Morning Brew Daily - The Auto Strike Is Over? & Boeing's Billion $$$ Air Force One Problem

Episode Date: October 26, 2023

Episode 178: Neal and Toby have the latest on talks between the United Auto Workers Union and Ford that would send employees back to work. Plus, why Boeing has lost billions on Air Force One and Meta's latest earnings. They also run through why AppleTV is raising its prices, SBF getting set to testify and Bud Light striking a deal with UFC. Neal shares his favorite numbers and the guys explain the lawsuit against Panera's caffeinated lemonade. And finally, the college football scandal rocking Michigan. Listen to Morning Brew Daily Here: https://link.chtbl.com/MBD Watch Morning Brew Daily Here: https://www.youtube.com/@MorningBrewDailyShow Listen to Our Future Podcast Here: https://link.chtbl.com/ourfuturepodcast Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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pwc.com slash US slash brew AI. That's pwc.com slash us slash brewAI. Good morning brew daily show. I'm Neil Fryman. And I'm Toby Howell. On today's pod, Boeing has $2 billion worth of regrets over a high profile assignment it took on. Then it looks like UAW president Sean Fane's maximum chaos strategy worked because we finally had some movement on the auto strike yesterday.

It's Thursday, October 26th. Let's ride. To begin the show, we want to keep you updated on a mass shooting that took place in Lewiston, Maine last night. At least 16 people were killed and dozens injured at a bar and a bowling alley in the state's second largest city. It is the deadliest mass shooting of 23 so far. Police have identified a person of interest, a 40-year-old male, and they've launched a massive search to find him. Meanwhile, residents were told to shelter in their homes in some schools and businesses in the area, including Bates College, are closed today.

Yeah, Maine is such a tight-knit community. I lived in Portland right after school. Emily, our producer, also lived and worked in the area. So we've seen that firsthand. So to all the mainers out there, just know our thoughts and love are with you. Before we jump into the news, we've got a quick word from our sponsor, Yahoo Finance. Neal, I can't believe it, but we only have a few more days of Yahoo Finance ads. I know. I'm going to kind of miss them. Which part are you going to miss? Well, probably talking about the in-depth analysis and real-time market data that I can access all in one place. See, I'm more of a trusted news and innovative tools, guys. myself. But whichever part of its unparalleled platform you're going to miss, head tofinance.

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Let's get into our top story. Neil, it finally happened after weeks and weeks of waiting, tense negotiations, and a litany of offers on both sides. We finally got hair and makeup to show up to work. Just kidding. The United Auto Workers and Ford reached a tentative agreement on a new four-year labor contract last night. It comes nearly six weeks after the union began walking out

at factories belonging to the big three automakers. The deal includes a roughly 25% pay increase over the length of the contract, including an immediate 11% bump upon ratification. And if you factor in cost of living rates as well, the union expects the wages for top earners to increase up to 33% over the course of the agreement. Union President Sean Fain obviously did a victory lap

yesterday saying, we made history. We told Ford to pony up, and they did. Fain still has to convince UAW leaders that the deal is indeed as good as he makes it out to be, and win a simple majority vote by Ford's union represented workers in order for the deal to be ratified. Now the question turns to who follows suit next. GM in Solantis still haven't come to an agreement, but the pressure is certainly on now. We had been talking earlier this week about what Sean Fain's off-ramp would be because

he talked a big game. initially wanted 40% pay bump over the four years of the contract. But this, I mean, they're getting 11% pay bump right away. And that was almost equal to all of the wage increases workers had gotten since 2007, according to the union. So he has to now sell this to UAW leaders and the rest of the unionized workforce for Ford. And it seems like he'll be able to do that. Yeah, these are very solid wages. I mean, the agreement eventually lifts top wage earners to more than $40 an hour, which if you factor it out 40 hours a week, that's a base pay of more than $83,000.

And that's not even including any of the overtime or the profit sharing bonuses, which came out to around $14,000, 2020. So again, these are, it was a substantial win and you can see why Sean Fane clearly, I mean, he's got a knack for it. I don't know. He's got a media savvy.

