NFL Stock Exchange: An NFL Draft Podcast - 202. Updated Thoughts/Rankings for Top QBs in 2024 NFL Draft Class

Episode Date: October 19, 2023

Hosts Trevor Sikkema and Connor Rogers give you their updated opinions on the top quarterbacks for the 2024 NFL Draft

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It's awesome. Sign up now at youtube.com slash BS, device and content restrictions apply. Local and national games on YouTube TV. NFL Sunday ticket for out-of-market games excludes digital-only games. Welcome to the NFL Stock Exchange Podcast. In this episode, we're talking quarterbacks, baby.

We're giving you an update on what we think of the quarterbacks in the 2024 NFL draft class out midway through college football season. A lot of changes from what we thought of these guys during summer scouting, so it's a good conversation i'm trevor sycamore with you as always is connor rogers let's ring the bell welcome to the opening bell of the nfl stock exchange podcast i'm trevor sycamore that is connor rogers joining you guys for a midweek edition of the pod,

which means we get back to our roots. We're going straight NFL draft talk. And today we've got an exciting one for you. We can't let JTO Sullivan have all the fun talking about quarterbacks. We got to talk about quarterbacks too. Shout out JT and the QB school. One of the best YouTube shows that is out there. But we are talking QBs. It's been a while, Connor, since we've really had a recheck here

since the season began on these 2024 guys because we were very excited about them going into the season. Still reason to be excited, but there has been some up and down with some of these guys in our rankings, and I'm excited to hear some updated thoughts from you, my friend. Right back at you, man. I think that this is a really deep quarterback class. There's been legitimate risers this year that I hadn't seen play until we decided to do this show. And then, of course, the staples that we talk about in the first round when we do mock drafts, when we talk about the Heisman, things like that. So this is going to be a really fun

couple of months with quarterbacks because there's going to be a lot of hype at the top and that exists almost every single year but I think when you talk about developmental day two quarterbacks I think that actually holds real weight this year it felt like there's been some years where we've been grasping at straws or really hoping a guy can be that this year I feel pretty good about at least a handful that i would classify as legitimate day two developmental guys that i'm excited to watch play yeah it feels like in years past it really has been either your top 15 or i don't really like it was basically like we we don't really i wouldn't get excited about investing a pick into this developmental quarterback here.

But this year, I agree with you, it's very different. There's a couple of quarterbacks who I had in my top 50 going into the season who I now have outside of my top 50 now after kind of going through these rechecks. And we'll get into those guys. But it's because I kind of see them more of that way. Like, hey, I'm comfortable spending some sort of day two capital on this player, letting him sit, letting him develop, because there's things like, but they're just not quite a finished product yet. It feels like in years past, the reason why we didn't have these developmental guys

is because there weren't even those players with the tools, right? It wasn't even like, oh, yeah, he's got the tools. He just needs time. It's almost like we were just trying to force it because they simply played the quarterback position. But I'm sure we'll get into a lot of that with a lot of these different guys. Do you want to start with Caleb?

Where do you want to go to pick this one off? Yeah, I mean, I think we have to. After the Notre Dame loss, when he went from being the number one overall pick to now, you know. UDFA. I'm just going to say day three, but nope, not draftable, not a great outing for Caleb Williams. And in fact, I went and looked this up because I wrote

an article about it. The second lowest single game passing grade of his career. And the only time he has ever had four turnover worthy plays in a single game in that loss that we saw to Notre Dame. So give me your thoughts on Caleb, not just this past game that we saw from him, but just overall where you're at. We had him as the unquestioned number one overall pick, number one overall prospect. You still feel that way about him? What do you think? Yeah, for me, here's the thing. A lot of what we saw against Notre Dame, it were not actually just Notre Dame. With Caleb Williams, this is it, right, for me.

I'll start with the big picture of what we talked about over summer. He's an electric talent. He's got a very unique arm. He's an escape artist in and out of the pocket. He can make plays on the run that not a lot of guys on this planet will ever be able to make. And he also can operate quick game because of the arm slot, the arm angles, the snappy release. Like all of that is really, really exciting to me. And what I had written down over summer.

And he wasn't my number one overall player. Like Marvin Harrison Jr. was my number one overall prospect because I saw a more refined prospect, elite prospect. They're both elite prospects. But with Marvin, I said I could drop him into the NFL today. And I think he's the number one wide receiver. Yeah. And with Caleb, the big thing that I had circled was, and I'm going to pull up my summer notes here

before I get into the specific notes from watching the Notre Dame game on the All-22. For all the great things, and there are so many great things. He is a bit of a drifter at times and sideways when that first read isn't open. He gravitates to being an athlete, out-athleting people. He goes through his progressions, but he's still working on processing from the pocket to throw with anticipation. Like he's making the reads, but he's not always throwing with anticipation from the pocket. And he's still growing as a pocket passer where he'll miss some layups that I easily see him hit when he's on the move or when things are a little erratic,

where in the pocket and static, his base can be, you know, he doesn't always play with his base because he typically doesn't have to. And the last thing, this is all from summer. The last thing I'd written down too from his negatives, because there was a laundry list of positives. Misses can be from his base, not transferring with his eyes. He knows he has a special arm and he occasionally tries to cheat throws. And all of this is in structure, right, Trevor? Like it'd be a drop back pocket passing quarterback. I know what you can do out of structure. It's special. But I think what we saw against Notre Dame as I pull up these notes is that he's playing out of structure even when in structure. And what i mean by that is it can be a drop a drop back and he has his reads and the pocket is clean enough and he starts getting jittery it feels a little crazy

i start moving i put my eyes down or i cut the field in half or that he doesn't always have to do that but he's been able to always do that he was able to do it ok, but he's been able to always do that. He was able to do it at Oklahoma. He's been able to do it as, you know, obviously a stellar career at USC. Right. They're usually the better opponent, more powerful opponent on the field. And what I wrote was this was extremely chaotic under pressure, and he wasn't seeing the middle of the field in this game. When the pressure, when the pocket got tight,

