NFL Stock Exchange: An NFL Draft Podcast - 156. 6 Potential 1st Round Trade for the 2023 Draft

Episode Date: March 9, 2023

Hosts Trevor Sikkema and Connor Rogers each give you three potential trade for the first round of the 2023 NFL Draft with prospect targets and compensation included.

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It's awesome. Sign up now at youtube.com slash BS, device and content restrictions apply. Local and national games on YouTube TV NFL Sunday ticket for out of market games excludes digital only games. Welcome to the NFL Stock Exchange podcast. In this episode, we've got six potential first round trades for the 2023 NFL draft. We're going to tell you who the initiators are in the trade, whether they're moving up or down some target players that they might be moving for, and then some compensation as well, what each side of the deal is getting.

I'm Trevor Sycamore. With me as always is Connor Rogers. Let's ring the bell. Welcome to the opening bell of the NFL Stock Exchange Podcast. I'm Trevor Sikama. That is Connor Rogers. Joining you for the second time this week, following a monster of a mock draft episode, which just wanted to shout out everybody who watched the mock, who commented on the mock draft episode on YouTube.

Man, the conversations were phenomenal. You guys didn't let us down because you never do. It was an awesome exercise that we had a lot of fun doing. It was a two round mock draft. So if you guys missed that one, go back and listen to it, go to the YouTube channel, comment on it, get in on the conversation because there's a lot of good talk about the different first round halls, the second round halls, total packages the team's got. Connor was a lot of fun. And in that spirit, I think that's how we have the topic of today today which are six potential first round trades

that we would like to see exactly you cooked up three i cooked up three um i think they're very realistic we are gonna we're gonna talk at the top about the outrage over the return the bears got in our mock draft and i bet you guys stopped responding on twitter because i just like was like we'll just talk about in the pot i can only answer so many times the same way. Right. I didn't know people would care about that part that much. For us, it was laying out all of the scenarios and all of the picks for two rounds. Not that the Bears got exactly the fair return,

but I respect everybody's drive and emotion and passion towards it so nothing but respect look the you know that's what i love about our listeners is this show is we try to be at least 100 authentic like we don't we don't do stuff on this and i'm i'm truly not like trying to subtweet or call anybody out when i say this but like we don't do things on this show to say let's do this it'll get a rise out of people or like let's do this we'll talk about it well we what which to be fair for those we don't even do the thing the draft of the plan before it you and i are recording and we're just doing it so if we spent an extra 20 minutes on Bears compensation, which it might have taken,

it would have been a two and a half, three hour show. So we're not doing any of that. Ryan Poles is going to have to think up Bears compensation for two months. So anyway, no, we're obviously having a good time with it. But like I just wanted to say, we don't come up with this stuff to try to piss people off or anything. That was kind of an in the moment thing. Obviously, we were doing the mock draft and we were like all right

yeah this is what we think of this trade and that really like just reading a lot of you guys's comments and honestly how passionate you were about that detail which we love kind of brought us into the topic of today what we're going to talk about and kind of you mentioned it at the top we'll obviously address the uh the chic Bears trade. We'll kind of revisit the compensation and the package that we talked about in the mock draft episode, but then also maybe amend that. And then we'll have each three separate trades that we're going to talk about where we're talking about teams, why one team would want to moving up, who are they targeting in the draft? And then maybe some compensation that the teams might target when they're moving back. So I guess we'll just kick it off with the Bears trade.

So at the top of the mock draft last episode, we had the Bears, we had a little fun. We had the Bears trading back, not once, but twice. Because I don't think that we've really worked through that scenario before. We had them moving from number one to number two. So trading with the Houston Texans. So Houston moves up to go get number one. They go get Bryce Young or whoever their top quarterback is going to be.

And in doing so, we had the Bears picking up the Texans' early second round pick, which is, I don't think it's, it's not the first one. Is it, or is it the first one? It's the very first, very first selection of the, of the second round, which, you know, some people would say that's right there with a first round pick that difference. If you look at the draft value chart, which I know it's not. It's the second, it's the second pick.

The Steelers have the first pick of the second round that would belong to the bears because that wouldn't belong to the bears, which is funny that it all goes through. But still, pick 33. Yeah, it's right there. Yeah, it's right there. I don't know if my voice cracked like that or if I was just excited about it. I don't think it was excitement. That's for the listeners to decide.

So we had them. We had Houston giving up that top of the second round pick. And if you look at the NFL draft chart, which isn't, like I said, it's not an exact science, but it's close. It's where I think conversations at least start. That is fair compensation to move from number two to number one, that value that you would get for that early second round pick. So Chicago picks up the early second round pick this year.

And then we had them trading back to nine and the Panthers only giving up a first round pick this year. So number nine overall, giving up a first round pick this year. So number nine overall, and then a first round pick next year. And then did you throw a pick swap in there? Didn't you throw like a fourth round pick in there or something like that? I did. I threw like a sweetener in there. Yeah. So I mean, it just, it was not received well. I'm not even going down that road again, but essentially, but essentially we went number nine and next year's first round pick for number two overall. And the reason why we came to that value is the number one quarterback was no longer on the board.

