Morning Brew Daily - War Puts Dubai’s Dreams in Jeopardy & Billionaires Sour on The Giving Pledge

Episode Date: March 17, 2026

Episode 801: Neal and Toby talk about the ripple effects of the Iran War, particularly in Dubai where aspirations of becoming a global financial hub are in jeopardy. Then, the Giving Pledge used to be all the rage amongst billionaires. Now, they’re looking to opt out. Also, the company behind Pokemon Go has partnered with a robotics company and plans to use its trove of data to train robots. Meanwhile, Toby examines the trend of typos amongst the powerful and elite.  Learn more at linkedin.com/MBD Join our March Madness bracket! https://fantasy.espn.com/games/tournament-challenge-bracket-2026/group?id=4f3dc815-5efe-4a5f-ab31-1479c99af85d&joining=true Subscribe to Morning Brew Daily for more of the news you need to start your day. Share the show with a friend, and leave us a review on your favorite podcast app. Listen to Morning Brew Daily Here:⁠ ⁠⁠https://www.swap.fm/l/mbd-note⁠⁠⁠  Watch Morning Brew Daily Here:⁠ ⁠⁠https://www.youtube.com/@MorningBrewDailyShow⁠ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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Good morning for Daily's show. I'm Neil Fryman. And I'm Toby Howell. Today with war raging in its backyard is the Dubai Dream over? Then your Pokemon Go data is being used to train delivery robots. It's Tuesday, March 17th. Let's ride. Good morning and happy St. Patrick's Day.

Okay, Toby, I put together a little St. Paddy's Day quiz for you and everyone listening. I'm going to give you the first part of a popular Irish. sang and you have to complete it. Ready? I am ready. This is completely off the cuff, by the way. Neil has not showed this to me, so go ahead. Okay, ready?

Number one is the older, the fiddle, the griddle. Not quite. The older the fiddle, the sweeter, the tune. Oh, I thought I was going to rhyme. I guess they don't have to rhyme. They don't have to rhyme. No, they just have to be cute.

Okay, I'm in there now. Go ahead. And deep. Okay, so question number two, phrase number two, May your home always be too small to hold all your love. Close friends. Dang it. May your home always be too small to hold all your friends.

Number three, you'll never plow a field by... Sitting on your arse. That is certainly true. The actual phrases, you'll never plow a field by turning it over in your mind. A call to action right there. I like that. And then finally, may misfortune follow you the rest of your life and never catch up. Yes, Toby.

Was it catch up? It is catch up. Let's go. May misfortune, follow you the rest of your life and never catch up. Just some words of wisdom from our friends over in Ireland. By the way, neither of us are wearing green right now. So we are pinchable. If anyone finds us on the streets in New York, we are pinchable.

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Wall Street joined in on the St. Patrick's Day festivities with all three indexes closing solidly green yesterday as investors parse every development coming out of the war in Iran. There was no real good news that sparked the rally. the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed to shipping, trapping in one-fifth of the world's oil output in addition to numerous other key commodities. But oil prices fell to $93 a barrel down from their Sunday highs of over 100, after President Trump signaled he was assembling an international coalition to open up the strait and alleviate an impending global energy crisis. But that effort doesn't seem to be going particularly well since officials in Japan,

Australia, and Italy declined to participate, while the UK and France are still in the we're thinking about its stage, Germany's defense minister was the most blunt in his refusal, saying, this is not our war, we did not start it. Elsewhere in the region, and this is what I want to dive into with you, Toby, Dubai is still under attack. An Iranian drone set a fuel tank on fire at Dubai International Airport, causing even more flag disruptions at one of the world's busiest aviation hubs. For the past few weeks, Iran has been attacking Dubai, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and other Gulf nations that have become international commercial powerhouses, branding themselves as a low-tax safe haven for capital, even in a conflict-prone region like the