he'd either drop his eyes or he wasn't seeing the middle of the field in this game. When the pressure, when the pocket got tight, he'd either drop his eyes or he wasn't seeing the middle of the field. And that's when those turnover worthy plays came into effect where I don't want to say he was guessing, but it felt like he was thinking he could make throws that weren't there because the defense was sitting on it in the middle of the field. And here's another one too,

getting away from the middle of the field. And here's another one, too, getting away from the middle of the field. He was waiting for his wide receivers outside the numbers to be open before throwing the ball. That's a really dangerous game. Like he dropped back outside the numbers. You want to see them open and throw it when that's really a drop

and you're going to throw it and they're going to come back to the ball. When they break their route, the ball is out. And once again, this sounds like I'm just killing Caleb Williams, the best quarterback in this draft. No, but it matters. It matters. It absolutely matters. Yeah. My number two overall prospect in this draft from summer, I haven't done an updated big board. I know you have. I'll probably do that in November for NBC. I will give him this in this game. Not a good day from his

wide receivers. Three drops. I did not see a lot of separation in the intermediate part of the field and the deep part of the field. Hats off to Marcus Freeman's Notre Dame defense like that. They played a really good game. They frustrated him. They made it. They forced them into bad decisions. But what they did is what NFL teams are going to do to Caleb Williams. And I will say this,

will his coaching at the NFL level be better than what he's getting now? I don't know. Maybe if Ben Johnson goes somewhere and they get Caleb Williams, but there's also going to... So that was just my notes from this game. He's still a tremendous prospect.

He has all the talent in the world. But my question coming out of summer was, can you play a little bit more calm and in rhythm and structure? And this game did not give me any answers to the biggest question I had coming out of the summer. Yeah, man, I don't think you're killing Caleb Williams at all. I think it's something that you really want to think about,

especially since there have been really good talented draft prospects that have come through over the last couple of years who maybe have had similar sort of issues that they weren't able to get it figured out in the nfl level like i think everybody watches what caleb williams has done over the last couple of years and they just go well patrick mahomes patrick mahomes patrick right but you know there's also the zach wilson's right okay you play in an offense that was wide open where you didn't really have to play out of structure. You didn't really have to anticipate super well.

You were a magician when pressure was coming and you could escape and extend the play. And Zach can't see the field right now. I know he's better this year, but certainly not the number two overall pick or what he was at BYU. So there's kind of, it can't just be Patrick Mahomes, right? I mean, Patrick Mahomes is a

rarity for a reason. It's because a lot of other guys who maybe would have been of similar style, couldn't figure it out at the NFL level. And I think that that's why you've got to bring up a little bit of devil's advocate with him. So I looked up some numbers from Caleb this week, including the Notre Dame game, but more just as a whole this season because it's not just the Notre Dame game. Last year, Caleb Williams had the highest passing grade under pressure of any quarterback in the FBS. It was nearly in the 80s. It was 79.5, which is incredible to have a passing grade that high

when you are pressured. I don't think he had a single turnover-worthy play last year when he was pressured. I think it was seven big-time throws and zero turnover where he plays. This year, he has the fifth lowest passing grade of any quarterback in the FBS when he is pressured. It has gone from a 79.5 to a 28.3. That's wild. Just crazy drastic and it and it goes to show those insane plays that we watched last

year that all seemed to go well for him question everybody had on their mind while they were watching it in awe was is this even sustainable and throughout an entire year last year he showed that it was but here we are in the next season and he's showing that it's not the issue with Caleb Williams for me right now and it kind of goes a little it piggybacks from some of the concerns that you already talked about is the time to throw it's how he manages how long he feels like he can have the ball in his hand. Because last year, he felt pretty damn invincible, right? He held onto that ball for too long,

but he was just, like you said, he was just an escape artist. He was a magician. He could get away from it every time and give us those jaw-dropping plays. This year, it's not as much, but he's still holding onto the ball really long and it's turning into a ton of turn. Right now, this year, he's not as much, but he's still holding onto the ball really long, and it's turning into a ton of turnover.

Right now, this year, he's got more turnover-worthy plays than he has big-time throws even this year. Yeah, that's pretty wild for a player of his caliber. His time to throw this year is an average of 3.21 seconds. Last year, it was 3.44. That 3.21 number is by far the highest of any of the draft eligible quarterbacks that I have ranked on the top 200 right now. In fact, the only quarterback who's above three seconds is J.J. McCarthy, and he's barely over three. It's like 3.02. To give you guys some context, 3.21 is his time to throw, how long he holds onto the ball.

2022 Kenny Pickett was 3.10. Actually, that would be 20. Yeah, yeah. 2023 Anthony Richardson was 3.10. 2022 Bryce Young was 2.96. 2019 Joe Burrow, 2.92. 2022 CJ Stroud last year, 2.91. Trevor Lawrence when he was coming out, 2.92 2022 cj stroud last year 2.91 trevor lawrence when he was coming out 2.91 zach wilson the one that people kind of point to like wow he held onto the ball way too long

in a wacky non-nfl offense zach wilson 2.78 so zach wilson's time to throw and i and in order to search for this i took out no plays i filtered out no plays and i also filtered out throws that were before five yards so any type of like screen quick play that was just meant to get the ball out of your hands really quickly where you're not holding on to the ball to read the field i took those out so the range of throws this is all time to throw on range of throws from five yards to 60 yards deep down the field so we're talking about when you take away those schemed throws this guy's holding onto the ball at an insane level yeah this year there's not this year there's only three quarterbacks in the nfl starting quarterbacks

who have a time to throw of over three seconds it's josh allen it's jalen hurts and it's russell wilson last year the only starting quarterback in the nfl who had a time to throw above three was justin fields and we know how much he struggled and what happened there right caleb williams cannot do this and succeed at the nfl level he is supremely talented he makes plays that you like you said i completely agree with you no other quarterback can make and for that he is a very very high ceiling prospect but this part of his process has to change and if people are going to say if people came to me and said i don't believe it can change then i understand why you might have drake may as qb1 in this class i understand why you might not be taking caleb will one overall, because if you don't believe that his process can get faster,

