Morning Brew Daily - Why College Kids Can’t Find Jobs & New Wegovy-Like Drug for $199/mo

Episode Date: May 21, 2024

Episode 327: Neal and Toby examine how the latest jobs report may look promising, but not particularly for college graduates who may struggle with finding a job. Then, good, bad, and ugly news: the cargo ship cleanup at the Baltimore bridge crash site, OpenAI is changing its voice, and Red Lobster files for bankruptcy, respectively. Next, Hims & Hers Health is getting into the weight-loss drug game with their Wegovy-like shots. Also, New Caledonia is a hot battleground for independence and nickel reserves. Lastly, Neuralink gets clearance for its 2nd patient.  Visit https://www.sage.com/morningbrew for more! 00:00 - Check out Brew Markets newsletter! 2:45 - Fresh out of college kids have it rough 7:00 - Baltimore cargo ship gets moved 9:15 - OpenAI ditches AI voice 13:00 - Red Lobster files for bankruptcy 15:00 - Hims & Hers makes their own Wegovy 18:45 - Nickel fight in New Caledonia 21:45 - Neuralink cleared for 2nd patient Get your Morning Brew Daily Mug HERE: https://shop.morningbrew.com/products/morning-brew-daily-mug?utm_medium=youtube&utm_source=mbd&utm_campaign=mug Listen to Morning Brew Daily Here: https://link.chtbl.com/MBD Watch Morning Brew Daily Here: https://www.youtube.com/@MorningBrewDailyShow Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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pwc.com slash US slash brew AI. That's pwc.com slash us slash brewAI. Good morning brew daily show. I'm Neil Fryman. And I'm Toby Howell. Today, fresh college grads are open to work on LinkedIn, so why can't they find any jobs? Ben, remember the open AI voice that came out sounding a lot like Scarlett Johansson?

Well, the real Scarlett Johansson is none too pleased about it. It's Tuesday, May 21st. Let's ride. Okay, to start the show today, I want to tell you about. about a new newsletter Morning Brew Launch yesterday. It's called Brew Markets, and it covers, you guessed it, the stock market. Neil, you have been hard at work with the Brew Markets team developing this new product. It comes out five days a week right after the bell. Who would you say this newsletter is four, and what can people expect if they sign up?

Well, it's definitely four people for whom stock of the week, dog of the week, is their favorite Morning Brew Daily segment. It's intended to provide active traders or those who want to be people who are on their Robin Hood a couple times a day. with a brief summary of the day's market moves along with expert opinions, practical tips, and markets education in just a five-minute read. And let's just go through yesterday's edition, for example. They talked about one of the most prominent bearish analysts lifting his target for the S&P 500, which is good news. And then whether surging copper prices are on the verge of collapse and hymns and hers getting

into knockoff weight loss drugs and what that means for their stock, which is also what we're going to be talking about on this show a little later. Yeah, I loved the first edition. It just goes one level deeper than maybe any other Morning Brew product has gone before. So it is for someone who would enjoy Morning Brew Daily, and I think you would enjoy Brew Markets as well. The easiest way to sign up is just pull out your phone or computer and Google Brew Markets were the first thing that pops up and you can subscribe using that link.

Now let's hear a word from our sponsor, Sage, not the herb, but a tool that saves finance professionals a lot of time and money. Today, I want to talk directly to you, the finance professional. You are both the engine that powers a business and the glue that you. keeps things together. But oftentimes you might be stuck in neutral, bogged down by manual tasks, instead of doing what you do best, which is adding strategic value across the business. Enter Sage. It's been in business for over 40 years, helping people like you have a greater impact on your business by automating some tasks. More recently, by using AI, which can help

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spirit grill and bring big flavor to your backyard. Then set the scene with Hampton Bay string lights that bring it all together. Shop spring backyard days for seven days at the Home Depot. Now through May 6th. Exclusion supplies to homedipo.com slash price match for details. Class of 2020 high school grads, you all have it rough. You miss walking in 2020. And in 2024 nationwide protests have disrupted your graduations again.

