Morning Brew Daily - US Gov't Comes for AI & $18 For A Big Mac?

Episode Date: October 31, 2023

Episode 181: Neal and Toby recap the first-of-its-kind Executive Order by President Biden to create safeguards on AI. Then, McDonald's may have jacked up its prices but their recent earnings show customers are still lovin' it. And, the auto industry is back on the road with the latest deal between automakers and the UAW. Next, recent numbers may show that "pandemic-era" trends are drifting back into pre-pandemic life. Lastly, would you buy a haunted house if it had everything you were looking for? The latest study from Zillow might surprise you. Listen to Morning Brew Daily Here: https://link.chtbl.com/MBD Watch Morning Brew Daily Here: https://www.youtube.com/@MorningBrewDailyShow Listen to The Money with Katie Show Here: https://link.chtbl.com/mwk Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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Good morning, Brew Daily Show. I'm Neil Fryman. And I'm Toby Howell. On today's pod, why McDonald's is charging $18 for a Big Mac meal and loving every minute of it. Then would you buy a haunted house if given the chance? We'll dig into how Americans answer that question in just a bit. It's Tuesday, October 31st. Ooh!

Let's ride. Neil, this is a podcast, but I feel obligated to let the people know that we are in fact dressed up for Halloween. I am wearing a bull costume from head to toe. It's a onesie actually, and you are... I'm a very sweaty bear. Which makes us... Bullish and bearish. I think we crushed it.

Very finance focus, yes. Thanks to our team for securing these costumes. Mine's very comfortable. And it's very hot in here, so let's see if we make it through the end of the show. Also, remember, we're still doing the brew costume contest, so tag us in your Instagram story or on Twitter at MB Daily Show or send us an email of your costume for a chance to win a morning brew daily mug.

We've also seen a couple of you dress up as Neil and Toby. which is the most epic thing ever, so keep that up. Remember, if you dress up as us, you get a mug automatically, so if you're still looking for a fit, try us on for size. Before we jump into the show, we have a quick word from our sponsor, Yahoo Finance. Neil, it's finally here, our last Yahoo Finance ad. We've had lots of good memories from calling it Yahoo! To telling people to dress up as it for Halloween,

but all good things must come to an end. I can't believe it. The only thing more important than telling people about the number one finance destination on the internet, trusted by over 150 million visitors globally, is the friends we made along the way. So we bid you adieu Yahoo Finance, but know that your breaking news updates and real-time market data will always hold a special place in our hearts. Neil, take us home. All right, one final time, at least for this year, check out finance.com today or download the Yahoo Finance mobile app to get it directly on your phone.

I know I said it so sadly, but I am enthusiastic about it. Study and play. Come together on a Windows 11 PC. And for a limited time, college students get the best of both worlds. Get the Unreal College deal, everything you need, to study and play with select Windows 11 PCs. Eligible students get a year of Microsoft 365 premium and a year of Xbox GamePass Ultimate

with a custom color Xbox wireless controller. Learn more at Windows.com slash student offer. While supplies last, June 30th, terms at AKA.m.m.S. College PC. Okay, let's head to our first story. As expected, President Biden signed a sweeping executive order about AI yesterday in what the White House called the biggest effort yet around the globe to establish guardrails on this technology that has taken the world by storm in just the last year. The executive order shows that Biden is taking AI very seriously.

He called it the most consequential technology of our time and emphasizes that AI can be used for incredible good or incredible evil, but to make sure it doesn't veer into the evil side, we need to create some rules around it. So what are those rules? At a high level, the order directs a bunch of government agencies to write up guidelines, create reports, and begin research on AI. So not that sexy, but as anyone who's worked at a big organization knows, you've got to have some documentation down so everyone's on the same page.

An executive order like this one is limited in its scope. It can be revoked by a future president, challenged in court, and generally, lacks the enforcement teeth of a law put in place by Congress. Many of the demands made on companies here are voluntary. But as Congress is still working through its own regulations, Biden wants to send a bat signal to the world that the U.S. government is paying attention to AI very closely and is fully aware of the promise and perils of a technology that could be as disruptive as the internet.

