NFL Stock Exchange: An NFL Draft Podcast - 255. Ranking 2025 Quarterbacks (Summer Scouting)

Episode Date: June 4, 2024

Trevor Sikkema and Connor Rogers kick off their Summer Scouting Series and coverage of the 2025 NFL Draft by ranking the draft-eligible quarterbacks for 2025. The duo talk about the strengths and weak...nesses of their top 10 guys with early player comps and round grades.Trevor Sikkema and Connor Rogers kick off their Summer Scouting Series and coverage of the 2025 NFL Draft by ranking the draft-eligible quarterbacks for 2025. The duo talk about the strengths and weaknesses of their top 10 guys with early player comps and round grades.

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Starting point is 00:00:00 This episode is brought to you by our good friends at NFL Sunday Ticket on YouTube TV. I'm sure by now you've all got back into your Sunday routines, but they could be even better. With NFL Sunday Ticket and YouTube TV, you get the most live NFL games all in one place, every game, every Sunday. And you can even watch up to four different games at once with MultiView, one of my favorite inventions of this decade. It's exactly what you need to catch all the action. Make your Sundays more magical. And also, YouTube TV is great. I got it this year.
Starting point is 00:00:37 It's awesome. Sign up now at youtube.com slash BS, device and content restrictions apply. Local and national games on YouTube TV. NFL Sunday ticket for out-of-market games excludes digital-only games. Welcome to the opening bell of the NFL Stock Exchange exchange podcast i am trevor sikama that is connor rogers and welcome to the 2025 chapter of nfl stock exchange connor i'm very excited man we have not heard from the people in a long long time guys it has been so long i moved into a new place as you can see by my plain ass background i'm working on it calm down i can already see
Starting point is 00:01:20 the comments right now calm down we're held're getting there. Held hostage, basically. Blink if Graham Mertz is not QB1. He might not be far off, but we'll get into that in the episode. Look, I'm in a new house. Connor's got a new marriage. Not that he had an old marriage, but he's got a new marriage. He's got a new wife. Look, I know that for sure because I was there.
Starting point is 00:01:42 Hell yeah. It wasn't a joke. It wasn't a facade. It wasn't just a tax write-off. I was actually there. I was there. Hell yeah. It wasn't a joke. It wasn't a facade. It wasn't just a tax write-off. I was actually there. I saw it. You sure? Actually, they all could have been hired actors.
Starting point is 00:01:53 I don't know. I don't really know how far you would go to see the IRS. But anyways, dude, you had the marriage. You had your honeymoon. We're all settled in now. We took a couple of weeks off, a little bit longer of an extended break than we normally do, but hopefully you guys can understand what the circumstance is. Now we are back with a vengeance for summer scouting.
Starting point is 00:02:12 We're doing it with the quarterback episode, kicking it off with a bang. Connor, before we get into it, my friend, how you doing, dude? How you been? Never been better. I am so happy to be back. I've thought about the recording of this episode for days, because we've been watching the quarterbacks now for a while, so we, we knew this would be a big one. And like after watching the quarterbacks, it's bigger than I thought with the amount of varying opinions there will be on this group. And it's, it's been a fun month. Sure. Like absolutely apologies to everybody that's been wondering where we've been. I totally get it. We don't Trevor and I never take
Starting point is 00:02:43 a month off from anything. So it was definitely, it was probably a pretty long month. There was some quick business things that had to be settled, and that didn't take too long. I had to get married. I had to go on a honeymoon. It was awesome having you and Alyssa there. And now we're refreshed and back. And the thing with this is, it's not like we could have came back two weeks ago because we need to watch all these guys. This took a long time. That was the issue. It was it was like man I got a lot of homework to do as soon as I got home dude normally when we do summer scouting and I feel like we're getting every every year we do this I feel like we get a little bit more of a groove but still outside of wide receivers well maybe we can do summer scouting like you and I'll get I don't know six to eight guys in, and we'll be like, all right, we've probably seen everybody
Starting point is 00:03:25 we need to. I watched 15 quarterbacks. I got 15 quarterbacks ranked for this upcoming class. To build off of the conversations that people were having last year, you looked at a lot of the desperation to move up and maybe some quarterbacks getting overdrafted in the 2024 draft. A lot of people were like, well, these teams have done some future scouting and they see 2025 and it's not nearly as good at the top. It's not a star studded at the top, but damn, there's a lot of these guys. Like there's a lot of what if quarterback prospects
Starting point is 00:03:55 in this class. And you and I were talking a little bit before we hit record. We know the master list of players that each of us have watched. I have no idea what your rankings are. Absolutely no clue. So this is gonna be fun for me to sit down and actually hear who you got as
Starting point is 00:04:11 well. I was joking with you before we turned the mics back on and boy, were they dusty. I was like, dude, I'm nervous for this one nervous. And because it could just, it could be so different,
Starting point is 00:04:22 but that's, that's the fun of it. I think that's what makes this year. It is so different from last year. That's all I kept thinking every time I finished writing up a guy was, wow, like last year it was very cut and dry. And yes, we had a huge surprise in Jay Daniels as a riser. That happens every year.
Starting point is 00:04:40 That'll probably happen this year in some capacity, maybe not up to the second overall pick. But it's just so different i wrote down i for the top 10 i wouldn't call them tears but like notes for each group like a one-liner for each group to put it in perspective and it's uh yeah it's gonna be a wild ride that's all i could say it's but it feels good to be back that's the most important thing dude i'm so excited to dig into this. I was talking with the editing team over at PFF, and we're trying to ramp up the draft coverage that we do anyways. We're trying to give you guys a lot more information as you're going to use the mock draft simulator, which by the way,
Starting point is 00:05:16 we've turned it over to 2025. So if you guys are listening to these episodes throughout the summer and you want to get into some mock drafts, you can absolutely do so over at pff.com backslash draft. And what we want to do is, you know, when you click on those players, I actually want to have summer scouting blurbs on a lot of these guys and we'll have some recruiting background as well. And part of that is as I'm going through this, this summer, I normally don't do this as early. I have some early player comps for a lot of these guys as well. So I'll mention those throughout the quarterback episode and kind of as we go through the summer and things like that. But I just wanted you guys to look forward to that stuff.
Starting point is 00:05:48 A lot of what, at least some of the information I'll talk about will be on pff.com as you guys use the mock draft simulator and all that good stuff. So because we watch so many quarterbacks, we decided to expand normally what we do. Typically for summer scouting, we give you our top fives. And we'll probably do that for most of the other positions. I don't know, maybe we'll adopt this format as the main.
Starting point is 00:06:10 But normally we do like the top fives, and we'll talk about some of the guys that just missed the top fives. We feel like to do the quarterback class justice going into the season, we're going to give you 10 through 6, kind of talk about those guys, maybe tree tops, some of the things that we like, and then really dig into 5 through 1 and kind of count down who we have as QB1 individually going into the class. So, Connor, you want to kick it off here, my friend? I know
Starting point is 00:06:32 this is an honor, but it's also a pressure to hear which names are going to come out of your mouth here for 10 through six, but you can read them off to me and then you can kind of dig into whoever you want. I just can't stop thinking about since you said because i didn't know the mock draft machine has flipped over 2025 how you can now log on and sell the farm for grayson mccall if you want to you can offer three ones and go up and get grayson mccall i didn't even watch grayson yeah i watched he was one of the lightest ones for me 15 quarterbacks and i still didn't get to mccall is one that i still have to watch um dylan gabriel is one that i still have to watch but it's same for me yep kyron drones is maybe the most notable one that i didn't get to that's a fake name you
Starting point is 00:07:16 made that up yeah i need to watch that's a madden creative player i i don't, I'm calling you on that one. College football, 25. Oh, will we be bamboozled by a Madden skin? No, no, no, it's going to be good. It's going to be good. I saw our guy,
Starting point is 00:07:35 our guy Bengal. Cause he's, you know, it's pretty important person. He went down there and got, you know, kind of got the inside scoop, a little demo.
Starting point is 00:07:43 And he had a lot of positive thoughts. And I, I, I take his word. And I don't think they're paying bengal i really don't and bengal is also a man of the people and he has been very critical of madden as a lot of exactly that's why i take his words yeah and so he's super excited about it you know i don't know if we'll be able to do it this summer but uh there might be an nflse dynasty league in the future it'd be awesome with college football that would be awesome so okay let's get into it we got 10 through 6 all right 10 through 6 number 10 for me is alabama's jalen milrow all right oh hot reaction out of the gate no i just number number 10 like you the reason why is because people have Milrow as a number one overall.
Starting point is 00:08:26 Oh, yeah, I know. Right? I know. So you having him at 10 elicited that reaction. Yeah, the comment section already despises me. I've been back for seven minutes and 50 seconds, and they absolutely hate my guts. Thank you, everyone.
Starting point is 00:08:41 Number nine, Donovan Smith on Houston. Okay. He's very interesting. Yep eight noah fafita on arizona yeah he's wildly interesting yeah for very very obvious reasons he's a he's a small fella but he could throw the football he's a small lad but number seven, Jackson Dart on Ole Miss, who is a very popular name right now. And a guy I see that just hovers right around this range, I feel like, or will hover around this range. Number six, maybe the biggest surprise for people,
Starting point is 00:09:14 and you have to dig deep, because he didn't get a lot of a season last year, unfortunately. And some of his injuries, unfortunately, are lingering into Notre Dame's spring ball, but it's Riley Leonard. Oh, that's not that's not what I thought you were going to. Oh, I kind of pulled the rug out from under you with the injury stuff. Yes.
Starting point is 00:09:33 Oh, I know. I know who you're thinking of. Hold on, partner. Oh, OK. Hold on, partner. Can I fast forward the episode that we haven't even recorded yet just to get to whatever you're teasing right there? I do remember drunkenly going up to you at my wedding late in the night and saying, man, I hope Riley Leonard becomes something. At my own wedding.
