Morning Brew Daily - Trump Threatens EU Tariffs Over Greenland & ChatGPT Adds Ads

Episode Date: January 20, 2026

Episode 761: Neal and Toby discuss the trade war brewing over in Europe as Trump indicates he wants Greenland because he was snubbed for the Nobel Peace Prize. Then, OpenAI thinks it can revolutionize the advertising space by playing ads within ChatGPT. Also, a new ‘mini-sphere’ is landing in DC. Meanwhile, Toby dives into the trend of over-stated plots in Netflix content because they’re thinking everyone is watching while on their phones. They’re…not wrong? Finally, a wrap of headlines as we’re recording from Davos!  Explore Indeed’s full findings at https://www.indeed.com/2026hiringtrends Learn more about Lightspeed at https://www.lsvp.com Subscribe to Morning Brew Daily for more of the news you need to start your day. Share the show with a friend, and leave us a review on your favorite podcast app. Listen to Morning Brew Daily Here:⁠ ⁠⁠https://www.swap.fm/l/mbd-note⁠⁠⁠  Watch Morning Brew Daily Here:⁠ ⁠⁠https://www.youtube.com/@MorningBrewDailyShow⁠ This special episode is produced in partnership with Lightspeed Venture Partners. Lightspeed holds the largest early-stage AI portfolio in the world both number of companies and capital deployed, investing in 165 AI companies and deploying over $5.5 billion in AI investments. Lightspeed's invested in some of the most valuable AI companies globally, including Anthropic, Mistral AI, Glean, Reflection AI and more. Learn more about Lightspeed's recent investments in Skild AI here, and stay tuned for more exciting AI coverage on the show this week: https://www.skild.ai/blogs/series-c Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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pwc.com slash U.S. slash brew AI. That's PwC.com slash us slash brew AI. Good morning brew daily show. I'm Neil Freyman. And I'm Toby Howell. Today, markets are reeling after Trump starts a trade war over Greenland.

Then, after saying they wouldn't, Chachabit is adding ads. It's Tuesday, January 20th. Let's ride. Greetings from the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, where the Morning Brew Daily team is recording podcasts and interviews and social media content all week. It's only been 48 hours on the ground. And as we're

about to get into, there are a lot of world economic issues swirling that are going to be hashed out here. What are my impressions as a first time Swiss Alps visitor? Thanks for asking. The mountains are indeed stunning. I need to get on cross-country skis ASAP. And the Swiss hot dog game is on point. Toby, what are your observations from Davos so far? Yeah, I had a totally incorrect impression of what Davos is when I heard conference, I thought one big building, convention space, everyone meets kind of at a central location, not the case whatsoever. The whole conference is sort of distributed throughout downtown where brands and even countries take over retail locations as their homes for a week. And some of these houses are wild. USA House is in this big old church on the

corner. It's rather ominous looking Palantir's House looks like a Malibu sushi restaurant. Light Speedhouse where we're recording from is kind of this retro futuristic space. That sandwich between the South African delegation and an Italian restaurant. So it's all got this sort of chaos energy running beneath the service that you get when you cram so many businesses and nations together into a tiny Swiss mountain town. And we're recording right in the middle of it, which is pretty cool. But first, a word from our sponsor, indeed. Neil, I'm in the mood for fondue. Well, what's the occasion?

Not that I need a reason to drink melted cheese, but it's because we're here at the World Economic Forum in Davos this week. And you know what else is mouthwatering. Indeed is here too sharing real-time insight into the global labor market and how leaders can navigate the workforce challenges and opportunities ahead. They're also helping business leaders and hiring professionals dive into these perspectives through their global labor market and workforce trends report. These insights include where job opportunities are growing, where skill shortages and mismatches could impact business performance, how immigration patterns are shaping workforce capacity, and how AI is transforming jobs, skills, and employer adoption. Together, these insights help leaders prepare for what's next and make better workforce decisions grounded in real-time data.

