Morning Brew Daily - Xbox Hits Reset Button on Business & Netflix Has a ‘Season 2’ Problem
Episode Date: July 7, 2026#883: Microsoft cuts over 4,000 jobs including its Xbox unit as it looks to downsize its gaming division. SpaceX joins the Nasdaq in less than a month of it becoming public. Netflix has a retention pr...oblem as it struggles to keep viewers hooked onto its shows after its first season. Grocery tourism is one of the hottest trends of 2026 and some say is the best way to experience a new city. Get 10% off using MORNINGBREW10 at altrarunning.com/morningbrew Get tickets for our trivia tournament! https://caveat.nyc/events/the-morning-brew-trivia-tournament-2026-07-30 Grab tickets to our Performance Revue show! https://www.morningbrew.com/events/brew-performance-revue-2026?utm_campaign=performance_revue_2026&utm_source=mbd Subscribe to Morning Brew Daily for more of the news you need to start your day. Share the show with a friend, and leave us a review on your favorite podcast app. Listen to Morning Brew Daily Here: https://www.swap.fm/l/mbd-note Watch Morning Brew Daily Here: https://www.youtube.com/@MorningBrewDailyShow Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
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Good morning for Daily Show.
I'm Neil Fryman.
And I'm Toby Howell.
Today, Netflix has a problem.
People aren't sticking around for the second season.
Then Xbox is on the struggle bus and is laying off thousands.
It's Tuesday, July 7th.
Let's ride.
Oof.
Last night at the World Cup, the U.S. men's national team got shellacked by Belgium 4 to 1,
an abrupt and, frankly, embarrassing end to what had been a promising tournament run.
Tensions were high leading up to the game after America's star striker, Fuller and Balligan,
was allowed to play after FIFA rescinded his one match ban.
But once the teams got on the pitch, it was all Belgium for 90 minutes and a familiar
sinking feeling for USA fans.
And so the World Cup rolls on without the stars and stripes.
But Toby, I'm a free agent.
Who should I root for?
Who is my new team?
I can't believe these words are coming out of my mouth, but maybe England?
They had such a gutsy performance against Mexico that they won me all.
over. Morocco is also a very solid bandwagon to get on. They have not lost an official match
in regular extra time since late 2023. 33, 34 matches unbeaten. And finally, you gotta love
the Norwegians. Yes, they play England next round, but Holland is an absolute terror. I'm all
in on the rowing after games. They also feel like the last true underdog left. So maybe take
your attention to Norway if you want to kind of ride the underdog. It is very, very,
frustrating because I think Norway and England are my top too, and they're playing against
each other. So I guess whoever wins that game, I'll ride or die with them. And now a word from
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Remember the red ring of death from your Xbox 360?
It was a sign of your console's imminent demise.
Right now, the entire Xbox Division looks ringed in red.
After Microsoft announced it was cutting up to 20% of its workforce.
It is also selling or spinning off four to five game studios that acquired within the past decade.
The gaming division inside Microsoft had been spending money like a 13-year-old in GameStop for the first time.
In 2023, it bought Activision Blizzard home to Call of Duty in Candy Crush for $69 billion, the largest gaming acquisition ever.
Microsoft followed that up by buying the studio behind Fallout and Skyrim,
for 8.1 billion.
The idea was to assemble a great catalog of games
so they could sell a bunch of Xboxes
and a bunch of subscriptions
to GamePass Microsoft's online game store.
But instead of becoming the Netflix of gaming,
some boss levels rolled around.
Xbox CEO Asha Sharma said,
Xbox ended up losing 64 cents
for every $1 invested into its game studios.
Our business today is not healthy,
she wrote in a memo to employees.
But perhaps the final boss was
AI. Microsoft is spending roughly $190 billion this year on AI infrastructure, so some resources
are being redirected away from slower growing businesses like gaming. Neil, Microsoft has been in the
gaming business for a quarter century at this point, but right now it might be its lowest moment ever.
Xbox execs absolutely torch their own business in this memo. I mean, they went, seems like they went
a little above and beyond saying some hard truths about what's going on at Xbox. In this memo,
they wrote, excluding Activision Blizzard King over the past five years,
we have spent over $20 billion on ongoing investments in our content platform and hardware subsidy,
but our annual revenue has declined nearly half a billion during that time.
