Morning Brew Daily - US Takes 10% Stake in Intel & Olive Garden is Inflation-Proof

Episode Date: August 25, 2025

Episode 655: Neal and Toby discuss why the US government is taking  a 10% stake in Intel. Then a recap of Jerome Powell’s speech on Friday and what it could mean for interest rates. Next up the Trump admin will be ending an offshore wind project. The winners of the last weekend are Olive Garden for bringing back endless pasta and US tourism because it is hotter than ever. Finally a look at the week ahead.  LinkedIn will even give you a $100 credit on your next campaign so you can try it yourself. Check out LinkedIn.com/mbd for more. Submit your MBD Password Answer here: https://docs.google.com/forms/d/1Yzrl1BJY2FAFwXBYtb0CEp8XQB2Y6mLdHkbq9Kb2Sz8/viewform?edit_requested=true  Check out Brew Markets here: https://swap.fm/l/9Qk4z73Z2nEwFiCB4qee    Subscribe to Morning Brew Daily for more of the news you need to start your day. Share the show with a friend, and leave us a review on your favorite podcast app. Listen to Morning Brew Daily Here:⁠ ⁠⁠https://www.swap.fm/l/mbd-note⁠⁠⁠  Watch Morning Brew Daily Here:⁠ ⁠⁠https://www.youtube.com/@MorningBrewDailyShow⁠ 00:00 - US Open is Back 03:30 - US Invests in Intel 09:30 - Powell Speaks on Friday 13:25 - Offshore Wind Project Ends 18:15 - Olive Garden is Inflation-Proof 22:30 - US Tourism is Back 24:40 - Week Ahead Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Many employees can't afford a hefty medical bill that pops up out of the blue, but it happens. And employees who are financially stressed are, understandably, more likely to be distracted at work, costing their employers greatly in lost productivity. Luckily, AFLAC plans help with out-of-pocket expenses not covered by health insurance and can be offered at no direct cost to businesses. Learn more at aflac.com slash morningbrewerdaily. That's aflac.com slash morning brew daily. Good morning brew daily show. Simon. And I'm Toby Howell. Today, Intel gets a lifeline from the U.S. government, but at what cost?

Then investors loved what they were hearing out of Jerome Powell's speech in Jackson Hole. It's Monday, August 25th. Let's ride. Good morning and happy Monday. Guys, summer is coming to an end. It's undeniable and you can't fight it. The clearest sign yet is that yesterday, the U.S. Open for tennis kicked off in Queens, one of the great late summer traditions and an increasingly sceny event for New York celebrities, which has made it all. the more expensive for the rest of us. Anyway, on to the tennis. On the men's side, there's only two names you need to know, Yannick Sinner and Carlos Alcraz. These young studs are dominating the sport,

having won the seven last grand slam titles between them. On the women's side, the draw is stacked with Americans like Cocoa Gough, Madison Keys, Jessica Pagula, and Amanda Anisimova. In fact, there are two American women in the top four and three in the top six. But Toby, the most important question, how many honey deuses can I put you down for this year?

You know, you can put me down for 30 love of those. One is sold every one and a half seconds during the tournament. That's despite the fact that the prices increased six times in the past decade. It was $15 back in 2015, but it's $23 today. But you know what, Neil, they can make it $30, and I'd still want one. I do want your power rankings of Grand Slam signature drinks. So Wimbledon has the Pims Cup, which is gin-based and mixed with lemonade soda, cucumbers, and mint. French Open just has Moet Champagne.

Pretty classy. the Australian Open introduced the lemon ace recently, which is another gray goose drink that is more citrusy than the honey deuce. And then the honey deuce itself, which is gray goose vodka, lemonade, and chambrad raspberry liqueur. Which one are you spending $23 on? I'll go on PIMS cup, number one. It is the most classic.

Then the honey juice, then the champagne at the French Open because, you know, it's a tennis tournament. It's not a wedding. And then finally, the Australian Open, the lemonade that feels so forced. They should just stick with what Australia does best and just to give us all a flat white. And now word from our sponsor, LinkedIn ads. Toby, it is good to have you back.

