Morning Brew Daily - The Oscars Head to YouTube & Tesla Faces Sales Freeze Over Autopilot Marketing

Episode Date: December 18, 2025

Episode 738: Today, Neal and Toby discuss the major media shift in Hollywood where the Oscars will start streaming on YouTube in 2029. Then, how the oil market is being impacted by the conflict between the US and Venezuela and why Tesla sales in California may be paused due to marketing surrounding their autopilot marketing. Finally Neal shares his favorite numbers from this week’s news and the headlines you need to know to start your day.  Subscribe to Morning Brew Daily for more of the news you need to start your day. Share the show with a friend, and leave us a review on your favorite podcast app. Send us your questions for our special Mailbag episode!  Email: [e-mail]  IG: @MBDailyShow Visit public.com/morningbrew to learn more Paid endorsement. Brokerage services provided by Open to the Public Investing Inc, member FINRA & SIPC. Investing involves risk. Not investment advice. Generated Assets is an interactive analysis tool by Public Advisors. Output is for informational purposes only and is not an investment recommendation or advice. See disclosures at public.com/disclosures/ga. Past performance does not guarantee future results, and investment values may rise or fall. See terms of match program at https://public.com/disclosures/matchprogram. Matched funds must remain in your account for at least 5 years. Match rate and other terms are subject to change at any time. Watch Morning Brew Daily Here:⁠ ⁠⁠https://www.youtube.com/@MorningBrewDailyShow⁠ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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Good morning Brudeaily show. I'm Neil Fryman. And I'm Toby Howell. Today, the Academy Awards go to YouTube. And everything seems to be going south for Tesla, except its stock price. It's Thursday, December 18th. Let's ride. Like all of you, Morning Brew Daily is getting our ducks in order before the holidays,

firing off circle back emails and recording special holiday episodes to air during the week of Christmas. For one of those special episodes, we need, your help. Toby and I are going full AMA and will answer questions you have for us and anything is fair game from what our day-to-day schedule looks like to our pick to win the World Cup. If you want your question to be chosen, shoot an email to Morning Brew Daily at morningbrew.com and put question with four question marks in the subject line so it stands out. Make sure it's four or else, how can we tell if you really mean it? We also accept bribes.

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The Oscars just got Will Smith slapped into another dimension of entertainment, ditching broadcast TV for streaming starting in 2029. The lucky service that will be home to Hollywood's biggest night is YouTube. Yes, you'll be able to catch the best picture awards winner between Chiropractor ASMR and Caton Strategy videos.

This is a water show. Shed moment to say the least, marking the end of the Oscars as a broadcast TV staple. ABC had aired the Oscars for more than half a century, but the Academy decided to auction off the rights in recent weeks, and despite YouTube reportedly offering a smaller rights fee than ABC was paying, they ended up winning thanks to the global reach they could offer. Remember, YouTube accounts for 13% of all television viewing time in the U.S., the biggest share of any streaming service, according to Nielsen. What's in it for YouTube? Despite streaming in recent years, the Oscars brings an air of institutional legitimacy and prestige to the platform

and is one of the only events outside of sports and the Macy's Day parade that still draws a reliable live audience. But Hollywood remains skeptical. Screenwriter Daniel Kunka posted on X, YouTube broadcasting the Oscars is like shaking hands with the guy who's trying to kill you. Neil, this feels like the stop. He's already dead Simpsons meme. Streaming has won. Yeah, YouTube is TV now. 13% of all television viewing time in the U.S. And we now know that more people watch YouTube on their big screen TVs at home than on their mobile device or their computer. So the question is, what will the Oscars look like on YouTube and will the audience actually

come over from ABC to YouTube? And will there be a bigger audience in general around the globe? That's what the Academy is hoping for. You wonder what a viewing experience will look like on YouTube. You're watching an Academy Awards, which lasts three to four hours. but you also see all those videos on your right-hand side. Maybe you're just like, oh, that's interesting, best supporting actor, but, oh, Jabal Crawford highlights from 2005.

That looks interesting, and you don't exactly have that same experience on broadcast television. So there is a lot of question marks about how big and the behavior of this particular audience. I think that audiences will go to where the content is. I'm just thinking about YouTube bidding for NFL Sunday ticket and airing some early season games on their YouTube TV streaming platform and 18 million people tuned in. So if you have something like football or like hypothetically the Academy Awards that people want to watch, they will end up finding it there. So I think that was part of their thinking and part of the success of their NFL push has made them emboldened to try and buy up an asset like the Oscars. It is still a good get for YouTube.

