NFL Stock Exchange: An NFL Draft Podcast - 175. 2023 Offensive Rookie of the Year Draft

Episode Date: May 23, 2023

Hosts Trevor Sikkema and Connor Rogers revisit their annual tradition of drafting against one another their top offensive rookie of the year candidates for the 2023 season

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It's awesome. Sign up now at youtube.com slash BS, device and content restrictions apply. Local and national games on YouTube TV. NFL Sunday ticket for out-of-market games excludes digital-only games. Welcome to the NFL Stock Exchange Podcast. In this episode, we are once again visiting

our yearly tradition of drafting Offensive Rookie of the Year candidates. Of course, we can sit here and talk about guys that we think are gonna win Rookie of the Year, but we wanna put a little skin in the game. We wanted to make it fun. So attacking this topic with a draft format. So Connor and I will go back and forth drafting guys that we think could end up as rookie of the year. Plus we will revisit our offensive rookie of the year draft that we had last year to remind you guys who won that draft and how that draft ended up going.

I'm Trevor Sink. I'm with me as always is Connor Rogers. Let's ring the bell. Welcome to the opening bell of the NFL Stock Exchange podcast. I'm Trevor Sikama. That is Connor Rogers. Joining you guys after a week off, but Connor, it felt like it was months. It felt like it was years. I feel like I haven't seen your face and heard your voice in forever. The people have been tweeting at us, wondering where we went,

if we went into hiding, if there was ever going to be a Stock Exchange podcast again. Well, here it is, folks. No, I appreciate you guys dealing with this. Our summer schedule is kind of like we said, they're going to be a little all over the place. We're trying to do at least one per week, Well, here it is, folks. No, I appreciate you guys dealing with this. Our summer schedule is kind of like we said. They're going to be a little all over the place.

We're trying to do at least one per week, but last week, life kind of got in the way in a lot of different ways, so we're going to make it up for you this week by giving you two episodes because we love you so much, starting with today's topic, which is drafting Offensive Rookie of the Year candidates. Connor and I did this last year, and we'll go over some of the results in the draft that we had last year before we dig into it this year. But we'll snake draft it. We'll go back and forth because I don't want to just pick

offensive rookie of the year candidates. It's much more fun to draft, as people know here on this show. But Connor, my friend, how are you doing? I'm good, man. It's exciting to run this one back. Obviously, a lot of excitement around the rookie of the year races, whether it's offensive rookie of the year, defensive rookie of the year. And it's good for us to be back, man. It's excited to run this one back. Obviously a lot of excitement around the rookie of the year races, whether it's offensive rookie of the year, defensive rookie of the year. And it's, it's good for us to be back, dude. It's,

we had a little bit of a break. I like that. We, we kind of kept it mysterious for no reason really at all. We just went off the radar a little bit. We were like, uh, Mike Goodson and Mike Goodson X jets running back that the team just like lost. You ever hear about this? They just like lost contact with him. He was literally missing from the team just like lost. You ever hear about this? They just like lost contact with him. He was literally missing from the team. Yeah.

So wait, wait, like during the season, it was like during mini camp, like June, like they signed him. And then like, he was supposed to show up for team workouts and they were like, we can't get in touch with him.

So he was okay. He was okay. Kind of. He had some problems like off the field but like like physically he was yes he was alive that's like that's like the dennis rodman stuff did you watch the last dance documentary where exactly where is he and he was on wwe which is way cooler by the way way cooler we didn't do that we were not on wwe we just weren't we just weren't recording shows we should be back we i was gonna say we should have not done the shows and then just posted pictures of me and

you in vegas inside wearing sunglasses um just playing craps probably losing money at crafts but just like out of nowhere people are like that's where they are they're supposed to be cryptic like just post like random locations not even in the picture and with no caption on Twitter. That would have been the way to go. We are glad to be back with you guys as you can't tell because we love doing this podcast. But I love today's topic. Today's topic is a really great turning of the page from draft recaps,

which you can obviously see over at the YouTube page. We did a much longer, I think, two hour podcast. We broke some of those off into little episodes as well. But you can hear our draft grades and our draft analysis for all 32 NFL teams. So if you're wondering where that is, it's already up there. We gave it to you guys instantly right after the draft, so you can go listen and watch that if you want to. But after taking that week off, we're kind of turning the page into some summer content. And we're going to get to summer scouting. Summer scouting's in a couple of weeks away. We normally start that at the beginning of June, which we are but we got a couple of episodes

before then so we thought it was really fun to do some of those drafting segments that we did last year we're going to draft offensive and rookie or offensive and defensive rookie of the year this week and then next week we're going to have even more fun we're going to expand it even further we're going to draft against one another under 25 teams in the NFL so guys who are under the age 25 by week one we're going to draft those against each other but dude I like this format because it gives us a little bit of pride as we are predicting what we are going to see and do you remember how our offensive rookie of the year draft went last year because I got the sheet up right now.