What's it out to you, Toby? Well, first of all, the order invokes the Defense Production Act, which is this 1950s law that was leveraged a bunch of times in last few years, including 18 times. during the COVID pandemic by the Trump administration. And it requires that companies share safety testing results with the government and also speeds up development of certain technologies and regulations. And in terms of those regulations, there are multiple different parts of the government getting involved here. The National Institute of Standards and Technology will set benchmarks for safety testing,

which then the Department of Homeland Security and the Energy Department will then use to evaluate risks to national security and infrastructure. Department of Commerce will issue directions for watermarking AI. made content, which is going to be huge for knowing what's a deep fake and what's not. Then also the Department of Labor will get involved to mitigate the effects of AI on jobs. And finally, Department of Justice will get extra training in tech assistance to investigate cases of AI algorithmic bias. So you can see how widespread is. Very much a hot pod.

And it talks to about the wide variety of stakeholders here for AI. It's not just these AI, huge AI companies like Microsoft, OpenAI, alphabet, you know, all those other ones. It's about getting stakeholders from labor, from the Justice Department, from the housing market. One of the big thrust of this plan is to limit algorithmic bias in terms of fair lending practices for the housing market. So you just see, it seems like a lot of different people wrote this thing, and I think that is actually the case. Yeah, and remember, the government is using its role as this huge technology customer to kind of influence the private sector by saying, like, hey, here's how we're going to judge

new AI tools that we're considering using, because the AI, I mean, the government buys a lot of technology so they can kind of influence how people are regulating it and whatnot. So I think that's the big thing. They're exerting their influence as a buyer there. At a high level here, it seems like the government wants to make up for past mistakes in terms of how it regulated social media, and by that I mean how it didn't regulate social media. It feels like it let the social networks kind of run right by it and are now being accused of all of these harms of perpetuating mental health, of perpetuating disinformation, and they want to get ahead of the AI wave so they don't make the same mistakes as they did with social media. Yeah, one of the final things that

stood out to me on this was that they're definitely trying to beef up its own AI workforce. And so, beginning on Monday, you can go to AI.gov to see which openings are there. AI.com, all I thought about was like, that is one of the most valuable. domain names out there. They got the AI.gov. I guess when the U.S. government, you can get whatever domain you please. But, yeah, that one sit out with it. And there is a global race to regulate AI.

China has AI regulations. And then later in the week, the UK is hosting the first ever global summit on AI. Kamala Harris, the VP is going to be there. And the UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak is hosting a X-Spases, X audio. I don't know what they call it now that's not Twitter anymore, with Elon Musk that he hyped up in a major hype video. I think governments and countries want to be the first to regulate AI because they want to foster this industry that is going to create trillions of dollars. And by establishing the first rules of the road, companies know how they have to operate. And the U.S. wants to do that first because we, you know, I'm not even bragging, but we do have the biggest technology companies in the world on the West Coast.

And so if we can create regulations and rules of the road around it, then companies will invest here, create jobs, and build AI. Absolutely. Okay. Now for some other headlines we want to get into. Up first, McDonald's reported earnings yesterday, and boy, were they delicious. Revenue was up 14% the latest quarter due to a surge that the chain said was driven by strategic menu price increases. Remember, inflation has been taking a bite out of restaurant chains profits, which have subsequently been passed onto the consumer. So while we don't know exactly how much or in which regions McDonald's has jacked up prices, we do have some anecdotal evidence that things are getting. ridiculous. One branch in Connecticut charged $18 for a medium Big Mac combo meal, truly outrageous and even more expensive than McDonald's in Times Square, which will only set you back 1369 for the same combo. In total, the CFO of McDonald's expects the company to increase the cost of its menu items by just over 10% for the full year,

which is the second consecutive annual 10% price hike. Neil, it's tough out here for someone who just wants a Big Mac without dropping stats. Shout out Dary in Connecticut. People know what I'm talking about for that $18 Big Mac deal. McDonald's did reveal some interesting date on who was increasing their visits and who was decreasing their visits. People who made less than $45,000 annually decreased their visits to McDonald's as inflation and other things took a bite. Meanwhile, the people who were making over $100,000 increased their visits to McDonald's as you see a lot of trading down. going on, which is economic speak for saying, okay, I'm going to eat a meal out, but instead of going