Going forward, this cannot continue.
And previously, Microsoft's side, you know, Nadella, the CEO said that Xbox gamers streaming,
they're playing on YouTube, were making more money off the games than Microsoft did.
So they absolutely lit into their own business, but it seems like in a dire enough place
where they needed to share these hard truths.
Yeah, the original strategy was let's buy up all these studios.
Let's make this massive exclusive gaming library.
So we can sell more Xbox consoles.
If you want to play this game, you need to buy an Xbox.
That was the idea at least.
But for some reason, everything just got a little bit too bloated.
There's too many layers of management.
That was another big theme of this memo is that, hey, we have 14 layers sometimes
between top management to the bottom employees.
We need to compress that organization.
It's something we've been seeing across tech.
But then also, the Game Pass bet just really has not paid off whatsoever.
They wanted 77 million subscribers.
Actually, they wanted 100 million subscribers to game pass by the end of 2030.
Right now, it's plateaued at roughly $30 million.
So that subscription business has not picked up the slack that they thought it would
because they need to justify these massive outlays on these gaming studios.
So what's the turnaround plan?
Well, Asha Sharma is in charge.
She joined Xbox five months ago.
She was a former Instacart executive, zero experience in gaming, but the responsibility is hers now.
She wrote that a rallying cry.
History is full of companies that mistake longevity for inevitability.
We will not be one of them.
So they're going to shed five of these game studios.
They're going to, they already reduce.
the price of game pass and they're going to lean into some of their more popular titles like
Minecraft, Candy Crush, and Fallout and kind of just put more resources to wherever the momentum
is, at least in their gaming industry, it's only concentrated in just a few of those games.
I feel bad for the gaming industry because they have just gotten hit after hit mostly in the
hardware business because I mentioned AI has kind of eaten into some of the span that may
have gone to the gaming division.
but the memory chip squeeze that we've talked about a lot on this show is making component costs sore for the hardware business.
Microsoft has jacked up Xbox prices $150 in August already after having already raised prices twice in the last year.
So everything is just more expensive right now.
Everything is more difficult when it comes to the hardware portion of the business.
And Xbox feels iconic, but maybe it's not as iconic as we think.
and it could be, you know, entering a slow death spile right now if things don't change.
As Sharma said, nothing is inevitable.
All right, moving on, congratulations or I'm sorry, you are in all likelihood the new owner
of some SpaceX stock.
That's because today Elon Musk Rocket and AI Giant is joining the NASDAQ 100, prompting mutual
funds and ETFs that track the index, owning $800 billion in collective assets to buy in.
It wouldn't be a surprise to see one of those funds, say, Investco QQQ in your retirement
portfolio, meaning you soon will have a stake, a small one in the company.
SpaceX didn't follow the typical process to join the NASDAQ, but it also wasn't a typical
IPO.
Last month, SpaceX went public in the biggest IPO of all time, instantly making it one of the
most valuable companies in the world worth over $2 trillion today.
In the lead-up, the company lobbied indexes to bend their rules to allow it fast-track status
and the NASDAQ complied.
It established new criteria for so-called mega-initial public offerings that grant eligibility
on the stock's 15th trading day rather than the usual three-month seasoning period.
For SpaceX, that moment arrives this morning.
A basket of 100 non-financial stocks with a focus on tech.
The NASDAQ isn't the behemoth that is the S&P 500,
which has received $16 trillion in investments from the mutual funds and ETFs that track it.
Still, inclusion in the NASDAQ essentially provides automatic demand for SpaceX stock,
which could support it in its early volatile days as a public company.
Yeah, it sounds good.