So I think the trade compensation is going to look a little bit different. But Connor, what do you think? I agree with the people and we probably should have given them a little bit more. What do you think about this? Yeah. I mean, absolutely. I mean,

sure. There was definitely more to add on. Yeah. The thing I can't emphasize enough is like timelines, right? I think I wonder, I don't think, I wonder if the NFL combine tightens this quarterback group.

And if it tightened the quarterback group where just throwing things out here, a team has Stroud as the number one guy, a team has Levis as the number one guy, a team has Bryce off the board because of size thresholds, or a team looks at Bryce and thinks he's far and away the best one. I think the combine has led to a lot of different opinions from teams on these quarterbacks. And I wonder, does that help or does that hurt Chicago? And Chicago is going to do really, really well.

Don't get me wrong here. But what I'm trying to say is, as greatryce young is and as great as i think he is i don't know if the demand gets to this what the rumors are three first rounders counting the swap right like polls would do that today i think yeah uh i agree i agree a team in the top nine so right so say carolina is like the falling point if you're carolina could today could you call and get to number one for your next two first rounders that's a pretty big price to pay for a rookie quarterback but trevor i don't know like i just wonder where does this market go and how do teams play here's one is there a team out there that loves three quarterbacks in this class?

Because remember the Jets did this in the Darnold year? The Jets went from six to three in March. I remember it was right around St. Patty's Day, around that timeline. Everyone was like, how could they do this? They don't know how the first two picks are going to go. And the Jets, it didn't work out because Darnold didn't work out. But the Jets' thought process was, we like three quarterbacks where we will get one. Does a team do that to Arizona?

Right. You know what I mean? And I'm not saying it's likely, but I'm saying that's why it's so hard to land on exact compensation that is so extremely high. No, that's a great point and a great conversation starter, I think, because I'd love to hear what people think about this as well. Because if at the combine, truly now we don't know. Right. It's hard to it's hard to parse whether the media is just catching up to what NFL teams already thought or if teams were genuinely really impressed with specifically anthony richardson and will levis maybe not the on the field stuff but like the interviews right getting to actually

sit down and know these guys does that change teams thought process where they go man loved our conversation with this dude we gotta have him in for an official top 30 visit but i could see us building this like i love the work ethic love where this kid's going love the head on his shoulders we like this guy even more so than we did coming into the comment because that part's real right the tape evaluation that everybody talks about doesn't change during the combine you're right doesn't change during the combine but that getting to know these prospects part of it that's very for real so I'm with you did Anthony Richardson and Will Levis increase their stocks enough to where a lot of these different teams we've talked about

them plenty whether it's the Houston Texans the Indianapolis Colts the Atlanta Falcons the Las Vegas Raiders the Carolina Panthers the Tennessee Titans Titans, whoever it is. Did these guys impress enough to where, like you just said, you pull a New York Jets or even like what the 49ers did with Trey Lance, right? Where you just go all the way up to number three because you go, we don't care. We're good. Because if the we don't care part prevails, I think that hurts Chicago, personally.

It's devastating. Devastating is rich. I wouldn't say it's devastating. Don't do well. It might be devastating to what they would do at number one overall. You might not get into a situation where teams are desperate enough especially like you mentioned if arizona is calling these teams and they go we're open for business right then you really gonna pay three first round picks to go up to number one if maybe like even just like two ones

is all it's gonna take for you to get up to number three you might be happy you might be happy with that i mean can i i I, I kind of, you kind of just segued perfectly to my first trade. Okay. Are we ready to rumble? Yeah, let's do it. Let's do it. Okay.

So my first trade, and I have two that are outside the quarterback sphere. So I promise these will get more exciting to you. If you're a team that's not chasing a quarterback, I'm sure some of you guys are like, please give us something else. The first one though, is the Panthers, right? Okay.

The Panthers, who I think are very likely to trade up. The Panthers go from nine to three. Okay. I thought, Trevor, let's explain the chart. The chart is not, you know, you don't live or die by the chart, but the chart's a good baseline sometimes. Sure.

So the chart, thanks to Draft Tech's website, they have the chart but the chart's a good baseline sometimes sure so the chart uh thanks to draft tech's website they have the chart for this year posted and you could search through and so Carolina's pick at nine is 1350 points Arizona's pick at three is 2200. why the chart you don't live or die by it is the demand the demand can completely you're not exchanging cash for cash. You might exchange a good that is much more valuable this year in this economy than a different year. That's why it's hard to actually make it chart. In this economy. So, and in this economy, there are really good quarterbacks that people really want. So I was thinking Carolina here is swapping with Arizona,

and I still think they're paying at least the following year's first round pick. I would agree with that. Yeah. What do they have to add on top of that for this trade to not only be fair, but to do this trade before Chicago deals number one, right? Like say they just, they will not work with you. They just, they've hit a stalemate, like a Lamar Jackson Raven stalemate. They're like, we're not paying the three ones,

the swap and the two ones. Like we're not doing that. Arizona's like, hey, we want to get this deal done now because we want to figure out our draft range. Right. We'll do it for just next year's one. And how about, let's pull up Carolina's picks just for this year. Carolina's got an extra two this year.

