NFL Stock Exchange: An NFL Draft Podcast - 13. Mock Draft Picks We Love and Hate With Austin Gayle (2 rounds!)

Episode Date: February 21, 2022

PFF's Austin Gayle joins Connor to go through his latest two round mock draft. Connor picks out his favorite picks, some he's struggling with and a breakdown of the wild quarterback carousel for this ...offseason. 0:00 - Intro 3:35 - The top two picks 8:50 - Austin’s favorite Top-10 pick 11:05 - Is Derek Stingley Jr. a top-five pick? 15:10 - How should the Giants attack the draft? 18:25 - Austin’s favorite top-20 pick 20:00 - Is Sam Howell enough to move on from Russell Wilson? 28:40 - Any picks Austin struggled with? 34:20 - What should the Lions do with their other pick? 41:50 - Second round

Transcript
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Starting point is 00:00:00 This episode is brought to you by our good friends at NFL Sunday Ticket on YouTube TV. I'm sure by now you've all gotten back into your Sunday routines, but they could be even better with NFL Sunday Ticket and YouTube TV. You get the most live NFL games all in one place, every game, every Sunday. And you can even watch up to four different games at once with MultiView, one of my favorite inventions of this decade. It's exactly what you need to catch all the action. Make your Sundays more magical. And also, YouTube TV is great.
Starting point is 00:00:35 I got it this year. It's awesome. Sign up now at youtube.com slash BS, device and content restrictions apply. Local and national games on YouTube TV NFL Sunday ticket for out-of-market games excludes digital only games welcome to the NFL Stock Exchange podcast in this week's early edition I am joined by PFF's Austin Gale who has just dropped a two round mock draft and we are going to go through some of the picks that I love some that I question
Starting point is 00:01:04 and go through Austin's process, as well as the crazy quarterback carousel that is going to take place in this offseason, whether it is Aaron Rodgers on the move, Russell Wilson, or even Derek Carr and how that impacts when this rookie quarterback class comes off the board. So let's get right into it. Let's ring the board. So let's get right into it. Let's ring the bell. Welcome to the opening bell of the NFL Stock Exchange. I'm your host, Connor Rogers. Trevor is on a much-deserved mini vacation, So I brought in some backup PFFs. Austin Gale, you probably know his voice and his face from the tailgate pod. Dude, I'm excited to have you on here.
Starting point is 00:01:51 As much as I miss Trevor a lot, I have to admit, this is going to be a lot of fun today. Absolutely. I appreciate you having me on. And also, I saw Trevor Sycamore's Instagram story, a little boomerang of some beach. I'm not sure where he's at. But it looks much-deserved and also like a phenomenal time this time of year. I didn't want to blow up his spot too much.
Starting point is 00:02:09 But yeah, Trevor is getting some much deserved relaxation before the NFL Combine. And guys like us don't really get a break until around June. So good for Trevor. He will be back shortly, though. This will not be a long hiatus. So today is going to be a little different. Yes, we are going to be mock draft focus. Most Monday shows for the NFL Stock Exchange either do a mock draft, a redraft, some kind of draft format. Today, Austin and I have a very unique outlook
Starting point is 00:02:36 as Austin is dropping a two round mock draft. As you're listening to this, there's a good chance that it's already live. Go check out the full thing. We're going to go through picks that we love, that we're seeing a lot, and some picks that we hate so far in the mock drafting world. It could be because of fit. It could be because you like the player and you don't want them to go to a bad team. There's a million different reasons. I think part of the allure of mock drafts is the outrage they cause, and a lot of today's show is going to be centered around that.
Starting point is 00:03:04 So, Austin, I kind of want to kick it to you. Is this your first two rounder of the year so far? It is my first two round mock draft for the 2022 NFL draft. I usually do one or two, two round mock drafts. I don't often venture to the three round, but it's one of my favorite times of the year. Honestly, I love going through the scenarios of the first and second rounds. it gives you an opportunity also to talk about a lot of players or at least reference acknowledge a lot of players that you just aren't doing in a lot of other content right your first round mock drafts are focused on 32 players and a lot of the content that you're doing this part of the year specifically before the combine is
Starting point is 00:03:41 top three top five players in each position doing a two-round mock draft really does get you to speak to the depth of the class or at least highlight the depth of the class at different positions yeah i really enjoyed reading through this because i think we get to see a lot of the names that i think this time of year creates an issue of there's so many no shot he'll be there right everybody's running the mock draft simulators and often the first replies and i get it there's a lot of times where there could be a picker too where you're just like man i just don't see that happening but eventually you get to the point where 50 to 60 players don't have a shot of making it out of the first round so when you do this exercise and look at two rounds you sit there
Starting point is 00:04:17 and go oh well somebody has to make it out at some point in this landing spot uh makes a lot of sense so i'm gonna start right at the top of this a pick or a lot of sense. So I'm going to start right at the top of this, a pick or a landing spot that I love that is very obvious, but I think it did not show up in your mock draft because he was already gone. I really liked the idea of Aiden Hutchinson staying in the state of Michigan, going to the Lions, fitting in with Dan Campbell and giving the Lions maybe one of their big identity splash moves that they've had in a long time where you know the guy is a high floor player you know he's probably gonna have a lot of success it's a need for them and he fits the mold I think of that fan base in this mock draft you had him going
Starting point is 00:04:56 number one over overall to the Jacksonville Jaguars the hot pick for them lately has been Evan Neal the offensive lineman so how do you look at Jacksonville right now? The scenario of taking a player that is your number one player in Aiden Hutchinson, number one overall, versus passing on an offensive tackle? Yeah, I think it's tough. And I do think that these sports books have it right. If you look at DraftKings, Evan Neal and Aiden Hutchinson are both plus 175 to go number one overall to the Jacksonville Jaguars because I do think the Jacksonville Jaguars will ultimately be splitting hairs
Starting point is 00:05:27 between those two players. There's a lot of value in taking an Evan Neal, who's arguably the top offensive tackle in this class. I know some do like Charles cross. Mike Renner specifically thinks Charles crosses the number one overall offensive tackle, the guy at Mississippi state others really like Iki Kwan who out of NC state,
Starting point is 00:05:42 but Evan Neal, in my opinion is this best of both worlds right cross is this uber athletic smooth moving pass protecting offensive tackle had over what like 800 pass blocking snaps and that mike leach mississippi state offense and then kiki akwanu is this road grading monster of an offensive tackle that in a run heavy offense will do wonders for you where evan neal is a balance of them both, and he's going to test Freaky at the Combine. He's number two on Bruce Feldman's Freaks list this past offseason. You know who's number one, though? It was Aidan Hutchinson.
Starting point is 00:06:13 I do think a lot of people's minds will change when Aidan Hutchinson ultimately goes to the Combine. I know there's a lot of conversation about him not being as athletic as some of the other edge players in this class, but I'll tell you what. I'm working on hutchinson podcast here at pff called hutch it's where i have opportunities to work with aden hutchinson his agency his teammates his coaches and everyone i talk to is like this guy's different his short shuttle's faster than some of the defensive backs at michigan david ojabo losing straight line races against aden hutchinson in
Starting point is 00:06:43 time at practice that's how explosive this dude is pushing 15 more pounds than David Jabo, right? Jabo's highlighted as this super athletic, explosive dude and Hutchinson still doing it with 15, 20 pounds more than him. So I do think once Hutchinson goes to the combine, his athletic testing should based off all that I've heard be very similar to what we saw from the bosses, right?