that he can operate under structure a little bit better, and that time to throw can be in the twos, buddy, that is tough to find NFL success, because those defensive linemen, they're too big, they're too strong, they're too fast. You won't be able to get away with them or get away from them the way that you did that heisman year in 2022 so unfortunately for caleb williams and the outlook with him as a prospect he does have some work to do it's got to be a quicker process and i don't know how much quicker it gets at usc it might be something where he's just going to have to go through a lot of growing pains probably in his first and part of his second year in the NFL well I think that's kind of the way I see him as well totally I think we're eye to eye and I just want to make

clear this is not it is those are my notes from the Notre Dame game. But I said all these things on the summer show going into this year saying, man, he's a great prospect, a great quarterback prospect. But there are things he still has to answer this year if he wants to be one of the all time prospects. Right. And it's gone backwards. It has gone backwards. It's gone backwards.

This year is objectively worse for him than it was last year. He's probably still the favorite to go number one overall. I get that. He is still my top quarterback right now. He's not jumped Marvin Harrison as my top player. If anything, I'd have him also behind

Olu Fashanu today. I think I would. There's a quarterback curve in the draft. You got to take a quarterback if you're that bad at the top. I get all of it. I think Caleb, like most quarterback prospects, is not situation proof. He's not.

I thought Trevor Lawrence was one of the closest I've ever seen to situation proof. And the Jaguars said, let's test that, buddy. Here's Urban buddy. Here's Urban Meyer. So it's man, it's it's really interesting. And I think, you know, I'll tee it up this way. It's also interesting, Trevor, because guys like Drake May and Michael Penix and some other quarterbacks in this class are supremely, supremely talented. And with that, I'll toss it to you of who you want to talk about next. We can talk about May. You know, he's the guy who I think is next and we won't go totally in order of the big board, but I think you kind of got to talk about these guys one and two,

because they're in the conversation to be QB one. And I think there's some people out there who very much believe that Drake may should be QB one in this draft. And Drake may gives you a lot of reason to think that I went and I went for this show. I went back and I watched the last two games that he played. And man, it's just he's so very clearly got an NFL arm. You know, he can fire the ball from so many different types of platforms, you know, different body angles. Something I love is that he anticipates really what you mentioned with Caleb. There were times in that Notre Dame game where he was not trusting his receivers enough

and he was waiting until they got open for him to throw the ball. Drake may just week in and week out. It's anticipation stuff, you know, balls out of his hands before the the before the wide receiver even turns for the back shoulder throw you know or or the comeback or whatever it is there was one throw that i love there was a scene throw up the middle god who's i think this was against miami where drake's he it's it's a zone it's a zone drop and believe it was cover three. So it was kind of like the seam in between the outside, past the linebacker, past the apex defender, the slot defender,

in between where the deep third player was at the sideline and the deep third player that was in the middle of the field. And Drake throws the ball when this wide receiver is fully covered in his own from somebody, but he throws it in stride exactly when it needs to be to for when the receiver is running at the point where he is open in between the zones that is exactly when the ball is getting there that is supreme confidence and how you are seeing the field how you diagnose coverages now there are times that you know i wish drake wouldn't take so many chances

because he simply doesn't have to. I'd like for the turnover where he plays to be a little bit further down, but this guy has the highest volume of big-time throws in this class for a reason. It's because he's got the arm talent. He's got a great mind for it. He's also a really nice athlete. He's not quite the athlete that Caleb Williams is. His best plays out of structure

still don't match what caleb williams did last year out of structure but yeah i agree man this is it's close this is a lot closer than i think everybody you know we've joked around on this podcast you know the caleb williams bowl between teams and and maybe it's not quite that maybe it really is much more of a discussion and certainly from from the way that Williams has taken a little bit of a step back this year in his efficiency and how Drake May continues to be firing on all cylinders, if you will. I think that it's really becoming a pretty close conversation between these two for QB1. It is. And there will naturally be scouts that just like, that just prefer Drake May because of the first thing you kicked off with

is that he's a guy that throws with anticipation consistently, even if he's wrong. Sometimes there's interceptions on his tape where you're like, man, he was wrong there. But I think if he continues to play as much as he has, he'll clean those up and really start to master beating coverages, dropping throws in between zone. Like you said,

I think he has a great grasp on timing of short area concepts. The deep ball is really pretty. It's a really, really pretty deep ball. I think he gets a little overzealous with his intermediate throws because he has a lot of velocity in that arm. Yeah, he he thinks there are windows that he can hit that I don't know, you know, Mahomes Rogers like those guys can hit those windows. He just he's very confident. And I wrote down to like the pass pro from UNC against Miami was was pretty bad.

But there's also times where he needs to understand where the blitzers are. Like there's times where it's like, yeah, you got five blockers, but you might have a sixth or seventh guy coming. Like that one's on you. You're the quarterback. You got to identify that guy and you either throw it hot or you slot, you slide the protection or you're going to escape a certain way. And he's not seeing that in the same way that you know that uh that a top quarterback prospect necessarily

might although a lot of young guys don't anymore because college offenses and i think caleb caleb is good against that because he's just such a freak yeah where like caleb might not even see the blitzer and he still avoids the blitzer he does have man that that and that's that's why Caleb's pressure there's his play under pressure this year is so jarring because okay taking a step back from basically an 80 passing grade last year under pressure I could have seen that coming dropping all the way to a 28.3 passing grade under pressure like that is the plethora of turnover worthy plays every single one of Caleb Williams turnover worthy plays last week against Notre Dame came under pressure every single one of them all four of them and that's the story of