Middle East. That Dubai brand, which took decades to build, has taken a big blow as drone strike five-star hotels and gleaming office towers, raining debris on the McLaren's and Ferraris below. An increasing number of analysts are wondering whether the Dubai dream has gone up in smoke. Yeah, the entire pitch of Dubai was very simple. It was basically like, hey, I know we are situated in a very volatile region, but we're actually above that. conflict. That has not been the case recently because if you look at just cold hard geography, Iran is 80 miles away from Dubai. That is New York to Philly. Imagine if, you know, Philly was doing stuff. Like, it's right in New York's backyard, essentially. They are doing

stuff. They are. I don't know what is going on in Philly, but they're doing stuff. But Dubai has just been on a massive, you know, upward trajectory. We can't ignore that. Its population was less than a million back in 2000. It's nearly four million today. So that is a quadrupling in just 25 years based on this singular promise of, you know, this is going to be the glitzy hub in a region, not necessarily knowing for that. So crazy how it had such a high run-up, but now you're facing the realities of just geography itself. Yeah, it doubled its millionaire population to more than 81,000 between 2014 and 2024. In 2025, alone, an estimated 9,800 millionaires were moving to the UAE.

Dubai actually now sits ahead of global cities like Tokyo, Singapore, Zurich, Paris, Frankfurt, Los Angeles, and Chicago. And just behind New York and London in its ability to attract global white collar talent, that's based on LinkedIn data, according to the urbanist Richard Florida, who wrote this long piece in the New York Times, questioning whether the Dubai dream was over. So geography has been a curse recently, but it has been, had been for the past few decades, a real blessing. And Dubai rose on the prominence and these other places like Qatar rose and Saudi Arabia, rose on their geography because they really are the center of the world. And they've established

their airports to be these huge international travel hubs. And a lot of wealth has moved through Dubai and the Gulf because of that. About two-thirds of the population lives, of the global population, lives within an eight-hour flight of Dubai. Dubai Gulf carriers carry about one in three. people traveling from Europe to Asia and one in two people from Europe to Australia. So it was this global nexus and it still remains that way. But as long as you hear about drone setting fire to Dubai International Airport, terminals and Emirates, the main carrier there is operating at such a low diminished capacity. They need to get this back on track or perhaps people will start leaving.

Yeah, nearly nine in 10 Dubai residents are not from Dubai. They are non-national. That is by far the highest percentage of any major city. in the world. If you just zoom out across the Emirates itself, 10 million of 11.4 million residents are foreign nationals. But the weird thing about Dubai is that there's no real path to citizenship. There's, or in the UAE in general too, citizenship is based entirely on dissent. They make it deliberately difficult to actually, you know, become naturalized in this country. That is a feature, not a bug. They want it to be kind of a transient city. A traffic violation can trigger

deportation. So it's very interesting. It's almost like city as a platform. This is the concept that they're going for. But the flip side of that is that even though it's very easy to put down roots there, that means it's also very easy to take those roots away because there's nothing tying you to this country and to this city. And the economic hits are already coming F1, which has multiple races in the region, including a few coming up, has already canceled their races in Bahrain and Saudi Arabia, which are coming up in the next month or so. So, these big global entertainment properties, which had flocked to the Gulf like UFC and F1, are already backing out at least this year because the war is still raging.

And then just quick update, even though we said that yesterday was a pretty green day for the market and oil mellowed out a little bit. This morning oil is ticking back up. It's up about 4% this morning creeping back towards that $100 barrel margin. And then also stock futures are slightly down right now. It really is kind of tied around if Trump and these. countries, NATO countries, can kind of get this coalition to escort ships through the strait, which is the big question mark right now. So a lot of what you're seeing happening in

the markets is trading around this sentiment towards that coalition. Moving on, in 2010, billionaires led by Bill and Melinda Gates and Warren Buffett signed a giving pledge promising to donate the majority of their wealth to charitable causes. But many who signed may have been crossing their fingers behind their back because the giving hasn't quite materialized. Signups have slowed to a trickle, and some are backing out altogether. The New York Times did a deep dive into the origin of the pledge in its subsequent fall from Grace. Times reporter Teddy Schleifer emphasizes how of the moment it was signing the pledge was fashionable in the early days, bringing positive media coverage, and helping those who

