Morning Brew Daily - Winners and Losers of Shutdown Ending & Last-Ever Penny Minted

Episode Date: November 13, 2025

Episode 713: Toby and Ann dive into the ending of the longest government shutdown in US history. But while federal workers and programs start up again, the ripple effects of its impacts may be far-reaching. Then, Google is standing up to scammers as it sues a shadowy operation, hoping to put an end to text phishing. Meanwhile, Toby shares his favorite numbers from Harvard’s alleged grade-flation, ChatGPT usage, and Disney’s economic toll from the YouTube blackout. Finally, it’s time to pay our condolences to a long time friend…the US penny.  Learn more at usbank.com/splitcard  Listen to Ann's show, Brew Markets, every weekday afternoon: swap.fm/l/brewmarketsshow Get your MBD live show tickets here! https://www.tinyurl.com/MBD-HOLIDAY  Subscribe to Morning Brew Daily for more of the news you need to start your day. Share the show with a friend, and leave us a review on your favorite podcast app. Listen to Morning Brew Daily Here:⁠ ⁠⁠https://www.swap.fm/l/mbd-note⁠⁠⁠  Watch Morning Brew Daily Here:⁠ ⁠⁠https://www.youtube.com/@MorningBrewDailyShow⁠ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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pwc.com slash US slash brew AI. That's pwc.com slash us slash brewAI. Good morning brew daily show. I'm Toby Howell. And I'm Ann Barry. Today the government shutdown is over, but the economic effects are lingering like a bad hangover. And fraudulent text,

how Google is taking on the bad guys. It's Thursday, November 13th. Let's ride. Good morning and happy Thursday, everyone. Well, I encourage everybody to go get a neck massage this morning because I foresee some upward gazing in your future. That's because we're in the middle of a crazy northern lights display. Aurora Borealis has been spotted in a huge sway the states,

recently including as far south as Florida and Alabama. Now, this particular storm comes as a result of a phenomenon called a coronal mass ejection where the sun blasts charged particles at Earth leading to this crazy light show. Well, this particular show has reached G4 levels, Toby, the second highest on the NOAA's five-step scale. Now, the storm likely peaked the past evening, but some lights will still be on display tonight. So, Toby, if I lived in one of these states that rarely gets a chance to see something like the Northern Lights,

how do I go about capturing that moment? As far south as Florida, my own home state. I'm so glad you asked, San, three things you need. You need darkness, exposure, and your iPhone. Get away from all the light pollution near civilization, if possible. You're not going to see them in Times Square. And then change your iPhone settings to use a longer exposure time. sensor lets in more light than usual. Keep a steady hand here because I've done this. It comes out

really blurry if you're moving around all the time. So if you want a crisp and cool picture, have a steady hand. But you'd be shocked at what a smartphone can pick up these days. I pointed at what I thought was a pretty normal night sky one night and let that puppy keep it shutter open for 10 seconds. And bam, northern lights just appeared. So it's cool. It's fun. If you are in a state as far south as you know, my home state of Florida. It's a pretty rare occurrence, so try to get out there and see them. Now a word from our sponsor, US Bank. Here in New York, there's no shortage of musicals and shows to catch year-round.

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After 44 long days, the government shutdown is officially over. The House passed a bill last night to fund the government through January 30th, and President Trump signed it, reopening the federal government, which had been hanging a close sign on its door since October 1st. The deal came to fruition after eight Democratic senators and six Democratic House reps broke ranks to pass the funding bill without extending the enhanced healthcare subsidies they were originally fighting for. The package also includes reinstatement of federal. workers who were laid off during the shutdown.

