NFL Stock Exchange: An NFL Draft Podcast - 277. How Bad Does Your Team Need A New QB in 2025?

Episode Date: October 8, 2024

Trevor Sikkema and Connor Rogers give DEFCON ratings for all 32 teams in the NFL on whether or not they need a new quarterback at all or a lot in 2025.

Welcome to the NFL Stock Exchange podcast. In this episode, we're taking a look at all the quarterback situations in the NFL, all 32 teams, and giving them a DEFCON rating 1 through 5. How ready do you need to be to go to war for a quarterback in the upcoming offseason and 2025 quarterback class? We're going to dig into it. I'm Trevor Sikama. With me, as always, is Connor Rogers.

Let's ring the bell. Welcome to the opening bell of the NFL Stock Exchange podcast. I'm Trevor Sycamore, that is Connor Rogers, joining you on an early week edition of the show where we figured we'd talk a little quarterbacks. We're five weeks into the NFL season, six weeks into the college football season. We sort of updated the total team needs a couple of weeks ago. We did a mock draft and in the mock draft, we sort of talked about some QB needed teams, but it's the most important position, right? And there's so much parity between what people think of how many quarterbacks to go in the first round or even teams that might be desperate enough to pick some of these guys. Cause I think

that it all kind of goes hand in hand, but we're going to get into the bottom of it we're going to give you a DEFCON rating for your favorite football team on whether or not we think they need a quarterback going into the 2025 season Connor I think it's give me a fun one how you doing my friend it really is it's funny you had to text me you're like DEFCON 1 is the most alarming DEFCON 5 is they will alarming. DEFCON five is they will not need a quarterback. We go through this exercise, I swear, like three times a year as we try to use DEFCON as a reference on the show. So I did appreciate that because honestly, I forgot again. And I think it's just a really good way to break down who's going to be in on

this quarterback class, who might be in on different tiers of this quarterback class? And then who, as a franchise, has the most stability at the most important position in football? Yes. Yeah. And we'll get into a lot of talk of like, you know, contracts, situations, how quarterbacks are playing right now, whether we think it's a short term thing, a long term thing. So we're going to get into this with every single team. We're going to cover all 32 teams in the NFL. I'm actually going to, like we do with the Mock Draft Simulator, I'm going to pull this up, and we are going to read the definition of DEFCON so everybody knows what we are talking about here.

Okay? So here, this is Wikipedia. And, you know, we've evolved. We can use Wikipedia. I know they frowned upon it when you were in school. But Wikipedia is an established organization now all right defcon so there's no confusion throughout the show the defense readiness condition defcon is an alert state used by the united states armed forces for security reasons the u.s military does not announce defcon levels to the public

we're going to announce defcon levels quarterbacks here on the show the defcon system was developed by joint chief of staff and unified and and unified and specified combat commands it prescribes five graduated levels of readiness state of alertness for the u.s military military, all right? It increases in severity from DEFCON 5, which is least severe, to DEFCON 1, the most severe, to match the varying military situations with DEFCON 1 signaling the impending outbreak of nuclear warfare. And of course, you know,

that's, you know, exactly how we're going to parallel quarterback talks because sometimes when you read Twitter's responses to fans, they feel like they're about to dive into nuclear warfare when the quarterback's not playing well. So yeah, that's the parallel that we're going with here. Connor, we'll go by divisions. I feel like that's the easiest way to do this. Yeah. AFC East, as we always kind of start off with the AFC East. But real quick, I'll just go through it and then I think we could jump into it. That's probably the best way to do it. We didn't talk this out throughout the show,

so you guys are in for a treat. Buffalo Bills, it's DEFCON 5. It's the least severe. You got Josh Allen. He's a superhero playing quarterback in this league. Miami Dolphins, I have as DEFCON 2, which we can get into. New England Patriots, I also have as DEFCON 5. Not worried about it at all,

because you have Drake May on the roster. It doesn't look great. You have the same play. Yeah, but I've got him his DEFCON 5 not worried about it at all because you have Drake May on the roster it doesn't look great play yeah right yeah but I got him I've got him at DEFCON 5 and then the Jets I have at DEFCON 2 interesting so you tell me what do you got what do you got for this division so we're doing this by our own personal feelings too right not trying to necessarily read what a team is doing or maybe both. Oh, yeah, yeah, yeah. No, no, no. I think that this is what we feel about the team.

Yeah. So I had, I did factor in a little bit about the necessity for a backup based on your quarterback's injury risk. Okay. Yeah. So I actually had the, I actually had the Bills at four

and it has nothing to do with josh allen josh allen is josh allen is the you know second quarterback taken in a league redraft over and over again right um i mean obviously you can make the argument for lamar and things like that but as it stands the reason reason I put them at four is Allen is, as we've seen over the years, a wild player. He takes some of the biggest hits at the position in football and credit to him at, you know, six, five, 240 pounds. He gets up from a lot of those hits. He looked legitimately out cold on Sunday for a couple of seconds. Yeah, yeah.

I don't have any faith in Mitch Trubisky as a backup. So the reason I had the bills at four, and this could be really quick, is just, I think they should explore a cost effective, reliable backup option for Josh Allen in the later tier of the quarterback class. I'm not saying they're using a pick in the first three rounds on one.

It's just something with the way Allen plays as he gets older that I think for a team that is always thinking they're in a Super Bowl window, justifiably so, that's the market I would explore for the Bills. I don't hate it. Obviously, I went about this like Josh Allen, unquestioned top three quarterback in the NFL. And he is. Yeah, and he is and so I I went immediate DEFCON 5 but I can see what you are saying here and it is funny that you said this because I can already tell how we're doing these teams or even just the Buffalo Bills at all different that we're going to be a little bit different I think is good as this episode goes on so okay what about the actually before we get into the Dolphins and the Jets Patriots what was what was your... Okay, okay, so you put a five.

I think we got to see Drake May play. Yeah, okay. And the funny thing is the Patriots could be a little bit of the opposite where Jacoby Brissett, if he decides to stay there, he's a totally normal backup quarterback in the NFL. So their roster is exactly what it is at the position. Yeah, okay, all right.

So we got a four and a five there. I have the Dolphins at a two, and then I have the Jets at a two. Where did you have these teams there. I have the Dolphins at a two, and then I have the Jets at a two. Where did you have these teams? So I had the Dolphins at a three, but I do feel like I should probably gear more towards a two as I just talked to myself about the backup situation.

