Morning Brew Daily - Tesla Scores Big Win in China & The New Era of Grocery Shopping

Episode Date: April 30, 2024

Episode 312: Neal and Toby discuss Elon Musk’s quick trip to China that gets him clearance for Tesla to use their driving systems in the country. Then, Paramount’s CEO Bob Bakish stepped down after weeks of speculation that his relationship with the majority owner had soured. Next, remote work has led some cities to becoming hubs where managers and leaders tend to live. Also, Saudi Arabia is trying to seduce fresh financiers to invest in their ‘city of the future’ Neom. Meanwhile, Toby looks at the trend of shopping at multiple grocery stores. Lastly, the MLB uniform drama has come to an end with Nike holding the bag of blame.  Correction: Robinhood's 1% account transfer promo ends 6/28, not 6/30 as stated in the episode. 00:00 - Intro 2:15 - Tesla’s future in China 6:30 - Paramount’s CEO shakeup  11:00 - Managerial cities 14:30 - Saudi Arabia’s futuristic city 18:00 - Grocery shopping trends 22:00 - MLB jersey controversy Get your Morning Brew Daily Merch HERE: https://shop.morningbrew.com/products/morning-brew-daily-sweatshirt?utm_medium=multimedia&utm_source=podcast&utm_campaign=mbd&utm_content=shownotes Listen to Morning Brew Daily Here: https://link.chtbl.com/MBD Watch Morning Brew Daily Here: https://www.youtube.com/@MorningBrewDailyShow Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Many employees can't afford a hefty medical bill that pops up out of the blue, but it happens. And employees who are financially stressed are, understandably, more likely to be distracted at work, costing their employers greatly in lost productivity. Luckily, AFLAQ plans help with out-of-pocket expenses not covered by health insurance and can be offered at no direct cost to businesses. Learn more at aflac.com slash morningbrewerdaily. That's aflac.com slash morning brewdaily. Good morning, Brew Daily show. I'm Neil Framman.

And I'm Toby Howell. Today, why it's not weird for your boss to live in a different city than you? Then there is some serious drama going down at Paramount right now, including an unhappy heiress and a messy CEO firing. It's Tuesday, April 30th. I'm back and let's ride. Toby's back, but he left his voice on the west coast of Florida. Toby, what happened down there?

Yeah, it was my sister's wedding. and I'm definitely a little raspy because I ran a field day before the wedding, which entails dividing pretty much the entire 150 purse guest list into four teams, having to compete in games like egg toss, relay races, broom balance, all these events. It's really fun, though, because people of all ages, we're talking grandparents to kids, come and compete. It's a great icebreaker. You get to meet people from different friend groups, different parts of the family.

And I definitely recommend doing it if you have a wedding coming up. But maybe you have a megaphone if you're leading it. Definitely have a megal. Especially if you host a podcast. That is literally what I have written down. Bring a megaphone, especially if your job is podcaster. But let's get through this show. Let's hear a word from our friends over at Robin Hood. Robin Hood is introducing an uncapped account transfer bonus of 1%. That means when you transfer your account and assets from another brokerage to Robin Hood,

they'll give you 1% sugar on top. Now I know what you're thinking. 1%. That isn't that much, but money is money, baby. Also, the bigger your account value, the bigger your bonus. You can transfer multiple accounts and get the bonus on all of them. And, FYI, you don't need to sell your assets to transfer them. I mean, I take 1% increase in other parts of my life. Running speed, vertical jump, IQ.

Two out of the three, you're doing great on those, Toby. Oh, thank you. Wait, two out of three. Oh, anyways, the 1% bonus is only for a limited time. So if you want the extra dough, transfer your portfolios by June 30th. Learn more about the Robin Hood app in the App Store or Google Play Store. Disclosures investing is risky. Terms apply to the 1% transfer bonus. Visit robin hood.com for more information. Robin Hood Financial LLC member SIPC is a registered broker dealer.

We've all been to meetings that should have been in email, but sometimes, sometimes meeting in real life can lead to magic. And Elon Musk offered a perfect example of that yesterday. The Tesla CEO flew to Beijing and less than 24 hours. later, left with one of the most important victories the automaker has had in months. Chinese officials gave tentative approval for Tesla to roll out its driver assistance software in the country, giving the struggling company a much-needed boost. To understand just how big a deal this is, all you need to do is look at Tesla's stock price. Shares surged 15% yesterday, good for their biggest one-day jump since February 2020.