Viewership hit a record low of 10.4 million people in 2021, 2021 during the pandemic. Oscars used to peak at 57 million people. So again, we're not in the heyday by any means of even in the history of the Oscars, but it is still a very lucrative asset for TV. The network ABC generated roughly $140 million annually from ad sales when it came to airing the Oscars. Even as ratings have slumped, what they did is just put more ads and charge a premium price for them. So it's still one of the premier events when it comes to TV. So YouTube is getting their hands on a declining, all.

be it still money-making asset. And I don't want to be hyperbolic, but yesterday might go down in history as a watershed moment for the media industry, the day when digital upstarts actually became the kings of the industry, because not only did YouTube take over the Oscars from Disney, but we also had Warner Brothers rejecting Paramount from its new offer and still opting for Netflix. And Netflix is taking over if this deal comes to fruition. HBO and Warner Brothers' movie studio. So you have Warner Brothers Movie Studio, HBO Max, and the Oscars all going to YouTube or Netflix

potentially in what really is a historic day for the changing of the tides in media. I think it makes sense for the Oscars, though. If you want to go where young people are, go to YouTube. There's obviously some inherent irony in the fact that this is celebrating theatrical

institutions, theatrical releases, and yet it is on a streaming service. You even go back to last year's Best Picture winner, Anora. Not lot of people saw it in theaters, but then a few months later it came to Hulu, which is where the vast majority of people have seen it. So everything is symbolic all the way

down. Now, streaming is eating the world and it now just ate the Oscars. And we'll be interesting to see whether they YouTube ify it up, like is Mr. B. Skino's the question, you know? But also, there's going to be no length limits. You know, that was a big contention between ABC and the Academy

was, ABC was saying, we got to go to our other programming. We want you to tighten this up to maybe like three and a half hours. They also had limits on language and what could be shown in a 10 second delay and all of that. And that all goes out the window with YouTube where it might be a bigger free-for-all. So things could get a little even crazier than they actually are. Let's move on. Trump is ratcheting up pressure on Venezuela trying to choke off its economic lifeblood in a high-stakes geopolitical game,

following months of pressure against Nicholas Maduro. Yesterday, Trump ordered a blockade of sanctioned oil tankers entering and exiting Venezuela. Venezuela is completely surrounded by the largest armada ever assembled in the history of South America, Trump wrote on true social. Oil exports are the bedrock of Venezuela's economy, accounting for 90% of its 24 billion in export revenue. Trump has said the blockade would continue until Venezuela returned, quote, all of the oil landed other assets that they previously stole from us. That's likely a reference to the 1970s nationalization of Venezuela.

Venezuela's oil industry and which U.S. oil companies, including Exxon, Mobile, and Shell, lost around $5 billion in assets. The one exception is Chevron, which still operates under a confidential U.S. license, with a spokesperson for the company saying that the latest blockade won't affect its operations, making the U.S. company a key variable in whether this blockade actually works. How is this affecting the broader oil market? Not as much as you might think. Despite Venezuela sitting on one of the largest natural oil deposits in the world, it only accounts for less than 1% of global exports, so prices barely budged despite the blockade threat. Neil, Venezuela's economy is driven almost entirely by a single resource, so it's certainly

susceptible to this sort of pressure. Yeah, tensions are absolutely soaring down there in the Caribbean. Last Wednesday, there was a tanker that was traveling across the Caribbean Sea carrying crude from Venezuela to Cuba and China, which is where all of Venezuela's virtually all of the, you know, as well as oil exports go. And it was seized by the United States because it was a quote unquote sanctioned vessel. You might be wondering, okay, what is a sanctioned vessel? Which kind of tankers are on this particular list?

Well, it's any oil tanker that is a history of violating U.S. sanctions. Virtually all of them are by carrying Iranian oil. So now any tanker that has ever carried Iranian oil is up for grabs for the United States and what are rapidly escalating tensions here. Venezuela does something that tries to skirt U.S. sanctions by operating what they called shadow fleets, are referred to as shadow fleets, which basically digitally spoof their locations. They do all sorts of things to try to skirt these sanctions. Sometimes they fly other countries' flags.

The ship that you just mentioned that was recently seized was flying Guyana's flag, even though it was carrying oil from Venezuela. The U.S. is trying to crack down on that practice in particular. One thing when you zoom out to the broader oil market is that Venezuela, just not as major of a player as it once was. If you go back to its export revenue derived from oil in 2012, it made $120 billion per year. But since then, its supply, its ability to extract oil from the ground and process it has just fallen by the wayside. And now its current oil export revenue is just above $20 billion. So it's not in terms of the global market. Yes,

it might affect some of the oil shipments going into China, but it's just a small player in terms of the amount of oil that is being processed every day around the world. Small player in the global scene, but very big for just the basic functioning of the Venezuela government, which is why this is being very closely watched by people in Caracas and as well as DC. Tesla is going through it. Sales are slumping in the U.S., Europe and China. And this week, it learned it may not be able to sell its cars in California, its biggest American market for 30 days.

