Morning Brew Daily - The Stock Market is on Fire & Marvel is in Crisis

Episode Date: November 13, 2023

Episode 190: Neal and Toby explain why the stock market has been on fire lately and what investors are thinking. Plus, the AI pin you can wear that is trying to replace smart phones and why Marvel Stu...dios could be in trouble. The guys share their winners of the weekend (imagine being fired and still getting $77 million) and also why tipflation may be at a tipping point. Finally, what we are watching for this week. Listen to Morning Brew Daily Here: https://link.chtbl.com/MBD Watch Morning Brew Daily Here: https://www.youtube.com/@MorningBrewDailyShow Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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Starting point is 00:00:26 Good morning, Brew Daily Show. I'm Neil Freyman. And I'm Toby Howell. On today's pod, will a pin replace your iPhone? One AI startup is trying to make it happen. Then a new study confirms you're not alone if you have no idea when you're actually supposed to tip these days. It's Monday, November 13th. Let's ride.
Starting point is 00:00:52 Toby, I know you're a big donut guy. So I wanted to inform you and our listeners that you can get free donuts at Krispy Kreme this morning to celebrate something. to celebrate something called World Kindness Day. The chain is giving away a dozen donuts to the first 500 people who come to each of its locations. So you could be the office hero today if you take a little initiative. My question is, if you're willing to give away 6,000 donuts, why not one donut for each of the first 6,000 customers? Then you get people coming in all day and people who only get one donut are more likely to buy things from you while at the store. Whereas if you give people a dozen donuts, they're probably like, okay,
Starting point is 00:01:29 like this is plenty. I'm all set here. I'm just going to walk out. I think you're looking at it too much from a business perspective, Neil. That's why they're doing it. You're not looking at it from a maximizing kindness perspective. And I think if you give just one donuts people, then they're like, this wasn't kind enough. I didn't feel like I received enough kindness on World Kindness Day. So you need 12 donuts. That's what I'm thinking went down in the Krispy Cream boardroom. Wow. Okay. Before we dive into the news, let's do a quick shout out to our lovely, lovely sponsor, Brex. Toby, I don't know if a lot of people are aware of this, but you're actually in the middle of founding a pickleball shoe company. That's right, Neil. And the hardest part so far, other than convincing people that pickleball is awesome, is staying on budget. From paying designers to buying inventory, it can be a lot. Sounds like you could use Brex. It has AI-powered alerts that ping you when it recognizes budget anomalies or overages, so you can keep yourself accountable. All right, Neil. See you on the courts then?
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Starting point is 00:02:56 Exclusion supplies to homedipo.com slash price match for detail. Okay, let's jump into our first story of the week, and I want to talk about stocks. And what's been one of the sneakier rallies I can remember, the S&P 500 is up nine out of the past 10 trading sessions, good for a 7.2% rally over the past two weeks. And daily call options, which are a sign of bullish future bets on the S&P 500 going up, hit one of the highest levels on record this month. As usual, it comes back to what's going on with the interest rates and bond market. First, the Treasury announced that it would be increasing the amount of long-term debt it auctions off by a smaller amount than had been expected, which was a welcome surprise that helped drive demand for the bills up, sending yields down.
Starting point is 00:03:41 Plus, Jerome Powell hinted that the Fed might not raise interest rates again before the year ends. Now, all eyes turn towards the future where the market has two more crossroads to navigate. First is the October inflation report, which drops tomorrow. If that comes in cooler than expected, traders might start to full-rength. believe in the end-of-year rally. And finally, the lasting investors are waiting on to see if the Fed will hike interest rates one more time before the year ends. But the main takeaway here, Neil, is that the market has done remarkably well this year, despite tons of uncertainty. The S&P 500 is up 15% year-to-date, and the NASDAQ is up over 32%. Yeah, we had this big rally at the
Starting point is 00:04:20 beginning of the year, and then in the summer there was this slump, and now we're back kind of sneakily, as you said, with the S&P rising 9 out of the 10 last session. This is totally a bet on the fact that the Fed is done, hiking interest rates. We saw that bond yields, which follow interest rates, spike to over 5%, which was the most, the highest level in many decades. Those have fallen and stocks have risen because of that. So, you know, investors think that Jerome Powell said his work is done. I've raised interest rates to 22-year highs, and our work is done here.