Starting point is 00:07:04 I'm not saying they're the same player. I think the Boses are a bit bendier, but still, the athleticism will be there. I really like the fit, obviously, for Hutchinson to stay in Michigan. He's from Dearborn, Michigan. His entire family's from Michigan. He's played his entire career in Michigan. I think I love that fit, but I ultimately think the talent's too good for him to be available at number two overall, and if I'm the Jacksonville Jaguars,'m siding with hutchinson over evan neal and what will ultimately be like a decision they're splitting hairs on yeah i think for me when it's all said and done hutchinson is gonna is grading out as a better player than evan neal which makes the scenario a really complex really interesting to kick things off and i know it's more of a we love this pick or we hate this pick
Starting point is 00:07:42 this is truly one where i am fully 50-50 on. I think why I love it is it allows Hutchinson to go to a place where he has a somewhat legit edge rusher, Josh Allen, in place there where you can see them working in tandem and feeding off each other. And sometimes one guy will draw a good matchup. They can really be interchangeable kind of players where if he goes to the Lions, as much as I like the young defensive tackles they took last year I think there might be hero expectations that are not and depends what they do in free agency of course as well I think
Starting point is 00:08:14 it puts some pressure on him that can be a tough initial landing spot could be a underwhelming rookie season from production standpoint where Jacksonville that might not actually be the case now why I don't like this pick necessarily is goes back to you'd like to see him stay in Michigan I think his reception from the Lions fans would be totally different than what's there in Jacksonville and then I think it also creates this narrative going forward of what has Jacksonville done for Trevor Lawrence and that's definitely a lot of pressure on everyone in that organization. So this is a pick I really struggle to go one way or the other with, you know, full spectrum.
Starting point is 00:08:51 I do feel if I was forecasting, right, a lot of this is what I would do in this situation. Sure. I would do at number one overall is take Aiden Hutchinson. And you're right. I think he's going to grade out as a better prospect respective to his position than Evan Neal. Now, for Jacksonville,
Starting point is 00:09:04 they're in a position where they need to do everything, throw the kitchen sink at developing Trevor Lawrence and adding talent around him. That's why Evan Neal went plus from plus 900, nine to one odds to be the number one overall pick. And over the last four weeks is now tied for first in odds to be the number one overall pick with a Hudson. Cause there's growing,
Starting point is 00:09:22 growing support of this idea that they're going to bring in someone that can help Trevor Lawrence, not necessarily that defense. I do think if I was forecasting Evan Neal is the decision from the Jacksonville Jaguars, however I stand by, I do think that Aiden Hutchinson would be my pick if I was ultimately on the clock. All right, so let's keep going down the board here. What is one pick in the top 10 that when you wrote it in,
Starting point is 00:09:43 you're like, man man that felt too easy like i didn't even think 30 seconds about it i just think this is such a layup that it actually might become that layup on trap night so i do think wide receiver to the jets is one of my favorite picks at 10 i do think them locking into their wide receiver one however i do have a trade at nine that ultimately keeps them from my wide receiver one in this class. But a wide receiver to the Jets at 10 feels right. And I think we're going to consistently see wide receiver mock to the Jets at that pick because they, similar to Jacksonville, need to do everything in their power to develop Zach Wilson. It's the number one thing on their list.
Starting point is 00:10:19 It doesn't matter if their defense is the worst in the NFL next year, if they're moving in the right direction in supporting Zach Wilson and improving this offense. I think a pick that felt too easy, honestly, with how this mock draft played out was Kyle Hamilton at eight to the Atlanta Falcons. He is arguably the best prospect in this class. You could argue that because of how talented he is and how versatile he is and what he's immediately going to do at the safety position.
Starting point is 00:10:42 The only reason I think I could see him slipping outside the top three, outside the top five five despite being pfs number two overall player is this positional value component right safety is one of the lowest paid positions in the nfl and that's reflected in the draft oftentimes not seeing guys come off and off the board at safety in the top five and top ten however if he falls as far as eight this atlanta falcons defense is bereft of talent like kyle Hamilton, bringing him in at eight. And I know there's some consideration at corner playing opposite of AJ Terrell, whether it's Ahmad Gardner or Derek Stingley. I think if Kyle Hamilton is available to the Atlanta Falcons at eight, which is how it played out in this mock draft, it's a sprint the card in situation.
Starting point is 00:11:18 He's that good of a player. I don't care that safety is low on the positional value chart. Yeah, I think the Falcons are interesting because they're a team that they have some leeway with recent hires, and they are trying to really transform that roster before Matt Ryan kind of rides off into the sunset and they stop kicking quarterback that can down the road. So Hamilton is where I often find myself. That to be his landing spot as one of the rare premium players in this draft.
Starting point is 00:11:44 All right, so I loved what you did with the Jets at 10 there. That is a pick I like. Whether it's Garrett Wilson, myself uh that to be his landing spot as one of the rare premium players in this draft all right so i loved what you did with the jets at 10 there that is a pick i like whether it's garrett wilson whether it's trailing burks even if it's drake london who was already off the board i think any of those three would be a win for zach wilson i'm gonna stay there though one pick that i hate and that i really want your guys explanation for because he is third on the big board is derrick stingley a corner at four to the new york jets I struggle with Stingley I see the ceiling I see the ball skills especially in 2019 I see the size the length the speed basically a build a corner in a sense but when and I know it's really hard to to you know value or lack of value or scare yourself with injuries uh inconsistent
Starting point is 00:12:21 play after that true freshman season and And just a matter of that, he is kind of become one of the biggest wild cards in this draft. And the fact that, you know, besides the Jalen Ramsey, you know, and we've had Jeff Akuda, but corners traditionally do not hear their name called in the top five, especially in a league that is limited,
Starting point is 00:12:39 what they can do. You guys are really high on Stingley. Sell me on that pick, not just the landing spot really the player as a top five pick to a team that on early downs they do run a lot of zone then on third down they go to a lot of man so there is the need there uh but they have a lot of needs and i'll argue this too it's a difficult pick at number four for the jets because i want to give them a blue chip talent i do think that derrick stingley is comfortably a blue chip talent in this class when healthy.
Starting point is 00:13:07 I think that he's that good. He's one of the few true scheme versatile cornerbacks in the NFL draft. I think in every draft, what gets one of the most under-discussed things is scheme versatility at the cornerback position. Ahmaud Gardner, as good as he is, is not nearly as scheme versatile as what Derek Stingley brings to the table. Trent McDuffie, who's a top 10 player on pff's draft board the washington cornerback is not going to play press man in single high concepts all all in his nfl career he's going to be limited to
Starting point is 00:13:32 two high concepts a heavy zone system derrick singly can do whatever you want if healthy and that's the biggest question mark if he can answer some of these injury red flags some of these injury concerns at the combine and in this pre-draft process people will covet him as this number one overall cornerback now i know reports are that teams are souring on him as cornerback one and more often cmod gardner is that i just feel that if you can answer those injury concerns derrick stingley will be the consensus cornerback one i think it's a lot of unknown with derrick stingley that's kind of pushing him draft down draft boards and rightfully so right like he has been inconsistent since he got hurt. But what he did at 18, 19 years old in 2019 against SEC competition,
Starting point is 00:14:10 some of the best receivers in all of college football that year and legit NFL talents, we won't probably see again. I'll say it again. We will not see that again. We will not see that young of a player, a true freshman, play that well in the SEC probably ever again. And if we can get that back in the NFL, like if he was draft eligible after that season,
Starting point is 00:14:27 he might've been the number one overall pick. Like that's how good he was that year. And I do take to this unknown, right? Like I don't like that we haven't seen that level of play from him since. I don't like that he's had injury concerns left and right. But you have to also think about the situation he was in at LSU.