I don't know if you're looking at it. Do you have it? I got to look at it the weekend before we taped this show because I really didn't remember. I was like, I don't know. I've assumed each of us had or one of us, whoever it may be, picked winners. But I didn't know when, how close we were. And then ultimately, we each came away with one winner but it is funny where we hit them trevor you had okay so i'm looking at this now that the offensive rookie of the year

drafted we did last year i think you went first because we snake drafted it and i think you went first you went with breeze hall then i would be very like me yes first overall homer and it looks good no i'm kidding it was a great pick it ended up being a great pick then i went back to back drake london trailing berks you then went kenny picky chris olave i then went sky more kenneth walker almost yeah you were real close then you went gary then you went christian watson and with your last pick of the draft you went with gary wilson so you got the winner you got the offensive rookie of the year winner with your last pick of this draft last year last pick the the hail mary

dart throw it's so funny though when you think about it and because people might be sitting there and go why would gary wilson go in that draft? At the time of that recording, I mean, he was not getting the reps ahead of or expected to get the targets ahead of Corey Davis, Elijah Moore, or Braxton Berrios at the time. And it went all the way to really the second half of week one against the Ravens. Then they start putting him on the field and he was phenomenal ever since then.

So it goes to show you, I do think this year is a little different, but it goes to show you doing this exercise almost before summer even begins, how much things can change. Yeah, no, no question about it. There's a, there's a lot that you learn i think especially during training camp in the preseason right now and look even if that was the case i did not expect the fall off that was the elijah moore saga with the jabs right i mean like it was as if that dude was was barely even on the team and it was like no no we got to force feed gary wilson early and so it makes sense when you go back to even the beginning of the regular season what was happening with

elijah moore how much they wanted to get the ball in this guy's hands but uh great pick by you great pick you know what sir you know what we didn't do last year we didn't appropriately come up with a like what happens with the winner you and i just did it you and i do so many drafts like we do drafts during many drafts. Like we do drafts during the summer. I feel like we do drafts during the season. You know, like we'll place bets. But I feel like we should do something. Like you guys out there listening to the show, let us know what you think the stipulation should be.

I don't know. Like, should I have to buy Connor a jersey or like some merchandise or like vice versa like whatever like come on i don't i don't really want it to be a punishment you know like right i don't i don't want the loser to get punished i went to winner to win something so yeah i like that i i would love to uh put the brain power of the the addicts together to see what the winner should get after like a full year of you and I taking bets and people voting on teams. Like I know people are going to vote on our under 25 teams.

So like that will be one point as well. Let us know what you guys think before we dig into it. So wanted to shout that out to him. All right, buddy, you want to, you want to take the first pick again, or do you want the second pick because you draft style. So it goes back to back. think i have an idea i think the winner of last year's gets to pick what they want to do oh you're saying that it just in these two drafts the offensive and so i will get to pick what i want to do for offense and spoiler alert trevor won defensive rookie of the year so when we do

that show you will get to pick that's fair right yeah no no i think that that's fair i think we should okay i will take the first pick then which is i mean come on there's a reason this guy is going one damn one and why did i agree i was like oh yeah this sounds fun let's do it. And I realized and I realized the player that you're getting it. Number one. Right. So here's my take with B.

John Robinson. Now, when you look at a lot of sports books, he is traditionally hovering as we record this at plus 250 to plus 300. He is a pretty heavy favorite, although not a runaway. He's not like plus 150 and everybody's a mile away because this is an award where if you play well as a quarterback, you could definitely win it. Trevor, my take with B. John Robinson is at the point that I think he is severely undervalued in the offensive player of the year running right now. Like he's a super, super, super long shot. And when you look at Bijan,

he probably went to the perfect landing spot for his instant production. Yeah. Where you can understand they will know how to use him in a receiving and running back role. When Arthur Smith was the Titans offensive coordinator in 2019 and 2020,

Derrick Henry had almost 700 combined carries in that two-year span. Bijan is obviously a significantly more threatening receiving player from the backfield as well. And this is an offense that with the right side and Chris Lindstrom and Caleb McGarry and the addition of Matthew Bergeron and really kind of saying YOLO at quarterback,

they are going to run the hell out of the ball and scheme up catch and run touches. So now injuries and they happen at the look at B, look at Brees Hall last year. Brees Hall was on this fast track to the winning. This award gets her season injury. Kenneth Walker, if he probably,

if he starts the year healthy, he wins offensive rookie of the Walker, if he starts the year healthy, he wins Offensive Rookie of the Year. But he had the injury in camp. So that's the massive risk in picking running back for this award in May. But there's just no other selection for me here. No, I think you're right. Just going back to how much Arthur Smith

clearly wants to run that offense on the ground. Like you mentioned, we saw Tyler Algier be a 1000 yard back, you know, and this is a fifth round rookie. And you know that they're going to give B. John Robinson all sorts of value, not just in the run game, but in the pass game. And I think that it matters to me. We're going to go over this in the next two episodes. It probably shouldn't matter as much as it does but name and fame do go into this award like how highly you were selected will go into this award because if bijan here's the thing and and i think that early production also means a ton especially

if you were selected early bijan's a top 10 overall pick. If B John comes out and let's say, let's say he starts off super hot, like four straight 100 yards from scrimmage games and NFL network sitting here talking about how, you know, he's on pace for this. He's on pace for that four straight games of over a hundred yards for scrimmage,