Starting point is 00:04:54 Inflation is coming back down, and stocks are prime for a rally. One thing that really sit out to me is that people got way more bullish on the market in just a span of one week. So this stat comes from a survey from the American Association of individual investors. The share of investors who said they expected share prices to rise over the next six months jumped to 43% last week, up from 24% a week prior. So that's crazy. Almost double the amount of people are bullish over the span of a week, and it just goes to show you how much the markets kind of hang on every last word. Yeah, there was another bullish report from Goldman Sach. who wrote the title of their report was, The Hard Part is over. They are betting that there's
Starting point is 00:05:31 going to be no U.S. recession, that inflation is going to continue to fall back to 2%. The global economy is going to continue to grow next year, and all major financial markets will do better than cash, which is not that easy these days when you can get 4 to 5% on cash. Remember, if we zoom out and we go back to the beginning of this year, more than two-thirds of economists at 23 major financial institutions expected the U.S. to have a downturn. That never really came to fruition. And then also economists surveyed at the beginning of year said that they expected the unemployment level to reach above 5%. It's currently at 3.9%. So this is just a kind of come back around and check in on all those predictions and forecasts and see where we're currently
Starting point is 00:06:11 at. And again, the market especially is doing a lot better than anyone expected. There was a little bad news last week, which was we didn't talk about because it came out on Thursday or Friday, which was Moody's, the credit rating agency, downgraded its outlook on the U.S. government debt to negative from stable. And if you remember, Moody's is the only one that still maintains a AAA rating, which is the highest rating for U.S. government debt. The other two credit rating agencies, Fitch and Standard & Poor's, have knocked the U.S. down to AA plus, which is the second highest from the top.
Starting point is 00:06:43 So they're worried a little bit about U.S. government debt and our ability to repay that in this era of high interest rates. So the U.S. Treasury Secretary Jenny Yellen and the Biden administration knocked that decision, but there is a little concern going around around the U.S. debt levels. Okay, moving on. Last Thursday, we got to look at what a post-smartphone future might look like, and it looks like a pin. A startup founded by X Apple employees, Humane A.I.
Starting point is 00:07:11 Released a pin that it thinks will be a smartphone killer. For $700 and a $24 monthly fee, you attach this pin to your shirt and use voice prompts to tell an AI chatbot what to do. No screen, no scrolling, no apps, just the first. P. Humane's goal is to end the smartphone era by looking forward and backward. The backward part is the idea that we're all addicted to our phones, and by eliminating scrolling and screen time, we can be more connected to each other. The forward part is AI. If you think AI is this once-in-a-century tech innovation, then it probably isn't best used with hardware we've designed
Starting point is 00:07:45 for a bygone era. If you have a free-flowing conversation with a really smart chatbot to look something up, reply to emails, take a photo, then maybe you don't need a bunch of apps cluttering a screen So, time will tell if this pin will be a smartphone killer. I have my doubts for sure. But it still is a fascinating concept as companies raised to develop an AI-first consumer gadget. Yeah, there's a lot to say about this. I'm going to start with some of the positives, maybe.
Starting point is 00:08:11 And I think they're going about the- Feedback sandwich. Yeah, feedback sandwich. It's the positives, negative positives. I think they're going about the creep factor in the right way because a lot of this new era of computing where there's all these devices that some people are wearing AI devices around their necks, you have the meta smart sunglasses, and you never really know if someone is recording you or not.
Starting point is 00:08:32 Humane is doing this thing where it makes you tap the device in order to activate it, so it's not always non. It's not waiting for a wake word like, hey, Siri or something like that. And then once you tap it, a light flashes. So I do think that's a big thing that they head on addressed is that no one wants to be feel like they're being recorded in public. And so having it tap rather than waiting for a wake word. I think was a good decision on that creep factor front.
Starting point is 00:08:57 You know what the use case that could really, that would get me to buy this, is if I could ask it what my flight number is when I'm checking in. Because apparently you can retrieve anything from your emails from this device. So if I'm at the kiosk at United or something, and I'm like, what is my flight number? Because I can never find out. I have to go through a million emails. So that's just one example to say that this thing could drive a lot of efficiencies and make a lot of people's lives better if they don't have to sort through their email.
