Morning Brew Daily - What Biden Dropping Out Means for Markets & The IT Outage That Halted Almost Everything

Episode Date: July 22, 2024

Episode 370: Neal and Toby discuss Joe Biden dropping out of the 2024 Presidential race and throwing his support behind VP Kamala Harris. The guys explain how this will impact markets, fundraising, and the significance of Biden releasing the statement on 'X' before anywhere else. Next, the biggest global IT outage ever happened over the weekend after an update from CrowdStrike went wrong and took out airlines, banks, 9-1-1 call centers and much more. Also, 'Twisters' raked it in at the box office and Bruce Springsteen is officially a billionaire. Then a Chinese company is creating AI Avatars to mimic deceased loved ones. And finally, what we are watching for this week. Checkout https://beehiiv.link/morning-brew-daily and get a 30 day free trial and also 20% off 3 months with code BREW Get your Morning Brew Daily T-Shirt HERE: https://shop.morningbrew.com/products/morning-brew-radio-t-shirt?_pos=1&_sid=6b0bc409d&_ss=r&variant=45353879044316  Listen to Morning Brew Daily Here: https://link.chtbl.com/MBD Watch Morning Brew Daily Here: https://www.youtube.com/@MorningBrewDailyShow 00:00 - Intro 02:50 - Joe Biden drops out 08:30 - Global IT Outage 14:30 - Winners of the weekend 21:00 - AI Avatars 24:00 Week ahead Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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Good morning, Brew, Daily Show. Neil Fryman. And I'm Toby Howe. Today, President Biden drops out of the presidential race. What comes next? Then, now that the blue screens of death have dissipated, what's been the fallout from the largest global IT outage ever? It's Monday, July 22nd. Let's ride. I got to catch my breath. The last week has had enough news for an entire century. Just to recap, since last Saturday, former President Trump narrowly survived an assassination attempt. He then nominated a vice president who once said he might be America's Hitler. President Biden got COVID. Ken Griffin paid $45 million for a stegosaurus skeleton. A country singer performed one of the

worst national anthems in history at the home run derby. Friday brought the largest IT outage in history. Then on Sunday, Biden said he wouldn't run for president, adding even more mayhem to a presidential race that has seen plenty of it. July is supposed to be boring. Well, you forgot the biggest news from last week, actually, and that is the makers of of Hello Kitty reveal that Hello Kitty is not a cat. Yes, despite the whiskers, her ears, and her name, Jill Koch, the senior vice president of marketing at San Rio, the creators of the cartoon, told the Today Show that she's actually a little girl.

I feel like my entire world is turned upside down here. Truly, I mean, it looks like a cat. She looks like a cat, but she's not a cat. She's actually a human girl. But yes, what an insane week. Thank you guys for tuning in to the show every week. to stay up on everything. Now a word from our new sponsor, Beehive and Neil, this one hits particularly close to home for us. It does. Beehive is a newsletter platform built by one of the

earliest morning brew employees, Tyler Dank. Ah, Tyler, I overlapped with him for a little bit, but you were there in the trenches with him for longer than I was. Did you see him founding a company like this? I mean, Tyler built the tech stack that powered Morning Brew into the company that it is today. So yeah, he knows newsletters inside and out. So what you're saying is we wouldn't be here chatting it up right now on the biggest business news podcast in the world

if it wasn't for Tyler. Well, let's not give him a big head now, Toby. We'd have made it no matter what. But yes, if you're at all interested in writing or spinning up your own newsletter, Beehive makes it a breeze. We'll be telling you more about what Beehive has to offer in the next few weeks, but if you're interested in checking it out, head to

beehive.com slash brew. that's B-E-E-H-I-I-V-com slash brew to get a 30-day free trial. Then you can use code brew to get 20% off three months. Yamava Resort and Casino at San Manuel is California's number one entertainment destination for today's superstars. Catch the Jonas Brothers return to the Yamava theater stage on April 30th, the powerful vocals of Demi Lovato on May 17th, and the signature Southern Country Rock of Eric Church on July 19th. Tickets on sale now at yamava Theater.com, only at Yamava Resort and Casino, celebrating its 40th anniversary.

