NFL Stock Exchange: An NFL Draft Podcast - 178. 2024 NFL Draft Summer Scouting: Quarterbacks

Episode Date: June 6, 2023

Hosts Trevor Sikkema and Connor Rogers kick off their Summer Scouting Series with the quarterback position. The two talk about the names to know for the potential 2024 class, where they stand heading into the 2023 college football season, and give you their Top 5 pre-season rankings for the position.

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It's awesome. Sign up now at youtube.com slash BS, device and content restrictions apply. Local and national games on YouTube TV. NFL Sunday ticket for out-of-market games excludes digital-only games. Welcome to the NFL Stock Exchange podcast. In this episode, it is time to break into summer scouting with the quarterback position. This is one of our favorite series that we do all year long. We know that you guys love it as well. It is a first look at the potential quarterback class for the 2024 NFL draft. We're going to have our top fives as well as plenty of

other quarterbacks in a really deep list that we're going to talk to you about their strengths, their weaknesses, their ceilings, what we could see from them in 2023 and beyond. I'm Trevor Sycamore. With me as always is Connor Rogers. Let's ring the bell. Welcome to the opening bell of the NFL Stock Exchange podcast. I'm Trevor Sikama. That is Connor Rogers joining you guys to once again kick off everybody's favorite series the entire year summer scouting baby it is finally finally here when i say that i mean like the draft was a month and a half ago but you guys have already been clamoring for it but i guess we have as well connor i'm very excited today my man we're starting things off of course at the very top like we have to with the quarterback position and over

the next couple of months throughout the summer we're going to be going through our top fives for every position, ultimately leading to a show big board as we enter the 2023 college football season. So this is where it all begins, my friend. I'm very excited. How are you doing today? I'm good, man. I'm pumped. I appreciate the comment section since the draft ended has been all about summer scouting, which is a really nice trend to see.

I feel like when we did this last year, like obviously it was the first year we were doing it, and everybody was like, oh, cool. And now that we've done it for a year, it's nice to see excitement leading up to it. Real sickos, honestly, real, real sicko stuff. I had an embarrassing moment. I was doing this show for SMY.

It's called Mets Off Day. When the Mets are off, they do the show. And they end the show asking everybody, with the Mets not on tonight, what are you going to do with your day off? And I was like, you might not believe this, but I am watching the quarterbacks for the 2024 NFL draft. So here we are, man. It's exciting. You and I were texting throughout this process how much volume there is yeah this is I mean I have so many guys in my docket quarterback and I'm I'm excited to continue this process throughout the whole summer but today we are going to really go deep into the headliners as well yeah you know we we had this conversation a couple of weeks ago um especially right before the 2023 NFL draft when we were talking about

these quarterbacks and like, oh, okay, like who's going to be QB one, who should be QB one, how high should all these guys go? And we had the grass is greener conversation because it always seems like we're looking to the next draft class and saying, yeah, but next year, yeah, but next year. And we know that that doesn't always produce the fruits that you think it's going to a year out from a draft class but getting into this exercise you and i where we can't get to all of these quarterbacks we do have essentially a watch list that we create and we go okay i'm gonna try to watch before the summer scouting episode i'm gonna try to watch as many of these guys as possible but

you know i think in years past my watch list has been 12 guys. Right. I mean, it's about 12 guys because you don't know who's going to come out of nowhere. And honestly, like getting to 12, you're probably talking about quarterbacks that maybe aren't even going to get drafted anyways. I'm at an easy 20 quarterbacks in this class on the watch list and i got full reports on nine of these guys we're gonna rank them five to one throughout this episode so you guys will get to hear that and our thoughts on some of the players who did not make the top five so we'll dig into as many notes and thoughts as we possibly can but just to your point this group seems

extremely deep we could have a i actually should have looked this up before the show. And as I'm going to stop talking here in a second, I'm curious how many quarterbacks have been drafted over the last couple of drafts, because I wonder if this class coming up is going to break any sort of records. Cause there's just a lot of names to know this year. It's a great question. And the number is smaller than you really think. I mean, this year there was 14 quarterbacks taken, which is a lot.

The year before that, there was nine. The year before that, there was 10. The year before that in 2020, there was 13. So this hovers typically from eight to 13, I would say. Maybe 15 in a big year, which was ironically 2016. There was 15 quarterbacks drafted. And you're right. This this year it just feels different it's weird a lot of guys have gone back to school to develop probably because if you think about it

if you're a quarterback of a prominent college franchise you're making a lot of money off the nil right great for you yes like you're the face of that college football team so you're making a lot of money the the combination of nil and we still have guys who have the covid year eligibility yep that is producing a massive quarterback class and it's kind of coming to a head because there's not a ton of quarterbacks who I think after this class would realistically use their COVID eligibility. We're kind of running out of those players. This is the last year where I think the pool is going to be huge of guys who are notable names who were maybe underclass and who we thought were going to get drafted, maybe didn't play as well, have that extra year to figure

things out. And obviously because of NIL, it's sort of an easy decision depending on how much money you're making. If you're not guaranteed to be a first or second round pick, a lot of these guys are just like, okay, I'll go back. And if I get better, I get better. You look at jumps like what Anthony Richardson was able to make, right? One year makes all the difference in the world. The guy goes number four overall.

Joe Burrow is obviously the golden child for one year can make all the difference he goes number one overall he improves so much all that good stuff so not to say that there's a joe burrow in this class but i think that a lot of quarterbacks to your point are having that conversation with their brain trust of people and as we have seen with the evidence of this class a lot of them have landed on hey i'll come back an extra year i'll try to figure it out and we'll see what our draft grade can be the following year it's exactly right and on top of it the portal is such a big factor the way i structure my doc it goes first name last name position school and the way i write in the cells the school i put for example if you're

talking about somebody like caleb williams it would be usc and then parentheses i put from where they transferred from if they transferred and i find myself trevor with the quarterbacks it feels like all these guys have had at least two stops that's what's insane about it so it's very very interesting to see um this cycle like you said it's coming to a head you have a lot of guys that have been in school there are plenty of guys that this is their sixth year of college football fifth fifth year of college football. I mean, yeah, they're going to be 24 year old rookies. And that's not that's not uncommon at all with this group. So, yeah, it's there's a ton of volume in this group.

It'll be interesting to see who can play themselves, of course, into being draftable or move a day in the draft. And the top five is very intriguing of course why everyone's here yes we can do the grass is greener but there's expected star talent in this quarterback class and it has people really really excited and i'm not gonna lie it was it was a joy watching the top of this class because i try to detach myself from the hype i really really did because hype is going to happen with at least one quarter quarterback prospect going into every single summer. And I think a lot of it is justified. I'll say that off the top. So this was, this group has volume. It has star talent at the top and we are in for a very busy year, my friend. Yeah. So, I mean, we'll definitely, we'll, we'll, we'll be jumping into

this pretty quickly. We'll, we'll start off with our number five if you guys were here last year for summer scouting you know how this goes we'll start at five and we'll keep the suspense up to who's going to be number one for us throughout summer scouting and so that's how it's going to start but uh i i did want to mention this because a lot of people ask us throughout the year whether it's during the summer or during the season or even like during draft time when we know we have a lot of extra eyes and ears who are watching and listening to the show. Some people are like, Hey, how do you get to this process? And they always love when we kind of peel back the curtain a little bit on how you and I evaluate these guys. And my scouting process, my kind of like core

process, it changes a little bit every year. Like some years I'm making little tweaks to how I'm evaluating guys, whether it's, you know, the weight of the score or things that I take into account more than I did previous seasons and just always learning along the way. This year, I am doing something different when it comes to my quarterback rankings. And I think I'm going to try to take this into other positions as well. With there being so many different ways to

win I'm trying to make sure that I have a different grading scale slightly different grading scale for like what a skill set might be of a person or of a player of a especially a quarterback and so I actually have them divided up this year into dual threat quarterbacks and pocket quarterbacks so i have a little bit of a different scale for each of these two molds of quarterbacks so because you know like field mobility for example is one area that i will grade and i'll give a score to and i'll give analysis to. But if you're a dual threat player, your field ability will matter more and should matter more into who you are and what you can do on the field than a guy who's coming from the pocket. And this might come as

a duh, but for the first time, I'm really making different scales to see how that kind of comes out. So throughout this episode, you're going to hear me mention whether I had this guy labeled as a dual threat and he was going through kind of that dual threat analysis or he was more of a pocket guy. And that's not to say that they might not change. Maybe I thought a guy was a little bit more mobile. He's more of a pocket guy, vice versa throughout the year.