It is good to be back, Neil. Did you miss me? I did. I heard a rumor. You were staying in Canada and never coming back. I would never. I can't do kilometers or putteen. So you're saying, I wasted energy missing you.

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terms at aka.m.m.S. College PC. Ads. Intel has a major new shareholder, Uncle Sam. On Friday, President Trump announced that the U.S. government will take a 10% stake in the struggling chipmaker, a move that escalates this White House has never seen before interventions into America's private companies. Officials said the deal would have Intel converting the nearly $9 billion in grants it received under the Chips Act into equity for the government. Investors love the move, sending Intel's battered stock 5.5% higher on the day. CEO Lip-Butans neck must be hellas sore from the whiplash of the past few weeks. Earlier this month, Trump called on him to be fired for his previous investments into Chinese companies.

Tan immediately hopped on a plane to meet with Trump in Washington, D.C., which was where the president floated the idea of the government taking a 10% stake. Fast forward to Friday, and the two were smiling and shaking hands as business partners. As Trump said, he walked in wanting to keep his job, and he ended up giving us $10 billion for the United States. So why is this happening? The White House says it's a national security imperative until is a flailing American. chipmaker that needs a boost in order to compete with foreign rivals, and Chips Act subsidies weren't cutting it. They also mentioned major upside to American taxpayers should Intel's stock

rebound. At the same time, the deal is freaking out free market economists, including many conservatives who argue that government meddling in private markets distorts competition and leads to businesses making decisions based on political considerations instead of commercial ones. Essentially, they say the Trump administration is adopting a form of socialism. Toby, Trump is taking the government's role in private enterprise to levels we have never seen before. Yeah, we actually have seen it before recently, though, in the Trump administration because they took a golden share in the U.S. Nippon Steel merger. And then also they're taking a cut of semiconductor sales to China. So this is clearly in line with kind of the state capitalism

that Trump has been running in his second term. Some people like the deal. They say that obviously Intel can benefit from the government support. They now have almost a salesman in chief. with Trump because the one thing Intel needs more than $9 billion from the government is just customers. That is why some people did not look super highly on this deal because technically, if you don't have anyone to buy your chips that you are putting all this money into building out a factory from, then you don't really have a business. And that looks to be the K-CO Liputan literally said last month that the company may have to quit the entire foundry contracting business itself if it does not land any big clients. So yes, $9 billion.

from the government, all well and good, having Trump out your back, all well and good. But if you don't have people who actually want to buy your chips, then it doesn't matter. And that point is where many critics of this deal are zeroing in on. And when I said that they, when the government takes a 10% stake in your business, then you start doing things for political means instead of commercial means. So you said that they need to find customers for this foundry business. What Intel has done is they want to become a contract manufacturer for chips. It's kind of a pivot from what they have historically done.

Well, they're building a huge plant in Ohio. They're spending $20 billion on this, but it is not gone well because they don't have enough customers. Tan has come in new to the position and said, well, let's dial this back a little bit because this is an investment maybe not worth making. It's not necessarily the direction we should go in as a company. But here's the thing. Now that the U.S. government is a 10% shareholder in this company, perhaps they will continue

to make investments in Ohio, even because that's not. necessarily efficient, but because it is a political move because Ohio is a major swing state and you want to have jobs and investments in Ohio specifically. So this Ohio plan is sort of a flashpoint in saying this is why the U.S. government in meddling in private markets is not a good idea because you start doing things for politics and not because the free market demands it. And then the one thing that some people looked at this deal and saw is that this isn't a pledge for incremental funding, which might say that, maybe the government is willing to provide this one-time cash infusion, but they're not necessarily

having this big appetite for the future of Intel. If they really had, if they really believe that this company is going to be the one that will resure domestic manufacturing of semiconductor chips, maybe they would say, hey, we'll give you $2 billion every year going forward because we support your ongoing efforts. The fact that it's just a one-time cash infusion shows that maybe they have a weaker appetite for this business than Trump ostensibly on the surface is. showing. Now, there are some supporters that coming from interesting quarters, Bernie Sanders, the Democratic Socialist from Vermont said he supported this deal. He said if microchip companies make a profit from the generous grants they receive from the federal government, the taxpayers of