But this so-called real world that awaits you is once again testing your medal. The youth leaving college are entering a tough job market. On the surface, the numbers look good, low unemployment, good jobs growth in some sectors like health care, but finance, consulting, tech jobs, you know the jobs that you feel good putting on your LinkedIn profile. Those are getting harder to come by. Employers are hiring at their slowest pace of the last 10 years, even excluding the major dip that occurred during the pandemic. An entry-level hiring in particular is projected to fall by 5.8% in 20%.

2024 compared to last year. Combine that with the fact that less workers are leaving their jobs to in glass stores data showing that confidence among entry-level workers is at its lowest level since 2016 makes a lot of sense. Neal, it's just been body blow after body blow for this particular class. It really has. You're seeing a big bifurcation in the job market right now, and you said overall it's healthy, but look at where the jobs are coming from the job growth. It's in sectors like leisure, hospitality, and retail. Those are driving a lot of the gains. And if you're a college grad with a fancy degree that you spent a couple hundred thousand dollars on, you're not looking for a part-time role. You're looking for something in the white

collar space professional services where you can, you know, sort of put your degree to use. And those white collar entry-level jobs and professional services in tech, in consulting, are the ones that are just not really hiring right now. Software development job postings are down 30% this year compared to less. So this is a tough job market. If you are looking for that role at a Google, a meta, an Amazon, or an EY, or Deloitte. Yeah, it felt like just a couple of years ago, seniors were able to leverage multiple job offers, negotiate higher compensation. That is just not the case anymore. It is because Big Tech is hiring less, but it's also because the roles that

big tech is hiring for are a lot more to do with AI these days. And that's just not a great fit for entry-level workers because most of these AI roles require some additional years of experience. But it could also be that the technology itself is removing the need for some entry-level workers, which is a little bit of a scary thought that we've been warned about that maybe AI is already coming in, making these entry-level roles a little bit more redundant than they have been in the past. So it is just crazy that even it gives shades of the time after 2008, 2009, when a lot of people in finance and whatnot started drifting to the tech sector because there was no one hiring

in finance. Now it seems like the opposite. A lot of people from the tech sector are drifting to other places like health care or finance that need these software development roles. Yeah, we've talked at a very high level so far. Let's get into some specific. So go to Rice University in Texas. In 2022, Meta Platforms was one of the top employers for Rice grads.

Last year, they didn't hire a single one. So that's just one example of how meta. I mean, they fired a couple, the tens of thousands of people. And they're not doing job cuts anymore, but they just aren't hiring at the pace that they used to. So if you just look at Rice specifically, that's one example showing how big tech is really just not hiring college entry-level positions as they had been. Yeah, and it just affects the entire psyche of a generation at this point. Like a lot of these articles we were reading were just about what it feels like to send hundreds of applications out into the void right now. A lot of

unanswered applications lead to a lot of pain. It lowers your expectations. And for some sense, it just gives even more ammunition to that argument that college was a waste of time and money. So I do think we're going to see some long-term effects of this specific job market being so tough on this specific class. Yeah, and one of the biggest trends we're seeing is Gen Z going into the trades, which doesn't require a college degree, and they're paying over $100,000 to get in. So, you know, I think that trend may only continue as these big tech firms and the big consulting firms to sort of slow down their hiring. New segment alert. Love a new segment. This one is called The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly, and Inevaly, and Indeval.

it, you'll hear one piece of news that's good, one that's bad, and one that's uglier than me crying while watching the opening montage of Up. Gotta start with the good, them's the rules. And the good news is that the ship that struck the Francis Scott Key Bridge in Baltimore causing it to collapse is on the move. After being stuck for nearly eight weeks, the dolly was being towed by tugboats back to the port. It began its journey from all the way back in March when it lost power and crashed into the bridge, killing six construction workers. Getting the dolly, stock is a big step forward in clearing a channel for ships to pass through and start the rebuilding process, which is expected to take more than four years and cost up to $1.9 billion. It's also relief

to the 21 crew members, mostly Indians, who have not been able to leave the ship this entire time. Yeah, it's, first of all, shout out to the tugboats. We're watching a video right now of the tugboats pulling this massive ship. And it just, those always give me, I just want to pat them on the back because they're doing such a good job and they're so small. But yes, You understand how tugboats can pull this massive ship? Yeah, he wants to go. Please ride in. The physics of it are incredible.

