NFL Stock Exchange: An NFL Draft Podcast - 169. Favorite Draft Theories For What Will Happen In The 2023 NFL Draft

Episode Date: April 21, 2023

Hosts Trevor Sikkema and Connor Rogers talk about some of their favorite potential scenarios for the 2023 NFL Draft. They talk potential trades, landing spots for players, surprise picks in round one, and surprise players who could fall out of round one. That and much more!

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It's awesome. Sign up now at youtube.com slash BS, device and content restrictions apply. Local and national games on YouTube TV. NFL Sunday ticket for out-of-market games excludes digital-only games. Welcome to the NFL Stock Exchange podcast. In this episode, we're talking draft theories, baby. We are just under a week away from the 2023 NFL draft. And with that, we got some takes on what we think is going to happen. Certain trades that we could see happening. What team strategies we think are coming into place.

What's a smokescreen? What's real? All that and so much more. I'm Trevor Sycamore. With me as always is Connor Rogers. Let's ring the bell. Welcome to the open bell of the NFL Stock Exchange Podcast. I'm Trevor Sikama. That is Connor Rogers. Joining you guys with just under a week away from the 2023 NFL Draft.

Last time you guys heard our voices was the Monday episode, the Mock Draft Monday episode, where we dropped a three rounder so in case you guys missed that it did it to them go back you listen to it because that mock draft absolutely did it to them today on the podcast we are once again gonna do it to them and with it just being a week away from draft night or under a week, depending on when you were listening to this, Connor and I wanted to dig into some of our favorite draft theories of what we believe could happen on draft night. Now, some of these, you know, maybe 90% believe this, 70% believe this, 50% believe this,

but it is things that we are going to bring to the table, whether it's trades, picks, situations, how many players are going where, which players are going where, that we really like the more that we've thought about what could actually happen a week from now. Connor, how are we doing, my friend? I'm doing well, man. This is that time of year where I'm a little caffeinated late afternoon, a little sneak in some iced coffee late afternoon because it's, I mean, I'm trying to get through as many day three players as I can. I know you've been doing the same. We're trying to keep the content rolling as well. And it's it's so fun this time of year. You can kind of feel it coming that the

draft is going to be here. It's going to go by real quick. And, you know, Trevor, for me and you, we've been with this draft class for about 11 months. So this is it's it's pretty insane to put a bow on this entire thing, but it's really, really exciting. And today we're going to spend a lot of time on the theater of the draft, the theories, the, you know, this is what this one team could be angling for. It's going to get a little bit galaxy brain at times. Of course, this is quietly one of the greatest things about the NFL draft and why so many people are tuned into all three days of it. Yeah, we were looking at our schedule.

The more we thought about it with just a week or less than a week until draft night, we thought about what you guys would want to hear, what you guys want to talk about. And honestly, it's the same stuff that we want to talk about that we want to hear what's going to happen. We're all on our Twitter timelines, blue check or not, just refreshing the page, waiting for that next rumor, waiting for that next report of what could be, especially in the first round, because that's going to dictate a lot of what we see for the rest of the draft. And so we wanted to dig into all of this. We wanted to have those conversations that we would be doing amongst friends or amongst the timeline, but here with you guys on the podcast. So we've each got three theories that we're going to bring to this episode. We would love to hear you guys' theories as well.

So make sure after you listen to this podcast, comment on the YouTube channel, let us know what you think is going to happen in the upcoming NFL draft. But we'll each have three, so we got six at least, but I'm going to let you guys know as we go through this process, conversations are probably going to lead into conversations and it might get closer to, you know, eight or nine theories that we end up unpacking here on this show. So, Connor, I will let you lead it off.

Or do you want me to? Which one? I feel like I really give you the dealer's choice here on this one. I want you to lead it off because what kind of sparked this idea was a tweet from you. And it generated a lot of attention. And it didn't generate a lot of the attention where it was like, this guy's a dumbass. It generated a lot of attention of like, well, a little bit of that. In a way, you're going to get a little bit of that, of course.

It generated attention of, oh, wait, this guy might be on to something. So I kind of want to, before we get into some new ones, rehash for those that missed yours on Twitter and have a little back and forth on it. Okay, so here's my first theory. And the people who follow me on Twitter already saw this one. And they'll just kind of hear me unpack it a little bit more than it was in 280 characters, however many characters we get on Twitter now. All of the news with the Houston Texans recently has been, maybe they don't draft a quarterback at two. And when we first hear that report, we go, okay, it's full of shit. Like there's no way this is going to happen.

The Houston Texans have the number two overall pick. They're a team that has been void of a franchise quarterback basically since they came into the league. They've had little spurts where they've had some quarterback belief. Obviously, they had a nice little playoff run there in the 2010s. But man, it was never really on the arm or the shoulder of a franchise quarterback. They've been waiting for that. You're sitting here at number two overall.

