Morning Brew Daily - Trade War Spills Over Champagne & Meta Tries to Slow Tell-All Book

Episode Date: March 14, 2025

Episode 539: Neal and Toby chat about Trump’s latest tariff threat that has escalated trade wars on alcohol. Who needs a drink? Then, a former Meta employee publishes a book detailing the toxic environment at the top level and Meta is doing everything in its power to stop it. Also, Wall Street is applauding the arrival of Intel's new CEO, making it our Stock of the Week. And Kohl’s weak forecast makes it the Dog of the Week. Meanwhile, Formula 1 makes its grand return to the starting line and everyone is anticipating Lewis Hamilton’s newest digs. Subscribe to Morning Brew Daily for more of the news you need to start your day. Share the show with a friend, and leave us a review on your favorite podcast app. Listen to Morning Brew Daily Here: https://link.chtbl.com/MBD Watch Morning Brew Daily Here: https://www.youtube.com/@MorningBrewDailyShow There are risks involved with investing in ETFs, including possible loss of money. ETFs are subject to risks similar to those of stocks. Investments focus in a particular sector, such as technology, are subject to greater risks and are more greatly impacted by market volatility, than more diversified investments. The Nasdaq-100 Index® includes the 100 largest non-financial companies listed on the Nasdaq. An investment cannot be made directly into an index. Invesco Distributors, Inc. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Good morning, Brewed Daily Show. I'm Neil Fryman. And I'm Toby Howell. Today, France has got champagne problems after Trump floated a 200% tariff on European alcohol. Ben A meta secured a key legal victory against a whistleblower, leaving the future of her memoir in doubt. It's Friday, March 14th. Let's ride. Good morning.

Happy Friday and happy Pie Day 314, the day we celebrate the most elegant of all irrational numbers. Pi, defined as the ratio of a circle's circumference to its diameter, has been key to the development of math because it's used to understand anything that involves a circle, sphere, or curve. And at 22 trillion known digits and counting, it's also been excellent material for memorization contests. The person who holds the unofficial world record for reciting the most digits of pie from memory is a Japanese guy named Akira Haraguchi, who in 2006 counted more than 100,000 digits over 16 hours. That's a lot. That is a lot. And I was thinking about my own training with pie in the past, because I think a lot of people have, you know, gone through a pie phase. Maybe that's just me. But this one technique that I recommend using is called the Memory Palace. You've probably seen it in Sherlock Holmes Show from a few years back. But it involves creating an imaginary place in your mind where you sort of store these mnemonic images that represent strings of numbers. So, for instance, you might take a stroll through that location.

For me, it's like my childhood bedroom is what I use in order to, you know, do a pie recitation contest. And it worked pretty well for me. I got up to like 50 to 100 digits. I still got, you know, 50 in the Memory Palace locked in today. I will spare you all from hearing that, though, because that's not good podcast and just hear you hear me rattle off some digits here and there. But yeah, try the Memory Palace technique out.

You might not get to 100,000 digits, but it's a good kicking off point. Now a word from our sponsor in VescoQQQQ, Neil, how you feel? about your sleep schedule these days. Well, it is not great. Too much thinking, not enough sleeping. What's keeping you up at night? I think information overload. I'm always reading about business news and the market, and it leaves me wondering if I'm investing in the right stuff. Have you heard of InvestcoQQQ? It contains 100 of the most innovative companies in the NASDAQ,

so you can sleep easy knowing that the future is yours to access. An ETF as a sleeping aid. Who would have thought? It's been tracking the NASDAQ 100 for over 25 years and helping people access better information. With Investco QQQ you can rethink what's possible. Before investing, consider the fund's investment objectives, risks, charges, and expenses. Visit investco.com for a prospectus with this information. Read it carefully before investing. Full disclosure and podcast description. Own it all. Pay off your home, travel for life. Drive a Ferrari. In celebration of the world premiere of the Monopoly Big Board Buckslot machine by Aristocrat Gaming, Yamava Resort and Casino at San Manuel is giving one person a $1.6 million dream package. the biggest prize in Yamava's history. Club Serrano members can earn daily instant prizes

and secure a spot in the finale May 29. Don't pass go and own it all. Only at Yamava, celebrating its 40th anniversary. UN? Details at yamava.com must be 21-20. Please gamble responsibly. Monopoly is a trademark of Hasbro. Hasbro is not a sponsor of this promotion.