I think the Arizona game was the same it's right I'm just I'm so shocked at how contrast those things are and hopefully plays better under pressure because i don't i don't going into the draft season watching a night and day prospect from 2022 to 2023 is going to be uh tough to evaluate he's going to make uh our jobs tougher if that's the case and you know honestly selfishly i just hope that we get the best version of Caleb Williams moving forward. I hope that he's kind of like learning his lessons. And I wrote this in my article that I had over pff.com. It feels like he's learning the lessons of what he can and can't get away with for the first time. Right. Didn't really have the same thing, you know, like didn't really happen at Oklahoma. He was a true freshman taken over for Spencer Rattler. I mean, he was playing with

house money. He wasn't supposed to start last year. Everything went well for him. So like didn't really happen at Oklahoma. He was a true freshman taking over for Spencer Rattler. I mean, he was playing with house money. He wasn't supposed to start. Last year, everything went well for him. So he didn't really learn that lesson last year. Now he's learning the lesson. We'll see how he is able to bounce back. Before we get into our next quarterback, you know, this time of year, the Paul time of year, it's all about getting back to your routines,

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Price is subject to underwriting and health questions. Where are we going next, Connor? What quarterback do you want to talk about next? I think the guy that had the biggest weekend right michael pennix definitely the biggest win of his career your boy my boy um i felt like a proud draft scout watching this game i like he was he was he man some big time throws in that game and how fun was that man it felt like it really did feel like both him and nicks

were on i know he's played really well like i know they didn't like the scoreboard to the tune of like 52 to 55 final score but like these dudes were on this weekend that was such a fun game to watch it really was and as i always say i'm i'm not a fan of a team in college football. And I felt like in this game, just a fan in this game, because I kept thinking as much as, you know, Bo Nix had a really good game and there was a lot to like about Oregon. It felt like as a fan of the sport, you knew if Penix got the ball back, it was going to be dynamite. It actually happened so fast. I didn't even, I was like, oh man, it was going to be dynamite. It actually happened so fast.

I didn't even, I was like, oh man, we're going to see like, we're going to see a big boy drive here. And instead it was like a blink and it was over. That's how quickly they move. But before we even get into him as a player, did you see the tweet from Jalen McMillan? And it's a clip of Penix freestyling on the sideline during the game? No.

So, if you're wondering how calm and collected- To go full B-Rabbit, eight mile on him? And confident Michael Penix is. Jalen McMillan tweeted out, and there's the clip of it. Penix is literally on the bench. They're losing 33-29, and he is on the bench freestyling to a teammate and then basically comes off the bench and wins the game like it's nothing. But him as a player, it felt like this was the game that this is probably unfair to Penix because

he's been playing like this for two years now for Washington. But it felt like he could not have a bad game here because all eyes were on him. It was a big opponent. It was a good defense. All the arguments against Penix that aren't health related are that he's in a great offense under Ryan Grubb. He throws the great receivers. His offensive line has kept him upright. Those are all fair. Those are all fair.

Those are all fair. That offense also isn't the same without Michael Penix throwing the ball. I would agree. I would agree. You look at this game, five big time throws, five. Two are on the final drive. He got really comfortable after a shaky start when he was getting pressured like crazy. And you start to see the confidence that he throws with.

And I think this is actually a really good exercise. Because Caleb Williams and Drake May are higher quarterback prospects for us, right? Based on projection. Yeah. But if you want to see what an experienced quarterback looks like, Michael Penix had multiple years starting at Indiana, now multiple years starting for Washington. Penix is more advanced in a lot of ways than them from what he does from the pocket. The what he's seeing pre-snap, throwing guys open, throwing down the field with confidence,

understanding when a safety can get there and when a safety can't. Part of the reason he is protected so well is because he avoids sacks himself pre-snap. He knows when they don't have the protection there and the ball needs to be out, and he knows when he can hang in a little longer. Obviously, he's a very different thrower of the football. I mean, this thing explodes out of his hand. It is like watching somebody throw a Nerf Howler.

Right. It's like the RPMs on this thing are are it's a great analogy out of control um i know he doesn't have the escape artist ability that that caleb or drake may have they have a higher ceiling i'm not denying that but i think we are comfortably here that michael pennix is a first round quarterback and i i am still a little puzzled that most people are not to each their own. That's their opinion. No problem with that. But this guy has answered every challenge in front of him

since transferring to Washington and looks like a superstar and is doing so many pro things before and after the snap and just had the biggest win of his college career. It's just the trajectory just keeps going upward that if you don't like him now i don't know what he can do for you at this point yeah um i feel like quarterbacks have been hyped up more for less than what pennix has put out there you know I'm not saying he's perfect.

Right. And I don't think we are. The criticism that I have of him, and I went back and I watched the Arizona game and then I watched the Oregon game. Obviously, he's got a Howard's urban arm. He does have some ball placement issues when he's not like throwing the fastball. Like when he does need to put a little bit more touch on it sometimes his accuracy can be a little bit erratic but i think that's kind

of something that a lot of quarterback prospects deal with and if you don't deal with that at all then okay you're probably getting drafted in the top 10 because touch is a is is is such a natural trait that's really tough to teach when this guy gets the ability to throw a fastball and honestly i think that he'd be perfect for a vertical offense in the nfl level like i think about where bruce arians ran i was just gonna say it and if if if bruce arians was running an offense with michael pennix i mean i think that it would be it would be beautiful. There would be so much production there.

Like I said, I do think the ball placement issues, they do come up when he has to take miles per hour off of the football, when he has to put more air in it, less than more fire um i feel like he's a i feel like he's a a a gunslinger in a duel in an old western film because michael panics has these moments where he hikes the football he's looking to his left he's reading the field and then real quick he looks back to his right and it's like as if the pressure is coming to him very quickly he's kind of i don't know if he does this on purpose because the game is fast and i really i don't really think he's doing it on purpose but it's almost like he waits the last moment and then he just takes the gun out of the holster boom like he

just and the the arm comes up the ball comes out and he fires that bad boy in and when he can throw that fastball he can hit you with 99 miles an hour in the corner of the strike zone. And you got no chance to hit it. And it's just going straight to wide receivers hands. Defenders might be close to them. I mean, they are, man. For as much as I love Romo Dunze, I love Jalen Polk. Like those guys, by nature of them being bigger receivers,

they, a lot of the targets that go to them, less Odunze than Polk, but it's going to be contested catch stuff. It's tight window stuff. And Penick still has so many throws where he's putting heat on it and it's going straight to their hands. So he's got a lot of really great highs.