But just to give people, again, a little bit of a, look back into the kitchen, see how things are made, if you will. That's something that I'm doing a little bit different this year back into the kitchen see how things are made if you will that's something that i'm doing a little bit different this year and as i talk through it now you guys kind of understand it and you get to hear that a little bit better no i think it's great and i think it matters a lot because we've just seen the game change so much and we've seen the prospect trajectory change so much i don't want it didn't start with Lamar Jackson, but for me, with scouting, I feel like Lamar was a good example of somebody who, what he said as elite

of a runner at the position as you will ever see. And I mean, I'm literally counting like Michael Vick in that conversation. That's Lamar at the position. And there was a lot of tools as a thrower. And you knew that if he went into an offense and even really without going into an offense, because when the play breaks down, his running is really special to not just designed runs that he would still be an effective player, you know, from the position while he continued to maximize those tools or grow those tools as a thrower. And, you know, we've seen Jalen Hurts go through that trajectory in a little bit of a different way. A lot of people are,

have all eyes on Anthony Richardson to go through that trajectory in a little bit of a different way a lot of people are have all eyes on anthony richardson to go through that kind of uh situation we've seen justin fields capitalize on his running while he tries to develop his passing so it matters a lot trevor because you can't just be you can't just sit there and overlook something like that in a prospect when the bottom line is will it score points will it affect the game will it help an offense when the answer is often yes? Yep. So I wanted to, I don't know, play a little bit of a game with you as I kind of introduce something that I know that you and I are going to talk about a lot because we have the PFF Ultimate Tool. And you guys out there that have a PFF subscription, you can see something called adjusted completion

percentage as well. So that's a stat that connor and i like to reference a lot as we talk about quarterback play because accuracy one of the most important traits there is for a quarterback but completion percentage itself isn't really a good representation exactly of what the trade of accuracy is. Now, adjusted completion percentage, which takes into account drops and does not penalize quarterbacks for drops when they throw a good, accurate pass, that is something that's a little bit better. Of course, you got to make sure that you're watching the film anyways.

But I wrote these down to give some people some context as we went through things, because I know they're going to hear us talk about adjusted completion percentage a lot in this episode. So I went out there and I found through the top 25 quarterbacks in the NFL, what the mean, so the middle number of adjusted completion percentage is, and what that is from a clean pocket, and then what it is when they are pressured as well. Just so you guys have a reference point of when we mention what a quarterback's adjusted completion percentage is, you go, okay, then that's kind of like NFL medium. Like he's completing the ball where he should or it's way less, way more. The mean for adjusted completion percentage of the top 25 quarterbacks in the NFL since 2013 is 73.5%. So keep that number in your

head as you hear us reference what these guys' adjusted completion percentage is. In the NFL, the middle number is 73.5. With pressure, it goes down, you would expect, but to 63.6. So keep that in mind as well. If you hear guys like oh you know these are his numbers under pressure and it's a completion percentage like way in the 50s low 50s whatever it is that's not good that means that they're not really doing what they need to do under pressure i here's i don't know if i should all right we're gonna make a little bit of a game out of this, I guess. Connor, who do you think in the NFL since 2013, and this is cumulative, who do you think is the highest adjusted completion percentage

of any quarterback since 2013? So it's over the last 10 years. Think of all the best quarterbacks in the NFL. Still playing or anyone? It can be anybody because these are guys who could have retired recently, but I, the sample size is still big. So it's not like they would have retired in like 2015 or something. I wonder if it's, there's like a trick element to this.

Cause off the top of my head, you just think to answer Tom Brady or Drew Brees. It's it's Drew Brees. Okay. It's true. Yeah. I wasn't, I wasn't pulling a fast one on you. I was like, it has to be, I think. Especially that offense, the way it was run. Especially at the end there where everything was like a pass to Alvin Kamara. Correct.

Just joking around, but not really. Drew Brees, 78.2% was his adjusted completion percentage. So almost five whole points above what the middle of the nfl was i don't think you're gonna get the low just because it could be anybody oh there's no minimum like there there is like it's it's four quarterbacks that have graded out as the a top 25 passer in passing grade since 2013 right right it's carson palmer oh i would not have i wouldn't have got that if you gave me 10 tries so carson palmer had a cumulative adjusting completion percentage score of 69.0 so nice but i had to do it. And then the last two,

the low, when it comes to pressure for guys in the top 25 is actually Josh Allen at 57.8%. So he has the lowest adjusted completion percentage when pressured of the top 25 quarterbacks since 2013. And the highest with pressure, it's not drew breeze although drew breeze is number two it's actually teddy bridgewater and teddy bridgewater teddy

bridgewater's sample size was high enough to where i couldn't just throw it out and just give it to drew breeze again no no people forget teddy has played a lot of games. He's an assassin between years. Something like that. All right. Anyways, I just wanted to throw those out there because I know that we're going to talk about adjusted completion percentage. And I know people often like context with numbers. They go like, okay, well, what does this mean to me? Like, what does this number mean to me?

No, it's important. So I just wanted to throw that out there to everybody. Remember, the mean for top 25 quarterbacks in the nfl for the last 10 years when it comes to adjust completion percentage 73.5 and uh when you add pressure into there it goes down to 63.6 so that's the context as we kind of move forward here but connor i've done enough talking here at the beginning of this podcast please take it away my friend who is your number five quarterback for summer scouting in the 2024 cycle man i went really not back and forth but i looked at this spot and i said out of all the top fives we've done of rankings going back to last

year summer scouting all those and really just in general this to me was the classic like man you can make an argument for a lot of players in this spot. I mean, a lot of players. So what I did was, at number five, I went with a guy that has the tools to make a massive, massive jump this year as a prospect. But also, as we stand here today, is the type of player that we could be summer scouting again next year very, very easily. And talking about warts that we saw in the 2022 tape popping back up in 2023.

And that player is Quinn Ewers. Oh, you did put Ewers in five. At Texas. And listen, I'm'm gonna be honest there's more things listed on the cons than the pros with quinn ewers i want to be honest here i even texted you a gif of toad like shaking out of control saying this is what it was like watching quinn ewers dude like i but i mean there's a little line in the notes that's not pros or cons. That's just massive peaks and valleys in terms of play on tape. I mean, seriously, when you watch Quinn Ewers.

But, with that being said, let's start with the surface level of Mr. Quinn Ewers, the current quarterback of Texas. Ranked number one nationally overall by 247 sports, Sports Rivals you know this was a huge recruit a huge huge recruit and he obviously transferred from Ohio State he enrolled early transferred from Ohio State to Texas and as a redshirt freshman last year he started so it's a young dude this is a really really young dude I want to be fair to him. Now let's get into the actual player here in Quinn Ewers. The first thing I noticed when I turned on the tape, Trevor, he's got to add mass and he's a young dude and it's going to happen, but he's, he needs to pack on some weight to that frame. And I know he got hurt last year as well, and he's a young player. So he'll continue to do that but high level arm talent

despite consistently throwing the ball with a side armor release he is not a drop back over the top conventional passer he really looks like somebody that he kind of just handed a football to and you never said anything and you're like like, hey, try throwing this thing. Like, when you're throwing a Nerf ball around on the beach, it's kind of how Quinn Ewers plays quarterback. Yep. And it's really freaking weird, because as much as you look at it and you go, ah, I don't like this,

he makes some incredible throws while doing that. And he also misses a lot of throws. He is not, out of the top five quarterbacks I have on the list. He is by far the least accurate of the top five. And that's where he needs to make a big jump. I wrote vertical touch, especially against Alabama was really impressive. The Bama game is the Bama game is nice, man. I remember watching it live and I was like, God damn Quinn Ewers is here already yeah and then he got her and all that and then i went back and watched the tape obviously for

this exercise and i was like it was maybe even better than i remembered yeah i was like some of the throws he's just dropping in the lap here are really really impressive um he will hang in and get killed to make throws i mean there, there's times where I'm like, no, like you like kind of like, you know, shiver a little bit. You're like, I don't want you to hang in that long. Cause you know, he's going to get destroyed to make a throw. He is tough as hell. The cons, his accuracy on intermediate and deep middle of the field throws is just not consistent at all. Whole airmail passes, whole sale passes. And it's really goes back to, he doesn't play with consistent mechanics.

He's the sidearm thrower. The base isn't always present. He doesn't rotate his base with his shoulders. He just likes to be all arm sometimes. And honestly, I don't, when his base is very consistent and everything's tied together, he still misses throws sometimes because of the sidearm throws.

It's kind of like a, a pitcher with a weird delivery. It's so odd. He did. I wrote, he does not consistently use his base to drive throws and he's still getting comfortable and going through the growing pains as the lead general of his offense.

And what I mean by that is you watch some of these other guys that have been playing much longer than him at the college level, and things are in rhythm. It feels like they understand protection pre-snap. Everything's just kind of humming. With Quinn Ewers, you saw a lot of young player growing pains last year that are going to have to take a leap. And he's number five for me because I think they can,

and I think he has a lot of talent. He's also number five for me that could fall off a cliff in terms of prospect profile and not be the one of the first five quarterbacks taken next year and goes back to school because there are still a lot of important things of playing the position that he hasn't grasped yet. So young player, love the talent. Think he could make a jump. Not holding my breath, definitely have some concerns, but a wild rollercoaster of a watch with some jaw-dropping throws. There's just no way to deny that.

Yeah, the Toad gift that you used of him freaking out was appropriate when watching Quinn Harris. There's no doubt about it. And so I have him at six, so he's right outside my top five, and we did see him pretty similarly. I'll get to my notes in a second. But something I wanted to do for summer scouting is something that I did. I saved this more towards the end of the scouting cycle last year. But I figured, you know what, let me just throw it in for summer scouting because I

think it'll be it'll be a good reference point for the people and also for my notes as well. So when I looked up height and weight for these guys, I also went and looked up if they were to measure in at the combine at that weight, what would the percentile be? And so that kind of gives a little bit of context to where these guys are. And you mentioned the weight profile. That is something that you need to know about Quinn Ewers. Texas has him listed six foot two which is in the 32nd percentile so that's not super tall for the position 205 pounds is what they have him listed at that's seventh percentile so he's light he he is light he's shorter and he's a little bit

lighter now you would think that that means that he's probably got a little bit of physical arm talent deficiencies. God, no, that's not the case. This dude, I don't know if I've ever seen a passer like Quinn Ewers. And I'm not pretending to have seen every passer in the world and know all of these guys. But for him to generate the power that he does in his arm without having good lower body mechanics and without even following through on his throw to where he can get his full core involved in the, in, in torquing the ball. It's, it's, it's incredible. You mentioned it's kind of like a specialty pitcher in baseball. And I thought about that as well because i'm i i'm sitting here in my notes and i'm like man because okay so if everybody goes

out there and watches them you'll notice and if you're watching this on youtube you can see me do it when he has the ball he has the ball up here and he it he flicks it yes he stays up when you throw the ball typical quarterback mechanics when you're teaching these guys to throw the ball is you're going across the body you're getting your core involved so you can get more torque more spin right your hips are involved your lower body then you get to generate power from your feet all the way up and you are following through and normally that thumb goes down and you're supposed to the visual is put that thumb in the opposite pocket. Have your arm go all the way across the body and that will be a consistent spiral, consistent power that you're getting on it. And Quinn Ewers, when he throws the ball, he throws it, not only does he throw it sidearm, but he keeps his arm up.