gave back earned the label of, quote, good billionaire. Aaron Horvath, a sociologist who has also studied the giving pledge, called it a time capsule of that era, but now it feels old school, he continued. The numbers tell the story. In the first five years, 113 people signed up. Over the next 5, 72, then 43, dwindling down until just four families signed the pledge in the entirety of 2024, a steady decline that shows shifting attitudes towards wealth. The shift has been spearheaded by the tech ultra-rich, who are a lot more dismissive of traditional philanthropy than billionaires of the past. Peter Thiel has waged a decades-long campaign against the pledge, saying he is privately encouraged at least a dozen signies to undo their signatures.

As the Times notes, Teal and others who share his worldview believe that the real way to give back is via business success, a claim echoed by Elon Musk, who says his businesses are, quote, philanthropy, though Musk is a signy of the giving pledge. Neil, we haven't seen a wave of people quitting quite yet, but it's certainly going out of style. Yeah, this is an important conversation to be having. What billionaires do with their money matters a lot because their slice of the pie is growing substantially. The top 1% of American households now hold about as much wealth as the bottom 90% combined, which is the highest concentration since the Fed started tracking this in

1989. And around the world, billionaire wealth has grown 81% since 2020, up to $18.3 trillion. This is a lot of money that could be thrown around, whether to the Giving Pledge or back into for-profit businesses or to other avenues of philanthropy or politics. So it's very interesting and important to see how billionaires and ultra billionaires are throwing around their money. And the issue with signing this pledge is that it doesn't really work. There's no mechanisms for enforcement's requirements on participation aren't very high. Signies must assent to a news release and typically a letter posted publicly on the foundation website. They, you know, tend annual gatherings of their billionaires usually held at a luxury resort. But it is very much a moral pledge. That's

Buffett's own words. He's saying that there's nothing binding you to this. So if you have no mechanism of enforcement, if the Giving Pledge does not track whether it's signers make any progress towards their commitments, then obviously it's not going to be something that has a lot of teeth and compels these very rich people to give away their money. So if billionaires aren't signing up for the Giving Pledge that much anymore, what are they doing with their money? Well, you can look at Michael and Susan Dell. They donated $6 billion to seed Trump accounts, which is giving new horns $1,000 to put in the stock market. So you can see that they're giving philanthropy, doing philanthropy, but perhaps in their own more private sector stock market, free market,

focused way. Or they're giving to politics and political races. A New York Times analysis found that 300 billionaires and their immediate family family members donated $3 billion, which is 19% of all contributions to federal elections in 2024. You just go back, five presidential elections ago and the share of billionaire spending was basically 0.3%. So because of the Supreme Court's ruling in 2010 that lifted campaign finance restrictions, billionaire spending on federal elections went from basically 0% to almost 20% of all contributions. Moving on, we got any Pokemon Go players in the house? Well, you might want to know that your quest to catch them all is being used to train sidewalk delivery robots. Last week, MIT Tech Review reported that Niantic Spatial,

an AI company affiliated with Pokemon Go has partnered with a last-mile delivery robot company, Cocoa Robotics, to use crowdsource Pokemon Go data to help its robots find their place in the world. Ever since Pokemon Go burst on the scene in 2016, hundreds of millions of users have taken pictures in urban environments where Pokemon could be found or do battle. At the same time, perhaps unwittingly, they were also giving then-parent company Niantic an unprecedented database of real-world imagery its leverage to create a visual positioning system. The company has 30 billion images you've taken at its disposal, along with important metadata,

like time of day, weather conditions, and camera angle. It is essentially a richly detailed digital copy of the physical world. And that's incredibly valuable for delivery robots, which, while they never need a bathroom, do need assistance understanding where they are spatially the way humans do, especially in downtown areas where GPS frequently doesn't work. As Niantic Spatial CEO John Hankey put it, it turns out that getting Pikachu to realistically run around and getting Coco's robot to safely and accurately move through the world is actually the same problem. Toby, when you're training a Pokemon, you're also training robots. This is a industry where very fine margins matter a lot because you're saying, why can't you just use GPS?