America have a right to a reasonable return on that investment. And if there's someone here in New York City who supports Zoran Mamdani's plan to open government-operated grocery stores, then on principle you should also be for this. So you have, you know, Trump taking a very different attack than conservative free market economists would typically want, and is aligning more himself with very interventionist people on the way left. And then you have the traditional free market conservatives who are saying, well, this is completely distorting private markets. We shouldn't be bailing out any private companies, perhaps in 2008, when the U.S. government did take a stake in automobile companies and in banks, too, because they were too big to fail, quote unquote. And, you know,

if they were to fail, then they would take the economy along with it. You know, the critics of you'll say that, you know, Intel maybe is not too big to fail. There are other major chip companies in the United States like AMD, which is actually bigger than Intel. And now, because the U.S. government has made Intel its champion, AMD is at a severe disadvantage because if you are buying chips, who are you going to buy chips from? Intel or AMD? Probably Intel because they now have the U.S. government at their back. But what if Intel doesn't make as good enough chips as AMD, then, again, you just have an inefficient market. And that's why critics are bashing this. If your portfolio was green heading into the weekend, you have Jerome Powell to thank for it.

The Federal Reserve Chair sent stocks flying on Friday after he hinted during his Jackson Holt speech to a gathering of central bankers that he may reduce rates in the future. Remember, Jay Powell is still a coy son of a gun who knows his words move markets. So his exact wording was, with policy and restrictive territory, the baseline outlook and the shifting balance of risks may warrant adjusting our policy stance. And non-Fed speak, that means that the delicate balance between key, keeping inflation low and fostering economic conditions where people can get jobs has shifted. According to Powell, tariff-related costs have been accumulating in the economy, but during his

speech he suggested that maybe they'd be shorter lived than expected, which calmed some inflation fears. As for the jobs market, he still thinks it's stable, but admitted that there are signs popping up that suggests it's weakening. The elephant in the room, too, is that Powell has been under a ton of pressure from the Trump administration to cut rates, though he reiterated his pledge at the Fed doesn't take political factors into account when setting interest rates. There were some recent signs of quickening inflation and still solid economic data in the last few weeks that caused traders to get nervy about a rate cut come September, but Powell's speech helped assuage some of those fears. Now, Neil, the odds of a rate cut at the Fed's next

meeting sit just above 83%, not a certainty, but getting pretty close. Investors were like horses at the Kentucky Derby going into that gate and all they wanted was just those gates to open in Powell to say that there would be a rate cut in September. You know, he didn't explicitly say it, but he did say it in his Federal Reserve speak way. You had the S&P 500 jumping 1.6%. The NASDAQ was up 2% on Friday. And then the Russell 2000 index of smaller companies, these companies are much more sensitive to interest rate changes.

This index rose 3%. So Wall Street was absolutely loving it. They are now pricing in over a 90% chance of a rate. What I thought was the most interesting part of Jerome Powell's speech was his remarks on the labor market. He said what was going on was an unusual situation where the risks of worse than expected labor market outcomes are rising. And if they materialize, they can do so quickly in the form of higher layoffs and rising

unemployment. He's saying at the same time, we have a slowing demand for jobs. There's also slowing supply of workers. Economists are reading the tea leaves here and saying that there's been. a huge drop-off in immigration from 2023 and 2024 to 2025. And that has led to just fewer people applying for jobs. So at the same time, you have companies hiring less. You also have fewer people looking for jobs. And that is one piece of the puzzle here, because we know over the past few months there's been really low hiring. But at the same time, unemployment rate

is at 4.2 percent, which is historically low. It's really hard to square that circle. And they think that immigration really is the answer here? Yeah, economy is just in a weird stasis, is kind of how Powell framed it, because you have these cuts to the federal workforce, too, and then you also have these massive tariffs that have hit around the world. We're also coming off of just a string of really ugly