But yeah, this is just a huge side of relief for the Port of Baltimore. Around 20 ships are expected to arrive in the next week going forward. And we're finally going to see kind of a return to normal sea. They said they've seen bookings for the roll-on, roll-off vessels, which are the vessels that can carry automobiles, which is what the Port of Baltimore is definitely known for. So finally, it's just like this big unclogging, and it's a big relief, especially for those crewmen. members too have been stuck on board. Yeah, let's talk about a little bit about why they couldn't leave. First of all, they have visas that have expired. There were one-month visas in the United

States, so they can't technically get on U.S. soil. And at the same time, the U.S. has regulations and laws in place that require a cruise vessel to be on the crew because this is a big ship with a lot of machines, a lot of moving parts, and you need people on the ship to handle all of that. So, you know, something worse doesn't happen while the ship has just been stuck there. So these people have been on the ship for almost two months now for various reasons. And I think once this once it gets back to port, they'll be able to leave hopefully. And the FBI has a criminal investigation ongoing into the circumstances that actually contributed to the collapse. So they've taken the crew member's phone. So they're still under investigation for that as well.

Let's move on to the bad now. And it comes courtesy of open AI. Remember the AI voice assistant enrolled out last week that impressed people with its ability to converse naturally, but also creep people out because of how much one of the voices named Sky sounded sultry drawing comparisons to Scarlett Johansson's voice in the movie, her? Well, they already have pulled the plug on it. Things took a turn for the creepy when Scarlett Johansson herself jumped into a fray with a statement saying that Open AI had originally contacted her nine months ago about being a voice actor for the model, but she turned that off or down. Fast forward nine months later and she and her team were shocked and angered to hear a voice come out. That sounds just

like her. The statement she issued says she ended up reaching out to get legal counsel and sending Sam Altman multiple letters, which explains this sudden and reluctant U-turn from Open AI. Neil, probably a good call to just pull this voice off the market. Yeah, this is definitely a he-said situation. Honestly, it's the most bizarre. If you were like, what is the weirdest thing that could possibly happen? This is it. I think what both sides do agree on is that OpenA.I. did reach out to Scarlett Johansson. Sam Altman did confirm that. But OpenAI said they had a voice actor already on the books to record this particular voice, which is called Sky. And Scarlett Johansson is saying that Sam Altman asked her to license her voice to use specifically her

voice. And that's where this contention is happening. At the same time, Scarlett Johansson said that two days before this presentation last week, that Sam Altman once again reached out to her and asked her final time for her voice. This is extremely weird and it does not look good for Sam Alman in Open AI, which had said all of Open AI's leaders in subsequent interviews had said that Scarlett Johansson's voice had not inspired this voice and had nothing to do with it, but their reputation has taken a huge hit because it has become clear that it, at least in some respects, was involved. And Sam Alvin's not helping things because he tweeted her at the end of that announcement. Right. He's almost, he's pulling the Elon Musk playbook where he seems to

be like directly contradicting and undermining the things that his company is publicly putting out because yeah, when you tweet something like her, it's almost rubbing it in Charlotte Johansson's face saying like, no, we didn't use you at all, but here I am referencing the movie that you play a voice actor of an AI assistant. So yeah, and I just think that there's wide ranging implications for these AI chatbots that also even before the Scarlett Johansson situation came out, there's this investor at Menlo Partners who said that eight of the top 50 most use generative AI apps in the world are related to AI companionship. So when you release a voice that people are already drawing like attachment issues to or like they're saying that they feel very connected to,

that is something that you have to consider when you're rolling out like these AI voices. And so I do think that we've talked about super alignment and maybe the way that AI leads to the end of the humanity is just the fact that people find companionship with bots rather than each other. So I do think that was like a downstream effect that maybe they didn't put enough thought into when they rolled out this very, this voice that you're able to connect with on a very intimate level. And the fact that Sam Alman reached out to Scarlett Johansson to get her voice in the first place knowing that her voice was one that people associate with people falling in love with