They've been a team without a backup. I actually don't know why they cut Mike White after all of this, to be honest with you. Jets legend. Jets legend, Mike White. Here's the hang up for me, they just paid Tua right a lot of money right so are they gonna say hey it is what it is we got to be in and get a quarterback in the first round I would have no problem with them doing that but I feel like they are I think

as long as Mike McDaniel's there they are gonna ride to ride this thing out with Tua. So I have them at a three because they still need to look at a guy for the future. And that guy can serve a purpose as a backup next year for Tua. So I have them right in the middle. I feel like they're a team that could take a quarterback on day two. You know, I have them as higher and the contract is obviously a little tricky here. Okay just sign the massive deal like you said he's got four years left on his deal he's a 35 million he's a 39 million dollar cap hit this year then it jumps up to 56 then it jumps to 53 or the gen jumps goes down to 53 and then it jumps back up to 65 million in those next four years you add then an 11 million void year at the end on top of that to kind of encapsulate the whole contract so contract wise this gets really tricky like unless Tua were to retire or there's something medically

in the contract where it's like hey I mean if this dude can't play then we kind of have an out here I have no idea if there's any sort of language in that at all but his concussion history is ugly man I mean we talked about when he got a concussion earlier this season obviously the reason he's not playing we started talking about like should the league step in right and and talk to him about retiring and the reports have come out that that's not going to happen it's it's it's to his decision but I think it's a two because like you said, there's, there's no viable backup quarterback on this roster. We are seeing that every single Sunday now.

And with the contract, the way that it is, you are, if two is healthy, you're with him for the next two ish years, at least because of how the contract is structured. I think, but I have them at a two because the concussions are dangerous,

man. And you get more susceptible to them, not only the more you have, but the more severe ones you have. So I hope Tua never has a single shot to his head ever again. Like, I hope he is completely healthy and plays another 15 years in this league. But we're seeing what it looks like. And the situation that he's currently in, we'll see, I guess what it looks like,

what he, what he is like coming back. And then, man, I hope that he has a fully healthy season, at least just this year, like get out of this year without having another concussion. But that's what would that even prove for you?

Right? Like that's not the issue with Tua. We, we got the healthy season last year and then we went right back on the rollercoaster ride again this year. It's, it's horrible. It's a shame. You're saying the season last year, and then we went right back on the rollercoaster ride again this year. It's horrible. It's a shame. You're saying the play or his concussion history? His history now. Because I also think

that his play goes into it where it's not like he's been a top five quarterback, in my opinion, when he's been healthy. But the more important part is obviously is he going to be able to be out there? So to me, given the injury history, that's why we're at DEFCON 2, man.

Because I don't know how many more hits this guy can even take. And again, like I said, the understood is that I hope he plays for a long, long, long, long time. But the situation kind of is what it is. So we're at DEFCON 2 with the Miami Dolphins. I think you convinced me on that one. I'd move up to a 2 as well. Jets, I have them as DEFCON 2 simply because Rogers one year left on his deal after this year, the money part, I don't think really matters.

The age part does 42 years old. Um, it's been a frustrating season for the jets. There's not really somebody who's on the roster, obviously, you know, they don't, they don't have Zach Wilson who's sitting there getting ready to come back in, you know, when Aaron Rogers is done. So to me, it was sort of this situation where you kind of got to think about quarter. I mean, we had the quarterback conversation with the jets for last year's draft.

Do you draft a quarterback at number 11 or somewhere, wherever you're going to pick, did the jets trade up for a quarterback in the future? And obviously they went with Lulufakshanu instead, but that's why this is a two for me, is this becomes an impending situation pretty quickly, depending on what happens with Rodgers. So it was a three for me because,

and it's hard to take him at his word, but Rodgers has been very open about playing this year and at least next year. They signed Tyrod Taylor as a backup for this year and next year. So they signed tyrod taylor as a backup for this year and next year so they built a two-year quarterback room they need to see when healthy what jordan travis looks like in a practice setting and next year's preseason and i'm not saying like we're expecting jordan travis to be something but they took him on day three of last year's draft with the hope of

let's see what he's got why we have two established quarterbacks on the roster and then after 2025 if he just doesn't have anything we're we're anything if he does like we're all in so I think it might be a year early for the Jets. I just think they're going to try to maximize the roster with Rodgers and Tyrod Taylor in 2024 and 2025. And then after 2025, they could tear this thing down all the way down from the foundation and bolts where it's a new GM, it's a new coach, they're drafting a quarterback, all those things. So I just don't think this is the year.

But I have them at a three because there's the variable that rogers retires after this year and then it's it changes really quickly the the reason why i ended up going with it too is because i also agree with you and what he has said i think the plan would be for him to play another two years but it's it's clearly pretty frustrating for them right now and the wrench that you could throw into this is if the Jets don't have a good year this year and they move on from Robert Sala I don't know I don't know if Joe Douglas would be on like with him and moving on like if it's a package deal or something but let's even say like you move on from Robert Sala that means you're moving on from Nathaniel Hackett as well like it's going to be a brand new coaching staff does Rodgers at that point think about how frustrating this past

year was and he was like I don't want to do a first time connection with a head coach thing I'm just right I'm just over it yeah so that's why it's a three for me there's that chance it's not the most likely scenario but it exists okay but even in that scenario i almost wonder and people might like laugh at this but i almost wonder are you then all in on next year's quarterback class do we think the jets are going to be picking in the top 10 uh tyrod still under contract once again they really want to see jordan tra. Yeah. And when you look at the drop-off that Florida State has had at the position this year, it at least makes you wonder, can he be something?

So, yeah, I'm right in the middle on this one. It's a three. It can go either way. All right. I went with a two. You went with a three. So there's a little bit of a difference there. Let's move on to the AFC North.

I think two teams, very easy. We can get them out of the way. Baltimore Ravens with Lamar Jackson, DEFCON 5. Joe Burrow with the Cincinnati Bengals, DEFCON 5. No variance there with those two quarterbacks. What an unbelievable football

game those two dudes put on this past weekend. Holy cow. Overtime was justified for the type of performance that both of those guys were having. And very clear examples of DEFCON 5s and quarterbacks that we hope are playing for those teams for a long, long time. Cleveland Browns. This is DEFCON 1, man. Get the nukes ready.

