Morning Brew Daily - Spirit Airlines on its Deathbed? & July Inflation Remains Sticky

Episode Date: August 13, 2025

Episode 647: Neal and Toby recap July’s inflation report that shows CPI ticked up from June. Then, Elon Musk accuses Apple of preferential treatment of OpenAI in its App Store vs. other AI companies…mainly Grok. Also, Spirit Airlines and Kodak are knocking on death’s door as it struggles to stay in business. Meanwhile, Cracker Barrel is trying to revamp its restaurants to appeal to younger customers and not everyone is happy about it.  00:00 - The Sphere of Oz 3:30 - Sticky inflation 8:30 - Elon v. Apple & OpenAI 12:45 - Spirit’s demise 14:50 - Kodak’s dire straits 17:40 - Cracker Barrel conundrum 21:30 - Sprint Finish! LinkedIn will even give you a $100 credit on your next campaign so you can try it yourself. Check out LinkedIn.com/mbd for more. Submit your MBD Password Answer here: https://docs.google.com/forms/d/1Yzrl1BJY2FAFwXBYtb0CEp8XQB2Y6mLdHkbq9Kb2Sz8/viewform?edit_requested=true  Sign up for MBD trivia night here: https://mbd-trivianight-august19.splashthat.com/  Subscribe to Morning Brew Daily for more of the news you need to start your day. Share the show with a friend, and leave us a review on your favorite podcast app. Listen to Morning Brew Daily Here:⁠ ⁠⁠https://www.swap.fm/l/mbd-note⁠⁠⁠  Watch Morning Brew Daily Here:⁠ ⁠⁠https://www.youtube.com/@MorningBrewDailyShow⁠ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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Good morning brew daily show. I'm Neil Fryman. And I'm Toby Howell. Today, inflation was more mild than underseasoned potatoes, teeing up a Fed rate cut next month. Then Elon Musk claims that Apple and Open AI are in cahoots, suppressing his AI chatbot in the app store. It's Wednesday, August 13th. Let's ride. You've heard on this podcast that Las Vegas is in a major tourism slump this summer,

but it might be able to turn things around with some help from tigers and lions and bears. Oh my. Sphere, the futuristic, sphere-shaped venue just off the strip, announced this week that it had sold 127,000 tickets to its showing of the Wizard of Oz, which debuts on August 28th. The Sphere and a team of engineers used AI to widen the 1939 film's frames to fit the ginormous screen, with a goal of making you feel like you were in the studio when the movie was being made. James Dolan, CEO of Sphere and owner of the Nix,

says he thinks the Wizard of Oz will boost the share of people traveling to Las Vegas just for the sphere to 10% from 7% currently, as long as people don't balk at the price, which starts at over $100 for a single showing, he might be right. He might be right, but I have also seen a lot of backlash from film buffs online

because obviously when you change the scope of a shot, you're changing the feel of a movie. So Slate wrote an article that was titled The Much Hiped New Wizard of Oz is an atrocity. Other reporters who got a sneak peek called it gross and disrespectful and an affront to art in nature. Personally, I think it's going to be cool. It has 4D elements, so you'll see fire.

You'll get tornado like gusts of wind. Flying monkeys will actually come out filled with heliums piloted by drones and kind of swoop down over the audience. So, again, not something the film elites are going to like, but maybe the masses, including myself, will. Now a word from our sponsor, LinkedIn ads. Okay, Toby, I need to tell you a very funny ad I saw that was totally useless to me. Oh, goodness. What now? It was an ad for a different news podcast, as if I'm not keeping tabs on the competition already.