the chat bot in the first place is extremely creepy. Meanwhile, we have all of these allegations swirling around OpenAI about how they steal IP to train these large language models. And now you have a real-life example of them allegedly trying to steal someone's voice for their chatbot raises a lot of questions for opening on. It could set off a very explosive legal battle depending on what happens. Scarlett Johansson wants to know how exactly this voice assistant was trained and created. And maybe we'll find out due to the legal proceedings. Finally, the ugly is red lobster. You've heard on the show for weeks about red lobster struggles,

how it abruptly closed more than 90 stores. But yesterday, it did the deed and filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy. And the details are about as ugly as a lobster. up to its eyeballs in at least $1 billion in debt, Red Lobster said it would close more locations as it prepares to sell most of its assets. The bankruptcy notice also provided more juicy information about that debacle of an All You Can Eat shrimp promotion last year. We knew it led to an $11 million loss for the company,

but there may have been something more nefarious and bizarre going on. According to the court filing, the All You Can Eat Shrimp's actual goal may have been about boosting the sales of Thai Union, a major investor. Thai Union is a seafood supplier, and under CEO Paul Kenny, Red Lobster ditched its two other shrimp suppliers,

leaving Thai Union as the only one remaining. So if you put two and two together, it seems that Thai Union may have been compelling Red Lobster to run this shrimp promotion, just so it could sell more shrimp to Red Lobster, causing it to run out of money seems fishy. Yeah, the last two owners of Red Lobster have done the chain dirty

because the owner before Time Union, which is this PE firm called Golden Gate Capital. When they sold, they financed the deal by doing the sale lease back agreement, which essentially means they bought all the land underneath the Red Lobsters and required the franchisees to pay them money to enrich the PE firm. And so that kind of bogged down these franchises with now they're having to pay their owner money just to operate on their land. And then you go to this Thai union thing, which seems like a shell company.

And I use that, or like a shell front, pun intended, for just boosting its own shrimp sales, its own crustacean sales. So I just feel bad for Red Lobster. It's a staple of American cuisine, and yet their owners are doing it dirty. Up next, a new player has entered the GLP1 weight loss space. Study and play. Come together on a Windows 11 PC. And for a limited time, college students get the best of both worlds.

Get the Unreal College deal, everything you need, to study and play with select Windows 11 PCs. eligible students get a year of Microsoft 365 premium and a year of Xbox GamePass Ultimate with a custom color Xbox wireless controller. Learn more at Windows.com slash student offer. While supplies last, ends June 30th, terms at AKA.m.m.m.m.com slash college PC. Kayak gets my flight, hotel, and rental car right. So I can tune out travel advice that's just plain wrong. Bro, Skycoin, way better than points.

Never fly during a Scorpio full moon. Just tell the manager you'll sue. Instant room upgrade. Stop taking bad travel advice. Start comparing hundreds of sites with kayak and get your trip right. Kayak, got that right. A company not named Eli Lilly or Novo Nordisk has jumped in the GLP1 weight loss drug game and it is riding it to all-time highs.

The digital pharmacy hymns and hers that rose to prominence selling generic versions of Viagra and Rogain introduce access to the class of drugs that include Ozempic and Monjaro and the stock went nuts. Shares closed up more than 27% yesterday, good for its largest intraday gain in more than three years. Usually developing a drug costs billions of dollars in many years, but Hems and Herds took a backdoor route and partnered with one of the largest generic manufacturers in the country that has FDA oversight to introduce the drugs to its customers. Because it's working with a generic manufacturer, it can charge a lot less. You can get an oral medication kit for 79 bucks a month, while injections start at just all.

$199 a month. Compare that to a Zempec, which can run someone over $1,000 a month before insurance. Neil, you can tell by how the market reacted here that this is a very big deal, both for hymns and herds and customers who have run up against big shortages of the medication. Yeah, and that shortages are exactly why they can make these drugs, because, I mean, Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly have patents on these GLU-1 semi-glutide drugs, but there is a provision in the federal government where, if there is a shortage of a particular drug, then it allows other pharmaceutical manufacturers to make a generic version of that drug because people need it, want it, et cetera.