There you go. Which. Pick 61 and not pick 39. Right. So the later second round pick. Exactly. So pick 61, not 39. carolina gets to move up they get to keep that top 40 pick to get this rookie quarterback another asset but they lose pick 61 and they

lose the following years first i think that's i think that's not far off i really do i think we're in the good like ballpark area of that for Arizona. For Arizona, not Chicago. Going to nine. My only other thing that I'll throw into the, well, this is probably not the only thing, but something that I'll throw into the conversation is I agree with you that the quarterback market is strong,

which certainly helps Arizona's case. If Carolina wants to go up and they're like, we don't really care which one we get. We just want to get one of the good ones let's move up to three but you're moving up to three you're not moving up to one so it helps Carolina's case because Carolina can come back and say look we're already expecting two quarterbacks to be off the board before we even pay so we're not going to pay you that much money for it because it's going to be QB three no matter who it is Carolina's mind they're okay with that but they can use that as leverage against Arizona. Arizona might then be able to counter with Carolina to say, well, hold on here. It's not really a strong draft class this year. You know,

like it's, it's not like it was, what was it in, in 2020, where it was just like, Oh man, Michael Parsons, Jamar Chase, you can get to the number nine overall pick and you're getting an all star. And that might not be the case this year. So Jets got Zach Wilson out of that, by the way. So I didn't say it. I was, I was believing at the time. So I was thinking on myself.

I was going to say it. So I think that nine this year, one next year. I wonder if they would go to next year's pick. Like, I wonder if they would go to next year's pick. Like, I wonder if they would say, give us a one next year and a two next year, as opposed to this year, just because maybe they wouldn't like the class as much. But I think the value...

And let's be real. Like, Arizona's maybe in the tank this year. Like, are they going to push Kyler to rush back? You shouldn't. First year coach, first year GM. My hot take that I can't say on the podcast, that I'm about to say on the podcast, is I don't know how much longer Kyler Murray's in Arizona.

I wouldn't be shocked if this is the last year. I don't know if this is going to be the last year, because he's coming off of injury. But like, if he... Does that enhance your point? Right, I don't, I just don't know if this is going to be the last year because he's coming off of injury but like does that enhance your point right right i i i don't i just don't know right kyler was the big player that they traded up for during the kingsbury era because kyler murray was supposed to be perfect for cliff kingsbury right this was supposed to be the perfect head coach quarterback combination and it wasn't now like there is still a case i'm not i'm not killing kyler there's still a case where kyler could work out obviously he's got the massive contract and everything but do you get to a point if you're arizona it's a new head coach it's a new general

manager do you get to the point where you go okay we're paying kyler a crap ton of money just to have a bad team around it because if you admit that you're not going to be in a winning window for almost the entirety of that kyler contract, you're probably going to look to move on from him, especially while he's got a lot of value. So it's not saying it's a for sure thing, but I do look at Arizona's current situation and I think they should probably start stockpiling some picks. They should start in the future. So that's kind of where I'm at. I like the Carolina ID, obviously, for them to get to from nine to three.

You don't have to pay the tax that it might be to get up to number one if you're okay with these other quarterbacks. But I think it's probably, certainly your one this year, at least a one next year, and maybe like a second next year as well. That's probably what I would think might get it done.

And here's something to throw on. Maybe word gets out. Chicago doesn't want to move out of the top four. So Carolina uses Arizona as a stepping stone. And then you work with Chicago and say, okay, we knew you wouldn't come to nine. And I would agree with that. I know everybody's like, shit, and we did it.

We stockpiled as many picks as we could for Chicago in our mock draft to show one scenario, we knew you wouldn't come to nine and I would agree with that. If she got, I know everybody's like, and we did it. We were, we stockpiled as many picks as we could for Chicago and our mock draft to show one scenario, a scenario I'm a bigger fan of your Chicago. You need a star on defense. Like your defense is bad. You need an identity. If I'm Chicago, I would try to see what I can do in the top four first. And then once again, you get to pick the best defensive, whoever you think is the best

defensive player of the draft and sure then Carolina's not paying the premium because they're going from three to one but they already spent assets to go to three so it's a stepping stone if they feel like they need to get to one man that Carolina staff those guys know quarterbacks man Frank Reich Josh McCown like they're gonna have it right that's all I know whatever that board says on those quarterbacks there I think they they're going to get it right. So I have, I have another one for Arizona as well, but I, I like the idea of this. I don't know how plausible it is. I would love to hear, I would love to hear from you. I would love to hear from the people that are, that are listening because I like this idea. I think this is a massive swing of the bat kind of idea,

but I wonder how plausible it really is. We just talked about the compensation for Arizona to move back with Carolina at number nine, and it would cost number nine, a first round pick next year, and probably a second round pick next year. I don't know if that's exactly where the landing spot would be, but that's kind of what we're having here in this conversation. You're getting at least a day two pick next year from him as well as a first round pick. Connor, what about the Houston Texans?