He doesn't, like it doesn't even go down across his body. It's like he's just keeping his arm up to doesn't like it doesn't even go down across his body it's like he's just keeping his arm up to flick it and that specialty pitcher thing i try to convince myself like all right well maybe he just throws kind of funny maybe it's not this big negative but i think that it is because he misses way too often way too often and i i wrote down a couple of key pff stats that we have from ultimate for each of these guys ewers adjusted completion percentage remember guys 73.5 is what you're supposed to shoot for it's the middle of good starting ability in the nfl he's at 67.5 that is significantly lower than where he needs to be. And when pressured, it goes down to 51.

Because when his mechanics are clean, they're not great. And they're not consistent. When he's off platform, they're worse. So all of that goes into him having a high turnover-worthy play rate as well. And there's just so many things that he is not able to build upon with his talent because his consistency is not there so we did see him pretty similarly um i i do like yours but to your point he is way too volatile right now and i don't know how much texas is going to try to change his throwing motion at this point i don't know i i mean he is so like that would be such a change at this point

i i don't think you can but you but you have to right i don't know he's he does not have the consistency to lead that team right now. So unless he becomes a total anomaly of this is my throwing motion, and somehow I'm going to get way more accurate with it. I don't know, man. I don't know. It's fascinating. I don't know if they'll toy with it because of some of the raw ability and being afraid to lose it. It's a I don't know.

I would love to know, honestly, what they're thinking, what Quinn is thinking, because Quinn has been a stud. What is whole football life? So it's like, yeah, I mean, so he's looking at like, well, it's hard for an athlete that's always been great to be told to completely reinvent themselves. Yeah. And he was pretty good last year. Like, let's not talk about him like he was just a bum no he was that's the tough part that bama that one quarter in that bama game was his best but he still had good moments after that where he played good football when he came back from the injury um and he was all good to go because he sprained his non-throwing shoulder clavicle yes that's

what happened that's why he missed some time. That's why he got knocked out of that Alabama game. So that was the injury that he went through. It shouldn't be something that really hinders him moving forward. Yeah, I mean, he had, I believe it was a top 30 big-time throw percentage in all the FBS last year. So this dude will give his wide receivers a chance. That's something that you absolutely love about him.

There was a play. Oh, what game was it? Hold on. I got to check what games I watched. I did. I don't know how you did this. I tried to do a lot of high low when watching this. I would start with either a really bad game or a really good game,

then flip it and then get back to the middle ground. We did the exact same thing. I tried to watch at least three games of all these guys, the highest graded passing grade performance, the lowest passing grade performance. And then I found one in the middle that I was like, all right. Right. Exactly. So I think it was the Washington game where one of his receivers is.

Yeah. Yes. One of his receivers is running a nine route. So he's just going vertical up the sideline. His wide receiver was at least three yards from still even being even with the corner. And he loads up and he's like, nope, we're taking this chance, baby. He just licks it and lets it fly. And he's fun, man. He's fun, but he we're taking this chance, baby. He just licks it and lets it fly. And he's fun, man. He's fun, but he's, I don't know. He too reckless for me to.

Oh, he's a wild man. He's a wild man. I need to come up with a nickname like from Red Dead for him. I don't know who it's going to be, but I'll find something. I'm excited to watch him this year because I just don't know what's going to happen. He's either going to light the world on fire and everybody's going to be like, damn, we got another first round quarterback in here, or it's going to be Spencer Rattler ish where you're like, honestly, like that's what I was like. Ah, that's what it feels like. It feels like he could either go from,

it feels like he could either like become what the best thought process of will levis was right because will levis all tools all arm like you're betting on the arm all that kinds of stuff so it's it's either like that will levis type of first round conversation based off of arm talent and traits or you're looking at another spencer rattler situation where i mean let's face it too man if he goes to spencer rattler route he's transferring to his third school because arch manning's in texas now so they're not going to sit here and and let arch manning burn years away on the bench arch manning ain't gonna let them burn years away on the bench yeah well that's kind of what i'm saying is it's like this is this if if you ask me this is quinier's last year at texas whether he's going to the nfl or whether he's playing

somewhere else this is his last year playing for texas so we'll see you got a five so i have florida state quarterback jordan travis number six for me at number five so i i figured that we probably just flip-flopped these guys. And we'll get into why that was the case. I have a feeling we're going to see these guys similar anyway. So Jordan Travis, redshirt senior for Florida State, listed at 6'1", 212 pounds. 6'1 is the 14th percentile, and 212 pounds would be the 19th percentile. So a smaller statured quarterback no doubt about it i've got him in the dual threat category so i had him going through the um

dual threats production score production key that i have for these guys as i'm kind of grading out these players just a three-star quarterback from west palm beach florida as a recruit eventually committed to louisville uh i think you picked Louisville over Baylor, if I do remember correctly. That's correct, yep. Played only one season at Louisville before transferring over to Florida State. He picked Florida State over a myriad of Florida schools. UCF was on here, USF was on here, FAU was on here. And so he just ended up wanting to play for florida state and it's been a great decision for him um i've some of the pff stats that i have here listed for him the dual threat label definitely something that you got to pay attention to with him because 0.42 missed tackles forced per attempt

the fourth best mark of any quarterback in the fBS last season. So that is essentially how many times do you force a missed tackle per carry that you have? 0.42 to give you guys reference. Javante Williams had one of the highest scores that we've ever had. And he was at like 0.44. I think Bijan Robinson was like 0.42. So I'm not saying that this guy's like as good as B. John Robinson on the backfield, but it just shows you what type of a playmaker he is once he gets out of the backfield and he tucks to run.

But he's not just a runner either. He also takes care of the ball really, really well. He was top 15 in both big time throw percentage and turnover worthy play percentage. So he had a very high big time throw rate and a very low turnover worthy play rate. He was just so smart with the football, took his chances when the chances were there. And you absolutely love to see that. I think that it is worth noting that there was a massive gap in adjusted completion percentage

when he was pressured versus when he was clean. When he was clean, it was a 76.7%, which was higher than that mean that we mentioned before. When he was pressured, it went all the way down to 58.4. And I think that there are reasons to that once you get into the tape and you kind of look at his traits. I already mentioned, I think that he's a great ball carrier when he has to tuck in a run, when he uses RPOs, when he's scrambling, whether it's quarterback design plays or non-design plays, he's really good. He's very fluid. He likes to get out past the tackles and he likes to get those yards after contact and a lot of yards on the ground when he's kind of scrambling like that i think the mechanics are great for him man and he's got

great lower body mechanics got great upper body mechanics now there are times when he gets away from him and that's where i usher in maybe some of the negatives with him. And that is he's just small. He's a small quarterback. And a lot of the ways that you're going to have to kind of convince yourself that you liked Bryce Young and overcoming a lot of the size issues that you had there, it's going to be similar types of conversations with Jordan Travis, I think, because you notice that the smaller stature, he doesn't have the same sort of natural zip on passes

when it's coming off of his wrist, when it comes to velocity and distance, honestly. He has to put his full body into throws to get it there on time and pace, whether it's intermediate or deep. So he's putting his full body into throws no matter what. I think that that's sometimes when his mechanics can get bad is when he like leaves his feet and he just totally has to just try to turn his whole body as fast as possible to fire that football in there because he just doesn't have

that natural arm strength he's just not that big of a dude so he's super smart between the ears i think he's really accurate especially when things are pretty clean. He's got a great knack for when to take a chance, when not to take a chance. I think he reads defenses super well, had an elite PFF passing grade last year. A lot of clean mechanics. Florida State raves about this dude as a leader, as their quarterback. They absolutely love him. He gives you that plus ability as a ball carrier, but there are just some physical limitations with him that I think might get in the way from him really being a prospect that you just fall in love with when you watch him on tape. So that's kind of what I thought about Jordan Travis as my number five guy. I thought the same thing. And I felt like his floor, I would have been really comfortable

having him at number five. And instead I just swung for the fences with the ceiling guy in Quinn, Quinn Ewers. He was interesting. Watch for me. He was better than I expected. They have a very, very good supporting cast there at Florida state. That offense this year is going to be excellent. I think with the playmakers that he has,

he is every bit of a playmaker in terms of he can run around. He has good vision as a runner that stood out to me. Yes. I agree with you, Trevor, that he's going to be a bit of a guy that has to kind of rely on placement and off-speed throwing rather than I'm going to drop back and throw a howitzer 50 yards