Forced buying always seems to stay.
these stocks when they join a major index. But index inclusion isn't always as
bullish as it may appear on the surface. If you just go back through recent history, some
buzzy names to have joined indexes. Haven't performed that well. Palantir George joined the NASDAQ
100 back in December of 2024. Shares fell roughly 25% over the following weeks. Same thing happened
for strategy, which is the Bitcoin holding company. They joined the NASDAQ 100 in December,
2024. It has declined roughly 80% from that high. Again, there's some other, you know,
business implications that may have contributed to that. But some people think that a lot of the
good news is already priced in. Where SpaceX is unique, though, is that it's been trading for such
a short period of time. How much of that news can be priced in. It also has a very low
float of actual tradable shares out there. So it is just a wildcard in every sense. But recent
history has suggested that maybe it's not this big bullish signal that many expect it to be.
And an interesting wrinkle of this is that, you know, as SpaceX becomes a part of the NASDAQ
100 and Tesla is already a big part of the NASDAQ 100 and the S&P 500, more people are saying,
I don't really want to own any shares in an Elon Musk-led company due to his involvement in
politics.
And so if you go on Reddit or TikTok, you're going to find all of these videos of people saying,
here's how you go about not having a share or a stake in an Elon Musk company.
and there's a couple different ways to do this, but one of them offered by platforms like
Elvest is called direct indexing.
And that's where you buy a basket of individual stocks that mirror an index, but it allows
you the flexibility to exclude shares of companies that you don't necessarily want in your
portfolio.
So there is a thriving community of people online who say, well, you know, it's kind of unfortunate
that SpaceX and Tesla is now in these major indexes because that's not something that I want
because Elon's are lightning rot.
Still, there is remarkable bullish trading activity around SpaceX.
If you follow the flow, if you follow the options contract traded in the last week,
the 10 most heavily traded options contract on Monday were all call options,
which is a bullish bet on the future of that stock price.
The single most popular contract was a $450 strike call expiring July 17th.
For buyers to just break even on that, SpaceX would need to rally roughly 180%.
in less than two weeks. So clearly there's still a large wave of enthusiasm around this company,
despite some people positioning themselves as trying to get away from Elon in these major
indexes. Yeah, the retail demand for this has been insane. Okay, so wait, you said it needs to hit a
$450 per share price. Well, let's see what SpaceX stock has been doing over the past few weeks.
Well, it opened at $150 per share. And then in the next few days, had this remarkable run-up to $225 a share.
and then it's come back down to Earth, so to speak, to about $160.
So it's a little higher than where it opened, but it still is a long way to go for these
most bullish SpaceX investors to make their money back.
Up next, Netflix viewers are bailing after a show's first season, and it's causing major
problems for the company.
Just look at the live action Avatar, The Last Airbender, a huge hit from 2024, whose second
season came out last month.
As Variety points out, the new season earned just 8.7 million views in its first four days.
a 59% plunge from season one.
It is not the exception.
Tina Fey's comedy of the four seasons suffered a 63% drop in viewership between the first and second
seasons.
Beef's second season dropped 58%.
A good girl's guide to murder collapsed 80%.
While Netflix historically sees a dip in viewers from one season to the next, this tanking
is on another level, so much so that it's become a major source of concern for the company
according to Bloomberg.
And it couldn't have come at a worse time because investors are already souring on
Netflix. It's still the clear leader in the streaming clubhouse, but when deciding between
Netflix and Chill, more people are deciding chill or YouTube or HBO. Bloomberg's Lucas
Shaw reported that the amount of time customers spent watching Netflix last year was almost
stagnant, growing less than 2%. As a result, Netflix stock has fallen 40% over the past 12 months
and 17% this year alone. Toby, it seems people have zero loyalty to Netflix shows. What's going on?
Part of it is just self-inflicted because Netflix does a binge release model.
They release the entire season and one day, if you want to watch the entire season of beef,
season two and one sitting, you can do that.
So that means that their shows are flashing the pan moments.
They don't sustain that buzz over time because they are not released weekly like, say,
a House of Dragon on HBO.
They have stuck to a weekly release cycle, which extends.
that buzz for a longer period of time. So maybe that is one reason. The other reason is that
Netflix in their recent history doesn't really care about if you watch the second season of a show
because first seasons are the ones that bring in new subscribers. They have been all about growth.
They want to get new people in the ecosystem. The easiest way to do that is constantly
jangle the keys of a new season one in front of them. By the time that they're in the ecosystem,
they were not focusing so much on those existing customers' engagement in the platform.
