Morning Brew Daily - Starbucks Competitor Opens First US Stores & The Dollar Keeps Sliding

Episode Date: July 1, 2025

Episode 616: Neal and Toby explain what the Chinese brand 'Luckin Coffee' opening in the US means for Starbucks. Next, why the US dollar value is falling. Then the WNBA announces another expansion with three new teams. Then, are men not reading novels anymore? And the headlines you need to know to start your day. Head to https://www.tacobell.com/morning-brew to learn more about Taco Bell’s new Refrescas! Subscribe to Morning Brew Daily for more of the news you need to start your day. Share the show with a friend, and leave us a review on your favorite podcast app. Listen to Morning Brew Daily Here: ⁠⁠https://www.swap.fm/l/mbd-note⁠⁠  Watch Morning Brew Daily Here: ⁠⁠https://www.youtube.com/@MorningBrewDailyShow 00:00 - Happy Bobby Bonilla Day 03:45 - Luckin Coffee Opens  09:00 - US Dollar Dwindles  13:20 - WNBA Expands  18:40 - Men Aren’t Reading Novels 22:50 - Headlines  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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Good morning brew daily show. Freyman and I'm Toby Howell today the coffee wars are heating up with luckin it coming for Starbucks on its home turf then first half of the year report cards are in and stocks got a gold star while the US dollar is in time out it's Tuesday July 1st let's ride good morning and happy Bobby Bonilla day to all who celebrate have no idea what I'm talking about here is the gist every July 1st retired all-star third baseman Bobby Bonilla receives a $1.2 million check from his former team, the New York Mets, even though he hasn't played in a

baseball game for over 20 years. And that's because back in 2000, the Mets owed Bonilla $5.9 million, but instead of taking that cash up front, Bonilla requested a contract that spreads out $30 million in guaranteed payments through annual installments from 2011 through 2035. And so July 1st has become an annual celebration of Bonilla's forward-looking financial planning and an opportunity to make fun of the Mets for having to pay a 62-year-old retired player for another 10 years. Our deferred income king, here is the funniest part about this whole deal. It worked out really well for the Mets. They used the money saved on the Bonilla deal to bring in a pitcher who had a great year,

then flipped him for a draft pick that used on David Wright, who by the time we retired was the Mets all-time leader in basically every offensive category. So yes, history actually shines brightly on the Bonilla deal, despite it being a very funny opportunity to make fun of the Mets, which thank you for taking advantage of. Now a word from our sponsor, Taco Bell. Excuse me, Neil. I need to refreshen up a bit. Refreshing? Yes, Taco Bell's new refreshas are refreshing, Neil.

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UN must be 21 to enter. The people of New York City don't exactly lack options when it comes to coffee, but a new chain has arrived from out of town, and it's hoping to shake up the morning brew pecking order in New York and across the U.S. Luckin Coffee of China opened its first two locations in the United States in Manhattan yesterday, and a high-stakes bet it can replicate its stunning success in its native country on Starbucks's home turf. Luckin was founded in 2017 and needed no luck finding its niche catering to young people with app-based

payments and cheap, wildly inventive drinks that blur the line between coffee and boba tea. By 2019, it overtook Starbucks in China by number of locations, and by 2023, it surpassed it in revenue. Luckin now has more than 22,000 locations in China opening a new one every 90 minutes last year and a few others in Singapore. But its road to the U.S. has been rocky. In 2020, after the company went public on the NASDAQ, it got caught up in an accounting scandal and admitted its earnings had been fabricated. Lunkin's chairman and CEO were both fired. It was delisted from the NASDAQ and hit with a $180 million fine by the SEC.