Like, he should host this podcast. Do you think the pony up was a Ford pun or not? Because you know Ford's logo? I wasn't sure about that. Probably. Yeah. So I think he's just kind of flexi. on them for sure right now, but no, he should not house this podcast.

No, we're good. But he was, the automakers on the other side, we're framing this in terms of if we have too many labor costs, like what the UAW wanted, that 40% increase, we have to compete with the Toyotas, the Hondas, the Mercedes of the world, which are global automakers that don't have a unionized workforce. We're spending billions and billions into EVs and trying to move the auto industry into a new era. And by paying so much in labor, then we're going to hamper our ability to do that. That was the pushback. But it looks like they settled on a middle ground.

I mean, not really a middle ground. Ford initially offered 9% raises, and now they're ponying up 25%. Yeah, exactly. Yeah, certainly didn't help the big three in terms of its competition with Toyota, Honda, and Tesla, who is not a union company. Yet. Yet. They're going to try to go to those companies next and say, look, look at what we secured for Ford and potentially GM and Stalantis.

Do you want that? Okay, well, unionized with us. Okay, moving on. We had more corporate earnings released yesterday, and Toby and I are going to bring you the biggest takeaways. Boeing's got a big problem that has four engines, anti-missile defense systems, and an all-white high-top strap with a gum bottom.

Yep, I'm talking about Air Force One. Back in 2018, Boeing and former President Trump agreed to a contract that would have the plane manufacturer undergo a complex retrofit of two, seven-forty-seven, Evans to become the new planes that ferry around the most powerful person on the planet. Five years later, and that project continues to be a massive money pit for Boeing. The company said it absorbed another $482 million in losses on the Air Force One program yesterday, bringing total losses for the two planes to over $2 billion.

CEO Dave Calhoun has previously complained about the deal, which was made by his predecessor, Dennis Mulemberg, and was a fixed contract that required Boeing to bear the burden for any cost overruns instead of the government. Last year, Calhoun threw Mullenburg under the bus, saying Air Force One presented a very unique set of risks that Boeing probably shouldn't have taken. Toby, sometimes a lucrative government contract isn't what it's cracked up to be. Yeah, this was just a horrible bit of negotiation from Boeing. They got so scared that Trump might pull the contract for them that they kind of agreed to terms that just were not beneficial. You cannot agree to a fixed contract, especially five years ago. It's a much different

inflationary environment, supplier costs are a lot different now. So that contract has just looked worse and worse and worse. It's like the Bobby Benita Mets contract. It's as bad as it gets in terms of the airline industry. And I mean, Boeing has been on the struggle bus for a long time now. It's reported losses in all but two quarters since early 2019. And then also total losses at the company now sit at $25.5 billion since the grounding of its 737 max jets, which had all those problems in March of 2019. So just the hits keep coming from Boeing, this iconic company, but it's not doing great.

Just a note for listeners. This is kind of a fun tidbit about Air Force One. It's not actually called Air Force One. This program is called the VC-25B. These are what the plane's called. And it only gets that Air Force One designation for when a president is actually on the plane, the Air Force-operated plane. So definitely don't call it Air Force One.

I mean, you can call it Air Force One. We've been calling it Air Force One for this entire for this entire segment. But if you want to be cool and look cool in front of your aviation geek buddies, you will call it VC-25B, and only Air Force one when the president is on it. Everyone has those aviation buddies they want to look to Lentad up. I am that. Yeah, you are that to me for sure. Okay. Let's talk about meta, which these days is getting as ripped as its CEO.

Facebook and Instagram's parent company reported its largest quarterly revenue gain since going public more than a decade ago, with sales jumping 23% compared to last year. The bottom line here is Zuck has managed to plug a leaking chip, and now the engines are on full blast. Remember, for most of last year, revenue shrank as the ad market dried up, and Zuck put all his chips on the metaverse. But after months of cost cutting, an emphatic rebound in the ad market, which accounts for more than 95% of the company's revenue, and of course, the hype around AI, meta is back on offense. Its stock has doubled so far in 2023 and is on track for its best year on record.

Yeah, there was a lot of good, big numbers. mentioned on this earnings call. Zuck estimated that there are now more than 3.9 billion people using at least one of its apps every month, which is just a mind-boggling number. He said that Reels actually has driven a 40% increase. Everyone kind of forgot about the Reels hype for a little bit, but he's saying it's driving a 40% increase in time spent on the Instagram app. And then also just kind of casually dropped this line as well.