You in? Must be 21 to enter. How many times can we possibly say we live in unprecedented times? Well, at least one more because yesterday Joe Biden said he was dropping out of the presidential race in November. The decision comes after intense pressure from fellow Democrats to pass the torch following a debate performance that heightened concerns the 81-year-old couldn't be Donald Trump. in the election. Biden isn't the first president to not seek a second term after serving four years in office, but the timing is historic. No sitting president has dropped out of a race so late in the election cycle in American history, meaning whoever replaces him will have just over 100 days to secure the nomination, convince the country they can be a credible leader

and make their case against Donald Trump. And that person appears to be Vice President Kamala Harris. After bowing out of the race, Biden endorsed Harris to be president. And then one by one yesterday, influential Democrats lined up behind her. So while it's not a guarantee Harris will become the nominee, it's hers to lose. She's the first black person in Asian American to serve as vice president. And now she has the opportunity to become the first woman president. Toby, this wasn't exactly a surprise, but it was still shocking when you saw it happen. Absolutely shocking.

Our Slack channels were popping off over the weekend, as expected. The issue here is that this is very unprecedented. We literally have no idea how this process really works because no sitting president has withdrawn their re-election campaign just four months before voters go to the polls. It's less than a month before the Democratic National Convention. You have to go for the closest parallel. You have to go all the way back to 1968. That's when Lyndon B. Johnson announced he would not seek re-election.

But that was eight months before the election. So there's a lot more time for at that time, the Democratic Party, to regroup. So right now, like the word of the day right now is uncertainty everywhere from in the political sphere, but also in the markets as well. There's a lot of uncertainty around what will happen when the markets open this morning. So we'll definitely be paying attention to that. Yeah, there had been a growing sense that Trump would sail through to the presidential to the White House and Biden would just, you know, kind of limp along and he was pretty adamant about not about staying in the race. But it does seem like a lot of the money dried up wealthy supporters

of his campaign really closed their wall. It's just in the past month in July. They were expecting $50 million from these large, wealthy backers. And when they counted the checks, it looked like just $25 million came in. Big donors like George Clooney. I know he laughed when he wrote that op-ed in the New York Times saying that Biden should step aside. But he is a huge donor. He puts on huge funding raising events. And without money flowing in, the Biden campaign was really running on fumes. And they spent 93% of what everything they brought in in July. So it seemed like Biden was really backed into a corner and he made this decision. He did not really tell anybody before he did it. He told the White House staff at 145 p.m. And then at 146, that's when

he posted on X that he was stepping aside. Speaking of X, it is a big win for the platform because Biden did not go on a news network and announce it there. He did not tell a journalist or reporter that he was stepping aside. He just went straight to the source, posted a letter that he wrote directly on X. it's an awkward thing to do because Elon Musk, who owns X, has come forward and said, I'm contributing $45 million to a pack. Each month. Every single month to Trump. So that must have hurt a little bit using that platform.

But it does show that X has remained like the global center, the conversation. Obviously, that's where all the memes spawned as well. Let's go back to fundraising for a little bit, though. what happens to the $96 million that the Biden Harris campaign had raised, that actually does go to, they've converted it over to Harris. It's now, according to updated documents said that she now has access to those funds. If you look at, you've talked about big donors. If you look at small donations, they jumped after Biden exited. If you look at single day donations to the Act Blue Pack, there was a massive jump yesterday. On Sunday, they reached $59 million. That's up from just $7 million.

million dollars the day before. And if you go back to the day after the debate, small donations only totaled $20 million. So clearly there's a ground swelling of support around Kamala Harris in this new campaign that they're running. Totally. And let's talk about the markets for a second of the past few weeks or the past weeks since that failed assassination attempt. We saw what investors called the Trump trade, which was a rising dollar, rising small caps, smaller companies and a retrenchment of big tech companies and higher Bitcoin prices because Trump is just fully embrace that sector. Now we'll see what happens as the polls maybe show a tightening of the race between, you know,

Trump and Harris. They show Harris, you know, competing a little bit better than Biden in certain states. So we'll see what happens when the market's open this morning and seeing if that Trump trade starts to unwind just a bit. Also, real quick, just want to give a shout out to poor Wolf Blitzer. Literally an hour before Biden announced he was dropping out, the CNN anchor posted this picture of him. enjoying a wolf spritzer at a local restaurant, D.C.