This is DEFCON 1. This situation sucks. There is no way around it. And we talked about it when we did team needs and we talked about it when we did the the the mock draft episode so I I'm sorry Cleveland Browns fans who are listening this episode but it's DEFCON 1 and there's a lot of context and everything that goes into this but Deshaun simply like is not good he he has had one and a half good games through five weeks of this season. The big issue, and of course, the big pushback to whether or not they would be DEFCON 1 and

so in on this upcoming quarterback class is, of course, the contract. Three more years on the deal. The cap goes from here. Here we go. The cap goes from a $27 million hit this year, which Deshaun is, to a $72 million cap hit next year and a $72 million cap hit the year after that. He is completely uncuttable until at least 2027 because he has a $172 million dead cap hit for next season if you moved on from him. And then it is a $99 million dead cap hit if you move on from him, even just the year after that. Now there's some, I'm sure, you know, if we had Brad Spielberger on here, he could probably say like, well, you know, if they release him at a certain point or they do something,

maybe you don't accelerate all that money. Maybe you can move it out from a couple of years. But the fact of the matter is his contract is basically uncuttable over the last two years but he is playing some of the worst quarterback in the league if not the worst at this point in time i feel like bryce young might be the only one who was playing worst ball this season than deshaun watson is so it's defcon one man i don't care about the contract like you said we need the nuke defense systems up and ready for this one because it's high alert. It's not good in Cleveland. It's terrible in Cleveland right now.

And it's at the point where you probably just got to bite the bullet on this one and, you know, get him out of the building. Eat all this money for a while you're going to be really hamstrung for a while and turn the page to a new era you just wonder is everybody going down with this ship right is the owner Stefanski clearly and you tweeted this Trevor has no ability to change quarterback no yeah and that's the that's that's the tough dynamic sometimes when it comes to coaches and star players specifically quarterbacks quarterbacks mean more than coaches do most of the time almost 99 of the time they mean more than the coaches do Sean makes at least five or six times a year what Kevin Stefanski makes just the value in the

organization in that alone right so you know he gets asked afterwards after that game hey are you know are you thinking about making a change of quarterback and he's like no Deshaun's our quarterback he had like you said he has no control over that he can he can like send a suggestion and the suggestion's probably hey this guy's not playing good we're not going to win football games here's the evidence of it but the only people that can bench to sean watson right now are the haslam's it's the only people who can do it they have 230 million of their dollars invested in him and so i i don't really know where this ends but i will say this getting to more like the DEFCON 1

for the situation and kind of like giving you a positive outlook, whether Deshaun's on the team or not, whether you cut him and eat all that dead money or not, they are at this point in time, five weeks through the season, picking number four overall in the draft. Right.

If you select a rookie quarterback that is basically your best case scenario because then as you try to recoup all of the dead money that it might take to move on from Deshaun Watson that it would take to move on from Deshaun Watson you get a cap controlled rookie contract for a quarterback that you are hopefully playing for the next four to five years at the very least and then hopefully another contract thereafter that so it's defcon one because even with all the money i understand it the only life boat you have is drafting a quarterback and having them on a rookie contract so and i'll be fascinated to see if i don't think this will happen but if there was a time.

If I was an agent, I would want nothing to do with my quarterback going there. Nothing to do with it. I mean, when you just look at what's happened to the offense from a roster standpoint, I like Stefanski a lot. I think that I think Stefanski is a good coach. Obviously, he's being dealt not a not great hand. And the offensive line has been beat up and it sucked. And the wide receivers. Right. And the wide receivers that been beat up and it sucked. And the wide receivers. Right.

And the wide receivers that they brought in. And older. Right. Well, Judy's not old, but he's Jared Judy. I mean, okay. Yeah. Yeah. He's fine.

I don't know, man. I don't think that'll happen. I think whoever they draft will just go there. But it could be a tough road for that player, in my opinion. I think Stefanski helps, but he's got a lot of work to do around him. Steelers, I have as DEFCON 2. Okay, I had them as a 3. Okay, I had the 2 specifically. There's a little bit of hindsight from what we saw on Sunday Night Football with the Dallas Cowboys.

But I think DEFCON 2 is sort of insulting to how well Justin Fields has played. And I want to fully admit that but they almost went with Russell Wilson to start the year anyways and I don't really know what this quarterback room looks like with both of these guys on essentially one-year deals for this season you know Fields in the last year of his rookie contract Russell Wilson's on a one-year deal the offense isn't good enough right now they're sort of playing the brand of football that the Pittsburgh Steelers and Mike Tomlin typically want to play run the football play really good defense and then like let's get some splash plays out of our quarterback

and it's just not good enough you again you watch the Sunday Night Football game Dallas tried to give you that whole game they had the turnovers they had bad defense like Dallas tried to give you that game but you did not have enough firepower on the offense to capitalize on it. I think receiver goes into that. I'm not trying to say that it's all in the quarterback, but are either of these guys, Russell Wilson and Justin Fields going to do enough for this Steelers team to say,

yeah, okay, we'll sign one of you back and you're absolutely 100% the quarterback next year. Cause it feels like five weeks in, even for as good as Justin Fields has played. yeah okay we'll sign one of you back and you're absolutely 100 the quarterback next year because it feels like five weeks in even for as good as justin fields has played if the proof is in the pudding sort of for the results of the wins and losses you might be at a point where even if you bring justin fields back they're probably bringing someone else in they're drafting somebody somewhere

so i'm with the two here for the steelers. Yeah, it's tricky. I'm hoping Justin Fields can play his way into potentially being the guy for them. The thing with the Steelers that always trips me up is they're just always too good to be in a position to get a guy. Right. So they're going to come to the crossroads where, say, they win nine games this year. And say the three quarterbacks they like go in front of them. Do they just kind of find a way to keep fields and run it back and they'll still take a quarterback but fields is still there the Steelers were a classic three out of the out of the five scale for me right in the middle because there's just so much season left to be played to really get an answer on this yeah yeah i i wonder if how uncertain the quarterbacks might be could actually play into their favor right because if this is a team that some guys fall

yeah you know it's it's not like oh we're not picking in the top 10 we have no chance of getting a quarterback this year we might get one quarterback top 10 we might get one quarterback top 20 i don't even know how this class is going to play out um i think there's some guys that you could take some swings on in the top 20 but i don't know what do you pay fields yeah so he's looked better than ever this year for sure 100 and that's why i don't want defcon 2 feels insulting to how well fields has played or at least improved i shouldn't say and it just feels like the inevitable Russell Wilson conversation will not go away.