Its stock is also near a record. On Tuesday, Tesla shares notched an all-time high as investors in things. for Tesla's robotaxy business overshadowed some of the more short-term challenges. CEO Elon Musk, who owns a whole lot of Tesla shares, now is a net worth of over $630 billion, nearly $400 billion more than the second place guy. The reason behind Tesla's recent stock pop has to do with its massive pivot to AI and self-driving cars, which got closer to actually making the company money this week. Musk said that Tesla has begun testing robotaxies in Austin, Texas, without anyone on board,

representing progress from the safety drivers that have been at the wheel for the past six months. Investors place most of the value of Tesla in this Robotaxy Future, which is why they may be ignoring the major problems affecting its meat and potatoes EV business. On Tuesday, an administrative law judge in California ruled that Tesla has been deceptively advertising its autopilot and full self-driving driver assistance features, confusing customers into believing that they could let their car drive completely on its own when that's not the case. Tesla could face a sales ban of 30 days in the state if it doesn't update its marketing. Tesla shares did pull back from their record high yesterday, but right now, Toby,

seems like the bulls are bucking the bears. It's so bizarre because California, this California issue is no small potatoes. It's the largest market for car sales in the U.S. It's responsible for 11% of the total worldwide number of EVs that Tesla sold in the first nine months of 2025. It is by far their biggest market. and here a judge is saying you've got to either, one, make all your cars actually able to self-drive and, you know, have autopilot accurately describe what's going on or change the name of that

or face a ban. And yet here was Tesla stock just kind of continuing to rip, although you did say it did pull back yesterday. But if any other car company was facing a ban in their biggest market by far, that would send the stock cratering. But as you said, the Tesla trade is beyond EVs at this point, it focuses much more highly on autonomous driving and robotics. And while EV sales are slumping, there's an interesting data point that they aren't slumping as bad as all of the other EV companies, which we know, Ford, it took this $19.5 billion right down earlier this week after this $7,500 tax credit was removed. So Tesla sales are declining, but its market share is actually increasing because it's

not doing as bad as the other EV companies as well. So that is an interesting wrinkle in Tesla's EV story, but that's not really the story that Elon Musk wants to tell it all. He wants to tell you that Tesla will ultimately sell one million humanoid robots that are called Optimus, and they're going to have self-driving cars in every city across the globe. I think Elon did call this to in Q2 when this EV tax credit was ending. He said that ending the credit would be devastating for our competitors and would hurt Tesla slightly. It is true.

Tesla consumers in general tend to be, you know, higher income. so maybe they're less affected by the $7,500 EV tax credit expiring. And then also it is just like a cheaper car than most of the other EVs out there. So fascinating that he did call his shot, but in the long term, that shot isn't what's first and foremost driving the Tesla trade at all. What a roller coaster for Tesla stock. If you're a Tesla stockholder, you have a lot of whiplash this year. There was a 36% plunge in the first quarter.

That was the worst quarter that Tesla's had since 2022. That was when Elon Musk was doing all those Doge things, and there was a, you know, a lot of slumping in the EV business in particular. And Robotaxies seemed like a long way off. But now there's been a huge comeback over the rest of the year. Tesla stock is now up 23% of the year. It's outpacing a lot of the rest of the Magnificent 7 for the last few months. So Elon Musk now worth, what, $630 billion? Jeez, Louise.

All right. Speaking of numbers, we're going to come back with Neal's numbers. Good sleep is everything. That's why Ali's science back support is made with a blend of melatonin and L-D-A-Nine for both kiddos and grown-ups. So when your mind won't switch off, you've got something that can help. You're racing thoughts and restless nights won't stand a chance. Find Ollie's sleep solutions for the whole family at ollie.com. That's O-L-L-L-Y.com.