And that's because autonomy, self-driving cars is what Elon has staked. Tesla's future on. But without access to the massive Chinese market, Tesla's second largest, it would mostly be a dead end. So investors were pumped about Elon's hands-on approach to getting this done. And after months and months of bad news for Tesla, the sun is finally peeking out from the clouds. It would be a major boost for Tesla. Let's just go back through those months and months of clouds for a second. Remember, Tesla's coming off its first year-over-year decline in quarterly revenue since 2020. It's slashed prices, but still sold fewer cars in the first quarter. Layoffs are coming must is cutting 10% in the company. And it's desperately trying to get some

momentum around these new models that it's trying to roll out. But you're right. A lot of the future does depend on FSD, full self-driving. And not only is it great that Tesla can now tap into this bigger market from a monetary perspective, there also is the data portion of this where there's a lot of drivers in Tesla, in China. And so if they're, can get the approval to export that data back to the US to help train their software, that's another big boost for them. Yeah. What's interesting about Tesla's relationship with China is China's not so friendly to foreign

automakers, Tesla. It's actually the only wholly owned foreign automaker that's allowed to operate in China. And it's because randomly, Elon just is buddy buddy with this guy high up in the Communist Party there. And that's who he met with and who gave him approval. When Tesla first entered the Chinese market a few years ago to build its Shanghai plan, it got a very, very sweet deal. A lot of subsidies, a lot of incentives, a lot of low-cost loans. And during the COVID lockdowns, it also got special treatment. So China has a very tight relationship with Tesla. This is also big for China, not just Tesla, because China's foreign direct investment has plummeted over concerns of government crackdown. And just a lot of foreign investors are wary of investing in China these days. So it's good for China to say, hey, look, Tesla's here. Elon's coming.

He's investing in our country. Hey, you should too. Even though that Tesla in China do have a relatively strong relationship, that how Tesla is doing is kind of dropping off a little bit because its market share has been fading. It's facing increased competition from domestic automakers like BYD. Just to put it in perspective, Tesla had a 10.5% market share in Q1 of last year. That has slid all the way to 6.7% in the fourth quarter of 2023. and sales slid 4% from a year ago.

And there are still restrictions on where Tesla cars can go in China, even though you said that they kind of rolled out the red carpet for them. They are banned from entering sensitive locations that are sensitive to the Chinese military, even some airports, train stations over these data security concerns. So we'll see if those restrictions are actually rolled back where it looks like they will be. So even though this is a good win, you never know. with the data security privacy laws that happened over in China. And then final point on this is that there's a little geopolitical fracas going on

because last week, Elon Musk was supposed to go to India. And then at the last second, snubbed India saying he was too busy with Tesla. But apparently he found time to go to China, which shows that India is just not that mature market. The Tesla needs China is need to have. India is nice to have. And that ticked off some prominent Indians that Elon would. not have time to go visit them, and he did have time to go visit China.

Cue the succession music because a good old-fashioned scuffle over the media empire at Paramount Global has broken out. Bob Backish was unceremoniously dumped from his position as CEO yesterday, where he'll be succeeded by a group of execs they are calling the office of the CEO. The move comes as the heir to the Paramount Family Fortune, Sherry Redstone, jockeys for a sale of the company, which includes CBS, MTV, Nickelodeon, and the Paramount Film Studio. the Red Soans have been in control of Paramount for four decades, and Sherry still controls the holding company called National Amusements that holds a 77% voting stake in Paramount. So what Sherry wants is usually what Sherry gets.

And what Sherry wants is a merger with Skydance, the media company run by Larry Ellison's son, David Ellison, that would pay her out around $2 billion in cash for her stake. But what Sherry wants isn't necessarily what the shareholders want. They think the deal with Skydance is a sweetheart deal for Redstone that, overvalues her stake and destroys value for common shareholders. Skydance's sense come back with a sweeter deal that would give Paramount stakeholders a larger stake in the combined company, but it's unclear if it's enough to entice a special committee of board members

to make the final decision. Neil, either way, we'll find out the fate of the newly CEO list company soon enough. This is an iconic American company, Paramount, CVS, Viacom, but it is a complete mess right now. For that, all you have to do is look at the earnings call yesterday that happened after they fired Bob Backish. So each of the three new executives they're calling the office of the CEO said maybe two to three minutes of remarks and then did not take any questions and then played the Mission Impossible music on repeat while analysts were like, can we find out what the heck is going on over there? Because you all don't really know what you're doing. Paramount has various divisions.