Right. Which I don't really agree with. I don't know. Russ moves the needle for them, but it's just when you have two quarterbacks and you don't play a perfect game, this conversation just inevitably happens, whether it's fair or not.

They also need way better wide receivers. So they have nothing like the whole Pickens drama now with him, not it's fair or not. They also need way better wide receivers. Dude, they have nothing. The whole Pickens drama now with him not playing the full snap count. Yeah, I don't understand, man. There's just a lot of issues with the offense. Strange. So quarterback's not the biggest issue, but I gave him a DEFCON 2, you gave him a DEFCON 3.

You're soft. You're getting soft on these teams. Yeah, yeah, yeah. I am. Let's see what happens here see what happens jim uh okay whether it's a touchdown a td a tutty take it into the house in for six whatever you want to call a touchdown one thing is for sure they matter more drafting sportsbook an official sports betting partner of the nfl on the ground in the air special teams

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AFC South. This one's a pretty easy one for me. Houston Texans. DEFCON 5. Yes, easy. Indianapolis Colts. I have DEFCON 4. Okay.

Jacksonville Jaguars, I have as DEFCON 4 as well. Yeah, me too. I mean, it could be a 5 just because they signed Trevor Lawrence. If they blow everything up with the coaching staff, it's obviously going to be still built around Lawrence anyways. So me saying that, I feel like it should be a 5. Even if you don't love how Lawrence has progressed to this point in his NFL career he's not going anywhere for this team so that one probably should have been a five but I wanted to recognize how Lawrence hasn't exactly become who we've wanted him to become so far

in his NFL career and then the Tennessee Titans I don't have as like nuclear apocalypse I have them as DEFCON 2 I don't know where you have so do I okay I think we we had everything the same except I had the Colts at a five instead of a four I'm worried about Richardson man I get it I get it I just not only is he hurt but like when he's been out there he's he is he is still so high variance. He could be the 30th best quarterback in the rest of the games he plays this year, and they're giving him year three. For sure. Okay, so look at the prospect profile. You're right.

If we're doing this about DEFCON for the quarterback situation going into next year, which is, you're correct, this is how we should be doing it. I should have them as a five. I should have them as a five. I should have them as a five. I'm just worried about AR at this point. Of course, I'm worried about a lot of different situations. I'm worried about Drake May probably making his debut against the Texans with that Patriots offense around.

I hope not. But I have the Titans as a two as well. That's probably our most interesting conversation on the board, right? Yeah, I think so. So I have them as a two as well. That's probably our most interesting conversation on the board, right? Yeah, I think so. So I have them as a two, not a one, because Will Evans is wild, but it's like I said when we were doing the team needs in the mock draft episode. I'm not ready to totally give up on it.

I'm not. He got hurt. He got hurt. That's why Mason Rudolph comes in the game. And then after the game, Brian Callahan immediately goes, no, no, no. Will's the starting quarterback when he's healthy. Like he understands this season is the journey.

It's the Will Levis journey. We're all on it. We took the stuff. We're walking in the woods. It's a spiritual journey. We're all hallucinating. That's what we're on here. So I think that I'm not ready to say that it's like,

yes, they are 100% going to be in on the quarterback class. They had a bye week this week, so they're not as low on the draft order or high on the draft order, actually, within the top five as they could be, given their record. But I'm not ready to give up on Levis. I'm not. He does some things that starting NFL quarterbacks do at a high level when it comes to the arm strength, being able to layer throws, attacking the intermediate and deep levels of the field and even attack over the middle he just he's got the boneheaded plays everybody remembers but that's where i'm at with the titans defcon 2 and i'm for a minute yeah i um i'm with you on a lot of that i think we just we need to see will levis play this year right and i understand that we're on a two which is the scale trending towards this team. I'll have to look elsewhere at quarterback, but it hasn't reached. I think a one is, you know, right?

The combo we had around the Browns with Deshaun Watson. Deshaun Watson has stunk for a long time now with the Browns and is getting worse week after week. It feels like with Will Levis, we're just kind of on a roller coaster right now. We don't know if he's not the guy. We don't feel great about it, even going back to his prospect profile. But he still deserves the time to show some of the flashes that he has had this year. I agree.

I am curious. Any Titans fans who might be watching or listening to this show, do you feel the same way? Because it's sort of different when we've got no dog in the fight. Neither of us are Titans fans. So it might be a little bit different I wonder if Titans fans agree with us or if they just go no we watch this guy in the preseason we watch him through training camp we've watched him already we watch him a little bit last year moving on we're a DEFCON 1 we're ready for you know all out warfare warfare for a new QB next season I'm curious so please let me know i would i would love to know but the other ones yeah i think are pretty easy what did you have jackson villette

do you have them five or four four was it was just because of the lawrence thing or what yeah it's just it's not where it needs to be but the reality is they've already kind of dug in on this yeah so do i think they're going to take a quarterback no but i can't sit here and call we called joe burrow and lamar jackson situations fives i don't think trevor lawrence deserves to be in that breath right now i think that that's fair i really do so he i mean he signed a five-year contract extension so he has a straight up contract with active years until 2030 um and he doesn't really get flexible until 2028 so it's like this again this for next season's purposes i'm glad you had him before so we could kind of bring this up and have the trevor lawrence conversation because

it feels like this season things aren't going well with doug peterson he doesn't really trust the offense and how press tay Taylor's calling it. You know, he's pressing things now at this point. You're seeing him miss high. You're seeing the footwork kind of regress a little bit. You can tell he's under a lot of pressure. He signs the contract now. Not only was it his team before, now it's his team more than ever.

The team's not playing well. He feels like he's got to shoulder a lot of that. And you just see him pressing, honestly, a lot this season. And so some of those fundamentals and some of those consistency parts of his game are taking a are taking a step back and um i think it was worth both of us putting him at a four but i for situation standpoint i mean they're zero percentage in the quarterback class coming up so could have very well been. A DEFCON 5 there for Jacksonville. AFC West. Denver Broncos. I have as a DEFCON 4. Me too.