Well, if you want a burrito delivered to your door and the robot is five feet away at your neighbor's door, that is a bad user experience. You need extremely precise data, which is why, you know, Coco is so ecstatic that they have this massive treasure trove of very high quality pictures and videos taken by Pokemon Go players, because not only is it high quality, it's located in good parts of the city. It's often around, you know, very busy travel hubs that places where GPS does not perform very well. But also a lot of the data is tagged too, because robots are dumb. You see a sidewalk curb. You know it's a sidewalk curb. You know it's You shouldn't say that when they take over. I know. Sorry.

Editors delete that, please, for the eventual uprising. But here's the thing. You do need to tell robots like what they are. Like, they don't necessarily know what the world around them is. So you need the data to be tagged. You need the metadata to be very rich. And according to reports, Neontic is very good at providing data like that, which is why, you know, it's selling your, your Pokemon data to robotics companies.

What's interesting is they were gathering all this data in the first place because they thought they were going to do augmented reality because when they thought this data would plug into augmented reality. And if you're going around in AR glasses and looking at the world, you need to know what you're looking at and gather information on that. That was the original use case. But then what they found, what they called a Cambrian explosion in robotics and pivoted the data set to work with these delivery companies like Cocoa Robotics. But we should talk about like world models in general because this is direction that a lot of the leading AI researchers or AI thinkers are moving toward.

They're moving away from large language models like ChatGBT and Cloud and saying this is the real future of AI is using AI to help robots or other industrial processes operate in physical space. So Faye-Fei Lee, who's one of the top of the AI games. She has a startup called World Labs. Former meta-AI chief, Jan LeCun, has a new company that builds world models. Jeff Bezos started another company called Project Prometheus, which is focused on bringing AI to physical tasks, including robotics, drug design, and scientific discovery.

So this is maybe the canary in the coal mine. Most people were seeing this story and going, oh, did Pokemon Go players know that their data was going to be used for this? They didn't know it was going to be used to feed into robotics, but they did know that their data was going to be used for something. So a lot, I was cruising through the Reddit forums. The general reaction was not clutching their pearls and going, how could they? I think everyone was aware that it was going to be used for something.

where, you know, this headline kind of generated some response was, I didn't know it was going to be for these tiny little delivery robots. It was kind of a mixed reception to that entire, you know, news cycle. All right, we're going to take a quick break and come back with Toby's trends. Neil, I know you don't take investing seriously. You're right. I keep all my money inside my mattress. Don't be like Neil, whose door is almost always unlocked. Be like public.com users who take investing seriously.

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In fact, your sloppy job, texting is bringing you closer to the global elite, a trend I want to talk about on today's edition of Toby's trends. Poor spelling, uneven spacing, improper capitalization, all are hallmarks of the rich and powerful, according to a recent Wall Street Journal article. Just look at Jack Dorsey's recent memo announcing huge layoffs at his company block. He wrote it in all lowercase, like a middle schooler texting his friends. David Ellison, who was working on becoming the next Hollywood Baron, misspelled David when corresponding with Warner Brothers CEO, David's Laslav, despite sharing a name with him. But the journal's article mainly focused on the Epstein

files, highlighting how nearly every correspondence in them was riddled with awful typing. Business insider points out that replying to emails immediately, often with just a few words, is a hallmark of emailing like a CEO. Another telltale sign is emailing with just a subject line and no body. Both are meant to convey the idea that when you're the boss, pleasantries, or formal email style need not apply. Neil, misspellings are very much a part of the era we live in. We send so many texts and DMs and emails back and forth to each other that casualness has invaded our online writing. Heck, even the president sends out social media posts that feature periodic misspellings. But it seems like it doesn't really matter anymore. There are four words, in my opinion,