downward revisions in jobs reports. May and June had a cumulative adjustment of 258,000 jobs to the downside. That ended up with Trump firing the head of the BLS, but also, trade. It also showed that the labor market is weaker than potentially expected. And then let's finally talk about inflation. Powell did kind of temper expectations that he's going to go on this string of rate cuts by saying that inflation is still running hotter than the 2%. It's been

at above 2% for the past four years now. So we're not going to go on this rate cutting spree, but he did say that maybe the impact of tariffs isn't going to be as long term as many expected, which again, investors cheered. Moving on, President Trump is becoming a breezeless and cloudy day for wind and solar projects, ratcheting up his attacks on the renewable energy sector, just as power demands are growing. Last week, the Trump administration halted construction on an offshore wind project near Rhode Island, citing national security concerns. The project was run by a Danish wind farm developer, Orsted, who said the farm, which was slated to power 350,000 homes, was nearly across the finish line with 45 of 65

turbines already installed. But Trump has made fossil fuels a much bigger priority than renewable so far in his administration, calling wind and solar the scam of the century on social media. Nearly $19 billion worth of renewable energy project have already been canceled this year, a over 2100% increase from last year, according to the financial times. That's a problem because the U.S. is going through an unprecedented energy crunch right now. Power-hungry data centers used to train AI models are sending electricity, demand through the roof, and industry watchers say that utility providers may have to soon turn away

AI companies to avoid blackouts. If the whole renewable sector is being sideline, that could jeopardize U.S. companies' chances in the AI race as well. Neil, it has been a rough one out there for renewables right now. And if you look at the stock market this morning, especially Orsted, it has plunged 18 percent because this company has invested billions of dollars into this particular wind farm off the coast of Rhode Island. Nearly 80 percent complete. They had said, installed all the foundations. They put in 45 of the 65 plant turbines. It was set to begin operations next year. And now Orsted is looking at its financials and saying, uh-oh, this is really bad. They previously, because of other canceled projects and the adverse business

environment for wind projects in the United States, they had to raise, they want to raise $9.4 billion to shore up their balance sheet. Things are not good for Orsted and a bunch of the other renewables companies. If you look at their stock prices since the inauguration, in January. It is very, very ugly. It's just a tough time to be in the renewables industry. One, because a lot of red tape is emerging at the Interior Department who has to approve a lot of these projects. There's also rising costs because copper and steel tariffs are influencing wind and solar production. And then a lot of businesses are saying we don't know if we want to invest in America anymore. It used to be for multinational power companies. The U.S. was

the gold standard, a very stable business environment. but now you're seeing a lot of energy companies kind of slashed their planned investment in the U.S. due to regulatory concerns due to tariffs. So it's just been a total 180 in the past, you know, a couple of months, honestly, for the renewable industry right at the time when we need power coming online because these data centers are just so power hungry. And prices for, you know, your average person who are powering their home are going up. The nationwide average retail residential price for one kilowatt hour of electricity was up 6.5. between May 2024 and May 2025.

There was that big wholesale auction for power capacity from PJM Interconnection, which is the nation's largest grid. Those wholesale prices rose 22% compared to last year. And they say 60% of that price increase was attributable to data centers. The shoe is going to drop here between the lack of power capacity coming online and the surge in data centers we've been seeing. Up next, we're going to go to our winners of the weekend. It's time to refresh your yard during spring backyard days at the Home Depot.

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Download the Priceline app or visit Priceline.com. Actual prices may vary, limited time off. offer. Welcome to Winners of the weekend, the segment where Toby and I pick two things that deep cleaned their apartment. I won the pre-show Home Run Derby, so I get to go first. And my winner is Olive Garden's never-ending Pasta Bowl, because in a world of never-ending price increases, it's stayed inflation-proof. The fan favorite pasta special returns to Olive Garden menus today for a limited run through November, and the price will be the same as it has been for the past four years, 1399. Compare that to restaurant prices in general, which have increased more than 30% since 2020.