Starting point is 00:09:56 There were times. And that was like, yeah, we had the reception, obviously. We had the cocktail hour. We had the entrances, everything. We were eating dinner. The dance floor was bumping, drinks are flowing and i do remember it was like i don't know 10 10 30 p.m or whatever you come over and you're like right i i really hope riley leonard this is gonna be something and i was like brother you just got married man like i love you for i can't shake it i can't quit it yeah so riley leonard makes it to six um so i'll read my one-liners in in the buckets for
Starting point is 00:10:26 these guys so i kept uh 10 and 9 jalen milrow and donovan smith in the same tier and i wrote roller coasters with no emergency brake uh noah fafita had in his own tier i just wrote can he overcome historic size limitations i mean they listed him 510", so let's say he's 5'9 and a quarter. We'll get into his film because I know we are going to talk about him together. I had Jackson Dart in his own tier. I just wrote, we might have something here, but he's still too inconsistent. It's a lot of highs and lows. And then Riley Leonard in his own tier too. I just wrote, is he healthy and how will this new situation further his development? Because you watch the glimpses in Duke's offense last year, it was bad. And a lot of that Duke's offense
Starting point is 00:11:10 was besides Graham Barton, nothing really looked very good and he gets hurt. It's lingering. But in 2022, I thought Leonard had like pro flashes where I'm like, that's something you're going to do in the pros. He he's a really, really talented runner and athlete with an interesting athletic background. But I kind of want to know your 10 to 6, I guess, before we cross-conversate on a lot of these guys. Yeah, so I'll go 11 to 6 because I think that it's topical because I have Riley Leonard at 11.
Starting point is 00:11:41 So Leonard is 11 for me. Noah Fafita is 10. Okayovan Smith is nine. Jackson Dart is eight. Wow. Quinn Ewers is seven. And then Jalen Milrow is six for me. Okay. So I'm actually surprised how many similar names we had in the bucket. I am too, because you still have to say Ewer's name. Yes. And I don't think he's going to be outside of your top 10. No, he's not.
Starting point is 00:12:15 That means that I think I have someone within my top five that is not in your top 10. Possibly. I think so. I mean, to put it in perspective, I saw like my three out and I yeah you said we said at the top there's a couple guys we haven't watched but a couple of my outside guys looking in like Drew Allard didn't make my top 10 but he was right there I have him 13 right yeah he didn't make my top 10 he's just not accurate enough man no he's not and man at the end of the
Starting point is 00:12:43 season like he started to melt down against big opponents and it when it got ugly it got as ugly as it can get so so get so get this about drew allard right and i'll say a little bit about him because i know people love him they're gonna want to hear about him that's why i brought him up former five-star prospect he's six foot five 240 pounds it's 89th percentile and 93rd percentile for the position i mean he is a he's he was he was a five-star quarterback in the 2022 class. I mean, he was the number one quarterback in that year. He was the number three overall player.
Starting point is 00:13:12 He was Ohio's Mr. Football as a senior. Like he, this dude just truly looks like a future NFL quarterback. The numbers don't really back it up. Now, Penn State's offense, not the best. It's tough. It's tough, folks. It's tough. But even with that being the case, his individual play still was not really,
Starting point is 00:13:37 like it's still a long way to go for Drew Allard. I was looking up because in the process of doing some more background information and recruiting information to give you guys when you click on the mock draft machine, I looked up some other sports a lot of these guys played. So probably to no one's surprise, he was a baseball player said, as a pitcher growing up, I either struck batters out or I walked them. There was like no in between. And that's exactly how he plays quarterback right now. You're either getting a beautiful pass with NFL starting caliber zip and velocity right where it needs to go, or it's not where it needs, like it's nowhere close to its target it's he is way to that the way that he described how he was as a pitcher growing up to me is still how he plays quarterback and he just he just was not accurate enough for me to put him above some of
Starting point is 00:14:36 these guys even in a uh less less top tier and more like deep quarterback class. He still was 13 for me. That's how I feel. One of my lines that I pull out from my sheet was he gets caught aiming rather than throwing at times and you just completely loses control. It's almost bizarre where he's really so locked in and doesn't have control of the ball and it's just trying to aim it. And it doesn't look pretty, but he's a really young player. I think he did some good things. I want to see how he can develop this year and find his way into this group. Should we talk about Milrow out of the gate? Because he's maybe the most interesting player on the entire show,
Starting point is 00:15:16 if we want to be honest. Yeah, so you got him at nine, and I got him at six. I think I had him at ten. I had him at ten. I had Donovan Smith at nine right ahead of him. But I had them in the same bucket, like very, very similar tier to me. What are the odds to go number one overall right now? Because Milrow is, I guess he's not, I mean, he's not high.
Starting point is 00:15:38 He's plus 3,500. Okay, he's lower than I thought that he was going to be. Drew Aller's plus 1,900? There's some buzz for Aller as a round one prospect. Cam Ward's plus 1,700? The number one overall in the draft. Yes. Are there odds to just not be a quarterback?
Starting point is 00:15:58 Because I'd literally sell the house I just bought and put all the money on that. Cam Ward has the fifth highest odds, according to FanDuel right now, to go number one overall. Dude, I have Cam Ward ranked 12th. Do you? Okay, that's going to be fun because I have Cam Ward fifth. Whoa! Okay.
Starting point is 00:16:17 We'll get there, though. So I have two players in my top five that I don't think you have. Yeah, top five is going to be really interesting. Okay, let's talk about Milrow. What do you think about Milrow? Man, he has some of the best throws in this entire draft class on tape. I mean, I really, really mean it. Big time, arm strength, easy velocity, mobility that makes him such a dangerous scrambler that when the play breaks down with that arm and the scrambling, he can push the ball vertical off the scramble. I didn't see that with a ton of guys in this group.
Starting point is 00:16:49 He is a very fearless player. And that leads to, like I said at the top, some of the best throws you will see in this entire quarterback class. And I like the clutch factor. I mean, he made clutch plays against Auburn and Georgia. The speed is straight line explosive speed. Where it becomes problematic, Trevor, I mean, this is a guy that had double digit fumbles in 2023. Yeah. He took 44 sacks on 384 dropbacks. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:17:17 He has no idea where the blitz is coming from. Like if it's a blitz or not a blitz, it just seems like it's the same thing to him every time. I didn't think he had great feel for pressure i thought he loses accuracy and touch when he doesn't follow through on his throws and keep his base in sync he falls into this habit of like it's just all arm because he's gifted he's one of the most gifted quarterbacks in college football as an athlete as a thrower as the actual quarterback and we have seen guys that are very physically gifted think of drake may last year
Starting point is 00:17:46 they are so physically gifted that they can get away with certain things and create bad habits at times the timing and the route communication with his wide receivers will drive you crazy if you just watch full games in a row like there's times with jermaine burton where jermaine burton's looking at him like dude what like no so that stood out to me um the ball placement on intermediate passes like he doesn't see defenders that kind of flood the field he had seven turnover worthy plays in the 10 to 19 yard range and only 65 attempts so there wasn't a ton of these intermediate attempts but there's a lot of turnover worthy plays he just needs to understand when it's okay to check it down.
Starting point is 00:18:26 Like if they're showing you heavy. He will not check the ball down, right? Dude, which is such a simple thing. When they're showing you heavy pressure and he needs to start seeing that, just understand your running back is going to be wide open in the flat and let him do the work. This guy is really gifted. I am not going to say this about a lot of players on this show today.
Starting point is 00:18:46 He can genuinely play himself into being a first-round player. But if I was giving a preseason grade, and I don't have a first-round grade on any quarterback we talk about today coming into the preseason. No, I don't either. Not a single one. So I think that kind of gives people a lot of clarity. But if the draft was today for Jalen Milrow,
Starting point is 00:19:03 he's a fourth-round developmental guy. So the pendulum can swing so far in two different directions for this guy he if you mentioned he's he's so gifted and Milrow is very difficult to understand like where do I place him and the highs alone that I saw from him last year led me to having him at number six because I was in between having him again like at six or nine or ten and it's just there I mean there's there's reasons to have him basically anywhere in the top 10 but Milrow's got some nuts numbers and what's he had by far the highest big time throw percentage of any of the 15 quarterbacks that i write it's crazy far he he i think his big time throw percentage is like 9.5 and a half it's a lot of guys below five to put in context it's stupid and if and here's another here so people
Starting point is 00:20:02 like to talk about like quarterback criteria. Like when I was on mood, the sticks, Daniel Jeremiah's podcast. One of the things that him and Bucky asked me was, Hey, wait, what are your quarterback criteria? It's like,
Starting point is 00:20:12 what do you look at certain situations? Cause they know that we have PFF ultimate. We can kind of like categorize like how they play in certain situations. And one of the categories that I'd like to put quarterbacks in is let me see you on third and long third and seven plus, right? Like what kind of a quarterback are you out of the categories that I like to put quarterbacks in is let me see you on third and long third and seven plus right like what kind of a quarterback are you out of the 15 quarterbacks that we watched Jalen Milrow had the second highest grade on third and long the only one who had a higher grade was Noah Fafita and Fafita had a two percent big time throw percentage on third and long. Jalen Milrow had a 16.7. Like what? Dude, he's going to throw that thing. The highs of Milrow, not just as a runner,
Starting point is 00:20:58 but as a passer are wild. But you mentioned it. I mean, he does not see secondary defenders i mean he will see primary defenders he will go okay this player is guarding my wide receiver i need to see what they're doing but if they are moving especially cross field and there is a safety that could come down or there is a linebacker that can drop he does not see the secondary defenders nearly as much as he needs to um you mentioned does not really see the blitz as well as he needs to. Does not throw away the ball to kind of live to fight another down. And his average time to throw is 3.45. Will not fly at the NFL level.
Starting point is 00:21:35 No, that's longer than Justin Fields. That's longer than Caleb Williams. Right. Like it's just, it's got to get on a down by down basis. It's got to get so much quicker for him. Um, even with the athletic ability that he has. So just some of those highs that I mentioned there, I mean, they're, they're, they're nuts. The third and long stuff is, is, is absolutely nuts. Um, but then, yeah, you look at some of the negatives,
Starting point is 00:22:00 his, his avoiding negatives percentage, because we, we like to use that as a stable metric, because if you continually avoid negatives in college, you will generally, that translates to the NFL level. If you turn the ball over a lot in college, you're probably going to continue to do it at the NFL level. If you don't turn the ball over a lot in college, you'll, I mean, the NFL was more difficult. So there's always a little variance there, but chances are that's kind of how you play, and you will be somebody who takes care of the football. Jalen Milrow was 10th percentile in avoiding negatives, 0th percentile in sacks taken.