Threads has 100 million monthly active users at this point, which was not a number that we expected to see. its daily active users' numbers are still a little lower than what you'd expect. This is its Twitter rival. Right. It's Twitter rival threads. And so 100 million is good as well. But there was one line mentioned by their CFO that kind of spooked investors a little bit.

As the earnings call was going on, the stock actually went up 5%. But then Susan Lee, the CFO of Meta, said, we are very subject to volatility in the macro landscape. And so that line alone just said, all right, maybe the ad market isn't quite as rock solid. as it's been on this kind of comeback trail, and that caused the stock to kind of reverse and finish down 3%. It's down. What they're talking about is the turmoil in the Middle East, the Israel-Hamas war, could potentially dent the ad market.

And that is because Snapchat said the same exact thing on its earnings call earlier this week that they saw a pullback in ad spending as soon as the war broke out. So with Facebook and meta, you know, so much relying on the ad market, any warning about geopolitical turmoil leading to decrease ad spend is could drag future earnings. Yeah, it complicates their earnings outlook for sure. All right, Neil, yesterday was a jam-packed day of news, so we're going to dig a little deeper into some of the headlines you may have come across. Up first, Apple TV Plus is raising the prices of a lot of its services by a not-so- insignificant

margin. Apple TV is going from $6.99 a month to $9.99 a month. Arcade is jumping from $4.99 to $6.99, while the Apple One bundle, which combines TV the Arcade and News is jumping from 1695 to 1995. Price hikes have been the theme of this year, and Apple joins a bunch of streaming services like Netflix, Hulu, Disney Plus, Paramount Plus, Discovery Plus, and Max in raising their prices. Remember, services has been Apple's golden goose over the past couple years or so,

driving most of the growth for the company whose iPhone and hardwheel sales have started to level off outside of China. So these new hikes is just Apple looking to squeeze even more juice from its profitable I think this is just a start. It was at $6.99 for Apple TV Plus, which many considered to have the best content of any streamers. Obviously, not as much content, but the quality of it was great, minus Ted Lassow. Oh, my gosh. That's a hot take. But consider that Apple TV, even with this latest price, like, it's still $9.99. Meanwhile, the standard tier for Netflix is $15.49, and max is $16. So I think there's a lot of room to run for Apple. The fact that you're only

paying $9.99. Now seems like a steal, even though that's where a lot of streamers had been in the past few years. But streamflation is real, and companies need to start making money from these streaming products. For real. I mean, just one note on that, Spotify raises prices and said they didn't see a meaningful amount of churn. So it's going to be interesting to see if Apple kind of is being the same drum there. They don't share their subscriber number. So we have no idea how many people are. Classic Apple. Classic Apple. Okay, moving on. Today should bring some fireworks at the criminal fraud trial of Sam Bakeman-Fried because the disgrace FDX founder is expected to take the witness stand to testify himself. Defendants typically don't testify because it can do more harm

than good, but SBF has never had an easy time keeping his mouth shut. And after brutally damaging testimony from three former colleagues so far this trial, that pinpointed SBF as the mastermind behind a criminal plot to steal customer funds, it's really the only strategy the defense has left. It's literally a Hail Mary. It'll also be the first time the public has been. heard from SBF in months. He's been under a gag order since July that's mostly prevented him from talking to the press. But finally, today, SBF may speak and the business world will be watching. I will be watching. There's just no way it goes though, because SBF actually does love talking to the press. Even when he was explicitly asked not to, he was still trying to talk to reporters.

And a copy of his opening remarks was potentially leaked. And his plan is technically to say he admit that he effed up while still trying to put much of the blame for FTC's failure elsewhere. So I just don't know if he can come across as someone. He loves coming across as the smartest person in the room. So I feel like it's going to be very hard for him to say, yes, these other people were making all the decisions. So I don't know. The fact that three former colleagues took deals with prosecutors and all to a T said that

he was behind this plot to steal however many $8 billion in customer funds. I just don't know how you dig yourself out of the hole. One analyst said this was just rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic. Love that metaphor. Finally, Bud Light is redoubling down on its efforts to win back its core male-dominated audience by going after the industry with the most testosterone per capita of any in the world. Business News Podcasting. J.K., they are targeting the UFC.