You've got your pick of a pretty good quarterback class or at least a good quarterback class to invest in. Of course, they got to go with the quarterback, right? Well, maybe not. at least a good quarterback class to invest in, of course they got to go with a quarterback, right? Well, maybe not. If Nick Casario truly thinks that he's not leaving, like the Leo quote from Wolf of Wall Street, which I read earlier this week, that he might have that mentality a little bit,

maybe he can wait until next year. Maybe he can wait until next year's quarterback class. So that's why a lot of rumors have come up that if they don't love any quarterback outside of Bryce Young, who we believe is going number one overall, then maybe they really are going with Will Anderson at number two. And the more I started to think about it, the more I was like, man, I guess that can make sense. And then I had something flip in my mind. And here's where my draft theory begins. I wonder if the Houston Texans are leaking out information because it seems like this information is coming from those

who cover the Texans closely, might know people in the building. I wonder if they're strategically releasing a little bit of information saying, hey, you know what? Maybe we don't love the quarterbacks in this class. Maybe we really are going to take an edge rusher. And the people that they are talking to in the media are spreading that out there that that might happen. Well, that might heavily affect one team that's a little bit further down in the order and number four overall. And that's their division foe, the Indianapolis Colts, who we also know are in on this quarterback class. And that sets up this potential train of thought.

Maybe they're fooling the Colts a little bit here into thinking they don't have to move up. Because if the Colts are going to sit at number four and they assume that Bryce Young is going to go number one overall, but if they think that Will Anderson is going to go too, and if they think that then the Arizona Cardinals might not have as good of a case to trade that pick at number three, maybe Arizona sticks at number three. Maybe they'd say, Hey, Jalen Carter passed all of our tests.

We think this guy is a number one overall caliber player. We're sticking right here and we're taking Jalen Carter. Maybe they love Devon Witherspoon. they love tyree wilson right and they do if houston can convince the colts to believe that there's no quarterback going at two and there's no quarterback going at three then indy doesn't have to move but in reality what houston might be doing is they might be picking they might be thinking quarterback all along. And so they might pick a quarterback at two. And if Indy's out of the conversation to get up to number three, guess what?

Other teams are still in the conversation to maybe get up to three, maybe the Atlanta Falcons, maybe the Seattle Seahawks, maybe the Las Vegas Raiders, maybe the Tennessee Titans all move up to number three to do what? Probably go get a quarterback. Then all of a sudden Houston's master plan may have worked. And Indianapolis might be sitting there at number four

with only one of these big four quarterbacks on the board. And it might be one that they don't even love. So Connor, that is my somewhat galaxy brain draft theory of what might be the reason why we are all of a sudden hearing that Houston might not be in on quarterback at number two. I don't think you're crazy. I definitely think there is something to them being out in front of the Colts, the Colts holding firm this long that they haven't swapped with Arizona already to position themselves into getting one of the top three quarterbacks for

sure, because they are probably feeling like, well, maybe we have a lot of communication with Arizona that before they do any deal, they'll call us to, you know, do right by us and not match it. Cause it would be different, but give us another chance as well. And we don't think they're going to get that deal. So we're comfortable and Houston giving them a little bit more false comfort is not crazy at all. I would love to know the conversations going on with Houston right now, because I see three different groups of power on different timelines. And that is, it can be concerning. It could also be intriguing to me. Go Ryan's year one. I could see to me, we've talked about this to me, go coming in and being like, it's my first year here.

I'm going to win by my defense because that's what I know. And I don't really care about these quarterbacks after Bryce Young. So I'm going to take Tyree Wilson or Will Anderson and get pass rush that anchors, that cogs, that's the cog to my defense, because that's what I had in San Francisco. And that's why we were so successful. Then you have Nick Casario, Trevor, where Nick Casario might not like these quarterbacks after Bryce Young either, but there's also a chance that he doesn't get the opportunity to pick one in 2024. And then you have an owner that's watched the team trot out the likes of Davis Mills and whoever. And I don't know the Texans' jersey sales, ticket revenue, general interest. I'm not an expert in that area, but I do know NFL owners

are obsessed with the idea of superstar franchise quarterbacks because they put butts in seats. They win you football games, or you're told that that's how you win football games. And of course they sell you jerseys as well. It's the face of the franchise. So I bet it's hard to convince an owner there to not take a quarterback. So that's kind of my two cents on top of your theory of why I can believe every angle of Houston right now. The only thing I'm still, should I transition here or did you add it? Yeah,

you can. Okay. I don't want to, I don't want to completely like get off of your or get away from your, the rest of your. The only thing, the only thing that I would say is I mentioned the Titans. There is a team trading up to number three,

and the Titans are obviously in the same division as the Houston Texans as well. So whether or not that really helps them, because it might make the Titans a really good team again immediately if they could get the quarterback that they want at number three. I will say I don't really think the Titans would do that, because I think when you look at the Titans situation and why Houston probably wouldn't have to worry about that.

Rand Carthens, the first year GM of the Titans, what you think that he's going to want to give up multiple premium picks to move from 11 to three on his first year of the job. Probably not right. Swinging the sword pretty early. And I also don't think the Cardinals want to trade out of the top 10.

I don't think they want to jump. I don't think they want to go back that far. So you're still in realm for the Seahawks at five the Falcons today the Raiders at seven the Lions at six. I know I just went out of order and that's probably driving people crazy but the Eagles at three if they want to jump up and get a premier defender, you know, so there are still teams that can trade up to number three that aren't Indianapolis or aren't Tennessee.

That still would make sense for this theory to possibly pull off to where Houston can have their cake and eat it too. But yeah, go ahead. Use this as a, as a springboard onto, onto your next point. I find it fascinating how it's been the week or the week, two weeks of Will Levis everywhere, all the way up to two. When it felt like we were not that far away from where do I put Will Levis in the top 10 of my mock draft? I find that we get closer to the draft. More hype is building on Will Levis. And I just have to ask myself, and it's not really necessarily us, but, but maybe are

we all being played because the name that has died down in the conversation, ironically is Anthony Richardson, who his stock could not have been hotter after the NFL combine. I don't even see Anthony Richardson anymore in the conversation to be taken at two in the conversation to be taken at two in the conversation to be taken at four for the Colts. I mean, I was going through just the odds today, which only means so much. You look at Vegas ain't in the business of losing money though. So it's spot on. Here's the thing. The Texans right now, will Levis is the favorite at plus 250. Number two overall, not 12. Will Levis is the favorite right now.

