Morning Brew Daily - What the Coming Fed Rate Cut Means for Markets & Logan Paul vs. Lunchables
Episode Date: September 18, 2024Episode 412: Neal and Toby preview the much anticipated Federal cut to interest rates after months of waiting for a green light. Then, Instagram automatically sets all teen accounts to private in an e...ffort to increase child safety on social media. Plus, Oracle has been quietly riding the AI wave, which has made founder Larry Ellison the 3rd richest person in the world. Very nice. Meanwhile, YouTube's dream team of MrBeast, Logan Paul, and KSI team up to take on the school lunch industry with their own packaged lunch. Next, Michael Kors admits selling handbags is hard, especially in the age of TikTok and Taylor Swift. Lastly, popular video game Flappy Bird makes its triumphant return, but without the blessings of its original creator. Subscribe to Morning Brew Daily for more of the news you need to start your day, share the show with a friend, and leave us a review on your favorite podcast app. To learn more about how Wise could work for your business, visit https://wise.com/business/ 00:00 - Liverwurst 3:30 - Federal Reserve makes its cut 9:10 - Instagram goes private for teens 12:30 - Larry Ellison moves up the billionaires ranking 18:15 - Michael Kors testifies to FTC 22:15 - YouTubers are going after Lunchables 25:50 - Flappy Bird returns Get your Morning Brew Daily T-Shirt HERE: https://shop.morningbrew.com/products/morning-brew-radio-t-shirt?_pos=1&_sid=6b0bc409d&_ss=r&variant=45353879044316 Listen to Morning Brew Daily Here: https://link.chtbl.com/MBD Watch Morning Brew Daily Here: https://www.youtube.com/@MorningBrewDailyShow Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Transcript
Discussion (0)
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Good morning brew daily show.
I'm Neil Fryman.
And I'm Toby Howell.
Today, Instagram is over being the cool parent
and has begun telling teens
your digitally grounded go to your room.
Then happy Fed Decision Day.
Are we getting a 25-point cut
or are we going big with 50?
It's Wednesday, September 18th.
Let's ride.
Happy Wednesday.
So a few weeks ago, you made
have heard us talk about a Listeria outbreak that affected millions of pounds of Boershead lunch meat
leading to nine deaths and a massive recall.
Well, the company finally found the root cause of the outbreak, Liverwurst.
According to a company's statement, they traced the contamination back to a specific production process
at a single Virginia facility that was used only for liverwurst.
And as such, Boershead made the decision to end its production of liverwurst for good.
Neil, pour one out for emulsified sausage made from spiced pork organs.
Well, Toby, maybe you don't remember, but Liverworth used to be a huge deal in the back half of the 20th century
when Dwight Eisenhower came back from World War II as the conquering hero.
He had this big parade and he had this big dinner with the New York City mayor at the time, LaGuardia.
What did they eat?
What was on the menu?
Liverwurst.
And then all of the boomers listening to this are probably thinking, oh, Liverwurst.
I had that for lunch with my sandwiches every single day in the 70s and 80s.
It is certainly faded from lunch tables and refrigerators as tastes have changed.
But, you know what?
I think that, you know, Borishead's not making liverwurst anymore,
but you might find more artisanal types of liverwurst making their way back to chakouterie boards as a type of renaissance.
And I looked it up.
Do you know what we should go get for lunch today?
I mean, it sounded like liverwurst.
I think we're going to go get liverwurst.
Cats' deli just down there serves a $24 liverworth sandwich, probably more meat than is an entire
pick.
I will stick to uncrustables.
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Today, it kind of feels like heading to the airport on a vacation you've been planning for months
because this afternoon, the Federal Reserve is set to begin cutting interest rates,
providing a much-needed economic boost for every American consumer and business.
It's been a long time coming.
Back during the COVID crisis in 2020, the Fed slashed interest rates to near zero to keep the economy
from melting down. But then, as
inflation soared two years later, the Fed jacked
up rates 11 times
to levels not seen since
2001 to bring prices back
down to Earth. We've been sitting at those
elevated interest rates for well over
a year, which has cooled the economy and
slowed hiring. The unemployment rate
rose from 3.5% last July
to 4.2% last
month, showing how those high rates have
put the brakes on the labor market.
