Morning Brew Daily - What Trump Tariffs Mean for Prices & Fed Cuts Rates, but Mortgages Are Up?

Episode Date: November 8, 2024

Episode 449: Neal and Toby recap the Fed meeting through the lens of an incoming Trump presidency and whether Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s goal remains the same. Then, while the inflation rate has gone down, mortgage and borrowing rates continue to climb…what’s the deal?? Next, a recap of how the world economies are reacting to the election and Trump’s proposed plan of broad-based tariffs. Meanwhile, the Stock of the Week is the private prison business and Dog of the Week are US retailers. Lastly, a rundown of the biggest headlines heading into the weekend.  00:00 - Encumbered incumbents? 2:45 - The Fed cuts rates again 7:00 - Mortgage rates rising 10:20 - Global economies react to Trump’s win 16:45 - Stock of the Week: Prison business 19:10 - Dog of the Week: Retailers 23:00 - Other headlines Subscribe to Morning Brew Daily for more of the news you need to start your day. Share the show with a friend, and leave us a review on your favorite podcast app. Download the Yahoo! Finance App (on the Play and App store) for real-time alerts on news and insights tailored to your portfolio and stock watchlists. Get your Morning Brew Daily T-Shirt HERE: https://shop.morningbrew.com/products/morning-brew-radio-t-shirt?_pos=1&_sid=6b0bc409d&_ss=r&variant=45353879044316  Listen to Morning Brew Daily Here: https://link.chtbl.com/MBD Watch Morning Brew Daily Here: https://www.youtube.com/@MorningBrewDailyShow Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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Good morning, Brew Daily show. I'm Neil Fryman. And I'm Toby Howell. Today, Jerome Powell cut interest rates for the second time this year. So why are mortgage rates going up? It's Friday, November 8th. Let's ride. Good morning, and I hope you all have a better Friday

than incumbent political parties this year because they've seen a historic wave of defeats. Here's a wild stat I saw in the Financial Times yesterday that would be enshrined in the Neal's numbers, Hall of Fame. After the Democrats lost on Tuesday, every governing party face an election this year, all 10 from the UK to France to Japan to the United States lost vote share. It's the first time this has ever happened, truly unprecedented. And while there are absolutely local factors at play, the one thing every country experienced over the past couple of years was inflation. So voters

appear to have said, my life has gotten way more expensive. People in charge, you're fired. I mean, it speaks to the viability of just framing yourself as an agent of change when you are going to the polls. And also the odd reality where maybe the macro economic indicators were pretty positive for a lot of countries. But on a more individual level, people were feeling that pinch of inflation. But, Neil, my main takeaway here is I'm really not liking this stat if I am a Chiefs fan or I'm a Boston Celtics fan because if the incumbents are losing, that means it could be a rough time for those two powerhouses. Now a word from our sponsor, Yahoo Finance. Neil, one of the best parts of Yahoo Finance is the buffet of information it provides you.

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details. As if this week didn't bring enough hugely consequential events, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates yesterday. It was as expected, a traditional quarter point decrease, which was smaller than the unusually large half point cut the Fed announced in September. By cutting rates again, the U.S. Central Bank is signaling it's satisfied that inflation is coming back to normal levels and is focused more on the job market. Lowering borrowing costs for consumers and businesses, which is what a rate cut does, hopes to keep unemployment at its currently low levels. So two rate cuts in the books, but an Agatha Christie-level mystery about what lies ahead, the re-election of Donald Trump promises to massively shake up the path of the U.S. economy, and so too, the Fed strategy, which must respond to those changes. For now, Chair Jerome Powell said it was too early to tell what Trump's economic policies would mean for the Fed because they haven't been implemented yet. At a press conference, Powell told reporters, we don't guess, we don't speculate, we don't assume about which campaign plans will be made into reality.