Then you get down to the third overall pick. Stroud is the favorite because they're buying, clearly, that the top two teams are passing on Stroud and that somebody is trading into three. By the way, that's not good value for that many dominoes needing to fall folks that's bad betting four is where it gets interesting with the cults richardson if i just had to ask you off the top of your head trevor what do you think anthony richardson's odds to go number four overall are right now i would think that they would be

decently high what did you say stroud's are odds were at three stroud's odds at three are plus 125 which is whoa that's a big favorite whoa i know okay i would think that richardson's like i don't know plus 300 something like that to go to go to go number four me too he's plus 425. He's not even in the view right now. Richardson cooling off like this doesn't make any sense. Nothing has gone wrong for him throughout this entire draft process. He's a really good quarterback prospect with elite tools. I think all of this Levis hype, Levis going at two, which the Texans, you never can be shocked. But Levis going at two or four is so ingrained in everyone's brains over these last 10 to 14 days

that I feel like it's both sides just wanting Anthony Richardson completely out of the picture right now. I still think Richardson is going in the top five, despite it looking like per Vegas that he's not. And I think it's extremely tactical that all the buzz about him has completely died over the last seven to 10 days. I think Richardson is fascinating because I bet that there is more favor for Richardson at the top of the pyramid than there is at the bottom parts of the pyramid. And when I say that, I mean, who has the ultimate say on who a team drafts in the first round? The owners do. The owner.

We've seen that, unfortunately, many times before where the owners will come in and be like, no, we're drafting this guy because he's going to change our franchise because he could put butts in the seats. I mean, draft day, the movie kind of plays on that a little bit with the owner being like, yeah, you're drafting, you're trading up to go make a splash to draft the quarterback at the top. And, you know, it's obviously a movie, but those kinds of things happen. If the owner wants something done, guess whose money pays the checks? Theirs.

And so whatever they want is going to happen. Next in the pecking order for most teams are the general managers. And then below that, I would say, is the coaching staff along with the scouting staff who works together. Now, the scouting staff obviously works with the general managers as well. I'm not saying that they're totally separate, but what I'm saying is I could see an owner and the owners in general loving Anthony Richardson. How could you not, right?

He is this like perfectly sculpted quarterback, an absolute dual threat, Marvel athletic ability like we've never seen before. I mean, he is going to be the most drafted, most used player in Madden over the next half decade, right? I mean, he is just a walking, talking, powerful brand for your organization. So I could see why the owners love him. Front office people, yeah, they're trying to make the owners happy. So I could see them obviously liking Richardson as well, but I could also hear them listening to the coaching staff and the

scouting staff. And honestly, I bet scouts and coaches don't love Richardson because of his tape last year. Now I'm not saying that that's a unanimous a hundred percent thing, but I, I feel like there's a lot more coaches and scouts that are way more hesitant on Anthony Richardson than, say, general managers and owners are about drafting him with a premium pick, even just within the top 10. So I wonder if, I do wonder, I was actually asked that question this morning and I was really thinking about it. Is the Levis stuff smoke or are we learning more about what the NFL has probably thought all along

about where Levis should go versus where Richardson should go? Because you mentioned it. Anthony Richardson has done nothing wrong since the season. But if you ask a lot of football people and you say, go back to his tape, a lot of people would tell you extremely inconsistent, not ready. He is a project quarterback. And I don't know how far I would go to believe all that. say go back to his tape a lot of people would tell you extremely inconsistent not ready you know he's he is he's a project quarterback and i don't know how far i would go to believe all that i still think he showed tremendous improvement throughout the season i think his accuracy was kind of

overblown i i do think that he got a lot better as the year went on his first year as a starter but i wonder that too part of my draft theory, and my kind of counter to that in this conversation is, is the Levis stuff smoke? Or was the Richardson stuff maybe more media hype, ownership hype than it was actually what coaches and decision makers and general managers are going to do? I don't know. Neither do I.

It's fascinating to me. And we'll have our answer shortly. I just look at trajectories, age, like we sit here, right? And I'm very guilty of this. We constantly spew the Ballard traits-based quarterback pick, and that's why we've always fallen on Will Levis. It might have been in October, the first time we ever did that whole bit. And then you look at it and go, it's not a bit. It's very real. Yeah.

Yeah, it's very real. If you're going to do that, you're going to do the traits-based pick. You don't do it for the guy with the best traits? Yeah. No, right. Right. It feels like one foot in and one foot out. It does. I don't't know i struggle with that

one so that's where my mind's been i just find it i can't believe how much all the talk has cooled on richardson and how hot it's gotten on levis and i guess i shouldn't be shocked it's gotten hot on levis because we've we've been on this roller coaster since october maybe that levis could easily go in the top three of the draft, top four of the draft, but man, Levis over Stroud is I'm trying to find a comparison for it. And I'm really struggling to find that comparison. I'll let you think about it,

but it would be, yeah, it would be fascinating if here we are a week from now, it ends up being Bryce young and then we'll let us SEC, baby. It just means more. So my second draft theory that I have, this is a question that we ask every year, Connor. And this is something that when we've done mailbags in the past, whether it was on this podcast or