Okay. Okay. All right. All right. So we see Bo Nix the same. Three game win streak, Bo Nix. That's right. People forget.

Did enjoy him, you know, clapping back at Sean Payton. Dude is great. I loved it. I'm serious. Can I just say this? I don't know if Bo Nix is going to turn out to be an all pro or not. All right. I don't know if he's going to be a pro bowler.

Tyler Huntley was a pro bowler. I think it is. All due respect. I was reminded that Vince Young was a pro bowler. I don't know if you forgot that or not, but Vince Young had one year with the Titans. He had a crazy run. He played well enough to where i think there were like two dropouts and he got to play in a pro bowl so you know

was josh freeman a pro bowler no i don't think he was but he did have a nuclear year 2010 was not i think i blacked out that entire season so you would have to look up and tell me if the team that i grew up rooting for he ended up making a pro bowl he didn't but i feel like the pro bowl had some more respect for itself back then yeah so that's probably why yeah um so look i don't know if nix is ever going to send at that level it feels like it's just the easy thing to do to be like haha bo nix look at him fail bo nix is doing good things this season. He was even doing some good things amidst the first couple of games, which were bad. There were catastrophic things that

happened. He was missing deep. He didn't have control of the offense. He's a rookie starting week one. Like I think that it was just, it was annoying me. Not even as somebody who like ranked Bo decently high last year, but one, we expect way too much out of these quarterbacks anyways. And it's like if they don't come out and they don't play a perfect game or something at the beginning of the season, the bar is just too high. When you are watching rookie quarterbacks in the first half of their rookie season, you have to take away the positives. Yes, the negatives exist, and there's probably going to be more bad than good.

But are there positive things that you can build upon? Yes, the negatives exist, and there's probably going to be more bad than good. But are there positive things that you could build upon? That's what's actually worth analyzing when it comes to rookie quarterbacks. It's not the overall, like, did they get the win or did they get the loss? Did they pass for more yards than Joe Burrow? Did they have more big-time throws than Josh Allen? Like, it's unrealistic standards. They're going to fail more than they're going to succeed.

They're rookie quarterbacks. It's just what happens. It's why what Jaden Daniels is doing this year they're going to succeed. They're rookie quarterbacks. It's just what happens. It's why what Jaden Daniels is doing this year is just phenomenally over the bar and worth the praise. So I just want to kind of like go on a mini Bo rant where it's like, hey, I understand it's not perfect. But like he is playing okay. And there are good things that you can point to. So I feel like people just miss that because they just want to go like lol look at bo nix and look at this interception thing through he's he's not horrendous i say that he's probably going to lay a giant egg this weekend and people are going to

come back and come at me but that's my quarterback ran i feel like i've been doing that a bunch lately but your all-time famous quote from about a year ago bo nix could turn randomly turn back into a pumpkin at any point so great a children's story yeah okay so for me all right chiefs five yeah very clear yeah chargers five chargers five yep uh raiders defcon one all right oh yeah pull the pull the alarm 100 i looked this up while you were talking a couple of minutes ago. The exercise term for being in DEFCON 1 is a cocked pistol, okay? That is what we are in at this point for the Las Vegas Raiders

and their quarterback situation. The pistol is cocked. It is locked and loaded. It is ready to fire for whatever quarterback they can best get their hands on for next season. It's just not good enough with Gardner, Mitch, you and Nate McConnell.

So they are, they are DEFCON one for me. Easy. No brainer. They know it, right? They absolutely know it. I mean,

you see, even see the video of Mark Davis telling Shadur something along the lines of he could even be the next Raiders quarterback. It's just, wait, that happened. Yeah, it was,

I don't, I want to have it exactly. the next Raiders quarterback. It's just... Wait, that happened? Yeah, it was... I don't... I want to have it exactly how it was said, but it was... Oh, I can't... Oh, who knows? You might be home right now,

he said to Shudder. Wow. Yeah. Wow. That's a Bleacher Report tweet. Interesting. Very interesting. Yeah, they're getting their hands on

whatever quarterback they possibly can. Right. They need stability at that position. They're a one. Yep. It's very clear. They're the easiest one in the whole exercise to me. Easier than the Browns.

The Browns have heaps of money they need to figure out. The Raiders are just like, well, we don't got anyone unless Aiden O'Connell goes nuclear when we put him in. Unless Aiden O'Connell takes a DEFCON rating and was like, no, you're preparing for nuclear warfare for somebody else. No, here you go. To Denzel Washington, where he just takes the gun

and immediately points it at somebody else. That's what he has to do. What movie is that? I haven't seen that movie. People are going to yell at me for that. It's not Man on Fire, right? what movie is that i haven't seen that movie people are gonna yell at me for that it's not man on fire right look brother no i haven't seen it i've only seen denzel has such a a deep catalog that i truly mix up his iconic scenes at this point man on fire training day no i think it's training day is it people the people in the comments are just gonna be furious right now i apologize look yell at us and that's fine well you know we one day we'll just we'll just rank the denzel catalog on this

show that would be elite that's summer scouting content we'll do that for yeah that or no notes we'll just rank yeah catalog yeah yeah that would be a good that would be a good one and then we'd have to you know watch them so then people wouldn't be able to yell us anymore um hey obviously there's a lot of craziness that's going on with this quarterback class we're getting into it there's all sorts of stuff that equalizer what do you mean what is oh that's from the yes yes we got there eventually we got there eventually people have already screamed at their you know radios or headphones or whatever so i appreciate you you saving our butts there a little bit but look they call the NFL the greatest reality TV show of all time.

It's very, very true. And to keep up with it, we'll be listening to a new podcast called The Offensive Line with Annie Agar this season. Annie is an NFL insider. You probably know her from her uncomfortable team meetings on social series that you see on Instagram, on TikTok, on Twitter, all that good stuff.

She's doing that stuff all the time. On The Offensive Line podcast, she kicks it back for the NFL stars and celeb superfans throughout the season to unpack the week's lines, odds, spreads with the usual brand of sharp wit and banter that you're used to from her content. The podcast is packed with humor. It is

a must-listen to keep up with all the latest news and NFL culture throughout the NFL season. You can follow the Offensive Line on the Wondery app or wherever you get your podcasts. You can access bonus episodes line on the Wondery app or wherever you get your podcast. You can access bonus episodes and listen ad-free right now by joining the Wondery Plus app. Flip it over to the NFC East. Dallas Cowboys?