In the near term, he said, the election will have no effects on our policy decisions. Yeah, financial pollymakers try to view elections, not as these big, huge events, but more as just data points that allow them to feed into their decision making but won't change. it. But we do have to talk about the relationship between Trump and Powell, which actually stretches back to Trump's first term. Trump appointed Jerome Powell, but then quickly turned on him as he wasn't doing exactly what he wanted, didn't lower interest rates quick enough as Trump wanted at the time. Trump has called him an enemy and criticized him in the past. What has frustrated Trump about Powell is that he's pretty powerless over him. The president cannot on its on their own bring down rates. The Fed was granted independence from Congress

back in 1951 so that central bakers kind of do their thing and not have the influence of a politician telling them which way to conduct their rate cuts. And so that is why there's going to be this rocky relationship in the question of Fed independence has been a big issue in this Trump presidency. Yeah, and a reporter actually asked Powell yesterday whether he believed the president could remove him. And here's the clip. Do you believe the president has the power to fire or demote you?

and has the Fed determined the legality of a president demoting at will any of the other governors with leadership positions? Not permitted under the law. Not what? Not permitted under the law. Thank you. That was a mic drop. It was actually the funniest moment. Rarely do we see these moments from these Fed press conferences go viral, but that one absolutely went viral.

The line between the White House and the Fed could become blurry because Trump has the opportunity to appoint a Fed chair in 2026. And if he does oust Jerome Powell, which is looking likely that he might, that line might be a little blurrier because he might put someone in there who he thinks he could have more control over. So Powell is saying right now that, no, I cannot be ousted under the current law. He was very explicit about that. But potentially when his term ends in 2026, then we could see a more lenient Fed towards Trump's will. Meanwhile, Trump's policies are set to shake up the Fed's moves and its potential path forward for rate cuts, because Trump's economic policies, if they are implemented, are expected to raise inflation, the tariffs, the tax cuts, those are all going to stimulate demand, which could raise prices.

In a recent report, the bank Nomura forecast inflation would be 75 basis points higher in 2025 under a Trump presidency. That could absolutely shake up the path of Fed rate cuts. The expectation is that under a Trump presidency, there would be fewer rate cuts going forward because that would, because when you lower rates, you stoke inflation essentially. And so if there's already going to be inflation stoke, then the Fed might pause those rate cuts and lower them at a more gradual pace than they would otherwise. Which is such a bummer because right now the Fed's preferred inflation member dropped to 2.1% last month. That is just shy of the

Fed's 2% goal. So the central bank is trying to ease off the brakes that it has been applying to the economy over once inflation hit that 40-year high. So the road did just get a little bit bumpier ahead. Maybe that the rate cut kind of cadence that we are all expecting is going to be a little different. Moving on, so even though the federal funds rate is falling, would-be home buyers are not yet feeling the effects. The central bank lowered its benchmark rate by 25 points, as we just discussed, on top of its 50-point cut in September, and yet the average rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage has gone up since that first cut. It rose more than half a percentage point to reach 6.97% this week, according to data from

Freddie Mac released yesterday, and it might keep on climbing higher thanks to a recent Trump-inspired rise in the 10-year treasury yield. Even though the Fed has its scissors out and is dutifully cutting away to try to push down borrowing costs, mortgage rates are unfortunately outside its control. They are more heavily influenced by treasury yields, which themselves are more influenced by what the general outlook for the economy is. And since the economy looks like it will. continue to be strong, yields, and therefore mortgage rates remain painfully high for home buyers.