whatever it is. Even if he has a middling year, I think from then on out, if there are just one or two or three games in between that point at the end of the season that he rushes for over 100 yards, his stat volume is going to be good enough, and he's probably going to win the award unless somebody absolutely goes nuclear. You're 100% right. He already has so many things going for him he's going to be a first round pick and redraft the fantasy leagues maybe going in the top five by the time we get

there he's the 1.1 pick in dynasty leagues unless you're going to take anthony richardson for super flex so he already has the entire hype of the fantasy community the hype of being a top 10 pick the hype of being the centerpiece of an offense that could win the division there's a chance yeah i mean it's like when you and to your point if he has those first four games that you mentioned these odds go from plus 300 or plus 250 to probably minus 150 yeah you look at minus money yeah yeah so there it is okay so now you got two picks which is really fun yeah i uh one of the picks i think is expected i don't know if you would think that i would take the second guy uh the first guy that i'm taking is bryce young simply because he should be the starting quarterback in week one

right I we could sit here and say oh you know Andy Dalton could be the guy you know you don't have the pros should start Bryce right away there's not really any part of Bryce's game or Bryce's scouting report over the last two years that have told me oh he needs time before he starts at the NFL level. No, no, no. He just needs reps. Like, that's it. The dude's unbelievably smart, processes things so well, and he's not going to learn how NFL

regular season speed happens on the bench. And that's really all you're looking for with Bryce Young. So I think he's going to be the starting quarterback week one. Dog, number one overall pick, going to be the starting quarterback in week one. Great analysis, Trev. But becausev but because it matters a lot though yeah I just think the volume is going to be there for them right it's a division that's not super strong right if Bryce was getting plopped into the AFC East or the AFC North like whatever it is then all of a sudden like okay you're you're guaranteed to play three really good teams

twice that's that's a tough ask on your schedule and that's not even talking about some of the other divisions that you might be playing but the nfc south in general has one of the easier divisions in the nfl when it comes to strength of schedule so i think the schedule's on his side i think that the volume is going to be on his side and i think that this is often a quarterback award or although it's not as much of a runaway as you might think and that's just simply because Volume's going to be on his side. And I think that this is often a quarterback award, although it's not as much of a runaway as you might think. And that's just simply because these guys, especially if they are starting early,

like let's look at the last offensive rookie of the years at quarterback. Justin Herbert started early. Kyler Murray started early, right? Like these guys have had a ton of volume in their rookie seasons that have allowed them to put together enough confidence to get the votes over some of those other guys. So Bryce, simply from a volume perspective, I think has to be my pick here. I'm with you completely. I mean, number one, like you said, he's going to start. He's pro ready. He's in a division that he could feast on it I think at times he's a great coaching staff and the reality is if you have a winning record as a rookie quarterback you probably win

you probably win yeah I mean remember remember the Brock Purdy conversation at the end of last year like there was like legitimate course I remember the Brock Purdy conversation. It was nauseating, but there was legitimate people that were like, he should win Offensive Rookie of the Year. And it's like, well, no, but if he played three or four more games, yeah. Maybe. Maybe.

So, that's, quarterback wins are a hell of a drug, and they severely impact awards like this. So I now I do think I know where you're going for number two, despite you saying I would probably be surprised. OK, where do you think I'm going to Anthony Richardson? No. OK, I thought you were going to go quarterback quarterback there. No, no. OK, this is fun, then. This is really fun. I won't tell you. I won't tell you where Richardson is on my big board because, of course, it is a draft,

and we're going to have a lot on the line. We don't know what's on the line yet, but a lot is on the line. Yeah, I would only do one guess, not to go crazy on draft strategy. So, B. John Robinson has the first overall odds. He's plus 300, like you mentioned. Bryce Young, I did want to mention, he's plus 430. So, he has right now the second highest or best consecutive bob so it is pretty close the next guy i'm going

with has the fifth highest odds at plus 900 i'm going with detroit lions running back jameer gibbs i'm going with gibbs here man look replacing jamal william I think, is going to be massive in this equation. Because Jamal Williams had a very sneaky 17 rushing touchdowns last year. Now, some people might go, okay, well, they clearly didn't really like DeAndre Swift. They weren't really in on DeAndre Swift. I mean, he's not even on the team anymore. So clearly that wasn't really going to be a factor. It's not like they were dying to get this guy the ball.

But he still had five touchdowns. This is a team that had 23 total rushing touchdowns last year. Ben Johnson's coming back. The offensive line is going to be better. The offense is going to be better overall. This is a team that's probably going to be on a playoff run. They're going to be on a playoff push. I think they probably win the division this year.

Wins do kind of go into this because you're talking about these teams all the time and this team drafted jamir gibbs at number 12 overall for a reason they're gonna give him the ball and i and i i get it david montgomery's on this team i think he's going to certainly be a factor but even even david montgomery's best stats, okay? Going back to his days in Chicago, okay? He started 16 games last year, 800 yards, five rushing touchdowns. Year before, started 13 games, 849 rushing yards, seven rushing touchdowns. The year before in 2020, he had over 1,000 yards in 14 games and eight touchdowns. But it's not like this guy's just been a touchdown fiend. I think there's a lot of rushing production to be had in this offense.