I got to stop using that joke. The beleaguered beer brand struck a deal yesterday to become the official sponsor of the Fighting League. As I mentioned above, the move is part of a broader effort to jumpstart Bud Light sales in the wake of a slump following a partnership with transgender influencer Dylan Mulvaney that knocked it off its perch as the number one beer in America. But the UFC partnership is doubly impactful on a symbolic level because Bud Light is taking over sponsorship duties from Modelo, the very beer that capitalized on its downfall to

sneak into that top selling beer in America's spot. Neil, good move from Bud Light here. The only thing I could think of is that if Budlite signed a deal with UFC last year, any year before that, no one would, and they did. They had a deal through 2017. This wouldn't have been news at all, but the fact that Bud Light has been in such turmoil over the past couple months and that it got leapfrogged by Medello, who it's taking over, all of those things contributed to, like a pretty newsworthy story. But I just didn't, I thought, you know, Bud Light partnering with a sports league, you know, you would be like, okay, that makes sense. But you said it was trying to go back to its roots of male dominated. I think this is more very similar to what it had been doing, what was trying to do with its sponsorship with Dylan Mulvaney, which is reach a younger diverse audience.

This is exactly what it needs to do because its core customers have been getting older. They are primarily male. And they're just trying to expand their reach to a younger demographic because, you know, the youths aren't drinking as much beer. And so this is part of a concerted marketing effort to diversify their customer base. And they have ads featuring Travis Kelsey, which they just lucked into the fact that he's dating our girl, Taylor. All right, Neil, before we jump into the rest of our show, we're going to take a quick break. All. Pay off your home, travel for life, drive a Ferrari.

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Get a quote or find an agent today at thehartford.com slash small business. We are back with Neal's numbers, the segment where I share three stats from the week's news that will be even more satisfying than Toby's $50 burger. Yeah, I looked it up. For my first number, I'll pose a hypothetical question. What does chat GPT know about God? Enough for many South Korean Protestant ministers, at least.

About 20% of the 650 Protestant ministers in Korea said they've used chat GPT to create sermons, and about 60% said that chat GPT was useful in inspiring ideas for sermons, according to the Ministry Data Institute. Generative AI has blown up in South Korea as a tool for pastors and worshippers alike to connect with religion and maybe save a little time sorting through the teachings of the Almighty. One of the leaders in the space is Meadow, a generative AI app that used to be named Ask Jesus until it realized some of its users took its answers as the Word of God. Meadow is based on chat, GBT, but also trained its chatbot on a huge database of religious texts. Korean churches are also on Bible, a platform that uses generative AI. to create audio Bibles from pastors' voices across 50 churches. There's been some pushback to all this tech invading religion,

with critics saying it ruins the human aspect of spirituality. But I don't know, if AI is making such inroads less than a year into chatGBT being released, we should probably expect AI to have profound impacts on religion. I just can't help but think when are we going to get our first religion devoted to AI? Because it seems like we're right on the knife edge right now. If you have this omnipotent, like omnipresent, technological thing, answering all your questions about life, how far is it until you associate that with the actual deity itself?

Well, maybe AI, maybe it's not AI. You're not worshipping AI, but AI creates the religion. That's, I mean, one of the same. This could be a big podcast episode right here. Yeah, and this is only, the discussion has only been heating up because Sam Altman, the CEO of Open AI, creator of Chatchibati, tweeted this week, I expect AI to be capable of superhuman persuasion well before it is superhuman at general intelligence, which may look, lead to some very strange outcomes, and some people took that to mean potentially that AI will

be fundamental to creating new religions. Oh, boy. That's all I got. Okay. Stat number two might be familiar to people plugged into video games, but completely fresh to those of us who don't know our way around a controller. Spider-Man 2, which was released last Friday for the PS5, has become the fastest selling video game made by PlayStation.