Many analysts thought it was dunzo for Luckin at the time, but it cleaned up its house, regrouped and is back to plotting worldwide domination. Toby, as they say, if you can make it here, you can make it anywhere. You think Luckin will find success in the crowded American coffee market. think that Starbucks has to watch its back. All you have to do is look at the company's approaches to their apps to see how these two coffee houses differ. Customation is the name of the game at Starbucks. You can supercharge your customization on the Starbucks app. You can add any number of toppings, syrup, foams, and now baristas are being forced to make these complex streams that

owners have just made up on the fly. That has led to these mosh pits during key communing hours. Then you look at Luckin. Luckin has no problem with digital ordering. In fact, you can only make orders via its app and they don't have these crazy lines or crazy moss pits that Starbucks has because the customization is a lot more basic. All you can do is simple things like optimized for the level of sweetness, but you can't add foams and syrups and whatnot galore. So it's a very interesting approach. Luckins is a lot more scaled down, a lot less custom focus compared to Starbucks, which is you can do all sorts of better. and whistles. But Luckin can afford to do that because it is so many different kinds of coffee that it offers. I mean, this company launched 119 different items in 2024 alone. The coffee market in China is so cutthroat. Luckin is not the only game in town. It's also going against another chain that's growing like a weed, Cody Coffee coffee, and they're releasing new products nearly one every two day. Things like mango base drinks or green grape base drinks. Starbucks is also getting in on the game in China with a salty and sweet pork-flavored latte.

So you have this wildly inventive market in China. We'll see whether the American tastes are more attuned to that. We're more used to just black coffee or espresso drinks or coffee with milk and sugar here in the United States. We'll see whether consumers will go for that mix of boba tea, fruity coffee that Luckin has been so successful with in China. Yeah, and Luckin doesn't necessarily expand it. menu, what it does is periodically introduce limited time menu items, which, you know, gets people out in droves because, again, they're catering to the same kind of social media obsessed youth that Starbucks is trying to capture as well. Yeah, last summer took advantage of

milk tea crazy. They sold more than 44 million cups of Jasmine Tea in the first month at the release this new limited time option. And then also we have to talk about value for money here in the U.S. the average order at Starbucks costs 51% more than it did, pre-pandemic at Luckin a latte cost just $2. So Starbucks is going to have to compete, not just on variety, but also on a price. So yeah, I do think that they have their work cut out from. And then you also mentioned that the placement of these two locations was very wise for Luckin, too. Yeah, they're going after tourists and they're going after Chinese college students.

So what they did for their first two locations is put them in those areas. one of the locations is in Greenwich Village right next to NYU. And we'll see how it works out for them. Cody, that rival that I talked about is already in the United States. It has a few locations in New York. It has a few locations in California. It will be very interesting to see these two very different strategies from Starbucks and Luckin work out because right now the new CEO of Starbucks, Brian Nickel, is doing the exact

opposite of what Luckin's value prop is. He's streamlining Starbucks's menu and very much enhance. the in-store experience. He wants people to linger into Starbucks. I went into a Starbucks the other day, and there was a lot more seating than had been in the past few years. It reminded me of the Starbucks of Old, which is exactly what Brian Nicol is trying to do.

It may just come down to price. As you mentioned, Starbucks is very expensive. They're leaning into premiumization, and Luckin is going. We'll see how much these coffees actually cost in the United States, but they're going for $2 to $3. Then again, Starbucks has a lot, big advantage. Obviously, it's been here for 50 years.

Lutken has two stores as of yesterday. We are nearly 50% through 2025, which means it's time for a halfway check-in on the markets. The starting five of stocks, bonds, cryptocurrencies, and My Sanity have all had varying levels of success and failure so far, but no one has put in a shift quite as putrid as the U.S. dollar. The good old greenback is off to its worst first half of the year since 1973, as Trump's economic agenda has global investors rethinking their exposure to the world's reserve currency. The potent mix of stop-start tariffs, a big, beautiful bill that would add $3.2 trillion in debt, and doubts about Fed independence have all sapped the currency's safe haven appeal