Now that the deal has been reached, some things will quickly resume with the government back up and running. About 800,000 federal employees who have been furloughed or working without pay will start to receive their paycheck again, including back pay, and SNAP benefits will also be restored likely within 24 hours in most states with funding secured through next September. But it could be a minute until everything is back to normal. For instance, the National Air Traffic Controlers Association President Nick Daniels said earlier this week, that it took over two months for staffing levels to rebound after the last

shutdown ended in 2019. As for the official government data that makes our jobs as podcasters easier, there will be delays. And the White House said that inflation in jobs data from October may never be released. And the sheer length of this thing caused all sorts of economic fallout. Who's emerging from this as a winner and who's emerging as a loser? Well, I'm really struggling to think, Toby, of someone who is a winner coming out of all this to be perfectly honest, but definitely in terms of the losers, let's take a look at some of the numbers. You know, every week that went by with the shutdown,

the economy probably suffered between $10 to $30 billion in terms of lost productivity or lost GDP. If you take a look at sort of specific sectors, to your point, you just talked about air traffic control. By the way, I traveled through this shutdown, and I got every delay you can imagine, but I got to hand it to the air traffic controllers kept working through this.

It's stressful at the best of times, and they were sort of amazing. But look, the airlines obviously lost a bunch of flights. We saw 2,000 scrapped on Monday. We saw 900 scrapped even yesterday. And it looked like this was going to get better. Small businesses, how many times have you and I talked about sweet greens and the carvers of the world? All of those locations near, you know, federal offices certainly saw traffic jive up.

So I think lots of people were struggling. I think there's a lot of happiness that it's over. I'll find some winners, though, because I'll always look on the bright side. And the winners were actually probably Wall Street and investors throughout this because the market, has performed pretty well throughout the entire shutdown. Overall, if you look at the past 13 shutdowns, SP 500 was flat or positive in 10 of them. So really the market tends to shrug off these things for the most part. And I do think that if you look over the past September and October, it wasn't the strongest that we've ever seen, but also it wasn't the week as we saw about a 2%

gain during the shutdown from October 1st to now. So the market did perform a little bit better than maybe you would expect considering all the economic turmoil that was happening under the service. Another sector of the economy that probably did pretty well during the shutdown was private credit and gig platforms because when you are going without paychecks for a while, like a lot of government workers have, you know, these buy now pay later plans, these paycheck advance apps, they step in and, you know, bridge the gap for these mispaychecks. This happened during, you know, the pandemic era as well where, you know, cash app and then things like DoorDash also started to become more ubiquitous.

So a short-term boost for sure. I don't know if it's going to be a long-term boost, but these sort of bridge the gap moments are big for companies like that as well. Well, I think everyone's super, super excited to be getting back to work. Also, just one thing that's sort of interesting here, Toby, it's looking ahead now. We're getting into that sort of holiday season when consumers are thinking about what their holiday spend is going to look like.

So folks thinking about, you know, what does it mean for the retail sector? again, some of this back pay, folks will get paid. There may be some catch-up spending, but some of it may be lost in the meantime. Yeah, and the housing market as well definitely slowed down during this because mortgage applications were delayed or slowed down by a lot of missing income verification. You can't go get a house if you don't have any income to pledge. So the housing market is probably going to slowly emerge from this, especially in areas around DC as well. But you're right. The loss of the overall economy, this is lost productivity that you can't easily recapture or regain after it happened.

So there's going to be some lingering, you know, productivity loss. There's going to be some lingering effects on hiring all the way up to 2026. So the overall impact, you know, that $14 billion a week number that you mentioned, I think that is potentially just scratching the service on how long this thing. I called it a hangover at the beginning of the show because it's going to, there's going to be an economic hangover, even though the, you know, the closed sign has turned to open on the government. The good news, though, does mean that everyone who is worried about their thing,

Thanksgiving travel. I don't know if you, Toby, were worried about getting on a plane a couple weeks from now. At least there is the sort of end in sight and folks are actually getting a little bit a little bit more confident about being able to see friends and loved ones over that Thanksgiving period. Let's move on Toby and talk about something that I'm very curious as to whether you've experienced this. Have you ever received a text message saying you're overdue on a toll payment or that you need to authorize a delivery of something you frankly didn't know you'd ordered? Yes, all the time. All the time. Okay. Well, that means. that like you, and I've had this too, you've been experiencing together with victims from all