Starting point is 00:14:42 I mean, this went from top of the class, Ed O'Dron, highlight is, you know, this top coach in college football, to a relative dumpster fire and that he's kind of pushed out and there's rumors that Ed O'Dron is committed to LSU and all that stuff. He's going to play wide receiver and quarterback this season. I do think that there wasn't legitimate stability from a leadership perspective at LSU.
Starting point is 00:15:02 I'm not making excuses for Derek Singley, but there are some reasons, right, to why maybe we didn't see him have the success after that 2019 season. I will say, if you want to argue an offensive tackle there, that's probably the pick I'd lean over Derek Stingley if you were going to tell me someone else, right? Because I do think that they want
Starting point is 00:15:17 Makai Becton insurance. A lot of reports out of Jets camp right now is that Makai Becton isn't, you know, taking to the offseason as you'd like. I mean, there's some injury concerns, how he's recovered from that injury, potentially adding weight. And even if Mekhi Becton does come back healthy, you still need help along that offensive line. I do think offensive tackle, when you consider positional value, could be a spot for them at four if they like a Kwanu, Cross, or Evan Neal. However, if you aren't going offensive
Starting point is 00:15:39 tackle, I do think Stingley would be my pick. Yeah. And to be fair to you, a Kwanu was off the board at three in this mock draft you had, which is obviously the favorite for Jets fans. He fits the scheme. A lot of people think he can kick inside if you had your dream scenario with Fant and Beckton healthy enough to be a tackle. So definitely a different perspective.
Starting point is 00:15:57 All right, before we move on from the top 10, I do want to touch on the New York Giants because when you have these tandem teams picking in the top 10, they're going to walk away with two top 10 picks. You just have to address that in the draft. I love your thought process. And it's one that not only I've gone with in almost every mock draft I've done for the Giants,
Starting point is 00:16:16 but one that I think Joe Shane will bring to them. And that is each side of the ball in the trenches. We are going to build this from the ground up. And you have an ownership group that wants to give Daniel Jones a fair chance, whether people agree with that or not. They want to do that the right way. They want things to be better for Saquon Barkley before they have to make a decision on him.
Starting point is 00:16:35 And if you do make picks in the trenches, that's something that will carry over to help whatever the future is of your quarterback and the future of your defense especially with wink martindale over there so you had evan neal at five to the giants i think any giants fan would sign up for that a guy that's played on the left and right side that helps out with the andrew thomas situation as well and seven george carloftis who this feels like the landing spot like we're gonna say this pick so many times and then it probably just happened so
Starting point is 00:17:03 are you with that theme for the Giants I know you did it in this mock draft but is that something you're seeing to be consistent yeah I'm 100% with that theme I think doing these mock drafts I think Giants fans want that too Giants fans I mean the most common mock draft for the Giants at five and seven according to PFS mock draft simulator which which tracks all that stuff. When you are picking for the giants, it logs every single pick is actually Evan Neal and Tyler Linderbaum. Now, Linderbaum is fantastic. And I do think he's the top center in this class.
Starting point is 00:17:32 He's four line, the top center. We've graded out as a draft, as a draft prospect since we've been doing this since 2014. But again, positional value is going to drive him down the board for me. And I'd rather attack a high positional value like edge here at seven. And i will be this entire draft process banging the table standing up for george karloftis as a top 10 pick i will and like i think this is ultimately the highest he goes or the highest he's
Starting point is 00:17:57 mock draft or he's you know put in mock drafts but i stand by george karloftis for me as a top 10 player i do think that the he is going to surprise a lot of people at the combine. He's not, again, as bendy as people will want. I think there will be concerns with what he does in the three-cone and the short shuttle. My comparison for him is Justin Tuck. I see a lot of Justin Tuck from George Karloftis, a guy that's super explosive in a straight line, super strong, can play, has inside-outside versatility, and is immediately just a very productive player
Starting point is 00:18:28 early on in his NFL career. This guy at 12 years old played for the U14 Greek National Water Polo Team. That's very difficult to do for Americans to even understand how hard that is to do. He credits a lot of his lower body strength to how good he was or how much he played water polo where you have to tread water for hours on end. He is going to do some wild wild stuff at the combine so much that you are going to more often
Starting point is 00:18:50 see him mock drafted inside the top 10 i think i've seen mock drafts where he falls outside the top 20 that's just absurd to me i don't see him falling that far he's a much better player than that yeah pass rushers always go early especially a guy that has the size uh i think the athleticism will be fine and he's a high floor player he's held up against the run at times he obviously the effort's phenomenal so i don't see any chance he makes it out of the top 15 let alone the top 20 all right moving outside the top 10 uh an absolute well before i get into the absolute dynamite outside the top 10 i want to ask you what was your favorite pick in the the next section of this mock draft so a lot of me wants to say ahmad gardner the cincinnati cornerback going to the baltimore ravens love the
Starting point is 00:19:29 place it plays a ton of single high uh plays a ton of man coverage i think that at that value too i think we've seen ahmad gardner mocked inside the top 10 a handful of times if you're able to get a talent like ahmad gardner in a scheme fit like baltimore at 14 i think that's a ton of value i also love i've seen some mock drafts one of of my favorite fits is even having George Karloff just fall all the way down to 14, a team that's known for developing defensive line talent, specifically edge talent, to go beyond what may be previously expected. Baltimore is going to be one of my favorite spots, depending on where they go. I think another pick that I really like is Chris Olave to the Cleveland Browns.
Starting point is 00:20:00 Cleveland Browns are being mock draft, or the mock drafts you see for the Cleveland Browns are one of the two Ohio State receivers. I think the more common one you see is Garrett Wilson of Ohio State, who I think is very dynamic, can do wild things after the catch. Chris Olave, smooth route runner, faster in a straight line than Garrett Wilson, and I think is a very high floor type of player, like high, high end wide receiver to floor and could develop into this wide receiver one not as a player not stylistically this is the comp but in terms of production and how confident i am in him as a pro i relate it to rashad bateman right rashad bateman was never you know kind of billed as this jamar chase changed the game type but you knew going in he was going to be very productive when healthy and going to be this high floor type of player. I think a lot of it has that same ceiling floor projection.
Starting point is 00:20:46 All right. So the pick that I have to talk about here, that is, it's a, it's the first time I've seen it. It's a trade. You had the Seahawks trading Russell Wilson to the commanders. Yes. The commanders folks. So now the Seahawks slot in at 11, the returns.
Starting point is 00:21:00 Good. They got the 11th overall pick in this draft. They got a first rounder in 2023, and they got a second rounder this year. So two ones and a two. Now at 11, they take Sam Howell, and I believe that would be the first quarterback to come off the board in this mock draft.
Starting point is 00:21:18 So I have to ask, do you see Sam Howell as QB1, or was this just more of the landing spot scheme fit? And for the Seahawks, in your eyes, is Sam Howell enough to move on from a Super Bowl era with Russell Wilson and start this over? Not just with Howell, but you're getting two premium picks that are going to be used to rebuild around him. I do feel ultimately Sam Howell will be my Qb1 in the 2022 nfl draft now there's still more time to come i think i want to see the combine i want to see how you know how reports come out of this interview process he's a guy that i have had an opportunity to talk to became really impressed with how he holds himself somehow for me is my qb1 right now i think things can change
Starting point is 00:22:01 in the pre-draft process as you learn more and as you share more. And as for Seattle, is he enough to move on from the Super Bowl era and Russell Wilson? I'll say no, but you have to start your search for the quarterback of the future at some point. I think at 11, Sam Howe is enough to at least begin that search. And I don't think for NFL draft, when you have conversations about the NFL draft and you have analysis around the NFL draft, there's enough conversation around the search for a quarterback is not one and done. You need to begin that search for the quarterback of the future, and that may not hit the first time you take a Sam Howell.