It sold more than 2.5 million copies in its first 24 hours. and with the standard edition costing $70, you do some back in the napkin math and get to $175 million in revenue in a single day. The game's huge launch has been dogged a little by a controversy over flags. The main character, Miles Morales, has been celebrated as one of the few mainstream Latino superheroes, but at least two scenes in the game, Sony mixed up the Puerto Rican flag with the Cuban flag, which share a similar design but have inverted colors. For example, in Morales's apartment, there is a Cuban flag hanging instead of the Puerto Rican. Rican flag that should be there. The game said it's working on a fix. Its apartment actually got a ton of

press more so even than the game itself because people, there's a scene where you can see what Aunt May is paying for her mortgage and it comes out to $4,419 per month. And Forest Hills, Queens. I know, exactly. So I do love that in this wide expanse of open world game, like the two things that people are focusing on are a single flag and then also the mortgage payment, which is just A classic. You should not mess up that flag. Okay, for the final stat, young people were surveyed by UCLA about their preferences for TV shows and movies, and the takeaway was that they wanted media to reflect their own lives

more accurately, specifically by having less sex. In the annual survey of 1,500 adolescents, almost 50% said sex was not needed for the plot of most TV shows and movies, and more than half wanted to see more content centered around friendships and platonic relationships rather than romantic ones. They're also dissatisfied with a trope of boy meets girl, boy and girl eventually fall in love, which has been the linchpin of Hollywood storytelling for over a century. And like I mentioned, it seems like they want art to imitate life. A 2021 CDC study found that 30% of teens had had sex at least once before,

down from 38% in 2019. It was the largest drop ever recorded by the survey, but you would not know that by watching Euphoria. The authors of the UCLA study also argued that the isolation brought on by COVID and a lowliness epidemic contributed to youth desire for more wholesome friendships on screen and may surprise you to learn that young people are twice as likely to report feeling lonely than people over 65. Toby, you're a young person. Not to put you on the spot.

Do you want less or more steamingness on TV? I mean, you just want genuine human connection. I think that Hollywood kind of ran away with the idea that sex equals connection. And it can be portrayed in a lot of different ways, actually. so as our resident young person, I'm all for this trend. Yeah, like, give me some, give me some actual friendships rather than just boy and girl, boy and girl go to a room and do whatever. This is a G-rated podcast, so we won't get into that. All right, Neil, let's move on. This next story, legit made my draw drop on so many levels. Panera, specifically

its lemonade, is the target of a lawsuit from the parents of a college student with an underlying heart condition who passed away after drinking it. But what's dangerous about lemonade? Well, Panera sells something called charge lemonade, and according to the lawsuit, it has more caffeine than Red Bull and Monster Energy combined. The chain advertises the drink as plant-based and clean with as much caffeine as our dark roast coffee, but according to the suit, a 30-ounce serving of charged lemonade contains more than 390 milligrams of caffeine. Just to put that in perspective, Celsius has 200 milligrams. Starbucks, Starbucks Triple Shot Energy Coffee, has 225 milligrams, while Prime Energy, which is banned in Canada, only has 200 milligrams itself.

Neil, a very sad story that shines some light on some of the irresponsible branding attached to some of these energy drinks. This is super sad, and it's only likely to increase scrutiny from regulators on these burgeoning energy drink market. Young people are drinking less sugary drinks, less juice, less soda, and they're diving into all these energy drinks. But regulators and health authorities say it's really not. healthy for people to, especially young people to be drinking drinks with this much caffeine,

especially if it's not labeled. And in this Panera case, this charged lemonade with 390 milligrams of caffeine was right next to a bunch of other non-caffeinated drinks and did not have appropriate labels. It said it was plant-based, even though it had Guarana, which is, which is a material that has more than two times the caffeine levels of coffee beans. So it's just super sad and shows the risks of this energy drink, boom. being led by influencers and other people. Right.

It's not just that there's an energy drink boom, because there are a ton of new brands coming to shelves, but it's also that they have been marketed as a fitness product, not necessarily like an energy product. And yeah, you look at Pernard's description and said plant base, and then also Celsius burst onto the scene by kind of angling it as like something that you drink before you work out and they have all these fitness influencers.