down the field every single time. So I'm with you all the way and glad you gave him a shout out at five. Number four for me, and I'm really fascinated if we end up just running the table four to one exactly the same. Number four for me is another surprise in terms of what this player has been able to turn himself into. And that is Bo Nix at Oregon. Bo Nix was somebody that when I watched him at Auburn, I did not see the makings of a guy that will be a pro quarterback prospect or a significant one, maybe somebody at the end of day three in this era of guys that are, you know, maybe shorter and stockier and can give you a little bit of playmaking, but are long-term third string

quarterbacks. And when you turn on Bo Nix's tape and what he's been able to become at Oregon, I think he is somebody that understands how to command an offense now. And there's a couple of things with him, right? He finishes 2022 with almost 3,600 passing yards, 29 touchdowns, seven interceptions, only 14 big time throws, eight turnover worthy plays. He added over 500 yards rushing and 14 rushing touchdowns. He obviously had the three years of starting at Auburn for taking over as the starter at Oregon in 2022 and who went back to school to start this year. He's got a muscular frame built to take on contact when necessary. Like this is somebody that clearly is a weight room warrior. He understands that he's going to get hit. He's okay with getting hit. He'll get

tough yards for you. He will try to extend plays. Once again, very in command of the offense that he runs. He has no issue nickel and diming defenses if he sees free yards pre-snap. And it's not the prettiest thing to watch on film. I mean, when you turn on Bo Nix's tape, there's going to be a lot of dropbacks that are a lot of screens or a lot of short throws or a lot of catch and run throws or looking for advantageous matchups. He's not going to drop back a million times and just try to throw the ball 60 yards downfield all the time. But while it's a big time pro is that he sees things before the snap and

understands how to, you know, take advantage of the defense. I wrote puts the right amount of touch and air under his deep throws, uh, delivers the ball with different arm angles to capitalize on throwing lanes. When he has to only sacked six times in 2022 he understands how to get the ball out against pressure and you watch a lot of these young quarterbacks they want to hold the ball and run around for 20 seconds and make a play and Bo Nix and that's not what goes on in the pros it does not work in the pros unless you're Patrick Mahomes sorry or Josh Allen sorry so Bo Nix is everything against that he understands how to get the ball out. Cons, this was an interesting nugget I wrote down. 96 of his completions and 619 of those passing yards from 2022

were from throws behind the line of scrimmage. I didn't think he was asked to challenge the intermediate outside the numbers and vertically as much as a lot of the other quarterback prospects. They will throw a million screens, and they're content with that. I know a lot of people like Bo Nix's arm going back to Auburn. prospects, they will throw a million screens and they're content with that. I didn't, I don't know how people like Bo Nix's arm going back to Auburn. I didn't see an arm that consistently will challenge outside the numbers with high velocity and they don't run an offense asking him to do

that. So I'd be kind of curious to actually, he's somebody I would like to see throw in person and be like, oh, it's, he could do that. No problem problem they just don't ask him to do it so I was impressed with Bo Nix I don't think he has an insane ceiling as an NFL quarterback but I really really like his floor and the player he's developed himself into um and he's a little bit different than a lot of the quarterbacks that we get to watch on tape at this stage of their careers because he's really really started to dive into some polish and break bad habits of a reckless player he once was. I will respond with my Bo Nix thoughts a little bit later in the show. When I go over him.

Because I do have him a little bit higher. So the player that I have at number four is Michael Penix Jr. from Washington. My guy. number four is michael pennix jr from washington my guy uh i have been i know you absolutely you you were talking about michael pennix jr a ton last year um i was talking about him when he was in the indiana when he was breaking out the one year after he came out from the acl injury i was like oh okay like he had his bad injury luck and shoot man i i wish that would have been the case but now he's at washington played with the Huskies last year. He is a redshirt senior going into his sixth year of eligibility.

And look, for as much as he has missed a lot of time due to injury, man, his game is aging well. He's still playing so well when he is out there on the field. Measures in, according to Washington, of course. 6'3", 216 pounds. 6'3 would be in the 54th percentile, so it's above 50%. That's what you like to see. 216 pounds would be the 31st percentile there for Michael Penix Jr.

He's from Tampa, Florida. Shout out, Tampa. Was a three-star prospect. How do you have number four? Jesus, man. You're right. I forgot. What I meant to say is Michael Penix Jr., number one Tampa Bay legend. Shout out Tampa. Was a three-star prospect. Yeah, how do you have number four? Jesus, man. You're right. I forgot.

What I meant to say is Michael Penix Jr., number one, Tampa Bay legend. He committed to play at Indiana, and he played at Indiana for a couple of seasons. But this is kind of his journey for anybody that doesn't know Michael Penix Jr. He's a true freshman in 2018 at Indiana. Penix played in three games, suffered a torn ACL, and was redshirted. Then he was named the starter the following season in 2019, but he played only six games due to a sternoclavicular joint. Basically, it is the clavicle injury, clavicle where it connects to the sternum.

So he had a missed time for that as well. 2019, returned to Indiana as a starter again, but in 2020, late in the season, he tore his ACL for a second time. Then he ended up transferring to Washington where he was able to start last season, but he even suffered a shoulder injury in 2021. So there's four seasons in which this guy has missed time due to injury, two of them ACL injuries, one of them a clavicle injury, and the other one an AC joint injury. two shoulder injuries or i guess two upper body injuries i should say and then two acl tears that is not good here is the good when this guy's out there on the field he looks like he could be an nfl quarterback man powerful compact throwing

motion that's a little bit to the outside i mean there are times when he's looping it a little it's not as high and tight and square around the shoulder as you would want, but even a little bit of that side arm motion kind of just goes into his style and it allows him to get a lot of torque on the ball. I think he's got really good arm strength because of it. Put some good zip on passes. I think he's got adequate arm strength for the NFL level. Really enjoy how this guy navigates the pocket. I think the feet are light. They're always moving when pressure's coming from his left or his right. He is clearly and comfortably navigating those, but not in a way where you mentioned this about college quarterbacks.

A lot of guys like to sit back in the pocket and just run around for 20 seconds. Well, it's because a lot of quarterbacks at the college level, they're not super confident stepping up in the pocket, still ready in a thrower stance scanning the field going through the progressions Michael Penix is he is that kind of a player he's not afraid to step up into the pocket find that space in between the tackles and still keep his eyes down the field to throw the ball also is a really good understanding of eye manipulation when I watch his games especially from the end zone angle of the all 22 you can can see he's recognizing, like you mentioned with Bo Nix a little bit,

he's recognizing things in the pre-snap. He sees where the safeties are aligned and he goes, okay, I'm eventually going to the left. Let's keep that safety over to the right. And he just had a very good feel for that. And I noticed him really manipulate the defenses a handful of times. Something that I felt like was a kind of a drawback for him. I felt like the touch portion of his game when it came to deep balls,

sometimes it's beautiful, but not always. He just didn't consistently have that touch that you wanted to see for intermediate and deep passes. I wonder if the throwing motion has to do with the consistency of that ball placement, intermediate and deep. So i made sure to um to note that as well i think his hips and this is another part of his throwing mechanics that might be able to get fixed i think his hips are a little bit too wide a little bit too open when he is throwing because it's almost like he's compensating right if you think about it in a straight line if a guy

is throwing the ball like this he's got his feet pointed exactly where he wants to go. The ball is coming over the shoulder and through. It's basically, it's not an exact straight line, but it's very parallel. All the motion is completely parallel going to the target that way. Sometimes his throw gets released a little bit further out. And I think that he kind of compensates for it by keeping his hips a little bit more open.

So the feet are a little wider, the throwing motion's a little bit wider, and that could make for a more comfortable throw for him, but it also might be hurting him with some ball placement. So I think that that's something that I noticed from him. I wonder if that's stylistically or if that's something we're going to see really improve this year if he kind of works on honing in on that accuracy and if that's a reason why we think that that might be the case another good on him only a 1.2 turnover worthy play percentage this guy did not put the ball in harm's way very often he would like i said he was smart in pre-snap he was smart post-snap

he navigated pressure super well which i was very very impressed with and i think that he has got an nfl alarm so look i i know that teams are gonna look at this guy and he's just a walking medical red flag right you're gonna have a lot of teams in the nfl who go we're not touching him anyways doesn't really matter he's got two acl tears he's got shoulder injuries all that good stuff but well bad stuff shouldn't say good. But when you turn on the film last year, he was gone in for a Heisman Trophy finalist spot. And he could potentially do the same thing again this year. And if he cleans up, the ball placement is even more accurate than he was the year before.

We're going to have to legitimately talk about this guy as somebody who, at the very least, you might take a flyer on and say, hey, I know he's been hurt before, but if you put him out there, he might be able to win you some NFL games. So that's what I thought of Michael Penix. I don't disagree with anything you said.

I thought the thought about the hips and the mechanic part of that was really, really interesting. This is an easy transition because he's quarterback three for me. There you go. And I look at Penix, and I get it. The medical question marks that he will endure and probably already has endured from the NFL because he could have came out last year

and obviously went back to school. I'm sure once we talked at the top of the show about the impact of NIL on these quarterbacks staying. But Penix was somebody to me that you go back and look at the quarterbacks at the All-Star Games and he was eligible you would think with his arm he would be a difference maker in that environment and you turn on the tape and what he was able to do as a healthy player for washington last year i don't

know where their offense is without him when you watch him oh. Oh, yeah. Total difference maker, over 4,600 yards through the air, 31 touchdowns, eight picks. When I watched him, felt like a big-time throw machine. He had 24 of those. You said it, Trevor, only seven turnover-worthy plays, and he didn't take sacks. The amount of bad plays that Penix was able to eliminate that a lot of college quarterbacks can't was maybe the most impressive aspect to me of his game.