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Learn more at Windows.com slash student offer. While supplies last, ends June 30th, terms at AKA.m.m.S. College PC. You go away for a three-day weekend and what do you come back to? A potential fully blown trade war, not to mention diplomatic crisis, between the U.S. and Europe over who controls Greenland. On Saturday, President Trump dropped an economic and geopolitical bomb, threatening to hit eight European allies with a 10% tariff by February 1st, rising to 25% in June, should there not be a deal for, quote, the purchase of Greenland from Denmark. With the tariff threat, Trump singled out eight countries, Denmark, Norway, Sweden, France, Germany, the UK, the Netherlands, and Finland,

who were rallying in defense of the territory. But there's more. Yesterday, Norway's prime minister revealed that Trump said his pursuit of Greenland was tied in part to not receiving the Nobel Peace Prize, which is awarded by a committee in Norway. Whereas Europe played nice with Trump last year around Liberation Day tariffs, they are drawing the red line now, warning that tariff threats, quote, undermine transatlantic relations and risk a dangerous downward spiral. The EU is redding tariffs on over $100 billion worth of U.S. goods if Trump follows through. And some outrage leaders have even floated the so-called bazooka option known as the anti-coer. instrument, which could limit European market access for tech giants like Google.

At the very least, Europe is now set to block a U.S. trade deal that had been reached last year, one that reduces tariffs on American goods to zero. Markets are violently throwing up right now. Yeah, they are not happy this morning because this is really the first time investors are able to fully react to these tariffs because they were closed for Martin Luther King Day holiday on Monday. We are also seeing that flight to safety that we've talked about, really over the past few months where gold and silver are once again ripping because they are

past previous records because investors are fleeing towards these assets that feel a little bit safer right now. The reason why the markets are getting the hebi-jeebies again is because the economies of the U.S. and Europe are very intertwined to say the least. The European Union is the U.S.'s biggest trading partner. Europe is the largest source of foreign direct investment in the U.S. as well, $3.6 trillion invested into the U.S. So these are two economies that do give global traders a little bit of the fits when we hear that they might be beefing. Yeah, look at the companies that were declining yesterday and today, Volkswagen, BMW, Mercedes-Benz, Ferrari, Porsche, big European automakers that sell a lot in the United States. And then you also

have luxury companies from France, LVMH and Caring are down. And then a lot of pharma companies as well, Novo Nordisk and here in Switzerland, their Roche company. I mean, they sell a lot to the United States. So all of those stocks are down today and they were yesterday in European trading. Let's talk about Europe's options for retaliating because that's what's happening this week. All of Europe's leaders are getting together and saying, how do we respond? Some are some want more measured response to the United States should these tariffs come to pass. Some want to go full the nuclear options. So let's just talk about the first one. The first immediate reaction that Europe has is they want to halt the trade deal that was agreed to with the United

States last July. What that trade deal was, was that the EU agreed to remove basically all tariffs on American products. And in exchange, the EU basically accepted a 15% tariff on most of its exports to the U.S. and 50% on steel and aluminum. They're pretty happy to scrap this deal because this was seen as one that the U.S. kind of got one over on them. So it doesn't take a lot for them to say this trade deal is going to be off, but they have other options on the table as well. Yeah, there is a very spicy, if unlikely option that Europe has up their sleeve. As I mentioned, because European countries hold literally trillions of dollars of U.S. bonds and stocks, Europe countries hold 40% of foreign U.S. treasuries.

What they could do is say, hey, we're going to start selling some of these assets in response to what you're doing to us in response to this tariff war, which could drive borrowing costs up and equities down because some of these balances are held by, you know, European government. So they could hypothetically pull that lever. Will this happen? Probably not because that is, as you mentioned, probably a nuclear option because it is a weaponization of capital. And we won't necessarily see that because it hurts European businesses as well. But that is another option they have up their sleeve.

And as more tariffs are being threatened on other countries in the world, there's new research showing, you know, who does pay for these tariffs? And this analysis found that overwhelmingly American importers and consumers are paying for the tariffs. German-based Keel Institute, they just released this report. They analyzed $4 trillion worth of shipments between January 2024 and November 2025. They found that foreign exporters absorbed about 4% of the burden of last year's tariff increases compared to American consumers and importers who absorbed 96%. We're going to see if these tariffs actually come to pass right here in Davos, Trump said that. that he is organizing a meeting between NATO and other European leaders to see if they can work out something.