And I'm not talking about the Houston Texans at number two overall. I'm talking about the Houston Texans at number 12 overall. Now going from three to 12 for a team that needs really good football players might be a massive ask. That might be a deal breaker for Arizona, like getting out of the top five might be a deal breaker for the Chicago Bears. But if it's not, Houston also has an extra first round pick next year.

Houston could be in a situation where if they can pull this off, if they can get the number two overall pick and the number three overall pick, you can sit there and you can jumpstart off if they can get the number two overall pick and the number three overall pick incredible you can sit there and you can you can jump start your franchise with D'Amico Ryans by getting yourself CJ Stroud or Bryce Young and Will Anderson or Jalen Carter you are getting those two massive players right there so it would obviously take number 12 it would you're probably not trading

up to number one in this scenario so So it would probably take number 12. It would probably take number 33. It would probably take a first round pick next year. And then if the Carolina price is what we're going off of here, likely an extra second or third round pick next year as well, which means that Houston would still have a first round pick next year because of the Browns trade. So it's not like they'd be totally high and dry and they could probably decide which one that you would rather want to trade, the Cleveland one or the Houston

one. Let's face it, you'd rather trade the Cleveland one because Cleveland way underperformed this year and they were still seven and ten right they were still picking outside of the top ten you know that you're going to be on a little bit of a rebuild here next year's probably not going to be the massive slingshot that you hope so you keep your you keep your first round pick I don't know you try to you try to finagle your way into to giving up a third round pick next year not a second round pick but who knows depending on the prices that said so that win my head could get houston at number two overall number three overall they come away with let's just say cj stroud and will

anderson how do you feel about it i feel really good about that because then you're pairing either bryce or cj with i think will anderson should be the choice in that scenario but you know dealers do your jaylen carter homework do your tyree wilson evals um and you have star power in houston and houston so desperately lacks star power and you look at will anderson's toolbox under demico ryan's system i mean that's something to be really excited about honestly and not to mention the fact that they need a franchise quarterback and then like you said trevor the fact that this doesn't empty their war chest going forward, they're just maximizing their ammo, right?

Also still staying, you know, competent and sound and not giving away everything. So I like it. And here's why I like it even more. Twelve is where the dip is in this draft class. I think now four quarterbacks going in the top 10 might've saved it, but you look at it. We'll say four quarterbacks in the top 10, Will Anderson,

Tyree Wilson, Christian Gonzalez, Jalen Carter. I think Paris Johnson's going earlier than people think. And I'll get there in a second. I think Paris Johnson's probably go. I think Paris Johnson's going top 13 at the latest. Exactly.

He's really good. I like Skowronski a lot. I mean, Houston don't get a good player at 12. I just worry a little bit. I would rather be aggressive, like you said. So, yeah. Yeah. So, that's kind of the way that I think about it.

Again, I don't know what the final price is going to be. But it allows Arizona to get another first round pick next year. Um, certainly they're going to fight for getting the first and second rounder that, and look, even if the Titans, even if the Texans have to give up a first and second rounder next year, they also have an additional fourth round pick from the Deshaun Watson trade. So they would still have a first rounder, a third rounder and two fourth round pick from the Deshaun Watson trade. So they would still have a first rounder, a third rounder and two fourth rounders. So again, you know, yeah, you're biting the bullet a little bit, but you're biting the bullet going up from 12 to three to get CJ

Stroud and Will Anderson. And then you still have a first round pick next year. All right, cool. You don't have a second round pick, but you got that extra first round pick in order to do things like this, to be aggressive, to go get really good football players. I don't know how plausible it is, but the more I think about it, the more I like the end result of what might be for Houston if they can make a deal with Arizona there. Absolutely. So I brought up Paris Johnson. The trade idea I have that involves him is the Steelers going up from 17 to Philadelphia at 10. Okay. Philadelphia loves the stockpile picks. They're creative.

They like to play the board. Yeah. I have felt that outside of Devin Witherspoon, there's not really a player at 10 for Philly that I think they can't replicate or get in the top 20 you know what I mean like if you can get out of that pick and then just take Bijan or or a corner do it now Witherspoon's different if they sat at 10 and they had a chance to get Witherspoon that's a no-brainer that's not a guarantee he could go in front of them we'll see on that so the Steelers go up to 10. What are they giving up? So the Steelers have the two twos here, which is why you can get away with this trade.

They have pick 32. That's too rich. You're not giving up pick 32 because you're essentially giving up another first rounder to flip up seven spots in the middle of the draft. I don't like that. Okay. But pick 49 is a damn good pick. And the value does align. If you want to go by the value, Philly's pick is worth 1300. The Steelers pick is worth nine 50. The value of pick 49 is worth four 10. So I think that you give up pick 49 with 17, you go up to 10. You jump the Tennessee Titans, the New York Jets, and the New England Patriots who all need tackle. And you take Paris Johnson.