Toast's not tariffs. That was the plea of the alcohol industry as they found themselves once again as the fall guy in the escalating trade war between the U.S. and Europe. President Trump took aim at the bubbly yesterday morning when he said he'd put a 200% tariff on wine, champains, and other alcoholic products coming out of France and the EU. The threat was a response to Europe announcing a 50% tariff on Kentucky bourbon and other American goods,

which itself was a response to Trump putting a 25% tariff on aluminum and steel from all countries. It's a jab left hook, then uppercut in the heavyweight economic boxing match of our age. No one on both sides of the Atlantic had particularly nice things to say about each other. Trump called the EU one of the most hostile and abusive taxing and tariffing authorities in the world, while France's foreign minister replied, we will not give in to threats and will always protect our industries. Caught in the crossfire are alcohol companies who have consistently been targeted in trade spats because they're so core to national identity. Toby, a 200% tariff means European wines would become two to three times more expensive. Looks like it's California cab instead of Bougoulet on the menu for the foreseeable future.

Seriously, even a bottle of Prosecco that you might pop for 15 bucks, that's now getting up to $45. So that's what a 200% tariff does. It adds 200% to the cost. French wine producers have typically been in this very chummy relationship with the United States. It's their biggest export market. But right now, the vibes at Grand Chateaus and vineyards in Europe are not good right now. because when you talk to American wine importers, you either have to, if you are an American wine importer, you have to decide whether, one, to pass on those costs to consumers or, two, just stop importing altogether.

So it's not, it used to be this love, love relationship, but now it's a lose-lose relationship. Yeah, I mean, these tariffs would be quite high, and we should say they are not, they have not gone into effect. Yeah, there might be a negotiating period, and we all just drop them. But we'll see in 2020, China imposed tariffs as high as 200. 18% on Australian wine. That caused exports to plunge by 90%. So that's what you're hearing from the wine importing industry saying we import a lot of wine from France and Italy, the two biggest markets for import. And if 200% tariffs go into effect, we're just not going to import that. And we'll turn to the U.S. wine industry, but they just don't make enough to

fill our shelves. So they are expecting a lot of pain. And then the economic chaos unleashed by these tariffs, even though it is affecting a very niche industry. We did see stocks fall again yesterday. Broadly, they fell 1.4% on Thursday. That's now we have reached a correction, which means that we are down 10% from February's all-time high. We've now fully erased all the post-November election gains. So we're back at levels, not seen since September of last year. I mean, it sounds ridiculous to say, but we're not, we're at levels only seen that last year in September. In response to all this, though, Treasury Secretary Scott Besant basically shrugged his shoulders. Yesterday, he said that the White House is focused on, quote, the real economy and not concerned about a little market

volatility in response to these specific proposed 200% tariffs on EU alcohol products. He said, I'm not sure why that's a big deal for markets. So the overall vibe and messaging we're getting from percent and the White House is that the current trade war and tariffs are meant to create long-term economic health and that small market corrections might be necessary to, you know, shore up the broader economy for success. Meanwhile, after a long period of silence, CEOs of major companies and banks in the United States are speaking up a little bit about what they think about tariffs. It's been a mixed bag. Jamie Diamond of JP Morgan, perhaps the most influential private sector CEO around had previously said get over it when it

came to tariffs. This was after Trump was elected. Now on Wednesday, he said at a conference uncertainty is not a good thing. while his rival David Solomon at Goldman Sachs said that companies understood what Trump was trying to accomplish but made a public appeal for more certainty, certainty, uncertainty. That is the big word you're hearing out of the C-suite of corporate America about what they are, you know, they think that uncertainty will lead to lower investment. They're trying, you know, in public and in private to lower the temperature with this trade war. Meta really doesn't want you to read this book.