Starting point is 00:22:34 Zero. Like, both of those categories have to get way better for him. Before he's a prospect, honestly. Like, I know that's harsh to say, but before he's a real NFL prospect, those things have to prove. I got him as a mid-round guy just because of the floor. The traits. Yeah. He has traits. He's yeah. Anyways. So, all right. Who do you want to talk about? You want to talk about Fafita next? Where do you have Fafita? I had Fafita,
Starting point is 00:22:55 I think at eight. Hold on. Let me double check that. Yeah. I had Fafita at eight, right after the tier of Milrow and Donovan Smith. So I have him at 10. You want to talk about him or you want me to talk about it take it i i went long on milrow so i i want your thoughts on fafita who's i think a very very good college quarterback and we just don't know if if he can be an nfl quarterback if no fafita was 6-2 215 first rounder i mean he might be he's qb1 like he's probably qb1 in this class so fefitas used to redshirt sophomore um they got like you mentioned they got him listed at five foot ten and a half 195 pounds he's gonna be bryce young size right and he's and he's he's not going to have bryce young's success level versus sec competition he's probably not gonna
Starting point is 00:23:44 have a heisman trophy behind him. You know? And so it's like when you take all those things away now, all of a sudden you're really looking at a lot of deficiencies that he has. So he's a former three-star quarterback. He's rooting. He's rooting harder for Bryce Young and Bryce Young's family.
Starting point is 00:23:57 Yeah. I mean, truly. Yes. Every Sunday he is putting on his Panthers, Bryce Young Jersey and saying, all right, it's go time or else I'm,
Starting point is 00:24:04 I'm in trouble. He is. He, he's go time or else I'm in trouble. He's got everything. He's putting on his shoulder pads a Bryce Young game-worn Panthers jersey, Panthers game-worn pants, the helmet. He's putting on the helmet. Because if Bryce Young takes a leap this next year, Fafita's stock automatically will give him a like at the NFL, will give him a chance. Right. They will give him a chance. So he's a really fun quarterback, man. I'm afraid that
Starting point is 00:24:34 he's just going to be, you know, a great college quarterback, but God, he's so smart. Avoiding negatives, 96th percentile, time to throw 2.55. I mean, the ball's coming out of his hands very quickly. Adjusted completion percentage is almost at 80%. Now, he's got a really low average depth of target, really low big time throw percentage, which unfortunately kind of goes into the stature, his overall arm strength. But his timing, he's got good pace on passes within 35 yards. Now, I know you've got to throw it past 35 yards, but just to kind of list off the strengths,
Starting point is 00:25:09 I mean, the pace, the zip within 35 yards is actually pretty good. The timing, how he reads defenses, he can manipulate guys with his eyes. He plays the quarterback position very, very well. I like the footwork. I like the follow-through. He's got the leg kick you know he's kicking out the leg just to put more of his body into it but it bothered me it is and it should because you have to take note of that because he's a smaller player but i will
Starting point is 00:25:34 say this i like fafita's fundamentals more than i like jordan travis's you know that's fair i was more comfortable watching fafita's film than i was Jordan Travis's because Travis, I felt, just was putting everything in his body into basically like every throw. And I didn't quite think that Fafita had to do that, but he also didn't really push the ball too far. But look, like we said, small-sized guy, but really smart, great processor, sees the field very well, understands defenses, knows how to recognize things pre-snap already,
Starting point is 00:26:05 despite being just a redshirt sophomore. I saw that get better from the beginning of his film in 2023 to the end. He was able to recognize those things a little bit better, even though they need to continue to grow. I think he's a really good prospect. Sorry, I think he's a really good college football quarterback. I just don't know if he'll ever be seen as a good prospect because of the size deficiencies that he has.
Starting point is 00:26:25 Yeah, and there's a good chance that he might not be in this draft class because if he did enter, he'd be 21 on draft day. So he's a young player. Maybe he could be that kind of guy that just says, hey, I'm going to kind of build my body like Russ did where, yeah, I'm going to be short, but I'm going to be really thick
Starting point is 00:26:42 and I'm going to be able to take hits. And he's really gutsy. You don't have to doubt that. I, um, the comp that I had for him, not perfect, but I have Vernon Adams. Oh, I thought of Vernon Adams while watching him. The early comp for him. Yeah. I thought of Vernon Adams while watching him.
Starting point is 00:27:00 Cause I was like, oh, this is good. This could be like, you remember it. Vernon Adams had some real support from the draft Twitter community. And I think there's going to be a section of draft Twitter that really likes Fafita. I don't know if the NFL ultimately will. Right. I'm with you. But yeah, you nailed it. You want to. Well, we got to talk about Riley Leonard, probably, although there's really not a lot to say I kind of went over it like didn't have a season for much of last year Duke's offense looked dreadful when he was out there he had an ankle injury and now he has a lower body injury that's lingered into the spring which is concerning to me is it still his ankle I think it's I don't
Starting point is 00:27:41 think it is I think there was complications from the ankle that he had cleaned up. There's a lot going on there. Leonard is very, very talented. And this is a good place for him to really restart his college career. And he has NFL traits, size, speed, throws. But he needs to be on the field and he needs to really put polish in his game for all that to kind of come to fruition. So six foot four, 215 pounds. You mentioned he went through a lot of injuries last year, which really hampered things.
Starting point is 00:28:13 I mean, he's a former three star quarterback coming out of high school, but he's also a two sport athlete. He actually almost pursued basketball instead of football. Dad, really good basketball player for the Citadel. Yes. Dad played at the Citadel. His uncle played at georgetown i looked that up as well uh great granddad actually played for notre dame back in the 40s uh now riley leonard transferred from duke to notre dame so that's pretty cool um big track background does he have a track background oh yeah big jumper, that makes total sense. Triple jump, long jump, high jump, 300-meter hurdles, and very, very successful with it.
Starting point is 00:28:55 And mobility is a big part of his game. Mobility and escapability, running the RPO offense, being able to have quarterback design runs that they're able to run with a lot of success. The problem is the accuracy and ball placement for him is just not there. And if you watch, like, if you go through the exercise of give me Riley Leonard's best five throws, might be a first rounder, right? I mean, like he has some awesome touch passes,
Starting point is 00:29:22 but they're just so few and far between from the mistakes and the head scratchers and just not getting the ball where it needs to the pocket management i also thought was not where it needed to be with him um i i thought when it came to really pushing the ball deep down the field with distance i was kind of that was a little bit lacking for me the more that i watched compared to nfl levels but you just look at some of his numbers adjusted completion percentage and this is adjusted completion percentage barely into the 70s it's 70.2 percent that time to throw for ryan leonard almost three seconds it's 2.95 avoiding negatives ninth percentile that's lower than jaylen milrose was yeah you know the sacks
Starting point is 00:30:04 aren't nearly as bad you know sack rate was was 4.5 the 64th percentile so it lower than Jalen Milrose was yeah you know the sacks aren't nearly as bad you know sack rate was was 4.5 the 64th percentile so it's not like he's taking a ton of unnecessary sacks but like it's just he's putting the ball in harm's way way too much he wasn't seeing the field the way that he needed to Notre Dame's got to be his best year yet of of just overall like seeing the field the way it needed the early the early player comp that I have for him is Jeff Driscoll. You remember Driscoll? Oh, I remember Driscoll. Driscoll had a lot of tools, a lot of talent. He was that dual
Starting point is 00:30:31 threat type of a player. He just could not get that consistency down to ever really be a legitimate starting NFL quarterback. And I think he's still a backup. Is he hanging around as a tight end or no? Oh, did he switch over? I know. I thought he got looks at tight end at some point let's see uh he's a quarterback technically right now for the commanders so I guess that was just in my brain maybe he should be a tight end you know what to
Starting point is 00:30:58 Driscoll's credit it's what hung around the NFL for eight years now. That's why. Yeah. I mean, that's a long time in the NFL. He got drafted in the sixth round in 2016 and he's still there. So, but that's the thing. Like when you have size, strength, speed, when you have those tools,
Starting point is 00:31:15 I mean, some teams basically always going to give you a backup job. So it's just, what is, is Riley Leonard going to be more than that? That's kind of, I saw some shades of Jeff Driscoll there from him. Can we talk about Donovan Smith?
Starting point is 00:31:27 Hell yeah. Where'd you have him? I had him ninth. I also had him ninth. What a wild ride Donovan Smith's tape is. 6'4", 237. I know some sites have him as 6, five to 41. You get it. He's a big quarterback. He is very physically gifted. Trevor dad is the Colts running backs
Starting point is 00:31:54 coach, by the way. Yep. Uh, best blurb on a school website that I read throughout this period was his, his motivation for working hard. The haters. No way. I swear to God. You can go on Houston's website and read it. Oh, man. I love. He's in my top five.
Starting point is 00:32:16 I really almost bumped him up a couple spots. He's actually in my top five. I was wrong. 2023, 2,801 passing yards, 22 passing touchdowns, 13 picks, 22 big-time throws, and 16 turnover-worthy plays. He also had over 600 rushing yards, 6 rushing touchdowns, 41 first downs. Yeah. Three-star recruit. He played wide receiver for very noteworthy high school program,
Starting point is 00:32:38 Bishop Gorman. Heard of it. In Vegas. Then he transferred his senior year to play quarterback in Texas. And, you know, obviously wanted to be a quarterback, had that chance, started out at Texas Tech. Now he's at Houston. Listen, this dude's a big bodied quarterback that can rip throws in any area of the field. He could drive the ball in between zone coverage. He does not need a lot of space to generate power in his throws. Now he's big-bodied power runner that I thought was particularly effective
Starting point is 00:33:09 on third and short and at the goal line. And that really kept a lot of drives going for them. And he doesn't care about getting hit, doesn't care about moving the pile forward. The weakness is there are too many interceptions, Trevor. You just have no idea what he was doing. Like you look at it and you're like, wow wow you really tried to throw that ball into triple coverage or you ran around for eight seconds and just said fuck it I'm throwing this up there and I respect it I really
Starting point is 00:33:36 really do but man it's crazy and my when we get to Cam Ward i'm gonna have a similar rant but yeah you got it in five i know that speaks to this quarterback class by the way so uh here's a weird one when you're you know i know you're a numbers guy you work for pff what the hell does that mean i am on a pff podcast did you find this weird 10 plus yard throws to his left were a significant problem. He was 10 for 22 in the 10 to 19 yard range. He was two for 14 in the 20 plus yard range to his left. Two touchdowns, four picks in those ranges. And I bring those up because he could throw the absolute heck out of the football down the field.