Neil, throw a Trump presidency into the mix where his tariffs and tax cuts are expected to reintroduce inflation and put even more pressure on the 10-year. You have a recipe for gravity-defying mortgage rates. Yeah, this is a shock to a lot of us because we thought, or I thought, hey, the Fed's cutting rates that's supposed to bring down borrowing costs. The mortgage rates have been so high for so long, freezing over the housing market. Finally, there's going to be some relief, people will be able to refinance and get those mortgages down around 5%. And it's just gone in the complete opposite direction and at an extremely large magnitude as well in the last five weeks, the rate has risen, the average 30-year fixed rate mortgage has risen 67 basis

points, which is the largest increase in two years. So not only has it just stayed level or gone up, it's gone up in a big way. And that is going to continue to give problems to people who want to buy houses or refinance or move. 30-year fixed mortgage rates were actually falling since May. So for a while, it looks like the Fed's rate cuts were kind of filtering through the market. But then that trend started reversing in early October, right around the time where prediction markets started indicating that Trump was going to have a good chance of winning the election.

So we were seeing a little bit of relief, but then it jumped right back up. Rates are up from right around 4 percent where they hovered for pretty much a decade going into the pandemic, but that 67 basis point rise has been extremely painful in the last five weeks. It was a total reversal from what you expected and what maybe the Fed was hoping for. Yeah, it's an interesting sign that the mortgage rates follow the 10-year yield and not the Fed's rate, or the Fed's federal funds rate, which the Fed controls. That is a short-term rate. The 10-year yield is 10 years.

It's a longer-term view of the economy, and this is a sign that investors think that the economy is going to hit the gas pedal and cause a little more inflation over the long term. One thing that you have to look at, too, is if mortgage applications are falling or rising as well, because mortgage rates do filter down to if people are buying houses or not, and mortgage applications have fallen for six straight weeks now. So you called it a frozen housing market. It did re-ice over. We're feeling like another mini ice age right now after it looked like things were thawing for just a little bit.

Yeah, home sales are on track for their worst year since 1995. Since Wednesday, we've talked a lot about how Trump's re-election will impact the U.S. economy. But unlike Vegas, what happens in America doesn't stay in America, and his victory will have, is already having massive consequences for the global economy. The top concern for other countries, both allies and foes alike, is Trump's proposed tariffs. He's pledged up to 20% tariffs on every single import coming into the United States, and 60% from everything coming in from China. If enacted, and that's a big if, they would be the highest tariffs the U.S. has had in a hundred years

and fundamentally reshaped global trade in a way we've never seen before. Analysts are already projecting a hit to other countries' economies should the tariffs get implemented, which is kind of the point. The U.S. puts up trade barriers to protect domestic industries at the expense of foreign companies. Your products become more expensive in the market. Ours become more attractive, is the theory. Two regions to watch are Europe and China, two of the U.S.'s largest trading partners. Europe exported one-fifth of its total goods to America last year, while China exported $500 billion

in goods to the U.S., about 15% of the value of all of its exports. Toby, the next four years could be one of dramatic upheaval for the world economic order. One thing to think about, too, is are tariffs going to be this real thing that are actually applied to blanket across Europe, across China, across Mexico, or is it going to be more of a bargaining tool because remember right now the U.S. economy is a heck of a bargaining tool. It is the only place in the world right now, especially among G7 peers, that is growing at a sizable rate right now. So if you were confronted with the possibility of maybe losing access to parts of the U.S. economy, that is a huge bargaining tool because of just how big of

a growth engine we are right now. So think of tariffs in two ways. One, they could actually happen or they might just be something that are brought to the table as a bargaining chip. Right. So let's run down maybe some countries and regions to talk about whether they are a winner or a potential loser in the new world order should these tariffs come to fruition. Start in Germany. Germany is seen as a loser in this new paradigm. I mean, cars are Germany's single largest export. The U.S. is the country's largest export market. So if there are tariffs on cars, and we know German honor makers are already feeling the pinch, they're already hurting Volkswagen. is set to close factories in Germany for the first time. So it seems Germany and Europe in general could take it an absolute hit if these tariffs come to pass.