over the world. You've been plagued with millions of scam text messages. And these have allegedly made over a billion dollars for the instigators of these schemes. But now, someone is finally standing up to these scammers. And it's someone who might actually have the might to do it. So the unexpected Batman in this, the defender of those text recipients, is Google suing the cyber criminal group behind these text fishing scams, claiming 25 unnamed individuals are part of an operation known as, quote, lighthouse. Now, in the lawsuit, they're saying the public was preyed upon by using Google's logos and trademarks on fraudulent websites to dupe unsuspecting victims, stealing their personal information such as credit card numbers and bank accounts, millions

of dollars as a result being swindled from people. Now, Google cited research by the CSIS security group in its legal filings, claiming that somewhere between just under 30 million to 115 millions, this is a big range, US credit or banking card details have been stolen. Now, Google believes that these individuals are in China, which means they're outside the reach of US courts. But they're spending a lot of time and resources on this, hoping that this suit acts as a deterrent. So Toby, fishing has been growing in scale and sophistication. Does Google have an actual shot at putting all of this to an end? I mean, I certainly hope so because I think every single person listening has gone through that moment where they get a new text.

You look at it and you're like, why do I have an unpaid toll in Florida? You see some, you know, sketchy looking URL. And I think a lot of people have been trained at this point to just ignore it. But still, this is a massive global scam operation. So Lighthouse is fishing as a service. You know, there's software as a service. Lighthouse is this thing that you can sell to criminals that has subscriptions in weekly, monthly, annual payment tiers. It's just like any other software plan, but what it does is it gives you ready-made fishing templates.

It allows you to set up fake websites. It has backend dashboards from the stolen data. So it really is this sophisticated operation. So Google is saying like, hey, this is not just a couple of people, you know, firing these out themselves. This is a legitimate company that is, you know, making it money and it's selling subscriptions to these things. And it's preying off people using USPS, using EasyPass, using EasyPass, these. institutions that people are familiar with. And trust. Yeah, they're playing off

the trust that is associated with those names and they're going after, you know, unsuspecting people. So I was just shocked to see the sophistication of this lighthouse enterprise. I'm going to be really curious to see how this legal case actually unfolds and whether it's even possible to get a result here. So think about this.

Google is filing suit, but it doesn't actually know the real identities of the scammers. The scammers are listed as anonymous. So they've got handles on telegrams. for example. So I guess the question is, if this is supposed to be preventative, right? If this is supposed to be Google saying anyone who's thinking about going there, don't because you're going to have the full might and power of one of the biggest companies on planet Earth coming after you, it sounds scary, but is anyone going to be intimidated by it?

It's going to be tough because they are outside of U.S. borders. So the legal basis here is, you know, a little tougher to find. But we have seen that, you know, injunctions can be, you know, show into hosting providers or other tech firms that are based within the United States that could act as a deterrent as you will. So you have to kind of go through these legal pathways in order to say like, hey, you are hosting these software in the US. We can go after you, even though we can't necessarily get to these 25 unnamed defendants as easily. So yeah, I think that there is some illegal leverage here that you get by, you know, pursuing this lawsuit, even though it's going to be tough

to actually track down the individual's responsible for it. I do also wonder how much they're depending on getting some collaboration with Chinese authorities, if this is where this business is based, to try and ultimately get this shut down. Just as a side note, here it is Google is the one filing suit, but it would be tough for us to ignore the fact that Google faces intense legal scrutiny itself right now. It does have recent antitrust rulings

over at search and advertising dominance. So, Toby, I'm curious, how much of this is an attempt to try and reclaim some reputational high ground again, if you're Google? Yeah, it's trying to be. the White Knight here. The Batman, as you said. Because you are right.

Everyone has experienced these. And so they say, all right, Google, thanks for having our back here. Again, who knows how effective they're going to be? Because this is such a sophisticated and widespread operation. But I do think you're right. There probably is a little bit of goodwill that they're trying to garner here as well. All right, we're going to take a quick break and come back with a celebrity Neal's number segment right after this.

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Allergic reactions can occur that can be severe. Eye problems can occur. Tell your doctor if you have new or worsening eye problems. You should not receive a live vaccine when treated with ebbglis. Before starting Epgless, tell your doctor if you have a parasitic infection. Ask your doctor about Ebglis and visit abglis.lis.litt.com or call 1-800-LillyR-X or 1-800 545-9779. Welcome to Neal's numbers, the segment where I do my best celebrity Neil impression and bring you three stats from the week's news that will help you dominate Thanksgiving small talk.