It has the movie studio. It has the cable channels. The cable channels are obviously plummeting right now as people cut the cord. It rolled out Paramount Plus, which is its streaming service, as every other media company has done to kind of pivot towards the future. This is the way TV is going, but it just has not operated at a profit. It is growing fine. It has maybe 71 million subscribers still a far cry from Netflix.

So it's just going through the same motions that a lot of dying or struggling media companies are doing, and there's really no vision forward. besides the sale. There have been exit opportunities that they've kind of ignored in the past. Netflix and Apple both showed interest in their Hollywood studio business. There were Showtime executives that wanted to spin off that and buy that channel. Comcast was intrigued at a potential partnership in streaming a few years ago. But one analyst painted the picture pretty well by saying the hope for any company in the space

is that Apple will come out and buy them, but that's not a strategy. And part of the reason why Paramount is kind of this ugly duckling right now is that they did try to combine so many parts of their business and they're like, if Redstone hadn't made the decision to combine the film studio with the cable business, with the streaming business, it would have been a more attractive acquisition target for a lot of these companies. But now it's just one big, ugly mess and no one really wants to go too close to it except for Skydance. Yeah, the only reason that Paramount did okay last quarter and they did, they had revenue growth of three to four percent, was because they had the Super Bowl. And that brings in a lion's share of advertising revenue.

Just to take a step back about Paramount and what it is and how it got here in the relationship with the Redstones. So the Redstones have this holding company National Amusement. They own CBS and Viacom. And in 2019, they said, okay, let's move these together. So then you got the company CBS Viacom. Few years later, that CBS Viacom company became Paramount Global. So that's where we're at now.

And now it seems that Paramount Global is going to be carved a bit. It probably should have earlier. And that led to a lot of the tensions between Sherry Redstone and Bob Backish. That was a good painting of the picture. And then also just to paint the picture of why Redstone maybe is looking to offload this. Company's market value is plummeted by about 80% on Redstone's watch over the past eight years. And Redstone's stake has fallen alongside that. The current value of her Paramount holding is around $750 million.

So remember that $2 billion number that this Skydance merger would reportedly pay her. That's why she wants to kind of railroad this sale through and why they're calling it a sweet-heart deal for $2.20 million. If she sold, like a few years ago, she would have netted at least $10 billion, and now that stake is worth $2 billion. So she wants to get out while there's still billions to be made. For many of you, your one-on-ones with your manager involves Zoom and the question, how's the weather over there? And that's because in our increasingly remote work world,

managers and their direct reports live in a different city. A fascinating new paper published by the ADP Research Institute found that people are now 36% more likely to work for managers in another metro area than they were before the pandemic. The split of managers and their worker bees has implications for intercompany dynamics, of course, throughout the history of capitalism, bosses and their reports have always been in pretty much the same room. But it also has dramatic impacts for the city hierarchy of the U.S., the paper argued, which is the emergence of a great divide.

Some cities like San Francisco and Boston are becoming leadership hub. That's where all the managers are clustered, and other cities, Las Vegas and Houston are becoming workforce nodes, a fancy term for saying where regular employees live. Toby, thoughts on the rise of the managerial city. If you look at the graph that the ADP kind of published here, there is a distinct inflection point. It is the pandemic, even though technology has kind of been facilitating this break between the manager class and their worker bees, as you described them.

obviously the pandemic really ramped it up. It finally kind of severed the connection fully. And so now you're right, like 36% more, 36% more likely to work for managers in another city. That is a massive, massive jump and a massive difference in just the way America is laid out how our workforces will lay down. And it largely tracks housing prices. It's very tied to housing prices. The cities that have the highest cost housing are, have seen their what's called leadership ratios,

the people who are managing others, people in another city have increased since the pandemic. The lower cost cities in the Sunbelt have seen their leadership ratios decrease. The takeaway for me from this report is COVID was supposed to be the great leveler for cities. In the early days when New York and Boston and San Francisco were hollowed out, the thought was that people are going to move to lower cost locations. And New York and these big cities, they're going to be laid low from this. but in fact it has only led to greater polarization and the superstar cities are only becoming richer, costlier, higher value, and while the other cities are sort of falling behind.