Goldman Sachs already, after the election, Goldman Sachs was very quick to downgrade its GDP projection for all the 20 countries that use the euro. They're saying it's going to expand at 0.8% next year, which was down from 1.1% forecast previously. Yeah, Trump has come out and railed against the EU's 158 billion euro trade. surplus with the U.S. He's saying, especially last out of Germany, like you said, for selling it cars while not buying any in return. And then another thing that could make Europe a loser is that they could suffer this kind of added burden of increased defense costs if Trump kind of reduces

support for NATO, which is another thing that he has said he'd do. And then another country that absolutely is in the crosshairs is China. China was hit with the bulk of tariffs during Trump's last term. It was caught a little bit flat-footed. But, But right now, the Chinese economy is hurting. The only area that is booming or growing for them is those exports. It's making all these goods, especially clean energy products in its factories and shipping them abroad. Domestic consumption, people buying stuff in there, is down.

So China will likely have to flood its economy with stimulus if these tariffs happen. And it already is doing that. I mean, just overnight, I woke up to the headline that China announced a $1.4 trillion program to refinance local government debt, which is a huge stimulus in preparation for some of the economic pain that might happen in a Trump presidency. We would see a bit of a reshuffling, too, of where Chinese goods are ending up. You probably would see more of them end up in Europe, actually, because if tariffs are applied to China, then less are going towards the United States.

Another potential winner from that reshuffling is Brazil, because Brazil already has seen greater trade with China. If you go back to the first Trump administration, we saw that China replace. all of its U.S. soybean imports with Brazilian soybean imports. So that is something that will happen. This is a puzzle piece. Global trade is global.

So there are places that if the U.S. isn't trading with you anymore, maybe you go to Brazil or Mexico or another place. So it's not just blanket winners and losers. There will be just kind of a reordering of the world economy. Up next, it is Stock of the Week. Dog of the Week time.

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where Neil and I pick one stock from the week's news that promptly reset their oven clocks for daylight savings time and one stock that is just waiting for next year for them to be correct again. Neil, I won the pre-show game of who can run a marathon faster. So I am up first. Or just run a marathon period. A, faster, period is faster. And my stock of the week is private prison companies.

Sifting through some of the market reactions, there were plenty of winners in the best post-election stock rally we've seen in decades. But today we're zeroing in on private prison stocks, which got a huge boost in the wake of Trump's win. GEO Group, a real estate investment trust that specializes in the ownership and management of correctional facilities. is up over 50% this week, and CoreC Civic, one of the largest private prison operators, is also up nearly 60%. Why the big jumps? Well, a Trump presidency is likely to increase border security and detain more migrants crossing into the country illegally, which would lead to a jump in demand for detention facilities. Plus, a Republican-controlled Congress is likely to push for more funding for immigration and customs enforcement detention centers, leading to more opportunities

for a company like GEO and Core Civic. Neil, I would imagine a lot of people don't think about this industry much, but it does stand to benefit from Trump's immigration policies. Yeah, one of his core promises on the campaign trail, one that he could enact from day one, is the largest deportation in American history. There are 13 million immigrants in the U.S. illegally, and deporting them would be logistically very difficult and cost a lot of money. So if there is more of a budget set aside for doing this, which Trump and the Republican Congress would likely do, that is going to flow to these places that have detention centers.

And the American Immigration Council said that the cost of deporting these immigrants over a little more than decade would cost nearly $1 trillion. And so much of that money is flowing into the private sector because Gio did this presentation that said private companies provide 90% of the beds for ICE. processing. GO itself provides 42% of those private sector beds. So this is definitely a boon for the private prison sectors, not government-operated facilities. They do rely on these private operators. You know, I got to admit, it wasn't easy to find a dog this week. I can see why you foisted it on me. It was just incredible week for the stock market. But I think I found a group of companies that didn't go up and to the right like everyone else. Retailers like American Eagle, Crocs, and Five Below, whose shares all fell modestly this week.