that opened Pandora's box when it comes to typos, and I think they are sent from my iPhone. And when you're sending an email from your iPhone is essentially a text, and that gave a lot of lot of people license to make misspellings or grammatical errors or just basically send an email like you would a text. And it's just been a sea change in how technology has changed. Our communication, just go back to CEO communication in 1950s. A CEO would probably, if they wanted to issue a public memorandum or something, they would do something like speak into a dictaphone, and then a secretary would come along, listen to that, and then transcribe it into this beautiful letterhead and make sure everything was perfect.

If they made a mistake, they would go back and do it again. And our technology mediums have changed so much where we're basically just emailing back and forth. And it's very interesting to see the power dynamic because I think if you are a junior employee listening to this, you're saying, what? I would never make a typo in an email that would horrify me. But at the top upper echelon, it's seen as you've made it because you are allowed to make a typo and no one can really call you out on it.

But then in an odd twist of fate, the rise of AI and LLMs have smooth overriding to such a degree that now typos are seen as a way to show that you are human. And I think a lot of people who get any inbound email requests from recruiters or from people trying to pitch their services, if they have, if it's clearly written by an LLM, LLM, I literally just ignore it because I don't want to talk to someone who, you know, can't take the time of day to write something themselves. If they have the hallmarks of human writing, oftentimes it is a spelling error. Oftentimes it's a punctuation era, at least you know it's a human on the other end. So in a weird way, it's become a status signifier that I am a real person. So everyone who, you know, struggled with

spelling growing up are going, you kind of luckboxed into this. Either you're a CEO at this point, or you're just someone that can exemplify that you're a real human being. So it's just fascinating how spelling has gone from this big faux pot to something that is almost encouraged at this point. I think a lot of people would be looking at this saying, don't you dare send me an email with a typos still? Like, we still got a whole. We've got to still hold some standards here, but it's very interesting to see what AI is doing to language as well. All right, let's sprint to the finish with some final headlines. The Burger Wars are back, but not in the fun way with CEOs filming videos of themselves.

No, I'm talking about the largest meat plant strike in decades kicking off yesterday at a JBS facility in Greeley, Colorado. About 3,800 workers walked off the job at a plant that handles roughly 5% of America's entire beef processing capacity. The union is asking for wages that keep pace with inflation and to stop making workers pay out of pocket for protective gear. JBS has countered saying its offer is strong and fair. The timing couldn't be worse. The U.S. cattle herd is the smallest that's been in 75 years squeezing up prices, and consumers are feeling the pinch at the grocery store with ground beef prices jumping 15% over the past year. So you've got record prices, a supply crunch, and now a production shutdown at one of the country's biggest plants.

Neil, no more fun McDonald's Big Arch videos. No, labor fight is the opposite of what JBS wants right now. Because we have the smallest cattle herd in 75 years, that's driven up the cost of buying cows to slaughter at your slaughterhouse. So that's led to billions of dollars in losses for these meatpacking companies. JBS through the first nine months of 2025 reported $56 million in operating losses, which is compared to just $64 million from the prior year. and now they're dealing with one of the biggest, perhaps the biggest meatpacking walkout in four decades.

When it comes to the car buying process, how many middlemen is too many? Well, if you ask Tommy McCula, there's at least room for one more. As the Wall Street Journal reports, McCullough has built a respectable business as a professional car negotiator for a fee of $1,000. He'll get on the phone with the dealership and try to talk them down on a vehicle's sticker price so you don't have to. He and his team of five bring in about $200,000 in revenue every month. negotiating dozens of deals on behalf of their clients. McCula also has a robust live stream side hustle where he broadcast some of his conversations with dealerships to 600,000 followers across TikTok and YouTube.