And even if it's like this, even, even split, I think Jameer Gibbs could be close to eight, nine, 10, maybe even double digit touchdowns. If he gets lucky in the situations that he's playing it.

So I just, the way that they talked about Jameer Gibbs after they drafted him, Sounded very familiar to the way that you would hear the Atlanta Falcons talk about B. John Robinson. In that they want to use him all over the offense in every way that they can because he gives them that extra juice. So for Jameer Gibbs to have the fifth best odds at plus 900, not only do I think this is a best bet, but I'm taking him here as my second overall selection in the offensive rookie of the year draft. I don't think you're crazy at all. I mean, also with the Jamison Williams suspension, that's six games of extra targets or touches, whatever you want to call it to go around for a guy that when they drafted him, I just went, man, they really want like an Alvin

Camara for their offense. Like that role, not that player, but that role after adding David Montgomery, where Gibbs is going to get a lot of looks and Gibbs is really, really explosive for a team that you look at the track record, the small track record of what Ben Johnson's been able to do in this offense and golf being able to really get in rhythm in this offense with a good line. Gibbs could be in for a really really big season it's funny how we talk about not we have the general narrative is around Gibbs and I think it exists because he was in the same class as B. John Robinson and I think if he wasn't the general outlook on Gibbs would be much different because at the end of the day I had him as a top 20 talent and when they took him I was surprised but once i let

it marinate i'm like in a class with a lot of uncertainty the line's got one hell of an offensive threat so and again i think the passing game is going to really be able to alleviate the run game i just think the familiarity of goff and ben johnson the quarterback offensive coordinator duo there is going to continue into this year the offensive line is going to get even better still like the passing weapons that they have right and so um i just think the offense in general is going to be elevated uh with detroit so i think gibbs is going to be a big time benefactor of that not saying he's going to get 17 touchdowns but shoot man okay if he gets eight nine ten anywhere like that you're talking about a ton of production for this guy. So yeah, Bryce Young and Jameer Gibbs,

my first two selections here. All right, so I'm going to go Anthony Richardson in this spot. Now, there's a lot of variables here that obviously scare you. One being that it's not a sure thing he's going to start, although he should start. Number two, obviously a player that didn't get to play an overwhelming amount in college and will have some hiccups throughout his rookie season.

But a couple of things. He's on a good team. He is an explosive play threat, whether it's with the deep ball or whether it's with his legs. I believe in Shane Steichen to utilize his running threat in the red zone, like we saw with Jalen Hurts, that there could be sneaky touchdown production on the ground here right away for Richardson. And honestly, it goes back to your

argument with Bryce young Trevor. I mean, if the Colts win as many games as I think they can, and Richardson's the starter, he's just going to hover around for this award. He doesn't have to throw for 300 yards every single week he can really honestly he could probably throw for about 170 a week rush for another 60 plus a week average one throwing touchdown and one rushing touchdown in that kind of stretch and you're looking around and going damn the Colts are six and four or whatever it is. I mean, it's just hard to leave him sitting on the board that long because of the explosive play threat that he is. And somebody that honestly I think really should start right away,

but we're just not sure if that's going to happen. Yeah, I think the touchdowns are a major part of what goes into this award, right? Because not only are we trying to pick players that are in good situations that we believe are going to produce, they also have to produce in a certain way that appeals to nfl voters the way that we have seen them vote in the past and i and i do believe that richardson the reason why i didn't go with him as one of my first two selections and i had him fourth like he would have been the next guy that i picked so we've got my my top four guys off of the board right here in the first four picks. But the reason why I didn't have him a little bit higher, despite the potential volume that he could have, is because I think it will be unfair to him.

The narrative that he has to overcome as a passer that might take away from some of the votes that he might normally get. Like, even if Richardson's having an okay year efficiency wise, like even if the accuracy is pretty decent for a rookie quarterback, all things considered, you know, if the completion percentage is where it needs to be, if the turnover worthy play rate is about average, you unfortunately know there's going to be those one,

two, three plays where it will be a turnover worthy play or it will be a bad misthrow and somebody watching that's going to go see I mean I told you he wasn't accurate enough for the league and that is something that I just think is going to be going against him he's really going to have to I think play very very well from a rushing standpoint to overcome. And he's also going to have to play well as a passer too. So I think Richardson, if things were in a vacuum,

I probably would have picked him as one of my first two selections. But I just think, unfortunately, the narrative is against him and what people talked about him pre-draft. And if you see a handful of those throws, are those the ones that you remember the most? Are those the ones that are going to sway voters? So I don't disagree with anything you said. I just wanted to throw that out when it comes to Richardson,

potentially winning this award for anybody who might be thinking about putting some money on it. I think you're, I think you're right. This is the point of the draft where you're kind of looking at ceiling rather than floor. I think my first pick in your first pick were floor picks. And then we get to this point

in the draft and you start to kind of swing for the fences of the ceiling of what the guy could be and number three actually goes against that grain a little bit because figuring out the over my third pick figuring out the overall target share right away is a little tricky for this guy but i go back to the talent and how i saw him and I have to take Jackson Smith and jig, but here. Okay. All right.