It was a drink named after him, only to be dragged back into the studio shortly after because of the news. I think the lesson here is to never check your work email on the weekend. It's only going to ruin your afternoon. But yeah, the internet collectively was pouring out for Wolf Blitzer for having his weekend ruined. So before Biden dropped out, we totally thought that this was going to be the biggest story of the weekend,

and that is the fallout from the massive crowd strike outage that took down millions of Microsoft devices worldwide. It was widely billed as the largest IT outage ever. And industries from travel to healthcare are still recovering from the mass technical blackout. Just to recap for all of our Mac using listeners out there, the cybersecurity firm Crowdstrike put out what it thought was a routine software update to Microsoft Windows customers

early on Friday morning. But the update ended up containing a defect that brought millions of Microsoft Windows users to a standstill inflicting their devices with the dreaded blue screen of death. For some industries and employees, that just meant a surprise long weekend on a summer Friday. But other industries are still picking up the pieces from the outage. 38,000 flights were affected worldwide as some airlines resulted to writing hand-written boarding

passes. Traders at big banks couldn't execute orders, and many hospitals were forced to cancel some elected procedures or walk-ins. Neil, the fallout is falling out, bringing up questions about Microsoft size and scale because this out is highlighted just how many businesses and how many governments rely on Microsoft products. Do you remember we recorded this podcast Friday morning at 6 a.m. when this was just starting to percolate and we were just sort of learning a little bit about it.

We were laughing about the outage. You were like, oh, this is happening. We have no idea what's going on. And then over the course of the day, you realized the scope that this was literally the largest IT outage in history. the number that was released over the weekend that really has stood out to me is that Microsoft revealed in a blog post that just 8.5 million Windows machines were affected, and that might seem like a big number, but that's actually just less than 1% of its global footprint.

That's less than 1% of all devices that run on Windows 8.5 million, and it was enough to bring the global economy to a standstill. And I think that shows the reach of Microsoft. it also shows how critical some of these companies are to the functioning of our economy. And when they don't work, there's a massive cascading effect that can impact every single sector. You've just got to go down the line. Yeah. If that was the fallout from 1%.

I do not want to see what 2% or 10% looks like because you're right. And you know who instantly seized on this outage was FTC chair at Lena Kahn. She wrote on X that these incidents reveal how concentration can create fragile systems. Remember, she's been on this crusade against big tech. saying it's too big and it infiltrates too many aspects of her life. But then Microsoft fired right back and said the impact of today's outages was defined by the reach of CrowdStrike, not the reach of Microsoft. A spokeswoman said that.

So it is interesting because, of course, Lena Con is going to say, like, listen, this is what I've been saying. These companies are too ubiquitous across different sectors across parts of our life. But then Microsoft's saying it really wasn't our fault. Like it was Crowdstrike, the cybersecurity firm that did it. There is a little bit of a blame game. going on. And it does seem like Google searches for Microsoft Outage were bigger than CrowdStrike. But Microsoft Windows has been attacked repeatedly for years for having lax security practices.

And therefore, it needs to contract out with companies like CrowdStrike, which is a massive company. It's almost worth $100 billion before its stock price fell 11% on Friday. But it has 8,000 employees. There's a huge industry of, you know, servicing enterprise clients with cybersecurity. to protect against, you know, cybersecurity threats. You know, CrowdStrike is one. They're based in Texas. There's Palo Alto networks. There's Sentinel One.

So there's a huge industry here of these cybersecurity companies coming into corporate clients and being like, we can help you with your security unless we push and update with a corrupted file and it brings down the global economy. Let's be clear here, though. This was not a cybersecurity incident. It really was just a faulty update. But it did open the door to a lot of cybersecurity issues. A lot of major cyber defense.

agencies around the world were issuing all these warnings over the weekend saying that you're probably going to see this increased fishing activity trying to exploit the incidents because eventually people coming back online from the outage are definitely going to be especially vulnerable to hackers because if you're coming off the blue screen of death and maybe you get a link from someone posing as IT, you're going to be more likely to click it. So there is just a big push from cyber defense agencies going like, Please be aware, be on guard. This is when hackers love to prey on people amongst these moments of vulnerability after a global IT added show.