But it seems he's very adamant on Greenland. And we'll see what happens. But there's going to be a very, very high stakes meeting here in a couple days. And we're right in the middle of it. Moving on, there's a saying in business that on a long enough timeline, every company sells ads. Open AI has finally reached their ad era, announcing that it will begin testing ads in the previously pristine waters of ChatGPT. The ads will appear above or below answers, not embedded within any responses, and only for users on the free or lowest cost plans. Open AI also pinky promises they will be clearly labeled in tinted boxes so you'll know what is what. Still, it's undeniable that Sam Altman and Co are seeing a very different tune

than they have in the past. I kind of hate ads just as an aesthetic choice, Altman said last year. Ads plus AI is sort of uniquely unsettling to me, he said back in 2024. And yet, here we are. Open AI's official position is that ads do not influence responses and that the model's output will remain objectively useful. But it begs the question, if Altman hated ads, why is he embracing them now? And of course, it comes down to money, money, money. According to recent reports, annualized revenue at Open AI exceeded $20 billion a year. But in case you forgot, Open AI has raised roughly a billion dollars. So bringing in that ad revenue will help Open AI put its big boy monetization pants on.

Neil now begins the delicate tight wire walk. Nearly every internet company has had to walk at one point or another between making money and not pissing off their users. Well, imagine if I told you there was a switch and if you flicked it on, you'd make a billion dollars instantly and maybe keep your business afloat. Are you going to turn it on? I'm pressing the switch. Absolutely. Like it would be business malpractice not to. Open AI needs to get to $200 billion in annual revenue in order to. to turn a profit in 2030. Right now, it's making 20. So it needs to increase its revenue 10thold so it can stay as a business in case it, because it's just keep raising more and more money to stay alive. So Sam Altman, he called previously, he called ads a last resort. Well, looks like we're at the last resort. And these are going to be ads that hopefully feel native to the experience. Ads are going to be matched with the current conversation topic. So,

for instance, Neil and I are saying, what should I wear to Davos? An ad will not just come up for McDonald's. It will come up for, hey, here's some nice slacks, or here's something that, a sweater that brings out the color in your eyes. It's basically going to be contextual and they promise not to sell user data, anything like that. And there is some interesting things you can do with a chatbot environment when it comes to ads. You can ask follow-up questions to the ads.

Like, say, hey, I actually don't like this color. It doesn't bring out the blue in my eyes. I'd rather a different color sweater. and you can kind of go through the same conversational output that you normally would with the normal chatbot. So in terms of the ad landscape currently on the internet, it does represent an interesting step in a different direction. It's worth going back to the first thing you said that over a long enough timeline, every company starts to sell ads. And it's so true. I mean, Netflix, just a few years ago said, we're never going to do ads. We're never going to put

commercials in Netflix. And now there's a tier that costs $6 a month that has ads. Uber has an ads business now that's now worth over $1 billion. Walmart sells ads. It does $4.4 billion a year in revenue. They look at Google and meta, which bring in nearly $100 billion in ads a year and use that to subsidize so much of their other business that they say we truly cannot, you know, this is too much of a lucrative opportunity not to get into ads. Still, the word that comes to mind is one that we've talked about on this podcast, which is in shitification, which is when social media platforms essentially become worse over time. They stop valuing their users trust and their experience. This could be that slippery slope towards people losing trust

in their chatbots, which is a huge proponent of people using chat chabotis. They feel like it's the safe space that they can, you know, talk about their health problems, talk about relationship issues. Now once ads start to intrude, it's a slippery slope there. I know, but then you go to, then you go to Gemini and there's going to be ads there too. So every, I think every chat bot at some point is going, well, most of them will get ads in the future. But yeah, it's, if you use free version of chat, Chabit, and you love free Chachybt, then you're probably going to start seeing ads sometime soon. Washington, D.C. has a Pentagon, an obelisk, and soon it could be getting a sphere. Sphere Entertainment, the company behind the futuristic domed event center in Las Vegas,

announced plans to build another one in National Harbor, Maryland, just outside the nation's capital. Except this won't be a normal sphere. It's going to be a mini-me sphere, containing about 6,000 seats, roughly one-third of the original in Vegas. That does. doesn't mean it'll come cheap. Building the Maryland sphere is still expected to cost more than $1 billion, but to defray the cost, the project includes $200 million in financing help from Maryland governments and private sources. For Sphere, National Harbor marks progress in its bumpy quest for world's spherical domination, plopping immersive entertainment orbs in cities all over the globe. A second sphere is already being planned for Abu Dhabi,