previous podcasts that we've done, around this time of year, this question always gets asked. What team do you think is going to trade back into the first round and for whom? And I think it's a great question because I feel like we do see this all the time, right? Trading back up into the first round gets you the extra fifth year option on a lot of players' contracts when you're a first rounder. So that's very advantageous, gives you more control over the early parts of their career, which is nice. And of course, it just hopefully gets you a better player because you're moving up. I think the Atlanta Falcons are the team

that's going to move back up into the first round. And I'll tell you why. I've got a handful of reasons. They're currently picking number eight overall. At number eight, I think Will Anderson's off the board and Jalen Carter's off the board. I think there's also a chance that think Will Anderson's off the board. I think Jalen Carter's off the board. I think there's also a chance that Tyree Wilson's off the board. Although you guys know me at this point, listening to this podcast, I think that that would be a way overdraft to

Tyree Wilson, but it just seems like the NFL is higher on him than I am. Maybe they draft a Nolan Smith at number eight overall, but that also feels a little bit rich for Nolan Smith in his current state and even the projections that you would have to make for him to be worthy of a top 10 overall pick, but Connor, the corner class star studded and ripe at number eight overall, you could have the choice of potentially Devon Witherspoon, Christian Gonzalez, a Deontay Banks, a Joey Porter Jr. You could even, if let's say Christian Gonzalez and, and Devon Witherspoon are off Christian Gonzalez, a Deontay Banks, a Joey Porter Jr. You could even, if let's

say Christian Gonzalez and Devon Witherspoon are off the board by eight, you can even trade back a little bit and still get a Joey Porter Jr., a Deontay Banks, and get a couple of extra draft picks. The corner spot seems like the spot at number eight overall if you're going to go with a defensive player, but we know that they also need pass rush pretty badly. Terry Fontenot has been the general manager for the Atlanta Falcons since the 2021 draft cycle. So he's had two drafts under his belt. He came from the New Orleans front office,

which is known for being pretty aggressive sometimes when it comes to trading up and going to get your guy. In each of the last two seasons, two drafts, he has traded within the second round. In 2021, he traded back from pick 35 to pick 40 in the second round. And last year, he traded up from pick 43 to pick 38. So he's dipped his toe a little bit in the water in the early parts of day two of moving around a little bit. He scratched that itch. This year, I think he takes it to another level.

I think that they will move from number 44 back up into the first round. And a spot that I look at is the Baltimore Ravens at 22. Because if the Ravens are on the clock at 22 and they don't have a corner, let's say all four of those good corners are off the board. Let's say they don't believe in Emmanuel Forbes because of the weight. Let's say they're kind of stuck at 22. That's a spot where you go, okay, the Ravens don't have a lot of draft picks. Right now, they've only got five

draft picks in this year's draft. Atlanta can offer a pick this year, a pick next year, maybe even a later pick, move up from 44, go up to 22. Maybe you can still even get yourself a Nolan Smith, a Will McDonald, a Felix Anudike Uzama, somebody like that. Some sort of pass rusher along the defensive line that you would love to make that splash. So that is my answer to that question of what team I think could trade back up into the first round. I think it's the Atlanta Falcons for that reason. I really like that. And I think they are at the point where we've kind of seen them

put their foot on the gas a little bit more this off season, right? I know they have the lingering question under center, but the effort to improve defensively has been astronomical where it feels like this team kind of smells blood in the water in the division. Sorry, Trevor. Yes. Just kidding. You don't need to apologize. They smell a little blood in the water in the division,

and they've been there a couple of years now, the regime. And I'm with you. I think the timelines are a theme of drafts and the Atlanta Falcons are showing a little bit more urgency than we're used to seeing. Yep. Yep. Okay. So that's my second one. What do you got? What's your second? My second one, this took the most research out of all of them and this probably won't be received well, but I'm just putting it out there because I know this player has a lot of fans and I get it. He's a good player. There's no denying it. Oh, here we go. Let's go. Let's get into it. There is not much of a pattern for Zay Flowers being around one

wide receiver in draft history. The closest you can find would be Jahan Dotson last year, who was taller. Jahan Dotson's about 5'11". Zay's about 5'9". And why I'm calling this pattern, take away Dotson for a second. No sub 5, and Dotson's not sub 5'10", by the way, so it doesn't really matter. No sub 5'10 wide receiver, Trevor, that's drafted in the first round over the last, I think, about almost 10 years over 10 years. Didn't run a four three. I know it's, I know it's a little cheeky. I understand it's a little nitpicky, but there is a consistent theme. You go through them, right? Jalen Waddle,

sub five, 10. Jalen Waddle runs in3", he's in his sleep. Everybody knows that. You go down to... I think Ruggs was a little taller, but I want to double check on Ruggs. Yeah, Ruggs was 5'11", and he ran 4'27". So it just didn't matter. Let's see. What did Rieger run? He's kind of an interesting one.