Starting point is 00:09:22 You're gone for vacation for a month. you come back, you put on the pen, you say, catch me up on anything that I need to know about, about X or Y client or something like that. That was also a very nice feedback sandwich. Also, one thing that is interesting to me is that holding up food to the camera, you can get nutritional information,
Starting point is 00:09:38 and it's a little dicey on how well this actually works because even in the demo video, they identified how much protein was in almonds and they kind of got that number wrong. But that's an interesting UK case as well, that you're shopping in a store, you hold up a watermelon, you hold up a dragon fruit as they put in there,
Starting point is 00:09:54 example video and they say, is this good for me? You can just ask it a very conversational question like that and it'll kind of take you through the sugar content or something like that and say, yes, it is good for you or something like that. But let's get to the butt part. Yeah, the big butts are, I feel like no one wants to talk to a pin in public because that is a very unnatural and antisocial thing to do is, again, a phone you can call as antisocial because we're all buried in it, but at least you're not speaking out loud in the middle of a grocery store to your pin. And I just can't see that becoming a social norm that becomes acceptable. But hey, prove me wrong, I guess.
Starting point is 00:10:29 I think a few problems are the screen. You still have to look at stuff. Like, we're humans. We have to look at stuff. We can't always digest information auditorily. And for the screen, instead of having a screen, what this does is this has lasers that projects a, basically a smartwatch interface onto your hand as you hold it up. So you said you can't imagine people talking to a pin in public.
Starting point is 00:10:51 I can't imagine everyone holding up their hand just to look at something in public. Well, that's what we're currently doing, right? No, I'm not. I don't do it at all. It's a phone right now when you have your phone out. So I do think the auditory versus more, and although I will give you credit, it is awkward to hold your hand at this unnatural angle to get it projected upon. Plus there's no apps, and they touted the fact that there's no apps.
Starting point is 00:11:13 But in a pretty scathing review for Ars Technica, the reviewer was like, the fact that this doesn't have any apps is going to be its killer because if I want to, to listen to music, I have to do it through basically any of the services that Humane has partnerships with, so I have to listen to title. I can't just download Apple Music or Spotify, and you run the gamut through all of the basic services. So, I mean, I think I can say we're both pretty bearish on this particular pin, but I do think something will come along that ends the smartphone because it was not designed for AI. My pick is it's going to be glasses. Yeah, I want to try it personally. So $699, I'll break the bang for it.
Starting point is 00:11:50 For our next story, I want to talk about just how bad the new Marvel movie did at the box office. The movie from Marvel is titled The Marvels and stars Bree Larson as Captain Marvel. But no matter how many times they slapped their name on it, it couldn't capture the attention of moviegoers. It brought in just 47 million in ticket sales in the U.S. and Canada this past weekend, which is the lowest ever for a Marvel release. But it's even worse when you consider it costs $300 million to make and market. Neil, this is the Mighty Marvel we're talking about. From 2008, when Iron Man came out, it has pretty much been nonstop, banger after banger. 32 films across more than 15 years brought in $30 billion in total,
Starting point is 00:12:31 accumulating in a $2.8 billion haul for Avengers endgame. But how far the Mighty have fallen? To be fair, the Marvels were dealt a tough hand with the actor strike hamstringing its ability to promote the film. But there's also a general vibe around Marvel right now that you have to have watched previous films or TV shows to know what the heck is happening anymore. There is light at the end of the tunnel. The actor's strike is officially over, which means actors can go back to promoting their movies
Starting point is 00:12:57 while eating Hot Wings or hosting SNL. Plus, Disney only has one Marvel release planned for next year, which means they might be able to prioritize quality over quantity again. But Neil, the Ls keep mounting for the once untouchable studio. I got to say, I was watching the Patriots game yesterday. This feels a lot like what the Patriots are going through right now. The total end of a dynasty. I mean, the New York Times review for this was The Marvel's Review.
Starting point is 00:13:23 You've seen this movie 32 times before. And we totally have. I mean, just to talk about this of the fact that this was a sequel, this was the worst performing sequel ever. It made $100 million less than the previous version in 2019, not even adjusted for inflation. No sequel has ever made $100 million less in its opening debut than this. So this is truly a horrific performance. Yeah. Just like Billy Zappy.