to Capitol Grill, I'm going to McDonald's for those kind of people. So it all leads to this fact that McDonald's is very poised to do well when times are getting tough and people start trading down their meals. The funniest part to me of this price hike over the recent months is the McDonald's app in New York City, where the one, two, and three dollar menu doesn't actually have anything worth one, two, or three dollars on it, or one or two dollars on it. So it is just ironic that the cheapest thing you can get at McDonald's right now is a small fries for like 239 or something. And I think there's going to be, there's starting to be a backlash to this. There was a Reddit thread where someone posted, what is no longer worth it because of how

expensive it's become? And the top rated response was most fast food. And so 1849 for a big back. I know that's a singular location, or Big Mac meal, but you can go out to a Chili's or an Applebee's or another chain restaurant and get, you know, a bigger meal that's probably a little more healthy for the same exact price. So the value perception that McDonald's touts it has is kind of going by the wayside at this point as it continues to hike prices. So it definitely is going to be wary of that. They know that, you know, they're looking at all the data. Okay, we have to move on. It lasted six weeks. There was a lot of name calling. Billions of dollars were lost, but the historic auto strike appears to be completely over. The last holdout GM agreed to

a tentative deal with the United Auto Workers yesterday that mirrors the 25% wage bump recently agreed to by the other two Detroit automakers, Ford and Stalantis. So now that this is over, pending ratification by the union members themselves, what have we learned? Well, it's definitely a big win for the union. They secured more wage increases in four years than workers got in the past 22. By the end of the contract, unionized workers will make in the mid-80,000 dollars annually before overtime.

For automakers, they're going to have to open up Excel and figure out how to do deal with much higher labor costs than they just locked themselves into. Ford's CFO, John Lawler, said, we have work to do, we have to identify efficiencies, we have to increase productivity. And just to zoom out, the end of the auto worker's strike caps off a frenzied summer of labor organizing that saw workers snag huge gains from Hollywood writers to UPS drivers to commercial airline pilots. Yeah, it's been a big win summer, honestly. We talked about the big strike summer, but it's turned out very well for the unions. This new contract will end up.

costing GM $7 billion over four and a half years in higher labor costs, and that's just GM. So you mentioned Ford saying we've got to find new efficiencies because right now those costs are just going to be passed onto the consumer until these automakers can figure out how to cut costs and figure out how to become more efficient. So again, it is a win for the union, but now the automakers have to take a step back and say, how are we going to deal with this new? And they paused a bunch of a billion-dollar EV projects because of higher labor costs and things that were coming down the pipeline.

Their stocks are kind of in the dump. So after they do it, they did have a string of record profits, but now there might be some cost cutting going on. Meanwhile, the UAW is hunting for more. You know, there's three Detroit automakers that are unionized now. And Sean Fane says, when we return to the bargaining table in 2028, it won't just be the big three, but the big five or the big six. And he's talking about Tesla, Mercedes, and other automakers that are operating in the U.S.

but aren't unionized. Moving on, Apple hosted an uncharacteristically late event last night, kicking off at 8 p.m. Eastern, and while it was bad for my sleep schedule, it was great for the people who like faster MacBooks. The start of the show were the new M3 chips that Apple makes in-house. Apple says they are the first personal computer chips made using the more efficient 3-nometer process, which helps Bruce transistor density and therefore performance. The M-3 chips makes the new IMac revealed two times faster than its M1 predecessor, as well as gives a boost to the new MacBook Pros, which also came in Matt Black for the first time. They are also ditching the touchbar for good on all entry-level MacBooks, which, thank goodness for that, because that thing stinks. No offense, Neil, I'm looking over it. I'm looking at my touchbar now.