It's time to refresh your yard during spring backyard days at the Home Depot. Get low prices guaranteed on propane grills, starting at $160. $79, like the next grill three-burner gas grill, or get $50 off a select Webber Spirit grill, and bring big flavor to your backyard, then set the scene with Hampton Bay string lights that bring it all together. Shop spring backyard days for seven days at the Home Depot. Now through May 6th, Exclusion supplies to homedipo.com slash price match for details. Welcome to Neal's Numbers, the segment where I share three stats in the week's news that will make you think this really is the most wonderful time of the year. For my first number, you know, I wouldn't sweat it if you're planning to gift your

family's socks for the holidays. It might be exactly what they want. Shopping data showed that people are going practical over fanciful this holiday season, opting for needs instead of wants given persistent inflation and a shaky economy. According to the Washington Post, online sales of refrigerators and freezers jumped 1,700 percent from average levels in October on Cyber Monday. Vacuum cleaner sales search 1,300 percent. Cookware, 9,000. 50%, power tools, 900% and jackets 850%. Vivek Pandya, director of Adobe Digital Insights, said these are items that are, in many instances, absolutely essential.

Consumers are cognizant of the broad environment, and they're being very strategic about purchases, whether it's for themselves or gift giving. And that's reflected in retail's winners and losers this winter. Discounters like T.J. Max, dollar stores, and Walmart are enjoying booming sales, while purveyors of fancier items are desperate for attention. Black Friday and Cyber Monday, purchases at high-end department stores tumbled 10% from last year, while luxury clothing brands declined 5%. Toby, I hope you don't mind, but I'm getting you a Phillipshead screwdriver for Christmas. I need one, which is exactly why I totally understand where

this story is coming from. A lot of people are shifting their gifts saying like, hey, give me either cash or just give me something I actually need. You know, give me the pot that I have been looking for. Give me the pan that I have been needing in the kitchen. So, Some families have started taking it even further and just wrapping up really basic household items and giving it as gift-giving, like, shampoo bottles and diapers. Because it is still fun to unwrap stuff. That is still an important tradition for a lot of people, even if what's contained inside is not necessarily something that is super fun, but is super practical.

You know, I love that. I mean, that's always what I thought of gift giving somebody something or getting something that I actually need in my day-to-day life. but I understand the counter argument, which is a gift is supposed to be something special and beyond what you need to show you that, you know, I care about your interests broadly more so than just whether you have shampoo or toothpaste in your bathroom. Are you asking for golf balls right now because that is both something you want and need? So the Venn diagram right there, I think golf balls are right in the middle. Okay, for my next number, a humble, much ridiculed vegetable is set to grab the spotlight next year. Of course, I'm talking about the cabbage.

In its 2026 preview, Pinterest identified cabbage as one of its big trends for the year, mentioning that searches for cabbage dumplings spiked by 110%, Polish cabbage soup by 95% and cabbage alfredo by 45% between last summer and this one. Restaurants have also been featuring the veggie a lot more. While already popular on menus in London, the number of American menu items mentioning cabbage grew 20% year-over-year between October 2023 and October 2025. So why are people going loco for leaf? One reason is its nutrient makeup.

Cabbage is high in fiber, which is perfect for a growing number of people who are fiber maxing. It's also cheap to buy, perfect for people who are safe maxing at this time of sticky inflation. Also, dare I say it, cabbage can taste really good if you douse it in enough flavoring like the delicious jar of kimchi I have in my fridge currently. Toby, are you hopping aboard the cabbage train? I've been on the cabbage train. It is delicious. It's so filling, too, because it's just such a large volume. leafy green. So you just toss it in a pan, saute it, and it makes for a pretty good meal.

It is getting support from all sorts of the world sectors of the world right now, because you have the nutritionist saying, like, hey, you should be cabbage maxing. Fiber is the new trend right now. It's going to overtake protein as the trendiest new, you know, nutrient to overdose on in the next year. So you have the nutritionist recommending it. But then you also have the chefs at fine dining places saying like, hey, this is a great vessel for flavor. You can do a lot with cabbage. So you're going to restaurants singing on the menu. You're having your nutritionist whispering your ear. So it's getting, everything's coming up cabbage right now. All right. For my final number, a special birthday for a special person. The legendary author Jane Austen would have

turned 250 years old on Tuesday, sparking celebrations all over the world from adoring fans. In her just 41 years of life, Austin made an indelible mark on the world through her novels, which include pride and prejudice and sense and sensibility. Even people who haven't read her books know that a single man in possession of a good fortune must be in want of a wife. They know all about Elizabeth Bennett and Mr. Darcy, and that's likely because of how many movie and TV adaptations have been inspired by her books. Did you know that Clueless is a modern retelling of Emma and Bridget Jones' diary is based on Pride and Prejudice?

