NerdWallet's Smart Money Podcast - Coronavirus Special Edition, Part I: Mortgages and the Market

Episode Date: March 26, 2020

Mortgage rates dropped and then soared, making life difficult for people who wanted to refinance and buy homes. Mortgage and real estate Nerd Holden Lewis explains why that happened and what the future may bring. As always, send us your money questions! Email [e-mail] or call or text the NerdHotline at 901-730-6373.

Welcome to the NerdWallet Smart Money Podcast, where we answer your money questions in 15 minutes or less. I'm your host, Liz Weston. And I'm Sean Piles. As always, be sure to send us your money questions, call or text us at 901-730-6373. That's 901-730-NERD. Or email us at podcast at nerdwallet.com. In the next few episodes, we're doing something a little different. We'll be talking about what the coronavirus pandemic means for the economy and for your personal finances with the help of our fellow nerds. We'll begin with mortgage and real estate nerd Holden Lewis.

Holden, there's a lot of talk right now about how bad the economy could get. So how bad could the economy get? Before I talk about the economy, let's talk about our company's vision. At NerdWallet, we're creating a world where everyone makes financial decisions with confidence. We provide clarity for all of life's financial decisions. That means that we give the facts. We don't alarm people. We don't lull people into complacency either. Right now, we don't know how much people will suffer financially or how long. And so, you know, ignore people who speak with certainty because there is none right now.

Since we can't know what's going to go on in the future, let's talk a little bit about what's happened in the recent past. What in the world was going on with mortgage rates? But first, you have to know a few things about bonds. First, when bond prices go up, the bond yields go down. Second, when investors are worried and scared, they sell stocks and they buy the safest investments around, which are bonds, specifically the bonds that they buy are U.S. Treasury notes and mortgage-backed securities. Third, this panic buying causes the bond prices to rise, just like the price of an Uber rises in a downpour. So that makes the bond yields fall. And then fourth, mortgage rates follow bond yields. So around February 19th, things started looking particularly grim. And in response, investors sold stocks and they bought bonds and they pushed the bond yields and mortgage rates downward. And then around March 10th, things started looking even scarier. And investors began

selling stocks and bonds because they were so scared that they just wanted to hold cash. And bond prices went down, the yields shot up, and mortgage rates followed. And that's where we are now. So in response to this cash hoarding, the Federal Reserve dumped cash into the financial system in an unprecedented way. Normally, the Fed cuts short-term rates by like a quarter of a percentage point at a time. This time, the Fed cut rates by one and a half percentage points in 13 days. They didn't cut rates that fast in the fall of 2008. So it's a sign of deep concern about the health of the global financial markets. And, you know, dollars are just, they're the life preserver that everyone clings to from Topeka to Seoul. So the Fed is focusing on keeping money flowing domestically and internationally. So they're going to add cash to the financial system.

They've reduced banks' cost of borrowing. They're going to do other types of short-term lending just to keep dollars flowing internationally. And one of the side effects, I guess you could say, is that the reduction in the federal funds rate also cut interest rates on credit cards and home equity lines of credit. But that's not the main reason the Fed cut rates. The main reason, again, was to ease the flow of money. Okay. That makes a lot of sense. So Holden, what should people do if they want to refinance or buy a house in the near future?

Before you refinance, ask, do I have to refinance? Don't rush into a refi just because everyone is doing it. Know why you're refinancing. When you know your goal, you'll get a better deal. So it might be to get the lowest possible monthly payment. It might be to get rid of FHA mortgage insurance. It might be to shorten the term so you're paying less interest over the life of the loan. Or it might be to get a cash out refinance. Know your goal. Now, lenders got as many refinance applications and actually more than they could process during that plunge in rates. So they didn't cut rates as much as they actually could

have. Now, that's not greed. That is managing workload. And so when lenders have capacity as they process these loans and they move through the pipeline. They will drop rates to remain competitive. And so it pays to be persistent, just to check rates every day or so, and just to jump on a rate when they finally, a lender actually decreases its rates. Now, let's say you're planning to buy a home this year or maybe next. Know what you can comfortably afford. Our home affordability calculator lets you choose a price in the, quote, affordable range. So, you know, I suggest staying in that range instead of what we call stretching or aggressive.

And save two to six months worth of mortgage payments. Have them stashed away the minute you close on the loan and you get the keys. That way you'll be able to afford an emergency repair or an interruption in income. And your lender might actually require you to have that saved. It's called reserves. So now what if you are planning to sell your home this year or next. Pause. Don't rush. I think a lot of people might be tempted to sell before prices start falling. Well, if prices fall, and it's not a certain thing, it's probable, but if they fall, we don't know when, we don't know how much, we don't know how fast, and we don't know how long. So don't act in haste. And remember that

demographics mean that potential buyers will continue to outnumber sellers. People are going to be starting making babies that we'll see in December. People are going to realize that they hate the person they live with. And those two things also will drive even more homebuyer demand. All right, so I want to talk about people's fears. We're not going to repeat the debacle that happened from 2007 to 2014. This recession has a different cause than the last one, which began in the housing finance industry, and then there was a direct link to the housing market. This time is different. Regulators are going to require mortgage servicers to accommodate borrowers who suffer cuts and interruptions in income. Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, the FHA, and the VA

are all going to require servicers to offer relief to affected borrowers. You know, during the housing crisis, there was a lot of talk of moral hazard and borrowers aren't going to get blamed this time. And frankly, neither are lenders. Finally, let's talk about access to cash with a home equity line of credit or HELOC. Using HELOC in a crunch is a last resort. You could lose your home if you don't make the payments. So always know that. But if you want to have a HELOC to have that pool of money

available to tap, apply for it while you still have income. What if people don't know how solid their job might be? I think that's going to be the case for a lot of people right now and in the coming weeks. Should they go ahead and buy a house anyway? You know, I would say, again, don't rush into anything, especially with the possible job precarity, I'm really interested in what's going to happen with people who are in the middle of underwriting right now. They applied for a mortgage, they got approved, they're scheduled to close at some point, and now they've lost their job and their income. In the past, what has happened with that is the loan didn't go through and neither did the purchase. And so I think that that's probably the main concern really right now, is just kind of holding off until there's an understanding of whether that job is still secure. Good advice, Holden.

And thanks for all your insights. Now it's time for our takeaway tips. Know your goal if you're planning to refinance, since that will help you figure out what kind of loan to get. If you want to lower payments, consider a 30-year loan. If you want to reduce total interest paid and get the debt paid off faster, consider a 15-year loan. Next up, don't rush into a home purchase. Real estate prices are unlikely to crash,

as they did during the last recession, but a struggling economy could put more jobs at risk. Finally, consider applying for a home equity line of credit as a backup emergency fund. Do it while you're still employed and don't tap it for non-essentials. And that is all we have for this episode. Do you have a money question of your own? Turn to the nerds and call us or text us your questions at 901-730-6373. That's 901-730-NERD. You can also email them to podcast at nerdwallet.com. You can even email us your voice memos if that works for you. Also, visit nerdwallet.com slash podcast for more info on this episode. And remember to subscribe, rate, and review us wherever you're getting this podcast.

And here's our brief disclaimer, thoughtfully crafted by NerdWallet's legal team. Your questions are answered by knowledgeable and talented finance writers, but we are not financial or investment advisors. This nerdy info is provided for general education and entertainment purposes and may not apply to your specific circumstances. And with that said, until next time, turn to the nerds. Thank you.