He now, assuming pretty safe assumption, he'll be a team captain this year. This will be his fourth college season as a team captain. He was a two-time team captain for Indiana. I'm assuming he will be a two-time team captain at Washington. He just has an howitzer of an arm that can challenge every level of the field. Serious velocity, serious timing. I don't think the injuries have impacted his unique tools. I didn't look at him and go, man, the guy's lost arm strength,

or he's not moving well, or his base is just clunky. And that's a big part of the equation. Are you a shell of what you once were? And I don't think he is. Very impressive operator in the pocket. He could drive the ball outside the numbers. And that, to me, I mean, you want to talk about making pro throws outside the numbers.

Michael Panix has a highlight tape of those already for Washington. Attacks the immediate area of the field like a pro. Plays in rhythm with timing, a very decisive nature to let throws rip before the wide receivers route is even really breaking outside the numbers from the 10 to 19 yard range, right? You think of those tough out throws to make, he completed 40 of 68 attempts for 638 yards.

That's a high rate of the... That's an NFL arm. That's an NFL arm. Like the upper echelon throws. His quarterback passer rating was very, very high. The tough stuff. He can spin out of trouble to break from the pocket. He's not a big runner, right?

He's a scrambler. He's not a runner. Yeah, I had him fully in the pocket category i didn't have yeah i didn't have him in dual threat category keeps his eyes downfield when scrambling so he was only sacked five times in 2022 that's that's unbelievable that you were sacked five times and had seven turnover worthy plays throughout the full course of a season and while still making the big plays um he has feel in the pocket, doesn't hold the ball too long. High level of field awareness on third and long.

I watched all of his throws on third and seven plus, and he knows where the sticks are every time. He doesn't throw the ball short. He's not doing stupid things. He has field awareness. Let's get into the cons. You covered them really, really well. Alarming and unfortunate injury history.

The two torn ACLs, 18 and 20. You brought up the injury where it's the clavicle to the sternum in 2019 and another shoulder injury in 2021 that was AC joint shoulder. I agree with you. The throwing motion is unorthodox. I didn't look at it with Quinn Ewers and I was like, damn, he's missing a lot of throws. Like, you got to figure something else out. I looked at it as a, but it's a little weird.

It's just different. It's just weird. It doesn't, maybe it'll bother a quarterback coach. I didn't see it affect his game, but I was like, yeah, it's a little, you're right. Loopy. Loopy is a good way to put it. I think we talked about this a little bit last year when we talked about Pennix, but his throwing motion reminds me of Kaepernick's where yes, they set up the same too. Yeah. It's just like they, I don't know if it's just the long limbs or what, but they throw very similarly where it's a little bit unorthodox, but that ball fires off of their wrist. I mean, Kaepernick had a howitzer and insane. I don't know if Penix has as strong of an arm as Kaepernick had a howitzer and insane. I don't know if Pennix has as strong of an arm as Kaepernick,

but it's, he's got a good arm. It's pretty damn close. He's got a great arm. So it's one of those where I watched him throw a couple of years ago. And I was like, dang, that's the,

basically the only quarterback I've ever seen who reminds me of Colin Kaepernick and his throwing motion. So he'll probably get a lot of comps as a passer to Kaepernick. Two nitpicky things I also wrote for the cons. I know he didn't have a lot of bad plays. I thought he does need to live for another down in the red zone sometimes. Like he gets in the red zone and it's like, okay, we're getting six here no matter what.

We're in between the 20s. I saw him operate more carefully, timely. We're just going to go up the field. I'm not worried about anything. I have three plays to go to get a conversion. We're going to go right up the field. In the red zone, there was a couple of times where I'm like, man, he really wants this touchdown

and he thinks he could fit that ball in a tight window that you don't have to do that. So that was one thing you really want to see. Just keep that same mindset that you had in between the 20s. And then when he alters his arm angle, his accuracy dips. That's the one time his accuracy dips. When he starts to change the arm angle, the arm slot, his accuracy goes down. So listen, I'm not going to get on here and play Scout Doctor in June. I'm not going to do it. We

could have that conversation when we get after the new year and medicals are real. And I'll sit here and tell you, I like player X, but the league has him three rounds later than me because they don't, their doctors won't clear them, whatever it may be. Michael Penix, the player that we saw at Washington last year was one of the best quarterbacks in the country. He passes the leadership test. He has NFL traits. He's a great pocket passer. Can't wait to see what he does this year. QB three for me in the summer. There we go. I,

I, I loved, I just loved it. We're talking about headaches, you know, it's a great story and more people are going to kick. Now that he's, I think top five for Heisman favorite.

I think people will be like, Oh, last year I felt like every week he's up there. He's up there. Maybe top, at least top 10. It felt like every week he's up there. He's up there. Maybe top, at least top 10. It felt like no one was really, he's like truly the guy that got written off. And after last year, I'm like, we sure about this?

Like, you sure about that? You sure about this? Because if we were writing down a list today of guys that I would want to watch live at the senior bowl that are eligible. Yeah. He's number one. And obviously we're excited about Bo Nix too. Who's done a lot of really nice things too.

But from a physical standpoint, physical nature, maybe Michael panics. All right. I got to talk to good people about some of the, before I get into my number three. All right. Imagine this.

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if you get a gambling problem call 1-800-GAMBLER one per customer opt-in required with a 10 entry fee bonus issued as ten draft kings dollars agent eligibility restrictions are applied void where prohibited see draftkings.com promotions for details all right number three for me i think this is gonna ruffle some feathers and i'm not doing this on purpose i'm honestly doing it as ruffle feathers yeah yeah in june yeah it's caleb wood no i'm just kidding i was like let's go i mean i am we are stock exchange meets first take on disputing whatever you want to call it whatever those shows are called these days so this one was very close to me and i'm gonna i'm gonna be honest with the good people out there with the good addicts

I would not have thought in a million years this was going to be close from I have Drake may of three and I have bone exit too and okay I did not I thought I liked bone next and I did not think we were going to get to this point I truly did now the Drake May bone X argument and we'll we could just kind of like have that big conversation because i assume that drake may is two for you and we're at that point oh he didn't make my top five okay right of course of course of course uh yeah we'll do it in one one we'll do it in one big uh conversation so unreal this is kind of the same kind of conversation that we had with like jordan travis and quinio's bonix and drake may and you're both fantastic players they're very close i ultimately went with the one that i think is just like better right now um the same thing that i went with

jordan travis like i think jordan travis is better than quinio is right now that's why he's five you know for if we're going off of a pure potential who has the highest ceiling drake may would be two on this list uh bonix would be i don't know if he'd be three or further down or whatever it is but ultimately i i'm gonna have drake may at number three and there's so much to like about unc passer all right they got him listed at six foot four 225 pounds both of those numbers are above the 50th percentile six foot four 75th percentile love to see it weight 225 63rd percentile absolutely love to see that as well a little bit of background on the young man four-star quarterback from huntersville north carolina was originally committed to play alabama before flipping the bird to nick saban flipping over to unc no he didn't do that but i mean he might have he kind of did he kind of did because he was committed to Alabama. Then he flipped over to UNC.

For all you dual sport athlete people out there, a three-year basketball standout in high school who averaged 16.1 points and 11.3 rebounds per game as a junior and earned all conference and all district honors. So Pete Carroll, we know that you listen to the show. We know that you love multi-sport athletes. That one was for you. He has got quite the family of athletes around him.

His dad, Mark, started at quarterback at UNC for two seasons in 1987 and 88. His brother, Luke, was a Tar Heel basketball legend from 2015 to 2019. I believe won a national championship. His brother Cole won an NCAA title as a pitcher at the University of Florida. Go Gators. And his brother Bo is a member of the UNC basketball team,

I believe still right now. So this team, this May family, just insane athletes all over the place. And Drake May, I believe, is the youngest of them. He was certainly on the stories that I read that he was the smallest of them. I said that his brothers used to beat him up in sports all the time. And, you know, who knows? Maybe Drake May is going to be a number one overall pick. Maybe he could always hold that over his brother since he got beat up on the court

and on the field growing up a bunch. 44 big-time throws for drake may that was an 8.5 big time throw percentage which was fourth best in all the fbs he had an fbs best 92.2 passing grade last season he was top five in big time throw percentage top five in adjusted completion percentage top 15 in turnover worthy play percentage so he was very low in turnover worthy plays as well and that was all coming on true drop backs with no rpos or play action so if you take all the rpo and play action plays away you're just a true drop back passer he is top five or top 15 in all those major categories he also had the most rushing attempts of any quarterback in the fbs with 153 but i kind of think that was more of just because the ball was in his hand a lot it's not like he

is this major dual threat kind of an athlete on the ground they just like to run qb power with him love to run qb delays and just had his ball the ball in his hands a ton for those scramble plays so i think that that's kind of why he had a lot of rushing attempts there not necessarily him being the best rushing threat of any quarterback in college football more than adequate arm strength is the first thing that i have on his strength profile when i'm going through the notes you get a really good baseline of understanding coverages already at being such a young starting quarterback something that really impressed me is he has fantastic touch on intermediate and deep passes makes some really well-placed balls in stride in the middle portions

and deep portions of the field, and that is really huge. Like I said, he's not an explosive athlete, but he's a fluid one. He can scramble. He can get outside the pocket. He can avoid pressure. So that's something that was definitely a positive note, even if he's not going to be a major dual threat in the NFL. Here's kind of where I have a little bit of drawbacks of Drake May

and why I have Bo Nix ahead of him at the moment. Both the arm strength and the accuracy take a decent dip when he's on the run. So when you get like out of structure plays, and I have him graded as a pocket quarterback, so this is okay. But when he is on the run, I noticed that both of those things took a decent dip. Okay, so he had those things that were kind of going against him there. Also think he gets – he said that – I read this in an article. He said he gets nervous before every single game still,

and there are times when he just like gets happy feet. Like there are a couple of plays where pressure was in his face and he had to either dump the ball off or throw the ball to a receiver who was like open. And he was like, like, like hopping, like leaping to just throw the ball to him. It's like, dude, just let's just stand there and like throw the ball to him. So he kind of like goes through a little bit of nerves. He's not as comfortable under pressure as some of these other quarterbacks that I watched and that's

fine it's totally fine he's a young starting quarterback he's just his first year of eligibility last year was his first year as a full-time starter so all that is totally totally fine but those are also areas of his game where that does have to improve. It's not just like, ah, you know, it's fine. We do need to see a better Drake May under pressure this upcoming season. He needs to be a little bit more grounded. He needs to be okay with when pressure's coming in different directions that he is not planning on.