Five. Five. All right. All right. No Dak haters. Commanders. Five. Commanders.

Berm. Five. Five. For how MVP candidate Jaden Daniels is playing. All right, no Dak haters. Commanders, five. Commanders. Berm, five. For how MVP candidate Jaden Daniels is playing. Yeah, I said it. Crazy. Giants are a one, right?

Yep. Okay, all right, all right. So we're at DEFCON 1. It doesn't matter how well Daniel Jones plays. Like, that storybook is over. I think so. Giants are going to get a new quarterback. I think so, too, because the Giants are probably going to get rid of a lot of people this offseason.

Right? I don't. Brian D'Abel's coaching for his life right now. That win in Seattle is a huge win. Big win. Huge win for them. I think Brian D'Abel is not a bad coach. No, I don't think so either. That's why I think he's disappointing. I think he's coaching for his life though. No, I agree with you 100% and that's why if

Brian D'Aball gets fired, he should get interviews to be a head coach somewhere next year. I think he will. Not just like offensive coordinator. I think he was dealt a bad hand. Not that he's been perfect, but it just hasn't gone well for them. But hey, man, for you to march into Seattle, a team that's playing really, really well,

Mike McDaniel's coaching really well. No Malik neighbors. And Tyrone Tracy, pod alum. Well, they were forced to give their best running back the ball, which helped. Oh, yeah, because Singletary got hurt. Singletary was hurt. So it's like, oh, we got to play Tyrone Tracy now. Wait, he's our best running back on the team by a mile.

It just makes you laugh every time how often this happens. The New York Giants. So Danielones has two years left on his deal um he's 47 mil on the cap this year then it goes to 41 next year then it goes to 58 the dead cap gets much much much lower after this season you can save 19 million on the cap if you cut them and then 47 mil on the cap if you cut them the year after that so there's an out after this year. It's DEFCON 1. I, again, think there's going to be a lot of changes in New York for next season. And any time that you have regime changes and you have a chance to sort of marry that with a quarterback change, you're going to do it, right?

And I think that that's why the Giants are probably sitting there at DEFCON 1 to get a good look at this upcoming quarterback class. What do you have the Eagles as? A four. It was shocking how difficult they were. I also have them a four. But you wanted to make it a three. I wanted to make it a three because Hurts is not playing well.

And Hurts did not play well down the stretch of last year either. Thank you. It's not just this year at this point. No, Jalen has not played well since 2022, in my opinion, since the Super Bowl run. And what makes this a four instead of a three is he has four more years left on his deal and then three more void years on top of that so his cap goes from 13

mil this year to 21 next year to 31 the next year then 41 then 47 so it gradually goes up throughout the four the four years on top of his current deal that he has and then once the contract year ends he has 97 million dollars in cap hits that are spread out through void years. And I was talking with Spielberger about this because I was like, hey, explain the void years to me and the advantage here. And he's like, okay, well, because I knew it helped you spread out cap stuff, but I wanted to know exactly what happens if you know you sign them to a new contract and what happens on the money that was on the void years how does it convert things like that and essentially what brad said was the idea is you are hoping that you sign these players to extensions by the time you get to the void years because if you do that then you can keep the void money that

you owe them from the previous contract you can keep that spread out throughout the cap so it's not a lot but if you cut them or they're not on the team anymore then all the more years accelerate to the first year so they would have like 97 million dollars in dead cap now if they were able to move on from him like post june brad was saying you can kind of spread it out between two years. And Jalen's contract, he was telling me, is a little different anyways in how the money is spread out. But all that to say, Jalen Hurts is not playing well right now. They're probably going to go through some coaching changes as well

this upcoming season. But Hurts, them moving on from Hurts is more off the table than it probably should be because of that contract. So that's why I landed on a four as well. That was it for me. My thought was, without that contract, this is a legitimate conversation right in the middle, depending on how he plays the rest of the year. But they're kind of locked in with him.

And you could already kind of see, if this year doesn't go the way the Eagles want it to, the story is going to be the Eagles hiring a coach that was brought in to get things right around Hurts, not the old, hey, they're moving on from Sirianni, they're probably going to redo all of this. This is Howie's show, and Howie, this is his guy, so if Sirianni can't get him to play better, then somebody else will be hired to do that and whether they succeed or not is a giant question but that's how it will go uh you saying it's a giant question

is a great transition into what I was about to say which is if Brian D'Abel gets fired fired from the Giants and Nick Sirianni gets fired from the Philadelphia Eagles if I'm the Eagles I'm hiring Brian D'. That's interesting. I think schematically, yes. Think about what he did with Josh Allen, right? Yeah. And how he was able to maximize what Josh was. Now, I'm not saying that Hurts is the same kind of athlete that Allen is.

It's a different quarterback here. But that dual threat ability, Dable was able to bring the best version of that out of Josh Allen he was Allen's a way better runner but yeah but at least Hurts is an advantageous runner like again like I think this I think I think I have a lot of respect for what Brian Dable does with offenses and quarterbacks and he's thrown into an offense with AJ Brown with Devontae Smith with a good offensive line I know there might be some changes on the offensive line but it's still a dang good offensive line I think Philly's be some changes on the offensive line, but it's still a dang good offensive line. I think Philly's offense cooks if Brian Dable is the head coach. I agree with you.

My biggest fear with that is the first time adversity hits because Hurts is struggling, Dable's not going to do the – like Dable's going to explode. And how you take that is how you take it. But Hurts is a guy to me that won't take that well. He'll throw it right back at him so that's the powder keg it's a big risk where i think you're right schematically i love it but from a personality match that's where they need to be so careful with this hire in my

opinion where you know who i would hire if he got fired i'd hire kevin Stefanski. That's who I would hire if I was the Eagles. All right. I think that personality is a little bit more Kevin O'Connell-ish, where it's like, okay, I'm very flatline. This is what we're going to do. It's going to be okay. And that's not always perfect, but there's a lot of good that comes with that. Dable's like, hey, you fucked up.

Like, whether you want to hear it or not, I'm going to tell you. And honestly, the NFL needs more of that sometimes these days. Yeah, I do think, I don't think Hurts is afraid of criticism though. Like even from like the Saban era, right? That's true. I mean, he got benched.