Starting point is 00:34:22 His numbers throwing to the right are really, really good. He is a good, talented, deep ball thrower. He has all the arm strength in the world. He was not accurate throwing to his left. It was really puzzling. Now I got to go back to watch his film because I didn't necessarily see anything in his fundamentals that would have hold me that he
Starting point is 00:34:46 would have had deficiencies thrown to his left like sometimes guys you can tell they're like you're they're like overextending and their follow-through and they'll hold on to it a little too long and so the ball will sometimes veer more towards the left where you know if you're throwing to the right side of things and that's the case normally you can still keep it in balance but that could mean some turnover worthy plays and if you're throwing to the left and that's the case you'll throw it out of bounds but you still won't get the the completions there sometimes like your hips can be a little bit wider your feet can be pointed in the wrong direction open up a little differently right but you know there are guys who sometimes it's tough to be overly critical and i try not to
Starting point is 00:35:22 be on total throwing motion you know feet all the way through your follow-through if it works for you it works for you but there are some times when if you got accuracy issues and you don't necessarily have your fundamentals down i'll point that out in your film i didn't really see that with smith so that's very interesting that he struggled so much to his left yeah and you know when he pressured, just a scary drop off in accuracy in yards per attempt. It was, he really, he really struggled under pressure.
Starting point is 00:35:50 His clean pocket passing grade is 84.7 and his pocket, his pocket grade under pressure is 38.7. I mean, two totally different players, totally different players. You know, the issue for me with Smith and I can understand why some people are going to be higher on him because of like what you mentioned,
Starting point is 00:36:08 really good dual threat ability. He's got a lot of potential to him there as a runner and a passer. Like a lot of that stuff is there. And let's be honest too. He was a part-time starter in 2021 and 2022 with Texas Tech. He only started four games in each of those seasons. So this past year with Houston was the first year where he was a full-time starter. He sees things a tick late right now.
Starting point is 00:36:33 To me, I'm watching him play, and there were a handful of plays where I went back and I just would rewind it like six or seven or eight times. And I'm like, you, you, you've got to be able to see that this receiver was going to be open before you started your throwing motion. See it open versus throw it open. He, he, he is way too much right now waiting for these wide receivers to be open. And I think that actually lends itself to a little bit of overcorrection of what you talked about earlier, where it's's like how are you trying to complete those throws it's because he he doesn't have that sense of throwing to a spot that I know is confidently going to be open right now and I think because of that the two detractors are he's late when he does
Starting point is 00:37:23 see it right and when he sees it wrong sometimes he'll pull the trigger anyways so that's where i'm at with donovan smith is a really toolsy quarterback but somebody who is not seeing open space and trusting to throw to a spot rather than waiting for a guy to be open and kind of pulling the trigger after that. Totally. I'm with you. The last guy we didn't talk about was Jackson Dart, right? Yeah. I think Jackson Dart is a really nice prospect. I'm really curious to see how he develops.
Starting point is 00:37:57 Me too. Former four-star quarterback, somebody who was a Gatorade football player of the year, also was an all-state baseball player as a third baseman. So, like, he's got positional versatility to him. He was at USC before he transferred to Ole Miss, and he wanted to play for USC. And then I think it was Clay Helton.
Starting point is 00:38:19 The coach got fired, and then Lincoln Riley came in. And when Lincoln was like, yeah, I'm bringing Caleb Williams in, it was like, okay, well, I'm going to gonna transfer now so he transfers over to Ole Miss there's some things to like about him I got in his strengths category I got natural poise and both in and out of structure right I think he's he's a very natural athlete feeder light balance ready to take off for brace for a throw very quickly willingness to step up in the pocket above average mobility and escapability and I think he's got a decent arm I think he's got an adequate or average arm for the NFL level. The big issues for me with Jackson Dart is,
Starting point is 00:38:49 and I don't know if this gets remedied this year, in Lane Kiffin's offense, it's very streamlined. It is, we are scheming things up for this player to be open. And he throws at that player a lot when he should and when he shouldn't i agree and and and that's that's that's really tough as an eval when you have a player who comes from that system that is very read friendly because you're not really going through progressions you're not really reading the whole field of the defense sure your numbers might be efficient but like when that pressure comes at you at the NFL level when these defenders are a lot better at the NFL level when you cannot just lock in on one primary guy
Starting point is 00:39:33 what are you as a quarterback and I don't know how well of an answer we're going to get that from Jackson Dart this year because I saw way too much of it of him just being locked into the Lane Kiffin system I think it's really well said by you. I think he took me the longest to watch out of any quarterback because of the system. I really tried digging around. You watch games, and then I was like, this is one of the rare times I'm going to have to go to some cut-ups of unique things. I started playing with a lot of filters because I just need to see him
Starting point is 00:39:59 in situations that are outside of the comfort zone of the offense. I'm with you. I like the arm. He has no fear of getting rocked. He hangs in there and makes a throw, but he also takes some really bad sacks. Sometimes he'll stare too long, like you said, locking in. He kind of pats the ball. It allows guys in zone to make a break.
Starting point is 00:40:17 So I think he's somebody that can really take a big step this year, but there's some key things there to watch. Yeah, 28%, just 28th percentile which by the way guys when we're talking about percentiles you want to be much higher right you want to be a lot closer to 100 than yard zero 28th percentile and sacks taken in a 2.75 time to throw average for an offense that's normally pretty quick at getting the ball out of your hands so um he just needs to continue to to improve when it comes to how he sees the field maybe getting through progressions a little bit quicker and all that stuff so uh i think that was it i mean yours is
Starting point is 00:40:48 in my yeah we'll get to quinn yeah yours is seven for me i think we've talked about pretty much everybody else we'll talk that we'll talk about cam ward and we'll talk about some other guys so uh who you got a five five is cam ward and listen i get it, this is the guy that I wrote down. People could have him like you outside the top 10. I'm not really shocked. There will be people that will tell you that Cam Ward can rise up and be a top three quarterback in this draft class. The comments for Cam Ward. Cam Ward has a stronger army than the addicts.
Starting point is 00:41:19 I'm serious. We might lose. Well, thankfully, you have him at five because I was going to say we might have lost him if If it was just my ranking, the subscriber count might've gone down by 10,000. If we would have just gone by my ranking. People love Cam Ward. And let me say this, Cam Ward is an awesome player to root for. When you realize that like he had to start out in the FCS and he won the Jerry Rice award in 2021 for being the most outstanding freshman in the FCS. And then he goes and finds success at Washington State.
Starting point is 00:41:51 Chaotic success, but success. And now he's at Miami. And we're going to see... Contemplated the draft last year. He did, and I'm glad he didn't go. I am too. I don't think he would have been a... I don't think he would have been taken in the first four rounds.
Starting point is 00:42:06 If he declared, I don't know if he would have been taken in the first five. Yeah. Here's the thing with cam ward, big year, statistically, no surprise in the pack, Washington state.
Starting point is 00:42:15 He throws for over 3,700 passing yards, 25 passing touchdowns, only seven picks, 24 big time throws only seven picks, but 21 turnover worthy plays cam ward he's a wild man like it is truly crazy watching him play football in both the best and both the worst ways i put him in his uh no i have him kind of in a tier with the next guy but they're so different so i'll have to kind of workshop that here with the next guy, but they're so different. So I'll have to kind of workshop that.
Starting point is 00:42:46 Here's the thing. Dangerous athleticism to elude pressure and activate the scramble drill. Like the cuts, the shoulder dip, the agility. He is very difficult to get a hand on. He shows pretty touch on the deep ball for these bucket tosses over the defense that just fall into the lap of the receiver. Where you're like, how the hell did he do that? And he has the Jaden Daniels zero fears runner to move the chains. Like I'm going to get rocked like a pinball and I do not care.
Starting point is 00:43:15 The problem is with Cam Ward, there's no way around it. 21 turnover worthy plays is a very concerning number factoring both the INTs, the six fumbles and the should be INTs. He simply Trevor, and you said this earlier about someone else. He simply will not let a play die to live for the next one. He won't. He every play is is backyard football. We're getting a touchdown. It's such a chaotic brand of football and he's a bit of a fumbling machine, but he is really, really talented. He's a gamer. He's a really unique athlete in terms of the mobility at the position that if somebody in this Miami offense just gets through to him and say like, man, you dial things back a notch or two where we cut out some of these chaotic fumbles and these throws that you just don't need to try because you don't need to score 60 points a game.
Starting point is 00:44:09 I mean, I see Cam Ward as a guy that can really come into the NFL as an interesting developmental backup. And I want to be clear, I think that really speaks to this class, that my QB5, my summary evaluation is like, interesting developmental backup if he was in the draft today. There's just no way around it. This class is very different from last year. And we're going to get to some more interesting guys i think in my top four but we just have to be honest with ourselves it's just so different than last year yeah yeah no it is and and i think that this
Starting point is 00:44:36 again really good to reiterate kind of as we get into the top fives here um just some added context to kind of like where he came from just some stuff that i i looked up and i found out almost quit football in high school because his coaches kept putting him on jv until his junior year um he's just too small so uh well so the the offense that he ran was a wing t offense so i mean he he only had 233 passing attempts in his entire high school career wow so like that's why he was a zero star quarterback so it goes to incarnate word you mentioned he he only had 233 passing attempts in his entire high school career. Wow. So like, that's why he was a zero star quarterback. So it goes to incarnate word.
Starting point is 00:45:08 You mentioned he wins the Jerry Rice award for being the top FCS player. It goes to Washington state, puts up some really good numbers there, but he is just, he is truly a unique individual, a unicorn, just a very interesting case study of how to play the quarterback position. Cause there's a lot of stuff that he does that is,
Starting point is 00:45:25 I would say unorthodox. And yet there are some of it where you go, okay, that worked, I guess. So, and he's just kind of a wild ride. I,
Starting point is 00:45:34 it starts with the sidearm release. You know, some of these guys, um, like Riley Leonard does this, you know, Quinn Ewers does this. Yeah,
Starting point is 00:45:42 he does. Yeah. Like you will see them at times give you that like Matthew Stafford, Aaron Rogers type of like, Ooh, let me give you like a nice little sidearm release. Cam Ward's every down throw is like out here. Like it's, it's, it's totally a sidearm release. I had to go back and watch some film of guys because as I was coming up with a player comp, I was like, who has this type of motion? Bernie Kosar kind of had that kind of emotion. But I'll tell you, the one that he actually looks the closest to is David Carr.