Now we might be seeing some cracks in that strategy, but season one has always been more important
than season two to them. And now they're seeing, they're kind of reaping what they sowed.
Yeah, because it's like 50, 60, 70, 80 percent drops. I mean, it's pretty astonishing.
I think a good comp here is HBO to show that this Netflix tanking after the first and second
season is truly an outlier. So let's look at the last of us. That gains.
600,000 viewers between season, despite being off air for two years. And that was maybe one of the
one things that people pointed to for Netflix and said, well, look, people are obviously going to
drop off because you're waiting two, three, four years in between seasons. We saw a stranger
thing goes, went on for like a generation. But you're seeing HBO here rolled out the last
of us after two years and it gained 600,000 viewers. The White Lotus is another example of a show
that grew from season one to season two, up 63 percent. And then from season two to season three,
up 57%.
You mentioned the House of the Dragon.
That fell between seasons two and season three by 8%.
So that's a small drop.
There's quite a multi-year span there,
but it's nothing like what we're seeing at Netflix.
So it seems like that's a problem that they need to diagnose and it looks like they are.
And it also looks like some of those breakout hits that were bringing in subscribers
are not popping up as frequently as they were before.
Netflix's biggest viewing week in April and May belong to the roast of Kevin
Heart, which is not exactly a flagship scripted series that you can release a season two of. So
a lot of cracks emerging in this business model right now. Obviously, the caveat is, it's still doing
very well. It's already dominating streaming. It is the biggest fish in the pond. But when they're
looking for growth channels, maybe keeping people around for more seasons and keeping them more engaged
is the path that they need to go down rather than just always looking ahead to the newest thing.
All right, we're going to take a quick break and come back with Toby's trends right after this.
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A new trend is sweeping the tourism industry.
Rather than visiting the Isle of Man, travelers are opting for the aisle of grocery stores.
Connie and asked traveler called Grocery Tourism, a hot trend of 2026.
31% of U.S. travelers plan to explore local supermarkets while traveling in 2026, according to
Sky Scanner. So let's talk about it on today's edition of Toby's Trends. When you visit a
foreign country, you don't necessarily want to do touristy stuff. Yes, the major sites are fun,
but to really get an authentic look at how people in that country live their life, it's tough
to beat the grocery store. Not only do you get a wonderful cross-section of the type of food
that place eats from immaculately assembled convenience store sandwiches in Japan and salted fish
skin snacks in Singapore to fermented herring in Sweden and licorice in the Netherlands.
You also get a wonderful cross-section of the people themselves.
What do people snack on?
What comfort foods do they eat?
What products occupy the most shelf space?
Supermarkets reveal real life.
The sub-snacker Nicole James described her time working in grocery stores as anthropology in a polyester apron.
Neil, I love this.
Don't buy magnets or trinkets buy mayonnaise and tartar sauce.
like a great way to authentically experience a place. If they let you bring it through customs,
absolutely. I'm glad I'm not alone because this is one of my favorite things to do on vacation.
I thought James really encapsulated the trend really well in her piece. She writes,
grocery stores offer the rarest thing in modern travel, the uncurated ordinary. The supermarket is
the one place travel cannot fully manicure itself. Museums tell you what a country wants to remember.
Restaurants tell you what it wants photographed. Supermarkets tell you what it eats at 6.14 p.m.
when everyone is tired and dinner has become a hostage negotiation, they disclose the private life
of a destination complete with its anxieties and emergency snacks. They reveal the daily economic
choices of consumers, which is why myself and I think a lot of other people, according to Condé Nast
travel and all these Hilton Trent new trend reports, saying more people to get a slice of daily
life are going to the grocery store. It also helps you save money, too, because eating out in a place,
eating out anywhere is usually more expensive than going to a grocery store. So if you go and buy
the local fresh bread, you buy the local cheeses, that can substitute a meal that you would
otherwise pay a lot of money for. The other part of this trend, the sub-neesh, sub-trend to this
trend is reusable bags have become souvenirs as well. So just like, you know, the Trader Joe
totes are big in America. When you go to another country, you want that version of the Trader Joe's
Chote to bring home. So it is kind of becoming the de facto souvenir that people want as well. And I
think that is a great one. Coming back with a sweet tote bag is cooler than coming back,
again, with a magnet or a trinket or something like that.