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LinkedIn will even give you a $100 credit on your next campaign so you can try it yourself. Just go to LinkedIn.com slash MBD. That's LinkedIn.com slash MBD. Terms and conditions apply only on LinkedIn ads. Study and play. Come together on a Windows 11 PC. And for a limited time, college students get the best of both worlds. Get the unreal college deal, everything you need to study and play with select Windows 11 PCs.

eligible students get a year of Microsoft 365 premium and a year of Xbox GamePass Ultimate with a custom color Xbox wireless controller. Learn more at Windows.com slash student offer. While supplies last ends June 30th, terms at AKA.m.m.m.S.C. September is right around the corner and there is a lot to look forward to. The humidity is going to be down. Football and PSLs are back. And in all probability, the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates. A rate cut was effectively locked in yesterday after John. July's inflation report arrived mostly in line with expectations. The consumer price index showed

that U.S. prices rose 2.7% annually, the same inflation rate as in June, and a hair below expectations of a 2.8% increase. Core CPI, the closely watched measure that strips out food and energy, rose 3.1% year over year. That's a tad above projections of 3%, but nothing alarming. Economists have warned that President Trump's tariffs would force businesses to pass on their added cost to consumers driving inflation higher. But so far this summer, we've seen a mild, if any, impact on prices for goods vulnerable to tariffs. Furniture and betting rose 0.9 percent, but apparel was up just 0.1 percent on the month, the smallest increase since May. Tires were up 1 percent, but appliances prices fell 0.9 percent, and new vehicle prices were flat. So if you were looking

for a meaningful uptick in prices due to tariffs, you're reading the wrong inflation report. yesterday's presented no clear evidence of tariff-fueled inflation. And that's great news for the Fed, which has kept interest rates steady this summer over concerns that tariffs plus a rate cut would equal another inflation surge. With price increases subdued, for now at least, investors are penciling a more than 90% chance the Fed cuts when the leaves start changing in September. Yeah, this was an interesting inflation report because we didn't see a ton of goods inflations, but we did see some rather hot services inflation. That is a little bit of a surprise because you would expect when tariffs enter the global economy that would increase the price

of goods. But is this good that we're seeing services run a little hotter? Who really knows? Because the Fed actually does place more emphasis on services. Remember that so-called core inflation metric that they do love looking out that strips out, food and energy. That places a larger value on services. So to see that running a little bit hotter, that's just another thing. thorn in their side. Again, September's rate cut meeting looks to be all but wrapped up. It looks like I just called it a rate cut meeting, even though it is not that. But it just complicates the timeline going forward, like what happens later on in the year if this services inflation remains sticky. Yeah, so services excluding energy jump 0.4%, which is the most since the start of the year.

Shelter was the main contributor to that rising 0.2% in July. That's essentially housing. Some other big jumps included airline fares were up 4% their biggest monthly increase in over three years. So hope you got your fall vacation plans already booked. And also better hope you don't have a cavity because dental services rose the most ever, a 2.6% increase. Hope you've been brushing Toby. I do have a cavity. That's what's so frustrating about this. Some goods that did run hot that you would expect tariffs to affect are those household furnishings and supplies. Those rose almost a percent. Footwear prices were also up, and then motor vehicle parts were up almost 1 percent as well driven by that cost of tires that you mentioned. But the auto market in general

is just in a little bit of an interesting place. Industry forecasters say that they've inflicted almost $12 billion of losses on global automakers. Right now, you're seeing them forecast their profits are going to fall by roughly a quarter during this calendar year. And yet you look at this report, and new vehicle prices were flat. So, They really haven't passed on any of those costs yet. We haven't seen that sticker shot yet. One way we have been seeing this manifest is that inflation data on used cars ran hot in July. Prices for used cars and trucks rose 4.8% from a year ago.

So a lot of people are maybe still balking at the higher prices of vehicles right now. Automakers are seeing that say we definitely can't raise prices right now or else we're totally going to lose them. And so people are buying used car and driving up those prices. The car market is a good microcosm or example of what's going on inside company strategy sessions right now. They are getting added costs from tariffs, $12 billion for global automakers, but they just are not passing on those costs to consumers because they are in competition with each other. And if Ford raises prices, then GMs are going to look a lot more attractive and so on and so on.