It doesn't have a lot of use. It's gone forever. Overall, it was an event that turned up the spooky vibes in terms of presentation, but nothing truly otherworldly on the product side of things. No, it just seems that Apple wants to really capitalize on. this resurgence in the computer market because in 2021 and 2021, there was a huge boom as people worked from home and upgraded their computers. That went completely bust in 2023 as shipments completely dried up and now it looks like there's going to be another upswing. Max sales are

forecast to climb about 5% in the holiday quarter and overall PC shipments are expected to climb nearly 4% in 2024 and Apple wants as much of a market share in that as it can. Yeah, one of the other things that stood out to me was right at the end of the presentation, they had a slide that popped up that said shot on iPhone. So, you know, that's Apple's big thing. They apparently filmed the entire event on iPhone, which a lot of people were asking questions because there were some pretty fancy kind of CGI and stuff. So, like, how much was actually filmed?

The most souped-up iPhone you could possibly find. Right, right. But, yeah, that was a flex at the end. All right, finally, this news is for all our European listeners, good afternoon, and anyone who's interested in social media business models, Meadow will allow users in the EU to opt out of seeing ads and instead pay for an ad-free subscription to Facebook and Instagram. The plan costs 10 euros on the web and 13 euros on mobile.

This isn't exactly Zuck taking a page out of Elon's book at Twitter. It's intended to comply with European rules over ad targeting and data collection. Meta thinks it will better meet regulatory requirements if it gives European users the choice of paying for the service to remove ad targeting or knowingly opting in and consenting to its data collection practices. Meta says this isn't changing its overall business philosophy, which is to use its reams of user data to sell tens of billions worth of ads. It's just to give it some cover with EU regulators, something we've seen a bunch of other U.S. tech companies do before. Yeah, the EU is after tech right now for sure. And so, yeah, Meta thinks that choice option helps

it satisfy those regulations. But remember, Meta decided not to launch the threads, which is its Twitter rival in the EU because they didn't know if they could adhere to the new digital market. attack. So again, it's like this big thorn in the side is the EU keeps coming after these big tech companies. And that's why the new iPhone's going to have a USBC. Sometimes it ends up, good for us. All right, Neil, before we jump into the next half of our show, we're going to take a quick break. It's time to refresh your yard during spring backyard days at the Home Depot. Get low prices guaranteed on propane grills starting at $179, like the next grill three burner gas grill, or get $50 off a select Weber Spirit grill and bring big flavor to your

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It's Tuesday, which means we're back with another edition of Toby's trends where I, a Gen Zer, dressed in a bull onesie, educate you, a grizzled millennial dressed in a bear suit on a recent trend I've had my eye on. In today's trend is the rise of upscale indoor golf clubs. A lot of people describe golf as a good walk spoiled, but recently there's been a plethora of high-end indoor facilities that take the walking part right out of it. These places combined all the traditional fixings of an actual golf club like a locker room, fine dining, a head pro, and even steam rooms. But instead of a course, there's indoor golf simulators. Now, why are these golf clubs having a moment? For one, the at-home golf simulator market exploded during the pandemic with some sellers reporting a 500% sales spike in 2020 and 2021. So people are becoming a lot more familiar with the technology.

But also, there's an element of social mobility to some of these. just like real clubs. In-town golf club is a private golf and social club that compares itself to Soho House that combines golf with that highly exclusive feel and gives members the chance to rub elbows with other socially upward-minded people. Neil, more and more of these are popping up, and I am all here for it. Of course, you are, because you're the, I mean, frankly, both of us are kind of the target demographic for an indoor golf thing.

But this seems like the sports bar of the future, to be honest, where you go to an upscale place that has a bunch of TVs you can watch sports. There's golf simulators. And there's not just golf simulators. There's bowling. There's shuffleboard. There's a ton of recreation stuff to do because I think people our age don't just want to go to a bar and sit down and hang out and talk forever.

They want to have activities options. And you've seen that in other cities other than New York that have a lot more space where you can go play ping pong. And I think that this is capitalizing on that trend as well in addition to the ups, up swing in indoor golf. Yeah. There's definitely a few past these. clubs can fall into.

Like the one you mentioned, T-squared Social is this new 22,000 square foot facility in Midtown, Manhattan that was opened by Tiger Woods and Justin Timberlake. And they have a golf emphasis, but not a golf focus because, like you said, they got a bowling alley, they got a dartboard in addition to

its golf simulators. But then you have places like five iron golf, which are a lot more golf focused. It's for the more hardcore golfers. We used to play in a league at one of these golf-focused places in Hoboken called Hudson Golf. So shout out Hudson Golf. And then you got places like Inwood, which are more like traditional golf clubs in terms of there are this exclusive member feel to it.

