That's a lot of ads. Let's roll the credits. Emily Milliron is our executive producer.

Raymond Loo is our producer. Olivia Graham is our associate producer. Eugenio is our technical director. Billy Menino is on audio. Hair and makeup is fed up with all our alliterative segment names. Devin Emery is our chief content officer and our show is the production of Morning Brew. Great. Saturday, Neil.

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