Starting point is 00:46:17 David Carr actually had that sidearm release almost very similar to the way that cam ward releases the football so that was kind of the comp that i came up with there because you know car had a little bit of elusiveness to him as well and i think that that's actually a pretty good uh pretty good comp there now i don't i don't think cam ward's gonna go number one overall like uh like wait did i say derrick car or david car which one did i say i think you i thought you said david and yes yeah david david david david's the one david's the one that I say? I thought you said David. Yeah, so yeah, David, David, David. David's the one that I meant to say. I'm just making sure. I thought so, yeah.
Starting point is 00:46:49 So David goes number one overall. I don't think Cam Ward's going to go number one overall, but stylistically, those guys were very similar in my opinion. My little scouting blurb that I have on him, and remember, he's QB 12 for me. Ward is a classic college football fan favorite. He is so tough to bring down in the backfield and is always looking for the big play.
Starting point is 00:47:06 His arm is adequate for the pros in strength, and he has some impressive touch throws. But his throwing fundamentals with the wild sidearm release and true ball placement are far too unpredictable on a play-by-play basis. He also must hold on to the ball better with way too many fumbles right now. Yeah, slippery hands. You look at his time to throw throw and it's 2.80. It's a little on the high side.
Starting point is 00:47:29 His sack's taken 14th percentile again. Like, that's not great. This is a very interesting stat that I saw here. So on third and long, not only do I look at adjusted completion percentage, grades, big time throws, turnover worthy plays, things like that. I also look at past the sticks
Starting point is 00:47:45 percentage because I want to know, are you getting this first down with your arm? Or are you primarily asking your playmakers to do it? Wards, I thought would have been much higher. And he had one of the lower past the sticks numbers at 29.5%. Normally you get guys who are like 40, 50, sometimes 60. His being in the high 20s was very shocking to me, but it kind of goes to lower average depth of target. And you mentioned his big time throws were 24. His turnover worthy plays were 21. And you just don't want it to be that even. It can't be that even. And they they're both high like he's making big grows and he's also making big turnover worthy plays right right he's just he's uh like i said a an unorthodox player in a lot of ways you've got to have a lot of success as an unorthodox player for me to really buy into you and um i just don't think that i saw enough of
Starting point is 00:48:42 it in the ways that i wanted to with Cam Ward. Who's five for you? Who is five for me? Did you watch Jalen Daniels from Kansas? No, actually. I watched him last year because he was eligible. Jalen Daniels is five for me. Wow. Yeah. Jalen is fun, man. Okay. He is, I, this might come bite me in the ass, but I don't care, man. I'm really curious now because I didn't think of him as a priority watch from what I'd seen last year, but I will absolutely watch him right after this. So Jalen, six feet tall, 220 pounds. Yeah, he's dense.
Starting point is 00:49:25 The height, smaller, but he's a dense dude. Unfortunately, he missed most of last year due to a back injury. So it's like, okay, the whole reason why I like you being 220 is actually to avoid the back injury part of it. But his 2022 season was really nice. He was even getting some Heisman love midway through the season. And then 2023, he tweaked his back in the first week of camp.
Starting point is 00:49:51 And he never really recovered from it. Missed the first game in the season. Played for three straight games. Right. And he was kind of good those games. And he was good. Yeah, that's what I was going to say. He was good. And then, I think byu was the last game he played he went to warm up for the texas game which was the game the next week and he was like i can't do this like i'm in way too much pain and they basically shut him down for the season because of whatever he was dealing with now he's been through a full spring um their head coach
Starting point is 00:50:21 lance leapod uh was he said that they put him through everything that they needed to in spring, so he seems to be pretty good. Background on this guy, three-star quarterback, committed to Kansas over Air Force, Army, Louisville, Syracuse. Started six games as a true freshman. Then he lost the starting job to, is it Jason Bean? I think it was Jason Bean in 2021. But then, I feel like he's been around forever.
Starting point is 00:50:46 Bean got hurt. Daniels got the job back. Started nine games that 2022 season was good. And then, obviously, he had the back injury that he was kind of dealing with. Some strengths and weaknesses with Jalen Daniels. Elusive athlete. Really good escapability and RPO ability. I think he can operate RPO offices really, really well.
Starting point is 00:51:06 Arm strength is adequate for the NFL level despite the size. Normally when you get guys who are six feet tall, you're worried about just the overall arm strength. It's just less muscle to be able to grip the ball and throw the ball far. He actually has pretty good velocity on a lot of his throws. Now, the throwing motion is elongated, and because of that, sometimes you get a little bit of accuracy inconsistency just because whenever you have,
Starting point is 00:51:27 just for everybody out there, when you have a longer looping throwing motion, that is simply more things that can go wrong. When you have a compact ball is high, ball is back, ball is out kind of a throwing motion, less things that can go wrong, less variance, a lot more repeatability in your throat. So when you hold the ball lower and when you,
Starting point is 00:51:51 you know, Tebow is, you know, the famous one for this, when you pat the ball and it's just this Ferris wheel of a, of a, of a throwing motion, well, then a lot of things can go wrong. So he's not Tim Tebow levels, but he's got a little bit of a loop. And sometimes that goes in the overall accuracy, but he has some really impressive touch passes, especially on the run. Some of these guys have mobility and they're scramblers, but when they pass on the run, it's all over the place. Jalen scrambling grade was 75.3, really high. One of the highest marks of any quarterback in the class. His adjusted completion percentage on scrambling throws, 74.1. So this is a true outside the pocket, outside of structure type of a quarterback. He's also willing to look over the middle of the field through his progressions. I've seen him manipulate defenders with his eyes as well. So you could tell that he understands defenses pre-snap.
Starting point is 00:52:47 The issue with him now, the time to throw, 3.09 seconds. So it's over three seconds. He is another one of those players that just has to balance out the Superman plays versus the, hey, just throw it out of bounds. Live to fight another down type of a thing. But I really hope we get a fully healthy year from Jalen Daniels because his 2022 tape, he had some really special moments, especially that Duke game.
Starting point is 00:53:11 That Duke game was fantastic. If he was playing with a hurt back last year in those three games that we saw, that's unbelievably impressive what he was still able to do. Hope we get a fully healthy year from him because dude, he was so much fun to do. Hope we get a fully healthy year from him because dude, he was so much fun to watch.
Starting point is 00:53:28 That's an interesting one. I'm really looking forward to watching him now going back to 2022. So this should be his fifth year, correct? Cause he was in the 2020 recruiting class. So that would be one, two, three, four, five. Yes. He's a red shirt senior. Red shirt senior.
Starting point is 00:53:43 Okay. So whole yeah. Full process for him. I was gonna say, I just feel like he's been redshirt senior. Redshirt senior. Okay. So whole, yeah. Full process for him. I was going to say, I just feel like he's been on the map for a long time because he played a lot of games as a freshman. Like you said, he started six games as a freshman. Yep. So, okay. Well, Jalen Daniels, I'm definitely interested to honestly watch him out of the gate because like you said that you can't like the fact that he was fighting through a back injury that just limits, limits every aspect of your game as a quarterback. Dude,
Starting point is 00:54:06 he, I was reading an article after they shut him down after the Texas game. I think he said that like his mom and his sister had to like fly to campus to stay with him for the next month. Cause he could barely get out of bed. And this guy was playing D1 football games. So, all right.
Starting point is 00:54:24 So who do you, who do you got at number four? Connor Wigman from Texas A&M. Nice. Is he in your top five? He is in my top five. Okay. I like where you're going with this.
Starting point is 00:54:34 He is in my top five. I think he's my favorite quarterback in the class. And that doesn't mean, you know, obviously he's not number one. There's a lot of projecting to do here. You want to talk about players that missed a lot of last season, similar to your Jalen Daniels thought process there. Wigman, his 2023 season ended after four starts due to a foot injury that ended his season.
Starting point is 00:54:57 In those four starts, eight touchdowns, two picks, really weren't his fault, the two picks when you watch him. At least one of them definitely wasn't. Five big time throws. Former four-star recruit. He was rivals in ESPN's top quarterback in his recruiting class, highly touted baseball prospect out of the state of Texas. Yep.
Starting point is 00:55:14 This guy really, really can throw the absolute hell out of the football. And it's, it's, I'm trying to find the right word. It's graceful. It's not like I'm big and now I'm winding up and I'm going to roll out and just chuck it 80 yards,
Starting point is 00:55:32 legitimate quarterbacking. I mean, big time arm drives the ball outside. It's how I felt about Pennix in a way where you watch Pennix drop back and it's like, okay, he understands what to do with his feet, how to kind of shift the pocket
Starting point is 00:55:47 and drive the ball in between coverages and this is a really young player i love watching him throw now i do think there's a little bit of a delay in his motion about it's it's kind of odd it's like halfway through it's not a deal breaker for me but it's definitely something i want to see speed up this year yeah right did you catch that too it's a little bit his his whole motion is is kind of baseball-y yes like it's kind of the baseball backgrounds right there you you could see it in how he throws it very short stop-esque um so listen he's a fearless player you watch him run he'll lower his shoulder to finish plays the chains are in the end zone he was a machine on third downs if you want to see a young quarterback dominate on third downs with decisiveness and confidence and talent I if this guy doesn't get hurt I don't know what A&M season looks like I he's I'm buying in if I'm buying
Starting point is 00:56:45 in on anybody in this class to end up with a first round grade besides my number one quarterback it's Connor Wigman like all the talent is there and a lot of things you can't teach and I think he's tough as hell and I think he just sees the field in a way that I I didn't really see a lot of these guys come up to that level and I understand I'm looking at small sample size four games you know he is season ends during the Auburn game I get it but sometimes you just watch and you're like yeah I'll bet on it and I hope it works out because this is the kind of player that this quarterback class needs it is very interesting that you say that if you could see a guy ascending to first round status it would be Connor Wegmanman because he is QB one for me.
Starting point is 00:57:28 Wow. I get, listen, like it's a big balls move by you. Cause the sample size is just, it's just, there's not a lot. It is. It is. Like if there'll be people that'd be like, what? Listen, no, I'm, I totally get it. I think I like his tools way better than my, I'll just say it, my third quarterback, Shadur Sanders, and my second quarterback, Quinn Ewers. Like, I like his tools way better.