The social media company is taking legal action to prevent a former employee from promoting her new memoir. The book titled Careless People is written by Sarah Wynne Williams, a former meta executive who uses its pages to provide a detailed account of her six years at the company. It touches on global controversy since as the platform's role in Myanmar, its influence during the 2016 U.S. presidential election, and lob sexual misconduct allegations at former CEO Cheryl Sandberg and Joel Kaplan is Chief Global Affairs Officer.

Obviously, these are things meta doesn't want out in the public discourse. A meta spokesperson responded stating that the book contains, quote, a mix of out-of-date and previously reported claims and false accusations about our executives. But meta went a step further, filing an arbitration demand against Wyn Williams, saying that the claims in her book violate a non-disparagement agreement she signed when she left the company. And they succeeded. An emergency arbitrator ruled this week that Wynne Williams can no longer promote or to

distribute the memoir or make any disparaging critical or otherwise detrimental comments. The two parties are now set to enter private arbitration. Neil, the filing doesn't stop the publisher, Flatiron Books, from continuing its publication and promotion of the book. So it's not like it will just disappear off shelves, but still, this was a legal win for meta. But stricand effect much? I mean, this book came out on Tuesday and it contained certainly explosive allegations, but we were not going to talk about it at all.

Now here we are on Friday talking about this book because of Mehta's big, large-scale pushback and its arbitration win here against the author. So you could question Mehta's PR strategy, but there's no question. They've been on a full court press. They got former and current employees to speak highly of Sandberg, Zuckerberg, and Kaplan. They published a blog post as well pushing back against these allegations. Meta's PR team has been through this so many times before. there have been a number of crises that have engulfed this company over the past decade from

Cambridge Analytica to the election, to whistleblower complaints about how they, you know, hid harmful effects of Instagram. So meta has been doing this a long time. You can question their strategy, but they certainly have a strategy. This does feel like a more forceful, you know, public repudiation of a former employee's tell-all because you are right, like Francis Hagan last year or two years ago, was another whistlebril. blower that kind of they went through this past thing, but they usually don't, you know, pursue legal action to try to reduce the promotion or publication of a book, especially because

in 2023, the National Labor Relations Board ruled that it's generally illegal for companies to offer severance agreements that actually prohibit workers from making disparaging statements about their former employers. So that includes stuff like sexual harassment or sexual assault accusations. So it's interesting that they found that there was any legal standing here, given that NLRB, kind of ruling from a few years ago. So just fascinating that this was one particular book that they did take this pretty severe action against. And if you're curious about the book, I mean, it's been well reviewed by a number of publications, not meta, but, you know, outside reviewers, careless people. The title refers to actually the Great Gatsby and the two main characters from that book.

Tom and Daisy who smashed up things and creatures and let other people clean up the mess they had made, and that refers to Mark Zuckerberg and Cheryl Sandberg. So there's a little taste of what you can expect if you pick up the book. Welcome to Stock of the Week, Dog of the Week, the segment where Toby and I pick one stock that hit the gym every single day and another that bailed because they were too tired. I won the pre-show Pie Baking Contest, so I get to go first. And my winner is Intel because the struggling chipmaker hired a new store. CEO and investors loved the pick.

Shares popped 15% yesterday after Intel selected Lipbued Tan to lead it out of the darkness and into the light. Tan is a well-known figure inside the semiconductor industry, having previously been the CEO of Cadence Design Systems, a maker of software used by all the big chip designers. He's also a known figure inside Intel because he was on the board of the company until recently. But being the boss of Intel is like being the head coach of the giants. There is just so much work to do before you can be taken seriously again. Intel Wift on the AI boom has spent tons of money building a questionable foundry business

and went through three CEOs in seven years. Once the king of the American chipmakers, Intel is now valued at less than 1 30th, the size of NVIDIA. In a note to employees after his hiring, Tan wrote, there's nothing I dislike more than losing. Toby, can he turn Intel into a winner? I don't know. The Giants metaphor is apt because Intel is in a strong.