Well, I didn't, but it speaks to the timelessness of her stories. Austin's fame has only grown over time. During World War I and World War II, long after she died, British soldiers were given copies of her books to help them pass the time. In 2017, her portrait was featured on a new 10-pound note released by the Bank of England, and these days, Jane Austen-related tourism generates tens of millions of dollars each year as fans seek out the real-life English settings of their favorite scenes. Compare that to the Paltry, $67,000 Austin earned over her lifetime as an author who mostly

published anonymously as By a Lady. Toby, how are you partaking in Jane Mania? The Austin Industrial Complex is far bigger than anything I could have ever imagined. There are Jane Austen-themed tea sets with flavors like Pride and Peppermint. There's a whole scent industry. You can get a candle that smells like Mr. Darcy walking across a foggy meadow, which admittedly sounds kind of delightful. You can spray yourself with the Jane Austen Library perfume collection. And also, don't get me started about the Jane Austen XXX Adaptation.

There's a book called Pride and Promenclivity, The Lost Sex Scenes of Jane Austen, for sale on Amazon if you're interested. in something like that. She has just translated very well today. The things that she wrote about are enduring themes that relationships and, you know, love and lust and whatever, those are just as true today as they were during her time. So just fascinating at her staying power and how she's arguably the most popular she's ever been even this many years after her death. All right.

Let's sprint to the finish with some final headlines. President Trump gave a primetime address last night defending his handling of the economy at a time when Americans are feeling increasingly downbeat. about persistently high costs of basic things like housing, food, and utilities. Trump casts most of the blame on economic woes on his predecessor, Joe Biden, and that other global leaders have assured him, we are, quote, the hottest country anywhere in the world. It's unclear whether that message will resonate with voters whose views on Trump's handling of the economy have reached an all-time low.

A new NPR PBS News, Marist poll, found just 36% of Americans approve of it, the lowest level in the six years of that poll. and Trump didn't do himself any favors by cutting into the survivor finale. I know, that was the talk of the control room this morning that the survivor value was cut off. But the final thing that Trump also announced was a warrior dividend, which is payments to the military. He says that active and reserve U.S. military members will receive a $1,776.

For as a warrior dividend before Christmas, he said that tariff revenue was contributing to their ability to pay this out. So that was sort of maybe the PR win or maybe the headline win that he was going for with this address saying that all of our servicemen and women are going to get paid. Finally, if you've ever wanted to go to a Roman history museum but wanted it to be a little more claustrophobic and unpleasant, may I introduce you to the city's Coliseum subway station. The stop finally opened on Tuesday after 11 years of construction, but one could say it's been in development since 64 AD. which is when the ancient remains of thermal baths were damaged by a fire,

leaving scattered artifacts behind for modern Romans to discover. The Coliseum stop is part station, part museum, giving commuters a chance to catch their train and a view of artifacts uncovered during the site's excavation. You can find exhibits showing vases, plates, wells, and buckets dating back to the first century, as well as a video of what ancient Romans would have looked like in the same location. I don't know, though.

I still think the metropolitan Lorimer stop on the L, might be better. Well, it certainly has a very high-profile figure living above it, that's for sure. But yeah, building a subway in Rome is a lot like making Caccio Ipe. It looks simple, but it actually requires a lot of precise techniques. And that was required for building what is under Rome is three millennia of civilizations. So it took a lot of delicacy and they actually had to do some hand-dgging to create this subway station. But the reward was worth it because they found more than 500,000, thousand artifacts while creating this station, including 28 ancient wells and a vast military complex that includes a barracks and a commander's villa. But, you know, the people living in Rome

or the people visiting Rome probably don't care a whole lot about that. They care a lot about not going through traffic, which is getting really bad in the center of Rome, and now they can skirt underneath it with the subway. I think it's a great idea. It was probably an unavoidable idea. Whenever you are digging in Rome, you're going to a counter artifacts. So the fact that they just leaned into it and say, let's just make it part museum as well. I can't imagine, though, you're racing to go get your train and suddenly there's a group of tourists huddled around, you know, looking at some old plates. That would drive me crazy. So I hope, you know, Romans are a little more chill than New Yorkers are.

That is all the time we have. Thanks so much for starting your morning with us and have a wonderful Thursday. If you want to get in touch or ask us a question for the upcoming Q&A episode, you can send a note to Morningbrewdaily at morningbrew.com. Remember the four question marks or DM us on Instagram at MB Daily Show. Let's roll the credits. Emily Milliron is our executive producer. Raymond Lue is our producer. Our associate producers are Olivia Graham and Olivia Lake. There's nothing hair and makeup would not do for those who are really their friends. Devin Emery is our president and our show is a production of Morning Brew.

Great show today, Neil. Let's run it back tomorrow.