Starting point is 00:57:54 I just need him to see him play football. Wait. Okay, yeah, sorry, sorry, sorry. That means you have Carson at one. Yeah, I have Carson at one. I was about to lose my shit because I thought you didn't have it i was like why do we got to start the podcast over we got to do just an hour on that alone no okay yeah so look i'm with you 100 he's my qb1 i'll talk about him now um now you mentioned it he only played four games last
Starting point is 00:58:23 year because of a foot injury broke a bone in his foot uh and those teams that he played in 2024 new mexico miami louisiana monroe and then he played some game before getting hurt and so it's like is the competition level great no but you saw so much of what you already wanted to see from him you mentioned it really great on third down 87.9 great on third and long alone.9. Great on third and long alone. Pass the sticks number on third and long, 64.3%. This guy is going to get the first down with his arm. His passes over the middle of the field, intermediate middle of the field, 10 to 20 yards down the field in between the numbers. 92.5 passing grade. Clean pocket passing grade, elite. Standard dropbacks, elite. Early downs
Starting point is 00:59:05 to first and second down as a passer, elite. No play action, elite. Under pressure, 86.5. His grade is a scrambler, 71.6. His time to throw, 2.56. This guy's decisive. He's getting the ball out of his hands quick, despite
Starting point is 00:59:21 it really being, you know, not having many games under his belt as a starter. Avoiding negatives, 98th percentile, sack rate taken, 88th percentile. He is a natural athlete. He is a natural mover. You could tell he's got that multi-sport background. He's got impressive touch on those deep passes. I think that his style, his scheme, and his ceiling is very scheme versatile. He's not somebody who you go, okay, yeah, he's got to just play in a vertical offense or he's got to play in an RPO offense or it's got to be a West Coast offense. He can do it all, I think.
Starting point is 00:59:51 I agree. I think what he can do is very scheme versatile going to the next level. A little bit of weaknesses. The follow-through can have that wide leg kick. I mentioned the baseball background. Sometimes he fades away. He does kind of what Bo Nix did a little bit too much last year where he's just fading away from passes where you don't really need to.
Starting point is 01:00:07 Step into it a little bit more. Be a little bit more confident. The distance on passes, not as impressive as that velocity is, but it might be because of the shorter throwing motion. Like you mentioned, he's got that shorter kind of like shortstop sort of throwing motion to him. So I wonder if maybe if you free his mind to stretch that out a little bit more maybe you get a little bit more distance on it because i do think that he has the arm strength um and then the
Starting point is 01:00:30 other one and this is this is the biggest question mark with it he appeared rattled in that auburn game of the games that he played last season the one that meant the most was the one where he looked the most rattled now you can take that and you say, see, that's the real Connor Wegman. Or you can say, no, no, no. That was, you know, he could, you can't really hold that too much against him because he didn't even get time to recalibrate and have that great second half and really kind of turn things around before he got hurt. So I think that the flashes of what this guy shows is fantastic.
Starting point is 01:01:02 My early player comp from him and this is sort of a throwing motion comp and a little bit of just like a style comp I think he is a more mobile and more natural Mac Jones because think about Mac Mac is an excellent passer I think he is an excellent passer where Mac falls short falls short is when you force him off his spot, when you make him be mobile, and when you make him be sort of like a natural athlete outside of structure and under pressure. Wegman does those things well. So that's why I say he's a more natural, a more mobile Mack Jones, because you're taking the best of what Mack was as a passer that made him a first round pick. And then you're kind of taking away a lot of the
Starting point is 01:01:44 deficiencies with Wegman being a much better athlete. So I think people might hear that cop and they'd be like, Whoa, Mack Jones, he stinks. Mack was still a first round pick based off of how good of a passer he was. And I think if you add some athleticism in there, it changes and really elevates kind of who he is as an overall prospect. And I feel like that's how I see Wegman. So I got Wegman as QB qb1 i love it i didn't even know if you'd have him on your list i was like when i put
Starting point is 01:02:08 him at four i was like man i think people are gonna freak out when i do this but my four you're gonna hate okay who do you think it is well if he's not in my top 10 no he's not and it's not all or it's graham mertz it is is Graham Mertz yeah hey made a lot of strides last year I need to see more listen I am I graduated from the University of Florida all right there I'm getting it out of the way I did not have very high expectations about Graham Mertz at all going into last season and I'm really not trying to be a homer at all whatsoever about Mertz because I'm going to be honest I went into this film review thinking that I would just see somebody who is, I don't know,
Starting point is 01:02:47 very mid for lack of better words. And he really impressed me in a lot of areas, six foot three, 215 pounds. It's 55th percentile, 29th percentile for Graham Mertz, former four-star quarterback. He was the Gatorade Kansas football player of the year as a senior in 2018.
Starting point is 01:03:05 He committed to Wisconsin, played at Wisconsin, lost the initial quarterback battle in 2019, but then he started for the following three seasons at Wisconsin before transferring over to Florida. His numbers last year were so much better in almost every single area than they ever were at Wisconsin. I'm talking about passing grade, passing efficiency. The turnover-worthy play percentage was low. The sack percentage was much lower. area than they ever were wisconsin i'm talking about passing grade passing efficiency the
Starting point is 01:03:25 turnover the play percentage was low uh the sack percentage was much lower um actually no the avoiding negatives was much lower uh the big time throw rate was a little bit higher like everything was just so much better for graham mertz just played smarter football to me even if it was vanilla at times yes yes now the average depth of target was a little bit lower the big time throw percentage a little bit lower so there's no doubt about it he's got it he's got to push the ball a little bit deeper down the field but i mean the guy was great on third and long he was great over the middle of the field he was such a smart player here's some strength and weaknesses that i had for him fundamentally sound passer from his footwork to his release
Starting point is 01:04:03 very repeatable almost every single throwienced player who understands pre-snap and progressions and timing. That is what impressed me the most with him versus the rest of this class. There were so many other quarterbacks that I have looked at and I watched in this class where I went, there is so much that is still needed on a play-by-play basis for honestly how you see the field pre-snap to be able to either speed up your timing or get your eyes to the right spot or make the right decision. Graham Mertz was able to see things in the pre-snap to not only get the ball out of his hands when he needed to, 2.68 time to throw, but also manipulate defenses with his eyes and find where the space was going to be
Starting point is 01:04:45 before it really opened up. Not afraid to look and attack the middle of the field. Adequate arm strength for the pro level. High passing grades on the run and under pressure as well. Under pressure grade, 91.0, Connor. This guy just didn't make mistakes when he was pressured. He was very, very safe. Like, just safe, it felt.
Starting point is 01:05:10 Yes, yes. That's okay. He honestly needed a year of that he really did 100 weaknesses for him accuracy dips when the touch was required which i you know it needs to be a little bit better next year 2023 by far his most efficient season and must continue as you mentioned when i brought his name up initially but my scouting summary for him to kind of wrap it up here. Mertz had his best season in 2023. Though his big-time throw percentage and average depth of target were low, he was smart, accurate, avoided negatives very well, including under pressure and on the run. He's got an adequate NFL arm and must improve that in 2023.
Starting point is 01:05:41 His season was not an outlier in how efficient he was while pushing the ball down the field a little bit more. If he continues to improve, he's going to have a lot of fans in NFL front offices, I think. Early comp for him is Kirk Cousins. That's kind of how the archetype of what I saw he could become at the NFL level and where he's going to have success is going to look like what Kirk Cousins has had over the last couple of years. So we both had Shadur at QB3, it seems like?
Starting point is 01:06:04 Yeah, we did indeed. Okay. All right, so you have Carson Beck at QB three, it seems like. Yeah, we did. OK, all right. So you have you have Carson Beck at QB two. I'm QB one. Yep. This show is officially the official show of Connor Wigman. Quite clearly. Our Shadur Sanders.
Starting point is 01:06:17 I mean, man, what an interesting prospect to discuss. And here's what I mean by that. I think Shadur has had such a wild ride. He was a four-star recruit. He was number 60 on the ESPN Top 300. Like, Shadur was a legit recruit. And he goes to Jackson State with his dad. He obviously plays very well against that level of competition.
Starting point is 01:06:39 Now he's obviously with Colorado, Power 5. I think he came out of the gate hot. They obviously did not have the second half of the season that they were hoping there is so much, you know, loud noise around sugar, whether he's playing good or bad because of everything Dion's doing at the Colorado program,
Starting point is 01:07:02 sometimes for better, sometimes for worse as a player. Like, let's just talk about Shadur the player, because I think that is so often misguided. I mean, this is somebody that when all the betting books launched their number one pick odds, he was the number one guy. Right. And I'll be honest with you as an NFL draft analyst, that's watched now a lot of Shadur Sanders.
Starting point is 01:07:23 My jaw hit the floor to think of Shadur Sanders as the favorite to be the number one overall pick in next year's draft. And I don't even think that's a knock on Shadur Sanders. I just think that it's just misguided of what he is now. And then there's some people that are too harsh on him. So here's what I thought of him as a player. Finished 2023 with their over 3200 passing yards 27 passing touchdowns only three picks 22 big time throws and seven turnover worthy plays he added 379 rushing yards four touchdowns good numbers all around i think he ties his lower half to his eyes when given time in the pocket like mechanically when things are right and this line wasn't very good when
Starting point is 01:08:00 mechanically yeah this line was bad you're way too nice there saying that. Well, I do want to get into that. And I will with the weaknesses. Certified. When he has time, like mechanically, it's pretty to watch. I think he's got a snappy throwing motion. And Shadur understands when it needs to be tight. And I think that's really, really impressive. How to tighten the motion depending on the kind of play,
Starting point is 01:08:21 whether it's the drop, whether it's the concept, and it could also be the pressure he's looking at. He is a very effective middle of the field thrower, short intermediate deep 35 for 50 in the 10 to 19 yard range while averaging 11 yards per attempt. There was a pretty catch and run ball when targets are working on crossing routes. He understands how to get his guys, uh, you know, in stride to allow them to really be effective with their run after a catch ability. He looks to scramble into space to extend passing plays.