And my first number is 60, which is the percent of grades handed out at Harvard last year. were A's. That's according to an internal report from the school where by its own admission, it concluded that it's failing to perform the key functions of grading properly. Sending out report cards that would make it onto every fridge back home is a recent phenomenon. Back in the 2005 school year, only 25% of grades were A's, a number that has been steadily rising since. Along the way, the median GP has risen to 3.83 from 3.29 back in 1985. Well, you say maybe kids are just smarter these days, potentially, but time spent studying has hardly changed in the past two decades, hovering around six hours a week. So workload hasn't

actually grown just the grades. Part of the gradeflation trend comes from professors who fear tougher grading will drive students away from their courses. Too much stress, they argue, is actually bad for academic rigor. But 60% A's, I couldn't even muster that in first grade, Anne. I was a star pupil. Of course you are star people and star athlete and all these kinds of things. Well, is that because you were at a school where basically teachers are being intellectually honest and they weren't inflating your grades at that time? That's the big question here because a lot of people feel like, well, students are actually

kind of mad about this, the report coming out because they're like, you're moving the goalpost here. You admitted us because we were straight A students. Now we're getting A's at school and you're saying, ah, there's way too much grade inflation going on. They are basically saying like, hey, we're pretty dang smart here. you have some other students that say the problem is the fact that you can get A's in courses that you don't do work on. If you do the work and get an A, that's fine.

But a lot of these courses are easier and just handing out A's like candy, which devalues the A's that people are working harder from. So I can see both sides of this argument here for sure. Particularly if these are students who are innate, the competitive, actually. They want to see some differentiation in performance. And what happened, too, is that this has not been a battle that is to modern times. back in 2004, Princeton also tried capping its A's a little bit, but they dropped that actually because they found it was causing more stress in their student body and also made their students look worse next to peers from other schools because if you're coming out with Princeton,

you have a 3.2 GPA and you're trying to get into law school against someone from Harvard who's got a 38 GPA, that is not going to, you know, that you can't square the circle there. So there's a long history of schools trying to crack down on A's. one solution that Harvard actually put forth is bringing back the A plus as like a carrot on the top. So it's not just straight A's anymore. Now if you bring back, you know, that highest upper echelon of grading, maybe it will cause people to like work harder there. So lots of different angles to this. But it is fascinating that, you know, the A's are just so plentiful at Harvard these days that everyone is getting them.

They handing them out like candy. I'm so skeptical. That just means you get great inflation to more A pluses, right? Over time. You know, one of the things here, Toby, that struck me when I was reading about, about this. There's a lot of conversation around how the students are pushing back. They're saying they already face extreme workloads and stress. What about the professors, right? If you take a look at this from their perspective, one of the reasons this has happened is because professors have been

stressed that if they don't have a course as perceived as being at least accessible for getting grades that are within reach, then they might see enrollment fall. And there's this kind of race to the bottom in some sense in terms of it being a popularity contest. Yeah, that is a great point because yeah, if you read like, oh, easy A or hard A, you're probably going to to maybe opt for that, well, I don't know how I don't want to put words in the mouth of Harvard students, but that you're absolutely right. The professors are facing this as well. My next number has to do with how people use chat GPT. The Washington Post analyzed 47,000 publicly shared conversations and found that one in 10 users mainly use the tool for social interaction,

not work or productivity. That supports what OpenAI's internal data drop from September shows to. Most queries are for personal use, not professional. Within that personal use subset, the post found that despite OpenAAA, largely promoting chat TVT as a productivity tool, about 10% of users were engaging in abstract discussions with the chatbot, ranging from obscure medical treatment explorations to musing on the nature of reality. So a lot of people are treating the chatbot less as a grammar checker or email writer, and more as an all-knowing Oracle they can use to probe the depths of themselves and existence. One thing that also stands out about this particular dataset is how users never thought