and caused the dollar index to fall more than 10 percent so far. Meanwhile, stocks are doing just fine after suffering their largest two-day loss in history post-liberation day. Expectations of future rate cuts cheered on by Trump. have powered U.S. stocks to record highs again in both of the last two trading days, but again, the weaker dollar means the S&P 500 still trails European stocks on a currency-adjusted basis. In fact, despite the S&P 500 inching up 5% so far this year, your portfolio could very well be down when adjusted for currency value. Cryptocurrencies, meanwhile, have fallen somewhere in the middle, with Bitcoin thriving under the crypto-friendly administration, but most of the

rest of the industry struggling more than $300 billion in market value has been wiped out from alt coins so far this year. So overall, Neil, six months into 2025, we have a sinking dollar whipsawing U.S. stocks, a suddenly resurgent Europe in a middling crypto market, and it's only July. This dollar sinking has been a dark cloud over what had been a remarkable recovery by stocks. In practical terms, what does a 10% weaker dollar mean for you? It is more expensive for you as an American now to travel abroad. It's less attractive for foreigners to invest in the United States because their currencies are stronger.

On the flip side, the weaker dollar should help U.S. exporters. If you make a good here, if you're a manufacturer here, it is now cheaper for you to sell it abroad and your exports become more attractive. It does make imports more expensive for us. So there are all these tradeoffs going on when the U.S. dollar gets weaker. I should mention the U.S. dollar is still very strong. It came from a position of huge strength to start the year, and it was expected to only increase because Trump's tariffs were expected to hurt other countries

more so than the United States as the year has progressed, as we've gone on for these past six months. That has not turned out to be true. U.S. economic growth is seen to have faltered more than all the countries were putting tariffs against, and that's why you're seeing one of the reasons that the dollar has had such a putrid start to the year. And then one more aspect of this dangerous game of devaluing the dollar is that the U.S. does depend on foreign investors to kind of buy its debt and fuel this monstrous debt pile that we've accumulated.

And a weaker dollar erodes the return on those bonds. So that is one aspect of this. If the dollar gets too weak, maybe there's less demand for these long-term treasuries that we've talked about, actually, and less foreign investors are piling into those specific vehicles. So that is one potential danger of the dollar getting too weak. Let's also just zoom out to the market as a whole this year. We've talked about it a lot, but let's just give you the high-level winners of losers. The best performing stock in SP 500 is Palantir. It's up 80% already this year as kind of ongoing geopolitical conflict has made this company even more central to shaping AI-driven

warfare. On the flip side, Decker's is actually the worst performing. stock so far this year's down nearly 50% as it just hasn't. What does Decker's make? Yeah, Decker's makes shoes. It makes brands like Hoka. And it just hasn't competed very well with Adidas and the like. And then also, yeah, crypto's been all right. The IPO pipeline is something that we have to shout out as well because a lot of people

going in thought maybe there'd be an IPO boom. It didn't look like it for a little bit. But now all of a sudden we have Corweave, Chime, and E. Toro in Circle who have all have these massive IPOs and done very well. So kind of a mixed bag overall, but definitely some spots of highlights. We'll give it a B or a B minus, I think. Okay, moving on, dear people of Philadelphia, are you, like me, fed up with rooting for a basketball team

that underachieves every year? Would you like to break out of a cycle of endless mediocrity? Do you want a fresh start? Well, it's on the way. Philadelphia, along with Cleveland and Detroit, are getting WMBA expansion teams in the next few years, the league announced yesterday as it tries to seize on its booming popularity by adding new franchises in new markets. Combined with the Golden State Valkyries, a new team that debuted this season

and two other expansion teams at Portland and Toronto on deck, the WMBA will grow to a league record 18 franchises to more than the previous peak of 16 teams in 2022. While Philadelphia will be getting its first WMBA franchise, Detroit and Cleveland have been here before. The Cleveland Rockers hooped it up from 1997 to 2003, but folded after ranking 10 out of 14 in attendance and never turning a profit in seven seasons. The Detroit Shock played in the WMBA from 1998 to 2009, won three championships and set records for attendance, but moved to Tulsa in 2010. One side of how far the WMBA has come from then, the expansion fee. The new team owners paid the league a reported $250 million fee roughly five times with the Golden State