He ran slower than people thought did he run in like the four but he's 5 11 206 so he is 25 pounds heavier than zay flowers yeah so then you go down to you keep like you keep going down through this exercise hollywood brown speedster and another guy he was pretty small hollywood brown was in was five nine but everybody knew he was like legit four three speed cory coleman and his game is different you know very different is very different john ross four three four twos cory coleman four threes uh tayvon austin sub 4-4 speed he was a four threes guy right i like it it's just not a common profile that we ever see go in the first round and i can't find somebody right now his over under in the odds is 22 and a half that thing say flowers isn't a lot to go in the first round and

maybe he is a product of a wide receiver class that really needs that next guy. And he's not a bad player. I'm not saying Zay Flowers is a bad player. It is not common for a guy that's 182 pounds, 5'9", and didn't run in the four threes to be a first rounder with all of the track record we have of over the last decade. I mean, this is a, this is one of the theories that I was kind of thinking of to bring to this podcast is buddy. I don't know if we get more than one wide receiver in the first round. It is far from a sure thing. We are trained to believe that there's going to be a lot of wide receivers

that go in the first round. In 2020, there were six. In 2021, there were five. In 2020, there were six in 2021. There were five in 2022. There were six. Okay. So you've got six, five and six.

It's just a modern day NFL. You're drafting pass catchers because that's where you're trying to reload every single season in those classes though. Some stronger than others. There's been legit options to choose from. There's not in this year's class. You listen to a lot of the people who have talked to scouts or, you know, the anonymous executives and people like that. And they go, yeah, I mean,

I'd be cool with drafting these wide receivers in the third round. Now it's probably a lower talent class overall. So how much does that bump them up right because we've talked i think we talked about that when we did the three round mock or at least we talked about it earlier you can only have 10 first round grades in a class guess what 32 players well actually in this case 31 have to still get picked in the first round but yeah you gotta pick players 30 31 players still have to go in the first round. Even if you only have 10 first round grades.

Even if you got a Bill Belichick type of board. You got like seven total players. What was that part of draft day? Was it the Jaguars? What team had a player that like makes six? And so I think the wide receiver class is going to be a victim of this. And I really don't know if we're going to get more than one in there. And I think that at max, we're getting three.

To think that we're going to get five, because we all debate the five, right? At least the four. It's Jackson Smith and Jigba the five right at least the four it's jack smith and jigba it's quentin johnson it's zay flowers it's jordan addison and then some people put josh downs in that conversation i obviously do as my wide receiver four but other people don't other some people think it's a big four some people think it's a big five i don't even think we're getting all those guys in regardless of if you think it's a four or five there is there is certainly a world that we live in where we get one and it's jsn he's the only one that i have heard about is we have talked to people within the league that has enough unanimous yeah i'd draft him in the first round

yeah that would actually make me feel good about it so that's another i mean just to piggyback off of yours yeah maybe zay not being there. I, I don't know. I don't know if any of them go in the first round other than JSN. If I had to pick one, I'm torn between Quinton Johnson and Jordan Addison because Addison won the belicking off. He is such a polished player. And you look at QJ, and he's got size that teams like. He's very good after the catch at his size. But the fact that he's not even considered a guy expected to go in the top 20 shows you the deficiencies in his game at the position.

People don't know what to do with Quentin Johnson because he is 6'3.5 half 215 pounds and he doesn't play with power at the catch point he's he's fine like there there are times when he has gone up to get it in the air like that does happen i'm not saying it doesn't exist in his tape it's why i still like him but when people look at his size they go oh this dude's not nearly the catch point monster that i thought that he was going to be but if you keep watching his tape you go wait a second this six foot and three and a half 210 225 pound guy he's turning on a dime like he's 510 195 yep so he is just an enigma he is not your typical big wide receiver.

And I think people are, they're just scared. They don't know what to do with it. They don't know what to do with them. I still think he's really talented. I'd where did I, where did I have him? I submitted the final big board today, but we're going to, we're not going to get too far into that because we have a full big board episode that we're doing next week.

33rd overall for me. Where is it hold on he's definitely a tricky guy to evaluate hold on folks we're getting to you know we're loading the internet is loading where do i have we are elite podcasting Where did you have him? You said 33? I have him at 27. Okay. So yeah, same bucket. Yeah, same bucket. Same bucket. My goal in this draft class is not to provide you all with elite coverage, but to just

make sure you all remember that Cedric Tillman is bigger than Quinton Johnson. I want nothing more from my coverage of this draft. But nothing less you should you should have put that on a shirt if we were better podcasters we would we would have made you a shirt and you would have just worn it on some episode we have a store at every mall in america with shirts if we actually like like what we're the chart of like the opposite where it's like

good ideas and actual business logic or business acumen. We are a zero business acumen with about 100 ideas. Which podcaster does this represent? And it's like great ideas. Yeah. Implementation. The Madden awareness meme. Yes.

I couldn't think of it. Oh, my God. All right. So my next one that I wanted to get to is, this is a draft theory that I have. Okay. This is a great piggyback and I'm going to tell the people that we did this on purpose and this was totally planned and this transition was flawless. I don't think the league is super in on this wide receiver class, but I do think the league is super in on this wide receiver class, but I do think the league is super in on this tight end class.

And I think you're going to see that itch for drafting a pass catcher be scratched with the tight ends here in this class. I think we're getting like that. I think we're getting three tight ends in the first round. And I think we're getting five total in the top 50. Let's go. I think Darnell Washington, Michael Mayer, Dalton Kincaid all go in the first round.

I'm with you. And I think Luke Musgrave and Sam Laporta go in the top 50. And that's not even mentioning Tucker Kraft, who I don't like Tucker Kraft nearly as much as it seems like other people in the top 50 and that's not that's not even mentioning tucker craft who to i don't like tucker craft nearly as much as it seems like other people in the league do yeah but if you might you might be able to extend this bad boy good we might even get six in the top 60 i don't know if that's ever happened because five in the top 50 has only happened once since the year 2000 and it was 2017 i actually had it up right here that i could have

uh read it off if i was a little bit more prepared david or uh oj howard david and joku evan ingram gerald everett adam shaheen those five tight ends all went within the first 45 picks it's pretty crazy i think we're getting that again this year. I think we're getting five tight ends in the top 50. I won't disagree. The big three, I'm with you that at least top 40. Like you look at, if Mayer and Kincaid don't go in the first round, I'd be really surprised.