their chats would see the light of day. Opening AI removed discoverability of chats via Google in July after realizing users were unintentionally sharing private info. But the post was able to scrape 93,000 shared chats preserved by the internet archive to build their own analysis. And big takeaway here is that chat GPT is used frequently as a companion and a confidant in addition to practical use cases like writing, researching or explaining things. I just repeat a sentence. You literally just said, Toby, you literally just said that chat GPT is used by people to probe the depths of themselves and their existence. That was poetic in terms of your voice over there. So I'm writing that down. You know, one of the things, too, that was

interesting here is there is this risk of something called AI sycophancy, which is where you type something into chat GPT. And it has a tendency to agree with you more than to actually push back, which just shows the importance of the prompts that you use if you really want something objective coming back. And the data supports that. So the post found that chat GPT begins responses with variance of yes or correct 17,500 times. That's nearly 10 times more often than no or wrong. So you're absolutely right. This has been the number one complaint people have had about especially recent AI models is that they just agree with you. They say, yes, you're the smartest person in the world. Or yes, that idea is great. Rather than pushing back and many people have tried to manually say,

no, I want you to disagree with me more. So the language patterns, the yes effect are absolutely there in this dataset as well. You know, it's a little bit like improvisation training. You know, it's always yes and every sentence you have. The other thing that was interesting here is just thinking about where these chatbot conversations end up. So one place that folks have been posting their chatbot conversations is on Reddit. And here's why this caught my eye, Toby. People like Reddit and other forums are literally selling this data to, guess who, open AI to try to train these models.

So now we're getting AI generated conversations potentially training AI models. It's AI all the way to the bottom. It's a search for the AI thing. It's a totally different form of that. Exactly. My final number shows just how much a beef can cost yet. As Disney's fight with YouTube TV over a new content distribution contract drags on, the blackout is turning into a financial nightmare.

According to estimates, the feud is costing Disney in estimated $4.3 million per day in loss revenue. That figure comes by way of Morgan Stanley analysts who project a $60 million total hit to Disney's upcoming quarter if the blackout lasts 14 days. Of course, the impact on viewers might be even more intense. YouTube TV's 10 million plus subscribers have now missed two Monday night football games, including the Eagles versus the Packers on November 10th, which, if we're being honest, you didn't miss much, as well as two full Saturdays of college football due to the ESPN blackout.

Leaving millions of NFL and college football fans in the dark, the single most valuable audience Disney holds is a code red for the company. But there's two sides to this money losing coin. Disney is losing $30 million a week, but YouTube TV risks subscriber churn. According to a recent survey, 24% of YouTube TV subscribers say they've already canceled or planned to because of the blackout. Those stats sent YouTube parent Google into damage control. It offered users a one-time $20 account credit to discourage cancellations. And there's no winners here. Maybe the financial toll will determine who blinks first, though. This is like the government shutdown of the media world, right? That's what we're in.

And just to put into context, Toby, some of those numbers that you laid out, that's $30 million per week that Disney's losing in revenue, that was the Morgan Stanley analyst you referenced. Just to put it in context, Disney's full year revenue last year was $91 billion. YouTube's full year revenue last year, $54 billion. So as annoying as is for everybody, and there is lost money here, both of these guys can afford to sort of take the hit for a while. waiting to see who blinks first.

It really is just this disagreement with how they're seeing the situation. ABC, Disney owns ABC and ESPN as well. And ABC has increasingly been showing some of these sports broadcast that were once exclusive to ESPN. So Disney stance is like, hey, the increase of availability of our live sports makes our product more valuable. So it justifies a higher cost. But then the distributor, YouTube TV, says that we're already paying for the same content

that people can watch on ESPN. Why are we paying for the same content again on ABC? So you're not seeing a lot of eye to eye here. Disney does report earnings this morning, actually. So maybe we'll see some clarity on when we feel like this conflict will eventually end because right now it's untenable for a lot of watchers. Going to have to run out of here and take a look at those earnings for sure. Well, now a sprint to the finish with our final headlines.