And that has become a greater source of concern
to Fed Chair Jerome Powell
than inflation. Cutting rates later today would be a sign that Powell has effectively declared victory
in his fight against inflation and is now more focused on preventing the economy from falling
into a recession. If he manages to pull that off, bringing inflation down from 9% without
sending the economy into reverse, Powell will have completed the mythical soft landing,
something that's happened only once in U.S. history. Experts say he'll be a first ballot
Federal Reserve Hall of Famer should that pan out. But there's a long,
way to go before the induction ceremony, the journey still begins now. Right. And the first step of the
journey is deciding between a 50-point cut or a 25-point cut. The standard kind of 25-bases point
cut is thought to be more standard. 50 is a lot more aggressive. And people who follow this
are pretty split down the middle of what is going to happen today. Investors are actually
betting more heavily on a 50-point cut that are putting about 2-1 odds that it will be that 50-bases
point reduction. Meanwhile, a lot of analysts are saying, no, we think we're going to go in with
the more standard 25. So regardless of its size, today's rates cuts are very important. They're
either going to make borrowing cheaper for consumers, for businesses, and hopefully
ripple through the economy and kind of juice business activity. Right. The whole point of a rate
cut is to lower lowering borrowing costs across the economy. The Federal Reserve doesn't set your
credit card loan rate or your mortgage, but it is that North Star that.
every bank looks to when they set interest rates. So when the Fed lowers interest rates, it does
have massive ripple effects across the economy. We have mortgage rates that are still over 6%. Your
credit card interest rate is probably big. Businesses have been putting off big purchases of
machinery and equipment that they have to finance. Anything that you have to finance has been so
hard to get done because as soon as you're about to sign the dotted line, you look at the interest
rate and you're like, well, I don't think I'm going to do this. I'm going to hold off.
So the idea of an interest rate cut is to just lubricate economic growth across the economy,
get more people spending because they've had this stuff in their, they've had a lot of money
in their savings accounts.
And maybe once the Fed lowers interest rates, you get lower yields on your savings.
And you're like, well, I might as well spend.
And that sparks.
The economy gets people hiring again.
So that's the whole concept of how the mechanics of interest rates works.
And whether it's a 25 or 50, it is going to be the start of a series of interest rate cuts.
And that'll be one of the key things to watch today, what the Fed says about going forward for the rest of the year.
Let's also talk about the housing market, too, because that's just been a huge kind of issue throughout this entire rate hiking cycle.
Mortgage rates have already started to come down a little bit in anticipation of rate cuts.
But while lower mortgage rates do make buying a house more affordable, you have to remember, too, that the whole reason that the Fed is cutting rates is because the economy has been slowing.
So it has really clogged up the housing market.
So hopefully more supply will be freed up because so many homeowners have just been putting off selling their houses.
Because if you sell, you got to buy a new one.
And then you have to go through that whole process of taking out a mortgage at this sky high rate.
But there's also some homebuyers will probably be waiting for rates to get even lower.
So maybe it won't put all the supply on the market like people are hoping.
Because if we know the Fed is going to start this.
rate-cutting cycle. So if you say, like, maybe if I just hold out a few more months,
I can get an even lower rate. So you're not necessarily going to see this massive supply for you,
but you will see a little. And in general, the economy's response to an interest rate cut
does not take, takes a long time to show up. And that's why the Fed usually does 25. It's because
let's do the standard one and then see how it plays out. And we can adjust from there. That's why a 50
basis point cut is seen as a very aggressive maneuver. So,
25 is, you know, standard. Let's see how it plays out. Milton Friedman, the famous economist,
called changes in Fed policy, a water tap that you turn on now and that then only starts to run
six, nine, 12, 16 months from now. So this is, like I said, this is the start of a long journey,
but it could lead potentially to a soft landing where you bring inflation down and you don't
send the economy into a recession, which is so hard to do, giving all of the crazy variables
and different forces at play in the U.S. economy.
Let me hear it now.
25 or 50?
I think we're going 50.
You're going 50.
I think we're going 50 because I think the Fed wants,
I think the Fed wants to minimize risk.
And I think they are more concerned with the labor market tanking than inflation
ticking back up.