And when he is out of structure, need to see a little bit more consistency, especially with that ball placement. Because the guys who are one and two above him that I have on this group, they were better with their accuracy and ball placement when it came to plays under pressure, at least from the games that I was able to watch from them. So ton to like about Drake May.

Love the arm, love the background, love how fluid of an athlete he is. The touch on passes, which is something that I emphasize a ton in my scouting profiles, that is something that was a major checkbox of his. Love the size as well. I just want to see that natural progression of, hey, year two is a full-time starter.

I'm better under pressure. I'm better at seeing things post-snap. I'm better when I'm out of structure, when I'm outside the pocket, all that good stuff. If that is the case, we are talking about a player that absolutely has the ability to go in the top 10, top five of an NFL draft. And so that's kind of where I am with Drake May going this season. It's an easy transition because I have him number two.

I mean, I love Drake May and watching him as, you know, obviously another really, really young player in this class was a joy because the talent is up there. I thought something that jumped out to me, he was pressured on 37% of his dropbacks in 2022. To put that in perspective, we always talk about what Will Levis dealt with last year. Will Levis was pressured on 38% of his dropbacks.

So Drake May was under pressure a whole hell of a lot. You mentioned the 44 big time throws. I actually liked him as an athlete. I thought he could move the pocket well, throw on the run. That was a part of his game where I'm like, OK, that he has enough of it that I don't I don't worry about that. I do think it's a good part of his game. He forced 26 missed tackles as a runner. He is a very... I did see that, yeah. It is, like we joke, but it is sneaky elusiveness. There was a couple of times where people would try to line him up

or they'd be like, oh, it's like this big quarterback. He's a pretty big guy for his age. And he has some shake to his game as a runner. But you brought it up Trevor the touch I wrote that he just paints targets with touch and placement where I'm sitting there and I'm like whether it was a bucket challenge or a bullseye or hitting the goal post like this dude has really really special ball placement pretty consistently it is when everything is clean, he's given that pocket or he's set up really nicely or even rolling with a moving pocket and throwing. It's beautiful.

I think where things got a little tricky was there are times where he'll drift backward and throw off his back foot and the ball loses all life. And that allowed defenders to make a play on the ball when he did that, and it's a bad habit. And he also really needs to be careful with lurking safeties, like safeties over the top. He just misses them sometimes. We talked about it with Pennix, and I'm sure you feel this way with Bo Nix. Their eye manipulation is in a very different place

because of how much college football they've played. Yes. And Drake May doesn't have that yet. There's just times where the safety just knows where he's going to throw it and jumps up and makes a play. Yep. Seven fumbles in 2022. There's times where I'm like, why are you taking that hit?

Like, I know you're tough as shit. I know you're a great player. Your team respects you. You've already proven to the world you're a great quarterback at the college level. You don't need to take that hit because you fumbled seven times. And there was plenty of them that it was like, you didn't need to take that hit because you fumbled seven times. And there was plenty of them that it was like, you didn't need to take that hit.

So with Drake May at his core, he is what a top 10 pick in the NFL draft looks like at the quarterback position. Now it's cleaning up things, polishing things, trying to limit the ball security issues that he has because he checks the box with his frame, his height, his accuracy. I think he has enough athleticism. Like it's all there. I did one thing I didn't say his feet, but you're right. It's a very happy feet sometimes, but when things are clicking right for him, his feet buzz and his shoulders consistently carry

over with them where his position to throw from the pocket. It's like, oh, that's why he has that kind of accuracy. Like it's all you watch these young quarterbacks and things are really funky a lot. And with Drake May, when things are all clicking, it's beautiful. It is really, really what you want at the position. So I loved him. He was QB two for me me i came away from this class and said damn the top two quarterbacks like i'd be really surprised if they're not top eight top five picks that's how impressed i was watching them yep um so i'm i'm really really excited about him this year yeah there's no question if may kind of again cleans up some of those bad habits or just things that you have a tendency to naturally learn

the more you play the game then we're talking about a guy who has an incredibly high ceiling so may was awesome uh i know i'm probably going to get a lot of hate for having him at number three but like just so you guys who could hear my voice know like it's not because i didn't think he's bad it's just because i think there's still room to grow for him and when he achieves that he'll probably jump up into that same category with ka williams being worthy of a top 10 overall selection so my number two guy is bo nicks and maybe i have bo nicks just because of how shocked i was when i watched his tape, because let me tell you guys, I thought Bo Nix stunk. I watched two years of Bo Nix when he was at Auburn, and I was like, get this guy off of my

screen. I don't want to hear people talk about Bo Nix anymore. He has had his two years at Auburn. He had his third year, obviously didn't play well there either. And I was just like, I'm not talking about, I don't care what school he goes to. He ends up going to Oregon. I'm like, shoot, I don't give a crap. And man, he was a lot of fun at Oregon. So looking at his measurable, six foot two, 215 pounds, six foot two would be 32nd percentile.

I think he's probably going to measure in a little bit shy of six foot two. So he's going to be under the 30th percentile with quarterbacks. And then 215 pounds is 27th percentile as well i think you mentioned him as being somebody that could probably gain a little bit of weight didn't bo nicks what did you have him as uh 6 2 and 215 is what oregon has him listed as a pretty good record that he's he's more 25 now so oh let's go yeah he's and you like you 25 would be 63rd percentile yeah he's he's he's very muscular very much thick yeah no he's that that's not a worry for me i wrote down i'm like he's got mass and it's it's muscle mass beautiful muscle mass okay i'm literally i'm updating the

sheet now because i'm so glad to hear that he is 225. So if he's 225, then that's 63rd percentile. So our boy's got some meat on him, Boz. All right. So the background with Bo Nix, four-star quarterback, originally from Pinson, Alabama, was an incredible high school quarterback. Isn't he from Arkadelphia? Oh, yeah. Remember that running joke we had? Isn't he from Arkadelphia? Oh, yeah.

I think he was born in Arkadelphia. Remember that running joke we had? He was born in Arkadelphia. Yes. Arkadelphia, Arkansas. Yeah, he was born in Arkadelphia, Arkansas. A real place. He played high school football for Pinson Valley High School

in Pinson, Alabama. So won Alabama's Mr. Football his senior season. City of Rambos. Alabama. So one Alabama's Mr. Football, his senior season, his father, Patrick, his father, Patrick Nix was a was a former player himself. He was the quarterback for Auburn from 1992 to 1995. You figure that that's probably the reason why when Nix committed to Auburn and started right away, one of's a little bit of a legacy play there. So started as a true freshman, played three seasons with the Tigers, but he was benched for TJ Finley in 2021. That ultimately led to him getting transferred over to Oregon. And that's basically where I was at, where I was like,

I don't want to talk about this guy as a pro. Like, the accuracy was not nearly what it needed to be. And worse than that, the making was awful when he was at auburn his decision making sucked he had an incredible second half beating oregon ironically enough in that very first game of his season freshman and people were like this guy's incredible he had one good second half of football and we talked about him for the next three years and he was never that good ever again a lot of that changed against when he went to Oregon now to your point the offense was simpler the average depth of target for him was less than it was previously when he

was at Auburn but still even when he started to attack deep down the field he started to take care of the ball a lot better 1.7 percent turnover worthy play percentage which is by far the best of his career this past year he didn't have a turnover worthy play percentage below 2.8 in any of the previous three seasons his play under pressure another area where i was like this guy is not nfl caliber improved drastically in 2022 he had a 72.2 passing grade under pressure last season, and his previous high was 62.8. I believe the two years before that they were in the 40s. So this guy really struggled with just plain old decision-making when it came to a clean pocket, decision-making when it came to play under pressure, accuracy, and turnover-worthy plays

across the board. He was better in all of those areas this past year. I think he had a, let me pull this up. I think I have it right here. His total adjusted completion percentage was 82.6%. This dude completed more than 80% of his passes. Now, you mentioned how many of them came behind the line of scrimmage. So you go, okay, let's factor in a handful of percentages there because he's throwing a lot of stuff behind the line of scrimmage.