So there is a clause called this compound. It's called compounding in the industry. And you can create a compounding drug here if there is a shortage going on. And it's kind of a loophole. And that's exactly what Hems and hers is exploiting to undercut prices of Wagovi and Manjaro by 85%. Yeah, as long as the manufacturer is FDA approved, then they can get on this compounded drug train. The actual drug itself aren't FDA approved. It's this very weird wrinkle in kind of the drug law. And the FDA does one that patients should not use compounded drugs if the actual name brand version are available. But yeah, it's, it is legal. And Hems and Hers has done this in the past with other types of drugs.

And it does seem like this is a great way to beat out competitors on the key statistic that matters, which is availability because there's so many shortages of these name brand drugs that, of course, if you are someone who wants access to them, you would go and consider a compounded version of the drug. And meanwhile, tell me if you've heard this before, this is Hymns and Hers fastest growing division, weight loss, surprise, surprise. They're on track to eclipse $100 million in revenue in this particular division by next year, and currently their annual revenue is about a billion dollars in sales, which, first of all, is a very impressive for a startup that was founded in 2017. So they're already doing gangbusters business.

And if this is their fastest growing division, they're about to do a tenth of their entire sales by next year in these weight loss drugs. So, I mean, you can see why every pharmaceutical company under the planet is wanting to get into this space. Right. It gives me almost Long Island blockchain vibes. Remember, during the blockchain revolution, a company just added blockchain to its name and it goes nuts.

It does seem like, if you can't get in AI right now, get in the GLP1 space. that is what shareholders want to see. And when you look at the statistics, it's very interesting because we know that about one in eight adults said they've taken a GLP1 in recently, in a survey actually just this month. But we don't have any insight into how many people are taking these compounded versions, which are becoming a lot more popular. So who knows, like half of the population could be taking either these brand name ones or

a compounded knockoff essentially. So that is another wrinkle where you just like have no insight into. how many of these drugs are being sold. Now buckle up for a long plane ride to New Caledonia, a remote French territory in the Pacific that could be on the verge of civil war right now, and there's major implications for nickel. The past few days, French police arrived in New Caledonia

to get under control swelling protests that have blockaded rows, closed to the airport, destroyed businesses, and left six people dead. Pro-independence activists in the territory are incredibly angry about a new law adopted in Paris that would give more voting rights to New Caledonia's non-indigenous population, diluting the influence of the native people. So what does this have to do with nickel? Well, nickel is the New Caledonian economy. The territory is the world's third largest producer of

primary nickel, and it accounts directly and indirectly for about a quarter of New Caledonia jobs. Like copper, nickel is a key ingredient for many products powering the green energy economy, such as lithium ion batteries for EVs. But unlike copper, which is hitting record highs, nickel prices have collapsed recently due to oversupply. That's an economic disaster for New Caledonia. And that malaise is also fueling these protests. Toby, French, President Emmanuel Macron,

has a serious problem on his hands. Yeah, it does, because France was trying to roll out this new kind of policy where they're trying to leverage their own nickel surges to reduce the influence of China in the region. and China has a very large kind of stranglehold on the resources within the Indo-Pacific region. And so Emmanuel Macron has been very vocal about saying, like, hey, we want to leverage New Caledonia to propel our own EV efforts and propel our own European battery factories. And yet here they are having a lot of tension here because of a variety of things falling nickel prices and then that law that they are trying to pass. And when the people of New Caledonia hear Macron being like, we want to use all of the nickel.

reserves in this remote Pacific island to buttress our own manufacturing, our own geopolitical standing, to them that says that they hear colonialism. And, you know, nickel has been a big part of the French draw to this territory ever since the 19th century. And so they're rebelling against this, you know, French neo-colonialist, at least rhetoric that Macron is doing. So we'll see how this plays out. The problem is these prices have been collapsing, which has cratered their economy. They have three nickel processing factories on the islands that could go out of business because nickel prices have collapsed. Indonesia started producing a ton of nickel, which flooded the market. And so in the copper industry, you have this oversupply or this under supply. They can't

find enough copper. Meanwhile, over in nickel, which has similar properties and is similar inputs into all these clean energy products. They have way too much supply. I do think, though, that demand is expected to triple in the coming year. So I do think eventually the price will bounce back, but at the time being right, it is contributing to a lot of New Caledonia's malaise. And prices have increased 7% over the weekend due to this unrest.