So it does seem like we're seeing like a bifurcation in how the market is targeting this gap in the market. A lot of people are listening to this and probably thinking, wow, this is the most bro-y thing ever. It's fun in there. Yeah. But also I want to say that some of these clubs are really stressing gender parity. In town, like you talked about, said we want to appeal to as many people as possible. and they said that 10% of their members are women and it's something that they want to increase.

So, I mean, I don't know if it'll ever get there, but it does make golf more accessible to people because in New York City, you really have to drive an hour and spend eight hours out there. It sucks. So maybe just this trend will create more accessibility to people and also just increase the number of sports bar options so you don't just sit there and watch TV

and you can actually do activities, which is super fun. Okay, Toby, I want to talk about a trend as well, and that is behavior. years we took up during the pandemic reverting back to pre-COVID norms, one of those is cooking meals at home. When restaurants were closed during peak COVID, many people began to chef it up in their house. Personally speaking, I became a whiz at Gordon Ramsey's scrambled eggs and even bought a lot of crusette. In 2020, people in the U.S. ate 9.4 meals at home per week up from 8.4 in 2019. But a new Gallup Cookpad survey showed that the eating at home rate last year plunged to 8.2,

A historic low. So it seems like the gradual return to office, the greater comfort with eating out, and inflation in the grocery aisle had Americans returning to their Thursday night at Chili's ritual. Thursday night at Chili's. I actually was digging into this trend a little bit. I remember reading an article from June of last year saying that the new trend was actually people ordering takeout, but then dressing it up with some of the ingredients they had around the house laying around. So you might order some pasta from Olive Garden, but then dress it up with an $8 jar of sauce. What I do is order a turkey sandwich with the bread and the turkey and then put all the fixings on that I have at home because they charge you so much for a slice of cheese or tomato or an onion. So that's my little hack.

That is a good monetary hack. But it was interesting to see how the trend kind of evolved over time to everyone was cooking at home. But then we're like, all right, I don't want to actually make the turkey sandwich. I'll order that, then put the fixings on. But now people are back to just ordering out, probably because they feel a lot more comfortable to going out to eat than in the pandemic. era. Yeah. Last year, people spent 21% more at restaurants than they spent on groceries in 2022.

That is a huge gap, and that's a complete reversal of the way things have been going from in the 2010. So you just see a lot more. I mean, the restaurant industry is booming, and they're constantly searching for workers. Okay. Our next trend is that second home sales have fallen dramatically since the pandemic. U.S. vacation home sales are down three quarters from the crazy pace set three years ago, as an inventory shortage makes it.

impossible to find one. Sales have all but dried up in places in popular vacation spots, even though demand remains sky high. Hilton Head Island and Lake Havasu City in Arizona have experienced the greatest fall in the volume of available homes down 83% and 87% respectively. And overall, the current share of secondary homes within the market is sitting at 16% as of August down from a peak of 22% in January of last year. So break out the world's tiny file in for the 1% because the years of frenzied vacation home buying in the pursuit of more space during the pandemic are over. I was looking at the stat and I was about to read something about higher mortgage rates biting and people not being able to afford a second home. That is not the case.

There's plenty of demand. Just all the second homes have been bought already. So I thought that was kind of funny because if you're buying a second home, you look at something like a 7.5% mortgage versus a 6% mortgage and you're like, all right, well, maybe I can hand this. Right. So, demand for those homes remains more constant because, yeah, as you said, a percentage increase or decrease in a mortgage rate doesn't affect the second home market as much. It also hurts the remodeling market, too, though, because some of this larger ticket remodeling work on new vacation rentals has all but dried up. So there are some second-order effects that ripple through the economy. But, yeah, again, world's tiniest violin.