Because you're not getting one at 17. You're not. And you need one. You chose this path with Kenny Pickett. I didn't. You did. And now you need to do right by Kenny Pickett. And he was my QB1 last year, but it was like, I got to pick someone.

So it's just, that's, Trevor, I think that they are in 17's no man's land. I hate it. I hate it. Get, be aggressive. You got the MO to do it. Yeah, 17, when we go through mock draft scenarios and it's the same thing with the Commanders at 16, right?

These are two teams that have very similar needs in offensive tackle and corner. Yes. Both are the primary needs for both these teams. And it's like you are on the tail end, on the outside looking in of what would be tier one of the corners and the offensive tackles. And it's like a little early although i i would say corner

is more diverse right corner like i'm cool you know if you get yourself like banks a lot if you get dionte banks right like if you get those guys like you should be cool with that so i think that corner is still in play for him but offensive tackle i have a very hard time believing this karansky paris johnson or broderickick Jones is going to make it to 16 or 17. Maybe Skowronski, but at that point, is he a tackle for you? Because if he's not, then yeah, you're going to Darnell Wright. You drafted to Juan Jones at 17. That's kind of where we're at. Now, it might not be the worst thing in the world. Those guys could still work out for you. I think those guys are really talented right tackles, but is that something you're going to do?

So I love the idea of obviously anytime you have a premium position need, making sure you go and fill it with a premium type player. So for the Eagles, it is interesting with a trade down. You know, some people will tell you that they lucked out getting a top 10 pick anyway. So why would they move back from that number 10 overall spot? Sure, I hear you and like connor said at the very beginning if there's a prospect they love that fits you take them at 10

but if there's not philly only has six picks this year they have two first round picks they have a second round pick and they have a third round pick before not picking again until the seventh round they've got two seven round picks yeah so fourth round pick fifth round pick sixth round pick before not picking again until the seventh round. They've got two seventh round picks. Yeah. So fourth round pick, fifth round pick, sixth round pick. So if they move from 10 to 17 and they still have two first round picks, you get them a,

you said a second rounder, right? Mid second rounder. Yeah. So they would have 49 and 62 in the second round. Right. So then you'd have two first round picks, two second round picks and a third round pick before dropping all the way to the second round. Right. So then you'd have two first round picks, two second round picks,

and a third round pick before dropping all the way to the seventh round. You don't give a damn about that gap at that point. If you have five players that you are picking within the top 100. That's right. Top 100. Who cares? You're good. That's it.

That's your draft class. Take a flyer on two seventh round picks. It doesn't matter. So Philly would be cool with it in that regard if there is a prospect that they uh that they don't love at number 10 so i agree that's a good one sweet where are you going so i'll stick along the offensive line thoughts uh there's another team that as of combine week as of this week needs a starting offensive tackle and that is my tamp Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

The Bucs released long time left tackle Donovan Smith. There's been some talk about Tristan Wirfs potentially playing over on the left side of the line of scrimmage, moving from his stapled right tackle position, but that's kind of to be seen. And I think it just depends on what the potential best five could be for the Buccaneers. So they released Donovan Smith. They save a lot of cap in doing so. And the move was to save money.

The move was to save cap. So I don't think they're going to go out and have the money to really sign a quality offensive tackle. Instead, I think they're going to look towards the draft. And once again, if you have a premium position of need, then you should go try to fill it with a premium type player. So Jason Light, the Bucs general manager, he came up through the scouting department. He was part of the New England Patriots franchise, the Arizona Cardinals franchise before he was the

general manager with the Buccaneers. And he loves the draft. Jason loves the draft. And that's why the Bucs don't really trade a lot. They don't really trade those top assets because he likes picking. Like, he likes doing the drafting. This is fun for him. This is probably the best part of his job, honestly, outside of, you know, having a boat parade, winning a Super Bowl. But they don't often trade top picks. But in this scenario, I've got them going from 19 to 11 with the tennessee titans to go get an offensive tackle now you might be saying to me trev titans just released taylor

lewan they need an offensive tackle if broderick jones or paris johnson jr is still on the board at 11 titans are going to pick them. They aren't going to trade back. Totally could see that happening. I hear you, and I do agree with you. But if the Titans are really hammering the rebuild button, you might need more picks. You might want more picks. I don't know. They might opt to have more darts at the dart board, if you will.

So moving from 11 to 19, not too far down. You could probably still get an offensive tackle prospect, and you could get Tampa's second round pick as well. So Tampa's first round pick this year, their second round pick this year, and that moves them from 19 to 11. I think the numbers check out. I think Tampa's paying a little bit more for that. Actually, let me check the numbers just to double check. Tennessee's at $1,250 on the value chart. Tampa's at $875. And then their second round pick is worth $400. So if you combine $875 and $400, that's $1,275. That's right around where the Titans' number 11 overall pick is with the value of $1,250. So that's right in that ballpark. Again, it's not an exact science, but that gets you right there. If the Titans want to

get more, if the Titans want to get more picks because they have only pull it up right now, they have a first round pick a second round pick a third round pick and then a fifth, sixth and seventh. So they don't have a lot of picks either, especially for a team that is looking to rebuild that roster. So you get yourself a first round pick and an extra second round pick too. I think that might be able to really help them. So it allows the Bucks to go up, get an offensive tackle that they really want, and it allows the Titans to stockpile some picks. So that's kind of one that I saw as a maybe could be a possibility scenario for both those teams. Yeah, I think you're all over it. I really do.