Finally, Neurrelink, Elon Musk's brain implant startup, is looking for another human guinea pig after the FDA greenlit a trial to put its brain chip in a second person's skull. Remember, five months ago, a quadriplegic man named Nolan Arbaugh became the first person to receive the brain implant, and he wowed the

world by playing chess just by thinking about his next move. Probably could have beaten Toby, too. Arbaugh was positively overwhelmed by the experience, which seemed to prove Elon's point that this technology could allow people with paralysis to communicate and interact with the world by controlling devices just with their brain activity. Then things got bumpy, though. Arbaugh's device stopped working as well as it had been, which the company attributed to 85% of the threads inserted in his brain coming loose.

He said he was crushed. The good news, after some investigation, Neurilink fixed the problem and made the device work even better than it was before the threads came undone. Now Neurlink is looking for its next human trial subject on its way to hit a goal of implanting 10 people with the device this year. Toby, when this guy talks about how his life has changed because of the brain ship, you get the sense this could be revolutionary. Yeah, he went through a wave of emotions too because it did change his life and then the

performance fell, but then the performance came back. Turns out that the brain just moved. a lot more than you'd expect inside the skull. The team at Neurlinks says that the brain moved up to three times what the company actually expected, which contributed to a lot of these threads becoming unattached. They inserted 64 of these external threads and only 15% are remaining. And it's just because you're just jostling around in there, which is, it's surprising because they've never done this before.

So you can't know until you actually try. And then, yeah, the team has found a way around the issue. And the way that they've done that is by essentially, taking the ones that are in clumps of neurons that are still firing, still providing data, and just switching off all the other ones. And those, the 15% are still actually doing very well. And he said that he's seen performance get back to even above levels that he had before. So a lot of things to expect in your first human trial.

And I think that there's a lot of good data coming out of this. Yeah, and they have over a thousand patients banked who want this implant, at least in the United States, so they can choose from there. and they also want to expand to Canada and Britain. They just need to do more trials like this. And, you know, there's a joke like, why would you let Elon Musk put a chip in your brain? Well, apparently there are a lot of people

because when you look at what this guy says about how this has changed his life, you know, in various interviews, he said, I didn't have anything to wake up for in the morning, and this has changed that for me. And he was so crushed when this thing stopped working as well as it had been when these threads came undone. So it really is just miracle technology.

Say what you want about Elon Musk putting a brawl. brain chip in your skull, but it really seems to be a revolutionary piece of tech. Yeah, a thousand quadripezex have applied, although they are saying they've having some issues. They're trying to get a more diverse group in there. And one challenge is a lot of the people signing up tend to skew white and male. So that's one more final wrinkle that they need to figure out in order to actually do a proper study on these blaine chip implants. All right, that's all the time we have for today. Thanks so much for listening and have a great Tuesday. I'm loving the weather we're getting

right now in the city. New York metro weather gave us a 10 out of 10 yesterday. Let's go! No notes. I'm thinking we're going to score back-to-back-tens today. For any thoughts on the show, send a note to our email, Morningbrewdaily at Morningbrew.com, or you can call Toby on his cell phone 9-4-1.

No, I'm not kidding. Let's roll the credits. Emily Milliron is our executive producer. Raymond Lou is our producer. Olivia Graham is our associate producer. Lonnie Fiscus is our technical director. Dan Baza is on audio. hair and makeup is hatching a plan to save Red Lobster. Investors, possibly you. Devin Emery is our chief content officer and our show is a production of Morning Brew. Great show today, Neil. Let's

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