But still, even if you took behind the line of scrimmage stuff away, which I think we can do in Ultimate, which I don't have the time to do right now because I'm talking, I bet we're still in a healthy mid-70s for him to complete a percent. He's accurate. I mean, you could say it with chest. He is way more accurate than he previously had been. I think he is such a fundamentally sound quarterback. And maybe this is again why I was so gravitated towards his tape. His feet are so mirrored with everything that happens above him. The feet to the hips, the shoulders, the chest, the release of the football, all of that,

it's just picture perfect almost every single time. The fundamentals are beautiful for this dude. You mentioned how smart he is pre-snap. He is already comfortable adjusting plays. There were a handful of times in the games that I watched of him where he recognizes things pre-snap and he adjusts the play calls. Now, sometimes you get in a situation where you break the huddle and you got two plays and you're killing one of them.

But either way, he's making really great calls knowing where the linebacker is going to flow to. Is this going to be a blitz? Do I think the defensive end is going to crash? Are the safeties going to rotate down? Or am I going to get two safeties high? He never seemed rattled because it felt like he had the answers to the test before he snapped the ball because he knew what the coverage is going to be. So that was great. Decent athleticism to be an RPO threat at the NFL. He's not going to be a burner, but he understands how to slide. He understands when to get down and he understands

when to tuck it and run. So I think that's going to be there. You mentioned that you didn't love his arm strength. I actually did. I actually liked his arm strength a decent amount. I think that's where you and I see him differently the most, is you kind of question, okay, his arm might be fine for the NFL. It's adequate. I think it's a little bit better than fine. There are a handful of times where I felt like he was firing it to the sideline for a back shoulder throw, and he was able to hit it um in the game

oh what was it hold on i have it right here in the ucla game there is a play where he dials up a 55 yard bomb deep and it just looks like a thing of beauty. And it is just perfectly in line, in stride, right in the end zone, right into the bread basket. And that was a 55-yard bomb. So I went, okay, this guy's got the distance to do it. Now, did it have a little bit of a Russell Wilson moon ball arc to it? Yeah, okay, it did. But he still got it exactly where it needed to be.

So I was pretty comfortable with him there. Something else that I wanted to note about his fundamentals and his kind of football IQ, if you will, a lot of these guys that you watch nowadays, they operate strictly from the shotgun. Like it's a lot of shotgun offenses because shotgun, you know, you don't have to worry about the timing of the guy behind you, kind of getting even with you're getting into the play. You don't have to turn your back on play action. You get to scan the field a little bit more. You get to be already a couple of steps back if pressure's coming at you, so you get a little bit of extra time to react to it.

Bo Nix is comfortable in the shotgun. Also very comfortable under center. Very used to playing under center. They'll go center. They'll go gun with him. So he's very versatile in that regard as well. There were a couple of times during his tape when I felt like he had a little bit of flair for the dramatics when it comes to the deep ball but it really was not nearly as drastic as it was the year before so it to me that's still quite the improvement

the georgia game yeah the georgia game was really bad but that was the first game of the season he drastically improved as the year went on and a lot lot of those turnover-worthy plays really went away. So I just, I was so impressed with what I saw from Bo Nix. Such a fundamentally sound quarterback. Somebody who understands how to win the position between the ears before you win with your arm. Loved his versatility of where you could play him, shotgun, under center, all that kinds of stuff. Ton of experience.

You could see that. And I liked his arm. I thought his arm was better than, a little bit better than adequate for the nfl level when it came to zip uh velocity if you will and then on distance too so super impressed with the man um that's that's ultimately why because of how clean his 2022 season was that's why i have him at number two here on this list all right let's get to the grand finale i mean no one's really that surprised but that caleb williams lands at qb1 here um i'll just jump right into it from watching him and this is caleb williams is in that bucket of player that you know as it stands

today he is the runaway favorite to be the number one overall pick in the 2024 NFL draft. And it's not just the sports books, the general public, the NFL is already looking at the sky and thinking the same thing. And he's somebody that honestly, would he have been the number one pick this year? I can't answer that question. You think definitively? Yes. Definitively. Yes. Okay. I mean, i definitely lean that way but it's yeah it's that crazy and it goes to show you how talented he is so kevin williams comes off heisman trophy winning year um completed 66.7 of his passes for over 4 500 yards 42 touchdowns five interceptions only nine turnover worthy plays 31 big time throws

rushed for 382 yards and 10 rushing touchdowns the good i wrote down with him compact build that looks to be carrying desired mass for the position with a frame that can hold a lot of good weight full field reader that can manipulate defenders with his eyes not much fear of getting hit or needing to shed contact can throw with his arm at any angle and entirely without his base releases fast and the ball effortlessly explodes out of his hands unique arm talent where he can roll and move the pocket one way then deliver with velocity to the other side of the field in advantageous coverage it like they set up plays where quarterbacks are not supposed to be able to hit that area of the field

from where he's positioned and this guy can do it and that alone is a very very unique advantage under center slippery in the pocket an escape artist getting out of it he has those wow plays where you're like he there's defenders draped all over him, and then ooh, comes screaming out of the pocket with the baggy long sleeves on to extend a play. Here's just a wild number. Yards per attempt when kept clean, 9.0. Yards per attempt when under pressure, 8.6. He's no different. No different under pressure 8.6 he's no different no different under pressure and he had 14

touchdowns and no picks when pressured i mean watching him play and i i did write down cons i want to be fair it's not perfect player it's not perfect player at all but he's set himself up, Trevor, to be or is an excellent quarterback prospect because he can do things that many cannot. And he's already playing at an extremely high level. Some of the things I wrote down in the con section was he naturally drifts backwards and sideways at times.

If the initial read he wants isn't open, he'll just kind of carry his body back or sideways because once again, he could play off platform. And I don't think that's something you want to constantly do. I do think you don't need in this era to be, you know, Peyton Manning pocket passer, right? Like I don't need you to do that, but it does have to be a consistent part of your game because teams will just drop a million defenders in coverage and say, beat us playing within the pocket. Right.

And I think he has some growth to go through there. I wrote goes through progressions, but still working on processing from the pocket for anticipation throws. He likes to see guys open and rip it. He doesn't like to always throw guys open. There's examples, but consistently with a clean pocket, he likes to wait a little bit. His misses can be from his base, not transferring with his eyes. He knows he has a special arm and he occasionally tries to cheat throws. If you want to know what I'm talking about, some people don't think I'm completely insane because I know Caleb Williams is probably the most hyped

quarterback prospect we've had in a while. Watch the Colorado game. He comes out of the Colorado game and USC was like, okay, we're going to open up with some scripted short throws, screens, drags, airmails, plenty of them. And then they just start out athleting and highlight real playing. They're just a better team and he's a better player than everybody on the field. But that's an example of a time where it's like, make the throw, you know, drop back, hit the screen. And the fact that I have to talk about, that's what I'm talking about with this guy. It shows how special he is.

And I don't want to take up the whole Caleb Williams section. So I just want, I want to throw to you. But obviously, a very, very exciting player to scout. Very, very exciting. I agree with a ton of what you said. Obviously, I, you know, when you were saying, would this guy have been the number one overall pick this year? I fully believe that Caleb Williams guy have been the number one overall pick this year? I fully believe that Caleb Williams would have been the number

one overall pick this year. I fully believe that. He's listed at 6'1", 220 pounds. 6'1", only 14th percentile. So it's not like this guy's like the prototypical quarterback size. He's still a little bit on the smaller side for the quarterback position, even though you don't really think about it when you're watching him. 220

pounds would be the 45th percentile so still below 50th percent but that's okay um especially when you watch a play you'll be all right background a little bit of background information on him um before i kind of dig into what i thought of the film notes as well five-star quarterback from washington dc was the number two quarterback in the 2021 draft class or 2021 recruiting class behind quinn ewers so qu Quinn Ewers was the number one quarterback in that class. Caleb Williams was number two, actually grew up playing running back before his coaches said that his arm strength was too good to be playing running back.

So we, an NFL franchise, I think owes that coach something, something for convincing this guy to, to be a quarterback. He got a, he got a scholarship offer from Maryland before he even played a down of high school football. His nickname is Superman. If you look at his logo for his NIL stuff, it is the Superman shield, but it's just got a CW for Caleb Williams

in the middle of that. So yeah, a little bit of a trivia there for you when you talk about his logo. He obviously played at Oklahoma before he played at usc he's followed lincoln riley the whole way he committed to lincoln riley when he was at oklahoma ended up uh taking over for spencer rattler his true freshman season and then he ended up moving over to uh to usc when he left for southern or when um when riley left for southern cal

last year some accolades for him won the Heisman trophy in 2022 set USC records for passing yards, total touchdowns, total passing touchdowns, lowest interception rate, and most passes completed. That was all as a true sophomore in his first season there at USC. Unbelievable. 1.6 turnover, where you play right with and without pressure. That is stupid. The fact that you have one of the lowest turnover-worthy play rates in college football, and you have the same low turnover-worthy play rate when you are pressured? Silly.

Take a look, everyone. His passing grade under pressure, here's a little bit of comparison for the would he have gone number one overall. The biggest thing that Bryce Young boasted was what, Connor? Between the ears, right? How he played under pressure. It was unbelievable to see how Bryce Young played when he was under pressure. Bryce Young's passing grade last year, under pressure, 70.8.

It was one of the best in the FBS. The best in the FBS? That was Caleb Williams. 79.7. He almost had a grade in the 80s as a passer under pressure. Folks, this is stupid. It's absolutely stupid how good he is. He's got the arm talent.