So to me, it was just this great rejiggering of the workforce that didn't expect to happen. So let's name some names. What are these management hubs? Some places you definitely expect, San Francisco and Boston have the highest leadership to normal worker ratio. Minneapolis and Philadelphia also do very well. Then you have the Las Vegas, the Houston, San Antonio's of the world. They are falling behind because they've been adding more workers, less management, more worker bees, fewer queens if you want to continue that ratio.

New York is kind of in the middle of the pack sandwich between Dallas and Kansas City just because there's just so many people who live in New York. So that's kind of some of the names that when we're talking about managerial cities versus worker cities that come to mind. Final lesson from this, though, is that you need to meet in person at a certain level to make huge decisions. Let's just go back to Elon Musk. He literally flew to China for 24 hours to get a deal done. And I think the fact that managers are clustering in certain cities shows that you need a face-to-face connection to make very high-level decisions.

Up next, a little update on Saudi Arabia's futuristic city in the desert. It's time to refresh your yard during spring backyard days at the Home Depot. Get low prices guaranteed on propane grills starting at $179, like the next grill three burner gas grill, or get $50 off to select Weber Spirit grill and bring big flavor to your backyard. Then set the scene with Hampton Bay string lights that bring it all together.

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Bring your AT&T or T mobile bill to a Verizon store today and we'll give you a better deal on the best network. A better deal. No surprises. That's Verizon. Best Network based on root metrics, best overall mobile network performance U.S. second half 2025. All rights reserved. It must provide a recent consumer mobile bill in the name of the person who gave me the deal. Additional terms, conditions, and restrictions apply. Rome wasn't built in a day, and neither, it seems, will Niam. Neum, if you might remember, is a proposed $1.5 trillion development on the Red Sea coast that would be the crown jewel of Saudi Arabia's big push to diversify its economy to tech,

clean energy, and tourism. The centerpiece is the line, a city that's longer than the distance between New York and Philly, and is all contained within mirrored structures that would be taller than the Empire State Building. How's that going? Well, depends on who you ask. Earlier this month, Bloomberg reported that the project was being scaled back dramatically in the medium term.

By 2030, only 1.5 of the lines' 105-mile span would be completed, a reduction of 98.6%. The Saudi government also reportedly slashed its original plan to have 1.5 million people living there to just 300,000. Yesterday, though, the economy minister Faisal al-Abrahim pushed back, saying everything was hunky dory. All projects are moving full steam ahead, he told CNBC. He went on, we set out to do something unprecedented and we're doing something unprecedented and we will deliver something that's unprecedented. Toby, first of all, thought we retired the word unprecedented in 2022. Second of all, what is going on at Neum? I think when you get a report like Bloomberg switch, you have insiders

revealing that everything is getting massively scaled back, but then you have the economic minister coming out and saying, no, no, no, full seam ahead. The reality is probably somewhere in the middle. And I think a lot of people thought that when the initial project idea was laid out, because 105 miles is just so, so long. One and a half trillion dollars is so, so much money. So it does seem like construction is happening. That much is definitely not up for debate because the project leaders recently had various international bankers out to show them the progress that's being made as they go and try to secure more funding. But even though we often think about Saudi Arabia's sovereign wealth fund that they call the public investment fund, is this unending source of money,

one and a half trillion dollars is one and a half trillion dollars. And you do need to kind of bring in some outside funding in order to support this very lofty vision they have. The finances of this project are definitely under scrutiny because the Saudi sovereign wealth fund has now depleted its cash pile to just $15 billion, which is its lowest on record. So the Saudi officials have been going around the world on this road show. they were most recently in China, but they were also in Europe and the U.S. raising money for this project. They have to say, hey, look, you know, we actually have some stuff going on.