struggling place right now. I will say, though, that so LIP was on, or Tan was on Intel's board until August 2024, where he left after having differences with how to position the business with the now-outed CEO, Pat Gelsinger, which might be exactly why he appeals to Wall Street, because Tan frequently pushed for a better AI strategy, he wanted faster decision-making, he wanted to break up the notoriously bureaucratic organization. So one source told the editor of Yahoo finance that if anyone can save Intel, it's lip, but it will take years and a partner. So it does look like he is the man for the job. But I also find it ironic, too, because over the last month, Intel's actually been rising

a little bit on the hopes that they will separate their foundry business, which was this big push into taking on TSM and fabricating their own chips. And Wall Street was never really sold on it. That was a big Gelsinger thing to do. But then Lip Butan has come in and said that he'll, he's signaling that he's probably going stick with that plan and yet the stock still rallied. So I don't really know what the stock is rallying on at this point because those are two kind of conflicting pieces of data right there. Maybe it's just that they think this really is the man to turn Intel around.

And if not, I mean, he'll be, could be the last CEO that Intel ever has because if this turnaround plan fails, then it is likely that Intel will be sold for parts to vultures. So it could be the turnaround of a once fallen American giant, similar to we saw with General Electric, but it also could be the breakup of a once iconic American giant. Up next, it is our dog of the week. Today we helped a... Latte for Sam. Coffee shop, get an insurance quote simply and easily, and made sure...

A floral delivery van was able to make someone's day. We're the Hartford, with decades of experience ensuring millions of unique small businesses. When it comes to your small business insurance... Thank you. One size? absolutely does not fit all. Get a quote or find an agent today at thehartford.com slash small business.

It's time to refresh your yard during spring backyard days at the Home Depot. Get low prices guaranteed on propane grills starting $179 like the next grill three burner gas grill. Or get $50 off a select Weber Spirit grill and bring big flavor to your backyard. Then set the scene with Hampton Bay string lights

that bring it all together. Shop spring back. yard days for seven days at the Home Depot. Now through May 6th. Exclusion supplies to homedebo.com slash price match for details. My dog of the week is Coles. For a long time, Coles has been a store that you run into for socks, but somehow leave also with a blender.

But lately fewer people are making that blender impulse buy or buying socks. The department store reported a rough end to 2024, with sales plunging 6.5% and profits cut nearly in half. Coals also warned investors that next year looks easy. even gloomier, with a much weaker sales forecast for the year ahead, causing the stock to plummet by more than 27% this week. CEO Ashley Buchanan still fresh on the job amidst a lot of the company's wounds were largely self-inflicted. Coles went all in on chasing younger customers by adding Sephora beauty counters, expanding its trendy homes goods sections and nixing popular

coupons. But instead of attracting new shoppers, these moves just ended up confusing and frustrating its loyal customer base. But also, Cole's issues are far from unique. across retail. Companies like Macy's, Target, American Eagle, and Dollar General are sounding the alarm about cautious shoppers squeezed by inflation and hesitant to spend. Lower income customers especially are cutting back, prioritizing groceries and rent over discretionary purchases. Neil Coles had a rough one this week, but it's far from the only one running into these issues. Consumer angst is here. The last two weeks have been pretty wild on the retail front. Every single company that reported earnings said that they saw a pullback and

consumer spending because consumers are worried about tariffs. They have, they're still not over inflation. And what was been interesting to hear what you heard from Coles as well is it's not just that really low income consumer pulling back. It's also the more affluent consumers. The CEO of Coles said that those earning $50,000, less than $50,000 a year, but even those earning under $100,000 a year are cutting back with the potential for more pullback in the coming months. So these are some serious warning signs for consumer spending, which drives two-thirds of the American economy. Right. You mentioned the higher end of the market. American consumers in the luxury market are spending a lot less as well. That spending fell 9.3% in February from a year earlier.

That's according to City's analysis of its credit card transactions. Costco, who usually has a customer base that's used towards higher income, have said last week that they've seen a big shift towards lower cost proteins, stuff like ground beef and poultry. So you are seeing it just across the board because we also saw the CEO of Dollar General come out and say, hey, consumers are feeling very squeezed right now. So did Coles. They say lower end is also very squeezed. So you're hearing that word tossed around that we were hearing a few years ago, which

is choiceful. Consumers are becoming choiceful with how they're spending their money once more. So you are right. Coles was our dog week just because it had a really rough week. but it is emblematic of the whole retail sector at this point. Let's end on a high note, shall we? It is Friday after all. One thing that is working for Coles is this partnership with Sephora.