And then you look at Darnell Washington and he feels like if he doesn't go in the first round, he's the classic guy everybody in the top 40 wants. Raiders at 38. Panthers at 39. Seattle at 37. I don't know what we're doing if Darnell Washington doesn't go in the first round. Same.

I don't get it at all. If you plop Darnell Washington in different draft classes, maybe it's a different conversation his scouting profile does not change but with this class being more projections than it is polish right no matter who you're drafting it feels like you are trying to project the best out of them you didn't see a ton of it on the field. I'm going to bet on the alien wearing zero playing tight end for the best team in the country. Like that's the guy that I'm going to bet on.

If there are 31 players that go in this draft class ahead of Darnell Washington, I would be floored. So yeah, I know the league likes Mayer as well. I know the league likes Kincaid as well. So that's why I got to think it's three that go in round one. It should be. I mean, I have Washington 17th overall. He's just a good football player.

Oh, hell yeah. I have him 16. There we go. Wait, what do you have? We talked about this is the first time we've acknowledged each other's final boards. Oh, wow. Wait, can I? I'm not.

I don't want to mention my big board because i don't want to spoil the episode entirely but is here tight end one no mayor is ahead of him oh you have married i love mayor i've i've not stopped carrying that okay okay okay all right okay god i can't wait to get to the big board episode it's gonna be a lot of fun oh man it's gonna be fun we're gonna get old takes exposed so hard but we've never missed on a prospect. I was going to say, so it doesn't matter ever. My final theory, not as deep as the other two, maybe. I think I've really started to brace myself for this.

We will all have been very wrong about Bijan Robinson in the mock drafts. I don't even think we've been close, honestly. He's going so much earlier. And here's why it's very hard to predict. In the world where running back discourse is a nightmare, pretty much week in and week out. Right. It's very hard to execute a mock draft and take Bijan Robinson in the top 20 and not also understand that that team has such a bigger need, especially before free agency, which is a majority of obviously this show. And then we get that little window after free agency where we start doing mocks at a higher

rate. Trevor, he's just, he's too good. And I know the nfl works and they are going to look at him and go this pick is a hit i'm going to take my gimme i'm going to take you're throwing me the layup and i am going to take it and i know his odds right now to go top 10 are still plus money plus 120 so he's far from a lock in the top 10 i'm not buying the falcons talk at eight because i think they have so many other pressing needs. Yeah. Wait, what's his over under?

Did you say that? What is it? To be John to go in the top 10 is plus one 20. So Vegas thinks there is at least a conversation to be had there. But I look at nine from Chicago to 21 with the chargers and just think he has to go in that bucket. Like, we have spent almost a year, or at least it feels like a year's worth,

of him being in the Bengals 28, Bills 27, Cowboys 26 combo over and over and over again. I don't even think that's the stratosphere anymore for B. John Robinson. He's just too good in a class that has so much variance in it. There's not 10 players that everybody's stacking up and saying, these are the blue chip guys. There's not. And he's one of the rare ones that you can. And what we've seen gone on with the Vikings and Dalvin Cook, the Chargers and Austin Eckler, I just won't be floored.

I just think he's going a lot earlier than we've let on. I really do. I don't know what the Bears' plans are for running back, but I don't think he gets talked about enough going to Chicago at nine. I like Khalil Herbert. Me too. Deontay Foreman is fine, but... There's no needle mover there. There's no guy that you go, well, they can't take B. John because...

Right, right, right. Now, I'm not... And Bears fans are probably cussing up a storm listening to this podcast. I'm not saying that you should for sure draft B. John Robinson over one of the offensive tackles that's going to be on the board at number nine. But I'm saying that I do think that Bijan to Chicago is under talked about because it should be on the table at least. Here's what you do if you're Chicago and you really love the player and you want him, right? Sometimes you get there you i think you can get

out of this pick i think a team would come up for a tackle i really really do and then you could still take bijan and you have even more draft capital yeah yeah yeah now again we're caveat i think both of us would take off at tackle if we're chicago at nine over bijan but you know that's i'm just surprised that we haven't talked about that more. You know, it's funny. I was on a Bucks podcast, the Cannon Fire podcast. Rhett and Evan, they do a great job covering the team. And B. John, Tampa is one of two top 30 visits that B. John Robinson has taken so far. He's only taken two. Tampa, Philly.

Those are the two. And they asked me on the podcast they were like and they prefaced it by saying you know I know you know first round running backs and it's not really something that you want to do and I almost like stopped him I was like if Bijan's there at 19 we gotta stop like we gotta stop we gotta stop this i i i totally you this is a pff pot right like like we we we get it we get the positional value we work for the company that's probably driven the narrative about you don't draft running backs in the first round but like even sam monson said this i think earlier this week like the narrative with bijan has gone way too far.

This guy is special. This guy is a difference maker. He's an offensive weapon. What you don't want is you don't want to invest premium draft picks into players that are just ball carriers, that are probably going to be rotation players for you anyways, whether because they're limited in skill set or they're just not going to be a player who's going to be able to play for you on all three downs in all situations, no matter what. B. John is a

player who can play for you in any situation on any down in any circumstance. That's a player that you draft. That's an offensive weapon more than it is just the running back tag. So it was just funny because I agree with you completely about this draft theory. He's going earlier than we think. And I think the NFL realizes that too. You listen to a lot of the reports of these anonymous quotes from executives and people within the organization. And some of them don't really hold back.