Overall, markets absolutely loved this inflation report and the prospect of the Fed cutting rates next month. The S&P 500 jumped 1.1% to hit a new record. Nasdaq was up 1.4%. And small caps, the Russell 2000, which is extra sensitive to interest rate cuts, was up 2.5%. So there is an indication where you can see investors are extremely bullish on the Fed cutting rates because the labor market is slowing down. And Jerome Powell was very concerned about inflation. This, besides that services hot reading, puts some of those concerns to rest. But as you mentioned, this is a long way from over. Maybe companies are not passing on those added tariff costs now, but economists virtually all agree that at least some point this year, we will start to see that good, those goods

inflation start taking higher. You won't believe it, but Elon Musk is beefing with open AI again. And this time Apple has been dragged into the fray. In a series of posts on Monday night, Elon railed that his AI company, XAI, was getting unfairly treated by Apple in its app store. Musk said that Apple was playing politics by not putting his company's Grock Chatbot on the App Store's list of recommended apps and plan to take immediate legal action against the alleged manipulation. Apple is behaving in a manner that makes it impossible for any AI company besides OpenAI to reach number one in the app store, which is an unequivocal antitrust violation, Musk wrote. Of course, many were quick to point out that China's DeepSeek AI app did manage to make it to the top of the app store back in January this year,

thereby disproving Musk claim that it's impossible. But Musk is never one to let facts get in the way of a good feud and has continued to pour on posts lashing out at Sam Altman and OpenAI, which he has previously targeted with a lawsuit over its change into a for-profit business. Musk has also bristled at the deep integration chat CBT has with Apple products thanks to an agreement struck between the two companies last year, which at the time prompted him to threaten to ban Apple devices at his companies going forward. So yeah, the Elon Open AI Sam Altman, anger, Thruple, now has an unwilling fourth member in Apple.

Sam Altman also doesn't back down from a fight. He clapped back to Elon Musk on X saying this is a remarkable claim and the claim being that Apple manipulates its app store to throttle GROC and XAI, given what I have heard alleged that Elon does to manipulate X to benefit himself and his own companies. And there he is referencing reports that show that Elon Musk change the algorithm at X to. to boost his own particular posts to the detriment of the rest of all the users. So you might have logged into X a few years ago and remember that all you saw was Elon Musk's post. And that's what Sam Altman is alleging there. As Altman and Musk were going at it in this X thread, someone thankfully just goes, Musk or Grock, who is correct? And then Grock replied, Grock is XAI's chatbot created by Elon Musk.

Grock said, based on verified evidence, Sam Altman is right. Musk's Apple antitrust claim is undermined by apps like deep seek and perplexity reaching number one in 2025. Conversely, Musk has a history of directing X algorithm changes to boost his posts and favors interest per 2023 reports and ongoing probes, hypocrisy noted. And then Elon Musk asked chat GPT say, hey, who's more trustworthy between Sam Altman and Elon Musk? And it said Elon Musk. So everyone was asking each other's chatbot to disprove what the each side was saying. And everyone was just screenshoting it all and going, like, this is tremendous content, even though, like, you have billionaires quarreling.

If we go back to the actual, you know, but of the argument here, which is why is XAI's apps not appearing in the now trending section or whatnot? Elon Musk a little bit has a point because when you go on to Apple's App Store, there's the free app charts, that is algorithmically set. Apple has no control over that. That just happens based off of the debt. downloads over the past week, but it does have editorial control. And so when you open it and you see Open AI, you know, recommended in every editorial section, you don't see Grok recommended anywhere.

That's where he's saying, look, they're conspiring against me here. Again, you are seeing other apps appear there. So it's not, and there's only so much space. So it could just be that it's not one of the five apps that are featured for that day. But that is what he's talking about. Not necessarily what's happening with the actual apps for itself, but what's happening with the editorial control Apple has over it. And it seems. like petty beef, but honestly, there's so much at stake because XAI and Open AI are extreme rivals right now. They just released their newest models, Open AI just released GPT5, and XAI just released GROC 4. And they are battling for AI supremacy. Elon Musk versus Sam Altman, yes,