So why is this business taken off? Makula told the journal, you're hiring a middleman to deal with the middleman to make the middleman more efficient. Yeah, his whole edge, he says, is refusing to actually set foot in a dealership because as soon as you do that, you're investing hours, you're investing your time, and you almost feel trapped. When you're working the phone lines, it allows you to pit dealers against each other. He also just comes with a lot of data. None of this is accidental. If he can look at inventory around in a 50-mile radius and say, like, hey, this Jedda is going for a different price,

just 10 miles down the road. It gives you a lot of bargaining power. And car buying has generally become a brutal process for a lot of Americans, so I totally understand why they are going to the, you know, the third middleman in this transaction in order to save them a couple of bucks. Yeah, one in five car buyers committed to monthly payments of $1,000 or more at the end of last year, which is the highest share on record, according to Edmonds. As far as McCullough is concerned, I think he's also in it for the love of the game. Like, he just gets a lot of energy from this because this is how his business started. His business is called Delivered.

He was just negotiating deals for free for strangers on Reddit. He closed about 50 deals before he was said, okay, maybe I should start charging. for this, but this is a guy who just loves negotiating. It's also very cathartic to watch because everyone would love to imagine that they're getting the best deal possible so I can see why he's built a social media falling on top of his actual business. All right, finally, Warren Buffett probably hates everything about Kalshi, the prediction market that lets you wager on real-world events. But they do share one thing in common. They want to give you money for acing a March madness bracket. For years now, Buffett's floated a $1 million prize to anyone who fills out a perfect

bracket. But Kaushi is going even bigger. Yesterday, it announced it would give away $1 billion to someone if they filled out a perfect bracket on its platform, as well as one million to the top scoring bracket and another million to charity. This is probably a good time to remind you that you will not fill out a perfect bracket. Even if you know ball, the odds of picking all 67 games in the tournament correctly are one in 120 billion. And no one in history has gotten remotely close. That's not going to stop you from trying, right, Toby? I am going to try. I am going to try and I think that someone can win this. We have more data than ever. There's Torvik scores and Ken Palm efficiency ratings and T rankings, all of these quantified teams better than we ever have

in the past. Plus, you add on this layer of LLMs. I've seen people joking like, hey, chat chappit, fill out a perfect bracket for me, make no mistakes. But I do feel like we are inching towards a perfect bracket. I don't know if it's actually lies in the data because the whole name of the tournament is March Madness. But if there was an era to do it, I feel like we're entering that era. Yeah, I think the longest that a tournament bracket has ever stayed perfect is 49 games. 49 out of 67. Maybe we're inching toward it, but I think if you just look at the stone cold,

you're talking about data, but when the stone cold odds is that this will never, ever happen in our lifetimes are great, great, great, great. It's not stone cold odds, though, because, you know, like, if you actually were just picking 50, 50 games, it's closer to like one and a couple quintillion. Right. But if you said, you said ball knowers bring that down to $120 billion, I do think that we are getting better ball knowing because of just all the data out there these days. All of that being said, I'm going to tell you who's going to win the tournament.

It's going to be Michigan. All right. Go blue. That is all the time we have. Thanks so much for starting your morning with us and have a wonderful Tuesday. If you'd like to reach us, send an email to Morning Brew Daily at MorningBrew.com or DM us on Instagram at MB Daily Show. Let's roll the credits.

Emily Milliron is our supervising. producer, Raymond Loo is our senior producer. Our producer is Olivia Graham, and our associate producer is Olivia Lake. Hair and makeup is already posted up at the Irish bar. Devon Emery is our president and our shows of production of Morning Brew. Great. So, Daniel, let's run it back tomorrow. Yamava Resort and Casino at San Manuel is California's number one entertainment destination for today's superstars. Catch the Jonas Brothers return to the Yamava Theater stage on April 30th, the powerful vocals of Demi Lovato on May 17th, and the signature Southern Carlin. Rock of Eric Church on July 19th.

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