The touch thing is something to just, I think, monitor. I think it's fair. But man, I mean, even the, the, the, the teardrop 30 yard throw to Polk in the right corner of the, of the end zone. It was in the first half of that game. It's like, you don't get, it doesn't get any better than that.

It's a dream. Get any better than that throw. So it's not like every time he's got to dial the power back. It's a terrible throw it just does show up and i feel like that's the consistency is is when he when he takes those rpms down sometimes the accuracy is a little less where man when you just let him be a fastball pitcher he could be he could be great in a vertical offense so, it'll be interesting to see where he goes and how they tailor things around such a special attacking skill set. Did you watch McCarthy?

Did you watch McCarthy for this? Yeah, I did a tape breakdown for NBC on McCarthy quite a few games into the season, so I'm pretty caught up on McCarthy. Because I think McCarthy's kind of the same way. I think Penix is... Oh, McCarthy is all velocity. Right, I think McCarthy's kind of the same way I think McCarthy is all velocity right I think Penix is is better but McCarthy is the same way where when he when you let him

throw fastball he's got some super impressive throws but when you ask him to dial it back and throw with more touch then you get messed up timing, not as in rhythm. You can kind of tell he's thinking too much. He's not just reacting and letting it go. He's kind of thinking a little too much. And the accuracy can be a little spotty with it. So Penix's deficiencies when he's throwing a different pitch is less than McCarthy's. But I think they're kind of that same mold of player right now where

these are fat. These are gas throwers. And if you let them throw fastball, they'll give you their best. But McCarthy, I did see kind of that similar light. Right. First round arms on both of them. And Penix has taken a first round arm and developed into playing the position. A lot of the things he does that translate to the pros, and that's why I think a lot of people have the same hope for McCarthy who hasn't played as much football. You watch the Bowling Green game for McCarthy, and it's like his brain just shut off. He throws three picks in the Bowling Green game. He hasn't thrown a pick in any other game,

and that was a game that kind of highlighted a lot of his flaws of still a guy that needs to play more. But, you know, fortunately for a Michigan team, like they're going to run over a bowling green and the Rutgers of the world. Some said they've had some slow starts and it's just a great football team. McCarthy.

McCarthy is interesting too, where like panic's the talking point. And I don't agree. I think you could evaluate things in a vacuum is he has best receivers and they're awesome I mean Roma Dunzey has been so impressive to me this year he is so much better than what he is last year yeah McCarthy I think the talking point is he's got a great offensive line and running backs right like a run game and a line that really really can protect him and not have not task him

with being a hero yet. So you can only evaluate the things that, you know, are, are examples of like he McCarthy has some throws the first half of the season where he's dropping back opposite hash and throwing outside the numbers. And I mean, the, the ball sizzling on the way, it's just like the arms are up and the ball just sticks to the receiver's hands and um roman wilson catches everything which makes that you know a really good match he can handle all those fastballs like the heat is at applebee's baby it's coming out sizzling comes out sizzling hot you get they tell you don't touch the dish when they put it down in front of you they do they do tell you that yeah Yeah. Yeah. Only professionals can touch it. Only professionals can touch a JJ McCarthy. Oh, man.

I used to love that move when I was a waiter. It's like you come out and the plate sizzling. You put it down in front of them. You're like, don't touch that. It's hot. It's right out of the kitchen. Then you smile and walk away and feel like, ooh. It's like the let's like the line.

That's what you're. Yeah. They're paying you basically to just hear that. It's like the let's like the line. That's what you're, they're paying you basically to just hear that line. It's how they know. Yeah, I thought that McCarthy, his scouting report's kind of similar from the beginning of the year.

His season, and I don't mean to be disrespectful when I say this, but like his season begins November 11th. But you're right. I feel like I've learned nothing since week three about him. And I will say this.

He looks better. I'm not taking anything away. But I'm just going to sit here and say, hey, he looks better against teams that they're kicking the shit out of by 40 every single week. He's not doing dumb things besides the Bowling Green game. Right. I am giving him his credit. But November 11th, they play Penn State. The week after, they play Maryland.

The week after that, they play Ohio State uh they'll play the big 10 championship and then we assume that this team's going to be in the college world playoff so that's jj mccarthy scouting evaluation season right there um where we're next where you want to go next who's next i'm debating if we want to do a really positive one or you know more of a a downer one it's uh let's leave it to you let's do the positive one okay um and then i'll read an ad and then people got to stick around after the ad to hear who might be on the downs so i caught up on jayden daniels this week finally and when jayden daniels got to arizona state that was a time in my life that like right i'm trying to think what year it was i want to go all the way back and make sure i have this right it was a while ago was it 2019 or 20 2019 it must have

been 2019 yeah freshman starter started 12 games had a really nice freshman year that was definitely still a time in my life where i feel like i would like go out at some point on saturday and come home and pack 12 after dark of course not yeah i'm like and it's the best thing in the world you come home you got a nice little buzz you're like great football still on yeah and this kid was food you ordered yeah oh yeah it's absolute garb just bulldozing garbage in your mouth it's i'm growing up now um yeah we'd never do that now i'd never do that ever again never do that now it's like get ready to make burgers after this i mean and he was so impressive that year because you know the freshman

hype and he's an electric player and all these things and and you and you know, a lot of, he's had a windy road. Um, and now he's in his fifth season. He's been at LSU for two years and he, there's a lot of refinement, honestly, Trevor for him in his game, like a quarterbacking, not athleeting and with a big arm. And the things that jumped out to me from watching him this year is he looks

really comfortable attacking down the field from the pocket, like really comfortable, really seeing it well. I'll pull back up his passing numbers again in a little bit here because the passing depth numbers are just so impressive. And a couple more notes on him. I mean, he's getting better, but there's still a big drop-off when pressured. He has four turnover-worthy plays on 34 at passing attempts when pressured. So a little chaotic there, but he'll throw his guys open when he sees the coverage has

their back turned. And that to me is experience. Like this is a guy that started a lot of college football games. He's played in two conferences. He there's certain things where I'm like, OK, this is somebody that's seeing it. So I love seeing that. The deep ball can have a little too much air sometimes, but it's a lethal part of his game. I mean, 21 for 33, almost 800 yards, 24.2 yards per attempt, 13 touchdowns, no picks.