And when you look at, like you said, the situation both teams are in, that's half the battle is like, what does Tennessee want to be, right? Are they going to run this back with Tannehill and try to get him a left tackle in that spot? Are the Bucs... Then they wouldn't move, right?

Then they wouldn't move. That's far from a given. Like they might... we know how much you said how much jason light runs loves the draft we know how much ran carthon loves the draft this guy grew up making mock drafts like that's a scenario too where it's his first draft he's like i might want to load up the war chest of picks and throw my darts the way i can and see what i come up with and show people that i'm ready for this thing. So I like the matchmaking there. And it kind of segues perfectly with my last one, because this is the total other way for the bucks. I have the bucks trading out of

19. If they feel like they can't get up, they feel like they're in no man's land, which we call 16 and 17 no man's land. That makes 19 no man's land as well for the bucks that's true the bucks go you know what we're going to rebuild right now or we're going to retool we want more picks as well let me check how many picks they have right now once again i didn't think they had like a bunch of extra i think they don't they have their standards pick in rounds one through three they have no fourth rounder they have their pick in the fifth round and an extra fifth. Bunch of day three picks. Yeah, they're picking a lot on day three.

They have two round five picks, two round six picks, and one round seven pick, but no fourth rounder. So anyway, my thinking here is, did you know Kansas City has 12 picks in this draft? 12? 12. here is did you know kansas city has 12 picks in this draft 12 12 now let me put the caveat that five of them are in the seventh round but still kansas city is not taking home a 12-man draft class no contender does this okay most teams don't do this no you don't have the cap space to sign 12 it's it's not a thing it don't make us do the wolf of wall street thing again so besides john idzik doing the idzik 12

and it was one of the worst draft classes i've seen in a long time so anyway not to make this the jet spot i have the chiefs coming up from 31 right you look at the chiefs they're always they did this they went up for m for McDuffie last year. They're a team that could target a really good player. Now, the chart tells you it would only take pick 63. I'm going to give more than that because I think this is a big climb for Kansas City. I think they're willing to be aggressive in this spot to move up. The Bucs go from 19 to 31, but they get pick 63, pick 122 in the fourth round.

Keep in mind the Bucs don't have a fourth rounder. Right. And then one of those seventh rounders that are all valued pretty closely. And the Chiefs are doing this to come up and get Jackson Smith and Jigba. They don't pay Juju. The wide receiver market is not good, and that means average players are going to get paid like really good players. And nothing against Juju.

I think it's a great fit there, and if they brought him back, great. But if they don't, how about your tailor-made replacement in Jackson Smith and Jigba? So I think this is his range. I think if the Bucs can't be be aggressive they find a way to just get more ammo and then if you have if you're the bucks right you have pick 63 maybe you use that with 50 and come back up and you'd rather pick 31 you'd rather pick in the top 40 twice right then pick it not then pick it 19 and then pick outside the top 50. You know what I'm saying? Yeah. Because I look at this draft, and I think 20 through 45 is like,

eh, it's all kind of the same grades, to be honest with you. Right. So that's my motivation for the Bucs, and my motivation for the Chiefs is they are a Super Bowl contender. Andy Reid is still coaching. Mahomes is the MVP. Kelsey is still great, not getting any younger. Keep going for it.

Get the most tailor-made, ready NFL wide receiver in the draft in Jackson Smith and Jigba. Yeah, I'm all for kicking the door wide open when, well, I should say kicking the window frame wide open when you have a winning window, right? When you're clearly defending Super Bowl champs. I know Orlando Brown might be out, but, like, yeah, you have a lot of the staple of the team that's still there. So I'm all for that with the champs. If I know Orlando Brown might be out, but like, yeah, you have a lot of the staple of

the team that's still there. So I'm all for that with the Chiefs. The Bucs would then have to, I agree with you, if the Bucs wanted to do that deal, which I don't think is impossible. Certainly, we talked about how no man's land, the back of the teens could be in the first round. If they wanted to move back, I think they'd certainly have to get creative because then, shoot, Tampa would have something like 10 picks and you know you're not using all those so maybe

you do the the bill belichick strategy when you get into day three and you just you just start trading them all towards next year and just premium it a little bit more every time so maybe that's something that they end up doing but certainly the thought process of the chiefs moving up for a wide receiver it makes a ton of sense and. And to quote my co-host, Connor Rogers, that's a great transition into where I'm going here with my last pick. It's along the same lines. It's the Buffalo Bills. I've got the Buffalo Bills moving from 27 up to number 20

with the Seattle Seahawks to go get either Jackson Smith and Jigba or I would even say this. I did an article this week for PFF and I had to put the best realistic fits for each player on PFF's top, the top 32 players on PFF's big board. There, that's what I was trying to say. I got to Jordan Addison and I was like, ah, where would he go? You know, the Giants, the Chargers. And I was like, ah, where would he go? I, you know, the giants, the chargers. And I was like, wait, best fit the bills, the bills.