I got now. I'm going to go back home and see my refrigerator full of magnets and just tear
them down. Toby doesn't think they're cool. I will say you don't even have to leave the United
States to do this because each region has their own grocery store that says a lot about that
particular region. So if I go to Berkeley, California, I'm absolutely going to go to the Berkeley
Bowl, which is known for its produce. If I go to Texas, definitely going to stop by H.E.B.
publics in Florida. If I go to Los Angeles, probably will stop by an heroin, which I actually
haven't been to. There seems to be quite a bit of buzz around that particular place. I don't know if
I'll buy anything because I can't afford it, but I'll definitely stop by. But you can do this in the
United States too and see what each region has to offer. I was thinking that, man, U.S.
grocery stores are so lame because I was reading through like what foreign grocery stores have.
And there's very cool stuff. Obviously, Japan seems like the coolest. They have melon soft drinks.
they have a ton of different flavors of Kit Kat and whatnot.
But I think we're just numb to it because we live in the States.
But if you came from a foreign country and you saw spray cheese and pop tarts,
that probably would be such an American experience.
And it would be so, I mean, it's something we've seen across the World Cup,
as European visitors and foreign visitors have come to the States.
They do marvel at things that we think are mundane.
But spray cheese would blow my mind if I was from a country like Netherlands.
That definitely doesn't have some.
I think the thing about American grocery stores is just the abundance of options.
Just the scale of the thing.
If you just go to a supermarket in the suburbs, any supermarket, you know, I think if you're
coming, at least this was a famous thing from the Soviet Union to the United States,
you would just be astonished by the sheer number of options available to you.
So, yeah, this is a cool trend.
I love it.
Next time I go abroad or to another part of the country, I'll absolutely visit the grocery
store.
And one of the best parts about it is seeing, you know, some of the brands that you're
familiar with, but in a new light or just a much.
better version because often other countries have better candy than us. They have, you know,
Italy has Nutella, but without the added sugar. So it's kind of fun. Where's the fun in that?
Well, I mean, if you knew how much sugar was in Nutelli, you'd probably go for that. Okay, let's
sprint to the finish with some final headlines. The parent company of CNBC is buying a golf simulator.
Yep, Versant Media Group, the owner of channels including CNBC, MS now, and Golf Channel,
said it was buying the golf simulator company full swing for a mountain of cash.
$230 million.
The Tiger Woods-backed full swing makes golf and baseball simulators for consumers and
sports venues and provides the technology behind TGL, the indoor golf league founded by
Tiger and Rory Macquarie.
So what does the owner of cable stations want with Toby's favorite activity on a rainy day?
Diversification.
Spunned out of Comcast earlier this year, Versant knows its cable channels are on life support,
so it's been scooping up non-TV businesses like the AI stock platform stock story and now
golf simulators for new pathways to growth.
Toby, like the move?
I kind of like it.
And the reason why I have that kind of precursor in front of liking it is the fact that
full swing is not that good of a golf simulator.
Unfortunately, I have used it and it is not that accurate.
Like in terms of the top of the line models, the competitors that it's going again.
So that's always been frustrating.
It's been frustrating in TGL, which it's supposed to be, you know, this big showcase of this technology.
It just doesn't work sometimes.
So that's one reason why I think they may have overpaid for this business.
But I do like the bigger industry trend of media companies trying to find new business lines.
If you think about the New York Times, it's obviously a big media organization.
But its biggest moneymaker is its games division at this point.
So they have games to support its news.
Walt Disney company, it has a parks business to support its other entertainment endeavors.
So the fact that Versant is building around golf, I do think is a smart point.
plan. Did they get the right asset? That is what remains to be seeing. Maybe it should have bought
MapTap. MapTap. Someone's got to buy MapTap. That is one of the Morning Brew Daily's favorite
games. Moving on, the minions may be yellow, but they are still printing green. Over the July
4th weekend, minions and monsters pushed the despicable me slash minions franchise passed
$5.6 billion at the global box office, officially making it the highest grossing animated franchise ever.