but projects in London and South Korea have faced setbacks. For National Harbor and D.C., local politicians are hailing it as a big tourism win for an area whose economy has been hit hard by federal workforce layoffs. Apparently, their minds were made up after Governor West Morissaw, Kenny Chesney rehearsed at the sphere in Vegas, and a county executive took in a Zach Brown show. Tell me, I might just have a reason to go back to my old stomping grounds. I think it's so funny to characterize this as a mini sphere because it is smaller than the one of Vegas, but it's still costing a billion dollars to build. So don't get it twisted. This thing is still a very big economic project. My big question is, can this work not in Vegas? Because Vegas is a tourism

destination. It makes sense for residences to take up place in Vegas because you get a new crowd every single night because there are constantly tourists flowing in and out of Las Vegas. That's kind of its main appeal. That is not true for Washington, D.C. Are you going to be able to have convince an artist to come down and stay there for a few months or something? Like, is you too going to do a residency in D.C. Does it have the tourism to support that sort of residency? That's the big question mark I have. Your anti-turp bias is showing.

You clearly haven't been to National Harbor. Well, yeah, okay, National Harbor for people who don't know is basically this, yeah, it's like a mini Vegas, a little south of D.C. On the Potomac, there's an MGM casino that they kind of just built a city. There's an MGM casino. They're restaurants. There's a huge Ferris wheel. And they do think that they can bring huge acts like you too or Zach Brown or

Kenny Chesney there, and D.C. is a big tourism city. But the thing is, it's going to be a little outside D.C. and P.G. County, Prince George's County, where the, if you haven't noticed, I've made a lot of Maryland references. I went to the University of Maryland, which is in Prince George's County. That's suffered a lot of setbacks recently. There was going to be a huge FBI headquarters that was going to be located there. Now it's not. They lost the commanders, which are going back to Washington, D.C. So they really have National Harbor to hang their hat on. So to a T, every local politician, there is saying, this is so great. And it's so interesting to contrast that with other places around the country like New York City or even the world like London that have pushed back against the

sphere. It's really bright. You know, if you are located, if you live next to the sphere, it's probably a huge negative externality. Like, you probably can't sleep. But National Harbors away from most residential areas that they think that this is going to be a big local economic development win, that they're willing to put forth $185 million in tax incentives to get it there. Meanwhile, the sphere is doing very well. The sphere stock, Speer Entertainment Co, it's up 134% over the last year. It's profitable now in Las Vegas, which looked a little dicey for a while, but it made $150 million in net income in the last, in the quarter that ended June 30th. So this is a money-making machine.

Now they have a mini-money-making machine in Maryland. Yeah, the Wizard of Oz has been doing really well. Remember, they did this, judged up Wizard of Oz. That's apparently generating $2 million. a day, and they're hoping that it can drive the number, the share of people that go to Las Vegas to the sphere over 10% currently. 7% of everybody who visits Las Vegas goes to the sphere, and they're hoping to just raise that percentage.

All right we're going to take a quick break and come back with Toby's trends right after this. Time for our Morning Brew Daily Davos update with Lightspeed. We are joined by Lightspeed co-founder and partner Ravi Matra. Ravi, we are recording this pod this week in the Lighthouse by Lightspeed. what does it like to create a space like this for your founders? We were really excited to build something that thematically plays on name of our firm Lightspeed, but it's really inviting. We have some iconic representations of all of the companies or many of the companies

we've backed recently where the founders had pretty transformational ideas, and we've tried to create a space where we had something representative of what was transformational about their idea along with the name of the company. so we've bedecked the space with those examples. And it's a little bit of a retro feel just to make it feel a little, you know, uncorporate and a little undavos and a little, you know, a little bit irreverent. But we like it. We think it's a space that engenders excitement and enthusiasm about how we can be irreverent

and creative about the future. Well, we love it and are so thankful to be here. And I think we look and sound pretty good, too. That we do. And be sure to head to our YouTube channel for special interviews with Lightspeed Founders all week. We just posted one with the co-founder and CEO of Skilled AI, Deepak Partak, where we chatted about robot brains and AI. Keep an eye out, as we will be posting more throughout this World Economic Forum. It's time to refresh your yard during spring backyard days at the Home Depot. Get low prices