Okay. Let's start with what's going against him for this award. Yep. He is in an offense that illustrated by taking Zach Charbonnet in the second round when they already have Kenneth Walker, they have added so much firepower, this offensive line. It's part of the reason probably they wanted Russ

out of there. They want to run the football, and I have no problem with that. Pete Carroll is a guy that wants to lean on the ground game as much as he can, and it opens up the play-action game for them throwing. And DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett are still in this offense, and DK Metcalf probably will be for a large duration of JSN's early career. Lockett, we'll see, but still an effective football player. If Seattle says we're not going to be as run heavy as perceived and JSN is going to live in the slot, Lockett is going to be in a vertical threatening role. But JSN is going to have a lot of short area targets to work with. He's got a shot to

have a really big rookie season. I like his long-term outlook way better than his short-term outlook, but I'll still take him here because if you get one injury to Metcalf or Lockett, he's going to have a really big year. He's pro ready. He's such a good possession threat. He's a great route runner. I think gino will really love to have this guy to work the middle of the field so this is definitely more of a talent pick rather than instant role uh outlook for jsn yeah and he's gonna he's gonna contribute right away he has to i mean it's just a matter of how much and i think that you're right it's it's a little bit of a floor pick with jsn because you know they're to put him in a situation where he's very comfortable, I think, in this.

And he's good. Right. And they're going to keep Lockett off the line of scrimmage. And, you know, when they go to just two wide receiver sets, I think, of course, it's going to be Metcalf and Lockett in that right in that instance. But when they go to those three wide receivers, I think Smith and Jigba is going to play a lot in the slot. They'll use Tyra Lockett as more of a flanker because he's more experienced. They could play him to the outside just off the line of scrimmage while Metcalf can play on the strong side. But I do still think it's a good pick. I think that with the projected volume that Smith and Jigba is supposed to get,

if the rest of the class around him just doesn't like the world on fire. Again, Seattle could be a big headline team. We could be talking about a big three of their wide receivers and Smith and Jigba is going to be one of them. So you're going JSN there. I'll go with the other receiver. And I'm curious, were you debating between Smith and Jigba and Jordan Addison? Because I'm going to go. OK, because I'm going to go. Okay. Because I'm going to go.

I almost took Addison. And I would value Addison higher in redraft fantasy right now. I would. Because he's the number two. He plays across from Justin Jefferson. Yeah. It's this is very, this was very, very difficult for me. So I can understand it.

And certainly the folks at Vegas do as well, because Smith and Jigba was plus 1200 to win rookie rookie of the year which is six the best odds and jordan addison was right behind him plus 1600 and i think that's wrong i think addison's odds are too long if i was setting those odds for a book i would have him closer to plus 1350 plus 1400 so he's he's the value pick on the board to me i would as well and i going to go Addison here for the reasons that you mentioned. I think that everybody, whether you were high on Addison as a prospect or lower on him, like I was, I had him as a top 50 player, but I was a little bit lower on him. I said I had him more of a second round pick kind of a guy. I still love where he landed. And I think that this is a great spot to get the most out of whatever Jordan Addison can be. Certainly the

factor of playing on the opposite side or same side or whatever, just the same team as Justin Jefferson means a lot because all the attention is going to go to Justin Jefferson. And it has to, right? One of the most productive receivers over the last three years, maybe the most productive receiver

over the last three years, depending on what categories you're looking at. But if you're throwing the dartboard at wide receiver categories, good chance he was the most productive there. So you know that that's not going away. I think the offensive line is going to be better but i i do wonder what's going to happen in the running game is dalvin cook going to be out of there there's the rumors of dalvin cook

might not be he might not be in minnesota anymore so if dalvin cook's not there sure okay you say to yourself all right we like alexander madison where are you giving alexander madison the same volume that you gave dalvin cook when he was healthy? No, probably not. So you're probably throwing a lot more anyways. That means that Addison's taking that number two wide receiver spot and getting that volume there. You know, he's going to see a lot of single coverage, no matter where he's lined up because of the Jefferson's factor.

And another factor here, Connor, I don't love the Viking secondary this year. It's guys that have a lot of question marks. Andrew Bruth has questions to answer. Byron Murphy, okay, nice corner, but how much has he really changed in that room? Caleb Evans is the other guy on the outside. And so it's like, you look at this secondary, and if the pass rush, which just lost to Darius Smith, if the pass rush isn't what it needs to be,

that secondary is going to be in for a long year. There are going to be a lot of points on the board for the other team, no matter whether it's home or away for the Minnesota Vikings. And I think they're going to be throwing a lot. So if you just look at the offensive side of the ball, I think you can envision some volume for Jordan Addison. But if you look at the defensive side of the ball as well, I think that only increases those volume odds for him so if you're out there and you are a sports better jordan addison plus

1600 to win rookie of the year it's pretty decent bet yeah and there are currently odds at one sports book um that i won't give the promo to but as high as plus 1700 so if you do your homework you could actually get the you can get you can get serious value on Jordan Addison and Trevor that would have been a no-brainer pick for me that you just took I'm torn here Connor for my next oh this is where now now we're in the nitty-gritty like there is and there is no deny I know there's one player out there that people are like oh how do you not take them yet but I don't think it's that easy of a spot. I am going to take Stroud. Yep.