The back pylon throws where he has to throw a touch and drop it in the bucket are gorgeous. I mean, he has mastered dropping in those bucket throws to the back pylon. And this guy is a very elusive runner. I mean, he makes guys miss in a phone booth all the time. You're like, how the hell did he get out of that and pick up 8 yards, 12 yards, 14 yards? There is something, a theme of the show you will hear is runner, scrambler, pocket passer. Jaden Daniels can be a runner, and that is really exciting to me. But the deep passing from the pocket is the biggest area of growth I've seen from him. Daniels is somebody who has steadily

climbed up the big board for me. I mean, I don't know if I'm going to have him as a first round prospect eventually, but he is one of those guys that, like we talked about at the top of the show, this is a developmental player. This is somebody that I would take on day two and say, man, he'd be a runner for you. He'd be a dual threat. He'd be a scrambler. He can operate RPO stuff and be a legit threat.

He's now improving his play down the field. I mean, last year, you could tell his goal was, I'm taking care of the football. I'm not. He had one of the lowest turnover-worthy play rates down the field. I mean, last year, you could tell his goal was, I'm taking care of the football. I'm not, he had one of the lowest turnover-worthy play rates in the country. This year, you could tell he is challenging himself. Okay, a little more big-time throws. The turnover-worthy play rate isn't as low as it was last year,

but it's still relatively low compared to how big of a jump he has taken with those big-time throws. So he's got two guys in Brian Thomas Jr. Malik neighbors who are good future NFL receivers he's thrown to, but he's, he's getting the football around to those guys in really great situations. So Daniels, I am glad that you brought him up because I would have as well. He is somebody who has really improved every single year and to see steady growth from a player tells you hey maybe that ceiling is not maybe we haven't reached that ceiling yet if you get better every single year because I think a lot

of people probably thought about Jaden Daniels and what he was at Arizona State and what he was going to be at LSU and the ceiling was probably pretty low for him and each year that ceiling has been like all right well he's taking care of the football a lot better so that's good all right well he's making better decisions down the field. All right. Well, now the big time throws her up. He needs to stop taking unnecessary hits because it seems like this guy's getting hits every single week.

Yeah. I got like nervous a couple of times. I know, dude. I was like, whoa. Other than that, though, Daniels is great. He is somebody who I think I moved up into my top 50 uh in my recent and you will be in my recent update so he's he's somewhere in those high 40s and that's a player that to me you take a chance on sometime in day two uh i mentioned the ad this this podcast is

brought to you by our friends over at prize picks we gave you two prize pick selections entries in the Monday show, but just in case you guys missed it, I got Lamar versus Detroit. More than 45.5 rushing yards. And I also have put my mortgage, please don't do that, anybody out there, on Cooper Cup, more than 97.5 receiving yards against the Steelers, aging and not performing well cornerbacks this year. So that's what I got. Connor, what are your two price picks this week? I'm looking at the bills.

I like James Cook to have less than 53.5 rushing yards against the Patriots. I think they are going to beef up some touches to other players. And I think New England will, you know, be able to contain him. That's a pretty high number for a guy that's somewhat in a committee and a pass happy offense. But good news, Bills fans. I like Stefan Diggs to have more than 86 and a half receiving yards. I've actually seen this number go up on

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We're not proud of it. Maybe going the wrong direction. Who is it? We talked. Cam Ward. And this is an interesting one. So we love getting involved in the comments in the community. And I get it.

A lot of people, a lot of people that listen to the show are or were really excited about Cam Ward. And admittedly, he's not somebody I had been studying much of, besides watching broadcasts at College Football, but actually tape studying in this quarterback class. It's a very crowded group. You catch up eventually, and I did. Ken Ward's interesting, Trevor. I think that he's an exciting, effective player

in his college offense, that there are a lot of things that worry me in terms of translation. And what I mean by that is a lot of production from throwing behind the line of scrimmage and in the short area, but the intermediate game does look sharp when utilized, but there's no deep passing game. I mean, he's 10 for 24 on 20 plus yard passes, the deep passing game. And when he throws the deep ball, it's really just all touch throws. Like he's not going to drive the ball down the field, in my opinion, consistently, especially at the next level.

I saw him as a changeup thrower, not a power pitcher and you could be that in colleges you could yeah it's almost like i do the met spot weekly um who's throwing a splitter it's just the football is just going the other direction dying down to the ground i mean somebody's throwing a football like mariano rivera where it's like images in between the two. Why did that move? Yeah, a knuckleball. Not a good idea in football. I just wonder, can he consistently drive the ball outside the numbers? And in this offense, I don't really think he has to be this power pitcher. I don't think he needs to be this guy that is throwing a crazy velocity. Like you watch

Pennix, right? Pennix is the perfect example of somebody that grub draws up the offense. And he's like, the defense has to account for every layer of the field, opposite hash, the deep middle, like there is nothing out of the arsenal and he will throw it. He will absolutely challenge the far side of the field and all that with cam ward i think it kind of goes the other way where it's a little bit more limited i'll say this too yes he only has three interceptions on the season he is really living good right now with some luck he has eight turnover worthy i was gonna say he only has three picks i think he only has three picks on the season and the crazy thing is he has eight turnover worthy plays in the last two games.