People, be smart. Be vigilant. If you see anything pop up in your inbox, it could be a scam. I think you've got to do a reprise of Toby's trends on these preppers. Because this is exactly, last week you did Toby's trends on the people, you know, prepping for Doomsday and for outages, exactly like this. There's a growing sense that our economy and our systems are just very fragile and that they're being held up by this one stool, one peg of a stool, which is a crowd strike content update. And so they're preparing for scenarios like this. And they might be on to

something because this seems like it could happen again. It wasn't necessarily a one-off incident. I mean, I was just AT&T's cellular service went all black, you know, earlier in February So, you know, we're all worrying about AI and in humanity and next generation technologies, but it really just does as a simple content update from a cybersecurity company was enough to send computers crashing all over the globe. Up next, it's time for our winners of the weekend segment. It's time to refresh your yard during spring backyard days at the Home Depot. Get low prices guaranteed on propane grills starting at $179, like the next grill 3-burner gas grill, or get $50 off the select Weber Spirit Grill

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While supplies last, ends June 30th, terms at AKA.m.m.S. College PC. Now for our winners of the weekend where Toby and I picked two things that sailed through the HOV lane while everyone else was stuck in traffic. You won the pre-show IKEA Bookshelf building competition, so you get to to go first. My winner of the weekend is Cinema Baby because it is back and it wasn't Oppenheimer or Dune 2

that brought it back. No, it was Glenn Powell in Jeans chasing down Mother Nature that made the movies feel like the movies again. Twisters the disaster flick follow up to the original 1996 Twister movie opened to $80.5 million this weekend. Good for the

best ever start for a natural disaster film in North America. It's also the third biggest opening of the year behind Inside Out 2 and Dune Part 2. Unsurprisingly, the film that takes place in Oklahoma performed very well in the area of the country most affected by tornadoes. The highest grossing theater in the country on Friday

was located in Oklahoma. It also shows the ascendancy of Glenn Powell as the movie star of the moment, but only in America. The Midwest-centric film is underperforming overseas. Still, this movie is fun, it's loud, and I'm still very much afraid of tornadoes. Me too, but my takeaway here is that, sequels have been crushing it. Go back to last year and there was an Indiana Jones movie.

There was another Ant Man. There were all these exorcists coming out. There are all these sequels coming out. And Bob Iger's CEO of Disney said we, I think people have sequel fatigue. I think they have superhero fatigue. We can't just keep pushing out these same stories. People are craving something original that turned out to not be true at all. I mean, just look at the box office this year. What is carrying it? Well, Inside Out 2 has collected $1.4 billion world wide. Dispicable B4 has taken in more than 500 million in just three weekends. The third Quiet Place film, the fourth bad boys movie. They were all successful. The second Twisters movie just continues the momentum that all we want is sequels, I guess. The Rotten Tomato score is 92 right now.

Clearly audiences are having a good time watching this. How about this, though? Twisters matched Oppenheimer. They came out exactly one year apart on the same day. They both brought in exactly 80.5 million dollars when they opened on the same weekend. I feel like we're hearing a lot less about Twisters or I don't know, it just feels a lot less big than Oppenheimer felt, maybe because obviously Barbie and Oppenheimer, Barbenheimer, but still, I have been seeing Glenn Powell everywhere. You literally cannot open social media without seeing him on some press tour, seeing some like Thirst Trap edit of him. So clearly Glenn Powell is doing, people are saying he's like Tom Cruise 2.0. He's the movie star of the moment. He really is. My winner is Bruce Springsteen

because the boss is now a billionaire. Yes, Bruce got the Forbes stamp of approval over the weekend, with a publication calculating he has a net worth of $1.1 billion. And I suppose when you release 21 studio albums and seven live albums sell 150 million albums total when 20 Grammys read a bestselling memoir, sell out 236 Broadway shows, win an Oscar and two Golden Globes, and over 60 years of performing. You're going to make quite a bit of money. Most of Bruce's fortune, though, was accumulated a few years ago when he sold his music catalog to Sony for more than $500 million, the largest ever deal for a catalog.