I'm going to take Stroud here. I was not going to take him really anything before this. All six of the players that were selected here in this draft were higher on the board than C.J. Stroud was. And I just don't know what his production is going to be this year. You're coming from an environment from Ohio State that you were just surrounded by premium talent. C.J. Stroud had the best supporting cast every single game of college football that he played outside of maybe the last one that they lost against Georgia.

That's it. He had better talent to go to in basically every single other game. And I know Michigan fans are going to clap back at me a little bit there. But I'm just talking about like five stars in talent throughout over the last two years, especially if you take both of those into account, man, the offensive side of the ball was unbelievable for Ohio State. The talent along the offensive line was crazy. He had all sorts of time to be the pocket passer that he wanted to be. He had the offensive weapons to have faith in, to throw it up there, even in tight coverage.

That's no guarantee at this level. I like what the Texans are doing along the offensive line. It should be nice. But even then, it's going to be a massive adjustment to nfl speed and nfl defensive fronts from what stroud is used to and then when it comes to who's he going to throw to you know it's hold on let me make sure that i can give houston their proper due here with the depth chart that they've they. Sorry, Tankdale. Oh, sorry, Tankdale Goat.

Robert Woods, who I like, but okay. John Mechie, who I like, but don't know what we're getting out of John Mechie. Nico Collins, not a big impact wide receiver. Then you get rookies. You got Tankdale. You got Xavier Hutchinson. I like Noah Brown, but Noah Brown's probably just a wide receiver three. Then they got a lot of other wide receiver names that I don't think are going to be impactful.

So tight end as well. They signed Dalton Schultz, who, okay, that's good. You needed that. But Brevin Jordan outside after that. It's just going to be a major step down, no matter how you look at it. But CJ's got to start. So we're playing a volume game here with CJ Stroud. So I will go with him as my fourth pick here.

No argument from me. It's the thing where you look at his supporting cast and you don't love it. You look at a little bit of a transition and you're like, okay. It goes back to the first argument we had, right? What was the argument we had with Bryce Young and Anthony Richardson?

If those teams are good, those guys are going to be relevant in this award no matter what. I'm not convinced the Texans are ready to be good. I think they are making progress. I'm not ready for them to be good. And if that's what you believe, then you don't believe CJ Stroud has a top five to six chance to win this award. So I think these odds have the least amount of value. Plus 700. Plus 700. Stroud should probably be closer to plus a thousand. Hey, maybe he lights the world on fire. The Texans are the story of this year's NFL season. And you know, he he's the reason he lifts them up. I think that's a little unfair to expect of him as a rookie going to that offense personally.

So you got back to back now to round out your draft. Who we got? OK, so I'm going to start things off here with Quentin Johnston. OK, all right. I'm so curious as who your two picks are going to be. I mean, I'm not I'm kind of going wide receiver darts here. Johnston is a player that number one, I mean, the chargers with Kellen Moore should be a team that's able to figure out how

to have three wide receivers on the field. So I don't necessarily live in the world where I'm so afraid of Keenan Allen and Mike Williams. And there's no, there's no world, uh, for Quentin Johnson to exist. But I also kind of where it goes to being a dart throw, Keenan Allen and Mike Williams get banged up as most veteran wide receivers do, right? And the Chargers are a team

that whenever one of those guys is banged up, you go like, we have this conversation in fantasy all the time, go pick up blah, blah, blah. Because now he's the number two. And that's a nice role in an offense with Justin Herbert. If one of those guys gets banged up and history tells you they probably will, that is a monster opportunity for Quentin Johnston. And this is a team that they were in 11 personnel,

almost 70% of their offensive snaps last year. I think that goes up with Kellen Moore. So Quentin Johnson is going to be on the field with or without them. It's just hard for me to not take him with one of these two picks. Yeah, no, I could see it. I debated Quentin Johnson,

but I'm going to be honest. I have a couple of wide receivers ranked ahead of him. So I feel like he is on my big board. And the one that I think is maybe a super sleeper for me is still on the board that i might end up selecting with with my fifth pick but it does make sense given the injury history of the guys that are above him on the depth chart and um even though the team is was committed to bringing those guys back keeping the same

receiver core there they drafted johnson for a reason? And I think that they believe that his speed is something that can unlock the offense. So even if the other guys on the depth chart, like you mentioned, are healthy, they're going to get his speed on the field. They're going to want to get him on the field however they can. So I understand it. I wouldn't have picked him there, but I do understand it. Okay, so now this is where, I mean mean you could get creative in this spot i know some people are probably sitting there going we'll just take say flowers he has the same odds basically as

quentin johnson or in the same range as quentin johnston oh don't take my sleeper don't do it are you taking a sleeper player are you taking it i mean i'm taking a long shot but i wouldn't call him a sleeper at all okay okay i don't i don't think you're gonna take my guy oh man no don't no come on don't don't overthink it now try to take my guy don't do that no i'm not i'm not doing that there's there is one other player that i really like here i really really like here and there's a couple there's a couple hiccups that i gotta get over to really take him. Take him in the spot. You can talk it out because you have, this is your last pick.