Starting point is 00:22:36 You might have to pull a situation like the Arizona Cardinals and take Kyler Murray after taking Josh Rosen. You have to start that pursuit, though. I think Sam Howell has enough tools, a rocket arm, mobility, 6'2", to where you can start your search with Sam Howell. But it doesn't end with him, right? You don't have to go full New York Giants with him and commit three, four years and create excuses for Daniel Jones to a point where you're going
Starting point is 00:22:57 to consider taking his fifth-year option if he doesn't play well. What you can do is begin your search with Sam Howell, recognize what he's good at, recognize what he's not, and identify, get more evidence to identify whether or not you want to put the resources in, the two first-round picks that you've invested in, and building around Sam Howell. And I think the reason for me mocking this trade is talking to the reporters here at PFF, Ari Mayrove and Doug Kine. They feel 51% likely that Russell Wilson is not a Seattle Seahawk. 51%, right over the edge, right? Right over that 50-50 chance. Right over the edge that he's not a Seattle Seahawk. 51%, right over the edge, right? Right over that 50-50 chance.
Starting point is 00:23:27 Right over the edge that he's not a Seattle Seahawk in 2022. So trying to be realistic with what kind of situations could be in, I think Washington has the draft capital to do it and has a roster in place where I think they can compete with Russell Wilson. Some people are mocking a Malik Willis or a Sam Howell or a Matt Corral to the Washington Commanders at 11. I'll tell you right now, this roster is better than getting a rookie
Starting point is 00:23:50 on a rookie contract to come in and try and compete. Their shortest path to a Super Bowl is trading for a veteran, whether that's Russell Wilson, Aaron Rodgers, Kirk Cousins, Derek Carr. They need to go get someone that can win with what is objectively a talented roster. Terry McLaurin, Antonio Gibson, on defense, Chaz, Chase Young, Montez Sweat,
Starting point is 00:24:07 they have talent there, enough talent to where a good quarterback, a borderline top 10, top 12 quarterback, could bring them on a postseason run. Russell Wilson, I think, is better than that and ultimately could win with the Washington Commanders. And all this is not so much that Russell Wilson hasn't played well enough in Seattle, they have to move on. It's more about the reports you hear about their relationship souring him maybe him both sides
Starting point is 00:24:28 maybe not wanting to move forward with Russell Wilson that is what's driving this not so much that Seattle should trade Russell Wilson because he hasn't played well enough but more so that I'm buying into these reports right I'm buying into these reports that Russell Wilson and that relationship in Seattle has soured to a point where they will look to move on from him this offseason I am too honestly keeping with the Russ topic if you know this has lingered for so long this frustration and usually there's a reason for that right if the frustrations if they wanted that that noise to go away the Russ camp would put an end to that right and I think it's to the point where the Seattle side is absolutely frustrated as well so I don't think this is a one-sided thing. Now, do I think Seattle as a franchise is to the point where
Starting point is 00:25:08 they want to fully move on? They're probably still kind of treading water with that. While Russ, it's always seemed like over the last calendar year that he's been very open to moving on. And if you're Seattle, when you look at his age, his body type, you might want to sell a year early rather than sell a year or two late if you can get this kind of return. And I would argue another piece of the puzzle, too,
Starting point is 00:25:30 is Pete Carroll is the oldest coach in the NFL. You don't know how much longer you're going to be working with Pete Carroll. Now, if Pete Carroll does not want to be a part of this kind of rebuild, you ultimately have to commit to Russell Wilson and try and exercise as much as you can out of this window. However, the reports from Doug Kideai a reporter here at pff are you know asking some people around the nfl do you think russell wilson will have to force his way out of seattle but the answers to that are he might not have to because seattle could be willing
Starting point is 00:25:56 to move on so there is smoke there whether or not it will result to fire will be tbd yeah i'm with you that's going to be one of the you know once we get through the aaron ro noise that's the guy everyone's gonna have their eyes on and I actually love the Washington landing spot I agree with you the roster is really good I think if you're Washington you're looking at that division right now and you're going okay we know the Giants are going to rebuild we know that right the Eagles are kind of in this middle ground point where we're interested to see where they go next with the three first rounders and Jalen Hurts and then you have the Cowboys who are gonna lose someone this offseason right we don't know if it's gonna be Amari Cooper we don't know if it's gonna be Michael Gallup Dalton Schultz Randy Gregory we don't know but we know they're gonna lose someone and that kind of opens the
Starting point is 00:26:37 door for hey maybe you can take advantage here but can Russ get us over the top all right before we move out of the uh 10 to range, two picks, I cannot get enough of the Chargers with Jamison Williams. Yes, you'll have to be patient, but Mike Williams is going to test free agency. We're assuming. I think Jamison fits like a glove for Herbert pushing the ball vertically. We know what Jamison can do down the field with that. And the other one I like that I think I've put in most of my mock draft so far is the Eagles taking Devin Lloyd with their last first rounder everybody usually responds when you give the Eagles a linebacker in the first round over the last couple years Howie will never do this well maybe it's
Starting point is 00:27:14 time Howie changes a little bit because I think Devin Lloyd is worth every bit of that top 20 pick especially for an Eagles team that needs a game changer in the middle of their defense yeah I think every mock draft I do from here, the from here till April, we'll have Jamison Williams at 17th, the Los Angeles charters. It's too awesome of a fit. And I think that's with or without Mike Williams,
Starting point is 00:27:34 right? If they find a way to bring Mike Williams back, still add Jamison Williams, something that I was having a conversation with Mike runner on the tailgate podcast recently about you do not. When you are building a Superbowl competitive roster, you don't need a top flight receiver you need multiple the best teams in the NFL don't just have a Devante Adams they have a Tyreek Hill a Travis Kelsey things beyond that right you look at the you look at the um Los Angeles Rams they traded for Odell
Starting point is 00:27:59 Beckham Jr. when Robert Woods was healthy you know they said hey we got Cooper Kopp who's going to lead the league in receiving yards receptions and touchdowns this year we have Robert Woods was healthy. They said, hey, we got Cooper Kopp, who's going to lead the league in receiving yards, receptions, and touchdowns this year. We have Robert Woods, who's a top-flight receiver himself, and we're still going to go get Odell Beckham Jr., Buffalo Bills with Stephon Diggs, Cole Beasley, Gabriel Davis. They want to add Dawson Knox. Every team, top team in the NFL, top offenses,
Starting point is 00:28:18 don't have a good receiver or even two good receivers. They have multiple offensive playmakers. I think the Chargers don't have a need at receiver, but I think it's a luxury they should chase at 17, especially if Jamison Williams is available with the injury discount you're getting, obviously getting hurt in the national championship. And then you bring up Devin Lloyd. I love Devin Lloyd.
Starting point is 00:28:37 Devin Lloyd's top linebacker for me. I think he draws, rightfully so, the Fred Warner comparisons in this draft class. He has the size, the athleticism, the recognition on tape, the play recognition, the football IQ. Now, I, similar to Harry Roseman, don't love taking linebacker inside the top 10, top 15. But if he does get to this point where he is there at 19 and you have this embarrassment of riches from first-round picks, yeah, it's like you have so many first-round picks,
Starting point is 00:29:00 go get another legit talent at a position, an obvious position of need. So at 19, I can get behind it. Now there are other teams with only one first round pick, most teams with only one first round pick. And if you are spending that top 15, top 20 pick, you're only picking the first round on a Devin Lloyd. You're just not going to have the impact, right? Of other players that you can get, whether it's receiver, edge, offensive tackle, et cetera. So I think the Eagles are a prime landing spot for him at that 19 spot. All right, before we move into the back end of round one and eventually round two, I want to remind you guys right now
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Starting point is 00:30:10 or NFL players on your favorite team yourself, you can get that and so much more. Support our podcast. Use the promo code NFLSC for 25% off. That's right, 25% off any subscription. All right, let's move to the back end of round one uh was there anything you you struggled with here actually i want to take this a different direction we talked about a lot of picks that we liked from 10 to 20 was there any because now
Starting point is 00:30:34 a lot of the town i think the meat and potatoes of this class is really that top 20 this is where it gets a little bit more tough i think something i struggle with is where do i slot in jordan davis right and i'm not i'll say this right now, I am not on board with this surge of Jordan Davis to the Chargers at 17. I much prefer Jamison Williams at 17 over Jordan Davis. And a fit I've come to like a lot is Buffalo Bills at 25 grabbing Jordan Davis, who will see some talent along the defensive line, likely to be a free agency.