But Bruce Springsteen being a billionaire, it doesn't feel quite right. You know, growing up in a working class family on the Jersey Shore, his music expertly spoke to the struggles of the average person and the aspiration to do something greater beyond the confines of your hometown, which is why it resonated not just around the Garden State or even the United States, but around. the world. Toby, I really shouldn't even be using the past tense for Bruce because the man is still going strong. He is still going strong. I was fully prepared to have multiple Bruce Springsteen song references in there that I wouldn't understand. But thank you for not putting me on the hot seat there. But yeah, Forbes estimated that he's worth $1.1.1 billion and they also did call it a very conservative estimate. This is definitely a part of a growing trend of musicians making that step to billionaire status. A lot of it does come from some of these massive catalog sales that we've

even seeing, but also, I mean, you go down the list. It usually is from some other reason beyond just music that propels them to billionaire status. But Bruce Springsteen just has such a big body of work. He is such just an iconic figure in the industry that it is mostly on back of his musical talent that he did reach the how many four comic club. Yeah, I mean, and he's still touring. I mean, before the ERIS tour came along, Bruce Springsteen was the hot ticket. This show was, you know, the thing that everyone wanted to go to. And last year, he sold. He sold, more than 1.6 million tickets on his world tour. That generated $380

million in revenue. He plays for three hours. It's just a total marathon. He has so much energy. Toby, I know you're into like distance running and cardio. You should study Bruce Springsteen because I went to a show a few years ago at Gillette Stadium in Boston and you just like keep checking

your watch. You know, even if you, you know, the music is fine. I think he has some hits, but there's a lot of you know, intermediary stuff. But he just goes forever and he so much stamina. You're like, how is this guy doing? I mean, he's in the 70s. So kudos to Bruce. I mean, keep doing what you're doing. What a career. He's the boss for a reason. There has been a lot of debate as to what exactly the best use case for artificial intelligence actually is.

Yes, it can help you do your homework or generate surreal art, but in China, some companies are using it for a much more serious application, bringing your loved ones back from the dead. A company called Silicon Intelligence is creating AI chatbots that mimic a person's likeness and voice to digitally clone people who have died. This trend of resurrecting loved ones has become a pretty big industry in China specifically, especially around a major holiday to commemorate the dead in early April. Of course, the rise of so-called dead bots raises a whole host of ethical questions, should we be simulating real-life humans dead or alive? But with Silicon Intelligence's basic tier of digital avatar costing just about $30 and requiring less than one minute of high-quality video

and audio of the living person to train it. This niche of generative AI boom is only going to grow. With AI, I mean, death is not final. And this industry is booming. Like, it really is one of the biggest examples of people using generative AI in China specifically. And that's because the government is seen as controlling religion and spirituality. And you're not allowed to talk about death in public. It's very taboo. So this is seen as a way to grieve and mourn your loved ones in ways that you can't do in public life and the way the government doesn't allow you to do. And that's why it's just taken off there. You go on to any e-commerce website and you see dozens of companies hawking these products of creating a digital twin of someone who is deceased and, you know,

that way you can communicate with them. It's obviously a very slippery slope. And there are many, many ethical questions that, you know, I can't answer. But it does seem like this is a very popular thing in China. Yeah. And one of the key questions around these bots is how do you train it? Like, what data do you use to train a bot to interact like with you as a loved one would? And part of it is you just, the companies ask you to submit some of your memories of the person or some of the experiences that this person has lived through. But other companies just go straight to their social media profiles and just use the data of the stuff that they've put out. online to train them. Obviously, to make a truly life-like clone, you do need a very high volume of

data. And some companies say that if you want this, start preparing well in advance, like 10 years of data, would be something that is able to give you the best. Exhibit of your loved one. So if you are wanting to go down this path, like keep a daily diary of something that you'd of training data that you'd want to train these bots on. Yeah, some Americans, American companies have gone down this path before, but said maybe we shouldn't. I mean, in 2017, Microsoft filed a patent application for stimulating virtual conversations with someone who had died, but an exec later said they didn't do anything because he called it disturbing. And then there was a company that was using Chatchabit's technology to, that allowed