It is. I don't think you have to hide it. So I'm not going to, okay. So I'll tell you who this was between. Roshan Johnson. Oh, nice. And of course, Dalton Kincaid. Okay. Now, here's what's going against those guys

i ultimately do think the bears get to camp and look at deontay foreman and khalil herber and they're like oh roshan johnson's probably our best running back i i don't know when they ultimately go all into that and if it's oct or November or December then it doesn't matter right like it'd be very hard yeah it'd be very hard for him to win that award yeah and then Justin Fields this is great about Justin Fields but not good for Roshan Johnson for right right he takes away touchdowns in the red zone yeah that's huge, Kincaid tight end rookie production is traditionally terrible. I do think he's in a situation where he's an older, polished prospect. He's a pass catcher, not really a tight end. Right. He plays with Josh Allen. I really do think obviously it's

Stefan Diggs. I think Kincaid is a more consistent number two than gabe davis and see that's if you believe that then i do then this makes sense then this then this one definitely makes sense and it helps gabe davis because gabe davis now becomes a number three that could stretch the field and it's not oh did gabe davis lose us the game this week or win us the game i don't think that's even fair to the projection of gabe dav, but it's a lot to ask of a rookie tight end. It is, but I'll still take Kincaid. He's plus 3,500 at major sports books.

That is telling you that they don't think he has a shot to win this award. Yep. I guarantee I will regret not taking a running back flyer here, but I still am going to believe in Josh Allen. I'm going to believe in Kincaid being their number two, and I'm going to believe in his floor. And I think there's maybe a touchdown floor there that I actually really, really like

where I'll make him my final pick. Okay, all right. So you're going with Kincaid. I saw it, you know, there's two sides of the coin, right? There is either the room's already too established and too crowded. You don't think that he's going to get the volume. i think that kinkade is going to reshape kind of how they do offense you and i have talked about i agree before how little they have run 12 personnel

sets over the last couple of seasons this changes that this gives them a different element in their offense and allows them to go to a different personnel group so i think the versatility there is going to be impactful no matter what i am skeptical of how much that directly correlates to kincaid's individual stats but if you which you can certainly convince yourself of if you believe that kincaid all of a sudden will be their number two option this is a team that's going to play a ton of headliner games throughout the season and if this dude's producing at a decently high level then you're talking about somebody who's going to be in the conversation for offensive rookie of the year.

So I saw it differently, but I do get if you believe the other side of things, why he would be a selection for you. You said that he was plus 3,500, right? Yeah. Yeah. So my last pick is also plus 3,500. Man, I thought I knew where you were going.

Where did you think I was going? He's not though. I thought you were going. Where did you think I was going? He's not, though. I thought you were going with Kendra Miller. No, thought about it. Did think about it. Jamal Williams being there is... I know. It's too much for me to bet on him

to take over any of what Alvin Kamara might miss. My pick here is Rasheed Rice. Yeah. From Kansas City. So Rashe rishi we know from this past year uh understands what it's like to have a large um why yeah target share i was like i was like trying to think of the words and i was like what how am i blanking on this so yeah he is he has a huge target share from his time at SMU. So we know that that's in his blood.

We know that he's used to that. As Kansas City, if they have to ramp up his target share, we know that he will, at least you would think, he has the confidence to be able to handle that and play well. The guys in front of him on the depth chart, the reason why he's plus 3,500 is because Marquez Valdez, Scantling, Gadarius Toney, Sky Moore. Those three guys are healthy.

They're playing over Rishi Rice, right? I mean, like there's not a debate for them. But all three of these guys, there is reason to believe that they might not be out there for a full season. Marquez Valdez-Scantling hasn't played 16. Actually, so he played 17 last year, year but he only started 11 he only played

11 the year before cadarious tony we know his missed time due to injury i mean he's mr hamstring i hope all these guys are healthy for the entire season i'm not saying that like oh i'm betting on these guys to be hurt or anything but if they have an injury history i think that that goes into long shot bets sky more same way he played 16 games last year. Okay, but he only started three, had 22 receptions. Are you really going to ramp it up that much for him? So if any of those guys missed any time at all, where Shee Rice is kind of this different type of player for them, who if you are plugging him in,

you're probably getting some unique production out. And if that's the case, you're probably not going to want that to go away once those guys get healthy again. So I really think that all it takes is a little window of opportunity for Rasheed Rice. And you're betting on him being the best version of himself, right? You and I talked about this after he was drafted or as we were going through our wide receiver rankings that it feels like this is a jump ball contested catch wide receiver that does not have the frame or size or strength to be a jump ball contested catch wide receiver so all of

these things have to be different for him he kind of has to retool how he approaches the game but that does present him with a unique skill set in this kc chiefs offense his quarterbacks patrick holmes okay like the if he's out there and he's right, like he's going to get a ton of their production. They're going to have, they're going to throw for a lot of yards. They're going to score a lot of points. You're going to have a lot of passing touchdowns and they're going to be in every major conversation going through the entire season and making the

post season. Like we believe that they are. If any of those guys in front of them missed time for whatever reason, I think that there is an opportunity for Rishi rice to really make his mark in that offense. And then one that's a high powered one too. So that would be a long shot 3,500 bet that I'd say, hey, throw a little bit of money to it.