And some of them don't think this class is very good. You're going to tell me it's buns. You're telling me cheeks is Austin. Gail would say, and has said before here on this show, you're going to tell me that one of the very few, if not only blue chip offensive prospect in this class is going to get out of the top 15 draft is about drafting good players. Now it's about drafting good players at the proper value, but it's also about drafting good players. And sometimes when a draft class just hands you the class the way that you maybe didn't want,

maybe you wish the talent was a lot better overall, you got to take what's in front of you. And I agree with you. So where did you say the range starts for them? I said nine to 21, but you can argue Atlanta at eight. It could start there as much as it shouldn't. Yeah. But you can argue Atlanta at eight. It could start there as much as it shouldn't. Yeah.

I'm tempted to say six, but I don't think Detroit does it. No, I would say I would say that it starts at eight to twenty one. Eight to twenty one. Yeah, it's pretty fair. And nobody had visits with him because he's one of the rare players that there's not really any box left to check. Everybody loves B. John. Come on. The guy's trying to get some free steak.

Come on. Yeah, it's true. You know what? It's free steak. You made a really good point about how... Free steak? Free steak is great. Especially if you're George Karloftis. It's a six-time steak.

I think that it's kind of sad people have been like, and I think it'll change when he goes to a team to that fan base. People aren't trying to enjoy B. John Robinson as a player. Like he, there is no shorter like

adrenaline shot maybe besides Bryce in this draft. I don't think think so you're just saying because it's an easy easy to talk about like he's just like ah he's good that's it no I think it's that people are so tied up in the running back discourse like I don't want my team to get dunked on to be the team that took the running back in the first round that you forget when you turn on your tv on Sundays and watch your favorite team that you have one of the most exciting players in the league on the field for you right away. Like you, because he's a running back. Like every time the guy touches

the ball with his hand, like has the ball, anything can happen. Yeah. It's special. And it's crazy to me because they don't want to be the fan base. That's like getting dunked on for taking a running back in round one because of the bullying that goes on with the running back position value. Yeah, it's it's why I think back and maybe this is just because I was a kid. But the year Reggie Bush was in the draft, everybody was dreaming of the idea of getting Reggie Bush. And I understand, like, maybe not a great example because Reggie didn't turn out to be the superstar that everyone thought, die on the hill, that he would have been in this era.

But it's crazy to me how far we are away that you can't even enjoy a truly great player. Whatever team out there, whatever fan base drafts B. John Robinson, we're telling you right here, right now, enjoy it. He's going to be fun. He's going to make people happy. Get the jersey, have fun.

Take him first overall in fantasy if that's what makes you happy. Get the throwback jersey. You know, like get like whatever. The Bucks cream. Whatever your team was wearing in the 90s, get that jersey, but be John Robinson. Yeah.

This is the last one because that was three from each of us. I know we got into a couple of tangent ones this one's a little bit of a bonus i have a growing suspicion that khalid jacanzi isn't going in the first round and it would be sad for me because i have him graded as a pretty high player. Same. I think he is one of the better playmakers in this draft class. The size of course worries me as it does everybody, but the things that I've heard make it seem like the NFL is even lower.

Like the NFL is like, yeah, we draft him in maybe the middle of day two. I'm like, man, middle of day two in this class for that player that's got those kind of highs on tape? Outlier size-wise, for sure. That's a mistake. But yeah, I feel as though there's a growing reality that he might not be a round one player.

I hope I'm wrong, but that is a draft theory that I have, that he might not be around one player I hope I'm wrong but that is a draft theory that I have that he might not be around one player wouldn't be shocked because that it goes back to the Zay Flowers combo right and it's different even for Kancy because Kancy for me is a top 15 player in the draft I love the guy I don't know I'm top 15 but he's not that far behind I mean where it's this the combo is this kind of player traditionally doesn't go in the first round of the draft. That's the conversation, right? You could love him. You could think he should, but

there's also a part of this job where you do your research of does the NFL and whenever we kind of get to the can't see conversation, it feels like a lot of it is Philly at 30. Maybe, maybe. If that doesn't happen, well, then the Cansey conversation, it feels like a lot of it is Philly at 30. Maybe.

Maybe. Yeah. And if that doesn't happen, well, then, you know, guess what, buddy? You're in round two of the draft. How far would he fall if he made it to round two? Like, who are the teams in round two at the top? Imagine the Rams take him at 36. I mean, that'd be fucking sweet that'd be stupid

Connor what do you mean that'd be sick Aaron Donald and Kalijah Canty every team in the NFL is just running power yeah but it's cool oh man yeah where would he go okay so if he I mean do the Steelers just take him at 32 I don't think so no dude Pittsburgh product I mean it would be gnarly him and Kenny Pickett then they're Then they're going to draft Jordan Addison at 49

and just get the band back together. Jordan Addison falling to 49 out of nowhere. Like, he just snuck that in. Well, my friend, if you looked at my big board, which we'll talk about early next week. Yeah, I don't know. I can't. The Rams, obviously, I think would be.

Come on, dude. It's awesome. I mean, the Seahawks could be a choice. They could be a choice. Absolutely. Raiders at 38. They need pass rush in the middle. I don't know.