You think about it? Like I loved, I love Jordan Addison's tape. Jordan Addison's a great route runner. I think he's really understands the position. Well, super productive over the last two years, especially in that last year that he was a Pitt as the Bolitnikoff winner, over 1,600 yards. I mean, like, he was an absolute monster. I think the dude really understands how to play the position.

Yeah. Spacing. But let's face it. The long speed and the measurables, they're all well below 50%, I think, of NFL wide receivers. Maybe the 40-yard dash wasn't well below 50%, I think, of NFL wide receivers. Maybe the 40-yard dash wasn't well below 50%, but he was not the athlete that you needed him to be for you to say, yes, this guy, I have full faith

that he can win on the outside, even at his size and weight. I don't think a lot of people are going to see it that way. I think a lot of people are instead going to see Jordan Addison as a slot receiver, mainly a slot receiver who can also play on the outside because we know he's got some experience. Put him in Buffalo, right? That is an explosive route runner, one of the best route runners in this class that Josh Allen then gets to throw to.

Man, come on. A passing group with Stephon Diggs, Gabe Davis, Jordan Addison, and Dawson Knox? Great. I'm in. Cool. If Jordan Addison's your wide receiver three in Buffalo, you're scoring a lot of damn points next year. So I have Buffalo giving up number 27. And because the Seahawks already have two second round picks because of the Russell Wilson trade, I've got Seattle giving up next year's, or sorry, Buffalo giving up next year's second round pick as well. And then also probably a fourth round pick next year, just to sweeten the deal.

And the reason why you would do that for Buffalo isn't just because of the wide receivers that you would get there. It's who you're jumping, right? Now it's to be seen. We have free agencies going to play out. They might lose Jordan Poyer. They might lose Tremaine Edmonds. And so who knows exactly what their number one needs are going to be.

But if you look at wide receiver and you say, yes, they absolutely need a wide receiver three out of this draft and an impact one at that. You can move from 27 up to 20 and you are passing the Chargers at 22 the baltimore ravens at 23 the minnesota vikings at 24 the uh new york giants at 26 and the dallas cowboys at 27 actually i think i got that wrong because i think buffalo is technically picking yeah you counted the miami forfeited slot it happens to us every show i do i'm the guilty public enemy number one of doing that mistake all of those teams every single one of them could pick a wide receiver all of them will but they could so if you're buffalo and you still think that that's one of your primary needs go up and get one jump all of those teams man don't leave it to don't leave it to chance with

you sitting there at 27 28 depending on what number the list you you you read in where they're picking in the draft so that was my last one same vein kind of had them popping up for a wide receiver what do you think i like it a lot because you absolutely need to factor in why are you going there are you going there because you need to jump teams you think that's the players you know floor whatever it may be think that's the player's, you know, floor, whatever it may be. And that's it. You're always trying to find sweet spots in the draft and you're trying to find intel. It goes back to really this entire exercise.

I found a spot where the Steelers get above the tackle run. You found a spot where the Bills get above the wide receiver run. These are the little things that you have to factor in and teams factor in with the draft. I mean, let's not forget. I want to make sure I have this right. Didn't the bills. I know the bills and the chiefs moved up last year.

Wasn't it? What was their rumors? The bills were trying to go up for McDuffie and the chiefs got up and got them. And then they took higher Elam when they got up. It does sound familiar to me. I'm pretty, these drafts just fly by and all kind of mush together.

But I could have swore, because at the time, it's not saying it's a bad pick, but Elam, yeah, so McDuffie went 21, Kier Elam went 23. Both those teams moved up. At the time, it was like, oh, like Kier Elam at 23. And McDuffie was regarded as a really high end player. So this is what happens in the draft all the time. You're trying to find a way to snipe your opponents. And that's kind of what we did here today.

Any other potential trades that you were like, Ooh, I kind of like this, the idea of this team moving up. And you couldn't really find a trade partner. I mean, Ooh, that's a good one. look along those lines yeah i mean like cincinnati is a team who i think needs an offensive tackle but like i don't think cincinnati ever trades unless i'm unless i'm totally mistaken i don't think they do either i feel like since not on day one ever trades so i thought about them moving up you know getting into i'm a g. People call the phone to Cincinnati and it just rings. I know about Duke Tobin, folks.