And that would point to a 50 basis point risk.
I know it's like minus 200 now, but I'm still, I still think it's smart money.
Fine.
I'm taking 25 just so I could be the opposite of you.
If you were a teenager when Instagram was first becoming.
popular, the biggest issues you face were whether to use the Valencia filter or X Pro 2,
but Instagram has turned into a more dangerous platform for young people in the years since,
a fact that Instagram itself is finally addressing head on.
Yesterday, the app announced new changes that will designate all new and existing accounts
set up by users under 18 as teen accounts and automatically make them private.
The Jurassic moves comes in response to years-long pushback from parents and advocates who
said their kids were receiving age inappropriate content and were exposed to child predators.
Some of the new features included in the update are restricted DMs that limit the people who can
message teens and a sleep mode that silences notifications between 10 p.m. and 7 a.m.
The app will also restrict who can tag you in photos or mention you in comments if you are under 18.
Neil, turning the default account setting to private is a start as there are as are these other
features it's layering on. Do you think Instagram is making good strategy?
towards protecting their youngest users.
I think that this is one of the biggest safety moves for children that any social media
company has done.
And meta is not necessarily making them voluntarily.
There's immense pressure on Instagram across a lot of social media companies, but Instagram in
particular because these whistleblowers have come out who have worked there saying that
Mark Zuckerberg, the CEO and other higher-ups at the company knew that Instagram was
harming specific populations of teens, and they did not do anything about it.
There have been multiple lawsuits filed by attorneys general all over the country.
Mark Zuckerberg was hauled into Congress, and he, in this dramatic episode, he apologized
to the parents of teens who were harmed by social media.
And I think the fact that they're doing it because that is really critical because
it's not good for their business, because they're in a really tight race and competition
with TikTok and Snapchat for the next generation of users
and putting, doing these policies which may not sit well with teens
to make them private by default,
probably will make some of these teens look to other platforms.
And Adam Mosteri, the head of Instagram,
acknowledged that it would be bad for engagement
and user retention in that 13 to 17-year-old demographic.
But I think it's just emblematic of the pressure they're facing.
I also, the question that immediately came to mind
for a lot of people is how can you enforce this?
Can't you just lie about your age when signing up?
And Instagram is kind of boosting up its safeguards around that.
People who attempt to change their age from under 18 to over 18 already have to,
one, record a selfie, upload their ID, and then also have another user vouch for their
age.
They have these safeguards built in already.
But then they're also saying, hey, we can take things a step further.
They're going to use AI, of course, to scan for maybe signals that you are.
not the age that you say you are.
One example that it cited was that
if you say you're over 18, but then someone
comes on your picture
and says, happy 14th birthday,
then the Instagram app will
pick up on that. So they're saying that you
have to take this multi-layered approach because
of course it is very difficult to enforce
if people are the age they say they are in the app.
If you have Larry Ellison on
your business fantasy team, you are off
to a scorching start to the season.
The Oracle co-founder is
racking up win after win this month, thanks to his tech giant soaring stock price, which is up
more than 21% in September. On Friday, Ellison briefly became the second richest person in the
world, topping Jeff Bezos, because of how much his $200 billion fortune is tied to the Oracle
rocket ship, the company he helped start in 1977. Ellison owns 40% of Oracle stock, which is a
ginormous amount for a $460 billion company, and his net worth has more than doubled
over the past two years as Oracle's star has risen. Oracle may not be a company you encounter
on a daily basis, but it's proved to be one of the under-the-radar winners of the AI boom. It builds
massive data centers, fills them with acres and acres of Nvidia GPUs, and rents out the computing
infrastructure to companies that want to put their data on the cloud or train AI models. And that
has been a recipe for success. Last week, Oracle reported that quarterly revenue grew 7% from the
previous year, and its key cloud infrastructure unit jumped 45%. And that has made Ellison at 80 years
old, one of the richest people on Earth. My favorite Larry Ellison fact is that at the end of
2010, Oracle was valued at just under $90 billion and he owned right around 27% of the company,
but then you just heard Neil say that he owns over 40% now. So how the heck does that happen?