And that's because of the threat of tariffs. There's that word again. American retailers that import their goods from China are expected to take a big hit from those tariffs. Because they're going to be the ones paying for them. So the choice is either eat those higher costs and dent your profits or pass along those costs to the consumer. And given those options, they're probably going to hike prices. And a study on Trump's tariffs released earlier this week, the National Retail Federation

projected that they lead to dramatic double-digit percentage price increases in almost All six of the retail categories the group analyzes, which is apparel, footwear, furniture, household appliances, travel goods, and toys. Higher prices mean shoppers already fed up with inflation are going to stay home. The NRF estimated that Americans would lose up to $78 billion in annual spending power due to the tariffs. Yeah, it's going to hurt consumers, going to hurt retailers. And then another thing I was looking at just the downstream effects is how are shipping companies and trucking companies actually faring as well?

because a lot of retailers are front-loading their imports right now. So you actually did see a jump in trucking stocks, domestic trucking stocks like J.B. Hunt, Schneider, National. They were in a rally mode on Wednesday. One part of the supply chain that we saw falling this week was ocean carriers. Mersk kind of had this big slump because a lot of people think that these tariffs are going to kind of clog up the global supply chain routes. So it was interesting to see how domestic trucking companies were doing well, a lot of these importers or a lot of these retailers are importing a lot of goods.

But on a wider scale, these shipping companies look like they're feeling a little bit of pinched as are going to feel some pinch going forward. Even within the retail industry, there are going to be winners and losers. Some of retailers have gone through this before. There were tariffs on Chinese goods that are still in place that were implemented by Trump in 2018. And what they did was what we talked about earlier in the show was they reshuffled their supply chains away from China. Steve Madden, yesterday, the fashion company, said that it was moving 45% of its production out of China to other countries in anticipation for these tariffs.

So if you are a company that is highly exposed to China, and that is why I called out five below, Crocs, Skechers, American Eagle, that's what Bank of America's highlighted those as particular retailers that have an especially high risk because they are exposed to China compared to other retailers that have less of an exposure to China. then you're going to start to see some winners and losers. And there's also the question of scale. Walmart and Amazon are probably going to be okay because they can eat those profits. They're big enough to accept that profit hit, whereas a smaller retailer might not be able

to have to pass along those costs to consumers, raise prices, people buy less from you. They go back to Walmart and Amazon. So it could lead to a, you know, rich, getting richer kind of situation. Yeah, analysts have said that companies do try to employ this range of strategies to try to mitigate the effects that these import taxes will have. But unfortunately, the general consensus was that there are no great tariff mitigation strategies. The challenge is to find one that is least bad. So I think that is kind of the approach a lot of these companies are taking to these potential tariffs. Think about a dollar store. Those were some of the two

worst stocks yesterday. Dollar tree, dollar general. You sell something, that's your whole value proposition, that you sell something for a dollar. I think it's $1.25 now. And you just, you can't raise prices, so your business and your profitability is going to get a hit from tariffs. All right, let's sprint to the finish this Friday with a sweep of some more headlines. Have you ever taken medicine to help out with your cold and found it doesn't work? Well, turns out it actually doesn't work. Yesterday, the FDA proposed removing a common ingredient in over-the-counter cold medicines after a review found it was not effective.

The ingredient, phenylophrine, has long been a staple ingredient of products like Tylenol, mucinex, and Benadryl. But when taken in liquid or pill form, it doesn't do anything for nasal congestion. Yeah, this is making people who constantly have a stuffy nose feel very justified right now. So the history of phenolephrine is very interesting because it got FDA approval back in the 1970s, but it really jumped in popularity in 2005 because this legislation moved a similar decongestine, pseudo-fedrin, which in large quantities, if you've seen breaking bad, people know that it can make methamphetamines. that was removed from shells.

So then all of a sudden, phenolephrine was kind of thrust in the spotlight, even though for a long time, scientists have kind of said, we're not really sure if this works. It now looks like finally the FDA got its ducks in a row. And so, yeah, if your nose has been stuffy and isn't going away, now you know why.