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When you want savings, not surprises. It matters where you stay. Hilton, for this day. All right, Neil, one time I was preparing to give a speech back in high school and my English teacher gave me this advice. Tell them what you're going to say, say it, and then tell them what you said. Unfortunately, it seems like Netflix also got that same advice and is bringing that repetitive energy to its own content. And it's something I want to talk about on today's edition of Toby's trends. Matt Damon has a new movie out on Netflix right now called The Rip. And as part of his promo tour, he went on Joe Rogan's podcast to talk about the state

of entertainment today. And one soundbite that is going viral, he acknowledges the fact that more people are watching movies at home these days. And those home viewings usually involve a lot more distractions than a movie theater. Kids running around, lights on pots boiling. And downstream of that distraction. action-filled environment are shifts in the movie-making business. Big action sequences that used to hit in the third act have been dragged to the first five

minutes to try and wrangle people's attention. But the biggest change is that Netflix is encouraging verbal repetition of plot details. According to Damon, filmmakers now get explicit guidance that it wouldn't be terrible if you reiterated the plot three or four times in the dialogue. Once you realize Netflix is doing this, you can't unhear it. So Neil, at this set in Davos where we are recording a podcast episode. Do you want to open your mouth and respond to me about this narrative phenomenon? I would love to. Okay, quick defense of Netflix.

Stating the plot of the movie is not necessarily new. We were watching a Mission Impossible last night, and we were absolutely cracking up at the amount of exposition that they were talking about. But I think Damon is hitting on something here that people who are watching the last season of Stranger Things noticed a ton, which is that these characters were reiterating the plot and saying what. happened and what they were about to do literally every five minutes, every single episode, they took out props and just essentially explained, you know, the plot of stranger things.

And this is apparently, according to Damon, coming from on high at Netflix and shows how, yeah, movie watching, TV consumption is changing. We're not in the theater anymore where we're essentially captives to a big screen. We're in our houses with a million different distractions. And Netflix is armed with more data than we know of. So they know exactly how people are consuming their content. they're turning it on, when they're turning it off. So, you know, maybe they know something that we don't. Not maybe. They definitely know something that we don't. Yeah, you can roll your eyes and blame Netflix for putting out what you

might describe as slop, but actually look inwards and blame yourself because they do know that you are watching from with your phone in front of your face. And I feel like everyone has experienced this where you want to show a movie to one of your friends and you look over and they have their, it's the worst thing in the world. But so Netflix has said it is a lot of second screen viewing is kind of like the technical term for it. You have your first screen in front of you, but in the background, you need to know what's actually going on. Like, how are they going to kill this demigorgon? So you're kind of hearing that subconsciously. And that is why they're doing this kind of annoying Netflix speak, as some people have been branding it.

And it's also a little ironic, too, because Matt Damon is biting the hand that feeds him in this case. But he's also sort of setting the groundwork for another movie that he has coming out, which is the Odyssey, which is probably the furthest thing away from a Netflix movie you can have. It's from Christopher Nolan. It's shot entirely on IMAX cameras. It's meant to be viewed in theaters. It's probably going to gross a billion dollars. And some people were making jokes at it. Wouldn't it be funny if they did Netflix speak in The Odyssey

to explain why do all these characters' names sound the same? Like, what is actually going on the plot right now? So it's very funny to juxtapos, Damon's Netflix tilt with his upcoming Christopher Nolan Odyssey movie. Okay, let's sprint to the finish with some final headlines. China continues to shrink and there's no let up in sight. New government figures show that the country had more deaths than births in 2025 for the fourth year in a row, while its birth rate fell to a record low. The government, which for decades instituted a one-child policy to curb population growth, is pulling out all the stops to reverse what it considers an existential crisis.

They're paying cash to couples and subsidizing housing. They've tried to introduce a, quote, child-bearing culture, and they even place a 13% tax on condoms. None of it seems to be enticing people to have kids, and this population crisis is happening all over the world. Yeah, a pen economist added some perspective to these numbers. One of the headline kind of positions that he said is that to put this into perspective differently, there were fewer bursts in China in 2025 than in 1776. So it just shows how different the demographics are right now.