The final, the new normal is the old normal stat, is the decline of the home office. According to a study by Zillow, real estate agents are advertising home office perks. in their listings far less often than they used to. The report found that keywords like Home Office and Zoom Room were mentioned significantly less in real estate listings during the first six months of 2023 compared to the same period last year, and the words Peloton Room plunged nearly a quarter. Poor Peloton. It is a sign of shifting priorities as potential homebuyers put less focus on a fancy home

office since they're probably on that commuting grind at least three times a week. Brokers say it is very unusual for the mention of previously popular. features like a home office to not become an important selling point in the span of just a year. But it's just another example of how weird things were during COVID. Yeah, if you just look at some of these terms, Cloughface, which I had never heard of. I don't think it exists. Which was a closet office is down 54%. Why would you want to advertise that, first of all?

It's so bizarre. And then, yeah, Zoom room slash home office down 41%. Office shed is another weird one down 31%. But the interesting thing to me is this indicator itself because there's word limits. on platforms like Zila, so you actually have to be very strategic on which features you choose to advertise. So looking at this data does give a good sense of what kind of real estate agents are prioritizing when trying to sell a house. And it looks like it's shifting back to pre-COVID trends, which are you want to boast about the quality of the kitchen and the number of bathrooms,

but aren't they seeing this data that fewer people are cooking at home? I know, I know. Look at all these trends that are putting together. What's your number one like amenity in a house? I mean, I think just, I mean, as someone who's shared a bathroom growing up, just if I, if you have your own bathroom, that seems like a big thing. And as someone who's sharing a bathroom in my current apartment, I just want my own bathroom at this point. So I guess the amount of bathrooms for me. All right, Neil, it is Halloween after all, which means we got to finish the show off with some haunted real estate. Neil, any time I watch a horror movie like The Conjuring or Sinister, I always have the same question. Why, when bad things start happening, doesn't the family just

move? Well, it turns out that those things. Fictional families are actually acting a lot like real families would in their situation. According to Zillow, nearly 70% of prospective buyers would buy a haunted house if it checked all their boxes, while nearly 30% of prospective buyers say they would be more likely to purchase a home if it were haunted. And even if they saw physical evidence of haunting, say, for instance, a ghostly apparition, 20% say it wouldn't impact their purchase decision. So yeah, Neil, apparently the only thing out there is scarier than literal ghouls, ghosts,

Goblins is the housing market. That's super weird. I mean, it's not that surprising. This is saying if you have, if I showed you your dream house and you got it for a huge discount, if it was quote unquote haunted, which it's not haunted, would you buy it? And so I'm not surprised that nearly 70% of people said it. Okay. So you were saying you would obviously buy it? I 100% wouldn't and I'll tell you why.

Because therefore, going forward, every single noise you heard or every single bump in the night, you would think in your back of your mind, all right, is it haunted? And that level of psychological distress for me wouldn't even make my dream home worth it. Also, I'm just a scaredy cat who can't watch any movies. So I would not buy it. I guess you're brazen. Okay. Yeah, I am a little bit braver.

But there are, I just want to mention, there are a couple states that do have laws around disclosing paranormal activity when selling your house. They are New York, New Jersey, Massachusetts, and Minnesota. And New York has the strictest ones. If a seller has publicly made claims about their property, having supernatural activity or ghosts, they have to inform the buyer of those claims or the buyer could sue them after the fact. So it publicly means they gave interviews about the fact that there were ghosts in the house or they invited a haunted TV show to come and look at their house and do a big thing on that.

I feel like that's fair because, again, like someone like me would like to know that. So again, I'm out on, I'm not buying a house anytime soon, but if I found my dream house and it was haunted, miss me with that. All right, that's a wrap on our show. Happy Halloween, everybody. Hope everyone finds the house that gives out full candy bars tonight. You can tell us how good we look in the YouTube comments

or by sending a note to our email address, Morning Brew Daily at MorningBrew.com, and don't forget about the costume contest. Let's roll the credits. Emily Milliron is our head coach. Raymond Liu is our associate producer. Euchenawa Ogu is our technical director. Billy Minino is on audio.

If hair and makeup were here, you wouldn't be able to recognize us at all. Devin Emery is our chief content officer and our show is a production of Morning Brew. Great show today, Neil. Let's run it back tomorrow. All. Pay off your home, travel for life, drive a Ferrari.

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