customers to the ability to talk with their deceased loved ones, and then Open AI terminated the platform's access to its technology, citing the possibility that would be used for emotional harm. So it does seem like U.S. companies have, you know, dabbled in this, and they just said, look, this is a, you know, an ethical quandary that we don't necessarily want to enter. There's so many other ethical quandaries with AI, and this is just another one that maybe they're just like, we don't want to, we don't want to even deal with this. Right. One company said a user texted the chat bot for 18 hours straight. They eventually ended up pulling that person's access to prevent addiction. And experts have warned that any attempts to, quote, resurrect the dead could create

confusion and stress and disrupt the grieving process. So there's definitely a long ethical road ahead for this to become a widespread technology. Yeah, I just think there's no doubt, though. We're already seeing it that AI will change our relationship with death and mourning and grieving and things like that. Finally, here's a rundown of the week ahead. The Secret Service Director Kimberly Cheedel is in the hot seat. She will testify today before a House committee on her agency's failure to prevent an assassination attempt on former President Trump during a rally in Pennsylvania. on July 13th, Congressional Republicans have been calling on her to resign, and Speaker Mike Johnson pledged the hearing would be must-see TV. Yeah, this is the hottest of hot seats right

now. Even amongst everything else going on right now, a lot of people will be tuning into this hearing. Yeah, and are you hungry for some earnings reports? Well, you're about to feast on them. This week, about one quarter of S&P 500 companies will release their Q2 financials, including Alphabet, Coca-Cola, Tesla, UPS, Visa, Chipotle, Comcast, GM and Southwest. And if you have room for dessert, the government will release two big economic reports, second quarter GDP on Thursday, and then an important inflation gauge on Friday. I'm stuffed.

Usually I have one or two companies I'm looking forward to, but it's in a quarter of the entire S&P, I'm fully booked here. I got nothing. All right, Nashville will be the center of the crypto universe when the annual Bitcoin Conference comes to town on Thursday. Former President Trump will deliver the keynote addressed consummating his recent love affair with the industry. and he's also hosting a campaign fundraiser on the sidelines with the priciest ticket going for nearly $845,000 a person.

There's some rumors going around that Trump will announce that Bitcoin will play a much larger role in the financial system. Some people are saying that he'll announce Bitcoin as a strategic reserve asset. Who knows how much that's true? But Bitcoin has run up about 5% in last few days in anticipation of this appearance at the Bitcoin conference. Yeah, it's a big deal. And over the last week, we saw pretty much every, not pretty much every leader, but like many leaders. in the crypto industry announced their support for Trump because he really has embraced crypto. And then let the games begin.

The opening ceremony for the Paris Olympics takes place along the Sen on Friday. And there's cautious optimism that this year's Olympics will revive flagging interest in the games. US TV ratings have been down for recent Olympics, which might be because they took place during COVID and at inconvenient hours for Americans. But this one seems to have a different energy. maybe that's because we've been talking about it for months, and I think it's going to be epic. I hope it's going to be epic because I love the Olympics so much.

I hate to see these ratings fallings. Hopefully we've left the pandemic behind a little bit. It's just a new era, and I hope Paris can pull it off because I just love the competition. I think so. They're really going just like all out for this, you know, this new type of opening ceremony, not in a stadium, but in a parade of boats along the river.

And there just seems to be a lot of hype. You got all the stars from the, American basketball team going and then obviously all of the other all of the other awesome sports track and field swimming like what are you most looking for to I always love the the track and field events I'm also the marathon because kipchogi is probably his last go around weirdly I'm I'm into the golf as well because we're just fresh off the open but yeah swimming track marathon golf those are my big four for sure all right let's wrap it up there thanks so much for starting your day with us and have a wonderful start to the week for any feedback on the show send an email

email to Morning Brew Daily at MorningBrew.com. Let's roll the credits. Emily Milliron is our executive producer. Raymond Liu is our producer. Olivia Graham is our associate producer. Eugenwa Ogu is our technical director. Billy Minino is on audio. Hair and makeup was really hoping to see the blue screen of death this morning. So disappointed. Devin Emery is our chief content officer and our show is a production of Morning Brew. Great show today, Neil. Let's run it back tomorrow.