So it's definitely not the marketing tactics of a monster, or even a Red Bull, which is very extreme. Most of it is also marketed pretty heavily towards males. This new wave of energy drinks is for everyone, for fitness people, and for kids in a lot of cases. So, yeah, very dangerous trend to keep an eye on. That seems to be a crescendo. I mean, I was just looking at this one company, Ghost. They teamed up with Swedish fish, bubblishess, sour patch kids, and warheads for collabs.

Meanwhile, if you look at the label on the actual, on the can, it says it's only intended for persons 18 years or older. That is just incongruous right there. Okay, for our final story, if your friends who went to University of Michigan are being extra quiet these days, it's because a majors cheating scandal has erupted over its football team, which is one of the best in the country. This scandal has taken over college football, and here's the TLDR of what's going on. The NCAA is investigating Michigan over allegations that a staffer named Connor Stallions was stealing play-calling signs from other teams, giving Michigan the ability to know what play the other side was planning to run ahead of the snap. Now, sign stealing isn't illegal in of itself, pretty much every team is suspected of doing it.

But the way Stallions allegedly went about it is prohibited. He reportedly bought tickets to attend football games of Michigan's opponents for scouting. That practice has been banned by the NCAA since 1994 to maintain competitiveness, since the big schools with huge budgets could probably afford the travel and the equipment, in while the smaller schools with smaller budgets couldn't. In this case, some of these tickets bought by Stallions are glaring red flags and absolutely comical. He reportedly bought two tickets on both sides of Ohio Stadium ahead of last week's Penn State

versus Ohio State game, two heavyweights in the same conference Michigan plays in. So now the NCAA will look into whether Stallions was working alone or to what extent this alleged cheating was orchestrated by higher-ups. After all, Stallions makes $55,000 a year, and he reportedly spent more than $1,000. $15,000 sending scouts to more than 40 games played by 10 opponents. This, my favorite detail from this story is someone found this guy's LinkedIn. He had since scrubbed all his social media. But on his LinkedIn, he described his job as identifying the opponent's most likely course

of action, which is very ironic because he's accused of sign stealing, and then identifying and exploiting vulnerabilities in centers of gravity in the opponent's scouting process. So he's almost saying word for word on LinkedIn that he is looking to steal signs. I mean, that's one way that you went to Navy. And apparently that those phrases are common in resumes for people to go to Navy. It's a little bit of a red flag, though, when you're saying your job is identifying the opponent's likely next move. A lot of that could be interpreted as you're stealing signs. What's crazy to me is going to opponent's games ahead of time is allowed in every single pro sport.

It's just in the NCAA that doesn't allow it under this guise of amateur ability, you know, like amateur organization. This is kind of what we were seeing with NIL, name, image, likeness, where they're finally allowing players to monetize themselves. And it just seems like this sport is too big for these amateur rules anymore. And it just seems so anachronistic with the modern age that you shouldn't be able to do this. Every team, you know, every team seal signs no matter what. But this guy just seemed like he was very brazen, very foolish in his attempt. Yeah, the big question comes down to,

did Jim Harbaugh, the head coach, know, and will Michigan have some of its wins vacated or something like that? So there are some serious monetary and business implications on the line if Michigan does, in fact, get penalized for any of Stalin's actions. There's been a bunch of sign-stealing scandals in sports over the past few years. You had the Patriots, and then the big one in baseball was the Houston Astros, which they're still getting booed for. Some people are saying that other rival podcasts are looking at our signs, and when we guess you're back and forth, So we got to make sure our security systems are in place. Hair and makeup, get on that. All right, that is a wrap on our Thursday, Thursday show.

Thanks, as always, for listening. For any comments, questions, concerns, you can reach us at Morning Brew Daily at Morningbrew.com. Let's roll the credits. Emily Miliron is our editor and producer. Samantha Velas and Raymond Liu are associate producers. Eugenwa Ogu is our technical director. Billy Minino is on audio.

Hair and makeup is getting SBF looking all spiffy for the courtroom sketch artist today. Devin Emery is our chief content officer and our show is a production of Morning Brew. Great show today, Neil. Let's run it back tomorrow. Hey, honey, it's Mom. Did you know if we switch to Verizon we can get four phones for $0, plus four lines for $25 a line?

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