Starting point is 01:08:50 He's not just like, oh, pressure's on, I got to run. He's trying to scramble and find a new area to set up his throwing motion for. And I think that's the sign of a quarterback that's played a lot of football, by the way, right? Like Jackson State starter right away. Now he's got to start at Colorado. He's played a lot of football and that's somebody to me that there's some polish in his game. He throws the deep ball with touch when he's playing on time and in rhythm. Like it can be really, really pretty. Yep. Here's the weaknesses and
Starting point is 01:09:16 there's a lot of them. Jaw dropping 49 sacks in 2023. I get the offensive line sucked. He holds the ball for ever. Yeah. Almost three seconds time to throw is 2.89 for in an offense that that wasn't the idea of the offense at the beginning of last year. Yeah. So I think his arm is average at best. I don't think it's a great arm. And when you watch a class that has big arms, it really hits you. Like I watched Jalen Milrow. I watched Donovan Smith, Connor Wigman. It's like, whoa, okay, this is not that arm. It's not close. You saw a struggle with the adjustment of the speed of the front seven defenders in the power five.
Starting point is 01:09:58 Like maybe like Jackson State, it was just like, I can make a lot of these guys miss or roll out of the pocket and run away from. Guys caught up to him. He is not this elite athlete. Like it's not like watching cam ward right or even milrow where it's they're out in space and you're like oh man like we could even like riley leonard when you watch riley leonard leonard run in 2022 he makes people miss and he's i think he ran for almost 700 yards in 2022 riley's got some got some scoop. Riley can really, really run.
Starting point is 01:10:26 That is not Shadur Sanders. No. He's a take-what's-there runner once the pass to the line of scrimmage. His running style sure reminds me so much of Russell Wilson. So much of Russell Wilson. Deep sideline throws are a work in progress to me. I thought he was relatively inaccurate and lacking required velocity when he was thrown outside the numbers.
Starting point is 01:10:50 I filtered the 15 to 25- he was thrown outside the numbers. Like I filtered the 15 to 25 yard range throws outside the numbers. He was over 12 and they just weren't particularly close. So, and like the NFL, you're going to drop back and throw outside the numbers in the 15 plus yard range. You're going to be asked to threaten that part of the defense. We don't have any sample size of him doing that last year. He's fumbled 24 times in three seasons. And that's a case with a lot of these guys. Fumbling's an issue. It's an the defense yeah we don't have any sample size of him doing that last year yeah uh he's fumbled 24 times in three seasons and that's the case with a lot of these guys fumbling's an issue it's an issue for him chador to me right now is a day two prospect that i think does a lot of impressive things mechanically and when he's given time in front of him he understands how to operate the offense like you could tell he really buys into what the offense wanted to do when things were
Starting point is 01:11:25 right when things started to go wrong it looked really really bad he so I like the number one overall pick projections to me are so far away saying that he's not a pro quarterback is so far away he's just right he's just right in the middle to me is this like top 75 ish top 50 ish like he's got a lot of work to do this year that could fluctuate which way that goes but that's where i landed on shadir sanders and how he was my qb3 yeah look i i see him very similarly to how you do and use qb3 for me as well um i i i hope that people like don't take this too um out of control because there's just there's there's so much that can change, but like I gave him an early late second, early third round.
Starting point is 01:12:07 I would be right there. Oh, 100% with you. That's the range. Now his, his style reminded me a lot of Teddy Bridgewater, actually very similar in size to Bridgewater. Um,
Starting point is 01:12:16 my favorite trait of Bridgewater coming out of the draft was that Bridgewater had just ice in his veins, man. It felt like he was just taking hits after hit after hit. And he was continuing to throw the ball well and, um, get it to where it needed to, but Bridgewater didn't necessarily have the best mobility. I think that that's still the case with Shadurah Sanders. Man, you mentioned all the sacks that he took, okay? Think of all the sacks that he took and all the fumbles. You mentioned the fumbles as well. Still, 97th percentile in avoiding negatives. I mean, this guy,
Starting point is 01:12:44 he never put the ball in harm's way. He never hurt his team like that. And I think that there's absolutely something to that. So I think it's a decision maker, really good. How does that factor in bad sacks though? I think he took really bad sacks in the second half of last year. You know what I mean? Yeah.
Starting point is 01:13:00 So, and I guess like that goes into it too. Like bad sacks, if a sack is on the quarterback, that will count as a negative because the avoiding negative percentile is anytime he had a, was like a negative play was recorded on, you know? And he put the ball as a passer in harm's way so little that even with the fumbles and the sacks taken,
Starting point is 01:13:22 it was still 97th percentile in avoiding mistakes. So I think that there is something to that, and it's worth him noting. The biggest issue with me with Sanders is the arm talent. I just think it's average to below average for the NFL standard. I think he's got really nice zip on passes that are 25, 30 yards out. And if you ask him to throw past that, he can. Like, he's got the distance.
Starting point is 01:13:50 Like, he's been playing the position long enough. He's got good enough fundamentals. He can crank his back a little bit further, and he can hit the right trajectory on the ball to get it decent ways down the field. But to me, like, go watch Jalen Milrow's release go watch Jaden Daniels release and then go watch uh Shadur Sanders release those guys are so twitched up the second they want to throw is like boom the ball is just out of their hands. Like snapping a rubber band. Right. And for Sanders, it's just not.
Starting point is 01:14:26 It's just not nearly as twitched up. The release speed is slower, and therefore, a lot of the miles per hour on the ball are going to be a lot less. He just does not have that same level of velocity with him. So I think the timing can be excellent with him. He can see the field really well. He avoids the negatives. He's great under pressure.
Starting point is 01:14:44 But I just am worried about the overall ceiling with his arm talent at the nfl level he truly has to be a assassin like to me so i i compared him to teddy bridgewater because i think just like size wise he's the same as bridgewater they're basically built the same height and weight um i think they're you know they're they think their combine results would be very similar. And I think their play styles are very similar, honestly, with how much clutch plays and doing things well under pressure, like what Bridgewater was able to do at Louisville, what made him a back end of the first round type of a prospect. I see a lot of those things in Shador. But when you don't have that type of arm talent, you have to be just an unreal assassin in your anticipation to make it at the NFL level.
Starting point is 01:15:31 And so it's a tough ask to say, yes, that is Shador Sanders 100%. And that's why I've got a little bit of worries about him. But yeah, that's where I've got him on this list. So you want to go to Quinn next? Yeah, let's do Quinn and then we'll finish with Carson Beck. Yep. So Quinn ends up being, uh,
Starting point is 01:15:51 my second, my QB two here. I really haven't for me. I think him, I'd have him and Sanders graded the same, right? Like back at second round, top around three.
Starting point is 01:16:02 That's that might even be being polite. I'm more excited about the potential of Wigman, but you have to give Quinn credit for how he's developed and what he showed last year, even with some shortcomings. I thought he really had a good command of Texas' offense. I think he operates that short horizontal passing game and quickness, and he's on target
Starting point is 01:16:24 with these catch and run throws. He looked really comfortable off play action where he gets moving and the timing seemed built in. He had 125.8 NFL passer rating in 2023 off play action. Like he was really, really comfortable off of that. I think he has lateral agility and twitch in the pocket to create space where Quinn needs to take his next step to be this second round pick is he needs to get bigger, more mass on his frame. The mechanics
Starting point is 01:16:51 are unconventional that can lead to off target placement. When he follows through, he opens up his entire front side and the arm starts to angle differently. And, and that can lead to his misses and seven passes batted down at the line of scrimmage because of that throwing style he throws low sometimes and passes get knocked down i thought there was added hang time on passes down the field that allowed some defenders to recover he can miss defenders in in zone coverage in the middle of the field and lead to some scary takeaways or should be takeaways and And the same thing you said about Jackson Dart, I wrote down for Quinn Ewers.
Starting point is 01:17:26 There are clear predetermined throws on tape no matter what the coverage dictates, no matter what the coverage dictates. So he's not your prototypical QB2 in a classroom, because I think with his funky mechanics and his lack of consistent downfield throwing, it's hard to say Quinn yours to me will be this round one quarterback unless he takes really big strides this year. And he is a young player, so he could, but I think what stood out to me, Trevor, is that he really had a
Starting point is 01:17:57 mental grasp on this offense. And he is a, he's not the biggest quarterback, but he's not small where you can see things be compact and quick and twitchy and the foot speed. So I really like the strides he took. And once again, I'm not this big Quinn Ewers guy, but I came away from the film being like, you know what? It was a little better than I thought. Quinn's an enigma, man. And that's why I got him at QB7 because I don't really know what to do with him.
Starting point is 01:18:23 He might have the best arm in the class. He's got a crazy arm. I remember going to a high school quarterback camp before he went to Ohio State. And I remember it was a Steve Clarkson quarterback camp. And at that camp was Sam Howell. It was DJ Uyunglele. I think Bryce Young was there. And none of those guys who were in college were necessarily like throwing in the camp.
Starting point is 01:18:46 But, you know, they throw after practice or they throw after some of the drills or whatever. Quinn might have had the best arm of all of them. I think DJ Uyunglele is probably the only one who had a better arm than him. And this was when he was 17. And like Sam Howell was entering arm second or third year at UNC and Quinn it's I I almost just wonder if like he was really bored before he got to Texas like he's so much more talented than everybody that he would have went up against in high school I just wonder if he developed all of these weird habits of just being like yeah I don't need to set my feet yeah I don't need a throwing motion
Starting point is 01:19:24 it looks like a trick shot thrower. He looks like a dude. Perfect. Yes. 100. Dude, I completely agree. And honestly, he gets away with it way more than he should. And that's because his arm is so great.
Starting point is 01:19:35 And that's why he's going to be such a tough player to kick. Now you mentioned a lot of the shortcomings from him. Obviously you see a lot of, I mean mean some of the touch throws that he has are brilliant and some of the backyard just play style that he has is is great his his playoff play action is really nice as play when he doesn't have play action it's not great it's only a 70.9 pff grade when he doesn't have play action so that's something that needs to get better but overall i think the the my biggest issue with ewers is i have yet to see him play with true confidence outside of that alabama game was it last year two years ago when xavier worthy caught the
Starting point is 01:20:14 the deep ball yes it must have been last year right eh was it yes yes right yes because bryce young played at texas so it was last. Outside of that Bama game this past year, I have yet to see a game where he was like truly confident. There's way too much hesitation in his game. He's hesitant about how he saw the defense pre-snap. He's hesitant about which wide receiver he needs to go to at what time. And you can tell that there are some times
Starting point is 01:20:41 where he's on a primary read. He realizes that guy's not open. He sees the secondary read, and it's like he realizes, oh, shit. Like, he was open. Like, that was like, I just had to. Now what? And then he goes, well, now what? And either it's like a crazy throw or he's trying to escape the pocket or something.