For $14, you'll get a meal that will even fill up a growing boy like Toby. It comes with endless pasta plus unlimited soup or salad and, of course, unlimited breadsticks. You can add unlimited toppings for an additional $5. It's the kind of deal that could win over Americans who are pulling back on $17 bull slop from Sweet Green and gravitating toward food that gives you more bang for your buck. And if the never-ending possible is my winner, the honorable mentions are all the other sacred products whose prices haven't budged despite soaring inflation. First one that comes to mind is Arizona iced tea, which has remained 99 cents since the company

was founded in 1992. And who could forget Costco's hot dog and a soda combo, which has cost $1.50 since 1985. Toby, how do these companies do it, keeping these prices so low? Why do they do it? It is definitely a deliberate strategy. If you hold the line on price, especially in an environment where prices seem to just be increasing every single year, you're trading a little bit of margin. Yes, you're going to maybe potentially even lose money on selling it, but you're trading that for brand loyalty. In a lot of these companies, it is seen as a loss leader, some of these promotions.

Costco, their rotisserie chickens, their hot dog, they get you in the door. They make you feel like you're part of this community of Costco lovers. And then you actually spend money on things that make Costco money. so it is considered a loss leader. But good gosh, I love this from Olive Garden. They are so synonymous with Unlimited at this point. They got the unlimited breadsticks. They got this unlimited pasta deal.

And there's 96 different pasta and sauce combinations with, if you include those additional toppings as well. So you could eat there for a while, a few months at a time and never eat the same thing. So just a great play on both brand loyalty and also a nostalgia play as well because it's been around since the 90s. You have to think that so many people are getting the toppings, too.

So it's not a $14 meal. It's really $19 because if you're getting unlimited pasta and all that stuff, you're going to want some chicken or meatballs or sausage on top of that. And you are nodding here because you know that as well. I totally agree with that. But I do feel for Olive Garden because it just lost its crown as the number one casual dining, fast casual dining chain in the U.S. After seven straight years on top, it lost it to Texas Roadhouse,

who doesn't even have a loss leader. Actually, they do have a little bit of a loss leader with, those bread that are just absolutely delicious that you get for free. So maybe the only way you can make it to the top of the restaurant heap is to just have like one of the greatest meal deals of all time, either Texas Roadhouse or Olive Garden are doing pretty well. My winner of the weekend is the tourism industry because it turns out that people still like to travel. Heading into summer, the industry was bracing for a major downer of a season. Trump's trade war had sparked boycotts from Canada and Europe. Airlines were seeing bookings dry up in the spring and gloomy headlines

out the job market made analysts think travelers would stay home. But the feared slump never really materialized. There were fewer international visitors with arrivals into U.S. airports falling nearly 4%, but domestic travelers filled the gap with TSA passenger traffic up in July and August compared to last year. It was mostly luxury travelers who put the team on their back, driving revenue per available room at top-tier hotel chains up 3%. But even on the other end of the spectrum, there were some signs of wanderlust. Ultra-budget vacation. operators, think campsites, RV parks, and cruises, said that they had a strong summer, with people opting to scale down on their vacays rather than cancel them altogether.

The strong season led Hilton, Hyatt, and Carnival to raise their forecasts, something that seemed unlikely even just a few months ago. Neil, it's not a blowout summer, but what was supposed to be a storming season turned into a surprisingly steady one. You forget just how big the United States is. So any sort of shortfall in international travel can be made up for by people living here already. Domestic travelers account for almost 90% of tourist spending in the United States each year. And that is a huge consumer market for a lot of hospitality

companies. I thought it was very interesting that campsites were doing so well. I thought that was very much a 2021 and 22 thing during COVID where people wanted to be outside. But no, they are growing at the fastest pace since the pandemic began to ebb in February 2020. 22. So a lot of people are going camping. And then RV campsites are doing also similarly well. Cruise operators are all jacking up their forecast. So people are still traveling. And maybe it's a sign that people are prioritizing traveling over other leisure things. Like maybe you would go to a baseball game or a movie or you have all these possible things to do with your leisure time. And seems like Americans coming out of the pandemic started to prioritize vacations. And that has

lingered for many years. And now it's just a permanent feature of our economy. in our behavior. Yeah, an analyst from Golden Sacks argued that exact same thing. She was said that the post-COVID revenge travel was thought to be maybe a flash in the pan thing, but it actually turned into a structural prioritization of vacation over other leisure spending. So you're absolutely right. We are seeing, you know, restaurant spending fall a little bit, but we're seeing vacation spending staying pretty consistent. That being said, there are a little bit of clouds on the horizon because, remember, there is still a weakness in international travelers and those are travelers who too come to the U.S.