Valkyries paid just two years ago. Toby, with Caitlin Clark in Indiana and new teams coming to Cleveland and Detroit, is the WMBA single-handedly revitalizing the Rust Belt. Yeah, absolutely is. And I will say, it's coming out a great time for the league. I mean, it just came off record viewership, record intendance, record merchandise sale, everywhere you look, things are on the come-up. And that expansion fee is crazy because, I mean, you mentioned just a few years ago what the Golden State Valkyries paid. But Mark Davis bought the Las Vegas Aces for $2 million in 2021. That team is now worth nearly $300 million. And then the New York Liberty was bought from James Dolan for $10 million in 2019. Now the New York Liberty are worth $420 million. So insane

valuations that we're seeing here. And a lot of league sources are saying when you factor in all the equipment and expansion or facility fees, the real fee is closer to $300,000. million dollars. So clearly the demand is there. Clearly the valuations are spiking enough to justify those franchise fees. So things are on the up and up for the W. Yeah, valuations have absolutely exploded. And that's due to viewership increases. Viewership of WMBA games on ESPN networks were up 170% last season to an average of 1.2 million. And that has led to surging valuations. The current 13 franchises that make up the league, they jumped in value by an average of 180% over the last year. The teams are collectively worth $3.5 billion worth now. And each franchise

is worth, on average, $269 million. Compared to 2024, each franchise was worth $96 million. This league has a lot of momentum. I have spoken her name. Caitlin Clark is a big reason why it wants to continue reloading with talent. And we'll see what happens when it brings these teams to Detroit, Cleveland, and Philadelphia. I know Philadelphia for one is absolutely, desperate for a basketball team, it can root for and be proud. I'm so happy for you because you have suffered so much as a 76ers fan over the last few years. So hopefully, you know, this 76ers equivalent will be better in the WMBA. Up next, we got Toby's Trends.

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then you might be a rare unicorn in today's literary landscape, a unicorn that we are going to try and pin down on today's edition of Toby's trends. A lot of ink has been spilled asking the question, are men reading enough fiction? The New York Times just published a piece titled, Why did the novel reading man disappear? But did he actually disappear at all? Granted, the book industry skews female

with a 2023 study from Lee and Lowe, finding that 71% of publishing's workforce are women. There is also the infamous stat cited in many an op-ed and industry report that men account for only 20% of the fiction market compared to 80% for women. But it turns out that stat is basically made up, according to Vox. And the gap is not nearly as yawning as you might think.

The closest thing they could find was a 2017 study from the UK that found UK women bought 63% of fiction while men bought 37%. It's hardly the Grand Canyon in terms of readership. And while celebrity book club culture and book talk are mostly geared towards women, men have their fair share of literary role models, making books for them. In fact, men won the National Book Award for fiction in four of the last five years. So the reality is women probably do read a little more than men and probably read more fiction due to how the industry is set up. But Neil, this is one of my murkier trends, the great case of the mysterious novel reading men, and I can't wait to talk to a novel reading man about it.

I mean, I do read fiction. I almost exclusively read fiction, but at least anecdotally, when I read these headlines saying men read fiction a lot less than women do, that certainly speaks to my experience, just talking among my friend group and whether, that's bad or good or something to be alarmed about is a question we can explore maybe in another Toby trend, but certainly my experience that men do read less fiction. The architecture of book discovery right now is certainly set up for women. There's a lot more women at the highest levels of publishing. Perhaps there is a supply shortage of stories that are told that speak to the male experience. And some would say, hey, this is a long time coming. Thank goodness that the power structures have been inverted because for the 20th century there was you know this this world was

dominated by male literary figures Philip Roth Jonathan Franzon you know Kurt Vonnegut you could go down the line everyone every guy had infinite chest on his on his bookshelf and the fact that women are getting their chance to shine here and are dominating this in this industry is perhaps welcome so I would say the numbers back it up I know you're saying it's not 80 20 as popular cited but 63 37 is a big gap. Yeah, but one thing that we do have to say, too, is that American adults in general just don't read that many books. According to Pew Research from 2011 to 2021, the average American