Starting point is 00:31:03 I think bringing in a guy to compliment at all of her like that would be special. I think there are other teams towards the back end of the first round where you can start to see that make sense. But honestly, the Buffalo bills are one of my favorite spots. I think beyond that, it's also what do the Pittsburgh Steelers do at the quarterback position?
Starting point is 00:31:17 I have them making a trade for Derek Carr in this mock draft. I think that's another team, right? Similar to Washington. And I know Mike Tomlin was at the senior bowl, hocking in on Malik Willis, and he loves his quarterback class, whatever. The Pittsburgh Steelers have too good of a roster to go get a rookie quarterback and essentially kill this window of TJ Watt, Cameron Hayward, Minka Fitzpatrick. They have too much talent on this roster to do that, in my opinion, so much that they are another one of these teams, similar
Starting point is 00:31:43 to Washington, where they should go make a play for a veteran quarterback that could be available on the market. Now, I do feel that the likelihood that Derek Carr has moved on from is increasingly less now that they have signed Josh McDaniels as their new head coach. And you see reports that they're considering signing him to an extension worth $40 million plus per year for Derek Carr. But I think Pittsburgh could be in a position to give them an offer they can't refuse, right? And that they could trade multiple first-rounders and a second-round pick to go get Derek Carr
Starting point is 00:32:10 because they objectively, in my opinion, have a better roster than what the Raiders have right now and are in a better position to win with Derek Carr than the Raiders are in right now. And that's the reason, right? It's not that Derek Carr has played poorly. It's not that the Las Vegas Raiders need to move on from him because he's not playing well it's that this roster simply won't be good enough to win with Derek Carr until you have to back up the Brinks truck and make him a top five played player at the position and at that point if you pay Derek
Starting point is 00:32:36 Carr all this money guess what your window of adding talent at different positions where they need upgrades at four spots along the offensive line multiple spots at receiver pretty much every position on defense outside of Max Cros neek and gawkway by the time you try and add all that talent derrick carr is going to be nearing what 35 36 years old and this window is over pittsburgh right now has a good enough roster to win with derrick carr where it makes sense to trade multiple first round picks potentially to go get him and compete for a deep postseason run this is a team that went to the playoffs with the lowest graded quarterback in the nfl and ben rossberger tell me they can't win with Derek Carr. I think you'd be
Starting point is 00:33:08 foolish. Yeah, I agree. I actually love it for the Steelers. I am very curious to see what the Raiders do. My gut feeling is they hold on to him. McDaniels looks at it and goes, I can win with that guy. I sold you the plan. We can get the most out of him. We're going to take a wide receiver in this draft, which you had them doing at 22 with Triling burks my wide receiver one in this draft so i obviously love the value here but my favorite pick actually in this 20 to 30 spot excluding the burks pick has to be tyler linderbaum making it to 23 which i don't think is insane let me make that clear i think everybody uh is very conflicted on when linderbaum goes here is it a scenario where you know he's so good he has to go in the top 10 or a center at
Starting point is 00:33:45 that size which i think is what the nfl is looking at him being sub 300 pounds can we use a top 20 pick on him you have him going to the cardinals this obviously helps kyler murray this obviously helps their run game uh this gives them a certified stud with a late first round pick that also fits their offensive scheme because of how athletic he is so linder bomb at 23 one do you think there's a shot this can happen you guys have him as a top 15 player i will be surprised if anyone doesn't have him as a top 15 player and two uh i don't even really need to ask but why does this make so much sense for them yeah for number one and i agree with you that i could see this happening purely again from a position of value perspective center is not going to be coveted right like you don't you're not going to draft Linderbaum top 10 top
Starting point is 00:34:29 15 over even you know players that are worst prospects you know respective to their position just because adding a center with one of those valuable picks you're not going to get that return on investment whereas drafting one if he falls as good as him at 23 you can start to get behind it sincerely and i think that's what arizona will ultimately do because he's a perfect fifth the offense you want to run like exactly what you said they want athletic moving offensive linemen for the type of run concepts they want to do and honestly they need to do everything in their power to bring kyler murray and that relationship back to full force i think tyler linderbaum's a great start for that all right looking outside of the top 30 picks,
Starting point is 00:35:05 we'll end the first round here before we take a brief look at round two. The Lions here, obviously picking for the Super Bowl champion, Los Angeles Rams. You had them going Matt Corral. Now I actually think this is decent value for Corral, who I do like, and I don't really love the quarterbacks in round one of this draft,
Starting point is 00:35:21 but I think this is fine. I got to be transparent here. This is a spot for the Lions that very often when I've been doing my mock drafts, I know I've had them before he blew up at the Senior Bowl. I've had them go Malik Willis here. And then recently I had them go Kenny Pickett here. You had them go Matt Corral.
Starting point is 00:35:38 And Lions fans have sold me on not taking a quarterback in this draft. And at first I was like, you know, it's kind of crazy. You obviously are not going to be thinking playoffs with Jared Goff for the next five years. That's not, that's not really why you acquired him. He's shown you that, you know, what he is and you'd rather get really good players in this spot. So I know that's how the response is going to be from Lions fans to you with Corral. And as much as I've made quarterback picks here, I have heard that reception and I go, I have heard that reception. And I go, I don't think you're wrong.
Starting point is 00:36:06 I can, you can sell me on going a different direction here. I've had N'Kobe Dean go here, which a lot of people thought was late. I don't think it's that crazy because of his size. So one, Corral to the Lions. Why do you like it? And two is, is this the year, because it's 32, it's not number two overall,
Starting point is 00:36:21 that the Lions look for life after golf? Or do they just keep kicking this can down the road because Dan Campbell and Brad Holmes are on five-year deals? I think the argument for kicking the can is that Jared Goff, whether you cut trade or whatever him in 2022 is due $30 million. And like, you know, a lot of people buy into this sunk cost fallacy where if we're paying him $30 million, we might as well play him.
Starting point is 00:36:42 But the short, the shortest path to a Super Bowl for the Detroit Lions is not watching Jared Goff play okay again next year and him limping to a four, five, six-win season. Say seven-win season for the Detroit Lions, a team that right now, according to DraftKings Sportsbook, has the lowest percentage chance to win the NFC and the lowest percentage chance to win the Super Bowl.
Starting point is 00:36:59 What is the point? I'll say this. What is the point of watching Jared Goff play another 17-game season as your starting quarterback? There isn't one outside of, well, we're paying him $30 million. That's, again, sunk cost fallacy. Start, I said this with other teams as well, with Seattle's rafting at 11. Start your search for your next quarterback now because you are not going to benefit from watching Jared Goff
Starting point is 00:37:21 play a 17-game season where you know he is not your quarterback of the future. No one is buying into Jared Goff being the quarterback of the future, especially at the rate that you're paying him. And while it does suck that you're going to pay a Jared Goff $30 million to either sit the bench or whatever you do with Jared Goff, it's better for him to sit the bench and for you to learn about a potential quarterback of the future. There are teams that like Matt Corral, right?