they don't like each other personally, but also they have massive companies that are battling for domination of what could be the next industrial revolution. So, I mean, the drama is high. Trauma is high. If you had a nickel for every time a headline came out about how Spirit Air's business was in trouble, you'd have enough nickels to buy Spirit Air. The embattled air carrier warned it may not survive the year unless it can get its hands on more cash, an announcement that comes just five months after it emerged from bankruptcy. If it can't find a way to raise money, it may have to default on loans and start selling

off assets like planes and airport gates. Spirit's troubles are not new. Its core customer base of price-conscious leisure travelers has been staying home amidst increasing economic pressure, and it doesn't have the more lucrative international customers other airlines benefit from to make up the difference. It filed for Chapter 11 back in November, becoming the first major U.S. carrier to do so dating back to 2011. That followed a failed takeover by JetBlue, blocked for antitrust reasons, and a failed merger with Frontier Airlines blocked because the green and yellow playing color schemes would have totally clashed. And so here we are again, Neil, barring a significant improvement in Spirit's finances or a major cash infusion,

and may run afoul of the minimum liquidity requirements laid out in its post-bankruptcy credit agreements. So, yeah, we might finally lose that spirit in the sky. The airline industry has completely moved beyond Spirit's business model. May have worked for a decade or so, but now the way you make money as an airline is through premium travelers and honestly, credit card companies. In 2024, the largest airlines in the United States made a combined $14 billion operating profit. But virtually all of that came from credit card issuers

paying airlines for points. This is the Delta's United's Americans Southwest of the World. Spirit does not have any of these premium travelers or these lucrative credit card deals. So it does rely on shuttling people from Fort Lauderdale to LaGuardia. And people are just not doing that this summer with any sort of frequency. and therefore spirit is light spirit basically just has the transportation part of the airline

business which all of those other companies lose money on so that's where spirit is uh is has left itself and yeah may not survive the year and i want to highlight one other business that is just keeping its head above water and that is the iconic american company eastman kodak it warned in an SEC filing that there is substantial doubt about the company's ability to continue as a going concern so unlike your ex public traded companies are required to issue a warning when the end may be near and their financials are deteriorating. That warning came as Kodak reported a $26 million loss in its recent quarter, down from a $26 million profit during the same time last year. But for Kodak, the writing has been

on the wall for years now. You know the brand for its famous film and camera products, but it filed for bankruptcy in 2012 as digital photography made its business increasingly obsolete. Since then, it is bounce between new business ideas and meme stock status. In 2018, it made a foray into cryptocurrency. Then during COVID, it secured a government loan to produce generic pharmaceutical ingredients, setting off a massive share spike. It's existed at this weird sort of camera slash pharma hybrid company for the last few years. But now the 133-year-old business is teetering on the brink. Yeah, in the 1970s, Kodak basically had a monopoly on camera sales in the United States. It was responsible for 90% of film and 85% of camera cells in the United States,

according to the economists. But it got walloped by Japanese competition, and then the digital camera revolution wiped it out. And then it started focusing on printing and generic pharmaceutical manufacturing and even packaging. So it tried to pivot every which way, but it looks like the end of the road is near. You know what is a funny idiosyncratic fact from corporate history is that Kodak actually invented the first digital camera in 1975. So it created

the means of its own demise, which just has some poetic symmetry right there. All right, up next, we're going to talk

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The hottest topic on social media right behind Taylor Swift's new album is Cracker Barrel. Videos about the iconic chain have been popping off as people engage in feverish debate about the makeover it's giving its stores. Last August, Cracker Barrel announced a three-year transformation that includes renovating its stores to appeal to more customers, aka ones that are younger and wealthier. So far, 40 of Cracker Barrel's 660 locations have gotten the update, and it seems just about everyone has an opinion on the changes. An Instagram video from August 5th, 2024, over a year ago, in which a store manager walks through the redesign, is still receiving negative comments as of this week.