Coles now has 1,000 Sephora shops inside its stores. Those tick in $1.8 billion in revenue last year. Comparable beauty sales increased 13%. So this partnership is clicking, and they want to invest in it further to drive revenue. Let's move on. Formula One is back in Melbourne this weekend, kicking off the season down. under for the first time since the pandemic. At the center of this upcoming season is seven-time world champion, Lewis Hamilton, who

swapped Mercedes Silver for Ferrari Red, marrying the sports most recognizable star with its biggest brand. Will he contend for a record-breaking eighth championship, or will it be more photo shoots than photo finishes? It's a storyline you can only cook up in a Netflix studio, which is pretty much exactly what execs in a Netflix studio we're hoping for. Netflix's drive to survive, transform Formula One into must-season. TV TV, birthing an entire genre of sports center docu-series from golf's full swing to

tennis's breakpoint. And as this new season begins, every max for stop and pull, personal feud and pit stop maneuver will be documented for millions of fans who may never even watch the actual races, which Neil is sort of an issue because races average just 1.1 million weekly viewers in the U.S. and peaked at just under 2 million in 2023. Both those peaks and those averages are well below IndyCar and Wally. way below the numbers NASCAR pulls in. So, Neil, lots of storylines to look out for as drivers enter the grid on Sunday,

from Sir Lewis to Netflix's supposed influence to the fact that maybe F1 isn't as big as you might think. It's lights out, and away they go. Well, this is a merger between the two biggest brands in the sport, and it's kind of exactly what F1 needed after that pandemic bump led to a couple years of stagnation. Ferrari has participated in every single Formula One season, since the series began in 1950.

Lewis Hamilton is a figure who is much larger than a sport, a global fashion icon. He's co-chairing the Met Gala this year. He has just transcended this sport. And so Ferrari's paying him $100 million per year to come over. That includes overall earnings, including sponsors, image rights, bonuses, and salary. That is a ton of money.

It's a huge gamble on this British guy to revitalize Italian racing. I do think that they need it too because there was some media analysis done when, you know, Caitlin Clark was still tearing up college basketball and they were like the three games that Caitlin Clark played to end her collegiate career. They brought in more viewers than the entire Formula One season did over all 24 races in the U.S. So when you're talking about a influence on something like Caitlin Clark is an order of magnitude above what the entire sport of Formula One is. So I do think there was this time where everyone was watching Drive to Survive, probably during the pandemic, and it became this thing where, like, oh, this series just has catapulted this sport into the American mainstream. That's not quite the case.

That being said, the Miami Grand Prix, the Las Vegas Grand Prix, the Austin Grand Prix, these are all events that are very well attended. They are these big business moneymakers in the cities that they descend upon. So it's not like this is some really tiny thing, but it's also probably not as big as you might think. I think gauging the influence of something like Drive to Survive is worth talking about all the copycats that have emerged from it. Tennis has breakpoint. Golf has full swing.

American football has quarterback and receiver. There's been so many of these, you know, Drive to Survive style docu series that have come out in the aftermath of the success of that show. I don't think any of them have achieved nearly the heights of Drive to Survive. and maybe that's because of the particular egos involved in F1 and the characters that this sport has and they're involved in money and politics and business. So it's quite larger than life, just like Lewis Hamilton. But I think in terms of the influence of Drive to Survive, I don't know about the viewership, the impact it has.