Starting point is 00:37:42 And I'm not saying this quarterback class is good. I'm not saying Matt Corral should be considered you know even a first round pick in other classes but what you have to do if you are the detroit lions is begin this search for a new quarterback because you don't know what's going to happen next year jared goff could you luck himself into a seven game win season six game win season and guess who goes first overall bryce yo guess who goes second overall cj stroud yeah and you are on the outside looking in again you know a bird in the hand is where two in the bush you have a 30 second overall pick where you can get that fifth year option on a quarterback that yeah maybe you're not buying is this next trevor lawrence but at least you'll have an opportunity to put him in
Starting point is 00:38:17 a situation and see how good he is and get more evidence on him being this quarterback of the future because you'd much rather in my opinion pay Jared Goff $30 million, whether he's cut or on the bench, and see Matt Corral go 1-16, 2-15, than see Jared Goff win six or seven games for you. Because guess what? If Matt Corral does that for you, you're in prime position to go get a legit quarterback prospect in next year's class, whether that is Bryce Young or C.J. Stroud,
Starting point is 00:38:42 whoever ultimately is this consensus quarterback one and what a lot of people are seeing as a top quarterback class too often lions fans are saying if we take a quarterback in the first round this year then we can't take one next year that's not true that's not true you know that's not true with any quarterback you take in any first round right like number one number two overall picks probably excluded but you don't your quarterback search is not one and done it's like okay we drafted matt corral 32nd overall we're going to build around him for three years no no you're not you're going to play him see if there's enough there to build around him and if there's not and he does go 1 and 16 2 and 15 as
Starting point is 00:39:13 maybe some people would expect you're in a prime position to actually get an upgrade at that position i i just don't understand why g20 lions fans aren't excited at the opportunity to start this quarterback search now rather than kick the can down the road into the unknown and what all could be with Dan Campbell and how good he was last year a 7-8 win season where they don't make the playoffs and they're outside the quarterback class in 2023 I think I'll argue for them they want good players and they want short things and that's there's no such thing as that in any draft there certainly isn't a lot of that at pick 32 in any draft so I think for them looking at the roster how bare bones it was
Starting point is 00:39:49 from the previous regime and really the previous head coach who had obviously a lot of roster influence is that they know they are so you know they are lacking in so many other areas from that that they want to keep stacking the deck in those areas with this 30 second pick but I get your obviously I get your I've done it myself like i said with malik willis with kenny pickett uh you had corral go here at 32 at some point you need to be thinking quarterback and i do think i have found myself in a bad habit not recently but very early on in this mock draft process november was when i launched my first one i said it a lot in december of constantly going cj stroud and and bryce young like you constantly you go like okay let's build the plan to go get those guys and a lot in December of constantly going CJ Stroud and Bryce Young.
Starting point is 00:40:28 Like you constantly, you go like, okay, let's build the plan to go get those guys. And as much as there's promise there, they are very promising NFL prospects. We have seen, I mean, let's be real. This time last year or the day after the draft, when people dropped their mock draft for the following year already, Sam Howell was a top five pick. Everybody was like, okay, sam howell's the next guy up how do you get sam howell it happens as a rattler oh my god spencer rattler was a top three pick spencer rattler's not even in this draft because of how things fell apart so i think there is a lot of risk with falling in love with the idea of what's ahead in the next class now there
Starting point is 00:41:00 are times right like i said i don't love this quarterback class but the lions are picking at 32 in this spot and get what, in my eyes, is a top three quarterback in this class. They're not sitting there at nine like the Broncos or 11 as the commanders are going. We just have to take a guy. We have to take a guy in the top 15. And the thing I would add to that, too, is I will not, at any point in this pre-draft process, be arguing for them to take a quarterback at number two overall.
Starting point is 00:41:22 I just won't. No, ever. Ever. And I won't. But because they have this luxury of picking 32nd overall and as we know with rookie contracts if you're drafted in the first round you're given this opportunity with a fifth year option which is so valuable for quarterbacks but the highest paid position in the nfl i just think it'd be foolish not to right because it doesn't keep you from drafting a quarterback in 2023 and
Starting point is 00:41:42 2024 and beyond but what it does do is start this process, right? If you take a Trayvon Walker here, a Jalen Petrie here, or another player that you feel is a sure thing or is going to help you stack the deck, it's not going to have the same impact as finding out if Matt Corral's good or not, right? Like finding out Matt Corral is someone you can build around is so much more valuable than bringing in, say,
Starting point is 00:42:01 a Jalen Petrie, who I love, out of Baylor and having him play really well for your football team. Because guess what if he plays well enough and jared goth plays well enough and you're on the outside looking in in 2023 we're going to be having the same conversations again and you're ultimately in this quarterback purgatory where you have to do something like what the washington commanders have to do and trade multiple first round picks say for a russell wilson or pittsburgh has to trade multiple first round picks for a derrick carr go start this quarterback search now. I'll be banging that table all season.
Starting point is 00:42:27 All right. And you had them getting Jalen Petrie with the 34th overall pick anyway. So obviously the quarterback would go at 32 because of the value of that fifth year option. All right. Moving on to round two, the pick that jumps out to me right away. I would love to see this happen. I'm not convinced he gets there. But like I said, we can't play that game every single week. Somebody has to fall.
Starting point is 00:42:45 Zion Johnson to the Bears at 39. I look at the Bears and go, man, who is going to make it from the offensive line? And I think there's a chance they're proactive and free agency on the offensive line. Obviously, you have Ryan Poles there, a guy that values the line. They know they have to be better in front of Justin Fields. In this scenario, though, which is almost a dream scenario,
Starting point is 00:43:03 somebody who I've liked to teams like Tennessee in the first round before, Zion makes it to 39 for the Bears. He's number 41 on the big board, so the value completely aligns there. Obviously, you see that one happening, but that just seems like a no-brainer for Chicago. I think it's not just a no-brainer. It's a dream scenario, like you said. If Zion Johnson, who I think is one of the top interior offensive line prospects in this class behind Linderbaum, gets that far,
Starting point is 00:43:29 they're going to be in such a good position to sprint the card in, in my opinion. Zion Johnson, I think everyone said it down at the Senior Bowl. If you had to start an offensive lineman from that Senior Bowl tomorrow in the NFL, Zion Johnson felt like the guy that would hit the ground running the most. And that's not to say he's a perfect prospect.
Starting point is 00:43:44 That's not to say he's this guy that should be a top 10 pick, but you feel confident in his floor. You feel confident in his body type and what he can do at the next level early in his career in Chicago. Guess what needs that? They need guys that can play well. Now they, they have a window. They have a window with Justin Fields to go win with him on a rookie contract, go bring in players that can support him now, not in two or three years now because chicago has this luxury this cheat code in the nfl that is having a quarterback on a
Starting point is 00:44:10 contract which saves you money in free agency and saves you to spend elsewhere and add in valuable picks all right so looking at the early stages of round two who was the player here that you're like man i can't believe he's still on the board i feel like people are gonna expect him to go on round one i wish i could him to go on round one. I wish I could have fit him into round one, but instead he falls out and falls into the right spot. I mean, there are multiple players. I think Jalen Petrie was a guy that I wanted to mock
Starting point is 00:44:33 to the Detroit Lions at 32, but then thought more about the quarterback situation, et cetera. But getting him at the top of the third round, I think also our second round, Jahan Dotson is a guy that I do really like. And could he sneak into the background? Absolutely. Or back of the first round, but getting him to Houston at the top of the second round johan dotson is a guy that i do really like and could he sneak into the background absolutely or back of the first round but getting him to houston at the top of the second round is something i really liked as well kenny pickett and carson strong both come off the board in the second round for me kenny pickett going to the atlanta falcons who i do think need to bring in
Starting point is 00:44:57 a quarterback that can redshirt behind matt ryan right matt ryan's on the books for 45 million dollars in 2021 and it does not look like he's going to be playing in Atlanta, really in the NFL for much beyond his last contract, right? He has 2021 and 2022 and 2023 seasons left on his deal. So getting a quarterback that could come in and redshirt behind a Matt Ryan, I think is positive. They could look at a Malik Willis if he does fall today too, et cetera. And then Kenny Carson strong going to the Indianapolis Colts where Chris
Starting point is 00:45:23 Ballard has kind of expressed his uncertainty on what they want to do with Carson Wentz, bringing in the quarterback again, where you're not confident in him being this top 10 player, but still likes some of the tools he brings to the table. I think Carson Strong to Indianapolis was another fit I liked. Yeah, so let's stay on that one, and then we'll go back to Kenny Pickett making it to 40.