But beneath that milestone is a yellow warning sign.
The latest installment opened to a franchise low $62 million domestically,
suggesting that after seven movies in 16 years,
audiences may finally be showing signs of a minion fatigue.
The film should still turn a nice profit
thanks to a modest $85 million budget
in strong international sales.
But for the first time, the minions look mortal, Neil.
Can you do that again in minionese, please?
I didn't understand a word you were saying.
What's ironic about this is that this is the highest critically reviewed installment in the Minions franchise.
And it has all these odes to old movies like King Kong, Casablanca, Citizen Kane, all these Easter eggs to things like The Matrix and ET.
So critics loved it.
It's apparently a great movie.
But yeah, it didn't bring in even remotely close to what had been a peak of $123 million for Minions.
The Rise of Gru in 2022.
It was facing a lot of confidence.
this weekend. I mean, the July 4th, there's a lot of other stuff going on. There was the World
Cup. The July 4th itself was on a Saturday, so there's just a lot of, you know, other things
potentially to do. You also have Toy Story 5 in theaters, which is probably taking some tickets away,
and then things don't get any easier this upcoming weekend if you're the Dispicable Me franchise,
because that's when the live action Moana comes. And so Disney is muscling in with Toy Story 5
and now Moana into Minion's turf. Finally, your most reckless friends might be
in Pampalona, Spain, where the annual running of the bulls began this morning.
In a tradition dating back to the 16th century, for the next seven days, huge fighting
bulls will be released down the streets of the city's old quarter as hundreds of daredevil's
try to outrun them. Already today, five people were injured, not too seriously, and 16 people
have died since 1924. The event, officially known as the Festival of San Fermin,
draws many visitors from around the world, and over 12,000 people were on hand to watch
the festivities begin this morning. Toby, this is like the complete opposite.
of grocery tourism. This is a much more dangerous version of that. We are the groceries,
but this year is especially noteworthy because it's the 100th anniversary of Ernest Hemingway's.
The Sun also rises, which is widely credited with transforming this from a local Spanish
tradition into an international event. And it really has become an international event.
Roughly 15% of the festival's attendees come from abroad. And 16% of those foreign bullrunners
were American. So we are by far the largest international group. That is more than four times
as much that come over from France, which is its neighbor. So we love running with the Bulls. And it
partly is traced back to this Hemingway novel. I know some people who went. I know, I know.
Really? Yeah, a couple of years ago. And they came back?
My friends with, yeah, and this frat, they went and they came back alive. I didn't see any
goring or anything, but this does happen. I mean, for the next seven days, you will open up any
news website and you'll see like six people gored at the running of the bulls eight people gored at
the running of the bulls it seems not for me it seems like an insane thing to do but maybe they should
have a leg of the tour de France that you said it started in Barcelona just go through it yeah I mean
I think uh they could you know they seem like a little safer they could probably out cycle the bulls
okay that is all the time we have thanks so much for starting your morning with us have a wonderful
Tuesday and I have a request go to your calendar and check what you're doing Thursday July 30th
If you have an opening that evening and live near New York,
you should definitely come out to a trivia show
we're putting on with our Morning Brew co-worker, Maxonomics.
The concept, beat the Morning Brew Daily hosts.
Instead of our typical trivia nights where we ask you questions,
you'll play against me and Toby to win prizes
and just have an overall great time.
Check out the link in the show notes for details,
and we can't wait to see you there.
If you ever thought that, man, I'm smarter than these two demokes,
this is the night for you.
So it should be fun, a very competitive atmosphere.
So definitely come out to a caveat and have a good night with us.
To share your thoughts on the episode or anything else, send an email to Morningbrewdaily
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Let's roll the credits. Emily Milliron is our supervising producer.
Raymond Lute is our senior producer.
Our producer is Olivia Graham and our associate producer is Olivia Lake.
Technical direction by Nina Miller.
Hair and makeup bailed after our first season.
Devin Emery is our president and our show is a production of Morning Brew.
Great.
So today, Neil. Let's run it back tomorrow.
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