Right, like he's used to being pushed. And maybe it's a, so I'm not saying that what you're saying is wrong, but I wonder if Dable and Hurts bring the best out of each other. That, so I'm not saying that what you're saying is wrong, but I wonder if, I wonder if Dable and Hertz bring the best out of each other. That's what I'm saying. There's, it's a, it's a very wide range of outcomes higher. Okay. Which in the NFL, to be honest with you, that's how you should be hiring.

Because if you're not, you want the ceiling. Yeah. You want the ceiling. Hire for the ceiling. If it bottoms out, you're just like 80% of everyone else who cares draft it's also how teams should draft yeah most of the time that's sometimes most of the time sometimes you shouldn't take mckay beckton over tristan werfs but all right that one's fair that one's fair but you can say what you can see what lives rent free in my

brain go bucks baby a uh nf, I think, is the easiest division because, in my opinion, they're all DEFCON 5. I had all of them out of 5. The Lions, I can call for, and it's not anything against Jared Goff. It's just that they're a team that, and I know they kind of did this with Hendon Hooker, but if they drafted some day three guy again

with tremendous upside, but it's so raw, just to see what could happen, I wouldn't hate it. But this is really a division full of fives. Yeah, it's a division full of fives. And Jared Goff himself, you can't move on from him basically until 2027 with the extension that he signed. And he's fine. Right, and the lions very clearly can

absolutely cook with him at quarterback so this is defcon fives all around chicago you just have caleb williams we just talked about goff jordan love you signed him to the extension like he he's going to be the future of that team for a long time and then uh for the vikings sam donald's playing well and you have j.j mccarthy so mean, it's, again, defconflict. I mean, that one's maybe the easiest. We're big chilling in that division. NFC South. I have the Falcons as a five.

Yeah, the most five-iest of fives. Outside of the homes, this might be. Yeah. This really might be the five. I had the Bills at a four four and i had the falcons at a five think about that oh god it's ridiculous good for them although you can never have too many so you know i you know you just you just you just never know you never know uh yeah there are five obviously having penance with Kirk Cousins. I also have the Buccaneers as a five. I don't think there's a hint of them, maybe a day three quarterback,

but, I mean, they've got Trask. They even have Michael Pratt as, like, a practice squad guy for them. So, I don't think that the Buccaneers are going to be at all whatsoever in even like a depth quarterback conversation. So I have them as a five. I have the Carolina Panthers are DEFCON one for me. Yeah, pull the lever.

Okay, all right. So they're DEFCON one. Andy Dalton's a free agent after this season. So you don't even have the, well, I mean, you could, you know, stick with Dalton. If you want to stick with him, you would have to sign him to a new contract, which if he's playing well enough for that to be the case probably a little too expensive of a vet and you're kicking the can down the road maybe we

get to that point i don't know but i think this is a one i think you're absolutely taking every single look that you can at this upcoming quarterback class no matter what and then the saints playing well admittedly this is also before monday night football work for yes um i have them as a three okay what do you have them as item as a four okay but it was teetering close to a five because car is on the roster next year with his money and i i'm interested in to see what spencer rattler could do one day with this team so there are four just because i will never like derrick carr as a starting quarterback for a team on with like a significant cap hit i just always think every time you kind of get lifted up with him you get let down and i know that's harsh but it's just

the reality i'm very i think your whole family's blocked me on twitter so it doesn't really matter if i say it nice right uh it's like fans of the cars cars cars fine but you just always want more but this team this year you don't rather you know like he's like he's playing really well this year he's the number one graded quarterback in our system under pressure he's playing really well with clintiak. Yes, that's the key. Now, I will say this. He's kept him out of true dropbacks at such an insane rate that I give a real tip of the cap to Kubiak. And credit to Carr for running the offense.

Like, credit to him. The complicated part about this. Now, I forgot about Spencer Rattler. You know, I did. I forgot they had Spencer Rattler. So I think that's a good call out there. So I think that played heavily into this. This is probably a four.

I gave it a three. It should probably be a four, not only because of the respect to Derek Carr, but also his contract situation. He's got two more years after this year. The problem with Carr and the reason why I ended up putting it as three is because his cap hit jumps from $12 million this year to $51 million next year and then $61 million the year after, and then he has three more void years on top of that it was a doozy so maybe that should be more evidence to me just saying hey it's a four

they're gonna roll with car but this year is definitely this year was always the decision making year for derrick car like because the cap absolutely shoots up i can't remember what the oh man what are the guarantees i think uh i think they fall off after this year though i think he gets movable yeah it wasn't the structure of it wasn't saying that only 60 million was fully guaranteed so so so they can move on next year and it's basically an even split like the cap number is 51 mil on the cap but then then they they still save like 1 million dollars if they if they cut them so there's not a lot of guaranteed money there and then they can save almost 30 million dollars if they were to cut him the year after that so this is sort of the decision making time for him but then he got 17

million in the void years that accelerate obviously if he is not on the team like we mentioned so there's that kind of part that goes into conversation but but but but but all that to say he is playing really well this season he's playing well enough to where they're they're probably going to give him a shot next year and even if they don't they got spencer rattler i have it as defcon 3 i should have added it as a defcon 4 at the worst maybe even a defcon 5 honestly because i don't even know if this team's going to be looking at quarterback when it comes to next season so yeah it was a very questionable four for me leaning towards a five. The Saints, yeah, they have their quarterback room.

I had the Bucs as a four. I don't like Kyle Trask as their backup personally. I love what Baker's done to rebuild his career. I wouldn't mind seeing the Bucs get an interesting round three to five quarterback in this draft behind Baker. You know, and again, it sort of depends. Like if we're in a draft where we've got some interesting quarterback names who are falling because that's what I'm just the overall outlook. I could see it, but it's a five because it's Baker's team, you know,

but I said it's Baker's team. I think, I think day three at the earliest is when they could look at a QB. And if you at home are saying okay well that should make it a four then i'm then i would make it a four but it's it's baker may find you in well i mean like it just kind of depends where the scale is i i don't even i don't even think there's guarantee that like they would take one on day three at this point just no there's no god and again picking up michael pratt um when the packers cut him so uh all right we got one division left

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Last division, NFC West here. I have one DEFCON 5. Oh, I had three. three oh you have three yeah cardinals niners seahawks five five five no i guess i should have the niners as a five i should have a nine yeah it's brock tober it is it is brock tober it is brock tober he caught that l yesterday from the confirm the aries are on the cardinals but um if they had a kicker they probably don't to be honest with you. I have the Cardinals as DEFCON 5 because it's Kyler Murray.