read 14 books per year, and you're probably thinking 14 books a year. That is a lot of books, but those numbers are skewed by the power readers. I mean, we all have the friends who have just bookshelves on bookshelf work of books. If you go to the media number, that is the number drops to just five. So you see how on average, five is still a little bit higher than I was expecting, the book industry as a whole are saying that we're not actually competing with other publishers at this point. We're competing with screen time. We're competing with Netflix. There are so many things pulling your attention away from reading right now. So in general, are men reading less, probably, but a lot of people and a lot of adults in general are reading less. So maybe that's the real story here is the great case of the mysterious novel reading people that are just are falling to the wayside.

All right. For all the dudes who are listening to this who are here, you know, the stats that, they're not reading as much fiction as women and want to start on their novel reading journey. Let's give them some recommendations, Toby. What is a good novel you've read? I mean, I just read Project Hail Mary, which they're coming out with a movie too, which I probably shouldn't say because we're gassing up books right now. But one of my favorite reading experiences, it's science fiction, but still fiction, a great time. Neal, I know you have one as well. Yeah, whenever guys come to me and they're like, I want to start reading fiction, I always tell them one book, which is Pillars of the Earth by Ken Fall. You will never look at a 12th century

Cathedral the same way. And I have a bunch of other recommendations if you just hit me up. I'll help you. All right, let's sprint to the finish with some final headlines. Microsoft thinks it can out-doctor your doctor. It announced yesterday that it built an AI medical tool that claims it's four times more successful than human MDs when it comes to diagnosing complex ailments. Called the Microsoft AI Diagnostic Orchestrator, it works as a symphony of five AI agents all acting as separate, quote, doctors. Together, they team up to come up with hypotheses, debate, and run tests to eventually choose the best course of action. As a test, this AI doctor, Hive Brain was fed 304 complex medical studies from a peer-reviewed journal.

It correctly solved 85% of them compared to just 20% for human doctors. Neil, we'll have to see how its handwriting is, but for now, researchers are calling the AI orchestrator a landmark step towards medical superintelligence that could help ease staffing shortages, cost and upend traditional diagnostics. I mean, holy cow, this is crazy, and it speaks to the AI talent wars that we've been talking about over the last few weeks with Zuckerberg going after these, you know, very important AI researchers because the guy who did this, Mustafa Suleiman, was the co-founder of DeepMind, which Google bought, and then he left DeepMind and is now at Microsoft, and he is, you know,

sort of spearheading these initiatives for Microsoft. One part of this, which I think is maybe under and under discussed, is the cost because when you're trying to figure out a very tough diagnosis, you often have to run so many tests. And that can add up to hundreds of thousands of dollars in some cases by sicking the AI on this. It might take a lot fewer studies because it was programmed to be more cost conscious than human doctors. really cool initiative, very excited to see where this goes. Among the stocks hitting record highs yesterday was Robin Hood, which soared 13% after announcing its biggest push yet into crypto with a slew of new products. The highlight was its release of tokenized securities for private

companies like OpenAI or SpaceX, which means that European users, sorry Americans, can trade tokens in fast-growing companies that aren't on the public markets yet. tokenized securities, which are blockchain-traded assets whose value mirrors their underlying equity, give their owners similar benefits of owning a stock, including things like dividends, and could offer more transparency because their trade clears instantly. But to reiterate, this is only available to European users because of America's tighter restrictions on trading, and it will likely remain that way for the time being. You don't hear that a lot.

The U.S. has tougher regulations than Europe. Still, investors clearly saw Robin Hood's product launch as a sign it was on its way to becoming an all-inclusive financial services firm. Yeah, Robin Hood is on a heater right now, and you are totally right. Vlad Tenev, the CEO of Robin Hood, has this vision, and it wants to be the one-stop shop for your entire financial life. And to him, that means pushing much deeper into the crypto world and just basically expanding its market share on all levels of wherever you're investing or trading.