Don't dunk on me. I'll pick it up. I think Duke Tobin feels about being the GM but never having the title. He's still the director of player personnel. I was going to say, that's his official title, right? Yeah. I'd be pissed i'd

be like just name me gm so yeah cincinnati is one that i thought about moving up um you know there were a couple of teams like i felt like right around where detroit was picking at number 18 would have been a perfect spot for a lot of those teams in the 20s to move up to but I every time I got there I was like Detroit wouldn't do this like Detroit yes Detroit Detroit wouldn't move back from 18 because they don't need to right pick 48 and pick 55 and pick six right so it's like why are we why are we getting cute? We need players. And Detroit, like, here's what we don't talk enough about with Detroit, right? Detroit is, as I've said on the pod, a very Christian Gonzalez,

Devin Witherspoon kind of team if one of the top guys don't fall to them. If Detroit zeroes in and goes, oh, all right, well, you know what? We actually really like Anthony Richardson, whatever you want to call it. They take him at six. Well, then Detroit at 18 becomes a pivotal pick for Deontay Banks or someone like that. Yes, then you can't move for sure. So that's the scenario. Or Detroit goes, oh my God, Will Anderson is here?

We didn't expect this. Then they can't move from 18. You actually kind of wonder, does Detroit fall into a different player at six than we've been expecting? They don't get that corner they desperately need. And then they go, we'll take 18 and 48 or 18 and 55 and move up to get back in on the corner run. You're right, though.

It was hard to find Detroit's way out of 18 because they don't need to. And there's a scenario where maybe they can't afford to. You know, and I'll tell you, I don't think Seattle is opposed to moving from five. I really don't. From the way that I felt like... Pete's being loud right now. Pete Carroll and John Schneider talked about at the podium. I don't think they're afraid to move down from five.

But who's really trading with them other than you know like if a quarterback ends up falling and you know anthony richardson's still on the board at five and carolina wants to jump vegas and atlanta like okay the same thing with atlanta if atlanta wants to jump las vegas or if they don't want to give carolina the opportunity or uh tennessee the opportunity whatever i could definitely see that but there's a couple of teams that are a little bit lower. For example, like Tennessee. I thought about Tennessee trading up to maybe go get a quarterback at number five,

and I'm like, is Seattle going to trade at a five? Will Anderson or Jalen Carter's probably going to be sitting there for them. No. Yeah, it's a weird place to leave. They're not going to trade at a five. Again, this is a gift. Number five overall is a gift for the Seattle Seahawks.

They made the playoffs last year. When are they going to pick in the top five again? They're really just going to move back just because? It'd have to be a crazy haul. And I thought the same thing about New England. I thought about the same thing about Washington, the Commanders. I looked at those teams moving up and I was like, ooh, number five, Seattle.

Seattle ain't moving down that far. And then, and then you get into Detroit's not moving from six doubt. They moved from six Vegas, Atlanta, Carolina, no way. They're moving back. The teams are not good enough for them to move back. So I don't know that that was just some, some, some stuff that I was working through. Here's something to think about, right? I've been talking to my therapist about we've been we've been flexing it out you know

imagine going to therapy and you're like you sit down like deep breath and you're like all right how's the week been and you're just like honestly it was a good week but i mean what the hell are the falcons going to do at eight and the therapist is just like right and then it's just like an hour of draft talk and then we put it you know we put it on that we put it on the show we put it on me using my therapist as my uh mining area of trades yeah mining content with my therapist uh let us know what you thought obviously this is this is a fun speculation episode we know that you guys got takes we know that you guys are fans of certain teams what do you want your teams to do trade back trade up get aggressive move back for different picks certain players that you're really targeting, you say, man,

I'd love for my team to go up and get this guy. This is kind of what I feel like it would take, some realistic spots. Trade episodes bring up such great conversations. So we would love to hear from all of you guys. Go subscribe to the YouTube channel If you're listening to this on a non-YouTube format, youtube.com backslash at NFL stock exchange. The comments are the best way to get in on the conversation. Appreciate everybody who has subscribed to the channel so far. We are almost over 5,000 subscribers just a few weeks into launching the channel.

Overwhelming support. Y'all are phenomenal. We love you to death. Thank you so much. Shout out to everybody who's listening to audio only as well. If you want to get in on the conversation there, if you don't have a YouTube account, you can hit us up on Twitter at TimBetray,

at ConnorJRogers. You can do the same thing on Instagram. The handles are exactly the same there. Connor, anything else before we let the people go and tell them to have a good weekend? No, I think we covered it. We joked or were kind of serious before the power. Like, ah, this will be a quick one.

Like, we'll do the trades. We'll try to. It's never quick. We found a way. We always find a way. We deliver an hour plus, sometimes two now. We fill in our promises. When you and I start talking football, we just can't stop.

It just goes. Thank God we're not live on tv with commercial breaks you didn't even do yeah i didn't even hear the ads today you might have produced your producer just screaming break yeah go to break you play the music behind your ear like when they got to get people off the oscars yeah yeah yeah no we would be doomed we thank god we'll never win an award they'd never get us off the stage whoa Whoa, whoa, whoa. Don't say never. Could happen. Could happen one day. It could.

Appreciate everybody listening. I'm Trevor Sikama. That's Connor Rogers. Thank you for listening to the NFL Stock Exchange Podcast. We'll see you next time. Thank you.