Two games. Yeah, that's what shocks me. He doesn't let plays die all the time. He gets away with it. But yeah, three interceptions, 14 touchdowns, three interceptions on the season. So back to the notes. More of a, this is maybe the most disappointing part to me because I've seen guys that are going to play,

you know, more of the timing, short to intermediate game, maybe not really challenged down the field, maybe not challenge all areas of the field, but they have a dimension of their game as a runner that can kind of make up for that and give them a chance to be that long-term backup and develop into a starter or whatever it may be. He's a scrambler, not a runner.

It's effective. He can get you the free yards. He can make a guy miss. He can extend plays. But this wasn't like watching Jaden Daniels where it's missed tackle there, missed tackle there. Oh, I made a guy miss, now eight yards. I can make the next guy miss at the sticks 10 yards like it was to me it was more scrambling his numbers fall off a cliff when he's pressured like he's and he's in big trouble when he's pressured so not to pile on cam ward he's going

to get drafted i'm not saying the guy is undraftable player or anything like that, but in this class, in this class, like watching all of these guys and then getting the cam ward, I was like, man, it's going to be tough this year. Yeah. I mean, we, we've had a handful of people in the comments, I think over the last month that have mentioned cam ward and kind of wanting to get our opinions on them. And we've had some people even tweet out. I stopped, had a couple of Instagram DMS about people want our thoughts mentioned cam ward and kind of wanting to get our opinions on them and we've had some people even tweet at us i've had a couple of instagram dms about people want our thoughts on cam ward and um i hate to let the people down but we would be good doing you guys a disservice

if we didn't tell you exactly how we felt about a player i think cam ward's the long way away from being a successful pro i agree with a lot of the things that you said. He has some nice plays, but to me, they're very few and far between when you talk about actual difference-making plays where he himself is truly elevating the people around him. You mentioned he's only got three. The 14-3 touchdown-to-interception ratio is crazy to me because he's got eight big-time throws, but he's got 13 turnover- plays that's not a good ratio i watched those last two games that he played over the last couple of weeks and it's not great you mentioned a lot of the turnover worthy plays that he has i mean that ucla game was rough for him it was a lot of bad accuracy

it was a lot of bad decisions i don't even sometimes i i really question how he even sees the field like how he's seeing coverages because it looks like he knows what the play is and he kind of goes into it thinking okay here's my hot read this is my one my my primary read on this play and if the primary read isn't open it's almost like you can then see him kind of panic a little bit. He's not a great quarterback right now under pressure. And I think a lot of stuff starts to fail once he gets off rhythm. There are times, especially in that UCLA game, where his feet just stop moving. Like completely.

As if they're in quicksand. And because of that, you see a lot of accuracy issues with him when he's thrown to the sideline. And I thought there was some touch issues with him as well. You know, he could put a ton of arc on a moon ball, but like, again, you can't be doing that stuff at the next level. It's going to be easy pickings for cornerbacks and safeties to run under it and intercept it.

So I know a lot of you guys love Cam Ward. Hey, if you love picking them in the mock draft simulator and you like getting them late for the team and getting them as a developmental guy, more power to you. Keep doing it. I just think he's got a long way to go before he is any sort of difference maker at the NFL level. And that's kind of the way that I saw him over the last couple of games. Unfortunately, I do want to talk about these guys before we wrap up but it is on the more disappointing side still riley leonard and michael pratt have been disappointing over the last couple of weeks i know riley leonard has missed some time with the ankle

injury but i missed it too i watched too yeah well pratt missed some time after that uh i think it was a knee injury it's a knee injury he two weeks. First game where he could not miss. I know. He was surgical. Pratt could not miss in that first game. It was unbelievable. He's a sniper. And I've gone back and I watched the last two games that he played.

Very different. I agree. Do you think he's hurt? I didn't think he looked confident driving on the knee. He certainly does not look confident, but the knee that he hurt is not the back foot. It's not the knee. It's the front one.

It's the front one, which I'm not saying that doesn't have anything to do with it. He's still wearing a brace. He's coming back from the injury. Maybe it has a lot to do with it because he's just missing dudes right now. Him and Leonard, it's the same story these are guys who have really nice throws but it just doesn't happen enough the consistency is not there with these guys leonard i even thought that going into the season where the way that we talked about him is man if he if last year was a foundation for Leonard so many beautiful touch

throws you know great play under pressure adapting to guys kind of hanging all over him and him happened to throw at a different arm like there were moments where Leonard firing it to the sideline you know 20 15 20 yards down the field on a rope where I'm like, that's an NFL throw. If that was going to be the foundation and he was going to build on that this year, Leonard basically would have been in that conversation as a first round pick. It's not. I mean, the consistency has not shown up for him yet. It is still a lot of misses. I mean, just straight up misses when we're talking about deep down the field.

And sometimes it's beautiful touch passes. And sometimes he just straight up misses when we're talking about deep down the field. And sometimes it's beautiful touch passes. And sometimes he just, he doesn't have the accuracy. So you got to look at a guy in the full picture. And for as much as I love the flashes and the talent of both Michael Pratt and Riley Leonard, I have to be honest with the fact that these were guys who I thought could one day be first round quarterbacks and there's a lot of season left to go but as of right now I would move both of those guys firmly into that developmental day two kind of camp so that's that's where I am on both of those players who a lot of high hopes on going into the year and certainly after that first week

and kind of cooled on that because of their tape over the last couple of weeks. Yeah, I get it. I am a big believer in Leonard's talent. Obviously, we'll see what he does coming back from the injury. I totally, we're eye to eye on that. Like week one, I was like, yeah, this dude, everything we saw from summer is real. And since he's been back, you know what really sucked too? Isn't one of the games he missed wouldn't have been against Ole Miss? I'm pretty sure.