It doesn't necessarily help. I think Seahawks. I think they need to get stronger. See, I think that's it, Trevor. Like, they lost Quentin Jefferson. They played him a ton last year. He plays at, what, 290? He is lighter, isn't he? Yeah.

Oh, yeah. And he's not good against the run at all. They don't care. 291. All right. I misspelled Quentin Jefferson in Google and it brought up

Quint's Quality Services and it's a it's a picture of a what is this is a four wheeler what is this it's like a used electronic truck and then next to it's like a

four-wheeler i don't know what you have here is that quentin jefferson's logo is it a four-wheeler oh no it's just collide you can't see actually everybody's got a logo everyone's doing it oh yeah so that's serious we knew it'd get off the rail yeah we knew it would get off the rails let us know your draft theories we want to read them in the comments this is the time we're a week out from the draft let us know what you think is going to happen something that not a lot of people are talking about or maybe it is something that people are talking about that you want to go against that you absolutely agree with whatever it is we want to read all of y'all's comments on what you think is going to happen on round one or even round two of draft night how you guys think the nfl draft is gonna

go best way you can do that of course on the youtube uh on our youtube channel in the comment section youtube.com backslash at nfl stock exchange if you guys are audio only you can hit us up on twitter at tim bay tray at connor j rogers no longer have the blue check so you know who knows yeah they came swipe that thing good could be why why west you might be you know tweeting it the not the real me i don't know a lot of imposters out there i guess but um you could also hit us up on instagram as well same handles same no verification where you are you verified are you verified on instagram yeah i know all right so my trash bum ass doesn't have verification but it took a long time like a really long time you are going to see that

sweet sweet check mark on his instagram profile um we are also running a promo over at pff.com if you guys don't have a pff subscription therefore don't have the pff draft guide you can do so right now for 40% off if you use promo code DRAFT40. It's all caps DRAFT and then 40. That's going to get you 40% off a PFF subscription. It'll of course allow you to get the draft guide. It'll get you a lot of the locked content.

It'll probably be the analysis after the draft on what we think each player is going to fit with the team, where they fit in the scheme, how we give out the draft grades for all the different teams, all that good stuff. And then, of course, if you have a year-long PFF subscription, then you get all that stuff until next year's draft as well. So get it.

40% off. It's a great deal. Draft 40. It's the best way to do that. Conor, you got anything else before we get out of here? No, I think that's a great deal. I mean, you get all the sweet numbers and stats that we like to use in our evaluations as well as the content.

I think that wraps it up. I know people are probably wondering, what does our week look like next week? Probably, you know, I'm wondering that, too. Same a little bit. So you'll probably get more information on that if you listen to Monday's show, to be honest with you. So we'll let you know. I mean, we do know we have a ton of stuff coming your way.

Like, no fear on that. This show is going to be rolling. We'll have a final mock draft. We will have a big board show. Trevor and I actually put our pea brains together and came up with a plan for draft weekend. Yes, we did. You can talk about that if you want.

So I'm making sure I'm remembering it right. We will have a recap show of night one yes when you all wake up from your deep slumbers yes on day two friday of the draft yeah or i mean or you can stay up right well yeah i think depends on if ryan's gonna stay up with us. Pretty good point. Is Ryan a true grinder? That's a lot to put on. No, we already know he is. I'm just I'm just kidding.

Ryan, Ryan, you have a night one recap. Yeah, right. And Trevor and I, whenever we're done at our day jobs, we're not like doing it in the morning. We are staying up and recapping together night one of the draft so round one recap and then after saturday we will record a full draft recap with grades yes yes reaction grades for each team so you will get your fix after night one and then your full fix after the third day of the draft, not something in between after day two. We want to kind of bundle day two and three together for a full look of the draft class,

because here's the reality. After night one, you freaking sleep like after night two, you sleep three hours, then you blink and everyone's back on the clock for day three. It would have no shelf life for all of that analysis. We're going to package all that analysis into that episode. It's going to be a monster. Like, I don't know how long it's going to be, but recapping that much stuff and then we'll keep it rolling from there. But that's,

that's a lot coming your way during draft week from us. Yep. So in that time, you did a great job allowing me to pull up the schedule because I couldn't find it. Monday, final big board episode. So Connor and I are going to go over our final big boards on Monday.

That's going to be the episode that we have on Monday. Wednesday, we're leaving it open, which is kind of like a what we're hearing in episode. So, you know, we're getting a couple. It's going to be 48 hours from draft night. It's going to be kind of maybe similar to this podcast episode where we're just talking about the things that everybody's talking about that we want to weigh in on.

So that'll be fun. And then we have our final mock draft. We're going to record it late on Wednesday, but then you guys are going to get it on so that'll be fun and then we have our final mock draft we're going to record it late on wednesday but then you guys are going to get it on thursday so you guys are going to be able to hear our final predictive what we think is going to happen mock draft for thursday and then we'll work together on that i feel like yeah yeah we usually go like back and forth pick by pick i think that'll be us just making each pick together yep we'll tell you what we think is going to happen in the draft and then uh like like con said, we'll have a night one recap,

and then we'll have grades for all 32 NFL teams on the Sunday episode. A lot going on over the next 10 days. This is the final stretch, but this is the most fun. We not only have our final predictions, our final rankings, but also get to see what is going to happen in the 2023 NFL draft. I am Trevor Sikama. That is Connor Rogers. Thank you guys so much for listening

to the NFL Stock Exchange Podcast. See you next time. Bye.