ChatGBT-GPT might be dropping the GPT soon. OpenAI founder Sam Altman tweeted out a link this week that simply reads chat.com that redirects to its company's chatbot. chat.com is actually one of the oldest domains on the internet registered all the way back in 1996. It is also one of the most expensive. HubSpot's co-founder, shout out HubSpot for sponsoring my marathon, actually acquired Chat.com for $15.5 million last year, making it one of the top two publicly reported domain sales of all time. And he confirmed that he sold it to OpenAI

earlier this year for a price greater than that. Neil, do we think spending over $15 million on a domain is worth it. Well, let's remember that OpenAI just raised $6.6 billion. I can't do the math in my head, but $15 million out of $6.6 billion is probably not going to register on the balance sheet, but they didn't even pay cash, it seems. The HubSpot guy said that they gave over shares equity in the company in exchange for chat.com instead of actually just writing a check for it. So I don't know.

Would you rather have $15 million in the? the bank or $15 million of equity in Open AI. I would have equity in OpenAI for sure. I would not spend either of that, the equity or the $15 million, on chat.com though. I don't know. ChatGBT.com is a plenty fine domain name. Yesterday, police urged residents of Yemisee, South Carolina, to lock their doors and windows after dozens of monkeys escaped from a medical facility Wednesday night. 43 Reesis macaque monkeys escaped from the facility run by the company Alpha Genesis

when a new employee failed to fully shut an enclosure. When one bolted out the door, the others followed, follow the leader style. The police chief said the monkeys, all young females, did not pose any danger or health risks, and that employees, quote, have eyes on the primates and are working to entice them with food. That'd work on me. It would work. Authorities have set up these traps. They're using thermal imaging to try to locate these monkeys.

I think this is the start to Planet of the Apes, at least the James Franco version. Alpha Genesis also is not the first time this has happened to them. Similar incidents have occurred back in 2024, in 2016. These monkeys are just extremely smart and extremely able to escape. And so now we got a lot of them running around South Carolina. Breaking news, Rachel Gunn, aka Ray Gunn, aka the Australian break dancer who danced so badly in the Olympics that she instantly turned into a meme has retired from breaking.

The scrutiny and backlash she received after her unique routine went viral, ultimately made it difficult for her to approach future battles, leading to her decision to hang up her track suit and retire from competing. Neil, a bit of a sad ending for Ray Gunn to go out like this. It was, but she was a star long enough to become a Halloween costume. I saw a lot of Rayguns out there, so she can always hang her hat on that. Well, that is a wrap on our shows for the week. What a week it was. Thanks, as always, for starting your mornings with us, have a great Friday and an even better weekend. For any questions, comments, or feedback, send an email to Morning Brew Daily at Morningbrew.com. And if this podcast has helped you get a better

understanding of the election results this week, don't keep it to yourself. Share it with a friend, family member, or coworker who could also benefit. If you're drawing a blank on that, Toby's here with his daily recommendation. I want you to share the podcast with someone who thought this was a fast week. We had a debate within the MBD crew. Neil and I thought this week flew by, but other people in the office thought otherwise. So share it with the fast week people but also ask around what people thought and maybe email us fast week or slow week. Let's roll the credits. Emily Milliron is our executive producer. Raymond Loo is our producer. Olivia Graham is our associate producer. Eugenwa Ogu is our technical director. Billy Minino is on audio.

Hair and makeup is coming out of retirement. Raygun, are you next? Devin Emery is our chief content officer and our show is the production of Boring Brew. Great show today, Neil. I wish you all well. All. Pay off your home, travel for life, drive a Ferrari. In celebration of the world premiere of the Monopoly Big Board Buckslot machine by Aristocrat Gaming, Yamava Resort and Casino at San Manuel is giving one person a $1.6 million dream package. The biggest prize in Yamaba's history. Club Serrano members can earn daily instant prizes and secure a spot in the finale May 29th.

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