Other videos from customers showing the new locations have similarly gone viral. So what is Cracker Barrel doing to its stores? It's basically trying to make them feel a little less like Paul Bunyan's hunting lodge if he was also a hoarder. While the walls of existing stores are stuffed with antiques and old family, portraits. The remodeled locations have lighter paint, simpler decor, and a more open floor plan. Critics complain that the new Cracker Barrels resemble a soulless fried chicken and biscuit factory devoid of their traditional rustic atmosphere. More positive reviewers say they think it's a

nice balance of modernity and country charm. Toby, which side are you on? I'm on the side of this stinks because I grew up going to Cracker Barrel and I love playing Eye Spy looking at all the antiques on the walls. And I think that's the issue is people have emotional connection to this restaurant. It's meant to evoke your grandmother's kitchen. It's meant to evoke this southern hospitality. So when you strip that all away and you boost the lighting up and you make the walls a little bit more bare, people do respond emotionally to that. And interestingly enough, a lot of people are saying, where can I get the antiques that are being taken down from the walls? And a lot of it is being reused at other locations, but some of it's being sold off to a third

party. So if you can dive deeper into that, you may get your hand on, you know, like the plow that was on the wall in cracker barrels. I will say, though, some employees are liking it because some people that the Wall Street Journal talked to said, hey, it's a lot easier to read menus and the lighting. They've kind of made everything a brighter. The open floor plan is easier to navigate. So their true test comes on if sales are rising at the locations that they've renovated. And they do say that sales are increasing, at least at the four first test locations, that they are doing. So Cracker Barrel is quite happy with this. And yes, sales are the only things that mattered. The CEO is saying, like, this feedback is a good sign. It means customers,

quote, have an emotional connection with the brand. People's immediate reaction to things is like, oh, this isn't the way it was, but they tend to come around. And so Cracker Barrel execs and all of its PR team in the face of this backlash or this debate has come out and said, there's a vocal minority here who hate the redesign. And we understand that. This is very emotional thing for for whatever reason. It is just a restaurant. But at the same time, we are going to continue to plow ahead with this because it's better for our employees. We're increasingly reaching the customers that we want to reach. And the 65 and older crowd, we love you, but, you know, the world is moving on. One final kind of idiosyncrasy of Cracker Barrel's business is that they have the

restaurant, but they also have these little retail stores attached to it. Anyone who's been into one of those can you can find all sorts of Chotskis and whatnot. But that makes them more exposed to tariffs and other restaurants. Remember, restaurants are mostly sourcing their food from inside the United States, so tariffs aren't as big of a concern for them. But Cracker Barrel has these retail stores where they're sourcing, you know, candles, mugs, other stuff from China. That contributes 20% of Cracker Barrel's revenue. So it is somehow find itself amidst this trade war, even though that it is a restaurant chain. So just another headache that they are having to deal with, along with all this pushback to its redesign efforts.

All right, let's sprint to the finish with some final headlines. In a surprising move, the AI search startup Perplexity yesterday made an unsolicited offer to buy Google's Chrome browser. It's about as far-fetched as me trying to dunk a basketball. Perplexity is offering $34.5 billion for Chrome, but its own valuation sits at $18 billion. Perplexity said it has a bunch of investors waiting in the wings, including major VCs, who would help it afford the purchase. Seems like a play to kickstart discussions should Google be forced to divest from Chrome. Remember, last year, Google was found to have a monopoly in search, and the judge is about to decide specific remedies that would increase competition.

One of those remedies is requiring Google to hive off Chrome, though analysts generally doubt it will come to that. Toby, what is perplexity thinking? First of all, you could dunk a basketball if you put your mind to it, but second of all, a lot of people are interpreting this as more of a marketing play for perplexity, because, again, shoot your shot, but if your entire valuation is almost barely half of what you're trying to offer to buy this thing,

it's probably not a serious offer. I love you all, but you are not serious people. So it does say that they have the financing lined up, even though some reporters have talked to backers for big venture capital funds and said, we haven't really talked to them about this. So I do think they're just trying to put their name in the ring, they have an AI-powered browser themselves,

trying to raise the profile of that. So this ironically could actually work the opposite direction because perplexity has been floated as an acquisition target for Google and for Apple. So maybe by throwing their hat in the ring to say we're going to buy Chrome, they actually might raise their profile enough to get bought by a big tech firm themselves. So it could just completely 180 the other way. So I do think it's more marketing than any actual offer because of just the size of the price. They also did this before when they also offered to buy. by TikTok from Bite Dance, even though they don't have the money, and TikTok's probably worth way more than Chrome. So perplexity knows how to get in the headlines. Up next, Goldman Sachs CEO, David Solomon's