I should have the San Francisco 49ers as DEFCON 5. Brock Purdy, it's the best version of himself. I have been a Brock Purdy skeptic. I will sit here on this podcast and absolutely admit that. I have been extremely slow to recognizing the Mr. Irrelevant and somebody that I thought was just a nice college quarterback

to him ascending truly to good NFL levels, but he is, he's a top 10 quarterback at this point. And I know that that's, that could be crazy for a lot of people to say. It's crazy for me to admit, honestly, I'm telling you where I'm coming from here, but he plays his position very well and he's very smart and he has mastery of that offense. And, um, I got to give him his credit. So this is DEFCON 5. He's got two more years left on his rookie deal, but he's up for an extension this summer if they want to sign him to one. And I think that they're going to sooner rather than later. I think that he is going to be their guy.

I think Kyler Murray's obviously locked in. I love Geno. I have the Seattle Seahawks as DEFCON 4. Okay. And I would love to have it as a 5. But he's got two years left on his deal cap shoots up from 26 mil to 38 mil next season are they cool with riding that in or are they gonna they're gonna come up with an extension I don't know it felt like it was sort of up in the air when Pete

Carroll was still there as the head coach maybe maybe Mike McDonald thinks differently maybe Mike McDonald gets in there he's like no no this is our guy. You sign him to another three year extension right now. Cause I think Gino is playing great football. I want that to be very clear. I just have it as a four because I kind of feels like they've maybe been a little bit slow to talk about the future with Gino at this point in time. So I love Gino, but that's why I had them as DEFCON four.

Yeah, they were a five for me. I think, I think Gino has been incredible this year. I love him in Ryan Grubb's offense. I think it's a perfect fit. He's cost-effective. I know you mentioned the cap hit going up.

He's still cost-effective. What you're getting from Geno is still good value. And they have Sam Howell behind them. Right. I don't think the Seahawks should. I think the Seahawks need to build an offensive line is what they need to do. The line's been bad.

I didn't realize this. They are fourth in the NFL in highest pressure percentage this season. They pass above expected, I think at the highest rate. So I'm sure that doesn't help, but the line's not good either. So, and injured, but that plays a part into not being good the only team that wasn't a five for me was the rams

at a three okay i also had the rams as a three because every time i'm like hey it's probably time for sean mcvay to turn the page matt stafford's like i'm not retiring so and he's really good i'm not fucking leaving uh yeah exactly so there are three for me because at some point you got to get the next guy uh it's not stetson bennett it's not stetson bennett i can tell you that it's not going to be stetson bennett i'm very confident in saying that it's not stetson bennett so so there are three for me so i think that there are also a three stafford's got three more years left on his deal it is cuttable after this year um you get a little bit of relief after this with with with cap saving but I think that that's

probably less of the story the bigger part of the story is they have the number five overall pick currently as the draft stands today now obviously it's just after week five there's a lot of football left to be played but if the Rams are sitting in a situation where they can have the top QB on the board and they like one, I feel like they should do it. Yeah, I agree. You know? So that's why they're a three for me.

Yeah, and the reality is, I think Stafford's options will be retire or keep playing because he's not going to want to go start somewhere no no no no no no this is the money the money will clear yeah this is last they'll retire and it's like okay cool the money's off the books yeah so I I've said this for a while and I do not think it's going to happen I think the best place for Shadir Sanders to go is the Rams. I would love it. I'd love it. I think he would. I think McVay would be a good coach for him from the relationship standpoint and the X's and O's standpoint. I think he would teach Shadur a lot. I think Shadur would be in an environment that

takes the spotlight off him for a little bit if Stafford is still there. And I think it's a player friendly environment, but also he would settle into the NFL at the right pace. And I have a really bad feeling he's going to be drafted as a savior to a team like the Raiders, and it could completely blow up because it'll go too fast. If he gets drafted to the Rams, he can legally change his name to Shredduer Sanders for what he's going to do to defenses. You see, folks, that's why you listen to minute number 58 on the podcast.

That's why you do it right there. Because you're not getting that horrendous pun anywhere else but right here on NFL SC. Let us know what you thought of our thoughts of the quarterback class and the quarterback situation that we've talked about for every single team here in the NFL. Like we said, you guys, for your favorite team,

you're watching these quarterbacks very intently every single week. And you also have a lot of context when it comes to the talk over the summer, training camp, preseason, all this stuff. So we would love to hear from you. Let us know what DEFCON rating. Remember, one's the worst, five is the best. Let us know what DEFCON rating your team is. Fire off in the comments.

That's the best way to do that. YouTube.com backslash at nfl stock exchange if you are listening on audio only you could hit us up on twitter and instagram and give us your takes there at timpabay trey at connor j rogers um yeah i think that's about it connor you got anything else before we get out here no um fun show because once again we're always trying to lay the foundation for the giraffe that's the goal of this show and this is an episode where now you come out of it and go, OK, I know the teams I can count on one hand that are all in on the quarterback class. I know the teams that can go either way with the way the rest of the NFL season plays out and the teams that instead will look to build their roster around the stability they have under center as it stands today. So, yeah, obviously we've talked about the NFL draft side of things with with what we think sort of of this quarterback class but it also comes down to desperation of what these teams

think uh and how desperate they could be for a quarterback as to where these guys might end up going in the draft even if you think it's a down draft if the team needs a quarterback that's what they're gonna do they're gonna pick a quarterback so that's part of what goes in this conversation next episode we'll probably get back to some prospect profiles by the way if you don't have a pff plus subscription go get one right now because we got more than 200 players in the Mock Draft Simulator right now. You can go through five rounds of the Mock Draft Simulator. You can click on all these players' profiles.

You can see their PFF grades, how they're doing this season. And I have all 210 on there ranked for you guys to see as well. We'll probably talk about a couple of them when we get to the Wednesday episode too. I'm Trevor Sycamore. That's Connor Rogers. Thank you guys so much for watching and listening to the NFL Stock Exchange Podcast. See y' you next time.