Starting point is 00:13:49 I think part of the problem is Disney Plus has just been so thirsty for new content to attract subscribers that they started cranking out just way too much contact, way too much of these TV shows, which also resulted in this varying quality of visual effects as well. The VFX team at Marvel has spread so thin that they literally unionized after Quantum Man, Ant Man Quantum Man came out. So it is just, you're seeing kind of it breaking at all edges from the VFX to the audience demand for movies like this. And I think it all came down to, they launched a streaming service. They're like, we need new content. People like superhero content. Let's just inundate them with that. And you're seeing the repercussions of that.
Starting point is 00:14:32 They'll pull back. Let's just talk about quick, the movies that are coming out for the rest of the year because it's kind of fun. The Hunger Games prequel comes out on Friday, which I have no interest in seeing, but maybe you do. I'd certainly want to, even though I knew it. I didn't know it was coming out because it wasn't promoted until recently. Yeah, I'm telling you. I'm doing their promotion. Okay, and then we have Napoleon, which I'm definitely into Ridley, Scott, and
Starting point is 00:14:51 Joaquin'Fee, Wanka, December 15th, Timothy Shalameh, a young Wonka, and the story shows how he met the umpalumpas originally. Heath Ledger, or not Heathletcher. Who's the umpulupa in it? It's the, uh, Hugh Grant. Yeah, Hugh Grant. And then Ferrari comes out Christmas Day with Adam Driver. So that seems pretty dope.
Starting point is 00:15:10 Good movie slate. All right, Neil, before we jump in the next half our show, we're going to Take a quick break. Wishing you could be there live for the big game, soaking up the atmosphere in the crowd, but too often, life gets busy, or the price holds you back. Priceline is here to help you make it happen. With millions of deals on flights, hotels, and rental cars,
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Starting point is 00:16:11 When you want savings, not surprises. It matters where you stay. Hilton for this day. Let's head to our winners of the weekend where Toby and I choose two people or things that are bringing everyone donuts this morning. I won the pre-show air guitar riff off, so I get to go first. And my winner is Jimbo Fisher, the former head football coach at Texas A&M. Now, I realize that picking Jimbo is a weird choice because he actually got fired this weekend for failing to lift his team out of mediocrity. But he's still clearly a winner because Texas A&M must now pay him the 77 million.
Starting point is 00:16:47 that's left on his contract through 2031. And if getting $77 million for doing poorly at your job sounds like a lot, it is. It's more than triple the largest known bio ever given to a college football coach. And it's far more than the $45 million Jimbo made while he actually coached there for six years. So just another staggering piece of evidence to show how college football is swimming in money, but not for the players. And sought after coaches are able to tilt contracts in their favor even when they don't perform well. The funniest part about this to me is you were telling me before the show that oil prices actually influence how the, how willing the Texas A&M boosters are to fund or do a buyout like this.
Starting point is 00:17:30 And with oil approaching like $100 a barrel, they probably felt a little better about maybe getting rid of Jimbo Fisher and eating this just massive, massive golden parachute of buyout. Because Texas A&M is in West Texas, and a lot of Texas A&M alum are in the oil industry out there. So, yeah, when oil prices are rising, they're feeling flush with cash and can take a little more aggressive tack. In some ways, Saudi Arabia overpaying for soccer players is very similar to Texas A&M overpaying for football head coaches. It is an interesting ripple effect, certainly, of the global oil market. My winner of the weekend is buy, now, pay later companies. Both Clarna and a firm reported their quarterly results this week, and it went swimmingly. A firm saw 37% revenue growth while Clarna was not far behind with 30% revenue growth.
Starting point is 00:18:21 And this is notable because by now, pay later companies were not supposed to do well in this current rate environment. Higher interest rates were supposed to hurt because, unlike banks who fund their loans by receiving deposits, BNPL companies need to get their funds from the capital markets like stocks or bonds or the securitization markets, where they bundle together a portfolio of their loans and sell them to investors. So when the federal funds rate is hovering over 5%, banks hypothetically should have an advantage because their cost of acquiring capital, aka getting deposits, is way cheaper and easier than BNPL companies. But that hasn't quite come to fruition.