He's got the talent with his legs as well. He could be a little bit of a dual threat for you. He checks all the physical boxes. The way that he attacks all areas of the field has been unbelievable some weaknesses and i'll throw these out there as well because you mentioned those two uh arm talent and i agree with you here arm talent has understandably yielded some bad tendencies he's not often put it's put in situations where he cannot throw his way out of it in college football even if he reads the defense and releases it a

little bit behind um but some of those passes that were broken up that i saw in some of those plays they turn into interceptions at the nfl level so right perfectly coachable but it is something that you've got to monitor for as magical as he is outside of structure in the highlight plays that we'll see on sports center he has some head scratching moments under pressure where he'll you this was the this was the part that bothered me the most about his game he will magically escape pressure between the pocket and he will get to the outside the left or right and there will be 12 yards of green grass in front of him for him to pick up before he even has to slide. And he will just stand at the line of scrimmage and say, no, no, no, no, no.

We're going, we're going for it all, baby. And you can say to yourself, oh, well, you know, he'll learn that eventually. He does need to learn that, though. Yeah, exactly. It's the same conversation with Drake May. We can sit here and say, yeah, yeah, yeah, but he'll learn that eventually. Okay like you you it's the same conversation with drake may we can sit here and say yeah yeah yeah but he'll learn that eventually okay it's not always the case i think it will be the case but he's just got to get to a point where if caleb williams played a little bit better situational football i mean this dude's just an unstoppable player at

the quarterback position right he has every other gift to him he's just an unstoppable player at the quarterback position, right? He has every other gift to him. He's just got to play a little bit better situational football. And I think that that's something that you got to note as well. So there we go. I had Caleb Williams as well as my quarterback. Number one, that is no surprise. I don't think to, to either of us, to anybody out there, um, Connor, do you have anybody else? I, we both mentioned our six guy because yours was Jordan Travis. Mine was Quinn ears, but anybody else i we both mentioned our sixth guy because yours was jordan travis mine was queen ears but anybody else you watch or that you watched a little bit of last year that you kind of want to shout out throughout the names that you that you wrote down on your

watch list a couple guys i'm keeping an eye on at least you know you look at we did tyler van dyke's eval last year he did not have a good season. He needs a big rebound season. Devin Leary will be on the NFL's radar at Kentucky now. Yep. I like Leary. I do like Leary. I wonder what his ceiling is. Game manager.

But can he be that Jake Hayner of this class? Bingo. That's exactly what you want him to be. Same with, you know, you have, sure, I want to ask you, I know you watch Joe Milton. He's like the just

total wild card of this draft because not only has he not played a ton, he's a massive human. He's an older prospect. He could probably throw the ball 90 yards. Dude, it's unbelievable. But he needs to be a quarterback is what he needs to be.

So he's a very fascinating name to keep an eye on. Yeah, so I didn't eval for Milton on this one. He was not close to my top five. So he's 6'5", 242 pounds, which is 98th percentile and 94th percentile okay so this huge huge he was a three-star quarterback from orlando spent some time in michigan sat behind shea patterson for two years got a chance to start back name started right started for a little bit uh got replaced by kate mcnamara then he transferred to tennessee was the starter at tennessee then got replaced by hen hooker so now he is going to be the starter again at tennessee i have in my notes here for him

without question we'll have the strongest arm in this class and in fact we'll have one of the strong one of the strongest arms in the nfl when he gets to the nfl so i mean whatever there's a lot of things that also go into playing the quarterback position but if you're talking about like arm talent he checks those boxes completely checks all the physical boxes lower mechanic lower body mechanics just stop at times I mean he is not bouncing around the pocket it's like his feet are in cement sometimes there is no natural marrying between what's going on with his feet what's going on with his shoulders what's going on with his hands what's going on with his eyes what's going on with his head like what's going on with his shoulders, what's going on with his hands, what's going on with his eyes, what's going on with his head.

It's all discombobulated. It is not a fluid thing for him right now. Lack of mechanics caused some major accuracy issues for him. Adjusted completion percentage has never been higher than 67.5. Never been higher. And that was limited play last year. So a full season of him, and he's got to that thing above like 7% more than it was last year. He just does.

He is not nearly as accurate or consistent enough of a player to to be considered a serious NFL quarterback at this point in time. I also so I watch JJ McCarthy and Spencer Rattler as well for this exercise. Yeah, me too. Rattler. Rattler kind of is what he is, guys. I mean, like a lot of the- You can keep hoping. Yeah, a lot of the points that I would say are very, they're very stereotypical, I think, for Spencer Rattler.

He just has to be a better decision maker, under pressure and not under pressure. That's about it. He puts the ball in harm's way a lot, and he's got a good arm, so sometimes he can get away with it, but his turnover, the play percentage is not good. And though his accuracy scores are high, that decision-making is not where it needs to be. JJ McCarthy. I know a lot of people like him started for the first time last year with

Michigan, obviously took Michigan on a, on a wild ride, getting to the college football playoff. Here's, here's, here's kind of the first thing that I wrote in my – well, first and foremost, they have him listed at 6'3", which 6'3 is 54th percentile. I would tell you that J.J. McCarthy is probably like 6'2". So I think he's a little bit shorter than what Michigan has him listed as. They've got him listed at 196. My guy needs to start eating peanut butter and J.J. sandwiches.

A school listing you at 196 is not good because we know that you want to help you right 196 is the first percentile of weight for quarterbacks this is roads at 200 the guys the guys got to get bigger he's got to gain weight he has to gain weight from a durability standpoint. He has to gain weight from a durability standpoint, and he has to gain weight from a strength standpoint. Because you can tell he gets rattled under pressure because I think he's getting hit by a lot of these big guys. He does not deal with pressure very well.

The internal clock in his head is not where it needs to be. The accuracy under pressure is not where it needs to be. He needs to play more football, essentially. He's got to get bigger, and he's got to play more football. Natural talent, I think that he is an alluring athlete and a natural passer, but he is not a quarterback right now. He is simply a thrower of the football. He does not play the position with the

awareness and iq and knowledge that you need to really play it and i think that you see that by the fact that when i looked up his numbers he only has 13 big time throws to eight turnover worthy plays and that just shows you that's a quarterback that they have not let loose yet like for you for you to only have those low of numbers i think kind of hints at that a little bit so that that was kind of my thoughts on jj mccarthy and spencer rattler so those are my thoughts on those three guys totally agree the guys in my top five that i watched them the guys that didn't make my top five that i watched the most of were jordan travis and jj mccarthy and i wrote down my car to piggyback off you and the first line of in the car in the cons was dangerously chaotic in the

pocket and can run himself into the pass rush. Yes. Yes. And I'm like, he's like, he's a little, he's a young quarterback and it's, you know,

he's, he's a little, uh, hopped up back there. And I, I'm with you too. I didn't think he played fast. You know,

he doesn't read the field fast. He misses lurking zone defenders. He's got a long ways to go interesting hockey background he had to choose between hockey and football i did read that as well yes very interesting background with him so yeah i mean trevor said he's got over 20 same with me i ended up with 29 names on this quarterback watch list you know we we're going to talk about throughout the season kj jefferson jayden daniel schuder sanders uh, Brennan Armstrong, Cam rising, like all the guys you're wondering about that you didn't hear about

today. You're going to hear about them throughout the season, but this is, this is summer scouting where the best of the best have been evaled and ranked and mentioned. And, and this is where we start every single year. There are so many quarterbacks, man. I mean, DJ Young, the little A's in this class, still Sam Hartman's in this class, like Grayson McCall, Grayson McCall's in this class still sam hartman's in this class like grayson mccall grayson mccall's in this class there's so many quarterbacks and that is our actually uh let's recap our top fives real quick my top five i had jordan travis at number five um i had michael

pennix at number four i had drake may at number three i had bo nicks at number two and i had caleb williams at number one so number five for me was quinn ewers uh number four for me was bo nicks number three michael penix number four drake may and of course number one caleb williams and you said number four drake may but you meant number two drake may you can't be lower on drake may than me No, I will not be. I will not be. And I can't have two number fours and no number two. That'd just be playing myself. Guys, we want to know what y'all think.

There are, like Connor said, there's so many names to know in this quarterback class that we know that you guys out there have watched a little bit of all of these guys. Let us know what you think of our takes, what you think of our rankings, but also give us yours as well. If there's a quarterback that we didn't talk about enough, us about him hit us up in the youtube comments all you gavin hardison fans out there sound off youtube.com backslash at nfl stock exchange is the best way to get in on the conversations and like connor said summer scouting took on a life of its own

last year this is some of my favorite episodes that we do in this series, because it gives us the ability to really look back on the takes that we had during the summer, how guys improved, how they didn't, whether they stayed the same, whether we knew who they were all along. You guys can get in on that conversation too. We'd love to hear from you. We would love to hear as many summer scouting thoughts as possible, not just for this quarterback class, but for all of the players. So let us know in the YouTube comments is the best way for love to hear as many summer scouting thoughts as possible not just for this quarterback class but for all the players so let us know in the youtube comments is the best way

for us to hear your thoughts to echo them here on the show we're gonna have some you know fan friday or mailbag episodes too where we read a lot of you guys's thoughts to get in on the fun as well if you're audio only you could hit us up on twitter and instagram at tampa bay tray and at connor j rogers we will be back with you next week, next Monday to talk about the running back group as we are going position by position throughout the rest of the summer. But Connor, you got anything else before we get out of here? Smash, like, subscribe. We're done. Smash, like, and subscribe, baby. For Connor Rogers, I am Trevor Sikama. Thank you guys so much for watching and listening to the NFL's Dog Exchange podcast. We'll see you next time. Bye.