He missed the NC State game. Okay, so he missed two big games. Those are the kind of games when you look at a guy like Pratt. Tulane's a good program, don't get me wrong. But you look at a game like that. Oh, never mind. Sorry, I thought you were talking about Leonard. No, no, no, Pratt. Yeah, he did miss the did miss the old miss game yeah like that's a game i want to see

him in and obviously you can't control getting hurt in the injury but it's it was i was like damn man like that's a that's a big opportunity for a guy like you um so we'll see what he does the rest of the way i think that i'll pull up my notes here on some of the stuff that i saw from him i wrote same like cam ward he could scramble but he's not necessarily a lethal threat as a runner um he a decent amount of screens in quick game versus memphis when they came out of the gate so they were probably trying to get him comfortable he just wasn't driving the ball like we've seen him do before like to just, and you, like you said, Trevor, I viewed him at a summer as an accuracy, rhythm, and timing quarterback. And none of those things have been clicking since he came back.

I know, I know, I know. Just makes you wonder. Two guys that I'm glad that we have a handful more games to evaluate them because I really like the high-end stuff from these players i like the tools i like the the ceiling of what they can be but the consistency just has not been there for either of them so we'll see what leonard can be once he comes back from that ankle injury and hopefully both of those guys get healthy going into the end of the year because i'd love to see them and on a high note show us their best ball ball and obviously put out some good tape for some

better scouting notes. You got anybody else that you want to shout out before we get out of here? I want to ask you because there are maybe the most varied opinions on this guy out of everyone. Like he's probably a top three quarterback for some people. Where do you have Quinn Ewers right now? Very comfortably as a day two developmental quarterback okay we see eye to eye on that one yeah he's i'm not even like he wouldn't even be in my top 50 today he's not in my

top 50 no he's outside of my top 50 look huge arm but it's it's it's erratic man i mean you got it you can't the alabama game he hit so many deep shots and again, wow, it's fixed. It's that game is kind of an outlier for him right now. The accuracy, the ball placement, it's not where it needs to be for years. I've said on this very show before. One of the best arms that I have watched in recent memory, like the way that this guy can fire the football off of his wrist at really weird angles in really unorthodox ways is pretty crazy. And we've seen some guys who I'm not saying he's got like a better arm than

Anthony Richardson or something, but the way that you were, can just like have the ball right here and just go and just flick it 20 yards down the field on a rope. It's just different than a lot of guys in this class. And so understand the allurement. And I think a player like Ewers is going to get plenty of chances to start at the NFL level. to me, he is still a good ways away from having that consistency with his ball placement and with his accuracy to start at the NFL level. And that's where I am with him. I definitely call him a developmental guy right now. He is somebody that has a fascinating process in front of him

because he's got Arch Manning behind him. He's got to go, right? He has to declare. If he declares, he's entering a quarterback class where in our humble opinions, he's facing an uphill battle. Like, I don't think he's a top five quarterback in this class. You have him on day two. He's not in your top 50. He's not my top 50. Right.

So is Quinn Ewers got to go the transfer route? We'll see. We'll see. I don't know. Which is crazy to say about someone with that talent at a program that's you know a good fit for him he'll go to usc i'm sure that's a good idea i would advise that if i was his right hand man i would say go play for lincoln he just goes from ohio state to texas to usc that's any kid's dream, man. Good for him.

If he does it, I would, you know what? Salute, salute to somebody who could work the system like that. But yeah, that's, those are my thoughts on yours.

We'd love to hear you guys' thoughts as well. Let us know what you think on this quarterback class. We know that you got takes, you got cam war takes. If you want to come at us with the cam war takes, we are, we're all ears for it. Hit us up in the comments,

youtube.com backslash at NFL stock exchange. The best way to do it. Let us know what you think of this quarterback class from your own perspective, from some of the points that we brought up, whether you agree with them, whether you don't agree with them, we would love to hear all that good stuff. We're brought to you today by manscape,

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Use the promo code PFF for a look as sweet as candy this year. Get yourself the handyman from our friends over at Manscaped. If you are Instagram or a Twitter user only, if you don't do YouTube, you can hit us up at TampaBayTray at ConnorJRogers. That's the best way to do it. Connor, somebody said, I think it was on Twitter, when are you guys going to weekly mock drafts again? They must have heard what you said last week.

You were like, when we need to get some numbers up, when we need to pump the quota up, we're just going to do back-to-back mock drafts. When my power goes out. Oh, man. I don't think, we're not at the point where we're doing weekly mock drafts. No, no, no, no. There's not enough not enough substance no not

yet not yet not monthly monthly for sure uh are we doing what matters most on monday we're doing something else sure bye week for your boy so oh yeah well it's your okay hold on bye week i'm fine i gotta i'm still gonna watch football i'm not going to the bahamas yeah so am i but maybe we'll cook up But maybe we'll cook up something. Maybe we'll cook up something different. Conners, bye week, Monday, extravaganza. I don't know what we're going to do. I like where this is going.

We keep the people on their toes. Maybe like mid-season awards or something. Maybe we could look back at the rookie class and how the rookies are doing. You might be on to something. It's so funny to me. And once again, clearly Trevor and I read the comments, which is the first thing they ever tell you to not do when you host the show. And I, for good reason.

But with a week, we didn't do what matters most. 80% of the comments freaked out that we didn't do what matters most. And this week when we did what matters most, I saw like three comments that were like, I listen to you guys to talk about the draft. I was like, I don't know. I don't know what to do. So whatever, you know.

That's why we're doing something different for Monday. That's why we're totally switching up. I kind of like the rookie. I do too. I do too. Pour some out for Anthony Richardson, whose season comes to an end. And can't wait to see him back on the field. But there are a lot of guys playing at a high level right now. No, there are.

And some guys deserve recognition. And maybe we'll go down kind of the first couple of rounds and look at some rookies that are making some high impact. So that might be a fill-in for what matters most. So we can give you a little bit of a combined NFL coverage and draft coverage. Boom. Can't say shit about it. I'm Trevor Sykema.

That's Connor Rogers. Thank you guys so much for listening to the NFL Stock Exchange Podcast. Whatever it is, we'll see you on Monday. Thank you.