Starting point is 00:45:40 With the Colts, man, they are in such a unique situation. Ballard and Dodds have done a good job of building this roster uh at times capitalizing on a division that has been not the best especially when you really focus in on Jacksonville and you know obviously Houston what's going on there you basically have half the division that is non-competitive so it's you in Tennessee with under under Mike Rabel has been good but you look at the Colts right now they're in this unique spot where you know Carson Wentz has spilled milk right you're not going to go back and stare at it and yell at it and cry over it I understand why people are there's a lot of reasons to be mad and not being on board with that move but it's over it happened it's done now in round two you take Carson Strong who has made big plays on tape he
Starting point is 00:46:22 has a big arm everyone knows that he's a big pocket passer that can push the ball vertically down the field but i think a lot of people might look at this pick and and have you know is this just a boosted jacob eason kind of guy is this or are we going to go out and get a veteran a bridge starter and sit strong behind him what did the colts do here at this point that quarter I just don't see a clear-cut answer like I don't see them being involved in obviously a Rodgers a Russ sweepstakes I mean if you go Jimmy G are people gonna flip out because you just missed right you just missed on Wentz that's not enough for me but is Carson Strong the answer around too I don't think that
Starting point is 00:46:59 is either so I don't know what to do with this team right now I mean the issue is is that there isn't a good answer because you've pushed your chips essentially in Carson Wentz's pocket and it hasn't panned out as evidenced. I think two decision makers are in a similar spot from that standpoint. Chris Ballard at Indianapolis Colts trading a first-round pick for Carson Wentz and then the Carolina Panthers trading a second-round pick and extending that fifth-year option to Sam Darnold. You saw the press conference with Matt Rule talking about that decision we felt like it was a good decision
Starting point is 00:47:27 at the time now we're second guessing it right these teams made failed bets and now they're reaping what they sowed and now for the indianapolis colts i think if you like one of these quarterbacks that falls today too because there will be multiple right i do think kenny pickett carson strong could be that you could see mal could see Malik Wills potentially fall there. I think a lot of people don't think he's ready in year one or year two. But you might want to start again this quarterback search for the future now rather than banking on trying to get this guy in 2023 or 2024 because Carson Wentz, if he is the starter,
Starting point is 00:47:59 is not going to lose so many games to where the Indianapolis Colts are picking inside the top five. He's just not like they almost made the playoffs last year but ultimately in the final season it's 14 point favorites lost to jacksville jaguars and did not make the playoffs now i think i could see them not going quarterback in round two but bringing in carson strong to back up or start ahead of carson wentz to begin this quarterback search just feels like a better bet than watching them hit purgatory again with Carson Wentz and even if they do make the postseason right losing in the first or second round and then looking at themselves in the face and thinking what's next
Starting point is 00:48:35 because it's not Carson Wentz we found that out after two seasons because I think that's what ultimately they will be yeah it's I you're just so hard to figure out right now and ballard needs a creative answer but that might cost something that they were not prepared to move on from if that's the route i think there's an important distinction around failed bets in the nfl at the quarterback position you know failed bets with single draft picks are not nearly nearly as bad because everyone looks like oh my gosh you drafted this guy in the top 10 or the top 15 at quarterback position he didn't pan out you set the franchise back two three years it doesn't have to be that way you can move on from quarterbacks faster than that as evidenced by the arizona cardinals with kyla murray you don't have to commit three four years
Starting point is 00:49:18 to a quarterback that you draft inside the top 10 or the top 15 but what are failed bets what does set a franchise back multiple years is when you trade multiple picks for a quarterback and agree to this monster contract which is exactly what the colts did which is exactly what the rams did with jared goff and now the rams made an incredible play to sell all their draft picks and obviously shoot the moon to go get matthew stafford and and go win a super bowl but there are teams that aren't in that position right there are teams that have made failed bets at the quarterback position by giving them a monster contract or trading for the wrong guy and that's ultimately put them in a position where they've
Starting point is 00:49:52 had to double down and make things worse right the rams because of the failed uh contract with jared goff have to trade multiple first round picks and try and shoot the move with matthew stafford the san francisco 49ers because of giving jimmy g the contract and obviously trading for him they trade multiple first round picks to go get Trey Lance the failed bets in trading for quarterbacks and paying quarterbacks are infinitely worse infinitely franchise setting back more than swinging a bat in the first round on a quarterback on a rookie contract right it's not like the Jarmarcus Russell era where if you draft a player number one overall and you pay him like this 80 million dollar contract out of the gate that's, you can set a franchise back pretty quickly
Starting point is 00:50:27 with rookie contracts and how those are positioned. Now you're drafting a Sam Howard 11, if the Seattle Seahawks and move on from Russell Wilson, you can miss on that pick and still fight your way back. Right. It's just a lot easier than that, man. That's the theme of this mock draft. I mean, you had Russell Wilson, Derek Carr, Aaron Rodgers all on the move, and I'm sure it has a lot to do with everybody looking at the Rams, and they said, we need quarterback to be better to get over this hump. We cannot get over this hump. We lost the Super Bowl.
Starting point is 00:50:55 We're going to go for it with Matthew Stafford. And yes, they went for it in a lot of other areas, but that's the one that stands out in terms of the premium capital, in terms of the money and what it's going to be. And it worked. And you know what? It might not work for Denver this year if they tried. It might not work for Pittsburgh or the Commanders, but at least you're trying to win a Super
Starting point is 00:51:12 Bowl. You're not just trying to stay competitive or treading water. And I think it's going to be a much more common trend. So let's stay with quarterback here. We're going back a little bit now. Kenny Pickett at 40 to the Falcons, 47 on the big board right here. Someone that you almost can't find a mock draft anywhere that doesn't have him in the first round at this point. Is Kenny Pickett a hard sell for you as a round one quarterback pick?
Starting point is 00:51:37 Right now, yes. I think the age concerns me a bit. Everyone talks about, well, he's played the best football of any of these guys. He's graded the best in his final year at Pittsburgh. He was an older player though, right? It took time for Kenny Pickett to get to that. A lot of years for him to get to that level. And when you're banking, like think about Sam Howell. Sam Howell is the only like true junior quarterback in this class that's viewed among the top six.