But on the particular industry of docky series, it's been a massive influence. Now let's sprint to the finish with some final headlines. A federal judge has ordered President Trump to reinstate thousands of federal workers who were dismissed during his administration flipping the efforts of Doge on its head. In Maryland, a judge ruled that the layoffs violated federal protocols, ordering thousands of dismissed probationary employees to be reinstated temporarily, while a California judge called determinations a, quote, sham, and demanded immediate rehiring across six major agencies, including the Department of Agriculture, Energy, and Defense. Both judges emphasize that while

workforce reductions are legal, they must follow established legal processes. this might make for some awkward return to office moments, Neil. It would. I mean, the administration characterized these terminations as based on poor individual performance, but the problem is that these people who had been fired, these probationary

workers who are very young into their career, that's why they were fired because it's easier to fire them, actually received stellar performance reviews, so they did not square the circle with their firing. So the judge says, you can't put it under the guise of bad performance when we have Dr.

here that says they had good performance. So a blow to Doge's efforts to trim the federal workforce. There have been lawsuits filed all over the country for any number of sort of cost-cutting measures that Doge is undertaken. We're seeing these play out in the courts. Markets may have 99 problems, but a government shutdown ain't one. The head of the Senate Democrats, Chuck Schumer, said he'd vote to advance a Republican measure to keep the government open later today, concerns that Congress would pass a spending bill to prevent the government from shutting down, which it would do absent of a bill at 12.01 a.m. Saturday morning in less than 24 hours. A shutdown would be disruptive to the economy with hundreds of thousands of workers furloughed and many

government services closed. Schumer, after a bitter debate among Democrats about how to confront Trump, decided this issue wasn't worth the fight. Right. And you did see stock futures creep up a little bit this morning. They are green as of the time that we're recording this because, yeah, a government shutdown is just disruptive, whichever way you cut it. There was also rumblings too, though, that not passing the bill is exactly something that Elon and Doge might want because a government shutdown could expedite this goal of downsizing the federal government. So counterintuitively, it looks like it's very likely that this spending bill will pass

with support from across the aisle precisely because, you know, Democrats do not want a government shutdown to aid in Doge's efforts. Finally, in space, the rich keep getting richer. at least when it comes to moons. Saturn, which already has the most moons of any planet in the solar system, was recently discovered to have over 100 more moons orbiting it than previously known. That brings its total up to 274 moons way ahead of second place Jupiter with 95 known moons, and Earth has just a measly one.

These new moons around Saturn aren't big, and they certainly don't have cheese. Most are just small space rocks a few miles across, but if they have trackable orbits around their parent body, then yes, they are considered to be moons. Congrats Saturn on another five-star recruiting class. I'm just going to come out and say it. Astronomers are being way too lenient in their definition of what constitutes a moon. I need more than just rocks that are a few miles across.

I do need some more substantial moons. Maybe it's because our moon is 2,159 miles across. So I don't like that Saturn's picking up all these extra moons in the process when they're not big enough in my mind. But also one thing that I think astronomers are going to run into is, that right now the current, whoever discovers the moons get the chance to name them. They get the rights to name them. But the current naming scheme for Saturn's moons is based on characters from the Norse mythology. So we are now probably so deep in the Asgardian pantheon that they might

have to expand to, I don't know, Greek or something at this point because there's only so many Thor's and Odens out there, you're going to have to find a different pantheon at this point. It made me realize that we don't name our moon. We just call it moon. Yeah, see, because it's big enough. It's not some of these one mile across rocks. I don't know. I'm hitting on Saturn right now. You're doing great Saturn.

Maybe that's because I asked this question in my trivia night on Wednesday, and you said Jupiter instead of Saturn. You won't make that mistake again. All right, let's wrap it up there. Thanks so much for starting your morning with us. Have a wonderful Friday and an even better weekend. For any questions, comments, or feedback, send an email to Morningbrewdaily at morningbrew. We'd love to hear from you.

And if you're enjoying the show, share it with a friend, family member or coworker. Toby, who should everyone listening share it with today? I want you to share the podcast with someone who was really into F1 when Drive to Survive first came out, but has fallen off in recent years because I know there is a lot of you. So I'm going for a big total addressable market here, Neil. Let's roll the credits. Emily Milliron is our executive producer. Raymond Lou is our producer, Olivia Graham, and Olivia Lake are our associate producers. Yucheno Ogu is our technical director. Scoop Stardaris is on audio. Hair and makeup says, says, beware.

the aides of March, which is coming tomorrow. Devin Emery is our chief content officer and our shows of production of Morning Brew. Great show today, Neil. I wish you all well.