Starting point is 00:18:57 Banks have found it harder to attract depositors than they expected. Meanwhile, pension funds and other asset managers are digging the returns on credit that a firm can offer. So while it's been a dark past few months for a firm, in Klarna between falling stark prices and layoffs for both companies. It looks like they are back. They're back. They're much smaller than they were, but they're somewhat back.
Starting point is 00:19:18 Clarna was the most valuable European startup in history, and now its valuation is about 85% lower than it was. So, yes, it's much smaller, but they did just post its first profitable quarter. So sometimes, you know, in tougher times, you get leaner and meaner and come out in a more positive way. Yeah. And then both companies also. reported less delinquencies, which means that they lost a lot less money on people who did not make their payments. And that's good for the overall health of the economy as well, because you don't
Starting point is 00:19:48 want people falling behind on these kind of microloans that Klarna in a firm provide people. And they got the full holiday spending season around the corner. So the glow up is real. For our next story, let's talk tipping. I know a lot of our listeners out there have had the dreaded experience where you order an already too expensive latte than are confronted. with a screen suggesting an ungodly high amount of tip. It's anxiety-inducing makes you feel like a bad person if you don't tip, and it's becoming increasingly common, according to a new Pew Research Report. 72% of Americans say that tipping is expected in more places than five years ago,
Starting point is 00:20:27 and even though we are being asked to tip everywhere from the coffee shop to the barbershop, over a quarter of Americans are still confused about what services they're actually supposed to tip for. The only thing people are sure about is tipping at a sit-down. restaurant, with 92% saying they tip in that circumstance. Other notable tipping scenarios are 78% will tip when getting a haircut, 76% will tip when having food delivered, and 61% will tip when using a taxi or a ride share service. Neil, tipping has become a whole lot easier these days, given our quick access to the calculator apps on our phone and the rise of those iPad checkout systems.
Starting point is 00:21:03 But tipping norms are more metal than ever, as the Pew Report shows. do you think we're entering an age or are living in an age of tipflation? I think probably the cases for, I think it's a specific scenario, which is the fast casual restaurant, I think, and the coffee shop. I think that's where those kiosks have proliferated because everyone uses toast or square all these POS point of service, point of sale systems. And I think, you know, we've always tipped for delivery or we've always tip for when you go out to a restaurant or at a haircut.
Starting point is 00:21:35 But I don't think those have changed in any significant way, but I think the use of this tech at, you know, at coffee shops and at fast casual restaurants is where people are feeling a little more uneasy because they're not, you know, they're just kind of ordering a bowl of food or just someone pouring a drip coffee or making them a coffee. And they're just, you know, they're a little confused about the how to tip at those specific locations. And I think that has kind of created an aura of confusion overall. I think tipping has gone from a way to reward service to a more of a social norm. So the difference is now there's this pressure to conform to this new tipping culture. So now societal pressure has become the main driver tipping rather than just rewarding someone for good service. So I do think that's where the breakdown happens where is it good service if yes, someone just poured me a coffee? You want to reward people for doing if they're in the service industry.
Starting point is 00:22:30 But now it's not necessarily something where you think they poured their coffee better than someone else. else, you just feel obligated to because of the pressure that you feel from society at large. So I think it's a fine line, but that's where a lot of this anxiety is coming from. See, I don't think there's that much more anxiety than there has been. I think we've always talked about tipping as American society. I remember there's a Seinfeld episode from the 90s where George gives a tip into a jar, but the guy who works there isn't looking. So he's like, oh, what was the point of that?
Starting point is 00:23:01 So he reaches into the jar to take it back out. And then, of course, the employee turns around, and they have a whole discussion around tipping and what the point is. So I think this is just... Put that on Neil's Tombstone, by the way. I was, there's this Seinfeld episode that... I just wanted to show that I don't think all this anxiety around tipping is anything particularly new. I think these kiosks are the big thing. And when you get prompted for a tip for a self-checkout thing, then that is, I think, what bugs people.
Starting point is 00:23:29 But for service industry workers, it's a big deal to obviously get a... significant tip. All right, let's hit a preview of our week ahead. Probably the biggest event happening this week is a face-to-face meeting between President Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping at a summit of leaders in San Francisco. Both Xi and Biden have said they want to repair the deteriorating relationship between the world's two largest economies, but expectations for a breakthrough are low for this particular meeting. Also worth noting, while he's in SF, she will be the guest of honor at a dinner with the CEOs of top American companies and hundreds of other business leaders.