Starting with our first headline, which is it is truly the end of an era at 238 years of the US has finally officially minted its very last penny in Philadelphia. Well, just a brief history of how we got here, President Trump wanted to stop the minting of US pennies due to its cost of productions because the irony is it costs about four cents to make one cent. Now, there was a time when pennies were valuable enough to buy penny candy like gumbulls or feed parking meters and tall booths. Now they're found mostly at the bottom of water fountains, coin jars, which is lost underneath

car seats. Well, even though we've stopped making pennies, they are still legal tender, but the removal from circulation is causing a headache for some retailers on figuring out what to do if they actually have to give exact change. Lots of things, by the way, a price at like $4.99 just to be below that dollar mark. So do they round to the nearest nickel? Do they ask customers to pay with the credit card? In any case, the government's phasing out of the penny has been a bit, quote, chaotic. That's Mark Weller, Executive Director of Americans for Common Sense. Great name, by the way. Toby, will you be missing our little copper-plated friend? RIP to the penny.

It feel like it snuck up on us. I mean, we've done a couple of stories now about how the penny was getting phased out, but the fact that the last one was minted, it is kind of a monumental day. My favorite penny fact is that Abraham Lincoln is the most reproduce artwork in all of human history because we've minted so many pennies

and he's on the back of the penny. So it is just one of those things that was so ubiquitous with America for so long now. It's just phasing out. retailers are obviously a little bit annoyed here. They're having some headaches because when you round down to the nearest nickel, Quick Trip said it's going to, a convenience store chain said it's going to cost it a couple of million dollars annually doing that. So a lot of these trade groups and retail groups are saying we just want federal legislation that standardizes rounding rules for cash transactions because we'd all be shaving off these millions of dollars every single year. I do wonder when is the moment when these pennies become collectibles, right? Because they're so rare. Start collecting. Start hoarding.

Literally before, I was talking to our producer Ray before we started filming, he said there's going to be a day where people are diving into fountains. She tried to get to these weddings. There's literally billions out there, though. So just check under your seat cushions. No need to get wet in the fountains. Finally, next time you fly Ryanair, I hope you have your phone charged because as of yesterday,

passengers are no longer able to print boarding passes. They must check in online and access their documents through the Ryanair app. CEO Michael O'Leary said that this change was inevitable. Almost 100% of passengers, he said, have smartphones, so we want to move everyone into that technology. Some destinations, including airports in Albania and Morocco, still require printed passes due to local rules. In those cases, Ryanair will provide one. But everywhere else, should you forget to check in before the airport, you'll be slapped with a around $72 airport check-in fee. Hefty, but again, O'Leary says that anyone who fails to check in ahead of time is, quote,

either stupid or they ignored our email instructions. Still, Anne, this shift shouldn't be too drastic as almost 80% of Ryanair's 206 million passengers already use digital boarding passes. Either way, definitely a great way to get people to download their app. That's for sure. Yeah, I actually thought this had happened already. That's a blink and I miss it. I will say, though, my grandmother in the UK, she flies on Ryanair. And I worry for her because there is absolutely no way she's going to be downloading her mobile boarding.

You're totally right. I mean, obviously the people who fly Ryanair consistently probably know this. We'll have the Ryanair app. But the people who are flying it for the first time, a tourist or maybe someone like your grandma, they aren't up to date on these rules. And so they might be, you know, they're going to get hit with this fee going forward. Obviously, a lot of people are going to be able to do this. But it is interesting that, like, we're just completely done with boarding passes.

Just a different way of flying. I remember, I mean, I'm not that old, but I still remember, like, you had paper boarding passes. That was the only way to get on the plane. Now they're completely doing away with it. It makes sense over time when you think of it. about it, but yeah, I hope your grandma has smooth sailing going forward. All right, that is all the time we have today. If you have thoughts on the show, want to eulogize the penny or get mad at Ryanair, shoot us a message on Instagram at MB Daily Show. Toss us a follow there as well. Let's roll these

credits. Emily Miller is our executive producer. Raymond Lou is our producer. Olivia Graham and Olivia Lake are our associate producers. Hair and makeup is hoarding pennies just in case. Devin Emery is our president in our show's production of Morning Brew. We're back again tomorrow morning, same time. We'll catch you here. All. Pay off your home, travel for life, drive a Ferrari. In celebration of the world premiere of the Monopoly Big Board Buckslot

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