I actually like the odds here. I don't think you're crazy at all. I mean, if you're looking for, if we're talking about biggest disparity between like what the player is pre-draft compared to what they could be because of where they went, Rasheed Rice gained the most. I'm trying to really go through it in my head. I don't think I could find a better answer. Yeah.

Honestly. And also to be fair, I was probably lower on him than some. Like I had Rashid Rice in the as it would a fourth round grade. So, yeah. So, yeah, the answer for me would be Rashid Rice. And Rashid Rice's best skill is when the play breaks down, working back to the quarterback and jumping in the air like an acrobat and making a play on the ball. And if you want a quarterback where you get to do that,

you probably pick Patrick Mahomes in NFL history. Like it's right. Yeah. I mean, so yeah, I think, I think you're right. By the way,

I'm looking at the, this past draft and it's like, who gained the most from the landing spot that they had. And there's obviously like great landing spots, but like, but to say Jordan Addison gained the most, well,

people already thought Jordan Addison was good. It's the first round pick. Right. So like that, I don't think that that, that doesn't apply in the same way that we were talking about here. Rasheed Rice, obviously it was picked in the second round,

but I think both you and I had him third, fourth round picks. I can't remember exactly where my grade was on him, but that gets elevated for sure. Cedric Tillman we already liked i like that spot josh downs we already liked his wide receiver so that spot's not the same you know it's a sneaky one but it it would take the reason why it doesn't count is because somebody would have to get hurt in front of him and that's somebody is jared goff hendon hooker like you put hendon hooker in the lions offense with ben johnson oh i was just thinking wide receivers

but i totally agree with you yes like if hendon hooker has to play two years from now when he's fully ready to go because goff gets hurt you're like yeah yeah he'll probably be fine he'll probably be fine if hendon hooker had not, like, let's say the ACL injury never even happened, and the same things unfold, he goes in the second round of the Detroit Lions, like, same stuff. If I don't have to worry about the rehab in the knee at all, I probably would have picked him at the end of this draft.

Right. Just to do it. Right. Because you know, if he had to take over, he has a really good shot to win this award. Yeah, he does.

So guys that we, well, actually, I'll go over the ones that we did pick. There's probably a better way to do it. My five. I got Bryce Young.

I got Jameer Gibbs, Jordan Addison, CJ Stroud, Rasheed Rice. Conor's got B. John Robinson, Anthony Richardson, Jackson's been the Jigba, Quinninn johnson and dalton kincaid guys that we left on the board say flowers yeah that's the big one say i i thought about zach charbonnet i did too i thought about zach

charbonnet as my kind of like flyer hail mary at the very end of the draft but i mean kenneth kenneth's just even if they start to split time a little bit, you would like, Kenneth would have to miss the entire season. Basically. Right. Kenneth would have to miss time for an injury at the very beginning of the year.

And I didn't even want that karma on it. So I didn't, although I do like the spot for Zach Charbonnet, if he were to become the starter for whatever reason, I think that he would. He's become the most perplexing dynasty projection. Yeah. Cause you like him and you like the spot love the offense but they just drafted Walker it was awesome Walker yeah oh man all right well uh let us know whose group that you think was better mine or Connor's

and ultimately who you guys think is going to win offensive rookie of the year and even what the best bet might be because it might be very easy to say oh bjorn robinson sure i'm gonna put my name on him winning offensive rookie of the year but go a little bit further give us a best bet somebody who's not the top dog who you think has a good shot of doing it and explain to us why we love hearing from you you can do so on the youtube channel uh youtube.com backslash nfl at nfl stock exchange get in the comments and like in the video subscribe into the channel that's the best way to You can do so on the YouTube channel, youtube.com backslash NFL at NFL stock exchange, getting in the comments and liking the video, subscribing to the channel.

That's the best way to keep up with what we're doing and the conversations that we're going to be having through these next episodes, of course, and for summer scouting as well. If you're listening on audio only, and if you don't have a YouTube account at Tampa Bay tray at Connor J. Rogers, both on Twitter and Instagram, that's where you can hit us up and get in on the conversation there too. Connor, do you have anything else before we get out of here?

I think that's summed it up pretty well. This is always a fun exercise. If you're listening and wondering defensive rookie of the year version of this will be right around the corner. You won't have to wait a full week. We're going to knock that out in the same week. So these are pretty cohesive. Like you keep hitting Trevor. We are kind of knocking down the door summer scouting will

be here before everyone knows it i'm so excited man i'm so excited i've been like kind of getting the itch like sometimes at night when i like want to wind down i end up reading um there's been a couple times where instead of like just sitting in bed with the book i'm like do i grab the ipad like do i do it? But once you go down that road, there's no going back. No, no. I need to finish the book I'm reading, and then I'm taking the plunge, and there's no going back.

There will be no going back. We got a couple more episodes before we get to that point. Connor's obviously got a book to finish. But like he said. Project Hail Mary. Phenomenal. Phenomenal. Love the shout-out.

Love the shout-out. We got one more episode for youomenal. Love the shout out. Love the shout out. We got one more episode for you guys later this week. It is the second part of this. We'll be drafting defensive rookie of the year candidates. I'm Trevor Sycamore. That is Connor Rogers. Until then, thank you guys so much for watching and listening to the NFL Stock Exchange Podcast.

We'll see you next time. Thank you.