Here's our plans. Here's our projections. So they've been on a world-wind fundraising tour to get more money for this because as much as it seems that Saudi has unlimited money, they don't. It is interesting, too, because they certainly do not, because the government has not provided a guarantee to these international bankers if they wanted to devote money to the project. that's one thing that's been a hang up in raising money. And then as part of this broader Vision 2030 plan, Saudi Arabia does want to bring in some overseas money. It's hoping to bring in

$100 billion of foreign direct investment annually by 2030. That is roughly three times bigger than any numbers that's achieved in the past. So they are definitely trying to modernize their economy, diversify their economy away from oil, and also bring in more of an international presence as well. Yeah, I mean, foreign investors were definitely eyeing Saudi Arabia a long time in the past decade. And then Jamal Khashoggi was this journalist, this dissoned journalist was killed. CIA said it was approved by Mohammed bin Salman, who's the crown prince there, the de facto leader. And investors pulled out their money. They're saying, oh, we're not going to touch Saudi Arabia with a 10-foot pole. Now, though, it seems like

they're all back. You can't ignore it. They're getting to all of the technologies that everyone wants to be a part of. They're stupid rich. And they're investing in a lot of AI stuff. And last week they hosted a conference that literally every major tech CEO, TikTok CEO, IBM CEO was all there. So Saudi Arabia is just a huge player in many different industries right now. I'm back, which means it's Toby's Trends time where I dive deep into consumer habits and emerge with a new trend you should keep your eye on. And for today's trend, I want you to think about your grocery shopping habits. Are you more of a gatherer where convenience is key?

Or are you more of a hunter willing to travel to specific stores for certain items or deals. The latter type of shopper is becoming a lot more common these days as grocery shopping turns into a treasure hunt with multiple stores involved. In the last year, consumers bought groceries from an average of 20.7 retailers up from 16.8 in the same period in 2019. Part of the drive behind this treasure hunt S shopping is that grocery prices are up 21% the last three years, which has helped drive these trends towards multi-stop shopping habits. If Target has milk and eggs that are $2 cheaper than your local Publix, but Publix has the Nokia you like, why not make two stops? As prices rise, loyalty to specific stores falls,

unless those stores can provide the best deals around. It's why most chains have been investing heavily in their own cheaper private label store brands to give consumers a deal while hopefully building back some loyalty. Neil, the fragmentation of grocery shopping. What do you make of it? It's pretty interesting. I was thinking if I buy groceries from 20 different spots and maybe over the course of a month. Yeah, because like you said, you know what in this era of high inflation where groceries are taking up the highest percentage of household budgets in 30 years. You have to be, I'm going to bring a word back for that we haven't used in a while, choiceful about what you're buying. So if you know the produce is good over,

you know, at one place, you're never going to buy produce at Trader Joe's because that's just a bad idea. But you know, the frozen stuff is good at Trader Joe's. You go there. So you're being more aware about what places have deals. People are using way more coupons than they used to, which was a crazy stat. Two-thirds of American shoppers used coupons for grocery stores last year. In 2021, it was just one-third. So that amount has surged as inflation as stocked grocery stores. Yeah, I mean, if it's your main expense, I can definitely see you taking these drastic steps to cut costs. This Wall Street Journal did this big profile on these multi-stop shoppers. They actually spoke to someone who's an international flight attendant.

He looks at his pantry before he goes abroad. He takes note of what he needs to stock up on. He said he's found Rose from Paris for $7 that Trader Joe's selling for 17. He's found $2 European disdurgent. Please send that my way because that is insane. And yet, just cheaper general essentials, pasta, olive oil and bread. So it is crazy. Just, I mean, obviously that's a very extreme example, but it does show you what people are doing right now to capitalize on these deals.

And the real winner of this and who's thriving in this new reality is the grocery store chain. Aldi. Foot traffic at all these stores was up 26% last month compared to the prior year. That's higher than 6% increase at Kroger Sharts. It's even higher than the 15% increase at Trader Joe's, which is kind of the gold standard for these discount budget retailers. So Aldi is just absolutely killing it with 90% private label bands. Yeah, they only have 3% of the market share in the United States compared to 30%