Well, since 2011, the company has been spending a lot of money on stock buybacks, which is something
a lot of companies do. They spent around $155 billion on buybacks, which reduced the amount of shares
outstanding from over $5 billion to around $3 billion. Ellison, however, never kind of participated in
that buyback program. He never let his shares be diluted. So his stake actually climbed from 27%
ownership to 43% ownership, which you are right. It is an insanely high number for a company of that
size. Yeah, I mean, and Oracle just seems to be really well positioned for this
AI Revolution right now. Ellison and
NVIDIA's CEO, Jensen Huang, are
very buddy-buddy. They had
dinner together last
week, and Oracle's just buying
an obscene amount of these GPUs
that are used to train AI models.
But right now, Oracle is going up against
Microsoft Azure, Amazon
Web Services, Google Cloud, the three
cloud providers that are at the
top of this space, but Oracle is finding
a, dare I say, a niche, I said I would
never say that word. It's finding a niche for itself
as a more flexible, smaller provider of cloud services,
and it's building these data centers all over the country.
And Larry Allison can't really talk about anything else on these earnings calls
except how big these data centers are.
They're building a nuclear reactor in one because of all the energy that they consume.
He said, he went to Jessin Huang of Nvidia and said,
I'm begging you to take my money.
Like, please just give me your GPU so I can make these data centers
because he says the demand for AI.
I know that's been a huge theme over the past couple of earnings seasons.
is, are we seeing that the AI, you know, talk is leading to actual profits?
And Larry Ellison, from his perch as Oracle CTO right now, is saying, I don't see any demand
flagging for AI.
It's a good niche to be in right now, for sure.
Up next, why Michael Coors is making its case to the FDC that it's just not that cool anymore.
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How many trials have you heard about
where lawyers rolled out carts of dozens of hand
bags to present in the courtroom? Well, you're going to learn about at least one. The trial with
the handbags is an antitrust trial over the future of the handbag industry. Coach Parent Tapestry
and Michael Cor's owner Capri want to merge in an $8.5 billion deal, but the FTC is trying to block it
over concerns of market concentration, setting up a trial that is wrapping up today. The merger between
Tapestry and Capri, if approved, would create the fourth largest luxury goods company in the world,
and unite six iconic brands under a single umbrella, Tapestries Coach, Kate Spade, and Stuart
Weitzman, with Caprize Michael Coors, Versace, and Jimmy Chu. The companies say the deal is
necessary to scale up and compete in the fast-moving world of fashion, where trends are in one day
and out the next. The FTC counters that the tie-up would reduce competition, raise prices for
consumers, and leave employees in the lurch. It specifically called out the risk of combining
coach and Michael Coors, two brands, it says, go head to head in the accessible luxury handbag
market. Toby, we've seen Biden's antitrust enforcers try to block murders in tech, airlines,
supermarkets, and now handbags, but is it burking up the wrong tree?
Well, well played. Yeah. So it's, again, whenever we have these antitrust trials,
it usually comes down to how are you defining the market? FTC says that it will give tapestry
a dominant share in this accessible luxury handbag market, which made attorneys for
Tabasreen Capri fireback saying that that is not necessarily the market that we are competing
and we're competing against everyone from the pricey luxury handbags all the way up to like
the Burkins of the world, all the way down to people who shop online for their clothes and shop on
second-handed marketplaces. They just define it as the entire handbag marketplace.
One thing that Capri lawyers can kind of point to and say like, hey, we're not doing that
well is their stock price. It's falling about 24 percent so far this year.
compared to the SMPs up 18%.
And then Michael Kores himself went before the court
in saying that he and his company
have been struggling to try and remain relevant.
He spoke about how brands can rise and fall
based off just TikTok trends.
And then he also called out celebrities
like by name Taylor Swift and Beyonce saying
that if one of a up-and-comers bags appear on one of their arms,
it can sell out in minutes and crash the site.
So he's saying how can there be antitrust concerns
and this handbag monolith that they speak about
if he is struggling to keep his brand cool and hip with the youths.
Right, and the government called up an economist named Lauren Smith in testimony last week.
This was their big key witness.
And he said he ran the numbers and he dispels what you just said.
And he said, actually, Michael Coors and coach do go up against each other
in this accessible luxury handbag market where the price point is around $150.