intend to stay longer and pay more money. There's also some policy headwinds as well. There's a $250 visa integrity fee that may deter some of those mid-market visitors. So definitely not the worst season that we've had, but certainly some storm clouds brewing on the horizon. It's Monday. So here's what you need to know to stay ahead in the week ahead. On the earnings calendar, there's only one name that matters,

and it has two consonants placed awkwardly together in VIDIA. Last month, the chipmaker became the first U.S. company to reach a $4 trillion market valuation. But since then, the vibes around AI have taken a turn for the worse. Invidia and other big tech stocks are wobbling as concerns started to bubble about an AI bubble. Plus, Nvidia has all sorts of headaches in its key market, China, which has begun to encourage local companies to avoid using Nvidia's chips. Toby, NVIDIA's earnings are always important, but Wednesday's report feels more high stakes than usual. The future of the stock market may depend on it. It does feel like that, but the street publication found that nine analysts who covered the stock

recently raised their price target on Nvidia over the next 12 months, so they're still saying that growth is going to be pretty steady there. Then I'm also just very curious to see what CEO Jensen Huang says about the government collecting 15% of their sales revenue to China. I think those are the two big question marks here is what the heck does this deal actually entail? Is it going to be good for business, bad for business? So, going to be tuning into that.

Burning Man kicked off yesterday and runs the, through next weekend. Over 70,000 free spirits have traveled to the middle of nowhere, Nevada, to create a pop-up settlement, Black Rock City, where they'll attend art installations like the Porta Potty Confessional and dance to EDM music as the sun comes up with rinse and rave. Toby, I'd like to go to Burning Man for one day just to see what it's like. Get in 7 a.m., get out 10 p.m. Don't want to stay over, but I simply need to see it once in my life. I want to go for the whole week or however long it lasts. That being said, we might have to go soon because they're being in a little bit of financial trouble in recent years. The festival did not

sell out this year, did not sell out last year. So it's a famously anti-capitalist institution that's in a bit of a pickle right now because it needs a little bit more money. A couple of other notes and anniversaries. Today is the 50th anniversary of the release of Born to Run, the album that launched Bruce Springsteen's superstardom, was jamming to it all yesterday. It totally holds up. Friday is the 20th anniversary of Hurricane Katrina, which is sure to be. a major event in New Orleans and across the country. And on Saturday, week one of the college football season begins with some tasty matchups. And then it's also Labor Day weekend coming up.

So once you get through this week, you have a three-day weekend to look forward to. That is all the time we have. Thanks so much for starting your morning with us. Have a wonderful start to the week. If you have any thoughts or feedback on today's show, send a note to Morning BrewD Daily at Morningbrew.com. And the moment you've all been waiting for the answer to last week's password contest, The password was King Kong, King Kong.

And we do have a winner, Shea Lachnain from Westwood, Massachusetts. Congrats and thanks to everyone who played along. Stay tuned for more games in the weeks and months to come. Let's roll the credits. Emily Milliron is our executive producer. Raymond Lute is our producer. Our associate producers are Olivia Graham and Olivia Lake. Hair and makeup, Miss Toby.

Devin Emery is our president and our show is a production of Morning Brew. Great show, Daniel. Let's run it back tomorrow. Yamava Resort and Casino at San Manuel is California. California's number one entertainment destination for today's superstars. Catch the Jonas Brothers return to the Yamava Theater stage on April 30th, the powerful vocals of Demi Lovato on May 17th,

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