Starting point is 00:51:58 And we haven't seen the year that Kenny Pickett had in terms of his development from Sam Howell yet. That year for him will be in the NFL. So you think about what Sam Howell can do in another year. We've seen that year from Kenny Pickett, the collegiate level, and he dominated at Pittsburgh, but we still haven't seen that from Sam Howell. Age matters so much in production, not because you need to draft young players, but because if you see guys get to their 22, 23-year-old year
Starting point is 00:52:19 at the quarterback position and they dominate, it's so much different than seeing quarterbacks dominate at 19 and 20 years old. It speaks to just what they could be from a development standpoint. That's why I do disagree with a lot of the Malik Willis, Josh Allen conference comparisons, right? Well, well two or three years in the NFL, maybe we'll have this Josh Allen, like leap Malik Willis has been in the NFL or been in college football for a
Starting point is 00:52:38 long time. He's transferred from Auburn. He went to, he went to Liberty and he's developed and all that. He's an older prospect than what Josh Allen was coming out of Wyoming. So I do think for Kenny Pickettett he's a sell for me i also think the hand size will be an issue kenny two gloves will be his entire career and if he does show up even with so you know the number out there is eight and a quarter inch hands which would be the smallest we've ever seen in the nfl yeah zero percentile smallest we've ever seen even if he stretches these puppies out to eight and a half eight and three quarters and a nine it's still going to be very very small and the historical
Starting point is 00:53:11 success for quarterbacks with that kind of hand size is so concerning that it'd be difficult to really do i mean difficult for me to buy into him as his first round projection especially when they're just other guys simply with tools that i like more. There are Malik Willis, Howell, Corral. I don't think maybe haven't displayed as good of a season as we saw from Kenny Pickett this past year, but I think they have better tools to buy into to build around
Starting point is 00:53:34 than what Pickett has. All right, a tandem I really like in this mock draft as we get towards the end here. You had Malik Willis going round one to the Saints. So he is a top 20 pick, not as early though as some people are expecting. then in round two you have them taking sky more
Starting point is 00:53:49 who i know you and renner have have been on as early as anyone i think that's a name that you're starting to see more in draft circles we're officially out of the you know the big six where it's like london burks wilson alave uhon, you know, even like David Bell has been circulating. But Sky Moore is definitely someone that's getting more popular. That tandem for their future with Malik Willis and Sky Moore. And I think 50 is going to be right around his range when all is said and done.
Starting point is 00:54:17 I know probably for a while, people have been looking outside the top 75. I think that's going to be a pipe dream, especially when we get after combine workouts, just people catching up on tape, especially matching tape. So Sky Moore, you guys are obviously really high on him.
Starting point is 00:54:30 Number 30 on the big board. How do you see that Saints future projecting forward with those two? Yeah. I mean, for Mike, he sees them as, you know, borderline first round top of day two type of player.
Starting point is 00:54:40 I think his size will push him further than that. I think people will be concerned with how big he is. I think he's going to come in at like 5'11", 190, 195. After Elijah Moore last year. Exactly. I think people will sour on him as this back end of the first, top of the second round type of player. But if he gets to 50, the New Orleans Saints should be really excited
Starting point is 00:54:59 at the player he's getting. He's from Pittsburgh, and his favorite player in the NFL is Deontay Johnson. I think that's a very good comparison for the type of shiftiness he has in his in his in his routes right like he is a very you know i was talking to chris olave recently the ohio statewide receiver and he says you look at these guys in the nfl that have movement in their routes that's the type of player i want to be you want movement in your routes at the next level sky more has movement in his route so does deontay johnson There are other receivers that do create separation at the next level that do have success that are a little bit stiffer
Starting point is 00:55:29 in how they create separation or how they are at the release point. But Sky Moore, man, he is a jitterbug at the line of scrimmage and really good after the catch too. The size will be concerning. The size, I think, does push him into the 40 to 60 range. But the New Orleans Saints who need to add weapons on offense starting at the quarterback position then potentially at receiver as well i think sky more is the pick all right
Starting point is 00:55:50 before we get out of here one pick that i'm down on just to balance this out we've shown a lot of love to a lot of picks so one pick that i was down on at the end of round two is christian harris to the raiders now i do think the raiders need to get a little better in the middle of their defense and that goes from all the way up front and right back to linebacker as well Christian Harris to me man I came into this season thinking man he's probably going to be a top 40 pick I think it's it's going to be smooth sailing playing behind the Alabama defensive line this is a scheme that we've seen linebackers flourish in and some even get to the NFL and struggle I just don't know what to do with him I came away this year a little underwhelmed on tape i guess how he tests he can get right back into that top 60 pick but christian harris the raiders
Starting point is 00:56:29 at 54 what was your thought process with that one i gotta be honest i also don't really love that pick i struggle i struggle with mocking off-ball linebackers honestly consistently in drafts because it's it's a difficult position when you know you have george pickens go right after and i know a lot of people really like George Pickens, and the Raiders desperately need more weapons beyond Darren Waller and Hunter Renfro. But I saw it as Christian Harris, the prospect, and what he could be being enough to take him right outside the top 50. Now, I can be convinced otherwise.
Starting point is 00:56:59 I have Chad Muma going a bit later, who I also like coming out of Wyoming. But again, the off-ball linebacker position, the low positional value you are better off taking a justin ross or a cameron thomas out of san diego state nick benito out of oklahoma like those are going to be the other players in that range at higher positions of value but i'm interested to see the combine for harris i think that could be where he separates himself a bit or at least kind of solidifies himself as this day two player but i agree with you like the production was not as good as what people thought i mean there were people who were mocking him inside the first round you know uh early in this in this pre-draft process so christian harris i agree with you i'm not surprised
Starting point is 00:57:30 you hate to pick i think it i think it's one i don't love as well yeah he's a tough sell for me um in the top 60 of this draft all right so we went through a lot of it but if you please go check out all the two round monster mock draft from austin russell Wilson, Derek Carr, Aaron Rodgers, all on the move. And that really shakes up a lot of the picks and really helps with the teams that do not have a first-round pick to get involved in the second round. So what else you got coming up, dude? I know you've been busy. I'm excited to see this Aiden Hutchinson series as well because, I mean,
Starting point is 00:57:58 the dude is just an animal and really fun to listen to. I've heard him on a couple of different pods, a really interesting guy. Yeah, so obviously the two-round mock draft, if you are on pff.com on Monday, that should be out. That's obviously one of the bigger things I've been working on play. Also the tailgate podcast, make sure you check out Mike and I having a ton of fun, all of this pre-draft process and the Hutchinson podcast,
Starting point is 00:58:15 Hutch a four part podcast series where I'm going to sit down with this guy for two days, right? We got plans to sit down at Ann Arbor Cincinnati for two days and really talk through his story. He's a guy that's wildly supported by his family his mom is a photographer his dad's a doctor his sister is in the same boat like he has got such a supportive family and talking to quitty pay david ajabo don brown of late and hearing just like the type of player this guy is on the practice field off the field and on the field it's just going to be a really exciting piece and it's i think it's
Starting point is 00:58:45 going to be content that we just haven't seen on projected number one overall picks right we just have not seen before the draft these guys open up you know you you look at some of the quarterbacks that have gone in the top five picks over the last few years they're extensively essentially not doing a lot of media before the draft not necessarily willing to open up their entire life to to the media and to evaluators and i think aiden hutchins because of that comfortability i think it's going to be a piece of content that surprises a lot of people and it's what i'm really excited about yeah it feels like he's the type of guy it's like i have nothing to hide this is who i am everybody's going to really
Starting point is 00:59:16 like me everyone's going to want to draft me at the top two of this draft so i can't wait to listen man and as always uh you guys have had an incredible amount of interviews on the tailgate not just you and renner's draft analysis but amount of guys that are going to be top 10, top 20, top 30 picks in this draft that you've gotten to talk to. So if you're not on that feed, which I'm sure most of you are as PFF listeners, go check that as well. He is Austin Gale from PFF. Really appreciate you joining me to go through this entire mock draft, man. I'm Connor Rogers, and we will catch you for another episode of NFL Stock Exchange tomorrow. Bye.

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