But for Walmart, but their prices are 6% less than Walmart because they strip every type of overhead from their stores as possible. They literally take the stuff that is on the crates from the truck and literally put it in the aisle for you to buy. So they're just doing the most, they're running the most streamlined grocery operation you can. They have much smaller stores than regular size grocery stores. They have fewer items. And so they're just being very targeted about where the American Consumption. consumer is going, and the American consumer just doesn't want to pay a lot for groceries. For our final story of the day, you remember the controversy the MLB had with its jerseys

to start the year? The jerseys designed by Nike and manufactured by Fanatics were the subject of much ridicule from fans and players alike. They felt like the lettering was too small. The fit had changed. Material quality was awful and the logos and patches looked amateurish. There was a lot of finger pointing with both Nike and Fanatics claiming the other was to blame for the debacle. Well, the MLB Players Association has weighed in, and in an unusual move, pointed the finger directly at Nike. In a memo they wrote yesterday, they said, this has been entirely a Nike issue.

At its core, what has happened here is that Nike was innovating something that didn't need to be innovated. Neil, I call this an unusual move because you really don't see a partner of a major professional sports league criticized like this, especially someone like Nike. Changes are coming, though, and Nike has pledged to return to larger letters. working on some of the colorway issues and make it so sweat stains are less apparent. Neil, big, bad Nike, not a great look for them. No, but they're not pledging to revoke the jerseys.

They're still going to keep these jerseys. They signed a $1 billion contract. They worked on these for many years. So they're pledging to make tweaks, but they're not saying we're going to revoke these jerseys from the market and go back to the way of old. So they're kind of digging in their heels a little bit. But yes, this is one of a number of sort of bad news for Nike. in the past year or so where there have been criticisms that it's not innovating, it's cutting 2%

of its workforce, it's doing this $2 billion cost cutting program. But it is kind of ironic that the one area where it tried to innovate, and it's been criticized for not innovating, that it failed miserably. The big winner here is Fanatics, by the way, because they have been kind of absolved for blame for their role in manufacturing the jerseys. It did always make sense that Fanatics probably wasn't to blame because they have been manufacturing the jerseys in the same facility in Pennsylvania that has been making MLB jerseys for more than a decade.

They acquired it back in 2017. So when that finger pointing started, Nike was kind of the favorite to be the reason why these jerseys did not perform well because Fanatics is like, listen, it's the same factory we've been using for a decade. So how could it be us? It has to be these new designs that Nike gave us. And yeah, it's just a really bad look. The pants were seethru.

This sweating was just awful. You still see it whenever a player plays outside, half their jersey is a completely different color. So, yeah, Nike was trying to innovate. They weren't really trying to cut costs, but they over-innovated themselves. All right. So how can Nike get its mojo back? There are a couple of ways.

One is the Olympics coming up in the summer. Nike has a huge presence there. They outfit a lot of teams with their jerseys, and they're going to debut. You can probably speak more to this, but they're new sneakers. and if you see somebody win the 100 meters or the marathon in Nike sneakers, maybe that'll lead you to go buy them because you're like, hey, I could do that too. So there's a huge opportunity here for Nike to get back on track with a big showing at the Olympics. And then also they are set to sign Caitlin Clark for an eight-year, $28 million shoe deal.

She's one of the biggest names in basketball right now. It beat out a bunch of other rivals for that. So they are making moves in some areas, but it really is an inflexible. point for this company. That is exactly how I think, you know, if I see someone win the 100 meter dash in the Olympics, I'm like, hey, I can probably do that too. How'd you know? All right, let's wrap it up there. Thanks so much for listening and have a wonderful Tuesday. Toby, you got through your flu game. I got through my food game. Thank you everyone for bearing with me. All right, maybe you've memorized our email address by now. But if not, it's Morningbrewdaily at Morningbrew.com, which you should

hit up with all thoughts, questions, praise, and concerns about the show. Let's roll the credits. Emily Milliron is our executive producer. Raymond Lute is our producer. Olivia Graham is our associate producer. Yuchinawa Ogu is our technical director. Billy Minino is on audio. Hair and makeup is always buzzing just like Niyam. Devin Emery is our chief content officer and our show is a production of Morning Brew. Great show today, Neil. Let's run it back tomorrow. Yamava Resort and Casino at San Manuel is California's number one entertainment destination for today's superstars. Catch the Jonas Brothers return to the Yamava Theater stage on April 30th. The powerful vocals of Demi Lovato on May 17th and the signature Southern Country Rock of Eric

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