Also, if China could somehow sustain the 7.9 million bursts per year from now on, which is a big if because, again, this birth rate is declining. Their population would level out at around 625 million people. Again, that is the upper bound under the most rosy assumptions possible. Right now, there's over 1.4 billion people there. So this is something that it accelerates negatively very quickly. It's not something you can easily turn around. So even though right now it doesn't seem that big of a deal

because you're only losing a few million every year, eventually over generations that does settle at, at literally less than half of their current population. Moving on, if you thought you had a good year in the stock market, you probably didn't do as well as Chris Hohn. That's because Hone and his hedge fund TCI just had the best trading year literally ever. No other hedge fund has surpassed the $18.9 billion it brought in in 2025ing the previous record set by Ken Griffin Citadel back in 2022.

What was the magic strategy that led to such insane overperformance? The firm just picked really good stocks. TCI operates a very concentrated fund with $52 billion in assets spread across just nine holdings. It's top position that generated such outsized returns, wasn't even an AI stock. It was General Electric, which gained 86% alone. Neil, $18.9 billion makes your brokerage account seem a little bit light. It is quite light compared to that. But Toby, I will say if someone handed you, you know, $90 billion to play with, I think. think you could match these returns because apparently it was just a very easy year for hedge funds

last year. Rick Sofer is the senior advisor at Edmund de Ross Child, which is the firm that oversees these rankings, said everything worked for hedge funds last year. Equities worked, macro work. The pods found ways of making money. It was pretty straightforward. I mean, make sure you remember that when you look at your own performance because a lot of people I know are saying, God, I am a genius these days. It really was a great year for, I mean, SP 500 gains 16%. You don't make... Making money is pretty straightforward.

You don't make $19 billion by accident, but it was one of the easier years to do that. All right, last night, Indiana University's football team capped off one of the most improbable runs in sports history. Just a few years ago, the worst team in college football, a school that has racked up more losses than any other in the sport.

Indiana defeated Miami to win the national championship, turning coach Kurt Signetti and quarterback Fernando Mendoza into immortal legends in Bloomington. Perhaps the writing was on the wall Signetti's introductory press conference in 2024, responding to a reporter who asked him how he'll get top recruits to come to Indiana. Signetti replied, it's pretty simple. I win. Google me. Just two years later, no one needs to anymore. I mean, these facts are so fun to reiterate now. Indiana had the

worst winning percentage of any major conference team at 43%. They were the first Division I college program to ever lose 700 games. Since then, they've compiled a 27-2 record. They were the first team to win to go 16 and 0 since Yale back in 1894. Signetti just wins. And he was absolutely right. And I also have to say back, if you go back to the podcast two years ago, I was without a college football team because I don't really, I went to Brown.

We don't really have a great college football team. And I did pick Indiana back then. So I don't know if I had as much to do with your success as Cignetti did, but I had something to do with the success. All right. You need to get on the turf span wagon because clearly there's some magic sauce there. Where would you rank this in terms of Cinderella stories and sports history? I mean, some of the other top ones are Leicester City's Premier League win.

In 2016, there was something like 10,000 to one underdogs. And you have Miracle on Ice in 1980. You obviously were not around for that. I do think Signetti would have this response to say, it's not a miracle at all. Like we absolutely put in the process and created the culture to make this happen. So it's not an accident. So I'm being kind of Signetti's parrot here.

saying we manifested all of this. None of this came by accident. Okay, that is all the time we have. Thanks for starting your morning with us and have a wonderful Tuesday. If you want to get in touch, send an email to Morning Brew Daily at MorningBrew.com or DM us on Instagram

at MB Daily Show. Let's roll the credits. Emily Milliron is our executive producer. Raymond Lou is our producer. Our associate producers are Olivia Graham and Olivia Lake. Hair and makeup is proud of us looking all dapper today.

Devin Emery is our president and our show is a production of Morning Brew. Great show today, Neil. Let's run it back tomorrow. Spring is the season everyone refreshes everything except their blinds. People put it off because they think it's complicated. But at blinds.com, we've spent 30 years proving it's not. Right now, you can save big during the Spring Cyber Monday sale.

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