Starting point is 00:24:03 So it just shows how China is still a huge market for U.S. companies. Yeah. I always just wonder how awkward these meanings are because you're sanctioning the heck out of each other. You're restricting chip technology. And now you're supposed to sit down and just shake hands and smile at each other. So I would love to be a fly on the wall and what they're talking about. But just the awkwardness level to me, too much. Nah.
Starting point is 00:24:25 Have you met a politician? They live for this. They can either bash people somewhere and then they go shake hands with them. dinner, like that's the whole game. Not for me. Okay, up next. Tell me if you've heard this one before. The government is set to shut down at midnight on Friday and lawmakers are scrambling to pass a spending bill to keep the government open. On Saturday, GOP House Speaker Mike Johnson unveiled a very complex plan to fund the federal government through the winter. A vote could come as soon as tomorrow. But again, it's facing opposition from both Democrats and Republicans. So we'll see
Starting point is 00:24:54 see what happens. I can't believe we're having this conversation again. Also, Mike Johnson still feels like a made-a politician to me. So great to have an AI. generated speaker navigating us through another funding standoff. Okay, on the earnings front, it's retailers time to shine. Walmart, Walmart, Home Depot, Target, and Macy's will all share their Q3 reports and give us an update on how the American consumer is doing. Given that consumer spending accounts for three quarters of the entire U.S. economy, it's going to be a big deal.
Starting point is 00:25:21 And so far, as we've talked about many times on this show, Americans are still shopping their butts off even during a period of very high interest rates. We were in Central Jersey this weekend and saw an hour. absolutely jammed pack Home Depot parking lot. So this is me predicting Home Depot will do well based off of one parking lot in Central Jersey. Okay, let's go to the world of sports. The big event to look for is F1 in Vegas. Yep, Formula One is returning to the strip for its first Grand Prix in four decades.
Starting point is 00:25:49 It should be a massive party. And once again, all eyes will be on the sphere. By the way, ticket prices and hotel prices are plunging at the moment. So if you've been eyeing a last-minute trip, maybe not the worst idea in the world to pull the trigger. I do think this is a bit of a make, not make or break it event for F1 in the U.S. Because interest has definitely waned since the boom times of when that Netflix series came out. So this is where the rubber meets the road and hopefully they can get it back on track. It's just not competitive.
Starting point is 00:26:16 This guy Max for Staff and wins a race every single time he gets behind the car. So it's just not that interesting to watch. But luckily, I mean, when you have something in Las Vegas, the sport, the competition itself is always the side show. So maybe it makes sense. But yes, I'm pretty, you know, I'm pretty bearish on F1 after the hype during the pandemic. It might have been a low-interest rate phenomenon. Okay, finally, entertainment-wise, the final season of the Crown will premiere on Netflix on Thursday. Heard great things about the show.
Starting point is 00:26:43 I know Emily loves it. Not sure if I can catch up before Thursday, but I think it's in my top three to watch list. Yeah, our producer, Emily, was talking about before the show, how she tried to log onto her Netflix account, realized she was kicked off the, like, the family plan. So I do think when a big show like this comes back, you will see Netflix's password sharing crackdown. A lot of people kind of come to Jesus moment and say, oh, wait a second, I got to get my own account now. I totally can see Reed Hastings be like, we had a great Q for, you know, we got 5 million more subscribers after the Crown premiered. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:27:15 So that was your Reed Hastings voice right there? Totally. I know exactly what you sound like. I heard him talk many times. Okay, we've got to end our show there. Have a great start to the week, everyone. And remember, you can become our pen pal by writing to Morning Brew Daily at Morningbrew.com. The inboxes hop in these days, which we love to see.
Starting point is 00:27:32 Let's roll the credits. Emily Milliron is our editor and producer. Samantha Velas is our associate producer. Eugenwa Ogu is our technical director. Billy Minino is on audio, hair and makeup, graciously volunteered to wait in line at Krispy cream. Devin Emery is our chief content officer and our show is a production of Morning Brew. Great show today, Neil. Let's run it back tomorrow. All.
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