So fascinating to see the turnaround that Robin Hood's heads. I mean, during the pandemic, it had this big surge in usage. It went public. got a god evaluation lost a lot of that and now is very much back to record high so they've been executing at a very high level on that vision it looks like this is just one more step to total financial dominance all right your cruise to mexico is getting a little bit more expensive after the country imposed a new cruise tax starting today cruise passengers will be assessed a five fee when their ship stops at a Mexican port, and that will eventually rise to $21 per passenger.

It's part of the Mexican government's push to get more of the cut of the billions of dollars cruise operators are spending on creating private resorts in Mexico. For instance, Royal Caribbean is building a 200-acre resort in the Mexican seaside village of Mahahual, known as Perfect Day Mexico, that will feature the world's longest lazy river and largest swim-up bar. It's expected to be completed in 2027, welcome 15,000 people a day and add $125 million to profits. Yeah, Royal Caribbean actually did this first in 2019. They made this resort a destination in the Bahamas. And at first, the industry was very skeptical about this strategy.

Like, why are you building your own resort? These places already have tourist destinations. Just let your passengers off and go frolic. But it's been a big financial winner. And now a lot of companies are trying to do the same thing here. So yes, the Mexican government wants a little cut off the top, but I think this is going to be something that you're seeing more and more of from Cruise industry.

Netflix is slowly dipping its toe into the old-fashioned TV game as it aims to bolster its live entertainment options, but it's doing so with an atypical partner, NASA. With the streamer looking to add more live feeds to its current content offerings, it announced a deal to link up with the US Space Agency to offer some of its NASA Plus content this summer. Two things to unpack here. One, Netflix is looking to expand from its in-house exclusive sports-related

live events to offer more broader viewing options. And two, yes, NASA already has a streaming division called NASA Plus. Earlier this month, Netflix also signed another deal to stream France's TF1 live channels, which will bring a much wider variety of on-demand programming to French audiences than just rocket launches. So there's clearly a concentrated push here, Neil. Netflix is becoming more and more like regular TV. NASA wants to flood the zone with its content. It says actually that the National Aeronautics and Space Act of 1958 calls on NASA to share their story of space exploration with the broadest possible audience. So they've inked various distribution deals. They put free content up on their website.

My only question is, is space content good? I don't know either. I mean, rocket launches are incredible. Rocket launches are incredible, but SpaceX has launched 81 rockets so far this year. Do you think it's going to become more commonplace. It'll just be like watching a plane take off of a runway and it won't become such appointment viewing. I don't know. I'm sure they have other stuff because you're right. They already do have, you know, they're putting content out on YouTube. So maybe we just haven't watched what else NASA has offered. I'm sure they have more stuff than just rock launches, although rock launches probably are the coolest thing. I think they need to add more production pizzazz to what they're doing. Because if you watch a spacewalk, I mean, that camera footage, understandably, is very grainy. It's very

hard to see what's going on. So I think we need to send maybe James Cameron or Christopher Noah. He will. He will. He will go up there. But I think we just need some better camera angles like what they've been doing with sports. So we just have a better understanding of what's going on. I think when it comes to rocket launches, they will never get old because that is just one of the coolest things to watch. That is all the time we have. Thanks so much for starting your morning with us. Have a wonderful Tuesday. If you have thoughts on today's episode, send an email with questions, comments, or feedback to Morning Brew Daily at Morningbrew

dot com. Let's roll the credits. Emily Milliron is our executive producer. Raymond Lou is our producer. Our associate producers are Olivia Graham and Olivia Lake. Hair and makeup gave Toby a ginger shot and he's sounding a lot better. Devin Emery is our president and our show is a production of Morning Brew.

Great show, Danielle. Let's run it back tomorrow. Relax and let Ralph's delivery handle your grocery shopping this week. We start with only the freshest items. Then review your list. and carefully choose each one. Then we pack it all up and deliver it in as little as 30 minutes so you can feel confident it's what you ordered.

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