Starting point is 01:21:01 He's got to play with more confidence. There's got to be so much less hesitation in his game in 2023 and if there is man obviously like he he has all the arm talent in the world but there's also a lot of inconsistencies with Quinn and I cannot help but wonder why Arch Manning didn't transfer and I wonder if it is because behind the scenes there's a chance that quinn's not even starting quarterback midway through that season i kind of had the opposite thought i thought after the year quinn was going to transfer and it's not that he had a bad year at texas it's just the arch effect right but he stayed is what i'm saying and it went when quinn announced that he was going to stay why didn't Arch leave
Starting point is 01:21:45 and I get it it's like okay yeah sure he wanted to go to Texas but you only get so many years in college football even with the COVID year even with the redshirt year so I cannot help but think he doesn't transfer because there are people there that believe that Arch is going to start midway through the season and I think if that's going to be the case, if that is really true, I'm not trying to speak it into existence. I'm just wondering, I'm thinking out loud, is it because there are inconsistencies that people maybe believe that Quinn is just naturally not going to get over?
Starting point is 01:22:16 I don't know. Quinn should have went back to Ohio State. I mean, I'm serious. No knock on Will Howard, but. Yeah, it would have been QB1 there. So Quinn is just all over the place. People who are listening to this podcast, please let us know what you guys think of Quinn.
Starting point is 01:22:30 I'm very curious what the chat thinks. Are you all in on him? Are you like, yeah. How can you be though? Even me having QB2, I have cold feet. I know, but it's just, the arm talent is that good. And I just wonder where people are. Sound off in the comment section.
Starting point is 01:22:44 Your QB1, my QB2on beck from the university of georgia i think there's a chance that carson beck would have been a top 50 pick if he would have declared after last year um he certainly would have been like if if if carson beck's in this class i wonder if bo nicks goes 12 you know that's interesting i because Because not that I think that Carson Beck was better than Bo Nix. I think I would have had Bo Nix ahead of Carson Beck. But if Beck's in this class, do the Broncos basically like trade back
Starting point is 01:23:16 and take one of these guys later in the draft? Is it a little bit later of a domino with these quarterbacks? So what did you think of Beck, who was a first year starter as a red shirt junior last year? He's actually sneaky been around college football a while. I thought in a lot of good ways, he was, it was kind of boring, right? He is like he played boring football and that's okay. Almost 4,000 passing yards, 24 touchdowns, six picks, 17 big time throws, 11 turnover worthy plays.
Starting point is 01:23:46 He enrolled at UGA in January of 2020, a four-star recruit, but the number nine pro style quarterback in his recruiting class. He was initially committed to Florida to play baseball as a pitcher, but even he said baseball got boring. Listen, as a player, the ball effortlessly flies out of this guy's hand. He doesn't need a lot of space to get the ball out with velocity. There are flashes of throwing with anticipation and understanding when routes are going to initiate separation. And that really stood out to me and mattered to me. You can tell he was coached by Todd Munkin for a couple years there, right? And he's got enough mobility to roll out.
Starting point is 01:24:23 And the ball doesn't lose any life when he's thrown on the run. He averaged 11.1 yards per attempt off play action and mechanically just looks very comfortable. I thought he was surgical on third down against Auburn, Kentucky, Ole Miss, and Tennessee. Like the pre-snap awareness, he knew exactly what to do on third. And it is beautiful to watch him just go to work on third down against those scc teams the weakness is the release isn't slow but it's a bit funky and he can fall into just being this upper body thrower um he was protected extremely well in 2023 shocking georgia who just turns out first round tackles like georgia good football players weird pressured on only 19 of his drop
Starting point is 01:25:03 backs he should see some more adversity in 2024. Has been able to play a relatively safe brand of football because of the team he's on. Checkdowns could use a change up every now and then. A little bit too much fastball on the checkdowns. I thought against Alabama, you saw the lack of special creating skills. When things got tighter and coverage got stickier.
Starting point is 01:25:22 Yeah. And the teams are going to be like, okay, how high can we take Carson Beck things got tighter and coverage got stickier yeah and and the teams are gonna be like okay how high can we take carson beck if that's something that we just don't have in our back pocket with him right right yeah i don't really see that with him he's still a good quarterback prospect but he's just not this creator to me so his comp for me his early comp that i wrote down is jared got 100 that's percent. That's the guy. That is the guy. You know, and I know that's a little taboo around these parts because Detroit Lions fans
Starting point is 01:25:48 don't like me right now because I ranked Goff 16th in the NFL going into the season. But I still like Goff, obviously. You know, I think you guys are going to yell at me and think that I don't. But there's a lot of similarities to how Carson Beck played last year to the success in the style and the prototype that Jared Goff is. You mentioned it. I mean, like when things are clean for him, I mean, he is an excellent passer. Elite PFF grades in clean pocket, standard dropbacks, early down passes when there's no play action. When there
Starting point is 01:26:15 was play action, he had an adjusted completion percentage above 80% on the year, which is great. Time to throw 2.93. That ball's getting out of his hands quick avoiding negatives 97th percentile sack rate 93rd percentile look at this dude go now you look at where the deficiencies are and they're exactly what you mentioned scramble grade 37.4 it's not there play under pressure 57.5 and i wrote that in just the film notes weaknesses as well. Got happy feet and nerves early in the early parts of 2023. And then when he was pressured against some of the better teams at the ending part of the year.
Starting point is 01:26:52 So that's into it. But hey, he's got a little sidearm quick release to him. He's light on his feet. Throws a tight controlled spiral. Good zip in the middle of the field. Flashes really impressive anticipation, especially as the year went on. Ability to throw with touch and feel consistently,
Starting point is 01:27:07 which you'd love to see from the quarterback position. A lot of things to like from Carson Beck as a passer. Just can he be more of a creator? What is he like when things break down? And so to me, that's exactly what Jared Goff is, man. If you give Jared Goff kind of a clean pocket, a good situation, man, he will make magic happen for you.
Starting point is 01:27:26 But if you force him to move, things get a little bit squirrely. So Jared Goff, obviously... Good use of squirrely. A hyper successful quarterback right now in this league. And that is what I think of Carson Beck, man.
Starting point is 01:27:37 I think Carson Beck... Now, Goff... I don't know. I think Goff has a better arm than Carson Beck does. Beck's is good, though. But Beck does have a good arm. Now, I thought his arm was mid when I was watching him initially.
Starting point is 01:27:50 Like, I was two games in. I was like, I think his arm's mid. And then I kept watching. I was like, all right, you're a little bit better than this. Maybe it was just, hey, the confidence later in the year. Because I always try to watch games in progressions, beginning of the year, middle of the year. And I try to, you know, fluctuate with, hey, a good game here, a bad game here, but I always try to make it in progression to see how much you grew throughout the season. I think he grew well and the confidence was there. So I'm really excited to see him this upcoming season, but there we go. Okay. That is the quarterback episode. Just to recap, I'll give you my top 10 and then Connor will give you his top
Starting point is 01:28:21 10 and number 10 for me was Arizona's Noah Fafita. Nine was Houston's Donovan Smith. Eight was Ole Miss' Jackson Dart. Seven was Texas' Quinn Ears. Six, Jalen Milrow from Alabama. Five was Kansas' Jalen Daniels. Four was Florida's Graham Mertz. Jadore Sanders from Colorado at number three. Carson Beck from Georgia at number two.
Starting point is 01:28:38 And QB1, baby! Connor Wegman from Texas A&M at number one. Ten for me, Jalen Milrow, Alabama. Nine, Donovan Smith out of Houston. Eight, Noah Fafita from Arizona. Seven, Jackson Dart, Ole Miss. Six, Riley Leonard now at Notre Dame. Five, the wild man Cam Ward now at Miami.
Starting point is 01:29:00 Four, Connor Wegman, Texas A&M. Three, Shadur Sanders, Colorado. Two, Quinn Ewers Texas one Carson Beck out of Georgia we want to know what you guys think as always it's been so long since we have heard from you guys we know you got quarterback takes we know you guys are big college football fans as well as NFL draft fans let us know what you thought of these quarterbacks doesn't have to be all of them if you got you know specific takes on one of these guys sound off we'd love to hear it as always we love reading as many comments as possible respond to as many as possible it's been a while so we're
Starting point is 01:29:27 trying to get the comment section uh extra we'll be dumpster diving it's gonna be fun for this episode uh if you got early rankings for some of these quarterbacks fire them off give us the list we'd love to see it as well i'd love for the fellow addicts to get into some conversations about these quarterbacks because it might not be as star-studded at the top yet. But man, it's deep. A lot of opinions on a lot of these guys. So let us know what you think. Best way to do that, YouTube comments. YouTube.com backslash at NFL Stock Exchange.
Starting point is 01:29:53 We are so close to 30,000 subscribers. Man, our goal before the draft last year was 20,000 by the draft. And you guys absolutely blew that out of the water. It's been so cool watching this community grow. I'm excited to kind of continue that conversation and everything with you for this draft cycle and this summer specifically. If you're audio only, we still love you.
Starting point is 01:30:12 At Tampa Bay Trey, at Connor J. Rogers on both Instagram and Twitter. That's how you can hit us up. Get your opinions out there from listening to the show. Connor, got anything else before we get out of here? Happy to be back, man. Can't wait to see this series roll again for yet another year. Excited to get everyone else's thoughts as well and i'm sure we'll move to
Starting point is 01:30:28 a skill position group for next week yeah we will uh we will hopefully have a summer scouting episode for you every single week from now until the start of the season so that's what we're going to be going for oh and also we'll hopefully have some bonus episodes here sprinkled in throughout the summer if there's certain topics that you'd love to hear from us like redrafts or just like anything we would love to hear it hit us again like hit us up in the comments whether it's this episode or future episodes if you think of one we'll try to read them if we can make it happen we'll make it happen i'm trevor sicken but that is connor rogers thank you guys so much for watching and listening to the nfl stock exchange podcast see you guys next week you

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