DJ career, has gotten unexpectedly caught in the crossfire of President Trump's trade war. First off, yes, David Solomon famously moonlights as a DJ, something that Trump reminded him of in a truth social post yesterday, saying that Solomon should either replace Goldman's economist or, quote, just focus on being a DJ. That barb comes days after the bank's chief economist warned that the American consumer would be on the hook to pay for more and more of the new tariffs, something Trump rejects. Tariffs have not caused inflation or any other problems for America other than massive amounts of cash in all caps pouring into our treasury coffers.

Trump continued in his post. As we discussed earlier in the show, it looks like the effects of tariffs are seeping through the economy at a slower rate, but the effects on Solomon's record spinning, much more profound. It's a little funny that Trump is going after DJ Diesel's career, which now is in the past, because that has been a point of contention, actually, between David Solomon and the board before. At the same time, other people think this is not funny at all for the president to go after a private company's economists and continue to push a political agenda onto what should be nonpartisan economic data. Finally, Helsinki pedestrians have gotten very good at

looking both ways before they cross the street because the Finnish Capitol just set a record for the least amount of traffic deaths in a single year. Zero. Between July of 2024 and July of 2025, not a single traffic death was recorded in the city of about 700,000. To put that into perspective, in Washington, D.C., a city of similar size, 52 people died in traffic last year. How do you drop traffic deaths to zero? The easiest thing to do is make people drive slower. The speed limit on the majority of streets is now roughly 19 miles per hour down from 30 miles an hour in the 1970s. They also fine unsafe drivers based off of income. So if you're raking in the millions that are also a speed demon, you could get hit with a monster ticket, which multi-millionaire

Anders Wyckhoff did back in 2023, paying around $140,000 for going nearly 20 miles an hour over the speed limit. So Neil, slower rolls and six-figure slaps on the wrist, it all combines to create very, very safe streets. It's an amazing accomplishment, and it shows that traffic deaths are not inevitable if you take certain steps to increase pedestrian safety and slow cars down. We've seen it here in the United States in Hoboken, New Jersey, just across the river. For seven years now, there's 60,000 people in Hoboken. They haven't reported a single automobile occupant bicyclist or pedestrian that has died in a traffic crash,

and that has been through deliberate planning and borrowing principles from what's known as Vision Zero, which is to eliminate all traffic-related deaths in cities. Pros of living in Hoboken, very, very safe for pedestrians, bicyclists, and autos. The cons of living in Hoboken is you're living in Hoboken. Hoboken's so nice. We go there all the time. I love Hoboken. I thought I were going to say great sports bars and a great indoor golf simulator, Hudson Golf, that we play up.

Okay, that is all the time we have. Thanks so much for starting your morning with us. Have a wonderful Wednesday. If you have any thoughts or feedback on today's show, Send a note to Morning Brew Daily at morningbrew.com. Tell me what is today's password clue. All right. First, I'm going to back up and give yesterday's clue,

which was the password's middle two letters form a U.S. state abbreviation. But today's clue is the passwords first and last letters together form a U.S. state abbreviation. One more time. The passwords first and last letters together form a U.S. state abbreviation. Good luck. Let's roll the credits. Emily Milliron is our executive producer. Raymond Lute is our producer.

Our associate producers. are Olivia Graham and Olivia Lake. Hair and makeup is not in Kansas anymore. Devin Emery is our president and our show is a production of Morning Brew. Great show today, Neil. Let's run it back tomorrow. Yamava Resort and Casino at San Manuel

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