And there actually is a particular market.
They're not competing with the very viral TikTok handbags or the Trader Joe's Tots or the
LVMHs of the world.
And he said if this tie up were to go through, prices for consumers would rise 15 to 17 percent
because those two would have a market share of 58 percent of the handbag market.
So it really is.
I know you love talking about this when we talk about antitrust.
It is about how you define the market.
And the market is much bigger, according to these companies.
and they are pointing at the big elephant in the room, which is LVMH, which is dominating luxury.
It's only taken a stranglehold even more and is pushing other brands like these American brands to the sidelines.
Yeah, it would stymie these kind of acquisition strategy that created LVMH in the process if the government wins in this case.
So it does have big implications for the LVMHs, the carings of the world.
Me personally, I'm sticking to my 299 Trader Joe's mini tote.
Mr. Bees, Logan Paul, and KSI are names that probably mean more to you the younger you are,
but the triumvirate of YouTubers are trying to turn those legions of young followers into legitimate streams of income
by teaming up to launch a luncheables competitor.
It makes more sense than you think.
Each creator has successfully created a food and Bev company in recent years,
Logan Paul and KSI with their rainbow-colored prime hydration drinks,
and Mr. Bees with his Feasibles line of chocolates.
Now they are putting them together to launch Lunchley, which is essentially a Lunchables dupe.
Lunchly comes in a similar shaped package with three versions to pizza, turkey stackums and fiesta nachos,
all of which include Feasibles, chocolates for dessert, and prime to sate your thirst.
This product launch elicited some strong reactions online with some criticizing the trio for using their audiences to serve up junk food to kids.
But the Lunchley team would be quick to point out that their version is healthier with less sugar and calories than crowsy.
Heinz's product. Whatever the result is, they've got quite the following to serve it to.
They do. I mean, Mr. Beast is the number one most followed YouTuber in the world.
He has over 300 million followers. And then these other guys have tens of millions of Instagram followers.
They've all successfully launched consumer brands. And I can't imagine the pitch meeting for this.
They go, hey, you make a chocolate bar. Okay, you make a hydration drink.
We can probably find some crackers or turkey somewhere. Let's all put them to get out of por's head.
Let's put them together and create this luncheables competitor.
And they find lunchebles in a very vulnerable position.
Kraft Hines on their recent earnings call said that both the brands of Capri, Sun and Lunchables,
Capri Sun goes in luncheables, were facing meaningful headwinds in the second quarter.
So those brands aren't doing so well.
And they think they can parlay their social media success to this consumer brand that's going to be in some pretty heavy-hitting retailers.
Dillins, Ralph's, Kroger, it's coming to Albertsons.
later this month. So they can get, with their
firepower, they can get onto store
shelves. And they're probably hoping that a kid
will be like, hey, I want that prime
instead of Capri's son, because the
kid has no, the kid has no
sort of attachment to Capri's son like we do.
But they do know about Prime.
But Prime and
Feasables a little bit have also been on the struggle
bus recently. Prime came out of the gate
very, very hot. There used to be lines
around blocks, reselling
the different flavors because it was just
so popular with kids. It was the,
the official drink of UFC also has a sponsorship with the Dodgers and Arsenal.
It recorded $250 million in sales in his first year.
But since then, it's faced a class action lawsuit alleging its drinks contain too much caffeine.
It also has a lawsuit about toxic forever chemicals.
The sheen has worn off a little bit.
Sales volume fell 11% in the first six months of this year, according to Beverage Digest.
So maybe that prime isn't as hot as it once was.
And then on the other side, Mr. Beasts has also faced some legal pressure.
He has this new series coming out with Amazon called Beast Games.
It's this competition game show.
And they have recently been sued by contestants with allegations of sexual harassment, chronic mistreatment on set.
So if you take the combined kind of legal issues and kind of public perception of these three YouTubers, it's not great right now.
So maybe they think putting them all together and this consumer package goods brand can help.
kind of boost all their sales by combining forces, but not a great time in Mr. Bees, Logan Paul,
KSI's world.
Let's end the show today with a blast from the past.
Remember Flappy Bird, the incredibly frustrating mobile game that took the world by storm about
10 years ago?
Well, after its creator, shockingly shut it down at the height of its popularity a decade ago,
it's coming back.
But it's not because the game's creator, Dong Nguyen, had a change of heart.
In fact, he posted on X for the first time since 2017 to let people know he has nothing to do with the new version of the game, saying, no, I have no relation with their game, I did not sell anything, I also don't support crypto.
So why did he say that last part?
Well, the game's revival is being spearheaded by a shady crypto-adjacent group called Game Tech, who snagged the rights to the game by filing a notice of opposition against Nguyen's trademark.
when Nguyen didn't respond in the allotted time,
the USPTO canceled this trademark,
allowing game tech to legally claim the name.
Neil, there was this fleeting moment in time
where it seemed like the OG Flappy Bird might be coming back,
but this outcome is a little less fun.
This has been quite the saga over the past week.
There was this big announcement that Flappy Bird is coming back.
There was this trailer.
It's getting a multiplayer mode.
And you're like, oh, my God, the nostalgia hit was crazy
from back when to when it was the most downloaded game in the iOS store in 2013.
It was the most, you know, and then a few months later, it was taken off the market.
Then some more information started to trick out, wait, is this just a front for a crypto project?
Why do I see people discovering things about a flap token and Solana, which is a cryptocurrency
on their website?
You look at who's leading it, and they are involved with NFTs, with around the meme D's nuts.
and you're like, whoa, this is not the flappy bird, I remember.
And then the final nail in the coffin here was the founder coming on saying,
I have nothing to do with it.
You go in and look how these people acquire the trademark to Flappy Bird.
And it certainly puts a bit of a fog around a comeback that was so hyped.
And this outfit, Game Tech, has been after the Floppy Bird name,
literally for a decade now in 2014, there was this outfit called Mobile Media Partners
that tried to claim the Floppy Bird trademark right after it was pulled from the
App Store. It is that claim was filed under the same address, same New Jersey address listed by
Game Tech and its paperwork for its 2023 legal efforts. So clearly they've been angling for this
Floppy Bird name for a long time though. But I just want to give some props to win the founder
of this app. He took it down when it was the hottest thing in the app world. It was making $50,000
a day for him. It was downloaded by over 50 million people. But he said that
Floppybird was designed to be this relaxed game that you play in a few minutes when you're bored,
but instead it happened to become an addictive product.
He said, I think it has become a problem.
To solve that problem, it's best to take down Floppy Bird.
It's gone forever.
To have the stones to do that when it's making you a lot of money,
he has gone down on internet lore as one of the, you know, one of the OG founders of that era.
So Floppybird is the new V2 is supposed to be coming out on iOS and Android in 2025.
and we'll see what that actually looks like.
Are you a big player?
I was...
You know what I actually was, was a collector.
My iPhone, I never updated it
because at the time when it was taken off
the app store, phones with Flappy Bird
downloaded were selling for literally upwards
of $100,000.
So I thought I was being so smart.
Of course, I've subsequently lost that iPhone.
I don't know where it was, but someone out there
maybe has an iPhone with Flappy Bird on it
and it's worth a lot of money.
All right, that is all the time we have.
Thanks so much for starting your morning with us
and have a wonderful Wednesday, Jerome Powell.
We believe in you.
For any feedback, questions, or comments on the show,
send an email to Morning Brew Daily at morningbrew.com.
And don't forget to share Morning Brew Daily with your friends,
family, and coworkers,
so you don't have to explain how interest rates work.
If you need some inspo, Toby, has you covered.
I want you to share today's podcast with someone who likes or has liked Liverworth.
See, this is a generational play here,
getting the parents and grandparents involved in MBB.
We've got to expand our listener base.
Let's roll the credits. Emily Milliron is our executive producer.
Raymond Loo is our producer.
Olivia Graham is our associate producer.
Eutrenowa Ogu is our technical director.
Billy Minino is on audio.
Hair and makeup won't be seen in public with a Michael Coors bag.
Devin Emery is our chief content officer and our show is a production of Morning Brew.
Great. Saturday, Neil, let's run it back tomorrow.
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the Jonas Brothers return to the Yamava Theater stage on April 30th,
the powerful vocals of Demi Lovato on May 17th,
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